با همکاری انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران
نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه شهرکرد-گروه توسعه روستایی
2 گروه مدیریت و توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Abstract
Introduction:The agricultural sector is considered one of the important pillars of sustainable development in various countries due to its fundamental role in ensuring food security, creating employment, preserving natural resources, and supporting economic development. In addition to meeting food demand, this sector has an impact on the growth of production, creation of added value and the development of rural areas through extensive links with other economic sectors. Agriculture is considered a cornerstone of national economies due to its vital role in ensuring food security, creating employment, preserving natural resources, and contributing significantly to non-oil exports. This fundamental status underscores the sector’s substantial value to the national economy through extensive backward and forward linkages. Furthermore, agriculture possesses a significant potential to stimulate production in other economic sectors; consequently, a decline in agricultural output can reduce value-added across the broader economy. In several developed nations, the agricultural sector ranks as the primary source of employment, positioning it as a pivotal component that contributes to socio-economic stability. The deep and multifaceted interconnections of the agricultural sector with other economic domains establish it as a driving force for growth and sustainable development at national and regional levels. However, climate change, manifesting in phenomena such as consecutive droughts, devastating floods, unprecedented temperature increases, and disruption of regular rainfall patterns, poses a serious threat to the sector’s productive capacity, presenting structural challenges to food security and the livelihoods of its stakeholders. Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, as a significant agricultural hub, due to its climatic sensitivities and heavy reliance on surface and groundwater resources, necessitates a transition towards “climate-smart agriculture.” The primary objective of this research is to conduct a multi-dimensional evaluation (economic, socio-environmental, and technical-institutional) of climate change adaptation strategies and to provide a scientific decision-making framework for local stakeholders.
Materials and Methods: A hybrid decision-making framework integrating the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was employed. First, potential climate adaptation strategies were identified through a comprehensive review of national and international literature. Subsequently, the Fuzzy Delphi Method was applied with the participation of nine experts (five university faculty members and four specialists from the Agricultural Jihad Organization) to screen and confirm the ten most appropriate adaptation strategies. In the second stage, the relative weights of the economic, social, environmental, and technical–institutional criteria and their corresponding sub-criteria were determined using FAHP based on the judgments of sixteen experts (five university faculty members, six agricultural specialists, and five managers from the Agricultural Jihad Organization). Finally, the selected adaptation strategies were prioritized by integrating the FAHP-derived weights with the TOPSIS method.
Results: The findings from the FAHP analysis indicate that the “economic” and “environmental” criteria are the most critical components in the innovation adoption process. Specifically, the sub-criterion of “Financial Return and Profitability” with an overall weight of 0.1685 and “Sustainable Water Resource Management” with a weight of 0.1364 were identified as the primary priorities. In the final ranking, the option of cultivating climate-resilient crop varieties secured the first rank with a score of 0.719. This strategy directly addresses farmers’ livelihood concerns and climatic limitations by reducing water requirements and maintaining yield stability. Crop rotation combined with cover cropping ranked second with a score of 0.700, highlighting the importance of ecosystem-based approaches and the enhancement of soil health (weight 0.0848). The options of conservation tillage (with a score of 0.668) and smart irrigation (with a score of 0.654) also achieved subsequent ranks. Conversely, technologies such as the Internet of Things, due to their need for specialized knowledge and technical infrastructure, and crop insurance, owing to its reactive nature (compensation for losses rather than prevention), received the lowest priority.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that economic performance, sustainable water resource management, and institutional capacity are the key determinants in prioritizing climate-smart agricultural strategies. Among the evaluated options, cultivation of climate stress-tolerant crop varieties and crop rotation with cover crops emerged as the most effective adaptation strategies. These findings suggest that policies promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture should prioritize economically viable, resource-efficient, and practically implementable strategies. Accordingly, strengthening agricultural extension services, promoting the development and dissemination of climate-resilient crop varieties, and designing targeted economic incentives for the adoption of prioritized adaptation measures can significantly facilitate the transition toward climate-smart agriculture.
Keywords: Climate Change; Climate-Smart Agriculture; Multi-Criteria Evaluation; FAHP; TOPSIS
JEL Classification: Q10; Q15; Q18; Q54
کلیدواژهها English
