تأثیر ابعاد اقتصادی-اجتماعی بر جنگل‏زدایی: کاربرد اقتصادسنجی فضایی

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• حمید امیرنژاد ¹
• امیر مهرجو ¹
• محمدهادی اسکندری نسب ²

¹ علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

² دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

10.22067/jead.2022.17787.0

چکیده

فعالیت‌های انسان قرن‌هاست که منجر به تخریب جنگل‌ها شده است. در قرن بیست و یکم، جنگل‌زدایی یکی از عوامل اصلی تغییرات آب‌وهوا بوده است؛ چراکه جنگل‌ها از دلایل اصلی کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای هستند. در نیم‌قرن گذشته کشورهای نیمه جنوبی قاره آسیا به دلیل تغییر ساختار اقتصادی، افزایش جمعیت و گسترش جهانی‌شدن، متحمل خسارت‌های عظیمی از مناطق جنگلی شده است. بر همین اساس در این پژوهش، عوامل اقتصادی اجتماعی مؤثر بر تخریب جنگل با توجه به داده‏های موجود در 18 کشور منتخب در نیمه جنوبی قاره آسیا بین سال‏های 2005 تا 2015 با استفاده از اقتصادسنجی فضایی بررسی شد. نتایج آزمون‌های همبستگی فضایی نشان داد که نادیده گرفتن اثرات همبستگی فضایی باعث خطای تخمین برازش می‌شود؛ همچنین نتایج برآورد مدل، فرضیه منحنی محیط‏زیستی کوزنتس برای کشورهای منتخب را با نقطه عطف 5107 دلار تأیید می‌کند. مطابق با یافته‏های تحقیق، افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه در سایر کشورها از طریق تحرک بین منطقه‏ای نهاده‏های تولید موجب افزایش جنگل‏زدایی در کشور مورد نظر می‏شود. افزایش نرخ ارز در سایر کشورها به دلیل افزایش واردات محصولات جنگلی از سایر کشورها و عدم قطع منابع جنگلی داخلی موجب کاهش جنگل‏زدایی در کشور مورد نظر می‏گردد. افزایش تراکم جمعیت و بیکاری در سایر کشورها به دلیل کاهش فرصت‏های شغلی در سایر کشورها و افزایش مهاجرت به کشور مورد نظر و به‏دنبال آن افزایش تقاضا برای غذا و افزایش تقاضای زمین باعث افزایش جنگل‏زدایی در کشور مورد نظر شده است. در نهایت افزایش متغیر شاخص توسعه انسانی باعث کاهش جنگل‏زدایی در کشور مورد نظر شده است؛ ولی تغییر این متغیر در سایر کشورها تأثیری بر جنگل‏زدایی کشور مورد نظر نداشته است؛ لذا در دنیایی با رشد اقتصادی فزاینده، پیشنهاد می‏شود به‏منظور تضمین جلوگیری از تخریب جنگل‏ها در بهبود شاخص توسعه انسانی؛ ریشه‏کن­کردن معضل بیکاری و ریشه‏کن­کردن فقر تلاش‌ها مضاعف گردد. همانطور که نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد جمعیت تأثیر مستقیم و معنی‏دار بر جنگل‏زدایی در کشورهای منتخب داشت و با توجه به افزایش رشد جمعیت در سال‏های مختلف، پیشنهاد می‏شود به مسئله جمعیت با نگاه به الزامات توسعه­ی پایدار توجه بیشتری شود تا کاهش تخریب محیط‏زیست به‏خصوص جنگل‏زدایی را به همراه داشته باشد. چراکه بر اساس نتایج این مطالعه عدم رشد سریع جمعیت موجب کاهش جنگل‏زدایی در کشورهای منتخب می‏گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• اقتصادسنجی فضایی
• توسعه پایدار اقتصادی
• جنگل‏زدایی
• منحنی کوزنتس فضایی

20.1001.1.20084722.1401.36.2.5.4

موضوعات

• اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست

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عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Socio-Economic Dimensions on Deforestation: Application of Spatial Econometrics

نویسندگان [English]

• H. Amirnejad ¹
• A. Mehrjo ¹
• M.H. Eskandari Nasab ²

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran

² Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University (T.M.U), Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

In the second half of the twenty-first century, economic change, population growth and globalization were the main factors driving the deforestation in the South Asian countries. To identify the effects due to socio-economic factors affecting deforestation in such countries, this study applied the spatial econometrics model based on data from 18 selected countries for the period between 2005 and 2015. The spatial correlation tests were showing that ignoring the effects of spatial correlation cause bias in results. The results of the model also confirmed the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the selected countries with a turning point of $ 5,107. Our findings illustrated that increasing GDP per capita in neighbouring countries through interregional mobility of inputs of production will increase deforestation in the target country. The increase in the exchange rate in neighbouring countries due to the increase in imports of forest products and the non-cutting of domestic forest resources will reduce deforestation in the target country. Increased population density and unemployment in neighbouring countries due to reduced job opportunities and increased migration to the target country, followed by increased demand for food and increased land demand, led to increased deforestation in the target country. Finally, increasing the human development index variable has reduced deforestation in the target country. However, changing this variable in neighbouring countries has not affected the deforestation of the target country. Therefore, in a world with increasing economic growth, it is suggested that to prevent deforestation by improving the human development index, eradicating the problem of unemployment, and eradicating poverty redouble efforts. As the results of this study showed, the population had a direct and significant effect on deforestation in selected countries. Due to the increase in population growth in different years, it is recommended that the population issue be given more attention by looking at the requirements of sustainable development to reduce environmental degradation, mainly deforestation. Because according to the results of this study, the lack of rapid population growth reduces deforestation in selected countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Deforestation
• Spatial econometrics
• Spatial Kuznets curve
• Sustainable economic development

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