نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسنده
هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی
چکیده
نرخ ارز مؤثر واقعی، معیاری برای ارزیابی ارزش پول یک کشور در برابر سبدی از ارزهای دیگر، با لحاظ تفاوت‌های سطح قیمت داخلی و خارجی است که رقابت‌پذیری اقتصادی را در تجارت بین‌المللی نشان می‌دهد.این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر نااطمینانی‌های نرخ ارز مؤثر واقعی بر سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی استان‌های مختلف ایران در دوره زمانی 1387 تا 1402 پرداخته است. در این مطالعه، ابتدا نااطمینانی نرخ ارز با استفاده از مدل‌های EGARCH محاسبه و به‌عنوان متغیر توضیحی در مدل مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. سپس، تابع سرمایه‌گذاری بخش کشاورزی با استفاده از تکنیک Swamy برآورد شد. برای تخمین توابع رگرسیونی و حل مدل‌ها، از نرم‌افزارهای Eviews9 و Stata14 استفاده شد. نتایج آزمون‌های ریشه واحد فیشر و دیکی فولر نشان‌دهنده ناپایداری متغیرها در این سطح بوده و آزمون‌های هم‌انباشتگی درونی رابطه بلندمدت میان متغیرها را تأیید کردند. یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان داد که تولید ناخالص داخلی بخش کشاورزی استان‌ها، نرخ بهره و اعتبارات بانکی تأثیر معناداری بر سرمایه‌گذاری کشاورزی دارند. همچنین، تأثیر نااطمینانی نرخ ارز مؤثر واقعی در استان‌های مختلف متفاوت بوده است. به‌طور خاص، این نااطمینانی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر سرمایه‌گذاری کشاورزی در استان‌های اصفهان و آذربایجان غربی داشته، در حالی که در استان‌های سمنان، سیستان و بلوچستان، مازندران، آذربایجان شرقی و کرمانشاه تأثیر منفی مشاهده شده است.. فلذا، لازم است که دولتمردان و سیاستگذاران اقتصادی از اتخاذ تصمیماتی که موجب نوسان بیشتری در بازار ارز ایجاد می کنند خودداری کرده تا با تثبت نرخ واقعی ارز، مانع خروج سرمایه از بخش کشاورزی و بحران در دیگر بخش های اقتصادی ، شده و زمینه های گسترش سرمایه گذاری در بخش کشاورزی و سایر بخش ها را فراهم آورند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
- الگوهای با ضرایب متغیر
- تولید ناخالص داخلی
- واریانس ناهمسانی
- مدل رگرسیون تعمیم یافته
- رقابت پذیری اقتصادی
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
The impact assessment of real effective exchange rate uncertainties on agricultural investment in Iranian provinces: An analysis using the two-step Swamy approach.
نویسنده [English]
- mehdi mogaddam
Academic staff of Islamic Azad University
چکیده [English]
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is a measure that evaluates the value of a country's currency against a basket of other currencies, taking into account differences in domestic and foreign price levels or inflation. It serves as an indicator to compare the economic competitiveness of a country in international trade.The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of real effective exchange rate uncertainties on the amount of investment in the agricultural sector by provinces of the country, during the years 1387 to 1402. Therefore, first, currency uncertainties were calculated with the help of EGARCH(1,1) generalized autoregressive variance variance model and entered as an explanatory variable in the model, and then using panel data based on patterns with variable coefficients, with estimators Swamy's two-stage model, its impact along with other variables of the model on investment in the country's agricultural sector has been evaluated. The results of this study show that the effect of the variables of the GDP of the agricultural sector of the provinces, interest rate, bank credits on the amount of investment in the agricultural sector of the provinces was significant. Also, the uncertainty variable of real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on agricultural investment in Isfahan and West Azerbaijan provinces, while it has a negative effect on agricultural investment in Semnan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Mazandaran, East Azerbaijan and Kermanshah provinces. Therefore, it is necessary that the government and economic policy makers refrain from making decisions that cause more volatility in the currency market in order to prevent capital outflow from the agricultural sector as the basis of the country's economy.The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is a measure that evaluates the value of a country's currency against a basket of other currencies, taking into account differences in domestic and foreign price levels or inflation. It serves as an indicator to compare the economic competitiveness of a country in international trade.The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of real effective exchange rate uncertainties on the amount of investment in the agricultural sector by provinces of the country, during the years 1387 to 1402. Therefore, first, currency uncertainties were calculated with the help of EGARCH(1,1) generalized autoregressive variance variance model and entered as an explanatory variable in the model, and then using panel data based on patterns with variable coefficients, with estimators Swamy's two-stage model, its impact along with other variables of the model on investment in the country's agricultural sector has been evaluated. The results of this study show that the effect of the variables of the GDP of the agricultural sector of the provinces, interest rate, bank credits on the amount of investment in the agricultural sector of the provinces was significant. Also, the uncertainty variable of real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on agricultural investment in Isfahan and West Azerbaijan provinces, while it has a negative effect on agricultural investment in Semnan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Mazandaran, East Azerbaijan and Kermanshah provinces. Therefore, it is necessary that the government and economic policy makers refrain from making decisions that cause more volatility in the currency market in order to prevent capital outflow from the agricultural sector as the basis of the country's economy.The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is a measure that evaluates the value of a country's currency against a basket of other currencies, taking into account differences in domestic and foreign price levels or inflation. It serves as an indicator to compare the economic competitiveness of a country in international trade.The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of real effective exchange rate uncertainties on the amount of investment in the agricultural sector by provinces of the country, during the years 1387 to 1402. Therefore, first, currency uncertainties were calculated with the help of EGARCH(1,1) generalized autoregressive variance variance model and entered as an explanatory variable in the model, and then using panel data based on patterns with variable coefficients, with estimators Swamy's two-stage model, its impact along with other variables of the model on investment in the country's agricultural sector has been evaluated. The results of this study show that the effect of the variables of the GDP of the agricultural sector of the provinces, interest rate, bank credits on the amount of investment in the agricultural sector of the provinces was significant. Also, the uncertainty variable of real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on agricultural investment in Isfahan and West Azerbaijan provinces, while it has a negative effect on agricultural investment in Semnan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Mazandaran, East Azerbaijan and Kermanshah provinces. Therefore, it is necessary that the government and economic policy makers refrain from making decisions that cause more volatility in the currency market in order to prevent capital outflow from the agricultural sector as the basis of the country's economy.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Models with variable coefficients
- Gross Domestic Product
- heteroscedasticity variance
- generalized regression model
- economic competitiveness
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