بررسی کارایی و ظرفیت صادراتی محصولات زراعی ایران: کاربرد الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

صادرات کشاورزی ایران در سال‌های اخیر رشد قابل توجهی داشته است. در این میان محصولات زراعی (کد 07) به دومین گروه مهم صادرات بخش کشاورزی ایران در سال‌های اخیر تبدیل شده است. با این وجود مطالعات اندکی به بررسی ظرفیت‌های صادراتی محصولات زراعی پرداخته‌اند. از این رو هدف این مطالعه بررسی مولفه‌های اثرگذار بر صادرات محصولات زراعی و سنجش کارایی صادرات ایران است. به منظور دستیابی به هدف، الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی براساس داده‌های تابلویی متوازن برای 21 کشور در دوره زمانی 2021-2001 برآورد شد. نتایج بیانگر این است که اندازه اقتصادی و فیزیکی بازار هدف اثری مثبت و معنی‌د‌ار بر صادرات محصولات زراعی ایران داشته‌اند. همچنین مرز مشترک میان ایران و شرکای تجاری و تحریم‌های اقتصادی دارای اثری مثبت و معنی‌دار بر صادرات محصولات زراعی بوده است، در حالی‌که فاصله جغرافیایی میان ایران و کشورهای واردکننده اثری منفی بر صادرات داشته است. نتایج کارایی نشان داد که در دوره زمانی 2015-2021 ایران در هیچ بازار هدفی دارای کارایی 100 درصدی نبوده است و در چهار کشور افغانستان، امارات متحده عربی، کانادا و عراق با کارایی بیش از 50 درصد روبرو بوده است. براساس نتایج، ایران بیشترین پتانسیل صادرات محصولات زراعی را در عراق دارد. در نتیجه، با توجه به اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار مرز مشترک و ظرفیت‌های بالای شرکای تجاری هم‌مرز با ایران، پیشنهاد می‌شود که کشورهای تجاری دارای مرز مشترک مانند عراق در اولویت صادرات محصولات زراعی قرار گیرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Efficiency and Capacity of Iran’s Cropland Products Exports: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Aminizadeh 1
  • M. Rafati 2
1 Agricultural economics department, Ferdowsi university of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Institute of Planning Research, Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Iran’s agricultural exports have grown significantly in recent years. Cropland products (HS07) have become the second most important group in Iran’s agricultural exports over the last years. However, few studies have investigated the export potentials of cropland products. Therefore, this study aims to determine the main factors of Iran’s cropland products exports and calculate the export efficiency and potential in the trading partners. For this aim, the stochastic frontier gravity model is estimated based on balanced panel data covering 21 importing countries over the period of 2001 to 2021. The results indicated that economic and physical size of importing countries have positive and significant effect on the exports of Iran’s cropland products. In addition, common border between Iran and trading partners and economic sanctions have also positive and significant effect on the cropland products exports, while geographical distance between Iran and importing countries has negatively effects on the exports. The results of export efficiency showed that Iran does not have 100 percent efficiency in any destination market over the period of 2015 to 2021. Iran has an export efficiency of more than 50 percent only in Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Canada and Iraq. According to the results, Iran has the highest potential for exports of cropland products in Iraq. Hence, considering the high potentials in neighboring countries and significantly positive effect of common border partners, it is suggested that trading countries with common border like Iraq should be a top priority for the exports of cropland products.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural exports
  • Trade efficiency
  • Trade potential

مراجع

  1. Abdullahi, N.M., Huo, X., Zhang, Q., & BolanleAzeez, A. (2021). Determinants and potential of agri-food trade using the stochastic frontier gravity model: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Sage Open, 11(4), 21582440211065770. ‏https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440211065770
  2. Abdullahi, N.M., Zhang, Q., Shahriar, S., Irshad, M.S., Ado, A.B., & Huo, X. (2022). Examining the determinants and efficiency of China’s agricultural exports using a stochastic frontier gravity model. Plos One, 17(9), e0274187.‏ https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274187
  3. Ahmad Hamidi, H.N., Khalid, N., Karim, Z.A., & Zainuddin, M.R.K. (2022). Technical efficiency and export potential of the world palm oil market. Agriculture, 12(11), 1918.‏ https://doi.org/10.3390/ agriculture12111918
  4. Aigner, D., Lovell, C.K., & Schmidt, P. (1977). Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models. Journal of Econometrics, 6(1), 21-37. ‏https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(77)90052-5
  5. Aminizadeh, M., Rafiee, H., Riahi, A., & Mehrparvar Hosseini, E. (2020). Assessing the role of institutional quality of Iran and its trade partners on Iran’s agricultural products exports. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 51(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.22059/ijaedr.2019.258788.668610
  6. Anderson, J.E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170-192.‏ https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455214
  7. Arif, I. (2022). Educational attainment, corruption, and migration: An empirical analysis from a gravity model. Economic Modelling, 110, 105802.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105802
  8. Armstrong, S.P. (2007). Measuring trade and trade potential: A survey. Crawford School Asia Pacific Economic Paper, (368).‏ http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1760426
  9. Assoua, J.E., Molua, E.L., Nkendah, R., Choumbou, R.F.D., & Tabetando, R. (2022). The effect of sanitary and phytosanitary measures on Cameroon's cocoa exports: An application of the gravity model. Heliyon, 8(1).‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08754
  10. Atif, R.M., Haiyun, L., & Mahmood, H. (2017). Pakistan's agricultural exports, determinants and its potential: an application of stochastic frontier gravity model. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 26(3): 257-276. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2016.1243724
  11. Atif, R.M., Mahmood, H., Haiyun, L., & Mao, H. (2019). Determinants and efficiency of Pakistan’s chemical products’ exports: An application of stochastic frontier gravity model. PLOS ONE, 14(5), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217210
  12. Badarinza, C., Ramadorai, T., & Shimizu, C. (2022). Gravity, counterparties, and foreign investment. Journal of Financial Economics, 145(2), 132-152.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.09.011
  13. Battese, G.E., & Coelli, T.J. (1988). Prediction of firm-level technical efficiencies with a generalized frontier production function and panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 38(3), 387-399.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(88)90053-X
  14. Belotti, F., Daidone, S., Ilardi, G., & Atella, V. (2013). Stochastic frontier analysis using Stata. The Stata Journal, 13(4), 719-758.‏ https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.252689
  15. Bojnec, Š.,& Fertő, I. (2009). Agro-food trade competitiveness of Central European and Balkan countries. Food Policy, 34(5), 417-425.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2009.01.003
  16. Centre d'Etudes Prospective et d'Informations Internationals. (2023). CEPII Database. Available at http://www.cepii.fr/
  17. Doan, T.N., & Xing, Y. (2018). Trade efficiency, free trade agreements and rules of origin. Journal of Asian Economics, 55, 33-41.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.007
  18. Egger, P. (2002). An econometric view on the estimation of gravity models and the calculation of trade potentials. World Economy, 25(2), 297-312. ‏https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00432
  19. Engemann, H., Jafari, Y., & Heckelei, T. (2023). Institutional quality and the duration of agri‐food trade flows. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 74(1), 135-154. ‏https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12491
  20. European Commission. (2010). Trade, growth and world affairs. Trade policy as a core component of the EU's 2020 strategy. European Economic and Social Committee, France.
  21. Fertö, I., & Hubbard, L.J. (2003). Revealed comparative advantage and competitiveness in Hungarian agri-food sectors. World Economy, 26(2), 247-259. ‏https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00520
  22. Ghorbani, M., & Aminizadeh, M. (2020). Investigating the effective factors on Iranian date exports to European Union. Agricultural Economics, 14(2), 131-153. https://doi.org/10.22034/iaes.2021.135209.1782
  23. Ha, L.T. (2023). The role of financial development in enhancing trades in environmental goods: International insights from 119 countries. Journal of Commodity Markets, 29, 100301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2022.100301
  24. Hajivand, S., Moghaddasi, R., Zeraatkish, Y., & Mohammadinejad, A. (2020). An application of stochastic frontier gravity approach (the case of Iran's potential agricultural exports). International Journal of Analysis and Applications, 18(3), 482-492.‏
  25. Hejazi, M., Grant, J.H., & Peterson, E. (2022). Trade impact of maximum residue limits in fresh fruits and vegetables. Food Policy, 106, 102203. ‏https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102203
  26. Hosseini, S.S., Aminizadeh, M., & Yazdani, S. (2018). Assessing the implications of tax-trade policies on soil erosion; Application of multi-sector general equilibrium model. Agricultural Economics Research, 10(37), 41-64. (In Persian with English abstract)
  27. International Trade Center. (2023). trademap.org.
  28. Isaiah Zayone, T., Henneberry, S.R., & Radmehr, R. (2020). Effects of agricultural, manufacturing, and mineral exports on Angola’s economic growth. Energies, 13(6), 1494.‏ https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061494
  29. Kahouli, B., & Maktouf, S. (2015). The determinants of FDI and the impact of the economic crisis on the implementation of RTAs: A static and dynamic gravity model. International Business Review, 24(3), 518-529.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2014.10.009
  30. Kalirajan, K. (2007). Regional cooperation and bilateral trade flows: an empirical measurement of resistance. The International Trade Journal, 21(2), 85-107. ‏https://doi.org/10.1080/08853900701266555
  31. Liu, Z., & Zhou, X. (2023). Can direct subsidies or tax incentives improve the R&D efficiency of the manufacturing industry in China?. Processes, 11(1), 181. ‏https://doi.org/10.3390/pr11010181
  32. Manzoor, W., Safdar, N., & Mahmood, H.Z. (2021). A gravity model analysis of international migration from BRIC to OECD countries using Poisson Pseudo-maximum likelihood Approach. Heliyon, 7(6), e07357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07357
  33. Mehrparvar Hosseini, E., Aminizadeh, M., Rafiee, H., Riahi, A., & Bastani, M. (2013). Designing of Iranian dates trade model; Application of trade advantages and theory of market structure. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 7(2), 19-46. (In Persian with English abstract)
  34. Mohammadi, H., Aminizadeh, M., & Aghasafari, H. (2020). Investigating the Iran’s export efficiency in pistachio target markets: Application of stochastic frontier gravity model. Agricultural Economics & Development 34(1): 1-18. (In Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22067/JEAD2.VI0.83705
  35. Mohammadi, H., Aminizadeh, M., & Aghasafari, H. (2022). Measuring the export efficiency of Iran’s saffron. Saffron Agronomy and Technology 10(1): 69-83. (In Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22048/jsat.2022.297596.1432
  36. Mortazavi, S.A., & Mojtahedi, F. (2016). Exchange rates translation effect on export price of dates Iran: Application Model ARDL. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 46(4), 719-727. (In Persian with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.22059/ijaedr.2016.58027
  37. Nasir, S., & Kalirajan, K. (2016). Information and communication technology-enabled modern services export performances of Asian economies. Asian Development Review, 33(1), 1-27.‏ https://doi.org/10.1162/ADEV_a_00059
  38. Natale, F., Borrello, A., & Motova, A. (2015). Analysis of the determinants of international seafood trade using a gravity model. Marine Policy, 60, 98-106.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.05.016
  39. Nguyen, D.D. (2022). Determinants of Vietnam's rice and coffee exports: using stochastic frontier gravity model. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 29(1), 19-34. ‏https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-05-2020-0054
  40. Nilsson, L. (2000). Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria. European Journal of Political Economy, 16(4), 807-827.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(99)00060-9
  41. Noviyani, D.S., Na, W., & Irawan, T. (2019). Indonesian export efficiency: a stochastic frontier gravity model approach. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, 6(1), 488-497.‏ https://doi.org/10.32628/IJSRSET1196190
  42. Okara, A. (2023). Does foreign direct investment promote political stability? Evidence from developing economies. Economic Modelling, 123, 106249.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106249
  43. Pawlak, K., & Smutka, L. (2022). Does Poland’s agri-food industry gain comparative advantage in trade with non-EU countries? Evidence from the transatlantic market. Plos One, 17(9), e0274692.‏ https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0274692
  44. Ravishankar, G., & Stack, M.M. (2014). The gravity model and trade efficiency: a stochastic frontier analysis of eastern European countries’ potential trade. The World Economy, 37(5): 690-704. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12144
  45. Samore, G. (2015). Sanctions against Iran: a guide to targets, terms, and timetables. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 28-29.‏
  46. Shepherd, B., & Wilson, N.L. (2013). Product standards and developing country agricultural exports: The case of the European Union. Food Policy, 42, 1-10.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.06.003
  47. Tandra, H., & Suroso, A.I. (2023). The determinant, efficiency, and potential of Indonesian palm oil downstream export to the global market. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2189671.‏ https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2189671
  48. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. Twentieth Century Fund, New York.
  49. Ülengin, F., Çekyay, B., Palut, P.T., Ülengin, B., Kabak, Ö., Özaydın, Ö., & Ekici, Ş.Ö. (2015). Effects of quotas on Turkish foreign trade: A gravity model. Transport Policy, 38, 1-7.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.09.006
  50. World Bank. (2023). World Bank Database. Available at https://databank.worldbank.org.
  51. Xu, H., & Nam, N.H. (2023). Determinants of Vietnam's potential for agricultural export trade to Asia-Pacific economic cooperation (APEC) members. Heliyon, 9(2).‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13105
  52. Xu, J., Lu, C., Ruan, S., & Xiong, N.N. (2022). Estimating the efficiency and potential of China's steel products export to countries along the “Belt and Road” under interconnection: An application of extended stochastic frontier gravity model. Resources Policy, 75, 102513.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102513
ارسال نظر در مورد این مقاله
CAPTCHA Image

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 25 تیر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 29 مرداد 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 29 مرداد 1402

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار