با همکاری انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران
نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه ترویج کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل
2 گروه آمار-دانشکده علوم- دانشگاه زابل-زابل-ایران
3 گروه جغرافیا-دانشکده ادبیات-دانشگاه زابل-زابل -ایران
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Introduction
The agricultural sector in the Sistan region, as the core of the rural economy, has faced increasing risks in recent years. Chronic water stress and recurrent droughts have severely affected the production of the region’s strategic crops, threatening the livelihoods of farmers and rural households. These conditions have heightened the economic and social vulnerability of local communities and underscored the need for effective risk management strategies to enhance sustainability. Among available mechanisms, agricultural insurance—as a well established financial risk transfer tool—holds significant potential to help farmers absorb drought related shocks and maintain economic stability.
Materials and Methods
This study is applied in purpose and employs a quantitative, descriptive analytical approach. The statistical population includes all 796 villages of the Sistan region with a total of 54,198 households. To obtain valid and generalizable results, villages with more than 300 households were selected as the primary criterion. Accordingly, all 24 villages meeting this population threshold were chosen as the final sample communities. The selection of these 24 villages with over 300 households was based on a logical focus on stable rural settlements with livelihood systems strongly centered on agriculture. Larger villages with higher populations typically possess more complex socio economic structures, and a substantial portion of their residents rely directly on agricultural activities. Consequently, the impacts of water stress on livelihoods in such communities are more tangible, measurable, and analytically meaningful. These characteristics make the relationships among the study’s core variables—insurance uptake, livelihood resilience, and water stress—more observable. Additionally, access to reliable information through local institutions (such as the village council, health house, and the local office of agricultural extension services) is easier in these larger villages, thereby increasing the efficiency of household level sampling among farmers. Thus, this sampling strategy not only enhances the internal validity of the research—by concentrating on communities in which the core issues are most pronounced—but also ensures the practical feasibility of conducting the survey. Based on random sampling and Cochran’s formula, 384 households were selected. Data were analyzed using SPSS software, employing confirmatory factor analysis, independent t test, and path analysis.
Results and Discussion
The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that all 25 livelihood resilience indicators in the region possess acceptable validity. These indicators were summarized into six main factors that together explained more than 92% of the variance. Among these factors, economic–financial dimensions—such as income diversification and safeguarding productive assets—played a significantly stronger role than others in explaining resilience within this agricultural community. Moreover, the results of the independent t-test showed that farmers who insured their crops exhibited higher livelihood resilience against drought. Finally, the path analysis results revealed that water scarcity stress acts as a very strong mediating variable, playing a key role in transmitting the impact of insurance on resilience. The direct effect of strategic crop insurance on livelihood resilience (2.44) was minimal compared to its indirect effect through water scarcity stress (26.34). Consequently, more than 90% of the total effect of insurance (29.80) is transmitted indirectly via the intensification or mitigation of drought conditions.
Factor analysis showed that all 25 livelihood resilience indicators in the region had acceptable validity. These indicators were summarized into six main factors, which together explained more than 92% of the variance. Among these factors, the economic-financial dimensions, such as income diversification and the preservation of productive assets, played a much more prominent role than the other dimensions in explaining resilience in this agricultural community. On the other hand, the results of the independent samples
𝑡-test indicated that farmers who insured their crops had a higher level of livelihood resilience against drought. Finally, the path analysis results showed that water stress acted as a very strong mediating variable and played the main role in transferring the effect of insurance to resilience. The direct effect of strategic crop insurance on livelihood resilience (2.44) was negligible compared with its indirect effect through water stress (26.34), such that more than 0.90 of the total effect of insurance (29.80) was transmitted indirectly through the intensification or mitigation of drought conditions.
Conclusions
Agricultural insurance can serve as a catalytic mechanism for strengthening livelihood resilience. Farmers who use insurance demonstrate markedly better resilience outcomes across all dimensions. Crucially, the effectiveness of insurance is primarily indirect, operating through its ability to enhance households’ capacity to manage and withstand the impacts of drought. This finding positions agricultural insurance not as a supplementary service but as a central strategy for protecting productive assets and breaking the cycle of climate induced poverty in arid regions.
کلیدواژهها English
