تدوین سناریوهای توسعه پایدار کشاورزی در حوضه آبریز زاینده رود استان اصفهان

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• زهرا زارعی دستگردی ¹
• خلیل کلانتری ²
• علی اسدی ²

¹ گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

² گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

10.22067/jead.2024.89627.1292

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی در کشورهای در حال توسعه نقش مهمی را در پیشبرد توسعه ملی ایفا می‌نماید و سیاستگذاری عقلایی و برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی جهت پیشبرد توسعه پایدار این بخش یکی از دغدغه‌های اصلی کنشگران نهادی ذیربط به شمار می‌رود. در این راستا پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی سناریوهای توسعه پایدار کشاورزی در حوضه آبریز زاینده رود استان اصفهان انجام گرفت. پژوهش حاضر کاربردی، از نوع توصیفی-پیمایشی بود. جامعه آماری خبرگان مرتبط با توسعه کشاورزی در استان بودند. جهت جمع‌آوری داده‎ها از منابع کتابخانه ای، پرسشنامه و مصاحبه استفاده گردید. برای شناسایی مؤلفه‌ها و پیشران‌های اولیه مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار کشاورزی در حوضه آبریز زاینده رود استان اصفهان از روش دلفی و مصاحبه با نخبگان و مسئولین اجرایی استفاده شد و برای انتخاب خبرگان نیز تکنیک گلوله برفی به کار رفت. در نهایت تعداد 8 پیشران کلیدی در راستای تبیین متغیرهای پژوهش در قالبی استراتژیک مورد شناسایی و تفکیک قرار گرفتند. بر این اساس در قسمت مربوط به بیان اولویت‌های پژوهش در دو حالت مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، این 8 عامل کلیدی در اولویت‌های مختلف تکرار شده اند. پرسشنامه‌ها بین 25 نفر از خبرگان توزیع گردید. در این پژوهش برای آینده نگاری توسعه پایدار کشاورزی 5 سناریوی باورکردنی با درنظر گرفتن وضعیت‌های حاصل از عوامل کلیدی و وجه اشتراک و یا تفاوت‌های آنها در دسته‌های سناریوهای مطلوب، ایستا و بحرانی شناسایی و با توجه به نمره کل اثر آنها که بین 85 تا 109 هستند؛ تعداد 2 سناریو محتمل‌ترین سناریوها تشخیص داده شد که یک سناریو مطلوب و یک سناریو بحرانی هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده‌نگاری
• توسعه کشاورزی
• حوضه آبریز زاینده رود
• سناریو نگاری

موضوعات

• توسعه کشاورزی و روستایی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Compilation of Sustainable Agricultural Development Scenarios in Zayandeh-Rud River Watershed- Isfahan Province of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

• Z. Zarei Dastgerdi ¹
• Kh. Kalantari ²
• A. Asadi ²

¹ Agriculture Department, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran

² Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role in promoting national development and rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector are of main concerns of the relevant institutional actors. In this regard, the current research was conducted with the aim of identifying scenarios of sustainable agricultural development in the catchment area of Zayandeh River in Isfahan province. The present research was applied, of descriptive-survey type. The statistical population was experts related to agricultural development in the province. To collect data, library sources, questionnaires and interviews were used. Delphi method and interviews with elites and executives were used to identify the primary components and drivers effective on the sustainable development of agriculture in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province. The snowball technique was used to select the experts. Finally, 8 key drivers were identified and separated in order to explain the research variables in a strategic format. Based on this, in the section related to the expression of research priorities in two direct and indirect modes, these 8 key factors have been repeated in different priorities. Questionnaires were distributed among 25 experts. In this study, five plausible scenarios were identified for forecasting the future of sustainable agricultural development by considering potential outcomes based on key factors and their similarities or differences across the categories of favorable, static, and critical scenarios. Based on their total scores, which range from 85 to 109, two scenarios were identified as the most likely: one favorable scenario and one critical scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Agricultural development
• Foresight
• Scenario planning
• Zayandeh-Rud watershed

©2024 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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