تعیین‌کننده‌های صادرات و تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

1 بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

2 دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

ایران با هدف کاهش وابستگی به درآمدهای حاصل از صادرات نفت و گاز، قصد دارد صادرات غیرنفتی را گسترش دهد. در همین راستا، این پژوهش سعی دارد عوامل تعیین­کننده صادرات و تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران را بررسی کند. برای صادرات از مدل جاذبه و داده­های ترکیبی سال­های 1997تا 2017 استفاده شد. هم­چنین تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش­های آن با استفاده از داده­های دوره 1978 تا 2018 مطالعه شد. نتایج مدل جاذبه نشان داد متغیر فاصله بر میزان صادرات اثر منفی دارد. در حالی که اثر متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران و کشورهای واردکننده مطابق انتظار، مثبت به­دست آمد. یافته­ها نشان داد یک درصد افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه ایران موجب افزایش صادرات محصولات کشاورزی به میزان 42/3 درصد خواهد شد. اما ضریب به­دست آمده برای تولید ناخالص کشورهای واردکننده از اهمیت آماری پایینی برخوردار بود. هم­چنین مشخص گردید افزایش جمعیت کشورهای واردکننده موجب افزایش تقاضا برای صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران خواهد شد. درجه بازبودن اقتصاد اثر مثبت و معنی­داری بر صادرات نشان داد. ضریب متغیر نرخ ارز واقعی در حدود 9/0 به­دست آمد و مشخص گردید تغییرات صادرات با تغییرات نرخ ارز هم جهت است. تحریم­های شدید بر صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران اثر منفی نشان داد اما تحریم­های کم، فاقد اثر معنی­دار ارزیابی شد. هم­چنین نتایج نشان داد متغیر بحران جهانی اقتصاد می­تواند موجب کاهش صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران شود. در تصریح تراز تجاری مشخص گردید ارزش­افزوده بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش­های آن بر بهبود تراز تجاری اثر مثبت دارد. اما اثر نرخ ارز واقعی بر تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش­های زراعت و دام و طیور منفی ارزیابی شد که نشان­دهنده تأیید تئوری منحنی J است. اما برای زیربخش باغبانی مورد تأیید قرار نگرفت. نوسانات نرخ ارز با استفاده از دو متغیر تغییرات مثبت و منفی این متغیر، و هم­چنین اثر ARCH حاصل از تخمین مدل خودتوضیح میانگین متحرک در مدل لحاظ شد. اثر این دو متغیر ضمن تفاوت در اندازه ضریب، الزاماً هم­جهت نبود. اثر متغیر درجه باز­بودن اقتصاد بر تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش باغبانی مثبت ارزیابی شد. به این معنی که تولید آنها مبتنی بر مزیت نسبی است. در حالی­که اثر این متغیر بر تراز تجاری زیربخش­های زراعت و دام­وطیور منفی به­دست آمد. هم­چنین پیامد تحریم­ها بر تراز تجاری منفی ارزیابی شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determinants of Agricultural Export and Trade Balance in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • S. Zolanvari Shirazy 1
  • Z, Farajzadeh 2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University,
2 Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Iran attempts to expand the non-oil exportsfor diminishing the dependency on oil export income. This research tries to examine the export and trade balance of Iran's agricultural sector. Accordingly, the gravity model was used for export, applying panel data from 1997 to 2017. Also, the trade balance of Iran's total agricultural and the related sectors’commodities was examined. It should be noted that for the trade balance, time series data from 1978 to 2018 were used. The results of the gravity model show a negative effect for the variable of distance. The coefficients of Iran’s per capita GDP and also the GDP of trading partners are positive, as expected. It was found that a one percent increase in the per capita GDP of Iran causes a rise of 3.42 percent in the export of agricultural products; however,that of importing countries haslow statistical significance. Based on the coefficient obtained for the population, an increase in the population of the importing countries raises the demand for Iran's agricultural products.The degree of trade openness revealed a positive and significant effect on the export of agricultural products. The coefficient for the real exchange rate was found to be around 0.9 percent. It was also found that the volatility of the exchange rate is related directly to the export of agricultural products. Comprehensive sanctions have a negative and significant effect, while less restricting sanctions have an insignificant effect on the export of agricultural products. The global economic crisis has also had a dampening effect on exports. For trade balance, the results show that the value added of the agriculture has a positive effect on the trade balance of entire agriculture and sectors. The real exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance of agricultural commodities as a whole and livestock and agronomy sectors, confirming the J-Curve theory while it was not supported for the horticultural sector. Also, the variable of exchange rate volatility was included in the model using two measures of positive and negative series of exchange rate changes and the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect, but their effect on the trade balance was not the same in terms of both the direction and statistical significance. The trade openness for the agricultural and horticultural sector was found with a positive coefficient, indicating that their production is based on comparative advantage. However, for the sectors of agronomy and livestock, it illustrated a negative effect. Sanctions have also harmed the trade balance.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade balance
  • Export
  • Gravity model
  • Agricultural Sector

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