بررسی حباب قیمتی گوشت در ایران: کاربرد مدل فضا-حالت

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• زینب شکوهی ¹
• محمد حسن طرازکار ²

¹ اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز

² اقتصاد کشاورزی- دانشگاه شیراز

10.22067/jead.2022.72570.1083

چکیده

حباب‌های قیمتی و نوسانات قیمت محصولات کشاورزی از چالش‌های مهمی است که می‌تواند رفاه مصرف‌کنندگان و تولیدکنندگان را به طور قابل توجهی تحت تاثیر قرار دهد. بنابراین، در این مطالعه، حباب‌های قیمت در سه محصول پروتئینی اصلی، یعنی گوشت گوسفند، گوشت گاو و مرغ، با استفاده از مدل فضا-حالت بر اساس فیلتر کالمن با استفاده از داده‌های ماهانه از سال 1380 تا 1399 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در این راستا، به ترتیب قیمت جو، قیمت کنسانتره، جوجه یکروزه و ذرت را به عنوان نهاده‌های مهم مورد استفاده برای تولید گوشت گوسفند، گاو و مرغ در نظر گرفته شد. همچنین از نرخ واقعی ارز و قیمت واقعی نفت در مدل استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان دهنده تفاوت ساختارهای در حباب‌های قیمتی مثبت و منفی، دوره و تعداد وقوع و فروپاشی حباب در موراد مورد مطالعه بود. همچنین بر خلاف قیمت مرغ، به این نتیجه رسیدیم که حباب قیمت گوشت گوسفند و گوساله نسبت به سطح قیمت قابل توجه نیست. در بازار گوشت مرغ علت اصلی حباب‌های قیمتی را می‌توان به دلیل اختلال در روند بازاریابی این محصولات، عدم شفافیت اطلاعات و دخالت‌های متناقض دولت در بازار دانست. برای مقابله با این مشکل، پیاده‌سازی اطلاعات بازار بصورت تجمیع شده از طریق فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات می‌تواند ابزاری کارآمد در جهت حل چالش مذکور در نظر گرفته شود. علاوه بر این، مداخله دولت باید به جای کنترل قیمت‌ها، اصلاح ساختار بازار باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• گوشت گوسفند
• گوشت مرغ
• گوشت گاو
• کالمن فیلتر

20.1001.1.20084722.1401.36.2.6.5

موضوعات

• اقتصاد کشاورزی

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Meat Price Bubble in Iran: An Empirical Evidence from State‐Space Model

نویسندگان [English]

• Z. Shokoohi ¹
• M.H. Tarazkar ²

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Iran

² Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Iran

چکیده [English]

Price bubbles and price fluctuations of agricultural products are important issues that can significantly affect the welfare of consumers and producers. Therefore, in this study, the price bubbles in three main protein products, i.e. lamb, beef, and chicken meats, were investigated by the state-space model based on the Kalman filter using monthly time series data on the price of selected protein products from June 2001 to November 2020. We considered barley, concentrate feed prices, broiler chicken, and corn prices as the main important inputs used for producing lamb, beef, and chicken meat production, respectively. Also, real exchange rate and real oil price were used in the model. The results showed the differences in structures making positive and negative price bubbles, period and number of occurrences and the collapse of the bubble during the sample period. Also, in contrast to chicken prices, we concluded the price bubble of lamb and beef, is not significant compared to the real prices. For chicken meat, the main cause of price bubbles was due to the disruption of the marketing process of agricultural products, the lack of transparency of information, and contradictory government interventions in the market. To deal with the problem, the implementation of aggregated market information through merging technologies in Information and Communication Technology could be considered an efficient tool as suggested. In addition, government intervention should be prioritized on reforming the market structure instead of controlling prices.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Beef
• Chicken meat
• Kalman filter
• Lamb

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