Research Article
Agricultural Economics
M. Mahmoudi; H. Mohammadi; A. Karbasi
Abstract
IntroductionAccording to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 7.2 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population ...
Read More
IntroductionAccording to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 7.2 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population growth) will increase by 150 to 170 percent by 2050. Today, one of the problems and threats facing the realization of food security in human societies is existence of an unusual amount of agricultural product waste.Every year, about one third and approximately 1.3 billion tons of total food production consumed by humans with a monetary value of 936 billion dollars, it is lost or wasted, which means that 0.9 million hectares and 306 square kilometers of water required for the production of agricultural products are wasted every year. The presence of this amount of waste in Iran's agricultural products indicates a significant waste of resources in country, and management of the country's resources (especially water) according to Iran's climatic situation and forecasting and drawing the future. It is telling that (resources used in agricultural sector) will soon become an important challenge. Considering that in country, 93.5% of water resources are used in agriculture, other issues such as pollution of water reserves, transfer of agricultural water to other sectors and low efficiency of water consumption in agriculture, increasing demand for water, increasing periods drought, phenomenon of fine dust, human impact on natural resources, etc. affect the amount of agricultural production.Subgroups of fruits and vegetables have the largest share in the consumption basket of households, but there are no specific statistics for recent years about share of consumption per capita of households (separated by products used) in Iran. It is important to note that the amount of waste generated by consumers varies between 1 kg per household per week and 4.5 kg per person per week, depending on consumer behavior. Given the significance of agricultural inputs, particularly water, in the production of these agricultural products and their substantial share in household consumption, this research focuses on the fruit and vegetable subgroups. Materials and MethodsThe case study of this research acknowledges that, in addition to consumers in Mashhad, there is heterogeneity among retail and wholesale shops, as well as the city's main market squares, each contributing to varying percentages of agricultural product waste. These differences can fluctuate based on urban areas, necessitating a model that accounts for the heterogeneity within the studied population. Therefore, the multilevel Bayesian model was selected as the most appropriate tool, as discussed in the following section on the modeling methodology. Results and DiscussionBased on the results in Table (7), the gender variable, with a mean value of 0.8285 for its parameter distribution, falls within the estimated confidence interval. It is identified as one of the factors influencing the reduction of waste in fruit and vegetable products. Specifically, being a woman and having women manage household affairs (compared to men) leads to a reduction in waste. Regarding the education level of consumers, waste from fruit and vegetable products is significant only in the group with a diploma to bachelor's degree (compared to the group with education levels below a diploma). The negative sign of the average distribution of its parameter (-1.4599) indicates that this group produces more waste than those with lower education levels. The variable of household size also affects the amount of waste from fruit and vegetable products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.3151. An increase in household size is associated with a reduction in waste. Additionally, the number of people working in the family (mean parameter distribution = 0.3733) also reduces waste, likely because a higher number of working family members can lead to increased income, allowing for the purchase of higher-quality products. The relative price parameter of agricultural products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.1475, reduces the waste generated by consumers. As the relative price of agricultural products (e.g., fruits and vegetables) increases—when consumers compare the value of these products to other goods—they realize that consuming these products will result in less waste. Similarly, the parameter related to the distribution location of agricultural products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.1744, also reduces the waste generated by consumers. This suggests that the more efficiently agricultural products are distributed, the less waste is produced. Suitable places for product distribution can give better access and power of choice to consumer, and based on this, consumer can avoid bulk purchases or worry about running out of products in nearby stores; He avoids and the amount of waste formed by him decreases. Product parameter (goods or services offered to customer) for agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = -0.1902) causes an increase in the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. In other words, with increase in the supply of products (fruits and vegetables), consumers become more willing to buy and consume (like consuming a specific product during the supply season), and this causes increase in number of purchases to affect the amount of waste generated. Parameter of promoting agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.0683) reduces the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. With better introduction of product and advertisements related to the production process until its consumption; consumer understands the value of the product and tries to reduce its waste. ConclusionThe research demonstrates that individual and marketing mix factors can effectively reduce waste. Beyond the importance of each link in the food supply chain, consumer-level interventions using the marketing mix (price, product, promotion, and location) can contribute to reducing agricultural product waste. Therefore, studying consumer behavior, considering individual and social characteristics and the influence of the marketing mix, represents a potentially low-cost solution for minimizing agricultural product waste.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
S.M.J. Esfahani; E. Barikani
Abstract
IntroductionMany governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major ...
Read More
IntroductionMany governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major problem, especially in developing countries. On the one hand, the government aims to boost food production by offering agricultural subsidies. On the other hand, the excessive use of chemical inputs due to these subsidies has raised concerns about environmental pollution. Therefore, one of the most significant global challenges is to balance agricultural production to meet the increasing demand of the growing population while maintaining the quality of the environment. Any changes in government support policies for the agricultural sector can lead to fluctuations in input and product prices, directly impacting farmers' profits. As a result, these changes can influence cultivation patterns and the use of agricultural inputs, ultimately affecting the environment. Therefore, before implementing any policy changes, it is crucial to assess both the economic and environmental impacts and make informed decisions based on these considerations.Materials and MethodsThis study uses positive mathematical programming (PMP) on the environmental impact of chemical fertilizers’ subsidies change and transfer subsidies to crops in Zarandieh city of Markazi province. The necessary information was collected through the statistical sources of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad for the crop year 2023 for the three crops including irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, and silage corn, which occupies more than 85 percent of the cultivated area of this region. At the first stage, the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by each product was calculated, and then the environmental impact of different subsidy policies was investigated. To calculate the greenhouse gas emissions, the emission coefficient of each of the inputs that have been cited in various studies was used. To model and analyze the data, positive mathematical programming with the cost function approach was used. Excel and GAMS software has been used to run the models.Results and DiscussionThe results of the study showed that the highest amount of greenhouse gas emissions is related to corn silage, and electricity, diesel, and chemical fertilizers have the largest share of the greenhouse gas emissions. The simulation results for the region’s cultivation patterns, considering scenarios where only chemical fertilizers—N-fertilizer, P-fertilizer, and K-fertilizer—were used separately and together with increases of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, indicate that as input prices rise, both the cultivated area and farmers' income decrease. Additionally, increasing the price of P-fertilizer has a greater potential to reduce environmental impact compared to raising the price of other chemical fertilizers.To assess the environmental impact of reallocating subsidies from chemical inputs to agricultural products, a scenario was simulated in which the price of chemical inputs increased by 100%, while product prices rose by 5% and 10%, respectively. The model results revealed that the lowest environmental impact per hectare of crop production occurs when chemical fertilizer prices increase by 100% and product prices rise by 5%.Based on these findings, reallocating subsidies to agricultural products rather than production inputs appears to yield more favorable environmental outcomes. In other words, when the subsidy is allocated to the product instead of chemical inputs, the environmental impact of crop production in this area would be reduced and the amount of emissions per hectare of farm or million Tomans of gross profit would be less compared to other situations.ConclusionIt is necessary to support the agricultural sector to boost food production but these supports should be done with the least environmental impact. According to the findings of this study, if subsidies are given to agricultural products instead of inputs, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced while maintaining the area of crops and the amount of gross profit of farmers. The policy of setting a guaranteed price for basic agricultural products in Iran can be a suitable tool to realize this. In other words, transferring the credits allocated for purchasing chemical fertilizers to the guaranteed purchase of agricultural products will be an effective step in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and their impact, as well as maintaining the country's food security.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
A. Sani Heidary; E. Safari
Abstract
IntroductionIn the continuity of human life, agriculture as a strategic activity plays a key role in providing food. In addition, the agricultural sector plays an important role in economic development, social welfare and environmental sustainability of all countries. However, this sector is facing many ...
Read More
IntroductionIn the continuity of human life, agriculture as a strategic activity plays a key role in providing food. In addition, the agricultural sector plays an important role in economic development, social welfare and environmental sustainability of all countries. However, this sector is facing many challenges in recent years. Some of its most important challenges include the increasing growth of the world's population, a 40% reduction in water and soil resources, the destruction of a quarter of agricultural land, climate change, a lack of specialized labor, poor access to financial resources, strict laws, and a decrease in the number of farmers due to a decrease in motivation. Therefore, in order to meet the growing demand for food and overcome its challenges, the agricultural sector is forced to look for new solutions such as adopting digital transformation enhanced by artificial intelligence technology. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has recently become increasingly prominent in the agricultural sector. AI-based solutions assist farmers in achieving higher productivity with fewer resources, ensuring the production of high-quality and healthy products, and accelerating the marketing process. Given the significance of AI technology in enhancing the overall efficiency of the agricultural sector, this research aims to identify the key predictors that influence the behavioral intention and adoption of AI technology in agricultural companies. Materials and MethodsThe main objective of this research is to determine the key predictors of behavioral intention and behavior of using artificial intelligence technology in agricultural companies through the combination of the developed UTAUT2 model and TOE factors. The statistical population of this research is the total employees of nine cultivation and industry of Razavi Agricultural Company, which are about 465 people. Data were collected by completing multidimensional questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews from households in 2023. In total, 250 questionnaires were completed. Data of 39 respondents were excluded due to missing values. The questionnaire is designed based on the seven-point Likert scale (strongly disagree = 1, strongly agree = 7). The questionnaire used in this research includes 14 constructs in the form of 60 items. Excel 2019 software was used to analyze the raw data of the questionnaire and SmartPLS software was used to test the research hypotheses. In order to guarantee the stability of the data, a complete bootstrap method with 5000 sub-samples was performed. Results and DiscussionThe results revealed that the values of Cronbach's alpha and CR for all constructs were higher than 0.7, which shows acceptable internal consistency of the model and adequate reliability of the research constructs. AVE scores and factor loading values for all constructs are above 0.5, which indicates the correct definition of constructs and high convergence between constructs and its items. The values of rho_A as an important reliability measure for PLS-SEM for all constructs are greater than the acceptable value of 0.7. The results of the Fornell-Larcker criteria and the Heterotrait-Monotrait ratio (HTMT) indicate that the model is confirmed in terms of the constructs' discriminative validity. In addition, the research model was able to explain 89.4 and 51.7 percent of the variance of the variables of behavioral intention and the behavior of people to use artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural sector. According to the results, all research hypotheses are confirmed and the behavioral intention to adopt artificial intelligence technology is positively and significantly influenced by expected performance, social effects, hope for effort, facilitating conditions, pleasure-seeking motivation, price-value, habit, trust in technology, technological aspects, organizational aspects, and environmental aspects. However, the fear of technology variable has a negative and significant impact on people's behavioral intention. ConclusionThis study highlights the determining the role of expected performance constructs, social influences, fear of technology, and organizational and environmental aspects compared to other constructs in predicting people's behavioral intention to adopt artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural sector and provides important information for different stakeholders. According to the results, it is suggested that the government should invest in the development of the necessary infrastructure for this technology and provide a platform for its development by establishing efficient laws and paying low-interest facilities. In addition, Designers should create user-friendly tools tailored to the agricultural conditions of the country.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
F. Fathi; M. Behnam
Abstract
IntroductionThe growing virtual water trade globally reflects economic principles associated with international trade, particularly the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Each nation tends to export products that utilize relatively abundant and inexpensive production factors while importing those that necessitate ...
Read More
IntroductionThe growing virtual water trade globally reflects economic principles associated with international trade, particularly the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Each nation tends to export products that utilize relatively abundant and inexpensive production factors while importing those that necessitate scarce and costly resources. The strategic use of virtual water in the management of water resources is a critical issue, mainly, considering that a significant portion of Iran experiences arid and semi-arid conditions, leading to severe and increasing water shortages. Among the agricultural products that Iran requires are oilseeds, such as soybean and sunflower, which the country produces and imports in substantial quantities annually. Materials and MethodsThe present study aims to assess the trend of importing virtual water from oilseeds through trade partners and determine the effects of economic and environmental factors influencing their import during 2005-2020, utilizing the generalized gravity model. Economic and trade variables such as the ratio of Iran's GDP to other countries, import tariff ratio, real exchange rate growth, country risk index, distance between countries, and sanctions are considered. Environmental variables such as area under cultivation, access to water, and lack of access to water per capita are also included. The variables related to access and lack of access to water consist of four environmental factors: total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal, and total freshwater volume. Results and DiscussionThe virtual water trading model is considered a scientific model and a practical solution to address the water shortage crisis in countries, especially Iran. In this research, through gravity models, the determinants affecting the volume of oilseed imports to Iran were identified. The variables of the ratio of Iran's GDP to the trading partner country and the access to water of the trading partner country were effective in both estimations, while the variable of the import tariff ratio was not effective in any of them. The risk variables of the countries have also been effective in importing virtual water. The variables of access to water and lack of access to water are environmental variables that influence the model, similar to economic variables. Therefore, the import of oilseeds is affected by economic variables; however, since the importation of oilseeds is supported to meet the country's needs and government currency has been utilized during the studied period, the variable of real exchange rate growth has less effect on imports. On the other hand, the variables of access and lack of access to water, which consist of four environmental factors (total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal, and total freshwater volume), play an important role in the import of virtual water through oilseeds to Iran.The following suggestions can be made: Considering the significance of the variable distance between countries in the estimation, instead of meeting the demand for oilseeds from producers located at a large geographical distance, it is suggested to exchange these products with neighboring countries and regional markets if they are capable of producing these products. In other words, the Iranian government should accept the risk of importing oilseeds from neighboring and regional markets that are closer, rather than necessarily from the production hub. This may reduce the cost of importing this product by choosing these countries. Additionally, based on the role of the risk index, it is expected that countries with lower risk will be chosen as trading partners. Although the area under cultivation may be associated with a reduction in virtual water imports, considering the state of Iran's water resources and the need to import these two types of oilseeds, increasing the area under cultivation may not be feasible. Importing virtual water can play an important role in the sustainability of water resources while simultaneously meeting domestic needs. Based on the significance of access to and lack of access to water in the estimated relationships for soybean and sunflower production, certain countries have a relative advantage in cultivating these crops. Therefore, to enhance the management and sustainability of water resources, it is recommended to import from countries with greater water availability and higher production capacity. As a result, importing more virtual water supports the conservation of local water resources while ensuring the cultivation of these crops.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
S.M. Seyedan; M. Motaghed
Abstract
IntroductionEffective measures in grape production and processing are essential for understanding market needs. By leveraging acquired knowledge, products should be aligned with market demand, which requires a thorough understanding and application of the value chain. The value chain is a network of ...
Read More
IntroductionEffective measures in grape production and processing are essential for understanding market needs. By leveraging acquired knowledge, products should be aligned with market demand, which requires a thorough understanding and application of the value chain. The value chain is a network of actors who are involved in the supply, production, processing, marketing, and consumption of a product or service, and its actors seek to realize added value in each of the links of the chain and add value as a whole. It is for the activities that take place along the chain. An efficient value chain plays a key role in reducing poverty and food security in the country and has inherent potential for the development of job opportunities. The benefits of the value chain include reducing production costs, increasing productivity, providing valuable services to farmers, a variety of new services with added value, innovation at a faster speed, creating new circles, creating more jobs, reducing rural poverty, transparency in the price of agricultural products, balance of supply and demand, improvement of quality and health of agricultural products, reduction of product waste, increase of product health quality, increase of real profit, consumer satisfaction, reduction of mediation and brokerage, increase of flexibility power and sustainability in production and export. Materials and MethodsIn this research, data was collected from each agent (link in the chain) using a questionnaire. Various methods exist for analyzing the value chain, with the SWOT analysis (identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, as well as determining strategic positioning) being the most significant. This method was utilized in the study and will be briefly explained in relation to the SWOT matrix analysis process. However, since the SWOT analytical matrix generates multiple strategies without prioritizing them, the QSPM matrix was employed to establish priorities. This matrix is used in the last stage of strategy development and for selecting and prioritizing strategies. This matrix prioritizes different strategy options according to their attractiveness score. Results and DiscussionIn the present study; 74 components in the template (15 strengths, 23 weaknesses, 19 threats and 17 opportunities) were extracted and categorized. To evaluate the internal factors of the grape value chain with an emphasis on its yield, the internal factors evaluation matrix (IFE) was used. In this matrix, the strengths and weaknesses were listed and scored using special coefficients and ranks to determine the final score of the evaluation of internal factors. The analysis of internal factors revealed a total score of 61.2, indicating that the grape value chain in Hamedan Province is in a strong position. In other words, its internal strengths outweigh its weaknesses. Similarly, the analysis of external factors showed a weighted score of 2.87. Therefore, the grape value chain in Hamedan has an external opportunity. In other words, the opportunities of the grape value chain are more than its threats. Conclusion and SuggestionsTo improve this situation, the raisin value chain model was designed based on observations and research findings. This model is an executive model that has five main actors including 1- Input supply link (without timely supply of inputs and without creating a basis for the development of a competitive environment in this link, one cannot hope for sustainable production and export), 2- The link of grape growers is 3- the circle of packaging and processing factories, 4- the circle of distribution and marketing, and 5- the circle of consumption and communication with customers. This model also has a support link (providing consulting, training, and support services to investors to help create and launch new businesses within the chain) that supports all the links in terms of structure, design, research, training, financial management, and resource management. Humanity supports. These measures attract investment, create employment, develop chain links and growth, and help to achieve the goals of economic and social development of the region. The most significant missing link in the grape value chain is the production and processing of the product under a specialized brand. Establishing these processes is essential for attracting foreign markets. Given the high quality of grapes in Hamedan Province and their potential to compete with international products, it is crucial to transform this potential into reality. This requires the development of high-quality processed products to gain a competitive edge and capture market share from competitors.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
R. Heydari; E. Javdan; M. Shabanzadeh Khoshrody
Abstract
IntroductionFood prices are an important indicator of societal well-being, and food inflation can deepen poverty in developing economies. Severe food price fluctuations not only affect food security in developing countries, but also affect economic growth and social stability. Any increase in food prices ...
Read More
IntroductionFood prices are an important indicator of societal well-being, and food inflation can deepen poverty in developing economies. Severe food price fluctuations not only affect food security in developing countries, but also affect economic growth and social stability. Any increase in food prices can push many people back below the poverty line. Rising food prices hit low-income households hard, as the household food basket accounts for nearly half of household living expenses. Therefore, food price stability is of particular importance to policymakers trying to lift households above the poverty line. Food prices in Iran have always been on the rise, and even in recent years, the rate of food price growth has accelerated. Today, inflation, especially food inflation, remains a major problem in Iran, and policymakers are always trying to reduce food inflation. In this regard, and with the aim of controlling food prices, different policies have been implemented in Iran, and the effectiveness of these policies has been discussed. Therefore, understanding the behavior of food prices in response to macroeconomic factors is essential for policymakers to implement appropriate policies at the right time and place to keep domestic prices stable. In this regard, in the present study, the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables (money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and trade openness) affecting food inflation in Iran is examined using the nonlinear ARDL approach. Materials and MethodsThe main objective of this study is to examine the asymmetric effect of domestic macroeconomic factors on food prices in Iran using a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. According to the theoretical literature, in this study, it is assumed that food prices are a function of macroeconomic variables, including money supply (MS), GDP per capita (GDPER), exchange rate (RATE), trade openness (OPEN), and global economic policy uncertainty index (EPU). Therefore, in accordance with Shin et al. (2014), the NARDL model used in this study is developed to examine the asymmetric effect of domestic macroeconomic factors (for example, money supply) as follows: In the above relationship, each of the macroeconomic factors (including the money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and trade openness) is separated into the sum of positive and negative components. In fact, two additional variables are created in each equation, one indicating an increase in the variable of interest with a positive sign and the other indicating a decrease with a negative sign. The variable of global economic policy uncertainty index also plays the role of a control variable. Due to the availability of data, the time period in this study is 1991 to 2022. Results and DiscussionThe results of the linear and nonlinear bounds test in the ARDL model showed that there is a long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables including money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, trade openness, global economic policy uncertainty and food prices in Iran. In addition, the results of short-term and long-term symmetry tests using the Wald test showed that the effect of the exchange rate variable on food inflation in Iran is asymmetric in the long and short run, while the effect of the money supply and GDP per capita variables is asymmetric only in the long run; the effect of the trade openness variable is also symmetric in the short and long run and has a linear behavior. The results of the ARDL linear model estimation showed that in the short and long run, the effect of the growth of the variables of money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate and global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran is positive and significant, while the effect of trade openness is negative and significant. The results of the NARDL model estimation also showed that the response of food inflation to increases and decreases in money supply and GDP growth is positive and significant, and their increase on food inflation is greater than the effect of their decrease. The response of food inflation in the long and short term to increases in the exchange rate is positive and significant, while the effect of decreasing the exchange rate in the long and short term is negative, but not statistically significant, and the effect of increasing the exchange rate on food inflation in the long term is greater than its effect in the short term. The effect of trade openness on food inflation is symmetric, with an increase in trade openness leading to a reduction in food inflation in both the short and long term. ConclusionLinking the prices of agricultural products to market conditions and liberalizing the market for these products is an appropriate method for coordinating the effects of macro policies and specific agricultural policies that should be considered by policymakers. Given the importance of the agricultural sector, the government's economic policies in relation to food prices will be of high importance and sensitivity. Considering the results of implementing contractionary monetary policies in coordination with other Central Bank policies, increasing investment and efforts to increase productivity in the agricultural sector, appropriate foreign exchange policies are recommended to prevent unreasonable increases in the exchange rate, and reducing tariffs and trade restrictions to increase trade openness.
)
