با همکاری انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران
نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی
2 موسسه پژوهشهای برنامهریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Introduction
The exchange of agricultural goods is essential for maintaining worldwide food security, allowing nations to address local limitations caused by climate change, water shortages, and technological difficulties. Such commerce not only boosts farmers' earnings and supports rural development but also improves productivity by optimizing resource allocation. In Iran, agriculture has historically been a crucial component of the economy, contributing significantly to gross domestic product and employment levels. Among the various agricultural subsectors, horticultural products represent one of the most rapidly expanding areas in global agricultural trade. As the global focus shifts towards healthier diets, sustainable farming, and green development, these products have increasingly become vital drivers of economic growth and sources of foreign currency earnings. Within the category of horticultural crops, apples make up a notable portion of Iran's production and exports. From 2013 to 2023, apples represented an average of 17% of the country’s horticultural output, consistently ranking among the top three horticultural products, and their export trend during this timeframe indicates substantial potential for further growth.
In recent years, one strategy implemented to enhance Iran's agricultural exports is the "exchange of apple exports for banana imports," which was launched in 2016 with the purpose of fostering the growth of apple exports and securing the foreign currency necessary for importing bananas. Since this mechanism has been applied to apples over the last few years, an important question emerges: given the current limitations and difficulties, has its execution led to a significant change in the quantity of apple exports and banana imports? Furthermore, this research aims to offer insights that can improve Iran's trade and agricultural policies, aiding policymakers in crafting more balanced and effective approaches for the sustainable growth of the agricultural sector. A review of existing literature reveals that no previous research has investigated the impact of the apple–banana barter mechanism on apple exports and banana imports. As a result, the current study intends to evaluate the influence and effectiveness of this mechanism on the amounts of apple exports and banana imports from 2013 to 2023, utilizing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method.
Materials and Methods
The primary aim of this research is to assess the efficiency of the “apple-banana barter” mechanism. This mechanism is closely linked to the export supply of apples and the demand for imported bananas, and its impacts are examined through an apple export supply function and a banana import demand function. The apple export supply function is defined as a function of the relative price of apple, domestic apple production, the real exchange rate, and a dummy variable indicating the barter mechanism. The banana import demand function is structured as a function of the relative price of bananas, real national income, domestic banana production, the banana import tariff, and the dummy variable for the barter mechanism. Since some variables - like apple exports, relative apple prices, banana imports, relative banana prices, and the real exchange rate - are available quarterly, while others - such as the domestic production of apples and bananas and real national income - are annual, the study utilizes the Mixed Data Sampling-Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (MIDAS-FMOLS) method for the years 2013-2023.
Results and Discussion
The findings suggest that the “apple-banana barter” mechanism has positively impacted the volume of apple exports and banana imports in Iran, thereby confirming the primary hypothesis of the study. The estimation of Iran’s apple export supply function indicates that the relative price of apples, the real exchange rate, and domestic production have a positive and significant effect on apple exports, whereas trade and economic crises reduce the supply of Iranian apple exports. Furthermore, the estimation of Iran’s banana import demand function shows that the relative price of bananas, domestic production, the real exchange rate, and trade-economic crises have a negative and significant effect on the volume of banana imports, while real national income has a positive and significant impact.
Conclusions
Based on the research findings, to strengthen apple exports and enhance the efficiency of the barter mechanism, it is recommended that the barter system continue with necessary reforms to increase transparency, reduce rent-seeking and unnecessary restrictions, and establish continuous monitoring and a tracking system to minimize potential corruption. This mechanism should also be implemented alongside other export promotion strategies and, once operational issues are resolved, expanded to other export fruits such as kiwi and oranges. Controlling short-term exchange rate fluctuations and ensuring currency stability will improve exporters’ ability to make predictable decisions and enhance the effectiveness of the barter policy. Strengthening domestic production capacity and improving product quality - through higher orchard productivity, modern technologies, optimal input management, and the development of cold storage, sorting, and packaging infrastructure - are essential for ensuring a stable and high-quality export supply. Additionally, developing tools such as export insurance and trade support funds can mitigate the impact of economic crises, while tariff policies, exchange rates, and the barter mechanism should be adjusted considering factors affecting banana imports to maintain continuity in domestic market supply.
کلیدواژهها English
