شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌های کسب و کار واحدهای تولیدی طیور

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ملیحه شیبانی نوقابی
• علیرضا کرباسی
• حسین محمدی

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2024.84685.1222

چکیده

امروزه کسب­‌و­کارهای صنعت طیور با چالش‌های متعددی رو به رو می‌باشند؛ زیرا کسب­‌و­کارهای این صنعت، تعدادی از فرآیندها، شیوه‌ها و ریسک‌های منحصر به فرد را باید همزمان مدیریت نمایند. بنابراین، ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ رﯾﺴﮏﻫﺎی کسب‌ و‌کار واحدهای تولیدی طیور، ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﻘﺶ اﺛﺮﮔﺬاری در ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮی این کسب و کارها اﯾﻔﺎء نماید. با توجه به لـزوم افزایش بهـره‌وری صنعت طیور، یکـی از راهکارهای اساسـی، شناسایی ریسک و اندازه‌گیری ریسک‌های موجود این صنعت می‌باشد. شناسایی و کمی‌سازی ریسک می‌تواند هزینه‌ها را برای ذینفعان این صنعت کاهش دهد و کاهش ریسک منجر به برنامه‌ریزی بهتر برای تولید می‌شود. در این راستا، این مطالعه به شناسایی ریسک‌های کسب و کار واحدهای تولیدی طیور استان خراسان رضوی پرداخته شده است و از نظر هدف، کاربردی‌ و از حیث‌ ماهیت‌ و روش، توصیفی‌ پیمایشی‌ و بر پایه پژوهش‌های آمیخته، به‌‌‌‌صورت کیفی و کمی انجام شده است. جامعه آماری مطالعه، خبرگان صنعت طیور می‌باشند که 18 نفر با روش نمونه‌گیری گلوله برفی به‌عنوان نمونه پژوهش مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. نتایج روش دلفی فازی پنج ضلعی نشان داد که پنج ریسک اصلی و 36 ریسک فرعی از 58 ریسک شناسایی شده جزء ریسک‌های کسب و کار واحدهای تولیدی طیور می‌باشند. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که نوسانات قیمت نهاده‌های دامی، قیمت‌گذاری دستوری، نوسانات نرخ ارز، تحریم‌ها، نوسانات قیمت مرغ و تأخیر در دسترسی به نهاده‌ها جزء مهم‌ترین ریسک‌های شناسایی شده می‌باشند. با توجه به نوسانات قیمت نهاده‌های دامی و نوسانات نرخ ارز پیشنهاد می‌شود به تخصیص ارز و کنترل آن توسط سیاست‌های دولت در جهت کاهش نوسانات مذکور اقدام شود و یا به سمت متنوع نمودن مواد خوراکی طیور و فرمول‌بندی جیره جدید خوراک طیور پیش رفت. همچنین برای جلوگیری از نوسانات قیمت مرغ و یا تخم مرغ، پیشنهاد می‌شود که خرید قراردادی این محصولات توسط شرکت پشتیبانی امور دام با نرخ مصوب انجام گیرد و یا هوشمندسازی شبکه توزیع برای جلوگیری از این نوسانات انجام شود. در بازار طیور بهتر است برای هر کیلوگرم مرغ تنها یک قیمت عادلانه با توجه به هزینه‌های تولید مرغداران تعیین شود و یا دخالت دولت در بازار نباشد و دولت اجازه دهد قیمت براساس مکانیزم تقاضا و عرضه صورت گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• دلفی فازی پنج ضلعی
• شناسایی
• صنعت طیور
• مدیریت ریسک

موضوعات

• اقتصاد کشاورزی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification and Prioritization of Business Risks of Poultry Production Units

نویسندگان [English]

• M. Sheibani Nougabi
• A. Karbasi
• H. Mohammadi

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
Today, the businesses of the poultry industry are facing many challenges, because this industry has to manage a number of unique processes, methods and risks at the same time. Therefore, identifying the business risks of poultry production units can play an effective role in reducing the level of vulnerability of these businesses. Considering the need to increase the productivity of the poultry industry, one of the basic solutions is to identify the risk and measure the existing risks of this industry. Risk identification and quantification can reduce costs for industry stakeholders, and risk reduction leads to better production planning. In this regard, this study identifies the business risks of poultry production units in Khorasan Razavi province.
 
Materials and Methods
This study is applied as purpose and descriptive survey in terms of nature and method. This research is based on mixed research, qualitatively and quantitatively. The statistical population is poultry industry experts, 18 of whom were investigated by snowball sampling method as the research sample. This study proposes a new Delphi technique that uses the features of traditional Delphi techniques and the Fuzzy Delphi method. The proposed new Delphi technique is based on the integration of pentagonal fuzzy sets and the Delphi technique.
 
Results and Discussion
The results of the modified pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi method showed that five main risks and 36 secondary risks out of 58 identified risks are part of the business risks of poultry production units. Identified business risks of poultry production units, in order of priority, include inputs price fluctuations, command pricing, exchange rate fluctuations, sanctions, chicken price fluctuations, delay in accessing inputs, fluctuations in the purchase price of day-old chickens, fluctuations in drug and vaccine prices, imported inputs, lack of government support in the matter of production, fluctuations in subsidies to inputs, lack of animal inputs, import of poultry products, Promulgation of various instructions, poultry diseases, lack of liquidity of poultry farmers, bankruptcy of poultry farmers, fluctuations in current costs, losses, lack of medicine and vaccines, lack of expansion of poultry business, lack of confidence of poultry farmers in the government, fluctuations in profitability, investment, seasonal fluctuations in egg demand, dependence of poultry farmers on Special suppliers, supply of day-old chicks, lack of energy, exclusivity of the livestock and poultry feed supply system, egg price fluctuations, seasonal fluctuations in chicken production, seasonal fluctuations in chicken demand, weakness in providing working capital facilities to poultry farmers, lack of skilled human resources in time Appropriate, lack of technical knowledge of advanced technologies and lack of variety of poultry food ingredients.
 
Conclusion
The business of poultry production units is facing various challenges and risks, and due to the many risks of this industry, production in this industry is facing problems and it is not possible to plan for it, and production will be disrupted in the future. Therefore, in this research, an effort was made to fully identify the business risks of poultry production units. In order to complete and finalize the business risks of poultry production units, the pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi method was used. In this regard, a questionnaire was prepared that included two parts. The first part is about the survey and information about the background of the respondents, and the second part includes the ranking of 54 identified risks. Fuzzy Delphi method in this study was done in two rounds and based on the opinion of experts, 4 more risks were added to the total of 54 risks, and finally 58 risks were analyzed using Fuzzy Delphi method. In Fuzzy Delphi, the selection of risk components among all the components that were identified in the research literature was based on the accepted threshold criterion. The results of the second round of modified pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi showed that there are 36 important sub-risks in the sector of production, market, financial, institutional and personal business risks of poultry production units. Considering the price fluctuations of livestock inputs and exchange rate fluctuations, it is suggested to allocate currency and control it by government policies in order to reduce mentioned fluctuations, or move towards diversifying poultry feed ingredients and formulating new poultry feed rations. Also, in order to avoid fluctuations in the price of chicken or eggs, it is suggested to make the distribution network smarter to prevent these fluctuations. In the poultry market, it is better to set a fair price for each kilogram of chicken according to the production costs of poultry farmers, or not to interfere with the government in the market and allow the government to set the price based on the supply and demand mechanism.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Identification
• Fuzzy Pentagonal Delphi
• Poultry industry
• Risk management

©2024 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source.

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