Research Article
Agricultural Economics
Parastoo Sarani; Alireza Shahraki; Sayyid Ali Banihashemi
Abstract
IntroductionThere is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic has had numerous adverse impacts on every aspect of human existence. In times of crises like epidemics throughout history, ensuring a sufficient food supply has always been a crucial concern. Given that the agricultural sector plays a vital role ...
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IntroductionThere is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic has had numerous adverse impacts on every aspect of human existence. In times of crises like epidemics throughout history, ensuring a sufficient food supply has always been a crucial concern. Given that the agricultural sector plays a vital role in the food supply chain and maintaining sustainability in this sector is essential for food security, this study aims to identify and prioritize the factors that influence the sustainability of the agricultural supply chain, specifically focusing on the wheat crop, during and after the Corona era. Materials and MethodsBased on the research background, the factors that impact the sustainability of the agricultural supply chain were determined. In the agricultural sector, like previous studies on supply chain sustainability, the study focused on the three dimensions of sustainability: economic, social, and environmental. However, experts suggest that the study is more centered on these three dimensions, which are particularly significant in the agricultural industry. By utilizing the Fuzzy Delphi method, 28 sub-criteria related to these hidden sustainability variables were identified. The Fuzzy DEMATEL method was then employed to examine cause-and-effect relationships and the interaction between criteria. Finally, the Fuzzy method was used to determine the degree of importance and weight of these criteria. Results and DiscussionTo achieve sustainable agriculture, research centers should prioritize the necessary research in this field, as highlighted by Sharghi et al. (2010). Farmers who possess more information about sustainability have been found to have more sustainable farms, confirming a direct correlation between these two factors (Afrous & Abdollahzadeh, 2011). The outcomes of the present study align with previous research, demonstrating that the level of attention given by research organizations to required research on sustainability is the most influential criterion within the causal group of sustainable procurement with a weight of 3.34, it holds the highest importance in the ranking according to the SWARA method. Updating and sharing information in DEMATEL's method has the fourth highest impact on other factors in the cause-and-effect group. However, in the SWARA's method was found to be the second most important factor, with a weight of 0.2403. Another study confirmed that the three main limitations of sustainable wheat production are the farmers' limited knowledge, lack of approved and resistant seeds, and inadequate management systems, especially for weeds. The use of local suppliers, specifically utilizing stored seeds from farmers, can lead to the spread of diseases and an increase in weed populations (Husenov et al., 2017). The proliferation of weeds leads to the squandering of production resources and a decrease in production levels. The most impactful factor for the sustainability of the wheat supply chain, as determined by the causal group, is the requirement of collaborating with an ISO-certified supplier. This criterion holds a significant weight of 0.4915 and is essential for achieving sustainable supply and design. Recognizing the significance of this criterion is crucial to enhance production and mitigate the risk of potential diseases. However, farmers, due to the expensive cost of modified seeds, resort to utilizing seeds from their previous crop. Based on the Fuzzy DEMATEL method, water consumption management ranked fifth among the criteria that influence other criteria. However, according to the Fuzzy SWARA method, it ranked second with a weight of 0.251. With water resources being scarce in the region, it is crucial to use water efficiently and prevent wastage, as this will positively impact productdid not support the significance of stopping gray marketing of products. According to experts, this study determined that the most effective criteria for the causal group in stabilizing the agricultural supply chain of wheat products during the Covid-19 era is to stop gray marketing. This criterion received the highest degree of importance, with a weight of 0.4469, in the dimension of sustainable distribution.Imports decreased because of the restrictions and quarantine measures, which led to a shortage of seeds for crops like wheat that relied on imports. Social distancing measures also caused a shortage of labor in agriculture, leading to a significant reduction in farming activities. By focusing on supply and sustainable design during epidemics and crises, there is an ability increased to manage the supply chain and positively impact other aspects of production sustainability. ConclusionBased on the results obtained, increasing farmers' awareness, and utilizing approved seeds can prevent resource wastage and enhance the stability of the supply chain. Additionally, reducing gray market activities can contribute to the supply chain's stability and ultimately enhance food security. Effective management of water consumption is also crucial for ensuring the sustainability of the supply chain, particularly due to the water scarcity crisis in the region. Enhancing the stability of the supply chain not only facilitates resilience during crises like Covid-19 but also promotes self-sufficiency in producing agricultural products essential for Iranian households, including wheat, which is a fundamental necessity.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
Parviz Rostamzadeh; Marzieh Rassaf
Abstract
IntroductionFood security is one of the most important issues in the world. The corona epidemic, Russia's attack on Ukraine, drought and many other factors have led to an increase in food prices. The sharp increase in global prices of basic food is considered a serious threat to global development, which ...
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IntroductionFood security is one of the most important issues in the world. The corona epidemic, Russia's attack on Ukraine, drought and many other factors have led to an increase in food prices. The sharp increase in global prices of basic food is considered a serious threat to global development, which leads to a significant increase in poverty, a decrease in the level of nutrition, and limited access to services such as education and health. The increase in the price of food in the world markets will also affect the domestic markets of the countries, especially for the countries that are large importers of food and have experienced heavy inflation in their countries. Iran is one of the countries that import food in the world, so higher global food price will undoubtedly affect various economic sectors of Iran. Considering the negative economic and social effects of the unbridled increase in food prices, the impact of global food prices on domestic prices has been the focus of recent studies. Materials and MethodsComputable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is a system of equations that explains an economy in its general form and the interaction between its components. One of the types of general equilibrium models is the GTAP model. This model is specific to global trade analysis and is multi-regional. This model is static (one-period) and includes several economic regions, several economic sectors, and a fixed amount of several production factors. The simulations will be done using the Run-GTAP software. This database has 129 districts and 57 economic sectors. In this study, two areas are considered; which includes Iran (IR) and the rest of the world (ROW). In the database software, all goods and economic sectors are grouped in 57 categories, which can be grouped in a maximum of ten categories or less. Here are four economic sectors: agriculture, industry and mining, oil and services, and three factors of production including labor, capital and land are considered. Results and DiscussionIn this study, the political experience of a 30 percent increase in the global price of agricultural goods will be examined. With a 30% increase in the global prices of agricultural products, the amount of demand reduction in the agricultural sector as a percentage of changes is equal to -1.37. As a result of the political shock the per capita utility of the private sector household has decreased by 1.32% and the per capita utility of the public sector has decreased by 2.14%. Also, the decrease in equivalent change as a welfare index is equal to -3349.05 million dollars. In a static model, the factors of population, technology and investment are assumed to be constant, so the amount of their change is zero, but in dynamic models, the positive or negative effects of these three factors can also be observed. Here (30% price shock on agricultural goods) efficient allocation is the most important factor affecting welfare (negatively). ConclusionIran is one of the importing countries in the past years in terms of grain demanding, and due to successive droughts and failure to observe a serious cultivation pattern in this area, it has faced the weakness of supplying part of its food needs. This forced Iran to import grains and food from other countries in the world, especially Russia. According to the increase in the food price index in the world, the possible effects of the increase in the global food price (30% shock) for Iran have been estimated using a global general equilibrium model. The results show that if the price of agricultural products in the world increases by 30%, the consumer price in Iran will increase in the agricultural sector and decrease in other sectors. Also, the amount of consumer goods will decrease in all sectors, while the amount of consumption of domestic goods will increase, except for the service sector, and the amount of consumption of imported goods will decrease in all sectors, especially the agricultural sector. In addition, the results show that the amount of production in the agricultural and oil sectors increases and has decreased in other sectors. Based on the EV welfare criterion, the welfare level of the private household decreases and the results of the welfare analysis show that the most important factor influencing the welfare is the effects of resource allocation (efficiency).
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
Maliheh Sheibani Nougabi; Alireza Karbasi; Hosein Mohammadi
Abstract
IntroductionToday, the businesses of the poultry industry are facing many challenges, because this industry has to manage a number of unique processes, methods and risks at the same time. Therefore, identifying the business risks of poultry production units can play an effective role in reducing the ...
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IntroductionToday, the businesses of the poultry industry are facing many challenges, because this industry has to manage a number of unique processes, methods and risks at the same time. Therefore, identifying the business risks of poultry production units can play an effective role in reducing the level of vulnerability of these businesses. Considering the need to increase the productivity of the poultry industry, one of the basic solutions is to identify the risk and measure the existing risks of this industry. Risk identification and quantification can reduce costs for industry stakeholders, and risk reduction leads to better production planning. In this regard, this study identifies the business risks of poultry production units in Khorasan Razavi province. Materials and MethodsThis study is applied as purpose and descriptive survey in terms of nature and method. This research is based on mixed research, qualitatively and quantitatively. The statistical population is poultry industry experts, 18 of whom were investigated by snowball sampling method as the research sample. This study proposes a new Delphi technique that uses the features of traditional Delphi techniques and the Fuzzy Delphi method. The proposed new Delphi technique is based on the integration of pentagonal fuzzy sets and the Delphi technique. Results and DiscussionThe results of the modified pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi method showed that five main risks and 36 secondary risks out of 58 identified risks are part of the business risks of poultry production units. Identified business risks of poultry production units, in order of priority, include inputs price fluctuations, command pricing, exchange rate fluctuations, sanctions, chicken price fluctuations, delay in accessing inputs, fluctuations in the purchase price of day-old chickens, fluctuations in drug and vaccine prices, imported inputs, lack of government support in the matter of production, fluctuations in subsidies to inputs, lack of animal inputs, import of poultry products, Promulgation of various instructions, poultry diseases, lack of liquidity of poultry farmers, bankruptcy of poultry farmers, fluctuations in current costs, losses, lack of medicine and vaccines, lack of expansion of poultry business, lack of confidence of poultry farmers in the government, fluctuations in profitability, investment, seasonal fluctuations in egg demand, dependence of poultry farmers on Special suppliers, supply of day-old chicks, lack of energy, exclusivity of the livestock and poultry feed supply system, egg price fluctuations, seasonal fluctuations in chicken production, seasonal fluctuations in chicken demand, weakness in providing working capital facilities to poultry farmers, lack of skilled human resources in time Appropriate, lack of technical knowledge of advanced technologies and lack of variety of poultry food ingredients. ConclusionThe business of poultry production units is facing various challenges and risks, and due to the many risks of this industry, production in this industry is facing problems and it is not possible to plan for it, and production will be disrupted in the future. Therefore, in this research, an effort was made to fully identify the business risks of poultry production units. In order to complete and finalize the business risks of poultry production units, the pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi method was used. In this regard, a questionnaire was prepared that included two parts. The first part is about the survey and information about the background of the respondents, and the second part includes the ranking of 54 identified risks. Fuzzy Delphi method in this study was done in two rounds and based on the opinion of experts, 4 more risks were added to the total of 54 risks, and finally 58 risks were analyzed using Fuzzy Delphi method. In Fuzzy Delphi, the selection of risk components among all the components that were identified in the research literature was based on the accepted threshold criterion. The results of the second round of modified pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi showed that there are 36 important sub-risks in the sector of production, market, financial, institutional and personal business risks of poultry production units. Considering the price fluctuations of livestock inputs and exchange rate fluctuations, it is suggested to allocate currency and control it by government policies in order to reduce mentioned fluctuations, or move towards diversifying poultry feed ingredients and formulating new poultry feed rations. Also, in order to avoid fluctuations in the price of chicken or eggs, it is suggested to make the distribution network smarter to prevent these fluctuations. In the poultry market, it is better to set a fair price for each kilogram of chicken according to the production costs of poultry farmers, or not to interfere with the government in the market and allow the government to set the price based on the supply and demand mechanism.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
Heshmatulah Asgari; Mohaddeseh Pouralimardan
Abstract
IntroductionConsidering the current process of destruction of natural resources in the country and the problems faced by the present and future generations, the measures taken in the field of conservation and restoration and development of natural resources do not seem to be enough. Although, to solve ...
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IntroductionConsidering the current process of destruction of natural resources in the country and the problems faced by the present and future generations, the measures taken in the field of conservation and restoration and development of natural resources do not seem to be enough. Although, to solve these problems, the role of the government as a planner and supporter of natural resources projects is clear and important (Arayesh & Farajilah Hosseini, 2010). However, the projects designed to conserve natural resources are implemented based on people's participation. In general, people's participation in projects in the field of natural resources protection can take place in various fields. The most important of these issues have been considered in the behavioral examples of the Helpers of Nature project which can be including planting seedlings, people's participation in times of crisis such as fire, protection of forests, contributing to environmental protection associations, joining environmental associations, waste management in terms of separation and volume, joining the natural resources projects through the organization's systems, introducing people to the natural resources organization in the form of nature's helper, paying the green tax and etc (Natural resources & watershed management organization-I.R of IRAN, 2023). However it is the question as how to attract people's participation in the mentioned issues requires tools that can influence human behavior. Behavioral economics, as a new scientific field of economic sciences, can measure and analyze the impact of intentions, beliefs, and motivations on human behavior and decisions, and based on this, it can also provide policy tools (Asgari et al., 2021). For this reason, it can influence people's behavior to participate in the conservation of natural resources using behavioral economics approach. Therefore, to realize the goal of attracting people's participation, the current study considers to examine nudges and the effectiveness of nudges on people's behavior using behavioral economics approach Materials and MethodsThe sampling method of the research is convenience sampling. The number of samples is 213 people using the online questionnaire in two separate groups. This study is a quasi-experimental design and its type is a comparison between two groups. The number of the control group includes 108 people and the number of the treatment group includes 105 people. The control and treatment groups were independent. Each of the groups had completely common questions and response criteria. In this study, the control and treatment groups did not receive any training, but only the treatment group was given additional information about cognitive errors along with related questions. First, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test is used to check and compare the ratings regarding supplementary information as well as the answers of people in the two groups. The ordered probit regression is used to analyze the relationship between ordinal or ranked dependent variables related to natural resource protection behavior and independent treatment (nudge) variables and other variables. For the relative dependent variables (the time of registration of cooperation request and the number of people introduced as a nature helper), the ordinary least square regression is used to analyze the effect of the treatment binary variable on the people's behavior in the field of natural resources conservation Results and DiscussionThis study results showed that out of 19 nudges, 14 nudges includes; Normative default, time limit, anchor and exemplify, carrot and stick, personalization, decoy effect, authority confirmation bias, bandwagon effect, present bias, automatic recommendation, halo effect and ownership effect (1) and (2) and (3) had a significant impact on these people's behavior, respectively, the number of seedlings, the time of registering a request for cooperation, participation in firefighting, waste production, the number of members introduced as a nature’s helper, choosing tasks, membership in associations, membership in a special association, recycling, people's action preferences for forest protection, the percentage of perceived success for projects, willingness to spend taxes to beautify one's neighborhood, willingness to spend taxes to protect forests in one's area, and applying zoning to protect forests. The direction of influence in all nudges (except for the normative default and time limit) on people's behavior has been positive and significant. The marginal effects also showed that all nudges had the positive effect (with ordinal or ranked dependent variable) on the selection of the target option(s) in the treatment group compared to the control group. The carrot and stick policy had no significant effect on the ordinal variable of waste production, but the effect of this nudge on dummy variable of waste production was significant, This means that this nudge has had a positive and significant effect on maintaining the existing situation (garbage collection every day of the week) and reducing the amount of garbage (choosing 20 kg of garbage and less per week). The normative default and the time limit had a negative and significant effect (respectively) on the number of seedlings and the registration time of cooperation requests for planting seedlings. These negative effects have also confirmed the positive effect of nudging on people's behavior. Although the normative default resulted in fewer seedlings being planted by individuals, this occurred because the default was set at a minimal level and individuals were significantly more inclined to follow the default. The nudge of the time limit also led to a reduction in the time to register cooperation requests by individuals, so that people tended to register their request faster. ConclusionAccording to the results of this research, to attract the people's participation in the conservation of natural resources, these following should be considered: defaults, low-cost anchors, clear examples, incentives and punishments, highlight individual performance through personalization, using existing privileges for more cooperation, confirming people's sovereignty, presenting reports during performance, immediate rewards, making SMS and telephone systems available to compensate for people's lack of action, considering time limits for registering people in programs and projects, providing success reports to join people in an action, applying people's ownership of the green tax to further encourage them to pay taxes, allocating each zone to an environmental association for forests protection.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
Mehdi Mirchooli; Mohammad Ghorbani; Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni
Abstract
IntroductionThe dependence of agriculture on environmental conditions has caused the activity in this sector to face natural and unnatural risks. After several years of agricultural insurance activity in Razavi Khorasan province, most of the pistachio farmers are not insured. Drought insurance is one ...
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IntroductionThe dependence of agriculture on environmental conditions has caused the activity in this sector to face natural and unnatural risks. After several years of agricultural insurance activity in Razavi Khorasan province, most of the pistachio farmers are not insured. Drought insurance is one of the methods that has become important to cover the risks of drought and lack of water resources in order to compensate part of the gardeners' losses. The main issue from a managerial perspective is risk management. The use of agricultural insurance, which is one of the risk management tools, will ensure financial security and stability for farmers. Given that insurance is a tool for risk management, and given the uncertainty and risks of climate change in agriculture, insurance can be a very adaptable tool to water scarcity. Agricultural insurance is considered as a useful and appropriate solution to deal with natural hazards. . Drought insurance is an important factor in off-farm drought risk management that can mitigate the effects of this inevitable phenomenon. Insurance as one of the risk management tools can increase the risk-taking of farmers and, consequently, increase the sense of security in farmers, the necessary ground for proper and efficient use of factors of production and investment in the use of new technology and thus increase productivity in agriculture provide. The effects of water scarcity can be summarized as follows; Loss of production and income, abandonment of busy crops (with high water demand) and decline in agricultural employment, on the other hand, intensifies the over-exploitation of groundwater aquifers, which has tempted many farmers to do so meet your water needs. Access to water in the study area is one of the important variables affecting pistachio yield and quality as well as the survival of pistachio trees. This variable directly affects the profitability of producers and gardeners may suffer losses from this vital input. For this reason, gardeners' behavior in relation to regular pistachio insurance can affect access to water and make more farmers inclined to drought insurance. Materials and MethodsThis research seeks to answer the question that with 5% reduction in available water, pistachio growers in Sabzevar city, whether these people are willing to accept pistachio drought insurance or not, and if so, what is the extent of this desire. The Probit pattern is one of the most suitable econometric patterns for censored observations. This model was first proposed by Tobin (1958) to estimate the demand for durable goods. Subsequently, Arab Mazar and Schmidt (1979), Brown and Mufit (1982), Madela and Nelson (1982), and Hard (1975) worked on and developed the model, validating its high capability. This pattern was named by Goldberger (1964) as the Tobit or Probin Tobin model. Assume that y is the level of activity or action desired and xi are factors that generally affect the level of activity or action in question, namely:Also assume that one group of the observed observations performs the desired activity and the other group (the rest) does not perform the desired activity. As mentioned earlier, the values of xi and yi are visible for the first group. While for the second group only xi values are available and yi values are zero.In Hackmann's proposed two-step method for estimating the Tobit model, it is assumed that one set of variables may influence the decision to participate in the activity and another set of variables may affect the amount of activity performed after the decision is made. Therefore, two different sets of variables can be included in the Probit model, which are not necessarily barriers to aggregation. Therefore, two different sets of variables can be included in the Tobit model, which are not necessarily barriers to aggregation. Because it does not have a one-step model of this flexibility, it assumes that the variables influencing a person's decision to engage in an activity are the same as the variables that determine the amount of activity, if this is not necessarily the case. Hackman's two suggested steps are:Step 1: In the first step, the variables that affect the decision of gardeners in accepting pistachio drought insurance are identified and placed in a model with a binary dependent variable (zeros and ones); This means that the positive values of the dependent variable that indicate the tendency to accept pistachio drought insurance become the number one, and the dependent variable that does not tend to accept the drought insurance is set to zero. The number one means the decision to perform the activity and zero means the non-performance of the activity. At this stage, in order to identify the factors influencing the individual's decision, the Probit Model is used and estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The first step is to create a new variable inverse of the Mills ratio to enter the second step. In other words, this variable is the first and second stage communication bridge.Step 2: In the second stage, the measures affecting the willingness to participate in drought insurance after the decision is made along with the inverse Mills ratio variable are placed in a classical regression model. The dependent variable in the second stage is the amount of garden area likely to be allocated to drought insurance.Reasons to use the Tobit model: Many econometric models face two types of errors, either due to the use of specific observation data or due to the structural features of the models: first, the error due to incorrect sample selection, which usually occurs in using classical regression models, and second, the same error Assuming effective variables in the decision stage and the amount of activity performed after the decision is made (decision and action or intention and action), which usually occurs in regression models with binary and multiple responses. The Tobit model has been developed to prevent the occurrence of these two types of errors in studies.The first error is the error of incorrect sample selection; in the sense that in many econometric models, information is obtained only from observations that have acted on the activity and omits observations that have refused to do that activity. Therefore, these models are not able to assess the reaction of observations that did not act on the independent variable changes. Tobit model (type one) solves this problem in terms of observations that have performed the desired activity as well as other observations. Under these conditions, the effect of changes in independent variables on both the total observations and on the observations of the activity can be calculated separately.The second error means that the factors that influence a person's decision to perform an activity are not necessarily the same as the factors that determine the amount and level of activity desired, and can be two different sets of variables. The Tobit model (type two, Hackett or Hackman two-stage) solves this problem by separating the factors influencing the decision and the amount of activity. Results and DiscussionThe data show that the response of pistachio growers to the reduction of available water in the next 2 and 5 years is that all gardeners will insure their pistachio orchards with a 5% reduction in available water, but in terms of area under cultivation, only 39% Gardeners will increase their arable land in the next 2 years and 33% of gardeners in the next 5 years. The reaction of gardeners who did not have a history of pistachio insurance to accept pistachio insurance and increase or decrease the area under pistachio orchard in exchange for a 5% reduction in available water in the next 2 and 5 years shows that about 51% of gardeners face a 5% reduction in water in 2 And in the next 5 years, they will insure their pistachio orchards, and about 60% of gardeners will increase their cultivation in the next 2 or 5 years in the face of a 5% reduction in available water. The results of the evaluation of gardeners' reaction to the continuation of the horticultural profession in the face of a 5% reduction in available water in the next 2 years will cause 34% of gardeners not to continue this profession and 51% of gardeners will not continue this profession in the next 5 years. In the long run, water shortages can reduce the incentive for gardeners to grow pistachios. The reaction of gardeners to pistachio insurance against the reduction of available water quality shows that only 1.38 percent of the total population in the face of reduced quality of available water reduce the level of their insured garden and about 30% of them faced with declining available water quality, they will increase the level of their insured garden; And the rest of the gardeners (about 68.6%) do not change their insured level in the face of declining water quality.ConclusionAccording to the obtained information, the variables as gardener's age, ownership, relationship between gardener's field of study and agriculture, location, variety of cultivation, existence of insured pistachio garden in the neighborhood, frequency of risk, total water available to each gardener and garden life of each gardener in the first stage (Probit Model) have positive coefficients; which indicates the positive effect of these variables on the probability of willingness to accept pistachio drought insurance. In the second stage (linear regression), the variables of pistachio horticulture history, frequency of risk, garden life and total number of water hours available to gardeners have positive coefficients, which indicate the positive effect of these variables on the dependent variable of the second stage, is the tendency to accept pistachio drought insurance.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
Koohsar Khaledi
Abstract
IntroductionTheoretically in relation to economic growth and methods of calculating value added, the four factors of labor, capital, labor productivity, and capital productivity are considered, and the amount of value added will be the final product of the state and direct performance of these four factors. ...
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IntroductionTheoretically in relation to economic growth and methods of calculating value added, the four factors of labor, capital, labor productivity, and capital productivity are considered, and the amount of value added will be the final product of the state and direct performance of these four factors. Since investment is an available option and has faster execution capability than the change in the quality of agricultural labor and the driver of changes in the productivity of other production factors, it is inevitable to focus on it by statesmen and macro and sector planners to realize the target economic growth in the agricultural sector. With this description, the macroeconomic planners of the agricultural sector have not determined the required amounts of investment, labor and productivity of labor and capital in the agricultural sector to realize the economic growth target in the 7th development plan. The role of investment as the driver of this (realization of the economic growth goal of the 7th development plan years) is not hidden from anyone, and determining the amount of investment required in this process will be very important for the policymaker. The main question of this study is, what is the amount of annual investment needed to realize the economic growth of Iran's agricultural goal in the 7th development plan? For this reason, the present study aims to estimate the amount of investment needed to realize the economic growth of the country's agricultural target (assumed) in the seventh development plan (2024-2028). Materials and MethodsThe current research is analytical-descriptive and with a computational approach, it deals with the estimation of the investment needed to realize the economic growth of the agricultural sector of Iran in the 7th Development Plan (2024-28). The time period considered in this study is 2011-2028. The estimation of the required investment of the agricultural sector in order to realize the economic growth of this sector in the 7th development plan has been done parametrically (algebraically) and by using the capital elasticity in the studies, the increasing ratio of capital to production (ICOR) and the average productivity of the net capital balance. Considering that the target economic growth for economic sectors including the agricultural sector in the 7th Development Plan has not been specified, therefore, in the form of different scenarios, three different economic growths (3.5 percent, 5.5 percent, and 8 percent) as The target (assumed) economic growth for the agricultural sector is considered in the years of the 7th development plan. Results and DiscussionClimate changes and destruction of basic production resources are the most important challenges facing Iran's agriculture. In the 7th Development plan bill, economic growth of 8% is defined for the entire country's economy. In order to avoid over-reliance on basic resources in the agricultural production process and increase its resilience, a sustainable leap in targeted agricultural investment will be the most important choice of the government in the mid-term (7th development plan) and long-term. The aim of this study is to estimate the annual investment required in the agricultural sector in the 7th development plan, and in this regard, three approaches have been used to estimate the amount of annual investment required in the agricultural sector of Iran to achieve the target (assumed) economic growth. Examining the average of different approaches to estimate the annual investment for the target (assumed) value added growth of agriculture showed that according to the assumptions of the study and based on the prices of the base year 2016 (2016=100) to realize the growth of the value added of 3.5% necessary with a growth rate of 4.5%, an average of 183 thousand billion rials will be invested in Iran's agricultural sector annually. These figures will be 6.1% and about 234 thousand billion rials respectively to achieve 5.5% value added growth and 8.2% respectively and about 304 thousand billion rials to achieve 8% value added growth. There is no doubt that in addition to making the necessary investment, the realization of each of the target (assumed) growth of value added in the agricultural sector in the years of the 7th plan, on the one hand, depends on the existence of suitable and stable climatic conditions (as the main prerequisite for the production of agricultural products) and on the other hand, it is not imposing new shocks or crises on the agricultural economy of our country. ConclusionThe destruction of basic resources and climate changes in Iran's agricultural field are taking place in such a way that it has made it difficult to produce agricultural products in a large area of Iran in the field (the need to develop greenhouse crops) and on the other hand, the development of capital in the process of agricultural production (as a supplement or substitute for other production inputs) in order to increase productivity and preserve the limited and deteriorating production resources has made agriculture more necessary than in the past. Past experiences show that changing the financing approach for investing in Iran's agricultural sector is inevitable. Therefore, it is necessary that in the seventh development plan while separating investment facilities and agricultural working capital facilities during the 7th development plan, improving the environment for agricultural investment and the mechanism for transferring savings to this sector, optimal allocating domestic financial resources (National Development Fund, banking system, support fund for The development of investment, micro-agricultural funds, etc.) and foreign financial resources (foreign direct investment) should be planned in such a way that the investment made in the agricultural sector is coordinated and proportionate with the economic growth of the program.
Research Article
Agricultural Economics
SeyedHossein Hashemi Fard; Seyed Mojtaba Moussavi Neghabi; Maryam Oladi
Abstract
IntroductionAgriculture, as one of the most important economic sectors in Iran, has many capabilities and capacities for creating many jobs with minimal investment (Sifelahi, 2021). One of the active fields in agriculture is growing edible mushrooms. Nowadays, edible mushrooms are very popular in most ...
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IntroductionAgriculture, as one of the most important economic sectors in Iran, has many capabilities and capacities for creating many jobs with minimal investment (Sifelahi, 2021). One of the active fields in agriculture is growing edible mushrooms. Nowadays, edible mushrooms are very popular in most countries of the world as a food rich in minerals, vitamins and proteins, and its industrial production can be a source of employment and a good income (Mehboubi, 2015). Understanding customer behavior is a key requirement for the success of any company's marketing and development activities (Etale & Uranta, 2022). In recent years, with the increase in competition between companies active in the field of agriculture, innovation in effective communication with customers has become one of the requirements for the success of these companies. Therefore, the current research aims to study the effect of customer relationship management methods on the organization's performance with regard to the moderating role of innovation capability; which has been done by collecting empirical evidence from a company active in the field of agriculture, the white mushroom production and packaging company in Kashmer city. Materials and MethodsIn terms of the purpose, the current research is considered as applied research and in terms of methodology, it is considered as a survey research. In this research, a questionnaire was used as the main tool for data collection. This questionnaire contains 42 questions with a 5-point Likert scale. To measure the organization's performance, Mann et al. balanced scorecard questionnaire (Mann et al., 1999) including four dimensions of growth and learning, internal process, customer and financial was used. To measure customer relationship management methods, the standard customer relationship management questionnaire of Alem et al. (Alem et al., 2013) and Gabe (2005) including five dimensions was used. The modulating variable of innovation capability has also been measured using Etlai and Akif's organizational innovation questionnaire (Azizi, 2013). The convergent validity of the questionnaire was verified by using the extracted mean criterion, and its differential validity was verified by the Fornell and Locker methods, and Cronbach's alpha coefficient and composite reliability were also used to verify its reliability. The statistical population of this research included the employees of the button mushroom production company in Kashmir city. The questionnaire was distributed to all employees of the company by census method, and 53 usable questionnaires were collected. SPSS version 19 software was used for data analysis and structural equation modeling based on SmartPLS version 3 software was used for path analysis. Results and DiscussionIn order to determine the appropriate type of analysis, the normality of the research variables was examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and based on the test results, the significance value was lower than the error level (0.05) in all cases. As a result, the data distribution is not normal. Therefore, structural equation modeling based on covariance (LIRREL software) cannot be used, therefore PLS structural equations are used for model testing. According to the results of this study, sharing information with customers has a significant positive effect on the performance of the organization with a coefficient of 0.318. Also, this relationship is positively adjusted by the innovation capability variable with a coefficient of 0.622. Based on the results of the research, involving the customer with a coefficient of 0.410 has a significant positive effect on the performance of the organization. The innovation capability variable also moderates this relationship with a coefficient of 0.538. Long-term partnership with customers also has a significant positive effect on the performance of the organization with a coefficient of 0.430. The innovation capability variable moderates this relationship with a coefficient of 0.426. Based on the findings of the research, problem solving jointly with customers has a significant positive effect on the performance of the organization. The coefficient of influence of this relationship is 0.685, which is greater than the coefficient of influence of other components of relationship management with customers and the organization's performance, which shows that it has the greatest impact on the organization's performance. The innovation capability variable moderates the relationship between joint problem solving and organizational performance with a coefficient of 0.541. Customer relationship management based on technology has a significant positive effect on the organization's performance with a coefficient of 0.577, and this relationship is positively and significantly moderated by the innovation capability variable. ConclusionDue to the fact that mushroom cultivation is quick-yielding and leads to high job creation, it has caused mushroom production to be attractive in most regions of Iran today. One of the main concerns of mushroom producers, due to the increase in competition in this field, is the issue of maintaining current customers and attracting new customers, and as a result, improving organizational performance. Therefore, it is suggested that companies increase the positive effect of information sharing on performance by developing and strengthening innovation capabilities. Planning and implementing strategies to train and encourage employees to innovate and create a culture of innovation in the organization can be effective measures. Also, creating an environment where employees can easily share information with each other and with customers can significantly improve the organization's performance. This includes improving information technology and communication within the organization with customers, encouraging cooperation and exchanging information between different units of the organization with the main customers. It is also suggested to use the ideas and suggestions of the customers by involving the customer in the process of production, distribution and development of the new product. When the customer is involved in the joint creation of value, during the interaction process, he will become part of the company, and due to these relationships and interactions, value beyond the consumption of goods and services will be created for the customer, and these customers will be more satisfied. With the increase in competition and customers' awareness of different products and brands in the market, attention to customer's wishes and needs is expanding day by day in organizations. For this reason, it is necessary for the opinions of customers to be effective in the development of the company's future products or services. Considering that for many companies, conducting market research is not very cost-effective and the cost of re-design and production is very high for the company, it is recommended to create two-way relationships between customers and manufacturers and use this relationship to solve problems and improve Take maximum advantage of organizational performance. You can also track the behavior and performance of your customers online and use the Internet technology to customize prices, communications, services and products and attract new customer.