Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development

Abstract Abstract
More than %90 of natural silk in world is produced by means of mulberry silkworm (Bombyx mori L.). Therefore, it is important that we recognize and collect mulberry varieties which have high quantity and quality leaf performance. For this purpose, an experiment was conducted with five mulberry varieties (Kenmochi, Kairyonase, Ichinose, Shinichinose and Local varieties) during two seasons(spring and late autumn) in Iranian silkworm research center. After recording, obtained biological and economical characters, data (such as larval duration, larval nutrition duration, larval mortality, number of cocoon, best cocoon weight, best cocoon shell weight, shell cocoon percentage, etc.) were analyzed using a complete randomized design (CRD) model with factorial arrangement including ten treatments with three replications by means of IRRISTAT statistical software. The ANOVA results showed that type of mulberry varieties and rearing seasons have significant effects on silkworm yield (P

Abstract The present study aimed at understanding interactions and linkages between the sugar sector with other economic sectors, and the influence of sugar import reduction on the economic value added. To achieve the purpose, the Input-Output table of Iran for the year 2006, Leontief inverse matrix and hypothetical extraction method were used. Based on the results, sugar industry has the most forward linkages with “Manufacture of food products and beverages,…”, “husbandry, aviculture,…”, “cultivation, horticulture”, “bakery products” and “restaurants”. This sector has also strong backward linkages with “cultivation, horticulture”, “chemicals and chemical products”, “other services”, “transport and telecommunication” and “financial services, insurance and bank”. Furthermore, either one unit increase in the final demand of sugar or one unit decrease in the sugar import increases the output of whole economic, agricultural and fishing, industry and mining, and services sectors by 2.3060, 0.6019, 1.4331, and 0.2710 unit, respectively. The increasing coefficients of the value added for the above sectors are 0.4308, 0.3700, and 0.1992 unit, respectively.

Abstract Introduction: Policies of the Fifth Five-year Socio Economic Development Plan on Iran emphasize on improving factors such as air quality and food security, reduction of the risks and infections that threatens health as well as to change dietary patterns by improving food composition and safety. To this end, the government required to support measures to increase production of animal protein obtained from livestock and poultry. The Iranian targeted subsidy plan started in 2010 which increased energy prices significantly. The increase in energy price after start of targeted subsidies included gasoline (3.6-6.2 times), Kerosene (5.4 times), gas oil (8.1-18.9) and fuel oil (18.8). In terms of supply of animal protein, meat has an important role in nutrition and a major share in family food expenditure so that the willingness to consume it has been obvious in the country's consumer culture. On the other hand, according to international standards, every individual needs 70 grams of protein a day (for average body weight of 70 kg). About one-quarter of this amount (about 25 g) should be animal protein. With commence the second phase of a targeted subsidy plan, it is important to get familiar with the effects of this policy on the livestock and poultry industry. A change in livestock prices due to increased production and transport costs have increased the consumer price and have led to changes in the intake of animal protein and calories. With introduction of this plan and recognition of its need in the country, there has been a need to investigate the effects of increasing energy prices on the livestock and poultry industries and to quantify the effects of these policies. This study is trying to investigate the effects of the increase in energy prices for beef, sheep and poultry meat prices, including on a farm and retail prices under various scenarios, the amount of demand and supply and ultimately the effects on food security in Iran. Materials and Methods: Equilibrium displacement models (EDMs) have used in applied economics. EDM allows the researchers to focus on result of various supply and demand shifter. In this study,to decide the effects of elimination of energy subsidy policy on meat producers and consumers. The model comprises horizontally linked beef, sheep, and poultry demands at the retail level as well as vertical linkages between the farm and retail sectors. Results and Discussion: Scenarios for energy price rise are created following three steps. First, a 38 % increase created in prices of energy carriers. Then change in balance, an increase of 50 % considered as the second stage. Up to this point we have about 88 % rise in energy prices, which must raise by another 300 % to reach the global prices which created in the third scenario. Alongside policies for elimination of energy subsidies, there has been a policy of cash subsidies in the country. In this study, to calculate the effect of cash subsidy, it was necessary to calculate the increase in family expenditures in exchange for a certain percentage of increase in the meat price. Therefore, with increase of average meat price, the average family expenditures for meat were also calculated. This average is the value which will pay to families in cash. Like assumptions used in the demand model, if all income rise spent on food, the percentage of increase in expenditure can be calculated. Using this percentage and income elasticity elements, the effect of cash subsidies on increasing meat expenditure can be calculated. Though accepting the premise that all families spend their income rise to buy meat is difficult, it helps us take a general attitude about paying cash that increases demand and shocks the retail demand. Therefore, an increase of 2 and 5 % considered for the average family expenditure. A 2 percent increase in the family expenditure increased the demand for poultry, sheep, beef by about 0.63, 1.13 and 0.92 percent and a 5 percent increase in the family expenditure increased the demand, by 1.57, 2.82 and 2.29respectively. Conclusion: The results show that if the increased demand is not proportional to the increase in production, it does not have a positive impact on families' food intake. The increases in prices of energy carriers have different effects on meat production. Increased prices of energy carriers encouraged sheep production, because the increase of energy price does not induce a significant effect on the industry which uses pastures as a main feeding resource. Moreover, increased poultry and beef and sheep prices in some scenarios led to substitution with sheep leading to changes in animal protein intake. Because the meat market is competitive, increased demand arising from cash subsidies will not lead to an increase in animal protein intake. To this end, production should increase, so that the price should be reduced and the family protein and calorie intake get close to international standards. In other words, the supply shock effect should neutral and the increase in retail demand cannot help the consumer. It is recommended that the amount of money being paid to families to increase retail demand, be paid to the manufacturing sector to modernize production industry, for example heating devices that help to save energy. Moreover, to counter the negative effects of the increase in the prices of energy carriers, poultry production system that consumes a large share of energy should be modified to increase productivity. Investigating ways to increase productivity and find its effect on the transfer of demand function in an Iranian meat market requires separate study.

Abstract Introduction: Home Economics activities provide a useful framework to reduce inconsistencies of livelihood in development geography. The term 'livelihood' describes the means – 'capabilities, assets (stores, resources, claims and access) and activities – required for living'. Rural women capabilities, assets and activities and the major aspects of family living are the most important means of providing opportunities for rural households to match with their ever changing communities. These assets and activities are known as the means of making a living or surviving and denote the abilities to maintain or build long-term well-being. Rural women as the half of human population in rural areas are the guardians of holding diversified portfolios for rural households and equipping them in the social change process. They play significant role in social and cultural realms along with economic roles in rural areas. Women economic roles indoor their house and applying scientific principles to domestic situations are called home science, domestic economic and later home economics. Home economical activities identify rural women' livelihood aspirations and the barriers that make livelihood creation difficult within the rural context. Home economic activities include all the products and services which produce a community that is healthier, wiser, freer, motivated, challenged and empowered. But the main question here is that what are the home economic competencies of rural women? Do the women in regions with different levels of development experience different home economics competencies? And which factors determine these competencies among rural women? This research aims to investigate the determinants of home economics competencies among rural women in Darian township, Shiraz county, Iran. Materials and Methods: The study depends on primary data collected from rural women in rural regions of Darian township, Shiraz county, Iran. In this study, a survey was conducted using structural questionnaire. Questionnaire was designed to cover four basic household-based measures of home economics; life competencies and skills; life priorities; family support and home economics competencies. Demographic characteristics of respondents were also questioned. Face validity of questionnaires was confirmed by a panel of experts. The calculated Cronbach’s alpha for the different measures of the instrument were 0.69 to 0.94. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 22) and Super Decision software were used to treat and analyze the obtained data. Multi-stage random cluster sampling technique was used to select 200 rural women from developed and semi developed villages of Darian township. Results and Discussion: Results revealed that, rural women in developed and semi developed rural areas weren’t significantly different regarding their life priorities (child development, family life, etc.). This may imply that rural women living in developed villages tend to experience similar competencies comaring to their counterparts in semi-developed villages. The results showed that while rural women in developed and semi developed villages were significantly different with respect to their family life competencies and skills, home management competencies and home employment activities; there was no significant difference in the mean scores of the other competencies achieved by women living in developed regions. It may be interpreted that most of the women in villages with different levels of development had similar home economics competencies (housing and home furnishing, foods and nutrition, clothing and textile, and child development competencies). However, the results shed light on the impact of development on family life skills, managerial skills and the necessity of earning money in home activities. The other important difference between the study areas was the level of family support. Results revealed that rural women in developed villages experience significantly more family supports in comparison to their counterparts in semi developed regions. The perception of support of family members (spouse, child and other household members) provided a facilitative environment to promote home economics competencies. Hierarchical regression results also indicated that life skills, perceptions of family supports, craft weaving experience and the level of rural development could predict 70 percent of variation in home economics competencies among rural women. Conclusion: The researchers would like to propose possible suggestions to provide applied opportunities for women in semi developed regions. As indicated by the results, family members couldn’t provide necessary support for women to play their economical roles in their homes. Cultural support would be important to provide the supporting context for women in semi and under developed regions.

Abstract Introduction: The use of new financial instruments, and specifically option contracts, as a tool for risk management and create profitability, can help to boom exchanges and reduce the problems of the agricultural sector. Given the increasing population and the growing need for animal protein, the fluctuation in prices of these products can have a significant impact on the food security of individuals. The fluctuation of the prices of production inputs, including soybean meal and corn, can lead to fluctuations in the price of meat. The Iran Mercantile Exchange can play a major role in eliminating concerns and concerns of market participants for strategic agricultural products, including soybean meal and corn, using derivatives such as futures contracts and options. The trend of development of commodity exchanges in the world suggests that the emergence and development of these markets activities in the field of economy, seeks to dispel some of the economic needs and in many cases, eliminate some of the bottlenecks and barriers in the commodity market. The trend of development of commodity exchanges in the world suggests that the emergence and development of these markets activities in the field of economy, seeks to dispel some of the economic needs and in many cases, eliminate some of the bottlenecks and barriers in the commodity market. Option contracts is one of derivatives in commodity exchange that can have effective roll in agricultural market for overcome the problems of traditional market and reduce the risk of investors in this market. According to population, growth and increasing demand for Chicken meat and eggs, soybean meal and maize prices volatility may be fluctuating prices for white meat and egg. According to this, the aim of this study is determine the price of Asian option and Sensitivity parameters. Materials and Methods: Among quantitative methods to calculate derivatives and risk sensitivity parameters of an option, binomial tree model is frequently used. Arithmetic and Geometric Asian option with fixed and floating expiration prices were calculated using the binomial tree model for soybean meal and maize. Moreover, the sensitivity of an option's price to changes (Change in the price of the underlying asset, Delta, price volatility, time until maturity and risk-free interest rate) measured by using sensitive parameters and the impact has been obtained. Required information includes historical data on the weekly prices of soybean meal and corn in the years 2007-16. Results and Discussion: The results indicate that an Asian option is cheaper than a European simple option. Increase in asset prices, increase in asset price volatility and increases risk-free interest rate, increase the price of call option. By reducing the remaining time to maturity (T), with other factors constant, the value of an option is reduced. The hedge ratio for soybean meal is equal to 0.69 and 0.81 for corn, which means that in order to reduce the income fluctuations due to changes in the price of soybean and corn, 69 and 81 percent of the products must be sold in future and option markets. Two methods of Monte Carlo simulation and binomial tree model were used to determine the price of Asian option whit fixed strike for soybean meal and corn were 12.5 and 9.2, respectively. The results indicate that the control variate in variance reduction Monte-Carlo simulation method has a very good performance and significantly reduced the variance. Increase in asset prices, increase in asset price volatility and increases risk-free interest rate, increase the price of call option. Conclusions: In general, it can be said that to adopt a proper position in an option, is necessary to consider all the variables affecting the price. In addition, according to the sensitivity of an option to each of these variables, it should consider a good strategy to hedge these contracts. The option is a good tool for risk management, but it is also associated with risks. In volatile markets where volatility is high, the value of options is changing rapidly. Therefore, risk managers should regularly review the value of an option and thoughtful strategies to update these changes, because perhaps once-profitable option other time is extremely unprofitable.

Abstract Introduction: Broiler poultry units are among the most important units in the agricultural sector. In most developing countries, there are a lot of investments in these units. By examining the state of industry in the last few years, which has been declining, it seems that there is no efficient and optimal utilization of these units. Due to lack of proper management, appropriate financial programs and financial operations control in chicken production and main inputs price fluctuation, poultry farms do not have the necessary financial efficiency. These issues have reduced the financial efficiency of production units in the poultry industry. Consequently, the competitiveness of products of these units has decreased compared to their own competitors. In this regard, the review of financial efficiency can provide a general picture of the financial situation and performance of these units and can instruct managers and financial planners in making appropriate decisions. Accordingly, present study tries to review the financial efficiency of poultry farms in Tabriz County which has a special place in supplying protein of country and East Azerbaijan province, Iran.
Materials and Methods: In this study, financial ratios and data envelopment analysis (DEA) approaches were used to evaluate financial efficiency. DEA is a nonparametric method in operations research and economics for the estimation of production frontiers. It has been used to empirically measure productive efficiency of decision making units (or DMUs). Although DEA has a strong link to production theory in economics, the tool is also used for benchmarking in operations management, where a set of measures is selected to benchmark the performance of manufacturing and service operations. In the circumstance of benchmarking, the efficient DMUs, as defined by DEA, may not necessarily form a “production frontier”, but rather lead to a “best-practice frontier. Non-parametric approaches have the benefit of not assuming a particular functional form/shape for the frontier, however they do not provide a general link (equation) relating output and input. There are also parametric approaches which are used for the estimation of production frontiers. These require that the shape of the frontier be guessed beforehand by specifying a particular function relating output to input. One can also combine the relative strengths from each of these approaches in a hybrid method where the frontier units are first identified by DEA and then a smooth surface is fitted to these. This allows a best-practice relationship between multiple outputs and multiple inputs to be estimated. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a linear programming methodology to measure the efficiency of multiple decision-making units (DMUs) when the production process presents a structure of multiple inputs and outputs. The statistical population of this research was 45 poultry farms in Tabriz County which were surveyed by census.
Results and Discussion: By studying the economic characteristics of poultry farms in Tabriz it is revealed that the minimum and maximum capacity of studied poultry units is 6000 and 100,000 pieces, respectively; with an average capacity of 30,000 pieces. According to the results, mean production of units is 66 tons at each period and about 56 percent of units are producing below the average production. Results indicate that the average of financial efficiency of poultry farms is 63.66 percent. Also, among 45 studied units, only 5 of them have 100 percent efficiency and rest of them suffer from lack of this important factor. Therefore, there is a gap of about 36 percent to maximize financial efficiency (100 percent). Results reveal that the units which their efficiency are more that 70 percent, have higher production capacity than the other ones.
Conclusion: Economic and logical use of inputs, especially nutrient inputs and energy will have a significant impact on reducing the costs of the poultry farms and increasing their profit. Furthermore, the existence of inflationary situation in economy and the volatility of prices, including the price of inputs for poultry units, have led to a significant increase in production costs in poultry farms; as a result stabilizing the price of the main inputs can prepare a suitable base for regular planning and enhance financial efficiency of units. One of the problems with this type of studies is the lack of financial information of economic units. Given that the results of this type of studies can be applied to better planning of their economic units, therefore establishing and maintaining financial information by economic units will help to better and accurately conduct these kind of studies.

Abstract Introduction: The limitations regarding production factors as well as the increasing global markets requirements have increased the importance of products competitiveness. Despite its potentials for export including easy access to Iraq's market as well the availability of important resources of agricultural products, Kurdistan province in Iran has failed to make progress in terms of production and exporting agricultural products. Iran's Kurdistan Province has the important water and labor sources of Agricultural products. Kurdistan share of Iran's Agricultural products export is nearly 1.5 percent. Kurdistan province must recognize its comparative and competitive advantage to increase its competitiveness in international market. Comparative and competitive advantage are used to explain the tendency of countries to export or import commodities. We have used a combination of different indicators to explain the competitiveness of agricultural products in Kurdistan province.
Materials and Methods: The international competitiveness is a challenging phenomenon that has become increasingly important in today's world. Some economic theory emphasizes that change in comparative advantage should be a reflection of changes in the endowment and factors of products. Others attribute the major cause of world trade fluctuations to the technology gap, production factor and domestic costs. Institutional quality and human capital are the factors affecting world trade. Evidences that production and exports become more diversified-not more specialized- as per capita income rises has been interpreted to suggest that comparative advantage does not evolve as theory predicts and has been taken as a basis for a revival of industrial policy in developing countries.
This paper uses the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) and Constant Market Shares (CMS) indices to analyze the competitiveness of agricultural products of Kurdistan province for the years 2010-2016. CMS index is combination of three indictors: goods effects, market effects and competitiveness effects. These indexes are calculated for 32 agricultural items with relevance to the agricultural sector. The relevance basis for the classification of 32 agricultural items is the Harmonized Coding and classification system (HS).
Result and Discussion: The results show that Kurdistan province has the comparative advantage between 16 agricultural items comparing to other Iran' provinces. Among those 16 agricultural items, apple, tomato, cucumber, lettuce, other vegetables, pepper, potato, watermelon and eggplant have a high comparative advantage with the NRCA index by more than 0.0005. In the other words, the CMS index indicates the revealed competitive advantage of Kurdistan province in 8 agricultural items. These consist of eggplant, strawberry, animals-meat, garlic, carrot, onion, lettuce and oil and fruit seeds. Kurdistan province cannot convert comparative advantage of important products to competitive advantage. These important products are apple, tomato, cucumber, lettuce, potato and watermelon.
Results of market effect index emphasized that the Iraq market is appropriate for exporting products such as fresh animals, milk and dairy products, potato, piles and shallots, lettuce, carrots and turnips, cucumber, eggplant, currant, watermelon, dried fruits and grains. But Kurdistan province has not export advantage in all products. The results of this study suggested that it is beneficial for the framers in Kurdistan province to produce the products which have relative and comparative advantage and also try to move from comparative to competitive advantage.
Conclusion: This paper offers empirical consistency among five indices of competitiveness advantage to examine Kurdistan province' international advantage in agricultural items in the previous seven years. The results show that Kurdistan province has comparative advantage in many of agricultural products, but it is not successful in creating competitive advantage in target market. Kurdistan province must try to convert its comparative advantage of products to competitive advantage to develop its share of target markets.

Abstract Introduction:Water scarcity, improper management of water resources, excessive application of chemical inputs, and lack of proper cultivation patterns are present in agriculture. Lack of attention to these cases will inflict irreparable damage on the agricultural sector. Accordingly, attention to sustainable agriculture, conservation of water resources and prevention of improper use of chemical fertilizers are essential to reduce environmental pollution. In many cases, there is agreement on the river basin scale as a suitable spatial scale for analysis of water resources management. Tajan Basin with area of about 4187 km² is one of the important parts of Caspian Sea Basin. The Current status of water resources in Tajan basin due to decrease in river runoff, has doubled the focus on the basin's water resources management.
Materials and Methods: In this study, with the help of positive mathematical planning and maximum entropy approach in GAMS, policies to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and water in selecting the appropriate cultivation pattern for 2017 in the Tajan basin were reviewed. Within the model, the farmer maximizes the expected utility of their stochastic income, subject to resource and non-negativity constraints. To include both market and yields uncertainty, we calculated profit covariance matrices by using national averages for prices and yields for the 2018–2009 period. The resource constraints include land, water and fertilizer. Selected irrigated crops in the region include rice, wheat, rapeseed and corn. In the present study for simulating farmers' response, reduction scenarios including 5%, 10% and 15% of available water and fertilizer are considered. There are also two environmental sustainability index that are related to amount of the used fertilizer and water. The smaller the index is, the greater sustainability is provided in crop production.
Results and Discussion: Calibration of PMP pattern with maximum entropy approach showed that there is no difference between the value of target function, inputs and cultivation level in the current situation and calibration pattern. In all water reduction scenarios, the total cultivation area decreased. The results indicate that the agriculture in the basin is vulnerable due to changes in available water. The 15% decrease in water resources causes a significant decrease of 15/903% of the cultivation area. Cultivation area under fertilizer reduction scenarios has been lower in comparison with water scenarios, and so reduces the used fertilizer and increases soil conservation and water stock. In reduction scenarios of water and fertilizer, land reallocation is reduced due to less reduction in expected utility of farmers. In water scarcity conditions and lack of fertilizer, rice and wheat crops have higher economic benefits per hectare than other crops. The sustainability index for used fertilizer in all reduction scenarios of water and fertilizer is lower than the current pattern. Also the index of the used water in the PMP model is lower than the baseline in the region that decrease was 0.018%, 0.144% and 0.319% at three levels of 5%, 10% and 15%, respectively. In the scenario of 15% reduction of fertilizer, land allocation and economic benefits decreased by 13.83% and 0.034%, respectively. However used fertilizer and water index improved to 1.348% and 0.319%, respectively. Therefore, improving the water and fertilizer application index has a higher priority than reducing the expected utility in the region.
Conclusion: In the current cropping pattern, farmers do not pay attention to the environmental characteristics and sustainability of the region. While with the policies of reducing the quantity and price of chemical inputs and introducing different types of sustainability indicators, it is possible to develop a cultivation model. In addition to earning the necessary profit, it enables the optimal use of fertilizer and water inputs. Changing the behavior of farmers compared to the current pattern of input consumption requires strong motivation and reasons. Therefore, water quality tests and soil decomposition in the region, as well as providing appropriate formulas for optimal use of chemical fertilizers is needed. Extension services to increase people's awareness is a good solution for optimal use of inputs and increase the level of cultivation and farmers' profits.

Abstract Introduction
 Rice is a very important food product in providing national food security for the Iranian families. There are different types of rice in Iran that are selected and consumed by consumers. Consumers are looking for more desirable features for consumption. The average annual consumption of Iranian rice in Iran is about 1.33 million tons, while it is 1.30 million tons for foreign rice. One of the most important key factors in the success of producers is to pay attention to the preferences and tastes of consumers. Any change in the product and service should be made taking into account the definition of quality from the perspective of the consumer and in accordance with their preferences and tastes. Existence of foreign rice, especially Indian and Pakistani rice in the domestic market due to the close quality with similar samples of Iranian production, low price, abundant advertising and proper packaging, have changed the preferences of Iranian consumers for rice, so, high consumption of imported rice have raised concerns about creating a kind of loyalty to foreign products. The quality and variety of Iranian products can be improved by knowing the tastes and desires of consumers led to increase per capita consumption of Iranian products relative to its similar foreign types and raise farmers’ incomes. Therefore, the present study aimed to identify and prioritize the factors affecting consumer preferences in the selection of Iranian and foreign rice in Mashhad city.
Material and Methods
 Data of 384 rice consumers in Mashhad city were collected using a questionnaire design and surveys sampling. In the qualitative section, after identifying related factors, the views of experts were examined through semi-structured interviews and the seven main factors include product appearance, quality, health, price, packaging, distribution and promotion were identified in the form of 20 variables (sub-factor). In the inferential analysis section, seven main factors were ranked using structural equations and Friedman test.
Results and Discussion
 The results showed that quality, health, product appearance, packaging, distribution, price and promotion had the greatest impact on the consumers choice for Iranian and foreign rice, respectively. All rice consumers chose rice to consume, which first of all has a pleasant aroma both before and after cooking, and also does not have small pieces of rice at the time of purchase and has a suitable taste after cooking. Also, rice health is the second component that consumers pay attention to, they choose rice that is sure it is organic as well as being free of toxins and fertilizers. The grain appearance of the product include grain length, post-cooking appearance and its color at the time of purchase is located in third rank. The next rank is related to product packaging including packaging type (bulk or package), package appearance and listed information on the package. Distribution of rice products is located in fifth rank, which is divided into store location and access to the store. The final rankings were related to price and advertising such as the type of media, public relations and encouragement to buy the product. Post-cooking taste, purity, post-cooking aroma, aroma and smell at the time of purchase, post-cooking texture of rice, and choice of rice type by the citizens of Mashhad city have a negative and significant relationship, respectively. In other words, those who consume Iranian rice pay more attention to these variables in their selection than those who consume foreign rice. In choosing rice, the type of packaging and its size are not the first priorities of buyers, but it plays a significant role in the marketing. Based on our results, if Iranian and foreign rice are at the same price, consumers tend to consume Iranian rice because of the pleasant aroma and taste. TV commercials cannot affect consumer choice, because rice is a product that must be seen by the consumer when buying and the decision to buy is made after checking the rice appearance.
Conclusion
 Focusing on producing a healthy product, producing cultivars with better post-cooking appearance, eliminating government currency and removing foreign rice price bias, as well as focusing on quality instead of high cost on advertising can improve the level of rice production can enhancing consumer satisfaction as well as improving the situation of rice production and rural income and employment.

Abstract Introduction
Flood is a phenomenon that occurs almost in most regions of the world and causes significant damage to human life and ecosystem. Forests are one of the necessary things to prevent damages caused by floods, but the conditions are not enough. Therefore, it is important to use an economic tool to manage and protect the Hyrcanian forest ecosystem in order to reduce flood damage in the coming years. Currently, there are various tools in this field that must be carefully chosen and it is not possible to use one tool in all ecosystems of the world. Payment for forest ecosystem services (PES) is one of the economic tools of forest management and protection by providing direct incentives to stakeholders to improve its ecosystem functions and services. Therefore, in comparison with other market instruments of environmental protection such as environmental taxes which may cause a reduction in the production of various economic sectors and as a result reduce the income of producers and finally lose their motivation. The Payment for Forest Ecosystem Services (PES) program not only does not reduce income, but also increases income for the beneficiaries of forest ecosystem services and thus creates incentives. Payment for ecosystem services is a two-way transaction and is completely voluntary. In this transaction, there must be at least one buyer and one ecosystem service provider provided that the ecosystem service provider continues to offer that service. The logic of PES schemes is that the beneficiaries (people who benefit from ecosystem services) are asked to protect the providers of ecosystem services (such as public or private organizations) who work to protect, restore and natural ecosystem management is to pay for better management and protection of these ecosystems. This payment may take place at the local, national and global level. Studies show that among the various factors influencing the occurrence of floods, excessive exploitation of forests and changes in the use of forest lands are the main causes of floods. But few studies have been conducted on the role of PES plans to protect natural ecosystems to prevent natural hazards such as floods. Therefore, considering the importance and extraordinary value of natural forests in the region in reducing flood damage, the purpose of this study is to investigate the preferences of residents affected by recent floods in Mazandaran province in the form of payment for ecosystem services (PES) scheme and to identify the factors affecting the acceptance of PES scheme to reduce flood damage by conservation the Hyrcanian forests ecosystem using the choice modeling approach (Choice Experiment (CE) and the multinomial econometric model. The Choice Experiment is one of the methods of valuing stated preferences, which is very suitable for analyzing the importance of different features of a product or a policy.
Materials and Methods
To achieve this goal, the Choice Experiment method and multinomial logit econometric model were used. The features studied in this method include forest management, watershed management, land use management (preventing forest land use change), payment method, contract duration and payment amount (price). Also, the statistical population of the study includes the affected-floods residents in three parts of the center, east and west of Mazandaran province. Research data were obtained by field survey, random sampling and 110 choice experiment questionnaires in summer 2020. Socio-economic variables in the study include age, gender, job, education, PES awareness, expenses and income of the affected-floods residents.
Results and Conclusion
Based on the study results, the willingness to pay of households affected by floods for conserving the Hyrcanian forest ecosystem to reduce flooding through land use management is as follows: for changing the status quo, it is 36,140 Rial per month; for improvement status, it is 68,910 Rial per month. Additionally, for contract duration and payment method, the willingness to pay is 150,150 Rial per month. The study findings also indicate that affected-floods residents prefer to make cash payments in the long-term to conserve the forest ecosystem and mitigate flooding. Furthermore, when examining the impact of various socio-economic variables on the residents' willingness to pay, it was found that age, gender, education, expenses, income, and awareness of Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) have a direct positive effect on their willingness to pay. Considering these results, it is recommended that forest conservation programs in the Northern provinces place importance on the mentioned factors to encourage people's participation in forest conservation projects. This will facilitate the implementation of the PES scheme and enhance the success of forest conservation efforts.

Abstract Introduction
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic has had numerous adverse impacts on every aspect of human existence. In times of crises like epidemics throughout history, ensuring a sufficient food supply has always been a crucial concern. Given that the agricultural sector plays a vital role in the food supply chain and maintaining sustainability in this sector is essential for food security, this study aims to identify and prioritize the factors that influence the sustainability of the agricultural supply chain, specifically focusing on the wheat crop, during and after the Corona era.
 
Materials and Methods
Based on the research background, the factors that impact the sustainability of the agricultural supply chain were determined. In the agricultural sector, like previous studies on supply chain sustainability, the study focused on the three dimensions of sustainability: economic, social, and environmental. However, experts suggest that the study is more centered on these three dimensions, which are particularly significant in the agricultural industry. By utilizing the Fuzzy Delphi method, 28 sub-criteria related to these hidden sustainability variables were identified. The Fuzzy DEMATEL method was then employed to examine cause-and-effect relationships and the interaction between criteria. Finally, the Fuzzy method was used to determine the degree of importance and weight of these criteria.
 
Results and Discussion
To achieve sustainable agriculture, research centers should prioritize the necessary research in this field, as highlighted by Sharghi et al. (2010). Farmers who possess more information about sustainability have been found to have more sustainable farms, confirming a direct correlation between these two factors (Afrous & Abdollahzadeh, 2011). The outcomes of the present study align with previous research, demonstrating that the level of attention given by research organizations to required research on sustainability is the most influential criterion within the causal group of sustainable procurement with a weight of 3.34, it holds the highest importance in the ranking according to the SWARA method. Updating and sharing information in DEMATEL's method has the fourth highest impact on other factors in the cause-and-effect group. However, in the SWARA's method was found to be the second most important factor, with a weight of 0.2403. Another study confirmed that the three main limitations of sustainable wheat production are the farmers' limited knowledge, lack of approved and resistant seeds, and inadequate management systems, especially for weeds. The use of local suppliers, specifically utilizing stored seeds from farmers, can lead to the spread of diseases and an increase in weed populations (Husenov et al., 2017). The proliferation of weeds leads to the squandering of production resources and a decrease in production levels. The most impactful factor for the sustainability of the wheat supply chain, as determined by the causal group, is the requirement of collaborating with an ISO-certified supplier. This criterion holds a significant weight of 0.4915 and is essential for achieving sustainable supply and design. Recognizing the significance of this criterion is crucial to enhance production and mitigate the risk of potential diseases. However, farmers, due to the expensive cost of modified seeds, resort to utilizing seeds from their previous crop. Based on the Fuzzy DEMATEL method, water consumption management ranked fifth among the criteria that influence other criteria. However, according to the Fuzzy SWARA method, it ranked second with a weight of 0.251. With water resources being scarce in the region, it is crucial to use water efficiently and prevent wastage, as this will positively impact productdid not support the significance of stopping gray marketing of products. According to experts, this study determined that the most effective criteria for the causal group in stabilizing the agricultural supply chain of wheat products during the Covid-19 era is to stop gray marketing. This criterion received the highest degree of importance, with a weight of 0.4469, in the dimension of sustainable distribution.
Imports decreased because of the restrictions and quarantine measures, which led to a shortage of seeds for crops like wheat that relied on imports. Social distancing measures also caused a shortage of labor in agriculture, leading to a significant reduction in farming activities. By focusing on supply and sustainable design during epidemics and crises, there is an ability increased to manage the supply chain and positively impact other aspects of production sustainability.
 
Conclusion
Based on the results obtained, increasing farmers' awareness, and utilizing approved seeds can prevent resource wastage and enhance the stability of the supply chain. Additionally, reducing gray market activities can contribute to the supply chain's stability and ultimately enhance food security. Effective management of water consumption is also crucial for ensuring the sustainability of the supply chain, particularly due to the water scarcity crisis in the region. Enhancing the stability of the supply chain not only facilitates resilience during crises like Covid-19 but also promotes self-sufficiency in producing agricultural products essential for Iranian households, including wheat, which is a fundamental necessity.

Abstract Introduction risk is as an uncertainty that has effects on individual’s welfare, which is often related to the adversities and loss and is defined as the probability of adversity or loss too. Activity in the agriculture sector is different from the other sectors because the producers' incomes are affected by a lot of risks. Agricultural insurance is mentioned always as a good strategy for the risk management of the agricultural sector. In designing and rating a crop insurance contract, the modeling of yield risk is fully analogous to modeling the probability of distribution for the crop yield and significantly depends on the distribution function, thus in appropriate designing of agricultural insurance contracts, the accurate modeling of the crop yield distribution is vital. Materials and Methods There are three approaches for modeling yield distributions, parametric, non-parametric and semi-parametric methods which parametric and nonparametric approaches are more conventional. In many cases, crop yields show increasing trends over time because of technological change which deviation from this pattern (the error term) is often causes variance heterogeneity and reject the assumption that the yields are independently distributed. Thus A common approach to yield risk modeling is detrending the data and using detrended series for modeling yield risk. This approach is often called a two-step approach. The candidate parameterizations includes beta as the parametric and kernel as the nonparametric distribution. The area under the density to the left of the guaranteed yield presents the probability of loss thus the integral of the curve between zero and the insurer yield guaranteed should be calculated as the probability of loss. The Integral under the kernel density to present the probabilities of loss was numerically estimated using a trapezoid rule. Now the yield insurance is running traditionally by the Agricultural Insurance Fund and is faced with problems of mismatch in received insurance premiums and payment indemnities. Therefore, consideration to diversification of insurance products and using the accurate and conventional methods to calculate the probability of losses and premiums in order to improve the current situation is very important. This study attempts to calculate the probability of loss using the parametric and nonparametric approaches for the area yield crop insurance contract and employs historical county-level yield data for irrigated and dry wheat and barley during the years of 1975 to 2013 for Ahar and Hashtrood counties in East Azarbaijan province published by Agriculture-Jihad Organization. Results and Discussion The descriptive statistics for the detrended yields for all counties and crops indicates that the yields exhibit negative skewness in more than 63 percent of the cases. Negative skewness suggests fatter right-hand-side tails with yields close to the maximum yield observed more frequently than very low yields. We calculate the probability of loss in different coverage levels (65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85% and 90%) and the results indicate that the ranges of their variations are different. The results show that the values of probability of loss in parametric approach (beta distribution) are higher than nonparametric approach (kernel distribution). To compare the parametric and nonparametric distributions, the CDF plots of the kernel, beta and empirical distribution are evaluated and the results showed that the kernel distribution fit the sample data very well and fits the data better than beta CDF. Moreover the results show that except for some coverage levels of dry wheat, in all the cases, the values of probability of loss are higher in rain fed crops than irrigated crops. The results also show that the probability of loss in Hashtrood County is more than Ahar County, indicating that the crop yield risk in Hashtrood County is more than Ahar County, thus the probability of indemnity payments will increase and the higher premiums will be needed for this county. Conclusions In general, the results indicate that the values of the probability of loss obtained from two approaches are significantly different from each other and the nonparametric approach results are more accurate. Therefore, it is recommended that in estimating the premium rates and yield risk calculation, the characteristics of distribution functions to be considered and the appropriate approach to be selected. Due to the results that show the probability of loss in Hashtrood County is more than Ahar County, it is recommended that in determining the premiums, the smaller divisions than province to be considered to organize the homogeneous risk groups. Moreover since the availability of different coverage levels provide better choice power for producer to manage their farm risks, it is recommended that the premium rates which due to the different probability of loss in different coverage levels are different, present in the variable coverage levels to the insurers.

Abstract Introduction Given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness in the economy and the theoretical ambiguity surrounding their effects on agricultural performance, this study employs the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to empirically assess their impact. Specifically, it examines how FDI and trade openness have influenced the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Iran’s agricultural sector over the period 1970–2022.   Materials and Methods The model utilized in this research is based on the study by Sultana and Sadkin (2023) as follows: The variables employed in this research include: AFF: agricultural production growth, FDI: foreign direct investment, GDP: gross domestic product (economic growth), CPI: inflation rate, TRADE: degree of trade openness (free trade), GFC: gross fixed capital formation, and : stochastic term. The necessary data were gathered from the World Bank for the period from 1970 to 2022.   Results and Discussion In this research, the generalized Dickey-Fuller tests were employed to assess the stationarity of the time series and the presence of unit roots. The order of their aggregation was determined accordingly. The generalized Dickey-Fuller test indicates that at a significance level of 5%, all variables, except for the growth of the agricultural sector with a one-time difference, are stationary in both the cases of having an intercept without a trend and having an intercept with a trend. Based on the results of the generalized Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, the accumulated model variables are of order one and zero. Consequently, the ARDL method is applied in this research. To estimate long-run coefficients, it is essential to first verify the existence of a long-run relationship. Therefore, the F-Bound test introduced by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) is also utilized. This method confirms the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the model's variables. The results of the LM test indicate that there is no autocorrelation among the residuals in the examined model. In fact, the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation is not rejected. Additionally, the results of the heteroscedasticity test suggest that the null hypothesis of the absence of heteroscedasticity is not rejected, indicating homogeneity of variance. The following table presents the results of model estimation using the ARDL method.   Model estimation results using the ARDL method Long-run relationship Variables Coefficients standard deviation t-Student Prob. FDI 22.91 6.25 3.66 0.00 GDP 1.36 0.39 3.48 0.00 GFC 0.82 0.38 2.14 0.05 INF -0.37 0.13 -2.68 0.02 TRADE 0.16 0.15 1.04 0.32 C 67.43 11.57 5.82 0.00 Source: Research findings The error correction model is employed to assess how short-run imbalances of dependent variables are corrected towards long-run equilibrium. The results from estimating the error correction model indicate that the coefficient of the error correction term in the model is -0.20. This means that in each period, 20% of the imbalance in the agricultural sector is corrected, moving closer to its long-run equilibrium trend. To ensure the stability of the estimated regression coefficients and the accuracy of the results obtained, stability tests, including cumulative residual (CUSUM) and cumulative residual squared (CUSUMSQ), are conducted for the residuals of the short-run model. The results confirm the stability of the estimated coefficients during the studied period.   Conclusion The findings of this research indicate that foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive and significant impact on the long-term production growth of Iran's agricultural sector. However, commercial openness does not have a significant effect on the growth of production in this sector over the long run. Additionally, gross domestic product (economic growth) and gross fixed capital positively and significantly influence agricultural production growth. Conversely, the inflation rate negatively and significantly affects the production growth of the agricultural sector.   Acknowledgement Given the positive and significant impact of FDI on agricultural production in the long run, it is essential to attract appropriate and efficient foreign direct investment to enhance local employment and investment, thereby boosting production and productivity in Iran's agricultural sector. Consequently, it is recommended that policymakers refine their strategies to foster an environment conducive to attracting foreign direct investment in agriculture, aiming to draw in more effective investments to elevate agricultural productivity. In this context, the country can adjust its tax and agricultural investment policies to establish a "suitable investment environment" that encourages long-term foreign investments in the agricultural sector. Furthermore, the government should implement policies aligned with agricultural needs and initiate relevant and practical training programs for farmers to enhance agricultural skills, enabling FDI to further develop the nation's agricultural sector. Additionally, to bolster the country's economic growth within the agricultural sector, innovative methods must be adopted to attract foreign direct investment. The lack of a significant effect of trade openness on the production of Iran's agricultural sector underscores the necessity to reassess the country's free trade policy to support various segments of the agricultural sector, thereby increasing production and improving the overall performance of agriculture.

Abstract Introduction
According to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 7.2 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population growth) will increase by 150 to 170 percent by 2050. Today, one of the problems and threats facing the realization of food security in human societies is existence of an unusual amount of agricultural product waste.
Every year, about one third and approximately 1.3 billion tons of total food production consumed by humans with a monetary value of 936 billion dollars, it is lost or wasted, which means that 0.9 million hectares and 306 square kilometers of water required for the production of agricultural products are wasted every year. The presence of this amount of waste in Iran's agricultural products indicates a significant waste of resources in country, and management of the country's resources (especially water) according to Iran's climatic situation and forecasting and drawing the future. It is telling that (resources used in agricultural sector) will soon become an important challenge. Considering that in country, 93.5% of water resources are used in agriculture, other issues such as pollution of water reserves, transfer of agricultural water to other sectors and low efficiency of water consumption in agriculture, increasing demand for water, increasing periods drought, phenomenon of fine dust, human impact on natural resources, etc. affect the amount of agricultural production.
Subgroups of fruits and vegetables have the largest share in the consumption basket of households, but there are no specific statistics for recent years about share of consumption per capita of households (separated by products used) in Iran. It is important to note that the amount of waste generated by consumers varies between 1 kg per household per week and 4.5 kg per person per week, depending on consumer behavior. Given the significance of agricultural inputs, particularly water, in the production of these agricultural products and their substantial share in household consumption, this research focuses on the fruit and vegetable subgroups.
 
Materials and Methods
The case study of this research acknowledges that, in addition to consumers in Mashhad, there is heterogeneity among retail and wholesale shops, as well as the city's main market squares, each contributing to varying percentages of agricultural product waste. These differences can fluctuate based on urban areas, necessitating a model that accounts for the heterogeneity within the studied population. Therefore, the multilevel Bayesian model was selected as the most appropriate tool, as discussed in the following section on the modeling methodology.
 
Results and Discussion
Based on the results in Table (7), the gender variable, with a mean value of 0.8285 for its parameter distribution, falls within the estimated confidence interval. It is identified as one of the factors influencing the reduction of waste in fruit and vegetable products. Specifically, being a woman and having women manage household affairs (compared to men) leads to a reduction in waste. Regarding the education level of consumers, waste from fruit and vegetable products is significant only in the group with a diploma to bachelor's degree (compared to the group with education levels below a diploma). The negative sign of the average distribution of its parameter (-1.4599) indicates that this group produces more waste than those with lower education levels. The variable of household size also affects the amount of waste from fruit and vegetable products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.3151. An increase in household size is associated with a reduction in waste. Additionally, the number of people working in the family (mean parameter distribution = 0.3733) also reduces waste, likely because a higher number of working family members can lead to increased income, allowing for the purchase of higher-quality products. The relative price parameter of agricultural products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.1475, reduces the waste generated by consumers. As the relative price of agricultural products (e.g., fruits and vegetables) increases—when consumers compare the value of these products to other goods—they realize that consuming these products will result in less waste. Similarly, the parameter related to the distribution location of agricultural products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.1744, also reduces the waste generated by consumers. This suggests that the more efficiently agricultural products are distributed, the less waste is produced. Suitable places for product distribution can give better access and power of choice to consumer, and based on this, consumer can avoid bulk purchases or worry about running out of products in nearby stores; He avoids and the amount of waste formed by him decreases. Product parameter (goods or services offered to customer) for agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = -0.1902) causes an increase in the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. In other words, with increase in the supply of products (fruits and vegetables), consumers become more willing to buy and consume (like consuming a specific product during the supply season), and this causes increase in number of purchases to affect the amount of waste generated. Parameter of promoting agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.0683) reduces the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. With better introduction of product and advertisements related to the production process until its consumption; consumer understands the value of the product and tries to reduce its waste.
 
Conclusion
The research demonstrates that individual and marketing mix factors can effectively reduce waste. Beyond the importance of each link in the food supply chain, consumer-level interventions using the marketing mix (price, product, promotion, and location) can contribute to reducing agricultural product waste. Therefore, studying consumer behavior, considering individual and social characteristics and the influence of the marketing mix, represents a potentially low-cost solution for minimizing agricultural product waste.

Abstract Nowadays, agricultural R&D provides new and developed technologies to create modern agricultural producing methods. This paper investigates the relationship between TFP, domestic agricultural R&D, and foreign agricultural R&D during 1979 – 2009 by using Almon lag models. The results indicate that agricultural researches (both domestic and foreign R&D) have positive and significant impact on the agricultural TFP. According to the result, the long term coefficients for both domestic and international agricultural R&D were 0.16 and 0.19%, respectively. The Average of the internal rate of return (AIRR) was calculated up to 37 % for Iranian agricultural sector. The AIRR in Iran is low compared to the AIRR in developing countries, which is 54%. The results suggest that the government investment on the improvement in the human capital and the level of farmers’ knowledge influence the AIRR and TFP, positively.Furthermore the government should pay attention to the selection of the partner countries

Abstract Introduction: Poultry is an important commodity for household consumption. In recent years, price fluctuation for this commodity has caused an uncertain condition for consumers and poultry prices over the past two years has changed a lot. This has caused many changes and uncertainty in a purchase decision. Analysis of changes and volatility modeling can be a great help to predict the poultry prices and great facilities in creating appropriate policies in future. The prices of staples such as poultry consumption basket is highly variable because much of the protein is necessary for daily energy are supplied in this way to households. So when the price of chicken which has been changed over the past two years and has always been in the press and media attention, has been selected in this study. Fluctuations in price of chicken have caused a surge in consumer expectations and contributed in volatility of chicken price. Materials and Methods: In this study ARCH models have been used for daily price of poultry of Iran’s market and this was investigated for2012-13and2013-14.BecauseARCH models can model the impact of heterogeneous variance over time in time series data then the variance of time series, which is limited in time, has no time limit. Many time series are more complex than a linear patterns, thus, non-linear models are of particular importance in Economic Sciences and Econometrics. Accordingly, Engle presented that ARCH model can model the heterogeneous variance components of the error term. That is a disturbing element and modeling can help to examine and explore the relationship between the components can be found disturbing. Basically, these models fit the data to a cluster and periodic oscillations with high volatility and low volatility associated with the period. In this study, we used several different models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH, and TGARCH. The distribution of the error term of the model also followt-student distribution. This study shows that the heterogeneous variance exists in error term and indicated by LM-test. Results and Discussion: Results showed that stationary test of the poultry price has a unit root and is stationary with one lag difference, and thus the price of poultry was used in the study by one lag difference. Main results showed that ARCH is the best model for fluctuation prediction. Moreover, news has asymmetric effect on poultry price fluctuation and good news has a stronger effect on poultry price fluctuation than bad news and leverage effect doesnot existin poultry price. Moreover current fluctuation does not transmit to future. One of the main assumptions of time series models is constant variance in estimated coefficients. If this assumption has not been, the estimated coefficients for the correlation between the serial data would be biased and results in wrong interpretation. The results showed that ARCH effects existed in error terms of poultry price and so the ARCH family with student t distribution should be used. Normality test of error term and exam of heterogeneous variance needed and lack of attention to its cause false conclusion. Result showed that ARCH models have good predictive power and ARMA models are less efficient than ARCH models. It shows that non-linear predictions are better than linear prediction. According to the results that student distribution should be used as target distribution in estimated patterns. Conclusion: Huge need for poultry, require the creation of infrastructure to response to demands. Results showed that change in poultry price volatility over time, may intensifies at anytime. The asymmetric effect of good and bad news in poultry price leading to consumer's reaction. The good news had significant effects on the poultry market and created positive change in the poultry price, but the bad news did not result insignificant effects. In fact, because the poultry product in the household portfolio is essential, it should not fluctuate. When poultry imports decline, as well as the dependence of the poultry price to world prices declines therefore lower fluctuations of world prices are transmitted to domestic prices. Expanding poultry farms, cold storage and balance the raw materials market, would lead to less fluctuations in the poultry price industry and can be effective.

Abstract Introduction: Continuous fluctuations in the prices of agricultural commodities have a significant effect on the situation of countries, especially developing countries in the world. In the short term, the impact of price shocks on imports of agricultural commodities and balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves is considerable in developing countries and it has negative effects on social security programs in these countries. In the long- run, these fluctuation effects on specialization of resources in production and development in agricultural sector delays. If price volatility to rise out of the market principals, increases in commodity prices in special times and for special products translates to bubble pick. Friedman’s theory on efficient markets underlines that, given rational behavior and rational expectations, the price of an asset will always reflect market fundamentals. Therefore, the main question is whether the forces of demand and supply, or explosive behavior (bubbles) generate price volatility mutations. If price volatility is due to market demand and supply conditions, a series of policies, including reducing demand or increase in supply can be effective to reduce volatility. However, if price fluctuations are for reasons beyond market factors, changes in supply or demand fluctuations may be more severe and worsen the situation of the producer and the consumer. Hence, it is important, especially for policy makers to determine that whether the market factors or factors outside of market cause fluctuations in the market. Material and Methods: In the present study, by applying the generalized version of the sup augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test, bubble behavior identified. For this test, time series data from 2002 to 2013 that collected on a monthly basis, was used. Study variables include the chicken and beef prices. Since in the internal investigations, discussing for speculative bubbles in commodities in agricultural products not addressed, it is important to address this issue. These products, select from this perspective that these goods regularly have price volatility over the past years (mainly increase) and therefore, faced with mass and low production. As a result, consumers sometimes have not access to a sufficient quantity of these goods or the supply too much in some periods and vice versa. Results and Discussion: Our findings suggest that food commodities exhibited bubble behavior during mentioned years. These mutations of explosive behavior are, in general, short-lived. Assessing trends in the price of chicken show those four cycles of bubble behavior have seen for this product. In the meat market, there are important reasons and factors behind these fluctuations. Fluctuations in the price of inputs, especially after subside targeting in Iran in 2010, increasing the general level of prices and inflation, consumer cross-sectional volatility (changes in demand) and low ability to store the meat for a long time, not full replacement of fresh poultry meat to freeze and finally and the most important factor the elimination of subsidies for agricultural inputs in recent years are the important factors that affect price and production volatility in recent years in Iran meat industry. For the price of beef, just two short-term and long-term bubbles appear in the studied period. Rising meat prices due to the rising cost of inputs such as animal fodder and a variety of animal feed, animal drugs, high cost of packaging, transportation problems, related to subsidize livestock inputs, labor and the total inflation are the most important factors for price fluctuations in beef meat.It should be noted that price fluctuations in the price of chicken meat are more and more severe than the price of red meat. The reason for more fluctuations in the price of chicken meat is that per capita consumption of chicken meat is larger than red meat and the level of price for this meat is lower than red meat. Therefore, customers can buy it even when the price of chicken meat increases from its mean. The price of red meat is about 4 to 5 times of chicken meat and therefore volatility in the price of red meat can considerably affect on real income and consumption by consumers. Conclusion: Considering the results and given the importance and influence of external factors on the price volatility of food commodities, we propose the strategies for reducing price volatility mutations and thus reduce the bubble behavior, such that it can be mentioned to apply the appropriate policy of import and export to control the market fluctuations and prices. It is recommended that the daily and monthly prices of major agricultural products such as meat, scrutinized and assessed carefully in order to determine the real parts of price fluctuations for better policy considerations.

Abstract Introduction: Stock shortage is one of the development impasses in developing countries and trough it the agriculture sector has faced with the most limitation. The share of Iran’s agricultural sector from total investments after the Islamic revolution (1979) has been just 5.5 percent. This fact causes low efficiency in Iran’s agriculture sector. For instance per each 1 cubic meter of water in Iran’s agriculture sector, less that 1 kilogram dry food produced and each Iranian farmer achieves less annual income and has less mechanization in comparison with similar countries in Iran’s 1404 perspective document. Therefore, it is clear that increasing investment in agriculture sector, optimize the budget allocation for this sector is mandatory however has not been adequately and scientifically revised until now. Thus, in this research optimum budget allocation of Iran- Khorasan Razavi province agriculture sector was modeled. Materials and Methods: In order to model the optimum budget allocation of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector at first optimum budget allocation between agriculture programs was modeled with compounding three indexes: 1. Analyzing the priorities of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector experts with the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), 2. The average share of agriculture sector programs from 4th country’s development program for Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector, and 3.The average share of agriculture sector programs from 5th country’s development program for Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector. Then, using Delphi technique potential indexes of each program was determined. After that, determined potential indexes were weighted using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and finally, using numerical taxonomy model to optimize allocation of the program’s budget between cities based on two scenarios. Required data, also was gathered from the budget and planning office of Khorasan Razavi’s Jahad Keshavarzi organization during 2006-2015. They were collected through distributed binary comparison questionnaires related to AHP model between Khorasan Razavi’s agricultural experts in 2015 and distributed questionnaires related to Delphi technique between Khorasan Razavi’s agricultural experts in 2015. Indeed, Super decision and Taxonomy software were applied to analyze the gathered data. Results and Discussion: Results of budget allocation of Khorasan Razavi province’s agriculture sector using three mentioned indexes showed that between 8 programs, P1 and P6 have the most and least share, respectively. The results of the Delphi technique for determining potential indexes of between cities budget allocation of agriculture sector programs indicated that totally there are 62 indexes. Findings of between cities budget allocation of agriculture sector programs showed that for budget allocation of P1 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Kalat and Davarzan cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P2 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Bardaskan and Kalat cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P3 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Mashhad and Joghatai cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P4 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Jovein and Torghabe Shandiz cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P5 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Chenaran and Neishabour cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P6 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Mashhad and Khoushab cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. For budget allocation of P7 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Neishabour and Saleh Abad cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. Finally, for budget allocation of P8 based on 1 and 2 scenarios, Neishabour and Khoushab cities have the most and least share, respectively and vice versa. Conclusion: The study concludes that the agriculture sector budget of Khorasan Razavi Province’s has not been allocated optimally. Therefore, paying attention to this fact that agriculture sector budget allocation which carried out previously between various programs, have been provided different instructions for opposite ideas always caused to challenge between beneficiary groups. This study provided a scientific and comprehensive model for budget allocation of agriculture sector between programs and cities using agriculture experts, and can be suggested to governors and Jahad Keshavarzi organizations to apply the results.

Abstract Introduction: Irregular consumption of groundwater resources in the northern Mahyar plain that is located in Zayande Rood basin river has considerably decreased the water’s level of aquifer of this plain and groundwater resources as important resources of water supply for agriculture of this region have been faced with a negative balance. On this basis, Aquifer management in terms of preserving and sustainability of water resources is very important. The regional economic dependence on irrigated agriculture and the decline of the Mahyar Aquifer due to agricultural pumping have been much of the basis for the relatively recent governmental interest in developing policy alternatives for conserving water in the aquifer. Especially, for the area's economy is based on agricultural production. Although governments supportive payments to agricultural activities are fulfilled for the purpose of increasing of social benefits, it will cause some economic and environmental externalities. The objectives of this study were to analyze and evaluate the outcomes of water price increment as specified water conservation policy alternatives on groundwater consumption and cropping patterns on the aquifer of northern Mahyar plain in Isfahan province, using non-linear optimization models. Materials and Methods: The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of irrigation water pricing scenarios on groundwater balance and the modification in farmers' cropping patterns in the northern Mahyar plain. The objective function in this study is to maximize net present value to land, management, groundwater, and irrigation systems over a twenty years planning horizon. For these purposes, A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model is considered in a dynamic framework and was calibrated to land use data for a base period of 2004-2005. The effects of the eight pricing scenarios of water in the range of zero to 1800 (IRR) on parameters over a period of twenty years were simulated by the model. PMP approach produces a constrained non-linear optimization model that mimics the land and water allocation decision facing producers each year The choice variables in the model are the acreages planted to each of the major crops and the water use by crop. This method is a useful approach in the determination of planning strategies and policies for groundwater systems. This method was intended to collect data and survey-based study of 250 questionnaires, documents, and use of views and experiences of experts. Results and Discussion: The results derived from the model employed in this work showed that water pricing alone can potentially reduce considerably the consumption of aquifer groundwater, and adjust the trend of overexploitation of groundwater by irrigated agriculture. This effect is generated mainly as a result of water pricing providing incentives to the modification of farmers' cropping patterns through the substitution of crops with higher water requirements by others which use less water. Therefore, another modification in farmers' cropping patterns is substitution of crops with traditional irrigation by modern irrigation system. In fact, it has been analyzed that under certain structural and economic conditions, the effect of pricing policies can generate significant levels of water savings. The chief generalization is that the high water price scenarios significantly decreased the rate of decline in saturated thickness. Regardless of the price scheme, the saturated thickness will increase so long as the rate of recharge exceeds the irrigation rate. Therefore, it stands to reason that we should observe an increase in the saturated thickness than a base price scenario. A limitation of this proposed model regards the assumption of constant technology for both irrigation systems and pumping engines, which is significant in affecting the results. Conclusions: Water pricing policies can affect water saving, at least in some situations, depending on water tariff rates, external conditions, and type of consumer behavior. Given the initial volume of groundwater in the northern Mahyar plain, it is imaginable that critical conditions will be reached in the near future by continuing the base scenario. A non-linear dynamic programming model in the framework of PMP techniques has been built to analyze the effects of water pricing scenarios on groundwater conservation of northern Mahyar plain. The Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) method proved to be very effective. As seen in the data section there was not a plethora of information (data) on this subject. Therefore, it was important that the method chosen for this study could use a minimal amount of data while still maintaining accuracy. The PMP method was able to take the minimal data, calibrate to it, and then effectively reproduce the observed results. Additionally, the production function was able to be incorporated into this process seamlessly while maintaining accuracy. The result shows that under the high price scenarios, water application per acre decreased significantly during the early years of the simulated period. This suggests that high water prices have a significant effect on the rate of increment of the northern Mahyar aquifer stability. This is one of the first times that the PMP method has been incorporated into an applied groundwater management problem such as this, while also incorporating hydrological and agronomic information over time.

Abstract Introduction: In recent decades, due to increase in population and demand for agricultural products, creating new forms of energy in the agricultural sector and improper use of inputs due to lack of proper management, this economic sector has become an energy consuming sector. So far, various studies have been conducted to measure energy efficiency and cost in the agricultural sector. In most studies conducted in Iran, energy efficiency for the production of various crops has been calculated based on the final product besides material wastage has not been considered in terms of energy and cost. Material Flow Cost Accounting (MFCA) is an environmental management tool that can help farmers completely understand the financial and environmental consequences of using materials and energy and provide opportunities to achieve them, as well. Unlike most environmental management systems such as ISO 14001, which, despite their impact on reducing environmental damage, do not explicitly help increase farmers' incomes and even impose additional costs on farms, the implementation of the MFCA, by striking a balance between the environment and the economy, would have significant results in increasing energy and material productivity for many farms.
The main purpose of implementing MFCA in potato production is to quantify and identify the losses of agricultural inputs, which leads to effective management of residues and emissions in different stages of crop production. All output materials, including agricultural products and wastes in different stages of production, are calculated and measured in this method.
Materials and Methods: According to ISO 14051, the MFCA is a management tool that helps farmers recognize and reduce the potential environmental and financial consequences of product development. Likewise, this tool provides opportunities for achieving environmental and financial improvements through the transparency of processes. Accordingly, MFCA can provide important information at various stages of the cycle of Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) (figure 1).
 
The use of materials and energy in the agricultural sector is tracked and evaluated through the development of the material and energy flow model (in terms of physical units such as mass and volume) in the method of MFCA (figure 2). In this phase, the raw materials consumed, the energy used, costs, as well as the emissions to atmosphere, soil, and water are quantified. Within the system boundaries, the following assumptions and limitations are adopted:
System boundaries do not include: construction of factory buildings, vehicles, machines and equipment, etc.
System boundaries do not include: transportation
Energy balance analysis is a method to identify and evaluate various energy flows that take part in the production system. This analysis determines how efficient the energy is used by establishing the relationship between energy inputs and energy output. This relationship estimates whether energy is lost, gained, or would remain the same.
 
Figure (2): Material flow model for potato production within the MFCA boundary
 
Results and Discussion: According to the results, the highest amount of energy input comes from fossil fuels and nitrogen fertilizer. Based on the energy and economic indices calculated by the two accounting methods (i.e. conventional and material flow cost accounting), it was found that the total value of potato production based on conventional accounting is 7,195$ per hectare, while this figure is 8,212$ per hectare based on material flow cost accounting method. Energy efficiency in farms, applying conventional energy accounting, was calculated to be 2.65, while this index, using material flow cost accounting, was calculated to be 2.22. The difference between energy efficiency and cost-benefit ratio is attributed to the negative production value obtained in the potato production process in Hamadan province, Iran. Potato growers can increase their income up to 1,016$ per hectare through management measures. If the negative production is reduced, the cost-benefit ratio will increase by 0.57 in the production process.
Conclusion: Costing energy and energy flows through a comprehensive assessment of energy and costs helps to foster the relationship between the economy and the environment. Using the suggested solutions can save a significant amount of money on reducing negative products. MFCA recognizes the material and energy waste, and, farmers, by applying it, enhance their awareness of the usual losses in the field. Farmers, also, can improve processes on their farm and reduce production costs based on a rational assessment.

Abstract Introduction: Land use in the overall concept is said to be the type of using land in the current situation which contains all users in different sectors of agriculture, natural resources and the industry. Protecting land use is as follows: “Prevent the change of application of certain lands by their owners, if their change has negative natural, economic, political, cultural, or scientific effects”. Change of application of land is certainly the most important factor that will affect the protection of natural ecosystems. Thus, it is imperative to consider the importance of land use change from the perspective of environmental, economic, social and finally, its important aspects such as food security and the lack of planning for its realization and the changes that occur in these sectors.Factors affecting the development of land use change should be considered to finally be able to apply appropriate policies and strategic principles to reduce its negative effects. Materials and Methods:Thestudy’s data and information were obtained by simple random sampling and through interviews and 60 questionnaires that were completed by farmers and rice farmers of Tonekabon city that all or part of their land use had been changed and the datahadbeen collected in 2012. For investigating the factors affecting agricultural land use changes, the Tobit model of Heckman’s two-step was used. In this paper, the relationship between the factors that influence decision to change land use and actions to land use change were investigated. The variables including family size, literacy, experience, number of garden plots, citrus cultivation, kiwi cultivation, the price per square meter of garden land, the price per kilograms of horticultural crops (citrus), the price per kilograms of horticultural products (kiwi), number of pieces of agricultural land, cultivated level, the price per kilograms of crop, the price per square meter of agricultural land, satisfaction of supporting institutions and garden and agricultural insurance were used in this study. Results and Discussion: The estimated Probit model’s marginal effects showed that the variables of literacy, experience, citrus and kiwi cultivation, number of garden plots, the price per kilograms of horticultural products (kiwi), cultivated level, and the price per square meter of agricultural land have been positive signs that indicate a positive impact of these variables on the decision to change the use of land. The estimated linear regression model showed that the variables of number of garden plots, citrus cultivation, kiwi cultivation, the price per kilograms of horticultural crops (citrus), number of pieces of agricultural land, cultivated level and garden and agricultural insurance have been positive signs that indicate the positive impact of these variables on the action to change the use of land. Due to significant coefficients of the quantitative variables that influence the rate of change in land use, cultivation of citrus fruits is dedicated to most positive effects. As well, satisfaction of supporting institutions also has the most negative role as a dummy variable. Conclusion: The issues of land use change, prevention of land destruction and preservation of land, are of the main challenges in recent years. In this paper, we investigated the factors affecting change in land use by using a survey of 60 farmers in Tonekabon and the two-step Tobit model (Heckman) in 2012.The result of the Probit model showed that literacy levels, experience, number ofhorticulturalland pieces, area of citrusandkiwi,the price ofhorticultural products(kiwi), crop area and price ofland hada positive effect andhouseholdsize, price ofhorticultural land, price ofhorticultural products(citrus), number ofagricultural land price, and averageprice ofcrop, the satisfaction level of support in situations, horticultural and agricultural insurance had negative effects on thedecisionofchanging agriculturallandtohorticultural. Also, the results of the second stage Tobit regressi on model showed that the number of horticulturalland price, area of kiwi and citrus, price of horticultural products (citrus), pieces of agricultural land and crop area, price of land and horticulturalcropinsurance hada positive effect on householdsize,literacy levels, experience, price ofhorticultural products(kiwi), and price ofcrops and satisfaction level ofsupportinstitutions had a negative effect on thelevel ofchanging in land use. According to the findings, creation of expansion in surance for coverage of small farmers, preventing price volatility horticultural and agricultural products, paying attention to agricultural production asstrategic products and supporting the operation of this sector in a package is suggested.

Abstract Date is as one of the important items of the agricultural production in Iran as Iran's share of global production was 14.1% in 2012 and rank of production increased to second in the world too. In recent years, price uncertainty in date market has increased due to changes in government policies on date prices pattern, from a guaranteed buying pattern to negotiated price pattern. According to the importance of this industry in the country and issues that are always in marketing and market making of agricultural products in developing countries, This paper seeks to measure marketing margins in the industry due to the product's market power and price volatility, and to achieve this goal, the main idea of this paper based on the study Brorsen et al (11). This paper provides a conceptual and empirical framework for analyzing marketing margins in a date market facing output price uncertainty in Iran. Present study evaluated marketing margins into component reflecting the marginal cost of the processing industry, oligopoly price distortions, and an output risk component. The empirical finding is that, while marketing margin is about 33%, the coefficient for oligopoly is more than the coefficient for oligopsony. In the other words, there is an asymmetric monopoly power among buyers and sellers, Also the estimated coefficient for price risk based on exponential GARCH approach indicates, this factor would affect the marketing margin about 7 percent, if all other factors remain constant.

Abstract Introduction: Agricultural performance depends not only on the availability of physical resources and agricultural technologies, but also on the climate and environmental conditions prevailing on the farm. As the Earth's temperature rises, precipitation has become an unpredictable variable and has led to phenomena such as floods, droughts, etc. in addition, such phenomena have created a new sense of uncertainty for farmers with increasing uncertainty about the prediction of the future climate, and have faced producers with new types of climate problems. It is predicted that the frequency and severity of climate change will increase the challenges facing risk management, as atmospheric conditions (sudden and heavy rains, hurricanes, severe changes in air temperature and acid rain) affect the efficiency of production inputs (fertilizer, seed, pesticides, and so on). ...) Influential. Severe climate change during the growing season can cause serious damage to agriculture and affect farmers' decisions to allocate farm inputs and lead to reduced production and efficiency; Therefore, in analyzing the efficiency and financial and physical performance of the farm, in addition to the production inputs, we should also consider the climatic conditions in which the effect of spring rains on the technical efficiency of tomatoes is investigated.
Materials and Methods: Data from the crop year of 1395-1396 and The model used is a Modified Stochastic Production Frontier Approach (MSPF),with changes in the model so that in addition to the physical inputs of production, heavy rainfall during tomato growth and farm restoration costs (partial re-planting, part of the farm damaged by rainfall) Have been added to the the traditional model of Stochastic Production Frontier Approach (SPF) to estimate their impact on technical performance (in conventional models due to the lack of atmospheric variables, the estimated parameters are biased and the correlation between efficiency and bias is neglected and the bias bias causes the farm manager to decide. Conflicts d Wrong resource attribute and failed to make optimal use of resources). In addition, if the explanatory variables in the production function are correlated with the variables affecting technical performance and this correlation is ignored in the estimation of the production function parameters, it leads to biased estimates of the parameters thus avoiding this kind of correlation, Betis and Coeli's one-step approach is used to determine the factors affecting production efficiency, in which the technical efficiency of the fields is related to the socio-economic conditions of the farmers, management skills and demographic characteristics, etc.Eventually the Modified Stochastic Production Frontier Approach have been compared and the results have been compared with the traditional model of Stochastic Production Frontier Approach.
Results: According to the results of the correlation coefficients estimated between production inputs and rainfall and farm repair costs, there is a relatively strong correlation between heavy rainfall, seed rate and labor force. Heavy rains increase the need for labor to compensate and repair the farm. Rainfall is also negatively correlated with pesticides, since it is washed off by rainfall and instead of being absorbed by pesticides, it is washed out and eliminated, and the farmer is aware of this problem and uses less pesticide during heavy rainfall. Precipitation has a negative effect on pests. Rain is positively correlated with fertilizer as expected, as rainfall can absorb fertilizer faster into the soil and root of the plant. Rain is positively associated with seed because heavy rains destroy the transplants and the farmer must re-transplant. Although the relationship between repair costs and rainfall was not positive but significant, it may be because some of the repair costs (more fertilizer, manpower and seed consumption) were in the three inputs. To test the effect of atmospheric factors on production and technical efficiency, the model parameters were estimated once without the presence of these variables and once added to the model. Comparison of the results from the application of these two models confirms that ignoring the atmospheric variables in the estimation of the technical efficiency leads to bias in the estimation parameters. According to another part of the results: 1- Heavy rainfall caused 100% damage to the farm resulting in technical efficiency reduction, 2- Adding atmospheric variables to the model (MSPF pattern), all input coefficients and technical efficiency change This reflects the impact of atmospheric variables on efficiency and production that were overlooked in previous studies. 3. The high technical efficiency difference estimated in the two models means that in the rainless model, the technical efficiency estimates are more biased, 4. Toxins Chemical in the SPF pattern has a significant relationship with production but in the MSPF model, the coefficient of this variable is not significant because it is likely to wash away the heavy pesticide precipitation and eliminate its effects. 5 - Interesting findings of this study Interaction between inputs And there is heavy rainfall so that heavy rainfall not only damages the farm but also reduces the efficiency of other inputssignificant.6- Proper use of inputs can increase technical efficiency by 14%, resulting in a 19% increase in production and an 11.6% decrease in production costs
Conclusion: Atmospheric factors, especially severe and short-term rains, reduce the technical efficiency and tomato production.

Abstract Introduction: Developing economies suffer from high degree of macroeconomic uncertainty. Growth, inflation, real exchange rates and other key macroeconomic variables are much more volatile, and the consequences of this excess volatility for aggregate performance in several dimensions like growth, investment and trade, have attracted some attention in recent empirical literature. In the case of investment, this concern has been renewed by recent theoretical work identifying several channels through which uncertainty can impact investment, under various assumptions about risk aversion, adjustment costs to investment and other factors. Iran, has a high degree of uncertainty in the macroeconomic variables. One of the major challenges related to the management of the foreign exchange market in Iran comes back to agricultural investment. Among different investments in economic sectors, investment in agricultural sector possesses a special prominence and position since investment in agricultural sector not only induce the growth of production and employment in this very sector, but also encourages production and employment growth in other economic sectors. Therefore, identifying effective factors on investment in agricultural sector and adopting suitable policies for increasing investment, possesses a supreme prominence. In Iran, the notions of finance and investment have always been facing several difficulties due to deep independence to oil revenues and instability of its price as well as high risk it involves; and for this reason, investing in different sectors, including agriculture, has always experienced severe fluctuations.
Materials and Methods: Data on agricultural investment in Iran were provided by annual statistics from 1978-2016. All of the following data were gathered from the statistical office of the Central Bank of Iran including Investment in agricultural sector in Rials using a constant price of 2011 = 100, Annual real GDP using a constant price of 2011 = 100, Short run interest rate on bank facilities and loan, and loans given to agricultural sector by banks.
NARDL Method When the order of integration is not the same for all variables then we use the lagged variables as proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Imagine two variables and their relation as follow:                                                
To check the asymmetries, we have to make a separate series for appreciation and depreciation as proposed by Bahmani-Oskooee and Soharabian (1992). A series of exchange rate will be divided in its positive movements or appreciation, as indicated by, and negative movements or depreciation, as indicated by, and is given as follows:              
To check the impact of positive and negative movements of one variable on the other variable, Equation above will be transformed as:  
The non-linear ARDL model can be described as follows 
Results and Discussion: In order to study the nonlinear effect of exchange rate and its shock on investment in agricultural sector, a NARDL model has been used. The results of Ramsey Reset Test show that the model is well-specified. LM test has been applied to investigate auto correlation. The results of LM test also reveal that the zero hypothesis is not rejected, and the final model does not have the problem of consistent correlation. The Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Test (BPG) has been employed to investigate the phenomenon of heteroskedasticity. The results of this test also indicate that for the final model, the zero hypothesis is not rejected, and therefore the pattern do not have the problem of Heteroskedasticity. Positive shocks of exchange rate have shown a negative impact on agricultural investment in the current and previous two periods. While negative shocks of exchange rate have had a positive effect on current investment. NARDL pattern is a method which considers the short-run dynamics among the variables and estimates the long-run relationships as well. In this pattern first the dynamic model, then the long-run relation and error correcting pattern are fitted. The results of the Wald test show that the hypothesis of symmetry between positive and negative shocks is rejected and hence the effect of currency shocks is asymmetric. In the long run, changes in positive currency shocks have had a negative effect on investment. Results of F test also approve the long run relation. H0 is rejected and the presence of long-run relation is confirmed. The presence of co-integration among a set of economic variables provides a statistical base for using the error correction pattern. In the short term, current currency shocks and the previous two period currency shocks have had a negative and significant impact on agricultural investment. In Short term, changes in negative shock had no effect on investment. Also, after 1.5 periods, the short-term imbalances are adjusted in the long run.
Conclusion: This study used a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to check an asymmetrical relationship between Exchange volatilities and agricultural Investment. In current study, the Hodrick Prescott filter has been used to derive exchange rate volatilities. Results have shown that: 1) there is a negative and significant relationship between exchange rate shocks and investment in the agricultural sector in the short and long term. 2) With respect to negative impact of exchange rate on investing in agricultural sector, if this exchange rate increases remain stable, investment in the agricultural sector would decline very severe. Given the direct and historical impact of investing in the current period, investment will also be a problem for future years. Since given loan have had a positive impact on the investment, it is suggested that government increases these loans and facilities. The purpose of this policy is to prevent current investments decreases. 3) With respect to negative reaction of investment to US-Dollar-denominated shocks, the decline in US-Dollar dependency and the use of other high-yielding currencies such as the EURO currencies are appropriate. There are asymmetrical linkages between these two variables therefore negative exchange rate volatilities have positive effect and positive exchange rate volatilities have negative and significant effect on agricultural investment. The effect of negative shocks was less than the positive ones.

Abstract Introduction: Human activities have induced change and variation in world climate. Climate change and variability are important issues because of their effects on agriculture, environment, public health and total society. Developing countries are generally more vulnerable to the consequences of these changes, as they tend to rely more on climate-sensitive sectors, such as subsistence agriculture where lack the resources to buffer themselves against the changes. Researches have been done in Iran indicate the occurrence of climate change and variation. The agriculture sector is one of those that seriously affected by climate change and variation therefore to maintain their livelihood farmers need to adapt to climate change and variation. Agriculture is a risky job inherently, and climate change with unexpected future worsens the situation. These changes are a serious threat, especially for smallholder farmers’ livelihood, because they lack sufficient resources such as credit or crop insurance to adapt to this change and to cope with challenges. Adaptation involves the action that people take in response to, or in anticipation of, projected or actual changes in climate to reduce adverse impacts or take advantage of the opportunities posed by climate change. There is very uncertainty about how farmers will respond to the climate change and variation, so more understanding of social and economic factors that affect farmers’ perception of climate change and variation and their response to these changes is needed. This research was conducted in three phases to investigate farmers’ barriers to adaptation to climate change and suggest solutions to improve the situation in Marvadasht County, Fars Province. Materials and Methods: In phase one, consulting Marvdasht Jihad-Agriculture experts two villages purposefully selected as research sample. One village with highest climate variation and one village with lowest climate variation. A qualitative research using focus group depth interview technique was implemented in selected villages and farmers perspectives about main obstacles and barriers of farmers adaptation to climate variation was investigated. In phase two, based on phase one results also literature review, eight barriers recognized as a farmers main problem. Then to rank the importance of these barriers from farmers perspective a survey research was conducted on 307 farmers selected by multistage stratified random sampling from four sections of Marvdasht County. In phase three, based on the results of the previous phases as well library research, suggested solutions for improvement of the situation of farmers adaptation were determined. Perceptions of Marvdasht Jihad-Agriculture experts’ perspective was investigated about suggested solutions in an expert group session. Then, using a general question and open discussion experts perspective about farmers barriers to adaptation to climate variation and their suggested solutions were investigated. Results and Discussion: Based on research findings, in phase one, eight barriers of farmers adaptation were recognized in two villages with a different situation in a focus group depth interview. These barriers include financial constraints and lack of saved money, lack of credit and loan problem, inequitable distribution of governmental facilities, unsuitable programing to distribute facilities, organizational bureaucracy, insurance problems, lack of a suitable market to sale products, and land fragmentation. In phase two, based on survey results barriers ranked in two groups of individual and institutional barriers, and in phase three based on Marvdasht Jihad-Agriculture experts’ viewpoints, the present and ideal condition of solutions to face the challenges of adaptation were presented in three dimensions (providing information, farm management, as well administration and financing). Based on experts’ perspective, these solutions ranked regarding their necessity and importance of attention. More essential solutions were: presenting information and consultation about whether situation and forecast to farmers in radio and television as well as agricultural extension service centers, decreasing bad usage of water resources and deeping the well, preventing the crops like rice with high water need and cultivating crops with low water need and drought resistant, improving the credit supply system to decrease farmers’ financial problems and lack of capital (include low interest loans, crop insurance, production subsidies…). According to experts’ view points, there are 12 barriers and obstacles for farmers’ adaptation to climate variation and they suggested some recommendations to reduce these barriers. Conclusion: Agriculture is highly dependent on weather situation and alteration in weather parameters such as temperature, precipitation and CO2 as a result of climate change influence farming system outputs. Adaptation to climate change and variation is a prerequisite for sustainable development. Farmers to maintain their livelihood also coping and adapt to climate variation face different barriers and obstacles, they need support from related organizations to overcome these barriers. In this regard the first action of organizations and individual that have responsibility is suitable recognition of farmers’ situation and their problems. As research findings reveal there are various problems and obstacles regarding the perspective of farmers and experts. Considering these problems and suggested solutions from different stakeholders, it could be hopeful to see better adaptation to climate variation in the future.