ارزیابی پایداری ترجیحات مصرف‌کنندگان برنج در کشور

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ناصر آسیابانی ¹
• اتابک کاظم پور کهریز ¹
• مجید حسنی مقدم ²
• آرش دور اندیش ¹
• احمد قاسمی ¹

¹ گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

² سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

10.22067/jead.2025.93036.1343

چکیده

برنج یکی از مهم‌ترین اقلام غذایی جهان است که نقشی اساسی در سبد مصرفی خانوارهای ایرانی دارد. در دو دهه‌ی گذشته، روند افزایشی واردات به‌ویژه از هند و پاکستان، همراه با کاهش تولید داخلی، موجب کاهش سهم برنج ایرانی در مصرف سرانه و افزایش سهم برنج وارداتی شده است. این تغییرات نگرانی‌هایی درباره وفاداری مصرف‌کنندگان به برنج داخلی و احتمال تغییر پایدار ترجیحات غذایی ایجاد کرده است.هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر آزمون پایداری ترجیحات مصرف‌کنندگان برنج ایرانی در کشور است. برای این منظور با استفاده از رهیافت‌های غیر پارامتری با بکارگیری دو رویکرد ترجیحات آشکار شده ضعیف و ترجیحات آشکار شده تعمیم‌یافته، پایداری ترجیحات مصرف‌کنندگان برنج ایرانی در کشور در دوره‌ی زمانی 1401-1382 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد باوجود این که در دوره‌ی مورد مطالعه 4 نقض در ترجیحات مصرف‌کنندگان اتفاق افتاده است اما این نقض‌ها پایدار نبوده و شکست ساختاری در ترجیحات رخ نداده است و به عبارت دیگر وفاداری به برنج ایرانی کماکان وجود دارد. لذا پیشنهاد می‌شود که جهت کاربست سیاست‌گذاری‌های مناسب اقداماتی نظیر سرمایه‌گذاری در فناوری و تحقیق و توسعه و بهبود زنجیره‌ی تأمین در دستور کار قرار گیرد تا برنج ایرانی با قیمت رقابتی به بازار وارد شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• ایران، برنج، ترجیحات مصرف‌کننده، ترجیحات آشکار شده ضعیف، ترجیحات آشکار شده تعمیم‌یافته طبقه‌بندی JEL: D11
• Q17

موضوعات

• بازاریابی و تجارت محصولات کشاورزی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Preferences of Iranian Rice Consumer in Country

نویسندگان [English]

• N. Asiabani ¹
• A. Kazempour Kahriz ¹
• M. Hassani Moghaddam ²
• A. Dourandish ¹
• A. Ghasemi ¹

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

² Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
 Rice is one of the oldest and most important cultivated crops and consumed food items in the world, and half of the world's population depends on rice as a staple food. This product is of great importance in the food basket of Iranian households, and as a basic and strategic commodity, its supply through domestic production and imports plays an important role in ensuring the country's food security. Over the past two decades, the Iranian rice market has undergone notable transformations. The increase in rice imports, coupled with a decline in domestic production, has gradually diminished the share of Iranian rice in household consumption baskets. Imported rice, particularly from neighboring countries like India and Pakistan, has gained popularity due to its competitive pricing, adequate quality, and effective marketing strategies, replacing domestic rice in many cases. These trends have raised significant concerns about whether such changes signal a fundamental shift in consumer preferences or merely reflect temporary market dynamics influenced by external factors. The objective of this study is to critically analyze the stability of consumer preferences for rice in Iran using advanced non-parametric methodologies, specifically the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preferences (WARP) and the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preferences (GARP). By doing so, the study seeks to distinguish between structural changes in consumer loyalty and transient factors shaping consumption patterns.
 
Materials and Methods
 This research investigates consumption preferences for domestic and imported rice over a twenty-year period, from 2003 to 2022. The analytical framework includes constructing normalized WARP matrices to evaluate the adherence to revealed preference principles, coupled with statistical tests like the Kruskal-Wallis test to assess the stability and coherence of consumer choices over time. Price and per capita consumption data for domestic and imported rice were meticulously sourced from national databases, normalized using grain-specific consumer price indices to account for inflationary effects, and analyzed computationally using MATLAB software. This methodology allows for a comprehensive exploration of preference dynamics while ensuring the robustness of statistical evaluations. In addition to quantitative analyses, the study considers qualitative aspects of consumer preferences, including cultural and economic factors that may influence purchasing decisions.
 
Results and Discussion
 The results indicate a strong resilience in consumer loyalty towards domestic rice, despite temporary increases in the market share of imported alternatives. Four instances of violations in consumer preferences were observed during the study period; however, these violations were determined to be transient and attributable to non-systematic shocks, such as seasonal consumption trends, temporary price fluctuations, or short-term economic pressures. The Kruskal-Wallis test confirmed the stability of consumer preferences by indicating no statistically significant structural breaks. Similarly, GARP analysis validated the rationality and consistency of consumer behavior, as all violations remained within the acceptable margins of measurement error, suggesting no deviation from stable preference patterns. These findings align with previous studies examining consumer preferences, reinforcing the notion that Iranian consumers exhibit steadfast loyalty to locally produced rice. Moreover, the study highlights the temporary nature of market pressures favoring imported rice, emphasizing the opportunity to reestablish the competitive edge of domestic rice through targeted interventions.
 
Conclusion
 The findings of this study highlight the persistent preference of Iranian consumers for domestic rice over the past two decades, despite competitive pressures from imported rice in terms of price and quality. To promote the sustainable growth and competitiveness of the domestic rice industry, this study proposes several strategic recommendations:
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Consumer preferences
• Generalized axiom of revealed preferences
• Iran
• Rice
• Weak axiom of revealed preferences

©2025 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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