واکاوی مهم‌ترین متغیرهای اثرگذار بر امنیت آبی کشاورزی در استان مازندران

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• فاطمه رزاقی بورخانی ¹
• طاهر عزیزی خالخیلی ¹
• علی اکبر براتی ²

¹ گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

² گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2024.87497.1260

چکیده

با توجه به محدود بودن منابع آب شیرین و تجدیدشونده در جهان، کمبود منابع آب از جمله بزرگترین مسائل پیش روی بشر است که منجر به افزایش مخاطرات مرتبط با آب شده است. بحران منابع آب با کاهش سطح تولید بر امنیت غذایی تأثیر منفی می‌گذارد. بخش کشاورزی به‌دلیل افزایش تولید و وابستگی زیاد به منابع آبی در دهه­های اخیر تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی ناشی از افزایش میزان دما و کاهش سطح بارش با بحران کم­آبی مواجه بوده است. با توجه به اهمیت کشت آبی در استان مازندران و نقش مهم استان مازندران در امنیت غذایی کشور، مطالعه حاضر باهدف شناسایی مهم‌ترین متغیرهای اثرگذار در امنیت آبی استان مازندران انجام گرفت. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل 16 نفر از خبرگان موضوعی دارای سابقه تحقیقاتی یا اجرایی در حوزه‌های مرتبط با مطالعات آب، امنیت آبی و تغییر اقلیم بودند. انتخاب این افراد به روش هدفمند انجام شد. ابزار جمع‌آوری داده‌ها در این پژوهش پرسشنامه و روش جمع‌آوری داده‌ها مصاحبه حضوری بود. در ابتدا با استفاده از مرور ادبیات موضوع و مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ ساختارمند با خبرگان موضوعی، متغیرهای دخیل در امنیت آبی شناسایی شدند. سپس، از خبرگان خواسته شد تا اثرات متقاطع متغیرهای شناسایی‌شده را از طریق مقایسه زوجی ارزیابی کنند. در نهایت، تجزیه ‌و تحلیل داده‌ها به روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل با استفاده از نرم‌افزار MICMAC انجام شد. براساس نتایج، متغیر «مدیریت و حکمرانی خوب آب کشاورزی» در رتبه اول میزان اثرگذاری مستقیم قرار گرفت که نشان‌دهنده اهمیت قابل‌توجه این متغیر در مدیریت بحران آبی است. «کاهش میزان نزولات جوی به‌واسطه وقوع تغییرات اقلیمی»، «میزان و تنوع منابع آبی» و «سطح دانش و سواد زیست‌محیطی روستاییان» در رتبه‌های بعدی از نظر میزان تأثیرگذاری مستقیم بر امنیت آبی قرار گرفتند. حکمرانی خوب آب با تقویت مشارکت هم‌افزای بخش‌های دولتی، خصوصی و مردم‌نهاد، به‌منظور برنامه‌ریزی و سیاست‌گذاری امنیت غذایی (مبتنی بر رویکرد پیوند آب، انرژی و غذا) باید مورد توجه قرار گیرد. در این راستا مدیریت بهینه مزرعه با عملیات خوب کشاورزی (GAP) و روش‌های کشاورزی حفاظتی و تاب‌آوری کشاورزان نسبت به تغییرات اقلیم، آگاه‌سازی و توانمندسازی کشاورزان از طریق گسترش سواد آبی و سواد زیست‌محیطی با مشارکت نهاد توانمندساز ترویج کشاورزی، پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• امنیت غذایی
• بحران آب
• پیوند آب و غذا
• سیاست آب
• مدیریت منابع آب

موضوعات

• توسعه کشاورزی و روستایی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysing the most Important Variables Affecting Agricultural Water Security in Mazandaran Province

نویسندگان [English]

• F. Razzaghi Borkhani ¹
• T. Azizi Khalkheili ¹
• A.A. Barati ²

¹ Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Faculty of Crop Sciences, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran

² Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
The shortage of freshwater resources is one of the primary crises the world faces, despite the constant availability of renewable water sources. As a result, the rising risks associated with water scarcity are a critical concern. The water crisis reduces crops production and negatively affects food security. Due to the increase in demand for food, agriculture section is under more pressure because of both water crisis and more demand for food. Agricultural sector has been also facing with water shortage due to climate changes caused by the more global warming and low precipitation. Water crisis and climate changes leading to a decrease in the crops production. Now, agriculture and livelihood of villagers has become unstable more than any time. Considering the importance of irrigated farming in Mazandaran province in the country's food security, the present study was conducted with the aim of identifying the most important variables that affecting water security in Mazandaran province.
 
Materials and Methods
The statistical population of the research included 16 subject experts with research or executive experience in the fields related to water studies, water security and climate change. The selection of them was done in a purposeful way. The data collection tool was a researcher made questionnaire and the data collection method was face-to-face interview. At first, to identify the variables involved in water security a subject literature review and several semi-structured interviews with subject experts were conducted. Then, the experts were asked to evaluate the cross-effects of the identified variables through pairwise comparisons and in the form of the MICMAC questionnaire. Finally, the data were analysis using MICMAC software.
 
Results and Discussion
According to the results, among the studied variables, "knowledge and environmental literacy of villagers" and "reduction of precipitation due to climate change" (input variables) are two important key variables that directly and indirectly affect water security and therefore should be considered. The variables "best management of appropriate farm operations", "volume and diversity of water resources" and "good management and governance of agricultural water" are intermediate variables, with high impact and high dependence. Based on the direct influence network intensity of the key variables involved in water security, variables such as “best management of suitable farm operations”, “good management and governance of agricultural water”, “the degree of resilience of farmers to adapt to climate change” play a central and sensitive role. Based on the indirect relationships, “best management of appropriate farm operations”, “the degree of resilience of farmers to adapt to climate change”, “risk management of ecological hazards and climate change” have the greatest indirect effect on other variables and should be considered by policy makers and planners in this field.
 
Conclusion
Water crisis is a major challenge for agricultural activities and consequently for food security. Considering the vital role that Mazandaran province plays in the agricultural products production and as a result food security, the present study examined the most important variables affecting food security. The findings of this study showed that "good management and governance of agricultural water" has the most direct impact on water crisis management. Good water governance can be taken into consideration with the relative strengthening and synergistic participation of public and private sectors and non-governmental organizations in line with the planning and implementation of food security policy with the water-energy-food nexus approach. The role of increasing the environmental knowledge and literacy of villagers by providing effective educational-promotional services such as farm filed school is very important on the farmer's resilience and adaptability. On the other hand, variables such as good water management and governance, development of new irrigation systems and technologies, zoning of agricultural lands and the explanation of the appropriate cultivation pattern for each zone (such as planting crops with low water demand and high added value include medicinal plants) are undeniable impact on the livelihood resilience of the farmer's family and adaptation to climate change conditions. Diversify the livelihood resources of farming households with the participation of household women, promoting climate-oriented businesses that are compatible with climate changes (such as agricultural tourism and handicrafts), using drought-resistant species, changing the date of cultivation, developing greenhouse cultivation, medicinal plants and modernization of irrigation, change of history and cultivation pattern play important roles on the resilience of farmers to adapt climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Food security
• Water and food nexus
• Water crisi
• Water policy
• Water resources management

©2024 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).

مراجع

1. Abbasi Rostami, A.A., Yazdanpanah, M., Abdashahi, A., Azizi Khalkheili, T., & Savari, M. (2022). Analysis of the social network of the governance of the integrated management of agricultural water resources in Mazandaran province. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 13(25), 197-209. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.52547/jwmr.13.25.197
2. Abedi, S. (2020). Water governance and evaluation of its impacts on water and food security. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, 7(1), 1-12. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v7i1.82068
3. Ahopelto, L., Sojamo, S., Belinskij, A., Soininen, N., & Keskinen, M. (2024). Water governance for water security: analysing institutional strengths and challenges in Finland. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 40(2), 153-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2023.2266733
4. Asadpourian, Z., Naderi mahdei, K., & Mohammadi, Y. (2022). Investigating the strategies of sustainable management of agricultural water resources in Lorestan province. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Journal, 17(2), 63-80. (In Persian)
5. Azizi-Khalkheili, T., Zamani, G., & Karami, E. (2017). Farmers adaptation to climate variation: Barriers and suggested solutions. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(3), 148-159. https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v30i3.42826
6. Bahrami Mehneh, F., Keikha, A., Sabouhi, M., & Ahmadpour Borazjani, M. (2017). Decision support system for economic value of irrigation water with reducing the food gap in agro-ecological zones. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(4), 345-359. (In Persian). https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20084722.1395.30.4.7.8
7. Balali, H., Yousefi, F., & Movahedi, R. (2020). Factors affecting water market creation and development in Hamedan-Bahar plain. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 25(84), 167-190. https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2019.40392.729
8. Barati, A.A., Azadi, H., Dehghani Pour, M., Lebailly, P., & Qafori, M. (2019). Determining key agricultural strategic factors using AHP-MICMAC. Sustainability, 11(14), 3947. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/14/3947
9. Behboudi, D., & Ghorbani, F. (2023). Analyzing the leverage points of qualitative system dynamic model of water governance (Case study: Qarranqu basin). Iran-Water Resources Research, 19(1), 22-45. (In Persian). https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17352347.1402.19.1.2.7
10. Beithou, N., Qandil, A., Khalid, M.B., Horvatinec, J., & Ondrasek, G. (2022). Review of agricultural-related water security in water-scarce countries: Jordan case study. Agronomy, 12(1643), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12071643
11. Davoodi, Z., Bakhshoodeh, M., & Azarm, H. (2021). Factors affecting agricultural water security in Ramjerd district. Agricultural Economics and Development, 29(1), 267-292. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.30490/aead.2021.336383.1171
12. De Amorim, W.S., Valduga, I.B., Ribeiro, J.M.P., Williamson, V.G., Krauser, G.E., Magtoto, M.K., & de Andrade, J. B.S.O. (2018). The nexus between water, energy, and food in the context of the global risks: An analysis of the interactions between food, water, and energy security. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 72, 1-11.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2018.05.002
13. Dean, A.J., Fielding, K.S., & Newton, F.J. (2016). Community knowledge about water: who has better knowledge and is this associated with water-related behaviors and support for water-related policies?. PloS One, 11(7), e0159063. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159063
14. Demir, F.B., & Öteleş, Ü.U. (2023). Reflection of water literacy in the environmental education and climate change course teaching program. Bulletin of Educational Studies, 2(2), 50-57.
15. Dev, S.M. (2016). Water management and resilience in agriculture. Economic & Political Weekly, 51(8), 21-24.
16. Elias Nkiaka, E. (2022). Exploring the socioeconomic determinants of water security in developing regions. Water Policy, 24(4), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2022.149
17. Enayati, H. (2022). The water security factor of Mazandaran rice fields is less than 34%". News Agency of the Islamic Republic of Iran. August 3, 1401, news code: 84832510. Available at: https://www.irna.ir/news
18. Farhat, A., Al-Naemi, A., Farooque, A.A., & Phillips, M. (2023). A review on the water dimensions, security, and governance for two distinct regions. Water, 15(1), 208. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010208
19. Florin Fronea, D., & Florin, S. (2015). The importance of water security for sustainable development in the Romanian agri-food sector. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 6, 674–681. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aaspro.2015.08.120
20. Fonseca, A., Andrade, C., & Santos, J.A. (2022). Agricultural water security under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula.Water, 14(5), 768. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14050768
21. García-Tejero, I.F., Carbonell, R., Ordoñez, R., Torres, F.P., & Durán Zuazo, V.H. (2020). Conservation agriculture practices to improve the soil water management and soil carbon storage in Mediterranean rainfed agro-ecosystems. In: Meena, R. (eds) Soil Health Restoration and Management. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8570-4_6
22. Ghoochani, O., Dabiri, D., & Ghanian, M. (2019). Major driver forces of water resources management in the Iranian agricultural sector. Iranian Journal of Public Policy, 5(2), 59-78. https://doi.org/10.22059/ppolicy.2019.72272
23. Godet, M., Durance, P., & Gerber, A. (2008). Strategic foresight la prospective. Cahiers du LIPSOR, 143.
24. Grafton, R.Q., Ward, M.B., To, H., & Kompas, T. (2011). Determinants of residential water consumption: Evidence and analysis from a 10-country household survey. Water Resources Research,47, W08537. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009685
25. Han, M., Qingwang, R., Wang, Y., Du, J., Hao, Z., Sun, F., & Li, D. (2013). Integrated approach to water allocation in river basins. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 139(2), 159-165. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000255
26. Irannejad, E., Mohammadi, H., & Barna, R. (2019). The effect of climate change on the water requirement of rice in Mazandaran province. Natural Geography, 12(46), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.22055/jise.2023.42970.2057
27. Kourgialas, N.N., Psarras, G., Morianou, G., Pisinaras, V., Koubouris, G., Digalaki, N., Malliaraki, S., Aggelaki, K., Motakis, G., & Arampatzis, G. (2022). Good agricultural practices related to water and soil as a means of adaptation of Mediterranean olive growing to extreme climate-water conditions. Sustainability, 14(20), 13673. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142013673
28. Lautze, J., De Silva, S., Giordano, M., & Sanford, L. (2011). Putting the cart before the horse: Water governance and IWRM. In Natural Resources Forum, 35(1), 1-8). Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2010.01339.x
29. Madani, K., AghaKouchak, A., & Mirchi, A. (2016). Iran’s socio-economic drought: Challenges of a water-bankrupt nation. Iranian Studies, 49(6), 997–1016. https://doi.org/10.1080/00210862.2016.1259286
30. Masago, Y., Mishra, B.K., Jalilov, S., Kefi, M., Kumar, P., Dilley, M., & Fukushi, K. (2019). Future outlook of urban water environment in Asian cities; United Nations University: Tokyo, Japan, 2019.
31. Mehrabi, A., Heidarpour, M., & Safavi, H.R. (2021). Conjunctive use management of surfacewater and groundwater resources in drought condition. Case study: West of Qazvin plain irrigation network. Iranian Water Researches Journal, 15(1), 97-109.
32. Mishra, B.K., Kumar, P., Saraswat, C., Chakraborty, S., & Gautam, A. (2021). Water security in a changing environment: Concept, challenges and solutions. Water, 13(4), 490. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040490
33. Mohammadzadeh, M., Shabanali Fami, H., Savari, M., Motaghed, M., Baghaee, M., & afshari, S. (2019). Application of water management strategies by small scale farmers in drought conditions in the Isfahan province. Rural Development Strategies, 6(3), 265-278. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22048/rdsj.2020.206263.1823
34. Nasire Zare, S., & Tahmasebi, A. (2022). An analysis of key drivers of agricultural water resources governance (Case study: Tarom county, Iran). Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, 9(1), 39-52. https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v9i1.2111.1102
35. Ngene, B.U., Nwafor, C.O., Bamigboye, G.O., Ogbiye, A.S., Ogundare, J.O., & Akpan, V.E. (2021). Assessment of water resources development and exploitation in Nigeria: A review of integrated water resources management approach. Heliyon, 7(1).
36. Ningi, T., Taruvinga, A., Zhou, L., & Ngarava, S. (2022). Determinants of water security for rural households: Empirical evidence from Melani and Hamburg communities, Eastern Cape, South Africa. South African Journal for Science and Technology, 40(1), 37-49. https://doi.org/10.36303/SATNT.2021.40.1.802
37. Nkiaka, E. (2022). Exploring the socioeconomic determinants of water security in developing regions. Water Policy, 24(4), 608-625. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2022.149
38. Panel, U., Lele, P.U., Klousia-Marquis, M., & Goswami, S. (2013). Good governance for food, water and energy security. Aquatic Procedia, 1, 44-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aqpro.2013.07.005
39. Pourkhosravani, A., Tohidfam, M., Amini, A., & Jalali, R. (2019). Factors affecting the ineffectiveness of water resources policy in Iran. Political Studies Quarterly, 13(50), 87-109. (In Persian)
40. Raja, O., Parsinejad, M., & Sohrabi, T. (2019). Evaluation of management strategies to reduce water use in Marvdasht-Kharameh study area. Journal Water and Soil Resources Conservations, 8(4), 67-86. (In Persian)
41. Rastogi, M., Kolur, S.M., Burud, A., Sadineni, T., Sekhar, M., Kumar, R., & Rajput, A. (2024). Advancing water conservation techniques in agriculture for sustainable resource management: A review. Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, 28(3), 41-53. https://doi.org/10.9734/jgeesi/2024/v28i3755
42. Regional Water Company of Mazandaran Province. (2023). Report on the status of water resources in Mazandaran province from 1395 to 1402. https://www.mzrw.ir/st/198
43. Rob, D.F., Rossotto Ioris, A.A., & Watson, N. (2017). Water governance and agricultural management: Collaboratively dealing with complex policy problems. In book: Agriculture, Environment and Development (pp.33-58)
44. Sadeghi, S.H., Bahlekeh, M., Zare, S., Zabihi Seilabi, M., Khorshid Sokhangouy, F., & Mumzai, A. (2022). Necessity of strengthening the resilience of the agricultural sector for soil and water conservation. Extension and Development of Watershed Management, 10(37), 67-77. (In Persian)
45. Sakhdari, H., Ziaee, S., Ahmadpour Borazjani, M., & Mohammadi, H. (2023). The effects of adaptation strategies on water resources management in Mashhad plain: The application of hydro-economicbehavioural modeling. Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development, 36(4), 431-445. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20084722.1401.36.4.7.0
46. Salami, H., & Taheri, E. (2019). Assessing the state of water security in provinces of Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 33(1), 75-94. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v0i0.77072
47. Salemi Sarmast, S., & Zahraie, B. (2021). Assessment of water security in Iran at provincial level using a hybrid index. Water and Irrigation Management, 11(3), 617-632. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22059/jwim.2021.327554.903
48. Sangtarashan, A., Mirlatifi, M., & Dehghani Sanij, H. (2021). Effects of improved agricultural field practices on water productivity and water use efficiency indices in the eastern basin of Lake Urmia. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture, 35(1), 35-46. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22092/jwra.2021.123952
49. Savari, M., & Shokati Amghani, M. (2019). Adaptation strategies of small scale farmers in confronting droughts in West Azerbaijan Province. Spatial Planning, 9(4), 17-42. https://doi.org/10.22108/sppl.2019.116467.1373
50. Sharaunga, S., & Mudhara, M. (2016). Factors influencing water-use security among smallholder irrigating farmers in Msinga, KwaZulu-Natal Province. Water Policy, 18(5), 1209–1228. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2016.242
51. Solimani, M. (2023). Adaptation to climate change from the perspective of farmers and experts (Rostam City). Spatial Planning, 13(2), 91-106. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22108/sppl.2023.138568.1740
52. Yu, L., Liu, W., Yang, S., Kong, R., & He, X. (2022). Impact of environmental literacy on farmers’ agricultural green production behavior: Evidence from rural China. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 990981. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.990981
53. Zinati fakhrabad, M.M., & Asghari Moghadam, M. (2021). Future study of security consequences of water resources crisis in border areas of Iran. Geography and Human Relationships, 4(3), 1-17. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22034/gahr.2021.301648.1602