Research Article
M. Mahmoudi; H. Mohammadi; A. Karbasi
Abstract
Introduction According to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 2.7 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population ...
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Introduction According to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 2.7 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population growth) will increase by 150 to 170 percent by 2050. Today, one of the problems and threats facing the realization of food security in human societies is existence of an unusual amount of agricultural product waste. Every year, about one third and approximately 1.3 billion tons of total food production used by humans with a monetary value of 936 billion dollars, it is lost or wasted, which means that 0.9 million hectares and 306 square kilometers of water required for the production of agricultural products are wasted every year. The presence of this amount of waste in Iran's agricultural products indicates a significant waste of resources in country, and management of the country's resources (especially water) according to Iran's climatic situation and forecasting and drawing the future; It is telling that (resources used in agricultural sector) will soon become an important challenge. Considering that in country, 93.5% of water resources are used in agriculture, other issues such as pollution of water reserves, transfer of agricultural water to other sectors and low efficiency of water consumption in agriculture, increasing demand for water, increasing periods drought, phenomenon of fine dust, human impact on natural resources, etc. affect the amount of agricultural production.Subgroups of fruits and vegetables have the largest share in the consumption basket of households, but there are no specific statistics for recent years about share of consumption per capita of households (separated by products used) in Iran. It should be remembered that the amount of waste created by consumer’s ranges from 1 kg/household/week to 4.5 kg/person/week based on consumer's behavioral characteristics; it can be variable. Therefore, in this research, considering the importance of agricultural inputs (especially water) for the production of these agricultural products and the high percentage of share in consumption portfolio of households; Subgroups of fruits and vegetables were selected.Materials and Methods The research case study believes that in addition to consumers of Mashhad; there is heterogeneity among retail and wholesale shops as well as main market squares of city, and each can have a different percentage of waste from agricultural products. These differences can be variable based on the urban area and based on these differences; A model should be chosen that can take into account the heterogeneity of the studied society. Based on this, the multilevel Bayesian model was used as a more suitable tool, which is mentioned in following section on the modeling method of this model.Results and Discussion Based on the results in table (9), gender variable according to mean value of its parameter distribution (0.8285) is in the estimated confidence interval; It is one of the variables affecting reduction of waste of fruit and vegetable products in such a way that gender of being a woman and the management of family affairs by women (compared to men); it reduces waste. For variable of education level of consumers, waste created by fruit and vegetable products is effective only in diploma to bachelor group (compared to education level group to diploma) and according to negative sign of average distribution of its parameter (-1.4599) it shows that this category they produce more waste than people. The variable of household size has an effect on amount of waste of fruit and vegetable products (parameter distribution mean = 0.3151) and increasing dimension and size of the household has reduced waste. Also, the number of people working in the family (parameter distribution mean = 0.3733) has reduced the waste of fruit and vegetable products, and this can be because with increase in number of workers in families; level of income can change and products with better quality levels can be purchased. The variable of people's type of job has an effect on reducing the waste of fruit and vegetable products, and with improvement of quality of the job, amount of waste decreases. The relative price parameter of agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.1475) reduces waste formed on agricultural products by consumers. By increasing relative price of agricultural products (e.g. fruits and vegetables) to consumer by comparing the value of that product with other goods and other products; He realizes that the consumption of that product will create the least amount of waste. Parameter of distribution location of agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.1744) reduces waste formed on agricultural products by consumers. Suitable places for product distribution can give better access and power of choice to consumer, and based on this, consumer can avoid bulk purchases or worry about running out of products in nearby stores; He avoids and the amount of waste formed by him decreases. Product parameter (goods or services offered to customer) for agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = -0.1902) causes an increase in the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. In other words, with increase in the supply of products (fruits and vegetables), consumers become more willing to buy and consume (like consuming a specific product during the supply season), and this causes increase in amount of purchases to affect the amount of waste generated. Parameter of promoting agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.0683) reduces the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. With better introduction of product and advertisements related to the production process until its consumption; consumer understands the value of the product and tries to reduce its waste.Conclusions The final results of research showed that individual and mixed marketing factors can play an effective role in reducing waste. Based on this, it can be said that in addition to importance of each link of the food supply chain; in consumer level, it is possible to contribute to reducing waste of agricultural products by using mixed marketing tools (including price, product, promotion and appropriate location of product). Therefore, consumer behavior studies are considered to be one of low-cost solutions to reduce amount of agricultural product waste according to individual-social characteristics and effective role of marketing mix.
Research Article-en
H. Hashemzadeh; N. Yousefian; S. Esfandiari; A. Karbasi; A. Firoozzare
Abstract
A data mining approach to consumers’ choice of retail market: The case of municipal retail markets in IranAbstractUrban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence ...
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A data mining approach to consumers’ choice of retail market: The case of municipal retail markets in IranAbstractUrban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results reveal that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer
Research Article
S.M.J. Esfahani; E. Barikani
Abstract
Introduction
Many governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major ...
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Introduction
Many governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major problem, especially in developing countries. On the one hand, the government aims to boost food production by offering agricultural subsidies. On the other hand, the excessive use of chemical inputs due to these subsidies has raised concerns about environmental pollution. Therefore, one of the most significant global challenges is to balance agricultural production to meet the increasing demand of the growing population while maintaining the quality of the environment. In general, any change in the government's support policies in the agricultural sector can lead to fluctuations in input and product prices, affecting farmers' profits. Consequently, such changes can influence cultivation patterns and the consumption of agricultural inputs. So, it leads to a change in environmental impact. Therefore, before making any changes in policy, it is essential to examine the economic and environmental impacts and base decisions on economic and environmental considerations.
Materials and Methods
This study uses positive mathematical programming (PMP) to study the environmental impact of chemical fertilizers’ subsidies change and transfer subsidies to crops in Zarandieh city of Markazi province. The necessary information was collected through the statistical sources of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad for the crop year 2023 for the three crops including irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, and silage corn, which occupies more than 85 percent of the cultivated area of this region. In the first stage, the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by each product was calculated, and then the environmental impact of different subsidy policies was investigated. To calculate the greenhouse gas emissions, the emission coefficient of each of the inputs that have been cited in various studies was used. To model and analyze the data, positive mathematical programming with the cost function approach was used. Excel and GAMS software has been used to run the models.
Results and Discussion
The results of the study showed that the highest amount of greenhouse gas emissions is related to corn silage, and electricity, diesel, and chemical fertilizers have the largest share of the greenhouse gas emissions. The results of the simulation of the cultivation pattern of the region in the case where only chemical fertilizers include N-fertiliser, P-fertiliser, and K-fertiliser separately and together have an increase by 25, 50, 75, and 100 percent showed that with the increase in the input price, the cultivated area and the income of farmers in the region decreases. Also, increasing the price of P-fertilizer can reduce environmental impact more than increasing the price of another chemical fertilizer. To investigate the environmental impact of reallocating subsidies to products instead of chemical inputs, a situation was simulated in which the price of chemical inputs increased by 100 percent and the price of the product increased by 5 and 10 percent, respectively, and the results of the model showed that the lowest environmental impact of crop production per hectare occurs when the price of chemical fertilizers increases by 100% and the price of the product increases by 5%. According to the results of the study, it seems that allocating subsidies to products instead of production inputs can have more favorable environmental consequences. In other words, when the subsidy is allocated to the product instead of chemical inputs, the environmental impact of crop production in this area would be reduced and the amount of emissions per hectare of farm or million Tomans of gross profit would be less compared to other situations.
Conclusion
It is necessary to support the agricultural sector to boost food production but these supports should be done with the least environmental impact. According to the findings of this study, if subsidies are given to agricultural products instead of inputs, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced while maintaining the area of crops and the amount of gross profit of farmers. The policy of setting a guaranteed price for basic agricultural products in Iran can be a suitable tool to realize this. In other words, transferring the credits allocated for purchasing chemical fertilizers to the guaranteed purchase of agricultural products will be an effective step in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and their impact, as well as maintaining the country's food security.
Research Article
A.R. Sani Heidary; E. Safari
Abstract
Introduction
In the continuity of human life, agriculture as a strategic activity plays a key role in providing food. In addition, the agricultural sector plays an important role in economic development, social welfare and environmental sustainability of all countries. However, this sector is facing ...
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Introduction
In the continuity of human life, agriculture as a strategic activity plays a key role in providing food. In addition, the agricultural sector plays an important role in economic development, social welfare and environmental sustainability of all countries. However, this sector is facing many challenges in recent years. Some of its most important challenges include the increasing growth of the world's population, a 40% reduction in water and soil resources, the destruction of a quarter of agricultural land, climate change, a lack of specialized labor, poor access to financial resources, strict laws, and a decrease in the number of farmers due to a decrease in motivation. Therefore, in order to meet the growing demand for food and overcome its challenges, the agricultural sector is forced to look for new solutions such as adopting digital transformation enhanced by artificial intelligence technology. The use of artificial intelligence technology has recently become evident in the agricultural sector. Solutions based on it help farmers to produce more with less resources; Secondly, to produce quality and healthy products and finally to market their products in a shorter time. Therefore, considering the importance of using artificial intelligence technology in the comprehensive improvement of the agricultural sector, this research seeks to answer the question, what predictors play an imporetant role in the behavioral intention and behavior of using artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural companies?
Materials and Methods
The main objective of this research is to determine the key predictors of behavioral intention and behavior of using artificial intelligence technology in agricultural companies through the combination of the developed UTAUT2 model and TOE factors. The statistical population of this research is the total employees of nine cultivation and industry of Razavi Agricultural Company, which are about 465 people. Data were collected by completing multidimensional questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews from households in 2023. In total, 250 questionnaires were completed. Data of 39 respondents were excluded due to missing values. The questionnaire is designed based on the seven-point Likert scale (strongly disagree = 1, strongly agree = 7). The questionnaire used in this research includes 14 constructs in the form of 60 items. Excel 2019 software was used to analyze the raw data of the questionnaire and SmartPLS software was used to test the research hypotheses. In order to guarantee the stability of the data, a complete bootstrap method with 5000 sub-samples was performed.
Results and Discussion
The results revealed that the values of Cronbach's alpha and CR for all constructs were higher than 0.7, which shows acceptable internal consistency of the model and adequate reliability of the research constructs. AVE scores and factor loading values for all constructs are above 0.5, which indicates the correct definition of constructs and high convergence between constructs and its items. The values of rho_A as an important reliability measure for PLS-SEM for all constructs are greater than the acceptable value of 0.7. The results of the Fornell-Larcker criteria and the Heterotrait-Monotrait ratio (HTMT) indicate that the model is confirmed in terms of the constructs' discriminative validity. In addition, the research model was able to explain 89.4 and 51.7 percent of the variance of the variables of behavioral intention and the behavior of people to use artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural sector. According to the results, all research hypotheses are confirmed and the behavioral intention to adopt artificial intelligence technology is positively and significantly influenced by expected performance, social effects, hope for effort, facilitating conditions, pleasure-seeking motivation, price-value, habit, trust in technology, technological aspects, organizational aspects, and environmental aspects. However, the fear of technology variable has a negative and significant impact on people's behavioral intention.
Conclusion
This study highlights the determining role of expected performance constructs, social influences, fear of technology, and organizational and environmental aspects compared to other constructs in predicting people's behavioral intention to adopt artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural sector and provides important information for different stakeholders. According to the results, it is suggested that the government should invest in the development of the necessary infrastructure for this technology and provide a platform for its development by establishing efficient laws and paying low-interest facilities. In addition, Designers should create user-friendly tools tailored to the agricultural conditions of the country.
Research Article-en
F. Vajdi Hokmabad; H. Rafiee; A.H. Chizari; S. Yazdani; S.S. Hosseini
Abstract
IntroductionToday, maintaining and strengthening customer loyalty in line with a company's products or services is generally the main and central point of marketing activities. Ethical marketing is one of the things that can affect the improvement of customer loyalty to the brand/product. Ethical marketing ...
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IntroductionToday, maintaining and strengthening customer loyalty in line with a company's products or services is generally the main and central point of marketing activities. Ethical marketing is one of the things that can affect the improvement of customer loyalty to the brand/product. Ethical marketing is a field of applied ethics that deals with ethical principles hidden in marketing behavior, promotion and regulation. Ethical consumerism has become important in the last two decades due to these social and environmental issues.Materials and MethodsA CLV-based segmentation model allows a company to identify the most profitable group of customers, understand the common characteristics of those customers, and focus more on them. One of the approaches of the CLV model is the RFM analysis model, which is one of the most powerful customer lifetime value models for customer loyalty. By using customer loyalty, it groups customers and shows their level of loyalty. In order to make RFM model more practical and improve, weights are used for model variables and these weights are determined by AHP method and Expert Choice software. Considering that grouping based on products is one of the objectives of the present study, the model used in this study to calculate the lifetime value of the customer is the Group WRFM model. To achieve the goal, 710 questionnaires were completed in Tehran and the GWRFM method was used by extracting the information needed to calculate the customer's life cycle. For this purpose, first the products were grouped and then the customer's transactions were considered separately in relation to each group of products, and GWRFM values were calculated for each group of products purchased. Finally, to measure the impact of each of the ethical components on the loyalty variable, which is a multi-level variable, the multiple logit method can be used.Result and DiscussionAccording to the results of completing 710 questionnaires from the consumers of dairy products in Tehran, after standardizing the results related to the parameters of the RFM model and based on the value of the statistician, the customers were divided into 5 clusters. Using the AHP method and the opinions of experts in this field, the weights of the parameters were calculated, and the calculations indicate that the amount of money paid for each purchase is more important than other parameters. Customer lifetime value was calculated with customer information and weights calculated from the WRFM model, and the clusters were ranked based on the calculated CLV score. The highest frequency percentage belongs to clusters with low customer life cycle value for milk product, very low customer life cycle value for yogurt product and medium customer life cycle value for cheese product.In the next step, multiple logit was used to measure the impact of ethical components on CLV value and customer rating. The results for each of the components are described below. In order to investigate the component of brand adherence to the rules of its field of activity, this component was not significant for all the studied products (milk, cheese, yogurt and ayran) in all clusters, but according to the results, it is significant in the clusters with lifetime value. Customers have a positive and significant effect and increase the probability of being placed in these clusters compared to the base cluster, and vice versa, they have a negative and significant effect in clusters with low lifetime value, and according to the RRR statistic, the probability ratio of being placed in these clusters reduces By examining the component of respect for ethical norms by the brand, this component was not significant for all products in all clusters, but unlike the previous component, it had a positive and significant effect in clusters with low customer lifetime value and increased the probability for this cluster. is On the other hand, for clusters with high customer lifetime value, it has a negative effect and reduces the probability of being placed in this cluster compared to the base group. People who are in the lower categories of customer lifetime value give importance to this component, and this importance may after some time cause them to be placed in the higher category of customer lifetime value. By discussing and examining the social responsibility brand component, this component, like the rule compliance component, has a positive and significant effect in the valuable clusters of the customer's life cycle and increases the probability of being placed in these clusters compared to the base cluster and vice versa. In clusters with low lifetime value, they have a negative and significant effect, and according to the RRR statistic, it reduces the probability of being placed in these clusters.ConclusionFor ayran product, in the order of severity of impact, compliance with the rules of the field of activity and acceptance of collective responsibility, causes placement in a cluster with higher customer lifetime value, but the importance of respecting ethical norms causes placement in clusters with lower value. Regarding the clustering of cheese product customers, this influence is related to the acceptance of social responsibility, respect for norms and adherence to the rules of the field of activity. The intensity of respect for moral norms leads to placement in lower clusters. For our yogurt product, the intensity of influence is related to compliance with the rules of the field of activity, respect for ethical norms and acceptance of collective responsibility, and like other products, the component of respect for ethical norms causes it to be placed in a cluster with a lower customer lifetime value. Finally, by examining the components for the milk product, the effect of the ethical components is not the same as for other dairy products, and the importance of complying with the rules of the field of activity has caused it to be placed in clusters with lower value, and acceptance of social responsibility has caused it to be placed in clusters with higher lifetime value. Dairy industry activists can move them to higher clusters and include them among their loyal customers by assuring customers of adhering to the rules of the industry and also accepting social responsibility. If positive measures are taken in the field of respect for ethical norms, it will affect a significant part of the consumers of cheese, yogurt and ayran products, and cause them to react positively to the industry and these products, and because of that move towards being among valuable customers. This is the industry. Because most of the customers of these products are in clusters with lower lifetime value.According to the results, it can be said that customers who are considered as loyal customers for dairy products and have a high customer lifetime value, attach importance to accepting social responsibility and adhering to the rules of the dairy products field as ethical components. In today's competitive world, factors affecting the decisions of consumers should be addressed in order to turn consumers into regular customers for their products and brands. One of the things that should be addressed is the ethical components, because in recent years, this category has strongly influenced people's purchasing and consumption decisions, and as a result, this issue should be addressed and necessary measures should be taken in this field.
Research Article-en
S. Sadafi Abkenar; A.H. Chizari; H. Rafiee; H. Salami
Abstract
IntroductionThe Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) aims to become a regional reference for pricing essential commodities and raw materials, providing a primary option for producers seeking financing and risk management. The core function of the exchange is to hedge against price volatility. Financial market ...
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IntroductionThe Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) aims to become a regional reference for pricing essential commodities and raw materials, providing a primary option for producers seeking financing and risk management. The core function of the exchange is to hedge against price volatility. Financial market traders engage in hedging for risk management or speculation, which can introduce risks to exchange activities. If an investor fails to fulfill their obligations under certain conditions, the exchange assumes those obligations. Exchanges not only provide a platform for risk management but also implement various policies and methods to control risks arising from market participants' activities. Essentially, market participants seek to protect their interests against adverse future price changes. Hedging allows a production unit to control the costs of raw materials needed for production, enabling better product pricing management. The need for hedging arises when a producer has no control over the prices of raw materials or finished products. The ability to decide on the level of risk to accept or transfer through commodity exchanges is known as hedging capability.Hedging operations differ from speculation, where the primary goal is to profit from risk management. In the Iran Commodity Exchange, hedging operations by agricultural product traders through a designed trading portfolio have not been widely promoted or considered. Hedging is an investment strategy aimed at reducing the risk of adverse price changes in an asset, typically involving taking a compensatory or opposite position relative to the guaranteed position. Conventional hedging techniques include taking a compensatory position in derivative contracts related to the current position. Another form of hedging can occur through diversification. Hedging is also an automatic insurance policy, where a risk-reward trade-off is achieved by reducing potential risk at the cost of potential benefits. In other words, hedging is costly, and a complete hedge eliminates all risks in a position or investment portfolio.Generally, domestic studies indicate that price volatility of agricultural commodities in the Iran Commodity Exchange is higher than in the free market and the Chicago Commodity Exchange. Most domestic studies have used weekly and monthly time series and have often ignored the seasonal behavior of agricultural products in unit root tests. The time series models used in domestic studies include ARIMA, VAR, VECM, and ARCH/GARCH models. It is noteworthy that none of the domestic studies have attempted to design a comprehensive model for constructing an optimal agricultural product investment portfolio.Foreign studies use more advanced methods and claim these methods are superior. Some foreign researchers suggest including agricultural products along with other products in the investment portfolio. According to foreign researchers, equation systems are superior for determining investment portfolios due to the calculation of moving covariances over single equations, although they are more complex in practice. Therefore, single equations are still prevalent.This paper examines the hedging of hazelnut pistachios with two futures and deposit investment contracts using a daily model from October 19, 2018, to January 18, 2022. Pistachios are one of the two main agricultural products traded on the Iran Commodity Exchange, but the trading value of this product has decreased from approximately 865 billion rials to about 19 billion rials in recent years. This study aims to examine the risk changes of this product and answer how the optimal portfolio selection between the two contracts has changed over the study period.Materials and MethodsThis work outlines methods and strategies for determining an optimal portfolio to hedge the risk of hazelnut pistachios in the Iranian Commodity Exchange. It primarily uses Markowitz's Portfolio Theory, which balances risk and return. The goal is to minimize risk for a given level of expected return or maximize return for a given level of risk.The hedging ratio is calculated as the ratio of futures contracts to cash positions, using methods like Minimum Variance (MV) and Mean-Variance. GARCH models, including bivariate GARCH and BEKK-GARCH, are employed to model and analyze the volatility and dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The HEGY method tests for seasonal unit roots in time series data, crucial for accurate modeling. Multivariate GARCH models capture the interaction between volatilities of different assets, essential for calculating the optimal hedge ratio. Threshold GARCH (TARCH) models account for the asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks on volatility, important for financial markets where negative returns often have a larger impact on volatility than positive returns.The study aims to minimize price risk by using these advanced econometric models to find the optimal combination of futures and spot positions in a commodity portfolio.Results and DiscussionThe seasonal unit root test for daily data of hazelnut pistachio contracts using the HEGY method examines the presence of unit roots at seasonal and non-seasonal frequencies. The results indicate significant seasonal and non-seasonal fluctuations, with stronger seasonal effects. Regression analysis reveals significant relationships between the returns of commodity deposit contracts and futures contracts, highlighting the impacts of past returns and shocks on current returns. The optimal ratio of hazelnut pistachio deposit contracts in combination with futures contracts varies across different days and seasons, reflecting market demand and investor preferences.ConclusionBased on the results, several policy recommendations for the hazelnut pistachio market can be made:1. Strengthen and Manage Seasonal Fluctuations: Policymakers and market participants should analyze seasonal fluctuations more closely and plan to counteract unusual seasonal fluctuations. This could include introducing financial derivatives like options or futures contracts to help manage volatility risks.2. Support Risk Hedging Tools: Developing and promoting risk hedging tools, such as futures contracts and other derivatives, can help investors better manage risks from volatility, especially during periods of high market volatility.3. Consider Seasonal and Daily Patterns in Portfolio Composition: Policymakers and investors should adjust their investment portfolios based on a detailed analysis of seasonal and daily changes to reduce risk and increase returns.4. Monitor and Control Volatility During Critical Periods: Given higher demand and volatility in certain months like February and December, it is recommended to closely monitor the market during these periods to prevent abnormal fluctuations. Using price control tools or trading restrictions can help stabilize the market.5. Develop Supportive Policies in Low-Volatility Months: In months with lower volatility (like July and August), supportive policies such as providing facilities or financial incentives can help maintain market activity and prevent a drop in demand, maintaining stability and reducing risk during low-volatility periods.These recommendations can help improve the performance of the hazelnut pistachio market and increase efficiency in investment decision-making.
Research Article
Z. Zareidastgerdi; Kh. Kalantari; A. Asadi
Abstract
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Introduction
The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role ...
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Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Introduction
The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role in promoting national development And rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector is one of the main concerns of the relevant institutional activists. On the one hand, the complexity of human changes and variables and the unexpectedness of environmental factors and the global economy affecting agricultural activities on the one hand and the strategic importance of food security and combating poverty on the other hand, have made the sustainable development of agriculture face deep and widespread challenges. Therefore, it is necessary that the strategies developed to deal with these issues are based on comprehensive and optimal analyzes that examine the main dimensions of the agriculture and food sector in an integrated manner. Considering the ever-increasing changes and transformations, relying on traditional planning methods is no longer the answer, and the heavy shadow of uncertainties and the emergence of discontinuous and surprising events changes the situation in such a way that planning seems to be a difficult matter. The lack of ability to predict the future as well as the complications caused by the changes have caused the emerging knowledge of foresight to enter the activities of planning and predicting developments.
Materials and Methods
In terms of its nature, the present research was an applied research, and in terms of the method, it was a descriptive-survey type. The statistical population of this research was: 1- Managers and entrepreneurs of the agricultural sector in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province; 2- Academic researchers and professors active in the agricultural sector in the catchment area of Zayandeh River in Isfahan province; 3- Policymakers and managers active in the process of policymaking and planning of agricultural development in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province which were selected as snowball sampling. In order to collect data, in addition to using library resources, researcher-made questionnaires and interviews were used. For the scenario planning section of sustainable agricultural development, a matrix with dimensions of 8x8 was used and provided to the experts of the agricultural sector using the results of interviews with experts and Delphi questionnaire.
Results and Discussion
According to the effect of one factor on other related factors, 5 plausible scenarios were identified by considering possible situations resulting from key factors and their commonalities or differences in the categories of favorable, static and critical scenarios. Scenario number 5 is a favorable scenario. In this scenario, all states of agents are favorable. In total, these scenarios have 8 favorable situations. Scenario number 4 is a static scenario. In this scenario, there are 5 static states, 3 unfavorable states. Scenarios number 1 to 3 are critical scenarios. From the total of 24 situations in these scenarios; 17 critical situations 7 situations have a static situation and maintain the status quo. Among the 5 believable scenarios and software outputs and according to their total impact score, which are between 85 and 109; 2 scenarios are the most likely scenarios. These scenarios have a total effect score of 87 to 109, of which 1 is favorable and 1 is critical.
Conclusion
Since sustainable production is the most important task in the field of agriculture, therefore, in sustainable production, the agricultural products needed by the society should be produced to the extent that the relative advantage of each province allows. And the biggest obstacle in this path is the water problem. Considering that agriculture is exposed to many problems such as climate change, agricultural products market, political decisions, It is necessary to formulate a strategic plan in this field so that some of these variables remain constant and based on other variables, production can be continued better. Therefore, farming in controlled environments such as greenhouses is one of the ways to control the factors involved in agriculture, which can control water consumption and other factors and increase the amount of production.
Keywords: foresight, scenario planning, agricultural development, Zayandeh Rood watershed
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Research Article
S.M. Seyedan; M. Motaghed
Abstract
Introduction
Effective measures in the field of grape production and processing are necessary to be aware of the market's needs. While using the acquired knowledge, the products should be well-matched to the market's demand, which requires the understanding and application of the value chain. ...
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Introduction
Effective measures in the field of grape production and processing are necessary to be aware of the market's needs. While using the acquired knowledge, the products should be well-matched to the market's demand, which requires the understanding and application of the value chain. The value chain is a network of actors who are involved in the supply, production, processing, marketing, and consumption of a product or service, and its actors seek to realize added value in each of the links of the chain and add value as a whole. It is for the activities that take place along the chain. An efficient value chain plays a key role in reducing poverty and food security in the country and has inherent potential for the development of job opportunities. The benefits of the value chain include reducing production costs, increasing productivity, providing valuable services to farmers, a variety of new services with added value, innovation at a faster speed, creating new circles, creating more jobs, reducing rural poverty, transparency in the price of agricultural products, balance of supply and demand, improvement of quality and health of agricultural products, reduction of product waste, increase of product health quality, increase of real profit, consumer satisfaction, reduction of mediation and brokerage, increase of flexibility power and sustainability in production and export.
Materials and methods
In this research, using a questionnaire, the desired information was collected from each of the agents (links of the chain). There are various methods to analyze the situation of the value chain, the most important of which is the SWOT analysis method (identification of strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities, as well as determining the strategic position), which was used in this research, and it will be briefly explained to the process of analyzing the SWOT matrix. Since the SWOT analytical matrix offers various strategies but does not provide a technique for priorities, the QSPM matrix was used. This matrix is used in the last stage of strategy development and for selecting and prioritizing strategies. This matrix prioritizes different strategy options according to their attractiveness score.
Results and discussion
In the present study; 74 components in the template (15 strengths, 23 weaknesses, 19 threats and 17 opportunities) were extracted and categorized. To evaluate the internal factors of the grape value chain with an emphasis on its yield, the internal factors evaluation matrix (IFE) was used. In this matrix, the strengths and weaknesses were listed and scored using special coefficients and ranks to determine the final score of the evaluation of internal factors. From the analysis of internal factors, it was found that the set of final points is equal to 61.2. Therefore, it can be said that the value chain of grapes in Hamedan province is in a strong state. In other words, the internal strengths are more than the weaknesses that are listed for it. From the analysis of external factors, it was found that the set of weighted points is equal to 2.87. Therefore, the grape value chain in Hamedan has an external opportunity. In other words, the opportunities of the grape value chain are more than its threats.
Conclusion and suggestions
To improve this situation, the raisin value chain model was designed based on observations and research findings. This model is an executive model that has five main actors including 1- Input supply link (without timely supply of inputs and without creating a basis for the development of a competitive environment in this link, one cannot hope for sustainable production and export), 2- The link of grape growers is 3- the circle of packaging and processing factories, 4- the circle of distribution and marketing, and 5- the circle of consumption and communication with customers. This model also has a support link (providing consulting, training, and support services to investors to help create and launch new businesses within the chain) that supports all the links in terms of structure, design, research, training, financial management, and resource management. Humanity supports. These measures attract investment, create employment, develop chain links and growth, and help to achieve the goals of economic and social development of the region. The most important missing link in the grape product is the production and processing of this product with a special brand. These circles should be established to attract foreign markets, since the grapes of Hamedan province have a good quality and have the potential that the products can compete with the products of other countries, it is necessary to turn this potential into reality. which is the foundation of creating processed products based on the highest quality and stealing the market from competitors in this field.
Research Article-en
M. Haji Rahimi; P. Alizadeh; F. Sharifi
Abstract
IntroductionThe broiler industry holds a prominent position in Iran’s agricultural landscape, particularly within Kurdistan Province. As a key contributor to the national economy, this sector has drawn significant attention from policymakers aiming to bolster productivity, ensure food security, ...
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IntroductionThe broiler industry holds a prominent position in Iran’s agricultural landscape, particularly within Kurdistan Province. As a key contributor to the national economy, this sector has drawn significant attention from policymakers aiming to bolster productivity, ensure food security, and enhance competitiveness. In response, the Iranian government has instituted a variety of policy measures to support broiler production. These policies include subsidies for poultry feed and other essential inputs, as well as a guaranteed purchase system for chicken meat to stabilize market prices. Collectively, these interventions have contributed to an increase in domestic production and have aimed to protect both producers and consumers against volatile market conditions. However, the sector’s reliance on imported inputs, coupled with government interventions and a multi-rate currency system, has created complexities in determining true production costs and market prices. This lack of transparency in price structures hampers accurate technical and economic evaluations, ultimately impacting the industry's efficiency and sustainability. Against this backdrop, the present study seeks to analyze the relative advantage of broiler chicken production in Kurdistan Province and evaluate the impact of government support on the sector. Materials and MethodsThe Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) is a valuable tool for assessing the economic and social impacts of policy interventions on agricultural production. Developed to examine the influence of governmental policies on various production parameters, PAM is widely used in agriculture to evaluate the comparative advantage of producing specific commodities. This method provides policymakers and researchers with a systematic approach to determine both market profitability (the net return based on prevailing market prices) and social profitability (the net return when externalities and social values are considered). By differentiating between these two-profitability metrics, PAM offers insights into the effectiveness of government interventions, thereby assisting in the development of optimal production models aimed at reducing costs and increasing efficiency. In the case of broiler production in Kurdistan Province, the PAM framework allows for a detailed analysis of production costs, input subsidies, and market prices. Using a two-dimensional accounting approach, the matrix calculates the Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) ratio, Social Benefit-Cost Ratio (SBCR), Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC), and Effective Protection Coefficient (EPC). The DRC ratio provides an indication of the local industry’s comparative advantage by comparing domestic production costs against import costs. The SBCR, on the other hand, evaluates the overall benefit of production relative to its cost, taking into account both economic and social factors. NPCs are calculated for both poultry inputs and final broiler products to measure the degree of government intervention in the pricing system, while the EPC aggregates the net effect of these policies on overall profitability. Collectively, these indicators facilitate a comprehensive analysis of the broiler sector’s performance, offering data-driven insights to guide future policy adjustments.Results and DiscussionThe analysis of Kurdistan’s broiler industry using the PAM method reveals several noteworthy trends and indicators that underscore the sector’s relative advantage and efficiency. First, the DRC ratio for broiler production in Kurdistan indicates a comparative advantage across all scales of production, from small-scale farms to larger, commercial enterprises. This metric confirms that the cost of locally producing broiler chicken is lower than the cost of importing it, establishing a clear economic benefit to regional production. Furthermore, the favorable DRC ratios suggest that Kurdistan Province is well-positioned to produce chicken meat more competitively than relying on imports, which may contribute to the local economy and reduce dependency on international markets. The Social Benefit-Cost Ratio (SBCR) corroborates the findings of the DRC analysis, highlighting positive returns on broiler production when considering broader social impacts. The SBCR, which factors in both direct and indirect economic benefits, further underscores the potential of broiler farming as a sustainable and economically viable industry for Kurdistan Province. Additionally, these findings suggest that the local broiler industry could contribute significantly to rural development, job creation, and poverty alleviation within the province. Another critical indicator, the Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC), was calculated separately for live broiler chickens and poultry inputs. The NPC for live broilers reveals that domestic market prices are lower than global prices, indicating a form of price suppression. This suppression may result from government efforts to stabilize local markets and protect consumers from price volatility. On the other hand, the NPC for poultry inputs is notably higher, reflecting significant government subsidies aimed at reducing input costs. These subsidies make feed and other essential inputs more affordable for producers, thereby promoting local production and enhancing the sector’s competitiveness. While these interventions have been beneficial in the short term, the distortions they create could hinder long-term competitiveness by masking true market costs. The Effective Protection Coefficient (EPC), which aggregates the overall impact of government policies, further confirms the substantial support for broiler production in Kurdistan Province. The EPC suggests that government policies have created a favorable environment for broiler producers by reducing costs and stabilizing market prices. This level of support enhances the sector’s competitiveness within the domestic market and positions it well for potential export opportunities. Notably, export competitiveness indicators for Kurdistan’s broiler industry also suggest promising potential. With an export competitiveness score of less than one, the analysis indicates that local production is economically more efficient than import alternatives. This metric highlights the opportunity for Kurdistan’s broiler sector to penetrate international markets, thereby diversifying revenue streams and reducing the risk associated with a purely domestic focus. The findings of this study underscore the need for policy adjustments that enhance transparency and sustainability within the broiler industry. While government support has been instrumental in bolstering production and stabilizing prices, certain aspects of these interventions warrant reevaluation to foster long-term growth and competitiveness. One recommended policy reform is the adoption of a price band approach, which involves setting upper and lower price limits instead of fixing a single price. This approach would allow market forces to operate within a defined range, thereby enabling producers to respond to supply and demand fluctuations without experiencing extreme volatility. Furthermore, a gradual phase-out of subsidies is advised to encourage cost alignment with true market values. By reducing dependency on subsidies, producers will be incentivized to adopt more efficient production practices, which could lead to lower production costs over time. ConclusionThe broiler industry in Kurdistan Province holds a significant comparative advantage and exhibits robust competitiveness within Iran’s agricultural sector. Government interventions, while beneficial in stabilizing production, have also introduced certain market distortions that limit the sector's ability to adapt to market dynamics. This study’s findings, derived from the PAM method, provide a clear indication of the economic viability of broiler production in Kurdistan and highlight the need for policy reforms to improve market transparency and efficiency. By adopting a more flexible price management system, gradually reducing subsidies, and encouraging technological advancement, the government can facilitate a more sustainable and competitive broiler industry, capable of meeting both domestic demand and potentially expanding into export markets. Through these reforms, Kurdistan’s broiler sector could contribute more significantly to the region’s economic growth, food security, and rural development.AcknowledgementThe authors would like to extend their appreciation to the Organization of Agricultural Jihad of Kurdistan Province for their invaluable support in conducting this research.Keywords: Broiler Chicken, Comparative advantage, export competitiveness, policy analysis matrix
Research Article-en
M. Ghasabi; M. Haji Rahimi; H. Ghaderzadeh; R. Shankayi
Abstract
IntroductionAgriculture has always involved various degrees of risk, with farmers contending with numerous potential threats that can disrupt their livelihoods and productivity. These risks are compounded by agriculture's high dependency on climatic conditions, rendering it particularly vulnerable to ...
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IntroductionAgriculture has always involved various degrees of risk, with farmers contending with numerous potential threats that can disrupt their livelihoods and productivity. These risks are compounded by agriculture's high dependency on climatic conditions, rendering it particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Shifting weather patterns, extreme temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall can drastically affect crop yields, posing a serious threat to both farmers’ income and food security. Additionally, the agricultural sector faces ongoing challenges from pests, diseases, and fluctuations in market prices, further destabilizing the livelihoods of farmers who rely on steady production for economic sustainability.Beyond environmental factors, agricultural activities are influenced by a host of political, social, and economic risks. Environmental challenges, production limitations, legal constraints, financial hardships, and marketing uncertainties all represent significant risk categories that can impact farming operations. Natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and storms, often lead to reduced productivity, directly diminishing farmers’ incomes. Furthermore, health and well-being concerns for farmers add another layer of risk, as labor-intensive farming activities require both physical resilience and long-term health, which can be compromised by lack of access to medical services and health risks associated with exposure to pesticides and other chemicals. As the global population grows, demand for food continues to rise, but the essential resources needed for agriculture, such as arable land and water, are finite. This increasing demand coupled with limited resources has placed substantial pressure on farmers, who must navigate these compounding risks while striving to meet production needs. These challenges underscore the need for effective risk management tools that can support farmers in making informed decisions regarding crop selection, resource allocation, and overall farm management strategies. One of the most versatile risk management tools available is the cropping pattern, or the arrangement of crops within a given agricultural area over a specific time period. Determining an optimal cropping pattern that takes risk factors into account is crucial for enhancing profitability and resilience in farming. Therefore, this study aims to determine the optimal cropping pattern for farms in the Dehgolan Plain, located in Kurdistan Province, under both risk-free and risk-sensitive conditions. By focusing on maximizing farmers' gross income while accounting for factors such as water availability and market conditions, this research seeks to provide practical recommendations for sustainable agricultural practices.Materials and MethodsThis study examines the cropping patterns of major crops cultivated in the Dehgolan Plain, Kurdistan Province, using data spanning the agricultural years from 2014 to 2023. To establish an optimal cropping pattern, the analysis considers various production constraints and resource limitations specific to this region. The goal is to develop a cropping model that maximizes gross income for farmers under both risk and no-risk scenarios. Several mathematical programming techniques were employed to achieve this objective. The Linear Programming (LP) model, widely used in agricultural studies for determining optimal cropping patterns under conditions of certainty, served as the foundation for this analysis. The LP model optimizes crop selection to maximize gross income while adhering to constraints such as water availability, land area, and resource limitations specific to the Dehgolan Plain. In addition to the LP model, nonlinear programming approaches, specifically Quadratic Programming and the Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation (MOTAD) model, were implemented to assess the cropping pattern under conditions of risk. These models allow for the incorporation of income volatility and risk into decision-making, helping to capture the trade-offs between risk and income potential. The Quadratic Programming model, which can handle non-linear relationships, is suitable for cases where increasing returns or diminishing marginal gains are present. Meanwhile, the MOTAD model assists in achieving minimum income variability, thus offering farmers a more stable income flow in unpredictable economic and climatic conditions.Results and DiscussionThe analysis revealed notable differences in the cropping patterns under risk and no-risk scenarios. Under no-risk conditions, as optimized by the Linear Programming model, the cropping pattern favored crops with higher gross incomes per hectare. This led to a significant reduction in the cultivation of wheat, barley, and potatoes, as these crops did not yield the highest economic returns. However, despite their relatively low profitability, wheat and barley remain essential for their lower water requirements and the security provided by government-guaranteed purchase programs. As a result, farmers may be reluctant to reduce the acreage of these crops due to their inherent risk-mitigation benefits. In the risk-sensitive scenario, modeled through Quadratic Programming and MOTAD, a positive correlation was found between risk levels and gross income. As farmers sought to maximize their income, the cropping pattern initially reflected a concentration of higher-income crops. However, as income maximization goals became tempered by risk considerations, crop diversity increased, indicating a clear trend toward diversification as a viable risk management strategy. This finding aligns with previous studies that emphasize crop diversification as a way to stabilize income and mitigate yield risks in agricultural systems prone to volatility. The MOTAD model, in particular, highlighted the trade-offs between risk and expected income. For example, a modest income increase of approximately 0.59% (from 1,700,000 million tomans to 1,710,000 million tomans) resulted in a substantial increase in risk, with the standard deviation, a measure of income variability, rising by 17.65%. This illustrates that achieving marginal income gains in agriculture often comes at a steep cost in terms of heightened risk. Furthermore, the cropping pattern varied significantly at different risk levels. At the highest risk threshold, which yielded an expected income of 1,780,133 million tomans, the cropping pattern included high-value crops such as cucumber, alfalfa, and canola, while reducing lower-value crops. Conversely, as the income expectation decreased and risk levels were minimized to 1,060,285 million tomans, these higher-income crops were scaled back, favoring more stable, government-backed crops like wheat, barley, and potatoes. This shift suggests that farmers, when presented with risk-reducing incentives, may gravitate toward crops with guaranteed purchase agreements and lower input costs, prioritizing stability over potential profit. Both risk models underscore the importance of balancing income maximization with risk minimization, as farmers seek to secure stable returns in an environment where crop failures or price declines could have significant impacts on household livelihoods.ConclusionRisk is an inevitable aspect of agriculture, and the findings of this study suggest that risk-sensitive models, such as MOTAD, enhance cropping pattern decision-making by incorporating income variability. The results demonstrate that under high-risk scenarios, increasing the cultivation area of crops like wheat aligns with government policies aimed at food security, as these crops provide a stable, government-supported income stream. This study also recommends adopting multi-cropping systems and crop rotation as effective strategies for reducing income variability and enhancing resilience. By diversifying cropping patterns, farmers can manage risk more effectively and contribute to the long-term sustainability of agricultural systems in regions like the Dehgolan Plain, where climate, market, and resource limitations impose unique challenges. Future studies could build upon these findings by examining the impact of additional risk factors, such as climate projections and market trends, to further refine optimal cropping strategies for vulnerable agricultural regions.
Research Article
R. Heydari; E. Javdan; M. Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody
Abstract
Introduction
Food prices are an important indicator of societal well-being, and food inflation can deepen poverty in developing economies. Severe food price fluctuations not only affect food security in developing countries, but also affect economic growth and social stability. Any increase in food prices ...
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Introduction
Food prices are an important indicator of societal well-being, and food inflation can deepen poverty in developing economies. Severe food price fluctuations not only affect food security in developing countries, but also affect economic growth and social stability. Any increase in food prices can push many people back below the poverty line. Rising food prices hit low-income households hard, as the household food basket accounts for nearly half of household living expenses. Therefore, food price stability is of particular importance to policymakers trying to lift households above the poverty line. Food prices in Iran have always been on the rise, and even in recent years, the rate of food price growth has accelerated. Today, inflation, especially food inflation, remains a major problem in Iran, and policymakers are always trying to reduce food inflation. In this regard, and with the aim of controlling food prices, different policies have been implemented in Iran, and the effectiveness of these policies has been discussed. Therefore, understanding the behavior of food prices in response to macroeconomic factors is essential for policymakers to implement appropriate policies at the right time and place to keep domestic prices stable. In this regard, in the present study, the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables (money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and trade openness) affecting food inflation in Iran is examined using the nonlinear ARDL approach.
Materials and Methods
The main objective of this study is to examine the asymmetric effect of domestic macroeconomic factors on food prices in Iran using a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. According to the theoretical literature, in this study, it is assumed that food prices are a function of macroeconomic variables, including money supply (MS), GDP per capita (GDPER), exchange rate (RATE), trade openness (OPEN), and global economic policy uncertainty index (EPU). Therefore, in accordance with Shin et al. (2014), the NARDL model used in this study is developed to examine the asymmetric effect of domestic macroeconomic factors.
In this relationship, each of the macroeconomic factors (including the money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and trade openness) is separated into the sum of positive and negative components. In fact, two additional variables are created in each equation, one indicating an increase in the variable of interest with a positive sign and the other indicating a decrease with a negative sign. The variable of global economic policy uncertainty index also plays the role of a control variable. Due to the availability of data, the time period in this study is 1991 to 2022.
Results and Discussion
The results of the linear and nonlinear bounds test in the ARDL model showed that there is a long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables including money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, trade openness, global economic policy uncertainty and food prices in Iran. In addition, the results of short-term and long-term symmetry tests using the Wald test showed that the effect of the exchange rate variable on food inflation in Iran is asymmetric in the long and short run, while the effect of the money supply and GDP per capita variables is asymmetric only in the long run; the effect of the trade openness variable is also symmetric in the short and long run and has a linear behavior. The results of the ARDL linear model estimation showed that in the short and long run, the effect of the growth of the variables of money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate and global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran is positive and significant, while the effect of trade openness is negative and significant. The results of the NARDL model estimation also showed that the response of food inflation to increases and decreases in money supply and GDP growth is positive and significant, and their increase on food inflation is greater than the effect of their decrease. The response of food inflation in the long and short term to increases in the exchange rate is positive and significant, while the effect of decreasing the exchange rate in the long and short term is negative, but not statistically significant, and the effect of increasing the exchange rate on food inflation in the long term is greater than its effect in the short term. The effect of the variable of trade openness on food inflation is symmetric, and its increase causes a decrease in food inflation in the long and short term.
Conclusions
Linking the prices of agricultural products to market conditions and liberalizing the market for these products is an appropriate method for coordinating the effects of macro policies and specific agricultural policies that should be considered by policymakers. Given the importance of the agricultural sector, the government's economic policies in relation to food prices will be of high importance and sensitivity. Considering the results of implementing contractionary monetary policies in coordination with other Central Bank policies, increasing investment and efforts to increase productivity in the agricultural sector, appropriate foreign exchange policies are recommended to prevent unreasonable increases in the exchange rate, and reducing tariffs and trade restrictions to increase trade openness.
Research Article-en
M. Bahrami Nasab; A. Firoozzare; A. Dourandish; M. Sabouhi; M. Ghorbani
Abstract
Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture, especially in arid regions, yet its over-extraction has led to significant challenges, including declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management through an inclusive group decision-making ...
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Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture, especially in arid regions, yet its over-extraction has led to significant challenges, including declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management through an inclusive group decision-making approach involving diverse stakeholders, particularly farmers. The lack of farmer participation in decision-making processes often results in ineffective policies, highlighting a critical gap in current practices. Utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, specifically the fuzzy Shannon entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques, this research prioritizes strategies for reducing groundwater consumption in the Safiabad region of North Khorasan, Iran.
Qualitative data from stakeholder interviews provided insights into the challenges and opportunities related to groundwater use. The analysis revealed two primary strategies: transitioning to low water-demand crops and adopting modern irrigation systems. These approaches not only promise significant reductions in water usage but also support sustainable agricultural practices. The findings underscore the importance of stakeholder collaboration in implementing effective water management policies, facilitating responsible resource use, and ensuring long-term viability. This study serves as a model for future research, advocating for mixed methods that integrate qualitative and quantitative analyses to inform policy recommendations and improve water resource management.
Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture, especially in arid regions, yet its over-extraction has led to significant challenges, including declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management through an inclusive group decision-making approach involving diverse stakeholders, particularly farmers. The lack of farmer participation in decision-making processes often results in ineffective policies, highlighting a critical gap in current practices. Utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, specifically the fuzzy Shannon entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques, this research prioritizes strategies for reducing groundwater consumption in the Safiabad region of North Khorasan, Iran.
Qualitative data from stakeholder interviews provided insights into the challenges and opportunities related to groundwater use. The analysis revealed two primary strategies: transitioning to low water-demand crops and adopting modern irrigation systems. These approaches not only promise significant reductions in water usage but also support sustainable agricultural practices. The findings underscore the importance of stakeholder collaboration in implementing effective water management policies, facilitating responsible resource use, and ensuring long-term viability. This study serves as a model for future research, advocating for mixed methods that integrate qualitative and quantitative analyses to inform policy recommendations and improve water resource management.
Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture, especially in arid regions, yet its over-extraction has led to significant challenges, including declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management through an inclusive group decision-making approach involving diverse stakeholders, particularly farmers. The lack of farmer participation in decision-making processes often results in ineffective policies, highlighting a critical gap in current practices. Utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, specifically the fuzzy Shannon entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques, this research prioritizes strategies for reducing groundwater consumption in the Safiabad region of North Khorasan, Iran.
Qualitative data from stakeholder interviews provided insights into the challenges and opportunities related to groundwater use. The analysis revealed two primary strategies: transitioning to low water-demand crops and adopting modern irrigation systems. These approaches not only promise significant reductions in water usage but also support sustainable agricultural practices. The findings underscore the importance of stakeholder collaboration in implementing effective water management policies, facilitating responsible resource use, and ensuring long-term viability. This study serves as a model for future research, advocating for mixed methods that integrate qualitative and quantitative analyses to inform policy recommendations and improve water resource management.
Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture, especially in arid regions, yet its over-extraction has led to significant challenges, including declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management through an inclusive group decision-making approach involving diverse stakeholders, particularly farmers. The lack of farmer participation in decision-making processes often results in ineffective policies, highlighting a critical gap in current practices. Utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, specifically the fuzzy Shannon entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques, this research prioritizes strategies for reducing groundwater consumption in the Safiabad region of North Khorasan, Iran.
Qualitative data from stakeholder interviews provided insights into the challenges and opportunities related to groundwater use. The analysis revealed two primary strategies: transitioning to low water-demand crops and adopting modern irrigation systems. These approaches not only promise significant reductions in water usage but also support sustainable agricultural practices. The findings underscore the importance of stakeholder collaboration in implementing effective water management policies, facilitating responsible resource use, and ensuring long-term viability. This study serves as a model for future research, advocating for mixed methods that integrate qualitative and quantitative analyses to inform policy recommendations and improve water resource management.
Research Article
Fatemeh Fathi; Mina Behnam
Abstract
Virtual water trade which is constantly increasing in the world indicates the economic concepts related to international trade, especially the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Every country exports goods which require relatively abundant and cheap factors for production, and imports ones which need relatively ...
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Virtual water trade which is constantly increasing in the world indicates the economic concepts related to international trade, especially the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Every country exports goods which require relatively abundant and cheap factors for production, and imports ones which need relatively rare and expensive factors. Using virtual water for managing water resources is among the critical topics because a large part of Iran has an arid and semi-arid climate and suffers from an increase in acute and excessive water scarcity. Oilseeds including soybean and sunflower are among the agricultural products required by Iran, which face a large volume of production and import every year.
Materials and Methods
The present study aims to assess the trend of importing the oilseeds virtual water from commercial partners and determine the effects of economic and environmental factors influencing their import during 2005-2020 utilizing the generalized gravity model. The economics and trade variable such as the ratio of Iran's GDP to other countries, import tariff ratio, real exchange rate growth, country risk index, distance between countries and sanction are considerd. The environmental variables such as area under cultivation, Access to water, lack of access to water per capita are considerd. Variables of access and lack of access to water, which consists of four environmental variables total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal and total fresh water volume.
Result and discution
The virtual water trading model is considered a scientific model and a practical solution to deal with the water shortage crisis in countries, especially Iran. In this research, through gravity models, the determinants affecting the volume of oilseed imports to Iran were identified. The variables of the ratio of Iran's GDP to the country of the trading partner and the access to water of the country of the trading partner were effective in both estimations, and the variable of the import tariff ratio was not effective in any of them. The risk variables of the countries have also been effective in importing virtual water. The variables of access to water and lack of access to water are environmental variables that are effective in the model, like economic variables. Therefore, the import of oilseeds is affected by economic variables, but since the importation of oilseeds is supported to meet the country's needs and the government currency has been used in the studied period, the variable of real exchange rate growth has less effect on imports. Is. But on the other hand, the variables of access and lack of access to water, which consist of four environmental variables (total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal, and the total volume of fresh water), play an important role in the import of virtual water through oilseeds to Iran. The following can be mentioned as suggestions: - Considering the significance of the variable distance between countries in the estimation, instead of meeting the demand for oilseeds from producers with a large geographical distance, it is suggested to exchange these products with neighboring countries and regional markets if it is possible and capable of producing these products. Will happen. In other words, the Iranian government should accept the risk of importing oilseeds from neighbors and regional markets that are less far away, not necessarily from the production hub. Maybe the cost of importing this product will decrease by choosing these countries. Also, according to the role of the risk index, it is expected that countries that carry less risk will be chosen as trading partners. Although the area under cultivation will be associated with the reduction of virtual water imports, considering the situation of Iran's water resources and the need to import these two types of oilseeds to Iran, it will not be possible to increase the area under cultivation. Importing virtual water can play an important role in the sustainability of water resources and, at the same time, supply domestic needs. According to the significance of the variables of access and lack of access to water in the estimated relationships for soybean and sunflower, some countries have a relative advantage in the production of these seeds. Therefore, for the management and sustainability of water resources, it is suggested to import from countries that have more access to water and also have more production. Therefore, importing more virtual water makes it possible to harvest more water for the cultivation of these types of seeds.
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