Research Article
Mehdi Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody; Ebrahim Javdan; katayoon Shemshadi
Abstract
IntroductionDuring the last decade, due to the increase in food prices, the cost of a healthy diet in Iran has greatly increased. Although the government's support policies have been aimed at improving the living conditions of households, but the cost and income information of the Iranian Statistics ...
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IntroductionDuring the last decade, due to the increase in food prices, the cost of a healthy diet in Iran has greatly increased. Although the government's support policies have been aimed at improving the living conditions of households, but the cost and income information of the Iranian Statistics Center shows that due to inflationary conditions and the its impact on real income and purchasing power of consumers, these programs have not had the necessary effect in reducing poverty and food insecurity. While reducing poverty and increasing the food security index is a requirement for independent countries like Iran. In this regard, knowing the current situation of poverty, food insecurity and factors influencing it is not only the main condition for preparing future plans, but it is necessary to continue this work with the aim of monitoring and evaluating the results of implemented plans and actions.Materials and Methods In in the present study, the spatial distribution of poverty and food insecurity in the urban areas of Iran in 1401 has been investigated and then the factors affecting food insecurity have been identified. In order to achieve these goals, the nutritional performance matrix was drawn and calculated per capita calories in 1401 using the household income-expenditure information of Iran Statistics Center. In the following, using the mentioned information, the Aggregate Household Food Security Index (AHFSI) and the Foster, Greere and Thorbeke (FGT) poverty index were calculated and based on these indices, the spatial distribution of poverty and food insecurity in urban areas of Iran was analyzed. Finally, the impact of economic and demographic variables on food insecurity was analyzed in the framework of the logit model.Results and Discussion According to the results, the urban areas of the country are in low food security conditions; So that, only 45% of people have food security and about 55% of the residents of urban areas are either facing food insecurity or are on the border of food insecurity. On the other hand, the per capita calorie intake in the urban areas of the country is 2540 kcal, and generally these calories are supplied from cereals. In addition, there is inequality in the intake of calories in different provinces of the country, and the average intake of calories varies between 1988-3196 kcal among the provinces. Examining the status of food poverty indicators also shows that the average head count, gap and intensity of poverty in urban areas are 55.1%, 15.2% and 6% respectively. Based on these indicators, it can be said that 55.1% of the population of the urban areas of the country had food poverty in 1401 and the calorie intake of the poor households in these areas was 15.2% less than the minimum required daily calories; Therefore, to eliminate poverty, the caloric intake of poor households should be increased by 15.2%. Finally, the results of the logit model estimation showed that the variables of age, employment status, working hours of the head of the household, subsidy, income and food diversity have a positive and significant effect on the food security of the households, but the Family size has a negative effect on the food security. In addition, the two variables gender and literacy of the head of the household did not have a significant effect on the food security in urban areas of Iran.Conclusions In this regard, although the long-term solution is to increase household purchasing power, stabilize and reduce commodity prices through strengthening production and supply, but in the short-term, increasing salaries and wages in line with the inflation rate and increasing social support programs for the Low income deciels and weak society should be taken into consideration. In other words, income policies that can directly or indirectly increase the level of income and thus the purchasing power of the household, can be considered as a scientific and effective solution for food security. Moreover, the social support and poverty alleviation programs should be targeted and applied according to the needs and deficiencies in different geographical, demographic and income conditions. Finally, it should be acknowledged that improving the nutritional literacy of households can increase the nutritional knowledge and awareness of households, and therefore, by improving the variety and quality of the food they consume, it can lead to an increase in food security in urban areas of Iran.
Research Article
Fatemeh Razzaghi; Taher Azizi Khalkheili; Ali Akbar Barati
Abstract
Introduction The lack of fresh water resources is one of the main crises that the world is increasingly facing with the constant availability of renewable water sources in the world. Therefore, increasing risks related to water is an important issue. The water crisis reduces crops production and negatively ...
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Introduction The lack of fresh water resources is one of the main crises that the world is increasingly facing with the constant availability of renewable water sources in the world. Therefore, increasing risks related to water is an important issue. The water crisis reduces crops production and negatively affects food security. Due to the increase in demand for food, agriculture section is under more pressure because of both water crisis and more demand for food. Agricultural sector has been also facing with water shortage due to climate changes caused by the more global warming and low precipitation. Water crisis and climate changes leading to a decrease in the crops production. Now, agriculture and livelihood of villagers has become unstable more than any time. Considering the importance of irrigated farming in Mazandaran province in the country's food security, the present study was conducted with the aim of identifying the most important variables that affecting water security in Mazandaran province's.Materials and Methods The statistical population of the research was included 16 subject experts with research or executive experience in the fields related to water studies, water security and climate change. The selection of them was done in a purposeful way. The data collection tool was a researcher made questionnaire and the data collection method was face-to-face interview. At first, to identify the variables involved in water security a subject literature review and several semi-structured interviews with subject experts were conducted. Then, the experts were asked to evaluate the cross-effects of the identified variables through pairwise comparisons and in the form of the MICMAC questionnaire. Finally, the data were analysis using MICMAC software.Results and Discussion According to the results, among the studied variables, "knowledge and environmental literacy of villagers" and "reduction of precipitation due to climate change" (input variables) are two important key variables that directly and indirectly affect water security and therefore should be considered. The variables "best management of appropriate farm operations", "volume and diversity of water resources" and "good management and governance of agricultural water" are intermediate variables, with high influence and high dependence. Based on the direct influence network intensity of the key variables involved in water security, variables such as “best management of suitable farm operations”, “good management and governance of agricultural water”, “the degree of resilience of farmers to adapt to climate change” play a central and sensitive role. Based on the indirect relationships, “best management of appropriate farm operations”, “the degree of resilience of farmers to adapt to climate change”, “risk management of ecological hazards and climate change” have the greatest indirect effect on other variables and should be considered by policy makers and planners in this field.Conclusions Water crisis is a major challenge for agricultural activities and consequently for food security. Considering the vital role that Mazandaran province plays in the agricultural products production and as a result food security, the present study examined the most important variables affecting food security. The findings of this study showed that "good management and governance of agricultural water" has the most direct impact on water crisis management. Good water governance can be taken into consideration with the relative strengthening and synergistic participation of public and private sectors and non-governmental organizations in line with the planning and implementation of food security policy with the water-energy-food nexus approach. The role of increasing the environmental knowledge and literacy of villagers by providing effective educational-promotional services such as farm filed school is very important on the farmer's resilience and adaptability. On the other hand, variables such as good water management and governance, development of new irrigation systems and technologies, zoning of agricultural lands and the explanation of the appropriate cultivation pattern for each zone (such as planting crops with low water demand and high added value include medicinal plants) are undeniable impact on the livelihood resilience of the farmer's family and adaptation to climate change conditions. Diversify the livelihood resources of farming households with the participation of household women, promoting climate-oriented businesses that are compatible with climate changes (such as agricultural tourism and handicrafts), using drought-resistant species, changing the date of cultivation, developing greenhouse cultivation, medicinal plants and modernization of irrigation, change of history and cultivation pattern play an important role in the resilience of farmers to adapt climate change.
Research Article
wahhab Qelich
Abstract
Introduction The changes of global environmental have become a big challenge for the human community. Therefore, there is a need to provide special support to environmental projects in all dimensions, such as financial and economic dimensions. Paying attention to ethics and human and social values along ...
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Introduction The changes of global environmental have become a big challenge for the human community. Therefore, there is a need to provide special support to environmental projects in all dimensions, such as financial and economic dimensions. Paying attention to ethics and human and social values along with the concerns of environmental protection while doing economic activities makes activities in various economic and financial sectors such as the banking system, manufacturing and industrial enterprises, insurance companies, etc. is different than ever. It is necessary to put aside the purely market-oriented approaches focused on the rapid development of financial markets at any cost, so that other policies with greater health can replace them. Meanwhile, the concept called "green banking" is one of the most important examples of this support. This kind of banking, as an important part of ethical banking, plays a special role in protecting the environment. With a comprehensive explanation of green banking and by using theoretical studies and international experiences and obtaining opinions from relevant experts and experts, this research identified the factors affecting the trend of the country's banking network towards green banking by using the Delphi method, questionnaire analysis and Friedman's test.Materials and Methods The current research is completely practical in terms of its purpose and qualitative and descriptive-analytical in terms of implementation method. First, by using the Delphi method, the factors affecting the tendency of the banking to implement green banking are identified, and then the relevant data is collected using a questionnaire. In the following, the known factors are ranked and prioritized with Friedman's test. The statistical population of this research was all managers and banking experts in Tehran. The standard statistical sample used in the Delphi method is 10 to 30 questionnaires, of which 28 questionnaires are considered in this research. With the follow-ups, 23 questionnaires were completed and used in the research analysis. Also, 142 questionnaires have been prepared and collected in the implementation of Friedman's test. At this stage, the Likert scale has been used for research questions and scored by managers, branch heads and banking experts. A combined method has been used in the collection of research statistical data. At first, the concepts of green banking and ethical banking have been explained by using the library method and conducting free theoretical and field studies. In the following, with the Delphi technique and obtaining the opinions of relevant experts and experts, the most important factors affecting the tendency of the banking network to implement green banking have been calculated. In the following, the remaining important factors have been added to the set of factors with the method of intellectual generation.Results and Discussion Based on the results of the research, four main economic, structural, managerial and social criteria were identified in order to influence this tendency. In the sub-criteria section, the high inflation rate, the relative cheapness of energy prices and the presence of profitable parallel markets along with green deposits are mentioned as the most important reasons for the low tendency towards green banking. Also, the laws and regulations and the legal system, the recruitment system, the promotion and encouragement of bank managers and employees, the central bank's supervisory system, the senior managers' attitudes towards environmental issues, corporate governance, the bank's internal supervision, the attention to green banking in the selection and decision Customers, society's attitude towards environmental issues and the culture of demand among the most important sub-criteria affecting the trend of the Iranian banking towards green banking have been evaluated and introduced.Conclusions This research tried to identify and analyze the factors affecting the tendency of Iranian banking network towards green banking with a more comprehensive explanation of green banking and by using theoretical studies and international experiences and obtaining opinions from relevant experts and experts. Based on the research results, four main structural, economic, managerial and social factors influencing this trend were identified. Surveys showed that in the first place, economic factors were more effective than other factors in the trend of the banking towards green banking. Also, in the following categories, structural, managerial and social factors have the most influence on the trend of the country's banking network towards green banking. It is suggested that for the greater desire and tendency of the banking to implement and realize green banking, it is necessary to improve the economic components with the aim of more stabilization, inflation control, strengthening of supervisory dimensions and balance sheet reform of the banking network. Also, reforming the legal system in the supervision and support of green bankers, reforming the incentive and recruitment system, strengthening the attitude of senior bank managers and the general public to the necessity of protecting the environment, as well as reviewing the frameworks and processes of corporate governance in banks with a green perspective to encourage Iranian banking, is necessary towards green banking. In the meantime, undoubtedly the role of the central bank as the supervisory body and upstream regulatory body in reforming the general structures of the banking system and improving the management situation of the public sector of the banking network can be useful and effective in increasing the tendency of banks to establish green banking and comply with its criteria.
Research Article
Mehdi Mahmoudi; Hosein Mohammadi; A. Karbasi
Abstract
Introduction According to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 2.7 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population ...
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Introduction According to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 2.7 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population growth) will increase by 150 to 170 percent by 2050. Today, one of the problems and threats facing the realization of food security in human societies is existence of an unusual amount of agricultural product waste. Every year, about one third and approximately 1.3 billion tons of total food production used by humans with a monetary value of 936 billion dollars, it is lost or wasted, which means that 0.9 million hectares and 306 square kilometers of water required for the production of agricultural products are wasted every year. The presence of this amount of waste in Iran's agricultural products indicates a significant waste of resources in country, and management of the country's resources (especially water) according to Iran's climatic situation and forecasting and drawing the future; It is telling that (resources used in agricultural sector) will soon become an important challenge. Considering that in country, 93.5% of water resources are used in agriculture, other issues such as pollution of water reserves, transfer of agricultural water to other sectors and low efficiency of water consumption in agriculture, increasing demand for water, increasing periods drought, phenomenon of fine dust, human impact on natural resources, etc. affect the amount of agricultural production.Subgroups of fruits and vegetables have the largest share in the consumption basket of households, but there are no specific statistics for recent years about share of consumption per capita of households (separated by products used) in Iran. It should be remembered that the amount of waste created by consumer’s ranges from 1 kg/household/week to 4.5 kg/person/week based on consumer's behavioral characteristics; it can be variable. Therefore, in this research, considering the importance of agricultural inputs (especially water) for the production of these agricultural products and the high percentage of share in consumption portfolio of households; Subgroups of fruits and vegetables were selected.Materials and Methods The research case study believes that in addition to consumers of Mashhad; there is heterogeneity among retail and wholesale shops as well as main market squares of city, and each can have a different percentage of waste from agricultural products. These differences can be variable based on the urban area and based on these differences; A model should be chosen that can take into account the heterogeneity of the studied society. Based on this, the multilevel Bayesian model was used as a more suitable tool, which is mentioned in following section on the modeling method of this model.Results and Discussion Based on the results in table (9), gender variable according to mean value of its parameter distribution (0.8285) is in the estimated confidence interval; It is one of the variables affecting reduction of waste of fruit and vegetable products in such a way that gender of being a woman and the management of family affairs by women (compared to men); it reduces waste. For variable of education level of consumers, waste created by fruit and vegetable products is effective only in diploma to bachelor group (compared to education level group to diploma) and according to negative sign of average distribution of its parameter (-1.4599) it shows that this category they produce more waste than people. The variable of household size has an effect on amount of waste of fruit and vegetable products (parameter distribution mean = 0.3151) and increasing dimension and size of the household has reduced waste. Also, the number of people working in the family (parameter distribution mean = 0.3733) has reduced the waste of fruit and vegetable products, and this can be because with increase in number of workers in families; level of income can change and products with better quality levels can be purchased. The variable of people's type of job has an effect on reducing the waste of fruit and vegetable products, and with improvement of quality of the job, amount of waste decreases. The relative price parameter of agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.1475) reduces waste formed on agricultural products by consumers. By increasing relative price of agricultural products (e.g. fruits and vegetables) to consumer by comparing the value of that product with other goods and other products; He realizes that the consumption of that product will create the least amount of waste. Parameter of distribution location of agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.1744) reduces waste formed on agricultural products by consumers. Suitable places for product distribution can give better access and power of choice to consumer, and based on this, consumer can avoid bulk purchases or worry about running out of products in nearby stores; He avoids and the amount of waste formed by him decreases. Product parameter (goods or services offered to customer) for agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = -0.1902) causes an increase in the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. In other words, with increase in the supply of products (fruits and vegetables), consumers become more willing to buy and consume (like consuming a specific product during the supply season), and this causes increase in amount of purchases to affect the amount of waste generated. Parameter of promoting agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.0683) reduces the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. With better introduction of product and advertisements related to the production process until its consumption; consumer understands the value of the product and tries to reduce its waste.Conclusions The final results of research showed that individual and mixed marketing factors can play an effective role in reducing waste. Based on this, it can be said that in addition to importance of each link of the food supply chain; in consumer level, it is possible to contribute to reducing waste of agricultural products by using mixed marketing tools (including price, product, promotion and appropriate location of product). Therefore, consumer behavior studies are considered to be one of low-cost solutions to reduce amount of agricultural product waste according to individual-social characteristics and effective role of marketing mix.
Research Article-en
Human Hashemzadeh; nazanin yousefian; Sasan Esfandiari; Alireza Karbasi; Ali Firoozzare
Abstract
A data mining approach to consumers’ choice of retail market: The case of municipal retail markets in IranAbstractUrban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence ...
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A data mining approach to consumers’ choice of retail market: The case of municipal retail markets in IranAbstractUrban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer
Research Article
saber kalhori; leili abolhassany; mahmood sabouhi; Maryam Sarkhosh
Abstract
Introduction
Given the rapid process of industrialization, expansion of agriculture, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and the intensification of climatic conditions, air quality has rapidly deteriorated in recent years. One of the most important issues and challenges facing the world today is air ...
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Introduction
Given the rapid process of industrialization, expansion of agriculture, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and the intensification of climatic conditions, air quality has rapidly deteriorated in recent years. One of the most important issues and challenges facing the world today is air pollution, particularly PM2.5 pollution. This problem has evolved into one of the complex and serious dilemmas affecting the lives of people worldwide. Exposure to high levels of air pollution has negative health implications. The present study aims to measure the willingness to pay of Mashhad city residents for the improvement of PM2.5 pollution and identify the factors influencing this willingness to pay.
Materials and Methods
In this study, the level of individuals' willingness to pay was calculated using one of the methods for valuing environmental goods known as contingent valuation and the multiple-bound discrete choice model. This model can calculate the willingness to pay based on certainty levels. In this research, the willingness to pay was estimated for the certainty level of "definitely yes." For this purpose, a set of 13 willingness-to-pay proposals was generated, considering 200,000 Toman as the highest proposed level and 10,000 Toman as the lowest. Subsequently, the econometric model of ordered logit regression was employed to explain the factors influencing the willingness of Mashhad citizens to pay for the improvement of air quality. The research was conducted within the statistical population of Mashhad city residents, and 343 questionnaires were gathered using a two-stage cluster sampling method to ensure a comprehensive and representative sample for the study. In this study, the dependent variable is the public's willingness to pay for the improvement of air quality concerning particulate matter PM2.5. The independent variables encompass socio-economic information of individuals, including education level, age, gender, marital status, child's presence in the family, family size, chronic respiratory diseases (such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, chronic bronchitis, etc.), and individuals' income.
Results and Discussion
The findings reveal that, out of the 13 available monetary proposals, the frequency distribution of willingness-to-pay, specifically at the certainty level "definitely yes," comprises 4 monetary proposals. These monetary levels encompass amounts less than 10,000 Toman, ranging from 45,000 to 58,000 Toman, between 95,000 and 120,000 Toman, and between 155,000 and 200,000 Toman. According to the results, about 22.45% of respondents unequivocally express a willingness to pay less than 10,000 Toman for air quality improvement. Approximately 60.06% of participants indicate a willingness to pay between 45,000 and 58,000 Toman. Furthermore, 5.83% of respondents are willing to pay between 95,000 and 120,000 Toman, while 11.66% definitively agree to pay between 155,000 and 200,000 Toman. After estimating the ordered logit model and its estimated parameters, the average willingness to pay of the Mashhad residents for the improvement of PM2.5 pollutant quality was estimated to be 55,488 Toman. Additionally, the results of the ordered logit model indicated that variables such as education level, age, respiratory diseases, and income have a positive and significant effect on individuals' willingness to pay. Moreover, family size was found to have a significant negative impact on individuals' willingness to pay.
Conclusions
Improving air quality and reducing pollution typically entail high costs, extensive efforts, and the collaboration of all members of society. Whether individuals are willing and prepared to contribute financially to enhance air quality is a crucial question that requires exploration. The present research endeavors to address this important inquiry by investigating the readiness and willingness of individuals to pay for air quality improvement, along with identifying the influencing factors on this willingness to pay. Based on the findings of this research, it is recommended that the government and municipal authorities, with consideration to the calculated value for air pollution and the respective contributions of various sources to air pollution, impose taxes and levies on each pollutant sector. Furthermore, it is possible to enhance air quality by implementing educational programs tailored to individuals with diverse educational backgrounds. Using technology and social media to increase environmental awareness among the youth can be instrumental. Additionally, the development of efficient and cost-effective public transportation systems, along with special discounts for individuals with lower incomes, can contribute to reducing pollution. Creating financial programs and incentives to improve access for these individuals to less polluting resources, such as cleaner vehicles or more efficient heating systems, is another way to improve air quality.
Research Article
Alireza Sani Heidary; Mahmoud Daneshvar Kakhki; Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni; Hosein Mohammadi
Abstract
Introduction
Considering being located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, Iran is influenced by the most severe impacts of drought. Drought is considered a major threat to the livelihood of rural households. In the last drought, rural households have suffered significant losses and consequences, ...
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Introduction
Considering being located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, Iran is influenced by the most severe impacts of drought. Drought is considered a major threat to the livelihood of rural households. In the last drought, rural households have suffered significant losses and consequences, which highlights their unpreparedness to deal with this natural hazard. Therefore, every society must take measures to deal with changes, threats and their effective management. Meanwhile, the review of the country's drought management programs shows that the policy-makers have always focused on increasing production even in the critical conditions of the recent droughts. That is, they have prioritized the policy of increasing production and providing the basic needs of the growing population over providing livelihood and improving the resilience of rural households. However, the key to improving the rural households situation in drought conditions is to pay more attention to households resilience capacity, which indicates their ability to adapt and be flexible. Therefore, considering the sensitivity of the issue of resilience as a dominant approach effective on the dimensions of life and livelihood of rural households on the one hand and the lack of a comprehensive study on its underlying factors, on the other hand, this research seeks to answer two questions: First, what is the resilience level of rural households against drought? Second, what factors influence the resilience levels of rural households in drought conditions?
Materials and Methods
The statistical population of this study is 16,817 rural households in Zehak city, located in Sistan and Baluchistan province, which are strongly influenced by different climatic events such as drought, excessive heat, low rainfall and 120-day winds. A stratified random sampling method was used to determine the sample size. According to Cochran's formula, the sample size is estimated to be 376 households. Data were collected by completing multidimensional questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews from households in 2023. To measure the resilience capacity of rural households, the theoretical framework of TANGO based on the estimation of the three capacities of absorption, adaptation and transfer was used through the factor analysis method, in which attitudinal and mental aspects of resilience are also taken into account. Finally, partial proportional odds model has been used to evaluate the influencing factors on the resilience capacity of rural households.
Results and Discussion
The results of the state of resilience capacity of rural households in the region indicated that the average value of their resilience capacity is 26.27, which shows the low level of resilience capacity in the region. Also, the households of the region are in a bad situation based on the absorption, adaptation and transmission capacities, and the households of the region have a stronger transmission capacity than the absorption and adaptation capacity against drought. The results of grouping the resilience capacity of households reveal that 32.45% are in the vulnerable group, 28.19% are in the relative resilience group, 22.61% are in the resilient group and 16.76% are in the high resilience group. The results show that more than 60% of households are at very low levels of resilience. Finally, the partial proportional odds model results demonstrated that the variables of education of the head of the household, skill level in agricultural activities, savings, household income, number of household contacts with agricultural extension, membership of the head of the household in social groups and access to microcredits have a positive effect and variables of the value of the loss of agricultural products and the number of livestock lost have a negative effect on the resilience capacity of rural households against drought.
Conclusion
According to the findings, policy-makers should prioritize strengthening the variables that determine the resilience capacity and its dimensions in the implementation of drought management programs so that households can absorb drought shocks without damaging their basic components. Also, policy-makers should target specific categories of risks, dimensions of vulnerability and resilience in different time periods (before, during, and after shock) in order to choose comprehensive strategies to build and increase resilience. For instance, before a shock, better access to early detection of emerging climate risks could help farmers plan their cropping activities accordingly. Access to climate information allows for forward-looking adaptation that reduces the impact of shocks and increases resilience.
Research Article
Hossein Fouladi; Hamid Amirnejad; somayeh shirzadi Laskookalayeh
Abstract
In recent decades, the issue of climate change has become one of the global issues and has affected the agricultural sector. The continuation of agriculture regardless of the water shortage crisis has had an inappropriate effect on the sustainability and growth of this sector. On the other hand, the ...
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In recent decades, the issue of climate change has become one of the global issues and has affected the agricultural sector. The continuation of agriculture regardless of the water shortage crisis has had an inappropriate effect on the sustainability and growth of this sector. On the other hand, the destructive effect of excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides on water, soil, health of ecosystems, humans and other living beings is undeniable. For this reason, the void of using an efficient model that can provide all economic and environmental aspects at the same time was completely felt. The aim of this study was to provide an optimal cropping pattern using the integrated method of Goal and Grey planning. For this purpose, the farmers of the agronomy sub-sector of Tajan Basin were selected as the statistical population. In this regard, time series information was collected from the aggregation of the average data of 401 settlements located in this area during the years 2017-2021 from the annual reports of experts.
Materials and Methods
The Linear Programming Model quantifies an optimal way of integrating constraints to satisfy the objective function to optimize crop production and profits for irrigation farmers. To use linear programming, you must convert your problem into a mathematical model. To do this, you need an objective such as maximizing profit or minimizing losses. The model must also include decision variables that affect those objectives, and constraints that limit what you can do. So, the Linear Programming Model is a single-objective method. Goal Programming is an extension of Linear Programming in which targets are specified for a set of constraints. Goal programming is used to perform three types of analysis: Determine the required resources to achieve a desired set of objectives. Determine the degree of attainment of the goals with the available resources. Providing the best satisfying solution under a varying amount of resources and priorities of the goals. So, the Goal Programming Model is a multi-objective method. The Grey system theory is identified as an effective methodology that can be used to solve uncertain problems with partially known information. Grey modelling approach is using accident data for estimating the model parameters. The model can reflect the dynamics, balance conflicts of the multidimensional targets of cropping patterns, and promote the sustainable use of cultivated land. For achieving different goals in unstable economic and environmental conditions, we used Goal-Grey that was obtained from the integration of Goal planning and Grey planning. The Goal-Grey model, by considering the uncertainty in the data, leads to overlap between the economic and environmental goals and provides the scope of cultivation for the selected products.
Results and Discussion
By estimating the Linear Model, crops like wheat and canola are deleted from the cropping pattern and the cultivation area of barley and high-yielding long grain rice are increased by 644 and 31%, respectively. Also, in this pattern, the cultivation area of high-quality long grain rice and maize are reduced by 89 and 10%, respectively. The implementation of this model will increase the gross profit of the farmers of Tajan region by 14% without changing in the current amount of inputs and only through changing the crop composition. Also, the findings indicated that by implementing the Linear Model, 5, 13 and 10 percent savings are made in the consumption of phosphate, nitrogen and potash fertilizers, respectively. The amount of herbicide and fungicide consumption in the Linear Model is exactly equal to the current model of the region. However, the implementation of this model will lead to a 5% increase in the consumption of insecticides poison. The amount of irrigation water consumption in the Linear Model was calculated to be 2% less than the current model of the region. In addition, the results indicate that by estimating the Goal-Grey Model, only canola is removed from the cropping pattern. Also, in order to achieve the defined goals in this study, the cultivation area of wheat and maize should be equal to 208 and 7356 hectares respectively. However, because of the amount of inputs are variable, the domain of cultivation of other crops can be flexible; So that high-quality long grain rice can be cultivated between 970 to 18157 hectares. Also, the cultivation area of long-grain rice can vary from 7654 to 9995 hectares. In this model, barley can be removed from the crop composition like the linear pattern or cultivated on a maximum of 2553 hectares. The implementation of the Goal-Grey model will lead to a maximum 2% increase in the gross profit of the farmers of Tajan region compared to the current model of this region. Also, by implementing the Goal-Grey Model, on average, phosphate, nitrogen, and potash fertilizer consumption is saved by 16, 27, and 20 percent, respectively. In addition, with the implementation of the Goal-Grey Model, the consumption of agricultural pesticides will decrease from 733 to 355 thousand liters on average.
Conclusion
The Linear Model is prepared based on the current conditions of the region, and due to it is single-objective and also considers fixed parameters, it cannot provide a suitable program for farmers in drought or wet periods or in the conditions of lack of inputs. The findings indicated that in the current conditions of the region, there is excessive consumption of chemical inputs and irrigation water. The Goal-Gray model, by considering the uncertainty in the data, leads to overlap between the economic and environmental goals and provides the domain of cultivation area for the selected crops.
Acknowledgement
We are grateful to the experts of agronomy management and plant conservation management of Mazandaran Province Agricultural Jihad Organization and Sari City Agricultural Jihad Management who cooperated in data collection. This article is taken from the preliminary results of a doctoral dissertation with material and intellectual rights related to Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources; by this way, that university is appreciated.
Research Article
Mohsen Rafiee Sefid Dashti; Seyed Mehdi. Mirdamadi; syed jamal farajollah hosyni; Shahab Alddin Shokri
Abstract
In any society, man is known as the main axis of development. What is used as a means of producing inputs in any country depends to a large extent on the capacity of manpower. Training and capacity building of human resources is a strategy for sustainable development, therefore, in order to follow the ...
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In any society, man is known as the main axis of development. What is used as a means of producing inputs in any country depends to a large extent on the capacity of manpower. Training and capacity building of human resources is a strategy for sustainable development, therefore, in order to follow the path of sustainable development, every country needs the empowerment and capacity building of human resources, subordinate institutions, organizations, environmental and ecological conditions. For this reason, capacity building has a significant impact on the empowerment of people and groups. and it increases the level of knowledge, strengthens skills, instills values and encourages the necessary behaviors to actualize the potential of the organization's employees, in fact, the capacity building of extension experts is necessary for the effective functioning of agriculture. Training and capacity building of extension experts is an important strategy for the development of sustainable agriculture. which can increase the resilience of agricultural activities and food security through the strategy of adapting and building capacity to climate change and removing its obstacles. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the capacity of extension experts in the entire value chain of agricultural products. On the other hand, due to its high dependence on climatic conditions, agriculture is exposed to the risks of climate change more than other sectors. gives, so that some areas face increased heat waves, floods, climate changes and forest fires. Therefore, in order to adapt to climate change, reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions and increase production, it is necessary to develop smart climate agriculture. United Nations (FAO) has been introduced at the Hague Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change in 2010. This type of agriculture is an approach that helps farmers adapt to changes in climate conditions and ultimately reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.Smart climate agriculture is the development of agriculture to deal with the challenges of climate change. The climate-smart agriculture framework provides a platform for assessing how livelihood assets are performing and how they are affected by policy processes and structures, as well as the technologies required for the transformation of restorative agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture seeks to intensify linkages between global, national and local agricultural stakeholders by accelerating cross-scale adaptation and synergies between them.
Therefore, climate-smart agriculture offers a triple win-win effect that can continuously improve agricultural production capacity, income and adaptability to climate change, reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions, and thus achieve national food security goals and promote sustainable development and provide solutions for the problems facing agricultural development. In fact, smart climate agriculture is an approach that seeks to adjust the mutual effects of agriculture and the phenomenon of climate change. In general, the climate changes that have occurred in the last decade have a direct impact on the agriculture of the region, causing challenges in the existence of water, the water needs of agricultural products, It has created production and income for rural households. Decrease in the amount of rain and irregularity in periodic rains (floods), frost, heatstroke, storms, hot winds, hail, climate changes, torrential rains, sudden changes in temperature, presence of micro-pollens, increase in pests and deterioration of forests are among the climate changes reported in Iran and three provinces are studied. On the other hand, in order to reduce climate changes in the agricultural sector, improving the level of knowledge, information and skills of extension experts is considered one of the important and effective factors in capacity building and development of the agricultural sector in Iran.
In fact, considering the importance of the subject and the fact that so far no independent study has investigated the effective factors in building the capacity of extension experts in the development of smart climate agriculture, the researcher intends to fill this gap. Therefore, by identifying the effective factors in building the capacity of agricultural extension experts in smart climate, farmers and villagers can be introduced to the importance and methods of using smart climate agriculture in the direction of sustainable agricultural development. Based on this, in the current research, it has been tried to explain the pattern of effective factors in capacity building of extension experts in the development of smart climate agriculture. In other words, the general goal of this research is to explain the effective factors in building the capacity of extension experts in the development of smart climate agriculture. In general, in order to achieve the mentioned goal, the current research seeks to answer the question: What is the explanatory model of the effective factors in the capacity building of extension experts in the development of smart climate agriculture? Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors in the face of climate change. This research was done with the aim of explaining the pattern of effective factors in building the capacity of extension experts in the development of smart climate agriculture in the northwestern provinces of the country. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method. The statistical population of the study includes the extension experts of East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan and Ardabil provinces in the number of 4256 people, of which 354 people were selected as a statistical sample based on Cochran's formula and randomly selected. Data were collected through a questionnaire. In this research, structural equation modeling and the partial least squares method (PLS3) were used to test the assumptions and model fit. The findings of the research showed that infrastructural factors, economic factors, social factors, organizational factors, cultural factors, educational factors, legal factors and technical factors have a positive and significant effect on the capacity building of extension experts in the development of smart climate agriculture.
Research Article
Seyed mohammad jafar esfahani; Elham Barikani
Abstract
Introduction
Many governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major ...
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Introduction
Many governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major problem, especially in developing countries. On the one hand, the government aims to boost food production by offering agricultural subsidies. On the other hand, the excessive use of chemical inputs due to these subsidies has raised concerns about environmental pollution. Therefore, one of the most significant global challenges is to balance agricultural production to meet the increasing demand of the growing population while maintaining the quality of the environment. In general, any change in the government's support policies in the agricultural sector can lead to fluctuations in input and product prices, affecting farmers' profits. Consequently, such changes can influence cultivation patterns and the consumption of agricultural inputs. So, it leads to a change in environmental impact. Therefore, before making any changes in policy, it is essential to examine the economic and environmental impacts and base decisions on economic and environmental considerations.
Materials and Methods
This study uses positive mathematical programming (PMP) to study the environmental impact of chemical fertilizers’ subsidies change and transfer subsidies to crops in Zarandieh city of Markazi province. The necessary information was collected through the statistical sources of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad for the crop year 2023 for the three crops including irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, and silage corn, which occupies more than 85 percent of the cultivated area of this region. In the first stage, the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by each product was calculated, and then the environmental impact of different subsidy policies was investigated. To calculate the greenhouse gas emissions, the emission coefficient of each of the inputs that have been cited in various studies was used. To model and analyze the data, positive mathematical programming with the cost function approach was used. Excel and GAMS software has been used to run the models.
Results and Discussion
The results of the study showed that the highest amount of greenhouse gas emissions is related to corn silage, and electricity, diesel, and chemical fertilizers have the largest share of the greenhouse gas emissions. The results of the simulation of the cultivation pattern of the region in the case where only chemical fertilizers include N-fertiliser, P-fertiliser, and K-fertiliser separately and together have an increase by 25, 50, 75, and 100 percent showed that with the increase in the input price, the cultivated area and the income of farmers in the region decreases. Also, increasing the price of P-fertilizer can reduce environmental impact more than increasing the price of another chemical fertilizer. To investigate the environmental impact of reallocating subsidies to products instead of chemical inputs, a situation was simulated in which the price of chemical inputs increased by 100 percent and the price of the product increased by 5 and 10 percent, respectively, and the results of the model showed that the lowest environmental impact of crop production per hectare occurs when the price of chemical fertilizers increases by 100% and the price of the product increases by 5%. According to the results of the study, it seems that allocating subsidies to products instead of production inputs can have more favorable environmental consequences. In other words, when the subsidy is allocated to the product instead of chemical inputs, the environmental impact of crop production in this area would be reduced and the amount of emissions per hectare of farm or million Tomans of gross profit would be less compared to other situations.
Conclusion
It is necessary to support the agricultural sector to boost food production but these supports should be done with the least environmental impact. According to the findings of this study, if subsidies are given to agricultural products instead of inputs, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced while maintaining the area of crops and the amount of gross profit of farmers. The policy of setting a guaranteed price for basic agricultural products in Iran can be a suitable tool to realize this. In other words, transferring the credits allocated for purchasing chemical fertilizers to the guaranteed purchase of agricultural products will be an effective step in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and their impact, as well as maintaining the country's food security.
Research Article
Alireza Sani Heidary; Ehram Safari
Abstract
Introduction
In the continuity of human life, agriculture as a strategic activity plays a key role in providing food. In addition, the agricultural sector plays an important role in economic development, social welfare and environmental sustainability of all countries. However, this sector is facing ...
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Introduction
In the continuity of human life, agriculture as a strategic activity plays a key role in providing food. In addition, the agricultural sector plays an important role in economic development, social welfare and environmental sustainability of all countries. However, this sector is facing many challenges in recent years. Some of its most important challenges include the increasing growth of the world's population, a 40% reduction in water and soil resources, the destruction of a quarter of agricultural land, climate change, a lack of specialized labor, poor access to financial resources, strict laws, and a decrease in the number of farmers due to a decrease in motivation. Therefore, in order to meet the growing demand for food and overcome its challenges, the agricultural sector is forced to look for new solutions such as adopting digital transformation enhanced by artificial intelligence technology. The use of artificial intelligence technology has recently become evident in the agricultural sector. Solutions based on it help farmers to produce more with less resources; Secondly, to produce quality and healthy products and finally to market their products in a shorter time. Therefore, considering the importance of using artificial intelligence technology in the comprehensive improvement of the agricultural sector, this research seeks to answer the question, what predictors play an imporetant role in the behavioral intention and behavior of using artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural companies?
Materials and Methods
The main objective of this research is to determine the key predictors of behavioral intention and behavior of using artificial intelligence technology in agricultural companies through the combination of the developed UTAUT2 model and TOE factors. The statistical population of this research is the total employees of nine cultivation and industry of Razavi Agricultural Company, which are about 465 people. Data were collected by completing multidimensional questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews from households in 2023. In total, 250 questionnaires were completed. Data of 39 respondents were excluded due to missing values. The questionnaire is designed based on the seven-point Likert scale (strongly disagree = 1, strongly agree = 7). The questionnaire used in this research includes 14 constructs in the form of 60 items. Excel 2019 software was used to analyze the raw data of the questionnaire and SmartPLS software was used to test the research hypotheses. In order to guarantee the stability of the data, a complete bootstrap method with 5000 sub-samples was performed.
Results and Discussion
The results revealed that the values of Cronbach's alpha and CR for all constructs were higher than 0.7, which shows acceptable internal consistency of the model and adequate reliability of the research constructs. AVE scores and factor loading values for all constructs are above 0.5, which indicates the correct definition of constructs and high convergence between constructs and its items. The values of rho_A as an important reliability measure for PLS-SEM for all constructs are greater than the acceptable value of 0.7. The results of the Fornell-Larcker criteria and the Heterotrait-Monotrait ratio (HTMT) indicate that the model is confirmed in terms of the constructs' discriminative validity. In addition, the research model was able to explain 89.4 and 51.7 percent of the variance of the variables of behavioral intention and the behavior of people to use artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural sector. According to the results, all research hypotheses are confirmed and the behavioral intention to adopt artificial intelligence technology is positively and significantly influenced by expected performance, social effects, hope for effort, facilitating conditions, pleasure-seeking motivation, price-value, habit, trust in technology, technological aspects, organizational aspects, and environmental aspects. However, the fear of technology variable has a negative and significant impact on people's behavioral intention.
Conclusion
This study highlights the determining role of expected performance constructs, social influences, fear of technology, and organizational and environmental aspects compared to other constructs in predicting people's behavioral intention to adopt artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural sector and provides important information for different stakeholders. According to the results, it is suggested that the government should invest in the development of the necessary infrastructure for this technology and provide a platform for its development by establishing efficient laws and paying low-interest facilities. In addition, Designers should create user-friendly tools tailored to the agricultural conditions of the country.
Research Article-en
فرنوش وجدی حکم آباد; Hamed Rafiee; Amir Hossein Chizari; saeed yazdani; Safdar Hosseini
Abstract
IntroductionToday, maintaining and strengthening customer loyalty in line with a company's products or services is generally the main and central point of marketing activities. Ethical marketing is one of the things that can affect the improvement of customer loyalty to the brand/product. Ethical marketing ...
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IntroductionToday, maintaining and strengthening customer loyalty in line with a company's products or services is generally the main and central point of marketing activities. Ethical marketing is one of the things that can affect the improvement of customer loyalty to the brand/product. Ethical marketing is a field of applied ethics that deals with ethical principles hidden in marketing behavior, promotion and regulation. Ethical consumerism has become important in the last two decades due to these social and environmental issues.Materials and MethodsA CLV-based segmentation model allows a company to identify the most profitable group of customers, understand the common characteristics of those customers, and focus more on them. One of the approaches of the CLV model is the RFM analysis model, which is one of the most powerful customer lifetime value models for customer loyalty. By using customer loyalty, it groups customers and shows their level of loyalty. In order to make RFM model more practical and improve, weights are used for model variables and these weights are determined by AHP method and Expert Choice software. Considering that grouping based on products is one of the objectives of the present study, the model used in this study to calculate the lifetime value of the customer is the Group WRFM model. To achieve the goal, 710 questionnaires were completed in Tehran and the GWRFM method was used by extracting the information needed to calculate the customer's life cycle. For this purpose, first the products were grouped and then the customer's transactions were considered separately in relation to each group of products, and GWRFM values were calculated for each group of products purchased. Finally, to measure the impact of each of the ethical components on the loyalty variable, which is a multi-level variable, the multiple logit method can be used.Result and DiscussionAccording to the results of completing 710 questionnaires from the consumers of dairy products in Tehran, after standardizing the results related to the parameters of the RFM model and based on the value of the statistician, the customers were divided into 5 clusters. Using the AHP method and the opinions of experts in this field, the weights of the parameters were calculated, and the calculations indicate that the amount of money paid for each purchase is more important than other parameters. Customer lifetime value was calculated with customer information and weights calculated from the WRFM model, and the clusters were ranked based on the calculated CLV score. The highest frequency percentage belongs to clusters with low customer life cycle value for milk product, very low customer life cycle value for yogurt product and medium customer life cycle value for cheese product.In the next step, multiple logit was used to measure the impact of ethical components on CLV value and customer rating. The results for each of the components are described below. In order to investigate the component of brand adherence to the rules of its field of activity, this component was not significant for all the studied products (milk, cheese, yogurt and ayran) in all clusters, but according to the results, it is significant in the clusters with lifetime value. Customers have a positive and significant effect and increase the probability of being placed in these clusters compared to the base cluster, and vice versa, they have a negative and significant effect in clusters with low lifetime value, and according to the RRR statistic, the probability ratio of being placed in these clusters reduces By examining the component of respect for ethical norms by the brand, this component was not significant for all products in all clusters, but unlike the previous component, it had a positive and significant effect in clusters with low customer lifetime value and increased the probability for this cluster. is On the other hand, for clusters with high customer lifetime value, it has a negative effect and reduces the probability of being placed in this cluster compared to the base group. People who are in the lower categories of customer lifetime value give importance to this component, and this importance may after some time cause them to be placed in the higher category of customer lifetime value. By discussing and examining the social responsibility brand component, this component, like the rule compliance component, has a positive and significant effect in the valuable clusters of the customer's life cycle and increases the probability of being placed in these clusters compared to the base cluster and vice versa. In clusters with low lifetime value, they have a negative and significant effect, and according to the RRR statistic, it reduces the probability of being placed in these clusters.ConclusionFor ayran product, in the order of severity of impact, compliance with the rules of the field of activity and acceptance of collective responsibility, causes placement in a cluster with higher customer lifetime value, but the importance of respecting ethical norms causes placement in clusters with lower value. Regarding the clustering of cheese product customers, this influence is related to the acceptance of social responsibility, respect for norms and adherence to the rules of the field of activity. The intensity of respect for moral norms leads to placement in lower clusters. For our yogurt product, the intensity of influence is related to compliance with the rules of the field of activity, respect for ethical norms and acceptance of collective responsibility, and like other products, the component of respect for ethical norms causes it to be placed in a cluster with a lower customer lifetime value. Finally, by examining the components for the milk product, the effect of the ethical components is not the same as for other dairy products, and the importance of complying with the rules of the field of activity has caused it to be placed in clusters with lower value, and acceptance of social responsibility has caused it to be placed in clusters with higher lifetime value. Dairy industry activists can move them to higher clusters and include them among their loyal customers by assuring customers of adhering to the rules of the industry and also accepting social responsibility. If positive measures are taken in the field of respect for ethical norms, it will affect a significant part of the consumers of cheese, yogurt and ayran products, and cause them to react positively to the industry and these products, and because of that move towards being among valuable customers. This is the industry. Because most of the customers of these products are in clusters with lower lifetime value.According to the results, it can be said that customers who are considered as loyal customers for dairy products and have a high customer lifetime value, attach importance to accepting social responsibility and adhering to the rules of the dairy products field as ethical components. In today's competitive world, factors affecting the decisions of consumers should be addressed in order to turn consumers into regular customers for their products and brands. One of the things that should be addressed is the ethical components, because in recent years, this category has strongly influenced people's purchasing and consumption decisions, and as a result, this issue should be addressed and necessary measures should be taken in this field.
Research Article-en
Sohrab Sadafi Abkenar; Amir Hossein Chizari; Hamed Rafiee; habibollah salami
Abstract
IntroductionThe Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) aims to become a regional reference for pricing essential commodities and raw materials, providing a primary option for producers seeking financing and risk management. The core function of the exchange is to hedge against price volatility. Financial market ...
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IntroductionThe Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) aims to become a regional reference for pricing essential commodities and raw materials, providing a primary option for producers seeking financing and risk management. The core function of the exchange is to hedge against price volatility. Financial market traders engage in hedging for risk management or speculation, which can introduce risks to exchange activities. If an investor fails to fulfill their obligations under certain conditions, the exchange assumes those obligations. Exchanges not only provide a platform for risk management but also implement various policies and methods to control risks arising from market participants' activities. Essentially, market participants seek to protect their interests against adverse future price changes. Hedging allows a production unit to control the costs of raw materials needed for production, enabling better product pricing management. The need for hedging arises when a producer has no control over the prices of raw materials or finished products. The ability to decide on the level of risk to accept or transfer through commodity exchanges is known as hedging capability.Hedging operations differ from speculation, where the primary goal is to profit from risk management. In the Iran Commodity Exchange, hedging operations by agricultural product traders through a designed trading portfolio have not been widely promoted or considered. Hedging is an investment strategy aimed at reducing the risk of adverse price changes in an asset, typically involving taking a compensatory or opposite position relative to the guaranteed position. Conventional hedging techniques include taking a compensatory position in derivative contracts related to the current position. Another form of hedging can occur through diversification. Hedging is also an automatic insurance policy, where a risk-reward trade-off is achieved by reducing potential risk at the cost of potential benefits. In other words, hedging is costly, and a complete hedge eliminates all risks in a position or investment portfolio.Generally, domestic studies indicate that price volatility of agricultural commodities in the Iran Commodity Exchange is higher than in the free market and the Chicago Commodity Exchange. Most domestic studies have used weekly and monthly time series and have often ignored the seasonal behavior of agricultural products in unit root tests. The time series models used in domestic studies include ARIMA, VAR, VECM, and ARCH/GARCH models. It is noteworthy that none of the domestic studies have attempted to design a comprehensive model for constructing an optimal agricultural product investment portfolio.Foreign studies use more advanced methods and claim these methods are superior. Some foreign researchers suggest including agricultural products along with other products in the investment portfolio. According to foreign researchers, equation systems are superior for determining investment portfolios due to the calculation of moving covariances over single equations, although they are more complex in practice. Therefore, single equations are still prevalent.This paper examines the hedging of hazelnut pistachios with two futures and deposit investment contracts using a daily model from October 19, 2018, to January 18, 2022. Pistachios are one of the two main agricultural products traded on the Iran Commodity Exchange, but the trading value of this product has decreased from approximately 865 billion rials to about 19 billion rials in recent years. This study aims to examine the risk changes of this product and answer how the optimal portfolio selection between the two contracts has changed over the study period.Materials and MethodsThis work outlines methods and strategies for determining an optimal portfolio to hedge the risk of hazelnut pistachios in the Iranian Commodity Exchange. It primarily uses Markowitz's Portfolio Theory, which balances risk and return. The goal is to minimize risk for a given level of expected return or maximize return for a given level of risk.The hedging ratio is calculated as the ratio of futures contracts to cash positions, using methods like Minimum Variance (MV) and Mean-Variance. GARCH models, including bivariate GARCH and BEKK-GARCH, are employed to model and analyze the volatility and dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The HEGY method tests for seasonal unit roots in time series data, crucial for accurate modeling. Multivariate GARCH models capture the interaction between volatilities of different assets, essential for calculating the optimal hedge ratio. Threshold GARCH (TARCH) models account for the asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks on volatility, important for financial markets where negative returns often have a larger impact on volatility than positive returns.The study aims to minimize price risk by using these advanced econometric models to find the optimal combination of futures and spot positions in a commodity portfolio.Results and DiscussionThe seasonal unit root test for daily data of hazelnut pistachio contracts using the HEGY method examines the presence of unit roots at seasonal and non-seasonal frequencies. The results indicate significant seasonal and non-seasonal fluctuations, with stronger seasonal effects. Regression analysis reveals significant relationships between the returns of commodity deposit contracts and futures contracts, highlighting the impacts of past returns and shocks on current returns. The optimal ratio of hazelnut pistachio deposit contracts in combination with futures contracts varies across different days and seasons, reflecting market demand and investor preferences.ConclusionBased on the results, several policy recommendations for the hazelnut pistachio market can be made:1. Strengthen and Manage Seasonal Fluctuations: Policymakers and market participants should analyze seasonal fluctuations more closely and plan to counteract unusual seasonal fluctuations. This could include introducing financial derivatives like options or futures contracts to help manage volatility risks.2. Support Risk Hedging Tools: Developing and promoting risk hedging tools, such as futures contracts and other derivatives, can help investors better manage risks from volatility, especially during periods of high market volatility.3. Consider Seasonal and Daily Patterns in Portfolio Composition: Policymakers and investors should adjust their investment portfolios based on a detailed analysis of seasonal and daily changes to reduce risk and increase returns.4. Monitor and Control Volatility During Critical Periods: Given higher demand and volatility in certain months like February and December, it is recommended to closely monitor the market during these periods to prevent abnormal fluctuations. Using price control tools or trading restrictions can help stabilize the market.5. Develop Supportive Policies in Low-Volatility Months: In months with lower volatility (like July and August), supportive policies such as providing facilities or financial incentives can help maintain market activity and prevent a drop in demand, maintaining stability and reducing risk during low-volatility periods.These recommendations can help improve the performance of the hazelnut pistachio market and increase efficiency in investment decision-making.
Research Article
zahra zareidastgerdi; khalil kalantari; ali asadi
Abstract
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Introduction
The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role ...
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Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Introduction
The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role in promoting national development And rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector is one of the main concerns of the relevant institutional activists. On the one hand, the complexity of human changes and variables and the unexpectedness of environmental factors and the global economy affecting agricultural activities on the one hand and the strategic importance of food security and combating poverty on the other hand, have made the sustainable development of agriculture face deep and widespread challenges. Therefore, it is necessary that the strategies developed to deal with these issues are based on comprehensive and optimal analyzes that examine the main dimensions of the agriculture and food sector in an integrated manner. Considering the ever-increasing changes and transformations, relying on traditional planning methods is no longer the answer, and the heavy shadow of uncertainties and the emergence of discontinuous and surprising events changes the situation in such a way that planning seems to be a difficult matter. The lack of ability to predict the future as well as the complications caused by the changes have caused the emerging knowledge of foresight to enter the activities of planning and predicting developments.
Materials and Methods
In terms of its nature, the present research was an applied research, and in terms of the method, it was a descriptive-survey type. The statistical population of this research was: 1- Managers and entrepreneurs of the agricultural sector in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province; 2- Academic researchers and professors active in the agricultural sector in the catchment area of Zayandeh River in Isfahan province; 3- Policymakers and managers active in the process of policymaking and planning of agricultural development in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province which were selected as snowball sampling. In order to collect data, in addition to using library resources, researcher-made questionnaires and interviews were used. For the scenario planning section of sustainable agricultural development, a matrix with dimensions of 8x8 was used and provided to the experts of the agricultural sector using the results of interviews with experts and Delphi questionnaire.
Results and Discussion
According to the effect of one factor on other related factors, 5 plausible scenarios were identified by considering possible situations resulting from key factors and their commonalities or differences in the categories of favorable, static and critical scenarios. Scenario number 5 is a favorable scenario. In this scenario, all states of agents are favorable. In total, these scenarios have 8 favorable situations. Scenario number 4 is a static scenario. In this scenario, there are 5 static states, 3 unfavorable states. Scenarios number 1 to 3 are critical scenarios. From the total of 24 situations in these scenarios; 17 critical situations 7 situations have a static situation and maintain the status quo. Among the 5 believable scenarios and software outputs and according to their total impact score, which are between 85 and 109; 2 scenarios are the most likely scenarios. These scenarios have a total effect score of 87 to 109, of which 1 is favorable and 1 is critical.
Conclusion
Since sustainable production is the most important task in the field of agriculture, therefore, in sustainable production, the agricultural products needed by the society should be produced to the extent that the relative advantage of each province allows. And the biggest obstacle in this path is the water problem. Considering that agriculture is exposed to many problems such as climate change, agricultural products market, political decisions, It is necessary to formulate a strategic plan in this field so that some of these variables remain constant and based on other variables, production can be continued better. Therefore, farming in controlled environments such as greenhouses is one of the ways to control the factors involved in agriculture, which can control water consumption and other factors and increase the amount of production.
Keywords: foresight, scenario planning, agricultural development, Zayandeh Rood watershed
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
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