نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
گروه اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، موسسه پژوهشهای برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی
چکیده
در این مطالعه با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت پیامدهای زیست‌محیطی اعطای یارانه به کودهای شیمیایی و انتقال این یارانه به محصول در شهرستان زرندیه استان مرکزی بررسی شد. اطلاعات لازم از طریق منابع آماری وزارت جهاد کشاورزی برای سال زراعی 1401 برای سه محصول گندم آبی، جوآبی و ذرت علوفه‌ای که بیش از 85 درصد سطح زیر کشت این منطقه را به خود اختصاص میداند گردآوری شد. در مرحله اول میزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای تولید هر کدام از محصولات محاسبه شدند و سپس تبعات زیست محیطی سیاست‌های مختلف اعطای یارانه بررسی شدند. به منظور الگوسازی و تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از نرم افزارهای Excel و GAMS و مدل برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت با رویکرد تابع هزینه استفاده شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد بیشترین میزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای مربوط به تولید ذرت‌علوفه ای است و الکتریسیته، دیزل و کودهای شیمیایی بیشترین سهم را در انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای داشتند. نتایج مربوط به شبیه‌سازی رفتار کشاورزان منطقه نشان داد با افزایش قیمت کودهای شیمیایی سطح زیر کشت ذرت‌علوفه‌ای نسبت به دو محصول دیگر کاهش بیشتری خواهد داشت. همچنین افزایش قیمت کود فسفر نسبت به سایر کودهای‌شیمیایی تاثیر بیشتری بر کاهش میزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای دارد. بررسی سیاست انتقال یارانه از نهاده‌های شیمیایی به محصول، نشان داد در حالتی قیمت کودهای شیمیایی صددرصد افزایش و قیمت محصول 5 درصد افزایش یابد، میزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه در واحد سطح نسبت به سایر حالت‌ها کمتر خواهد بود. با توجه به نتایج این مطالعه انتقال یارانه از نهاده‌ها به محصول می‌تواند تبعات زیست‌محیطی مطلوب‌‌تری به دنبال داشته باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Environmental impacts of reducing chemical fertilizer subsidies (Agricultural Crops in Zarandieh, Markazi Province)
نویسندگان [English]
- Seyed mohammad jafar esfahani
- Elham Barikani
natural resource and environmental economics, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI)
چکیده [English]
Introduction
Many governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major problem, especially in developing countries. On the one hand, the government aims to boost food production by offering agricultural subsidies. On the other hand, the excessive use of chemical inputs due to these subsidies has raised concerns about environmental pollution. Therefore, one of the most significant global challenges is to balance agricultural production to meet the increasing demand of the growing population while maintaining the quality of the environment. In general, any change in the government's support policies in the agricultural sector can lead to fluctuations in input and product prices, affecting farmers' profits. Consequently, such changes can influence cultivation patterns and the consumption of agricultural inputs. So, it leads to a change in environmental impact. Therefore, before making any changes in policy, it is essential to examine the economic and environmental impacts and base decisions on economic and environmental considerations.
Materials and Methods
This study uses positive mathematical programming (PMP) to study the environmental impact of chemical fertilizers’ subsidies change and transfer subsidies to crops in Zarandieh city of Markazi province. The necessary information was collected through the statistical sources of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad for the crop year 2023 for the three crops including irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, and silage corn, which occupies more than 85 percent of the cultivated area of this region. In the first stage, the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by each product was calculated, and then the environmental impact of different subsidy policies was investigated. To calculate the greenhouse gas emissions, the emission coefficient of each of the inputs that have been cited in various studies was used. To model and analyze the data, positive mathematical programming with the cost function approach was used. Excel and GAMS software has been used to run the models.
Results and Discussion
The results of the study showed that the highest amount of greenhouse gas emissions is related to corn silage, and electricity, diesel, and chemical fertilizers have the largest share of the greenhouse gas emissions. The results of the simulation of the cultivation pattern of the region in the case where only chemical fertilizers include N-fertiliser, P-fertiliser, and K-fertiliser separately and together have an increase by 25, 50, 75, and 100 percent showed that with the increase in the input price, the cultivated area and the income of farmers in the region decreases. Also, increasing the price of P-fertilizer can reduce environmental impact more than increasing the price of another chemical fertilizer. To investigate the environmental impact of reallocating subsidies to products instead of chemical inputs, a situation was simulated in which the price of chemical inputs increased by 100 percent and the price of the product increased by 5 and 10 percent, respectively, and the results of the model showed that the lowest environmental impact of crop production per hectare occurs when the price of chemical fertilizers increases by 100% and the price of the product increases by 5%. According to the results of the study, it seems that allocating subsidies to products instead of production inputs can have more favorable environmental consequences. In other words, when the subsidy is allocated to the product instead of chemical inputs, the environmental impact of crop production in this area would be reduced and the amount of emissions per hectare of farm or million Tomans of gross profit would be less compared to other situations.
Conclusion
It is necessary to support the agricultural sector to boost food production but these supports should be done with the least environmental impact. According to the findings of this study, if subsidies are given to agricultural products instead of inputs, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced while maintaining the area of crops and the amount of gross profit of farmers. The policy of setting a guaranteed price for basic agricultural products in Iran can be a suitable tool to realize this. In other words, transferring the credits allocated for purchasing chemical fertilizers to the guaranteed purchase of agricultural products will be an effective step in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and their impact, as well as maintaining the country's food security.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Green House Gas emission
- Positive Mathematical Programming
- Crop Pattern
- Zarandieh City
- Markazi Province
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