مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی
با همکاری انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران

عوامل تعیین‌کننده مشارکت در بازار شلتوک و شدت آن در ایران: شواهدی مبتنی بر مدل رگرسیون کسری دو بخشی تعمیم‌یافته

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

فاطمه حبیبی نوده 1
علی فیروززارع 1
محمد قربانی 2
فلاویو بوچیا 3

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 مرکز تحقیقات سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 گروه مطالعات اقتصادی و حقوقی، دانشگاه پارتنوپ ناپل، ناپل، ایتالیا

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2026.96839.1407
چکیده
برنج به‌عنوان دومین محصول راهبردی پس از گندم، نقشی محوری در پایداری معیشت روستاییان و تأمین درآمد کشاورزان ایران ایفا می­کند. با وجود این جایگاه، موانع ساختاری، نهادی و مرتبط با بازار، همچنان تجاری­سازی مؤثر را برای تولیدکنندگان شلتوک با محدودیت مواجه ساخته است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی عوامل تعیین‌کننده تصمیم به مشارکت و شدت مشارکت در بازار شلتوک در استان گلستان انجام شد. داده­ها در فصل زراعی ۱۴۰3–۱۴۰2 با استفاده از پرسشنامه­ای ساختاریافته، از ۱۵۰ تولیدکننده شلتوک جمع­آوری گردید. تحلیل داده­ها با به کارگیری مدل رگرسیون کسری دو بخشی تعمیم یافته (GTP-FRM) صورت گرفت که به‌طور همزمان تصمیم دودویی مشارکت و سهم شلتوک عرضه شده به بازار را برآورد می­کند و در عین حال ماهیت کران دار متغیر وابسته و وابستگی احتمالی بین مراحل مختلف مشارکت را نیز مد­نظر قرار می­دهد. متغیرهای توضیحی شامل ویژگی­های سرمایه انسانی (تحصیلات و بعد خانوار)، دارایی­های سرمایه­ای (سطح زیر کشت و مکانیزاسیون) و متغیرهای نهادی و دسترسی به بازار (خدمات شالیکوبی، تأسیسات انبارداری، اطلاعات بازار و کانال­های بازاریابی) بودند. یافته­ها حاکی از آن است که ۶۴ % از کشاورزان در بازار شلتوک مشارکت دارند و به‌طور میانگین ۴۹ % از ارزش ناخالص تولید به فروش می­رسد. تحصیلات رابطه منفی با مشارکت در بازار شلتوک دارد که بیانگر تغییر راهبردی به سوی ارزش افزایی است؛ به گونه­ای که کشاورزان دارای سطح تحصیلات بالاتر، تمایل دارند محصول شلتوک خود را فرآوری و به‌صورت برنج به بازار عرضه نمایند. در مقابل، افزایش سطح زیر کشت و مازاد تولید، به‌طور معناداری احتمال مشارکت و شدت آن را افزایش می­دهد. متغیرهای نهادی و بازار نیز نقش­های متمایزی ایفا می­کنند: دسترسی به اطلاعات بازار، احتمال مشارکت را افزایش می­دهد، در حالی‌که دسترسی به تسهیلات شالیکوبی، احتمال مشارکت در بازار شلتوک را کاهش و می­تواند باعث افزایش مشارکت در بازار برنج شود. به‌طور کلی، نتایج نشان می­دهد که تجاری سازی در استان گلستان نه تنها تحت تأثیر ظرفیت تولید، بلکه تحت تأثیر راهبردهای ارزش افزایی و ملاحظات هزینه­های مبادله در چارچوب سیاست­ها و ساختارهای بازار موجود شکل می­گیرد. از این رو، طراحی و اجرای سیاست­هایی که بر بهبود زیرساختهای فرآوری روستایی، تقویت سامانه­های اطلاعات بازار، افزایش مازاد تولید و کاهش موانع نهادی متمرکز باشند، می­تواند به‌طور مؤثرتری از مشارکت و تجاری‌سازی پایدار در میان تولیدکنندگان شلتوک استان گلستان حمایت کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

برنج
محدودیت‌های نهادی
مدل‌های کسری
مشارکت در بازار
هزینه‌های مبادله
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Determinants of Paddy Market Participation and Intensity in Iran: Evidence from a Generalized Two-Part Fractional Regression Model

نویسندگان English

F. Habibinodeh 1
A. Firoozzare 1
M. Ghorbani 2
F. Boccia 3
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Center for Remote Sensing and GIS Research, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Economic and Legal Studies, Parthenope University of Naples, Naples, Italy
چکیده English

 Rice, as the second most important crop after wheat, plays a central role in sustaining rural livelihoods and generating income for farmers in Iran. Despite its importance, structural, institutional, and market-related constraints continue to limit effective commercialization among paddy producers. This study aimed to identify the determinants of both the participation decision and participation intensity in the paddy market of Golestan province. Data were collected during the 2023–2024 cropping season from 150 paddy farmers using a structured and validated questionnaire. The analysis employed a generalized two-part fractional regression model (GTP-FRM), which jointly estimates the binary participation decision and the value-based share of paddy marketed while accounting for the bounded nature of the dependent variable and potential interdependence between stages. The explanatory variables included human capital characteristics (education and household size), asset endowment (cultivated area and mechanization) and institutional and market access variables (milling services, storage facilities, market information, and marketing channels). The results show that 64% of farmers participate in the paddy market, and on average 49% of the gross value of production is sold. Education is negatively associated with paddy market participation, reflecting a strategic shift toward value addition, as more educated farmers tend to process paddy into rice rather than sell raw paddy. In contrast, larger farm size and greater surplus significantly increase participation probability and participation intensity. Institutional and market factors also play differentiated roles: access to market information enhances participation probability, while access to milling facilities encourages rice marketing instead of paddy sales. Overall, the findings suggest that commercialization in Golestan province is shaped not only by production capacity but also by value-addition strategies and transaction-cost considerations within existing policy and market structures. Policies aimed at improving rural processing infrastructure, strengthening market information systems, enhancing surplus generation, and reducing institutional barriers can more effectively support market-oriented behavior and sustainable commercialization among paddy producers in Golestan province.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Fractional model
Institutional constraints
Market participation
Rice
Transaction costs

Authors retain the copyright. This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
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مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی
دوره 40، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 71
تابستان 1405
صفحه 236-211

  • تاریخ دریافت 13 آذر 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 23 اردیبهشت 1405
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