بررسی اثر اعمال یارانه سبز بر اشتغال، سرمایه‌گذاری و ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران با استفاده از مدل CGE

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• ملیحه بکشلو ¹
• غلامرضا یاوری ²
• ابوالفضل محمودی ²
• افسانه نیکوکار ²
• فاطمه علیجانی ³

¹ دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، ایران

² دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، ایران

³ استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، ایران

10.22067/jead.2021.71051.1052

چکیده

یکی از سیاست‌های مهم اقتصادی در اغلب کشورها حمایت از تولیدکننده یا مصرف‌کننده از طریق پرداخت یارانه است. مقوله یارانه سبز در راستای توسعه کشاورزی مطرح شده که هم راستا با قانون هدفمند‌کردن یارانه‌ها، اما به شکلی واقعی می‌باشد. یارانه سبز ویژه کشاورزان و به منظور رونق کسب و کار و صنعت بخش کشاورزی است. هدف از این تحقیق، بررسی آثار الحاق ایران به سازمان تجارت جهانی، با اعمال سیاست شبیه‌سازی شده یارانه سبز بر روی متغیر‌های اشتغال، سرمایه‌گذاری و ارزش‌افزوده در بخش کشاورزی می‌باشد، که در قالب سناریوهای %20، %50 و %100 طراحی شده است. کالیبراسیون مدل با بکارگیری ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390 و سناریوی پایه (%0 اعمال یارانه سبز) صورت پذیرفت. جهت تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات در این تحقیق از نرم‌افزار GAMS استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در جریان آثار الحاق ایران به سازمان تجارت جهانی و با اعمال سیاست شبیه‌سازی یارانه سبز، اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی در سناریوهای 20، 50 و 100 درصد، افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین با اعمال سیاست یارانه سبز، سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی روند افزایشی دارد، که به دلیل افزایش تولید در این بخش و در نتیجه افزایش استفاده از نهاده‌های واسطه می‌باشد. نتایج بدست آمده از شوک‌های مذکور نشان می‌دهد که ارزش‌افزوده در بخش کشاورزی روندی صعودی دارد، که به دلیل افزایش به‌کارگیری عوامل تولید در این بخش می‌باشد.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

• بخش کشاورزی
• سازمان تجارت جهانی
• مدلCGE
• یارانه سبز

20.1001.1.20084722.1400.35.4.4.0

موضوعات

• اقتصاد کشاورزی

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Green Subsidies on Employment, Investment and Value added of Iran's Agricultural Sector Using the CGE Model

نویسندگان [English]

• M. Bakeshloo ¹
• Gh. Yavari ²
• A. Mahmoudi ²
• A. Nikoukar ²
• F. Alijani ³

¹ Ph.D. Student in Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

³ Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

One of the most important economic policies in most countries is to support producers or consumers through subsidies. The category of green subsidies has been proposed in the direction of agricultural development, which is in line with the law on targeted subsidies, but in a real way. Green subsidies belong to farmers and are used to boost business and industry in the agricultural sector. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization by applying a simulated green subsidy policy on the variables of employment, investment, and value added in the agricultural sector, which is designed in the form of 20%, 50% and 100% scenarios. The model was calibrated using the social accounting matrix of 2011 and the baseline scenario (0% of green subsidies). GAMS software was used to analyze the data in this research. The results show an increase in employment in the agricultural sector during the effects of Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization and by applying the green subsidy simulation policy, in 20, 50 and 100% scenarios. Also, the implementation of green subsidy policy has led to an increase in investment in the agricultural sector.This is  due to the increased production in this sector and as a result, increase in the use of intermediate inputs. The results obtained from the mentioned shocks show that value added in the agricultural sector has an upward trend, which is due to the increase in the use of factors of production in this sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Agriculture section
• CGE model
• Green Subsidy
• World Trade Organization

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