با همکاری انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران
نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه سید جمالالدین اسدآبادی، اسدآباد، ایران.
2 استادیار، گروه بازرگانی داخلی، موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش های بازرگانی، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه سید جمالالدین اسدآبادی، اسدآباد، ایران
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Among different food groups, animal-based products systematically exhibit the highest greenhouse gas emission intensities. Life cycle assessment (LCA) evidence indicates that beef and lamb have the greatest emission intensities, while poultry, eggs, and dairy products are associated with comparatively lower levels, although they still emit substantially more greenhouse gases than plant-based food sources. These differences are primarily driven by processes such as enteric fermentation, methane emissions, feed production, and land-use change associated with livestock feed cultivation. Consequently, the composition of household food baskets plays a critical role in determining total emissions, and even modest shifts in consumption patterns can significantly alter dietary carbon footprints. In high-income countries, dietary transitions are largely influenced by environmental awareness, health policies, and changing consumer preferences. In contrast, in developing countries, consumption patterns are more strongly shaped by economic variables such as income levels, relative food prices, and economic uncertainty. Therefore, reductions in high-emission food consumption do not necessarily reflect deliberate pro-environmental behavior and may instead result from declining welfare and reduced purchasing power. This issue is particularly important in developing economies where macroeconomic shocks can substantially reshape dietary structures. Accordingly, analyzing emission trends without accounting for macroeconomic conditions and structural changes in consumption may lead to misleading interpretations. However, a review of the literature reveals that environmental studies have primarily focused on carbon footprint quantification, while food economics research has concentrated on the impacts of economic shocks, with limited systematic integration between these two strands of research. As a result, the relative contribution of behavioral change versus economic pressure in driving dietary carbon footprint dynamics remains insufficiently understood.Despite the growing body of literature in life cycle assessment, index decomposition analysis, and food economics, several critical gaps persist. LCA-based studies have mainly estimated emission intensities but have not addressed the drivers of temporal variation. Moreover, applications of the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) in Iran have largely been confined to the energy and industrial sectors, with no prior studies examining animal protein consumption systems. In addition, most sustainable diet studies implicitly assume that dietary change is driven by informed consumer choice, neglecting the role of macroeconomic conditions, while food economics studies have rarely considered the environmental consequences of economic shocks. Consequently, a conceptual gap remains between food consumption patterns, macroeconomic shocks, and carbon footprint dynamics. This study addresses these gaps by focusing on the animal protein consumption basket, applying the LMDI method to decompose activity and structural effects, and integrating environmental analysis with macroeconomic shocks in Iran, including inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and economic sanctions. This integrated framework enables the separation of environmentally motivated behavioral changes from those induced by economic constraints.
The present study examined the evolution of the carbon footprint associated with animal protein consumption among Iranian households over the period 1992–2024 by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method to quantify the contributions of the activity effect (changes in consumption level) and the structural effect (changes in the composition of the consumption basket) across six distinct economic sub-periods. The results indicate that variations in the carbon footprint were driven primarily by macroeconomic shocks including inflation, international sanctions, exchange rate fluctuations, and changes in household purchasing power rather than by environmental policies or deliberate pro-environmental behavioral change. During periods of economic expansion, rising animal protein consumption constituted the main driver of emission growth, whereas during periods of instability, reduced consumption and economically induced shifts in dietary composition contributed to declining carbon footprints. Throughout the study period, red meat remained the largest contributor to emission variability, while poultry served as the principal substitute. However, the decline in dairy consumption observed in the later years also points to adverse economic consequences for food security and dietary quality. Overall, the findings suggest that the recent reduction in emissions should not necessarily be interpreted as evidence of a transition toward a sustainable food system; rather, it largely reflects economic constraints and reduced access to high-quality protein sources. Achieving the simultaneous objectives of emission reduction, food security, and public health therefore requires integrated policy interventions that combine lowering emission intensity in livestock production, restructuring the protein consumption basket, and maintaining the economic accessibility of nutritious foods. In this regard, policies such as promoting sustainable dietary patterns, improving productivity and reducing emission intensity in the livestock sector, employing price-based and informational instruments (e.g., carbon labeling), and integrating climate policies with food-security and nutritional-equity objectives are recommended. In addition, simultaneous monitoring of environmental and nutritional indicators is essential for a comprehensive assessment of food-system sustainability.
کلیدواژهها English
