Research Article
A. Bagheri; A.R. Nikooie; F. Khodadad kashi; M. Shokat fadaei
Abstract
Introduction: Irregular consumption of groundwater resources in the northern Mahyar plain that is located in Zayande Rood basin river has considerably decreased the water’s level of aquifer of this plain and groundwater resources as important resources of water supply for agriculture of this region ...
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Introduction: Irregular consumption of groundwater resources in the northern Mahyar plain that is located in Zayande Rood basin river has considerably decreased the water’s level of aquifer of this plain and groundwater resources as important resources of water supply for agriculture of this region have been faced with a negative balance. On this basis, Aquifer management in terms of preserving and sustainability of water resources is very important. The regional economic dependence on irrigated agriculture and the decline of the Mahyar Aquifer due to agricultural pumping have been much of the basis for the relatively recent governmental interest in developing policy alternatives for conserving water in the aquifer. Especially, for the area's economy is based on agricultural production. Although governments supportive payments to agricultural activities are fulfilled for the purpose of increasing of social benefits, it will cause some economic and environmental externalities. The objectives of this study were to analyze and evaluate the outcomes of water price increment as specified water conservation policy alternatives on groundwater consumption and cropping patterns on the aquifer of northern Mahyar plain in Isfahan province, using non-linear optimization models.
Materials and Methods: The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of irrigation water pricing scenarios on groundwater balance and the modification in farmers' cropping patterns in the northern Mahyar plain. The objective function in this study is to maximize net present value to land, management, groundwater, and irrigation systems over a twenty years planning horizon. For these purposes, A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model is considered in a dynamic framework and was calibrated to land use data for a base period of 2004-2005. The effects of the eight pricing scenarios of water in the range of zero to 1800 (IRR) on parameters over a period of twenty years were simulated by the model. PMP approach produces a constrained non-linear optimization model that mimics the land and water allocation decision facing producers each year The choice variables in the model are the acreages planted to each of the major crops and the water use by crop. This method is a useful approach in the determination of planning strategies and policies for groundwater systems. This method was intended to collect data and survey-based study of 250 questionnaires, documents, and use of views and experiences of experts.
Results and Discussion: The results derived from the model employed in this work showed that water pricing alone can potentially reduce considerably the consumption of aquifer groundwater, and adjust the trend of overexploitation of groundwater by irrigated agriculture. This effect is generated mainly as a result of water pricing providing incentives to the modification of farmers' cropping patterns through the substitution of crops with higher water requirements by others which use less water. Therefore, another modification in farmers' cropping patterns is substitution of crops with traditional irrigation by modern irrigation system. In fact, it has been analyzed that under certain structural and economic conditions, the effect of pricing policies can generate significant levels of water savings. The chief generalization is that the high water price scenarios significantly decreased the rate of decline in saturated thickness. Regardless of the price scheme, the saturated thickness will increase so long as the rate of recharge exceeds the irrigation rate. Therefore, it stands to reason that we should observe an increase in the saturated thickness than a base price scenario. A limitation of this proposed model regards the assumption of constant technology for both irrigation systems and pumping engines, which is significant in affecting the results.
Conclusions: Water pricing policies can affect water saving, at least in some situations, depending on water tariff rates, external conditions, and type of consumer behavior. Given the initial volume of groundwater in the northern Mahyar plain, it is imaginable that critical conditions will be reached in the near future by continuing the base scenario. A non-linear dynamic programming model in the framework of PMP techniques has been built to analyze the effects of water pricing scenarios on groundwater conservation of northern Mahyar plain. The Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) method proved to be very effective. As seen in the data section there was not a plethora of information (data) on this subject. Therefore, it was important that the method chosen for this study could use a minimal amount of data while still maintaining accuracy. The PMP method was able to take the minimal data, calibrate to it, and then effectively reproduce the observed results. Additionally, the production function was able to be incorporated into this process seamlessly while maintaining accuracy. The result shows that under the high price scenarios, water application per acre decreased significantly during the early years of the simulated period. This suggests that high water prices have a significant effect on the rate of increment of the northern Mahyar aquifer stability. This is one of the first times that the PMP method has been incorporated into an applied groundwater management problem such as this, while also incorporating hydrological and agronomic information over time.
Research Article
A. Khatoon Abadi; M. Noroozi; M. Ataie; J. Mir Mohammad Sadeghi
Abstract
Introduction Development approaches, such as rural development, from the mid1920s, were emerged for decreasing the ongoing socio-economical gap among social groups in society and improving their situation methods such as production-oriented strategy, social mobilization and total rural development attracted ...
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Introduction Development approaches, such as rural development, from the mid1920s, were emerged for decreasing the ongoing socio-economical gap among social groups in society and improving their situation methods such as production-oriented strategy, social mobilization and total rural development attracted the attention of social and economic thinkers. Social mobilization is one of the developing approaches in which improvement of institutions and social problems is taken into consideration in order to empower people by means of encouraging partnership and engagement. The methodological approach was survey research through descriptive data, correlational and comparative analysis. There has been always a controversy on the paradoxical nature of cooperative work from one hand, and the quality of products on the other. The fact that whether all cooperative activities affect the quality is the concern of this research regarding the targeted carpet cooperatives. The socio-economical, political and cultural norms and values affect how people work together to create a common product. Moreover, the mental structures count, regarding the dominance or prevalence of one the three goal structures consisting of individualistic, cooperative and competitive goal structures. and human goal structures.
Materials and Methods The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of rural carpet cooperatives on some socio-economic variables. The sample included 250 individuals (95 percent of the whole population) comprising of 200 who were cooperative members and 50 among non-members. The data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and T Test, Crosstabs and Pearson correlation coefficient.The data collection tool was questionnaire which its validity was confirmed by experts and its reliability was estimated by calculating Cronbach's alpha coefficient 0.79.
Results and Discussion The descriptive results showed that using the t-test and correlation was concluded at the level of 0.05 percent. The quantity of carpet produced by members of cooperative with an average 2.30 square meters was more than those of non- members with an average of 1.77 square meters. Although, the amount of production, among cooperative institutions, was more in quantity, the quality of products decreased. This is due to application of simpler weaving designs, and a lack of sufficient practical training and also, less monitoring processes in comparison with the private weavers. The production cost in the carpet cooperatives was less than none- members. One the main reasons are the fact of collective ownership of production facilities and instruments. Because of having access, also to better and cheaper materials by cooperative members the production cost decreases in the cooperatives. Around 42 percent of marketing and sales is done by the cooperatives, while for non-members less 5 percent is done by the cooperatives. It can have played a significant role in marketing and sales of the members’ woven carpets. The materials also, that were provided a better quality in comparison. This demonstrates the cooperative roles in providing quality materials. On the other hand, based on the members’ viewpoints, the cooperatives played a successful role in providing credit loans for their members. Although, most of the members received loans, due to no-cash nature of most of the loans, the wealthier members were benefited more. This does not much the philosophy of cooperatives which is based on equity and justice .Based on the members’ view point and using correlation analysis at the level of 0.05 percent, cooperatives had effective role in omitting the unnecessary marketing dealers. There was not a significant difference between the members’ attitudes towards cooperative (as a socio-economical institution), and their participation in the cooperatives such as in decision making, and provision of capital. The reason for this was a lack knowledge of cooperatives by the members. At the same time, despite official task and high organizational capacity, the cooperatives had performed weakly in delivering vocational training programs.
Conclusions In general members also, were monitored with longer period than non-members and the members were not satisfied by the cooperatives performance. Finally, it is concluded that despite increase in the quantity of the cooperatives’ products, the quality has decreased. This is with due respect to application of simpler and the less complicated designs and lack of sufficient essential trainings and also lower evaluation and monitoring processes in comparison with the private sector. Regarding the importance of vocational and practical trainings in sustainable development process, these cooperatives have demonstrated a weak performance. It is recommended that related educational and extension departments concentrate on the trainings of the carpet cooperative workers to increase their income and the quality of their products.
Research Article
R. Jamshidi; M. Salimifar; M.T. Ahmadi Shadmehri; M. Ghorbani
Abstract
Introduction: Provincial current and infrastructural budgets are the most important economic tools for public sector and can help to reduce regional inequalities and imbalances in Iran. despite the government's expanded role in Iran's economy, but for various reasons, such as access to oil revenues, ...
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Introduction: Provincial current and infrastructural budgets are the most important economic tools for public sector and can help to reduce regional inequalities and imbalances in Iran. despite the government's expanded role in Iran's economy, but for various reasons, such as access to oil revenues, certain principles of government in society and so on, the importance of the budget as one of the most important economic and social policy instruments are not known. In other words, due to the privileged position of planning and importance of budget in preparation and implementation of medium-term development programs, Budgeting is ineffective in Iran. Therefore, the process of preparation and implementation of the budget management has become a difficult and complex issue in public sector in the last half-century that imposes to the government. So, budgeting pattern is important for presenting provincial capital assets budgeting in that format.
Method and materials: considering that the way of allocation of funds to various sectors of the country, is related to a spatial relationship between regions, a strategy with the ability to measure local heterogeneity should have been applied. Therefore, in this study, the spatial econometrics method spatial Durbin model with the panel data has been employed. The geographic scope of this study includes all provinces and time scope contains 10 years (2005-2014). In this study, variables of provincial revenues, the share of service, industry, agriculture, and oil in GDP, intermediate consumption in economic activity, inflation rate, unemployment rate, gross domestic product per capita, population and province area as programming variables are used. Besides economic, demographic and geographic variables, political variables such as participation in the presidential election and the percentage of votes to elected president in each province have been added to the budget allocation pattern.
Results: The unit root test results showed that all variable is stationary. Two methods are available for estimate the panel data. The first method is fixed effect model and the second method is random effect model. Results of Hausman test confirm that fixed effect model is better than random effect model. Results indicated that the variables of a share of service, industry, agriculture and oil sectors in GDP and gross domestic product per capita have statistically significant effect on an associated budget in provinces. This results illustrated that government approach in budget allocation is economic and according to the positive effect of these variables on attracting budget (except the share of service sector in GDP) can be stated that government in order to expand the production and greater use of the economic potential of provinces invest in areas where investment will lead to more production and economic development. These findings confirm that provinces with advance agriculture and industry sectors attract more budget in comparison with other provinces. The effects of provincial revenues approved in the law on the budget allocated for infrastructure in the region is significant and positive. The results showed a significant negative effect of inflation rate on the budget allocation. This finding is consistent with economic theory because with an increase in inflation rate or the consumer price index will be reduced economic growth of provinces. In fact, increase in inflation rate has a negative effect on the economic efficiency of each province and this leads to less budget allocated to provinces that have a high inflation rate. Variable of unemployment rate has no significant effect on the budget allocated to the provinces. Budget allocation regardless of the unemployment rate in the region indicates that the process of granting budget is based on efficiency criteria. Because the poor and less developed regions with higher the unemployment rates, less credit is given.
Conclusion: In general, the results indicated that government's approach for allocation of budgets in provinces is economic and based on programs. It is necessary to mention that government's approach to allocation of budgets in provinces is not merely a based program and policy-driven approach also had an impact on the budget allocations to the provinces, but these effects are not for province with a high percentage of votes to elected president. In fact, policy-driven approach to creating political-regional integration is used in the acquisition more votes. In other words, if taking into account indirect effects, it can be concluded that government is used application-driven approach to target provinces and policy-driven approach to neighboring provinces in the allocation of budget.
Research Article
H. Aghasafari; A. Karbasi
Abstract
Introduction: The consumer has an important situation in a market. Therefore, the adoption and success of developed marketing strategies, marketing mix, and other marketing programs among consumers strongly depend on the company’s ability to correctly understand consumer’s needs and expectations ...
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Introduction: The consumer has an important situation in a market. Therefore, the adoption and success of developed marketing strategies, marketing mix, and other marketing programs among consumers strongly depend on the company’s ability to correctly understand consumer’s needs and expectations as well as on properly detection and identifying individual factors and stimuli influencing consumers when purchasing products for the purpose of reaching their satisfaction. Brand is a tool to position a product or a service with consistent image of quality to ensure the development of repeating customer preferences. Companies spend a lot of money and time on the branding and thus they need to evaluate the effect of brand on consumer buying behavior. Several factors influence the choice of a brand by consumers. In this study, attitudes toward branded rice and their interaction impact on consumer purchase behavior are assessed.
Materials and Methods: This study has used the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) has been derived from the classical comparative methods that John Stuart Mill theorized in 1843 and Ragin developed and popularized the method in his seminal work. Rather than estimate the net effects of single variables, QCA employs Boolean logic to examine the relationship between an outcome and all binary combinations of multiple predictors. The advantage of QCA is that it allows the researcher to find distinct combinations of causal variables that, in turn, suggest different theoretical pathways to given outcomes. Traditionally, QCA was considered appropriate for relatively small samples, but a QCA with larger samples is technically possible and can produce meaningful results. QCA might be considered an alternative to regression analysis for samples of any size. QCA is better than regressions when the links are complex, i.e., when they are anticipated to involve conjunctural causation, asymmetric links, and equifinality. QCA is also better than regressions when you try to estimate how much a particular factor influences the outcome. As the variables are metric, the appropriate variant of QCA is fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). To analyze the complex causality in the data, essentially you need to proceed in five steps. In the present study, in order to assess the effect of consumer attitude toward branded rice on purchasing of this kind of rice, was used questionnaire tool to collect data through simple random sampling method.
Results and Discussion: Results show that 27 combinations from different attitudes indicate 20 percent of consumer according to ABCDE combination are strongly agree with all attitude toward branded rice and their agreement cause to purchase branded rice. After this, the highest percentage is related to 16% consumers with AbcDE combination. This means that consumers’ agreement with better flavor, better packaging and availability of branded rice cause to purchase branded rice. Finally, 32 combinations have been collapsed into three combinations. In the first and second combination, high agreement with better flavor of branded rice and low agreement with better packaging of branded rice effect on branded rice consumption. In the first combination, these two conditions have been combined with low agreement with enhancing the social status by consuming branded rice that obtained combination explain 26 percent probability of branded rice consumption. In the second combination, these two conditions have been combined with low agreement with availability of branded rice that explain 30 percent probability of branded rice consumption. However, the third combination only by low agreement with overpriced of branded rice or in other words high agreement with proper price of branded rice explains 53 percent probability of branded rice consumption.
Conclusions: The Findings indicated that high agreement with proper price of branded rice with the highest rate of coverage effects on purchasing of branded rice. Therefore, it is suggested that producers of branded rice, in order to increase market share, offer better prices than their competitors. The combination of attitudes high agreement with desirable flavor of branded rice, low agreement with proper packaging of branded rice and low agreement with availability of branded rice with a 30% coverage rate is in the second place in influencing on the tend to buy branded rice. So, it is recommended that producers of branded rice have more attention to the flavor of rice, try to design packaging coordinated by needs of consumers and take action to better distribution of branded rice in the city.
Research Article
G. Dashti; M. Rashidghalam; E. Pishbahar
Abstract
Introduction
Despite their advantages, the DEA and FDH approaches have been criticized by econometricians for being deterministic, lacking a well-defined data generating process and for being highly sensitive to outliers and measurement errors. This objection was recently addressed by so-called partial ...
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Introduction
Despite their advantages, the DEA and FDH approaches have been criticized by econometricians for being deterministic, lacking a well-defined data generating process and for being highly sensitive to outliers and measurement errors. This objection was recently addressed by so-called partial frontier approaches, namely order-m and order-αefficiency measurement methods. To examine technical efficiency over time we used four non-parametric models using Window analysis which include Window-DEA, Window-FDH, Window order-α and Window order-m models. Window analysis uses moving average patterns in a way that every provincial observation in each period treated as if it is a different observation. Window analysis leads to a higher number of observations. The aim is to shed light on temporal patterns and heterogeneity in efficiency, time dependency and sensitivity of the results attributed to different efficiency measurement methodologies that are applied using the same dataset. In this study, we analyze the performance of cotton producing provinces in Iran over 2000-12.
Materials and Methods
Efficiency can be measured using parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric approaches. In this study non-parametric approach was selected.The main contributions of this study are related to useing of four different Windows-based models to estimate technical efficiency using the same data and investigating the consistency of efficiency rankings. The DEA method is a non-parametric mathematical programming approach used to evaluate a set of comparable decision-making units (DMUs). Another method which has received a considerable amount of research attention is the FDH model which first formulated by Deprins et al., (1984).FDH estimator is both a deterministic and non-parametric tool for measuring productive efficiency. It is deterministic due to its inability to accommodate stochastic properties, it’s non- parametric nature arise from its lack of functional form specification. Like the DEA estimator, the FDH is also very sensitive to outliers/ extreme observations, susceptible to dimensionality problems and highly sensitive to noise. The basic motivation in FDH is to ensure that efficiency evaluations are affected only from actually observed performances. All the nonparametric envelopment estimators of frontiers are particularly sensitive to extreme observations, or outliers. These extreme points may disproportionately, and perhaps misleadingly, influence the evaluation of the performance of other firms. This drawback also plagues parametric frontier estimators when deterministic frontier models are considered. Then we use two partial frontier models: order-m and Order-α. According to Daraio and Simar (2007), order-m generalizes FDH by adding a layer of randomness to the computation of efficiency scores. Order-α is also a generalization of the FDH estimator which employs the (100-α)th percentile approach to minimize input consumption among available peers for benchmarking. At the end of the paper, we calculated the Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients (r) to determine how close the implied rankings of provinces were in each of the models.
Results and Discussion
This study analyzes the technical efficiency of Iran's 13 major sugar beet producing provinces over the period 2000-2012. According to the results, mean technical efficiency of models Window-DEA, Window-FDH, Window order-m and Window order- were 0.67, 0.94, 0.80 and 0.77 respectively. According to Window order-α and Window order-m, Kerman is supper efficient province and Isfahan is the most inefficient province. Also with respect to Window-DEA and Window-FDH, West-Azerbayjan, Khorasan and Lorestan provinces are the most efficient provinces in Iran’s sugar beet production. When we drop the convexity assumption (that is, move from Window-DEA to Window-FDH), the estimated efficiency scores become higher (as expected since the best practice frontier then wraps itself closer around the data). According to Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient results there is a strong correlation between full frontier models. Technical efficiency correlation between model one and models three and four is positive but insignificant. A very strong correlation also is between model three and four, therefore these models could be substituted in technical efficiency studies.
Conclusions
According to the results and almost all of the models, Khorasan province is one of the most efficient provinces in Iran’s sugar beet production. Therefore it is recommended that policy makers have a special attention to this province as a potential to increase sugar beet production. It is also recommended that it would be better if experience could be transferred from efficient to non-efficient provinces. On the other hand, due to the fact that full frontier models have more realistic assumption than partial frontier models, it is recommended that the former ones be utilized in future studies to get more reliable efficiency scores.
Research Article
E. Moradi; M. Afsharmanesh
Abstract
Introduction
One of the characteristics of agricultural products in Iran is continuous price fluctuations. There are many factors that can lead to fluctuations in prices in the agricultural sector. The important of these factors are the seasonal and cyclical changes in supply, the shift from global ...
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Introduction
One of the characteristics of agricultural products in Iran is continuous price fluctuations. There are many factors that can lead to fluctuations in prices in the agricultural sector. The important of these factors are the seasonal and cyclical changes in supply, the shift from global prices to the domestic market of agricultural products, the shifting of the volatility of inputs into products and the fluctuations caused by the general trend of prices The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of price shock inputs that are used in the production of corn, on the price of the corn crop. Studies in Iran are further on the transfer of the farm to the retail price and the transmission of price shocks from the inputs market to product market has not been established. To examine this matter, VAR model with panel data was used.
Materials and Methods
For this purpose, we used data on the prices of inputs used in corn production, including land, fertilizer, labor, seed, and pesticides, as well as the price of corn since 1999 to 2012 year, for 16 provinces in Iran. That these provinces produce 93.5 percent of total corn Produced in the country. In order to analyze the data model is specified in the form of PVAR (Vector Auto Regression with Panel Data). Time-series vector auto regression (VAR) models originated in the macro econometric literature as an alternative to multivariate simultaneous equation models. All variables in a VAR system are typically treated as endogenous, although identifying restrictions based on theoretical models or on statistical procedures may be imposed to disentangle the impact of exogenous shocks on the system. To specify the model input price shock impacts the price of corn. The model introduced by Kilian was used as the basis model. According to the study, the effect of input price shocks on the price of corn models was modified.
Results and Discussion
If the shock rise in the price of pesticide, fertilizer, and land to occur each of these shocks separately will increase the price of corn, the effect of these shocks has been moved to later periods. Fertilizers price shocks are long-term and neutralization of this process is very slow. However the impact of price shocks of agricultural pesticides and the land quickly neutralized and this index converges whit corn price. Shock rise in corn prices over a period, Makes the corn prices generally decline in the next period and increase the area under cultivation in the following year, with increasing the area under cultivation may take advantage of economies of scale provided and on the other hand, there is the possibility of commuting buying with more inputs. The effect of all impulses can be said after ten periods, will be neutralized. Only shock that after ten periods are not neutral and it is still its effects visible as the shock of the price of fertilizer. The results showed that the corn price volatility is partly influenced by the price of production inputs.63% of the corn price growth changes related to changing values of its past, 8/4% due to changes in land rental growth, 24% of the change in the growth of the price of fertilizer; 1.5% growth related to changes in the price of seed growth (according to the results of the effect is reversed), and 4.1% related to changes in the growth of prices of agricultural pesticides.
Conclusions
Time of purchase of chemical fertilizers is during planting (phosphate fertilizers) and retention period product (Nitrogen fertilizers).In this sense, it seems that the price of fertilizer and how to increase or decrease is one of the important variables and decision-making (after the price trend of maize) in the formation of corn prices on the market. The ownership structure of the agricultural sector is in such a way that most farmers have their land ownership. The cost of renting land is in the form of implicit costs and not obvious and its role in decision-making between variables is low. The cost of agricultural pesticides in the entire cost of production is not significant and the results show that its role in the formation of corn price changes is small. Organization of market demand and supply and timely distribution of inputs for control market price fluctuations and shocks on inputs market can be effective in stabilizing the price of corn.
Research Article
Sh. Zare; H. Mohammadi; M. Sabouhi
Abstract
Introduction Sustainable use of groundwater resources has been a concern of the past half century. Although a number of countries for many years have considered this issue, in Iran despite experts warning in the past two decades, recently has been highly regarded, especially by public officials. The ...
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Introduction Sustainable use of groundwater resources has been a concern of the past half century. Although a number of countries for many years have considered this issue, in Iran despite experts warning in the past two decades, recently has been highly regarded, especially by public officials. The use of modern irrigation systems by improving water distribution at the level of the farm and reduce the outflow of water from plant availability, improve irrigation efficiency but these systems increase evaporation and transpiration, and even in the event of a reduction of extraction water from wells, may not be effective in balance of the groundwater resources. The government of Islamic Republic of Iran, yearly pay a lot of subsidies (85% of total cost), to increase irrigation efficiency by equipping traditional culture to new irrigation systems. It may increase irrigation efficiency but may not improve balance of the groundwater resources. However, increasing irrigation efficiency in the process of conveyance, distribution, and application of water, improve groundwater balance, and reduce energy consumption, but costs, benefits and its impacts on balance of the groundwater resources are various in each step. so, technical and economic effects of each step and determining the priority of them, were the objectives of this study.
Materials and Methods In order to carry out this study, five cities include Mashhad, Sabzevar, Neyshabour, Torbat-e-jam and Torbat-e-heidarieh were selected. These areas are located in Khorasan Razavi in north east of Iran with average annual rain 200-250 millimeter. The mathematical relationships between extracted water from underground and surface resources and transfer it to farms as well as water influence to groundwater source and the rate of consumption in the fields and orchards were simulated in the excel spreadsheet. Data were collected by using questionnaires and interviews with farmers in the study area in the crop year 2012-2013. Additional data were collected from government documents in ministry of agriculture, energy and regional office. A multi scenario was simulated include 1-Increase the conveyance and distribution efficiency, CDE, to 95 % via transform dirty channel into the pipe. 2-Substitute pressurized irrigation systems instead of traditional system.3-Combining scenario one and two together. 4- Increasing irrigation application efficiency, IAE, to 75% in modern system in scenario three. 5-Increasing irrigation application efficiency, IAE, to 85% in modern systems in scenario three. 6- Execute scenario one and increasing area of irrigation modern systems to dual of initial forecast (only in Sabzevar until 1.5times). These scenarios also evaluated economically. In economic evaluation, increase of yield, between 10-40 percent as 4 scenarios separately, and reduce energy subsidies include increase power price to 2 times, and three kinds of cost price of power was considered.
Results and Discussion Average of CDE were obtained various between 57-78% in study area. The share of agricultural activity in reduce of groundwater source was 20% and most of area was encountered with low irrigation in warm seasons until to 50%. The most impact in creating balance in groundwater resources belonged to increase of CDE by first scenario and was quite economical. The most reduction on groundwater deficit can happen by scenario 5. However, in Torbat-e-jam and Torbat-e-heidarieh, groundwater deficit will continue unless the culture areas are reduced. Increasing IAE, is more effective than developing culture area of the pressurized irrigation systems, CAPIS, for example, in Sabzvar, increasing of IAE by 12% (scenario four), will reduce groundwater deficit 164% but increasing CAPIS, to 50%( scenario 6), will reduce groundwater deficit only 113%. Increasing CAPIS, with 30% increase in yield, make scenario three economical, but increase electrical energy and so, increase national cost by increasing subsidy of energy. First scenario, reduce consumption of electric power, so its benefit cost ratio will increase because reduce government cost but scenario two, increase consumed electrical energy. In the Sabzevar city power consumption in the first scenario was more than 176 million Kilowatt, which reduces farmers' spending by more than 23 billion IRR, But in the second scenario, energy consumption is rising by more than 25 million kilowatts. So, its benefit cost ratio will decrease if government reduce power subsidy. As a result, this scenario without increase of IAE and yield, will not be economical. In all city except Sabzevar with the increasing yield by 20 percent, all scenarios will be economical, also in all city, with omission of the power subsidy, scenario 2 will be uneconomical, so the government is forced to grant subsidies to expand new irrigation systems. The city of Sabzevar, which has the longest route for pipelines (about 42%), requires an initial investment of 695 billion rials, with investment of 1079 billion IRR needed to equip 15342 hectares of land to modern systems. Therefore, the first scenario, although having more economic benefits, requires a relatively small amount of investment as well. Regarding the energy cost of between 680 and 7300 Rls, a number of government payments with the implementation of the first scenario is reduced from 96 to 1263 billion rials yearly, while the total initial capital required to realization of the goal is 695 billion rials, which is estimated at 70 billion rials, annually.
Replacing the irrigation modern systems instead of traditional systems without reducing the gap between the current and potential IAE, had a little impact on the groundwater balance, and to consider energy subsidies, is in conflict to national benefits.
Conclusions Installation of volumetric meters and tubing for water transmission and distribution channels should be used in preference to increase the efficiency of irrigation, reduce energy consumption and water extraction from wells, protection of saving water, and prevention of increase in cultivation. In order to increase the water application efficiency and production, implementation of modern irrigation systems on farms and gardens should be accompanied by adequate supervision and training.