عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]چکیده [English]
Climate change phenomenon is an important environmental challenge of the world. Increasing extension of greenhouse gases and remote relationship phenomena accelerate the speed f climate change. Changes in precipitation level, drought occurrence and changes in the level of surface and groundwater resources are the recognized consequences of climate change. In order to study consequences of climate change on agricultural production in Shiraz County, three well rings in Shiraz plain were selected. Mean statistics of water level in wells were regressed on the year during 1978-2008. Using annual statistic of precipitation during 1958-2008 and standard precipitation index (SPI), the probability of dry year incidence was determined. Effects of 5 pumping scenarios with consideration to the probability of dry year incidence were assessed, using two-stage stochastic programming. Results showed that water levels at the desired level of agricultural wells has significant decrease 0.4 percent (p=0.034). The long-run loss of income and farm income under the mild climate change and dry years were 4.5 and 6.4 percent. The short-term loss of income and agricultural income in the same scenarios were estimated from 54 and 30 percent to 74 and 85 percent, respectively. Agricultural water use in the short and long term was estimated less than the status quo. Reduction in water use leads to reduction in yield and farm income in the study area, however, prevents the long-term damages to crop production levels and underground water resources. Ultimately, implementing policies to improve farmer's incentives to sustainable use of water resources are recommended.