نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 شیراز
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
چکیده
توزیع نابرابر زمانی و مکانی آب منجر به بحران آب در بسیاری از کشورها شده است. تجارت فیزیکی محصولات کشاورزی از یک کشور به کشور دیگر، انتقال مجازی منابع آب یا تجارت آب مجازی را به همراه دارد. ایران از جمله کشورهایی است که به دلیل اقلیم خشک و نیمه خشک از آب مجازی برای مدیریت منابع آب استفاده می‌کند و حجم زیادی از محصولات کشاورزی بخصوص دانه‌های روغنی از طریق واردات تامین می‌گردد. در این مطالعه با هدف ارزیابی روند واردات آب مجازی دانه‌های روغنی شامل سویا و آفتابگردان از شرکای تجاری، به تعیین اثرات متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی از جمله ریسک مالی، اقتصادی و سیاسی شرکای تجاری در کنار سایر متغیرهای محیط‌زیستی موثر برای دوره زمانی 2005 تا 2020 با استفاده از مدل تعمیم‌یافته جاذبه برای دو محصول سویا و افتابگردان پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که ریسک مالی و اقتصادی در کنار متغیرهای نسبت تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران به کشور طرف تجاری، دسترسی به آب شریک تجاری، در واردات دانه‌های روغنی تاثیرگذار بوده و نسبت تعرفه واردات در هیچ کدام اثرگذار نبوده است. اثر ریسک مالی شرکای تجاری سویا بر واردات این دانه روغنی نقش مهمی داشته و رشد نرخ ارز واقعی اثر کمتری را در واردات داشته است، چرا که جهت تامین نیاز کشور واردات دانه‌های روغنی مورد حمایت بوده و در دوره مورد مطالعه برای واردات از ارز دولتی بهره گرفته شده است. انتخاب شرکای تجاری با ریسک مالی کمتر و فاصله جغرافیایی کمتر می تواند واردات بیشتر و درنتیجه ورود آب مجازی بیشتری را به همراه داشته باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
The financial, economic and political risk of business partners on the import of virtual water of oilseeds to Iran
نویسندگان [English]
- Fatemeh Fathi 1
- Mina Behnam 2
1 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics School of Agriculture Shiraz University Shiraz, Iran
2 Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]
Virtual water trade which is constantly increasing in the world indicates the economic concepts related to international trade, especially the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Every country exports goods which require relatively abundant and cheap factors for production, and imports ones which need relatively rare and expensive factors. Using virtual water for managing water resources is among the critical topics because a large part of Iran has an arid and semi-arid climate and suffers from an increase in acute and excessive water scarcity. Oilseeds including soybean and sunflower are among the agricultural products required by Iran, which face a large volume of production and import every year.
Materials and Methods
The present study aims to assess the trend of importing the oilseeds virtual water from commercial partners and determine the effects of economic and environmental factors influencing their import during 2005-2020 utilizing the generalized gravity model. The economics and trade variable such as the ratio of Iran's GDP to other countries, import tariff ratio, real exchange rate growth, country risk index, distance between countries and sanction are considerd. The environmental variables such as area under cultivation, Access to water, lack of access to water per capita are considerd. Variables of access and lack of access to water, which consists of four environmental variables total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal and total fresh water volume.
Result and discution
The virtual water trading model is considered a scientific model and a practical solution to deal with the water shortage crisis in countries, especially Iran. In this research, through gravity models, the determinants affecting the volume of oilseed imports to Iran were identified. The variables of the ratio of Iran's GDP to the country of the trading partner and the access to water of the country of the trading partner were effective in both estimations, and the variable of the import tariff ratio was not effective in any of them. The risk variables of the countries have also been effective in importing virtual water. The variables of access to water and lack of access to water are environmental variables that are effective in the model, like economic variables. Therefore, the import of oilseeds is affected by economic variables, but since the importation of oilseeds is supported to meet the country's needs and the government currency has been used in the studied period, the variable of real exchange rate growth has less effect on imports. Is. But on the other hand, the variables of access and lack of access to water, which consist of four environmental variables (total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal, and the total volume of fresh water), play an important role in the import of virtual water through oilseeds to Iran. The following can be mentioned as suggestions: - Considering the significance of the variable distance between countries in the estimation, instead of meeting the demand for oilseeds from producers with a large geographical distance, it is suggested to exchange these products with neighboring countries and regional markets if it is possible and capable of producing these products. Will happen. In other words, the Iranian government should accept the risk of importing oilseeds from neighbors and regional markets that are less far away, not necessarily from the production hub. Maybe the cost of importing this product will decrease by choosing these countries. Also, according to the role of the risk index, it is expected that countries that carry less risk will be chosen as trading partners. Although the area under cultivation will be associated with the reduction of virtual water imports, considering the situation of Iran's water resources and the need to import these two types of oilseeds to Iran, it will not be possible to increase the area under cultivation. Importing virtual water can play an important role in the sustainability of water resources and, at the same time, supply domestic needs. According to the significance of the variables of access and lack of access to water in the estimated relationships for soybean and sunflower, some countries have a relative advantage in the production of these seeds. Therefore, for the management and sustainability of water resources, it is suggested to import from countries that have more access to water and also have more production. Therefore, importing more virtual water makes it possible to harvest more water for the cultivation of these types of seeds.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Risk
- Gravity Model
- Water footprint
- Oilseeds
- Virtual Water Trade
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