با همکاری انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران
نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی
نویسنده
مؤسسه پژوهشهای برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسنده English
Food security, as a key pillar of sustainable development and social welfare, is particularly sensitive to price fluctuations and income volatility in rural communities. In Iran, recent inflationary pressures and declining household purchasing power have highlighted the need for a scientific analysis of food demand patterns and the evaluation of policy interventions. This study aims to provide a policy-oriented analysis of food demand patterns among rural households in Iran and to assess the potential impacts of alternative policy interventions. Data were drawn from the 2023 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, and the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) was employed to estimate consumption patterns while accounting for theoretical constraints and household demographic characteristics. Eight main food groups—cereals, proteins, dairy, oils and fats, fruits and nuts, vegetables and legumes, sugar and confectionery, and spices and beverages-were analyzed. Results indicate that cereals and proteins function as necessities with low income and price elasticities, whereas vegetables and legumes exhibit more luxury-like characteristics, with consumption increasing at higher income levels. Cross-price elasticities reveal both substitution and complementarity among food groups, providing important insights for the design of pricing and fiscal policies. Demographic factors, including household size, education, and age, significantly influence consumption patterns. Welfare analyses further show that low-income rural households are the most vulnerable to rising food prices. Overall, the findings not only corroborate previous domestic and international studies but also provide new evidence on the sensitivity of food demand to income and price changes in Iran. Based on the estimated income and own-price elasticities, the findings suggest that food subsidy reforms should focus on staple goods with low income and price elasticities to protect low-income rural households, while targeted income support and price stabilization policies are more appropriate for food groups exhibiting high income and own-price responsiveness, such as vegetables and legumes. Furthermore, the presence of significant cross-price substitution effects implies that price interventions in one food group may have spillover effects on the consumption of other foods, which should be considered in policy design.
کلیدواژهها English
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