نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 هیات عامی دانشگاه پیام نور
2 هیات علمی دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
بخش کشاورزی در کشورهای در حال توسعه نقش مهمی را در پیشبرد توسعه ملی ایفا می نماید و سیاستگذاری عقلایی و برنامه ریزی راهبردی جهت پیشبرد توسعه پایدار این بخش یکی از دغدغه های اصلی کنشگران نهادی ذیربط به شمار می رود. در این راستا پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی سناریوهای توسعه پایدار کشاورزی در حوضه آبریز زاینده رود استان اصفهان انجام گرفت. پژوهش حاضر کاربردی، از نوع توصیفی-پیمایشی بود. جامعه آماری خبرگان مرتبط با توسعه کشاورزی در استان بودند. جهت جمع آوری داده ها از منابع کتابخانه ای، پرسشنامه و مصاحبه استفاده گردید. برای شناسایی مؤلفه‌ها و پیشران‌های اولیه مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار کشاورزی در حوضه آبریز زاینده رود استان اصفهان از روش دلفی و مصاحبه با نخبگان و مسئولین اجرایی استفاده شد و برای انتخاب خبرگان نیز تکنیک گلوله برفی به کار رفت. در نهایت تعداد 8 پیشران کلیدی در راستای تبیین متغیرهای پژوهش در قالبی استراتژیک مورد شناسایی و تفکیک قرار گرفتند. بر این اساس در قسمت مربوط به بیان اولویت های پژوهش در دو حالت مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، این 8 عامل کلیدی در اولویت های مختلف تکرار شده اند. پرسشنامه ها بین 25 نفر از خبرگان توزیع گردید. در این پژوهش برای آینده نگاری توسعه پایدار کشاورزی 5 سناریوی باورکردنی با درنظر گرفتن وضعیت های حاصل از عوامل کلیدی و وجه اشتراک و یا تفاوت های آنها در دسته های سناریوی های مطلوب، ایستا و بحرانی شناسایی و با توجه به نمره کل اثر آنها که بین 85 تا 109 هستند؛ تعداد 2 سناریو محتمل ترین سناریوها تشخیص داده شد که یک سناریو مطلوب و یک سناریو بحرانی هستند.
واژگان کلیدی: آینده نگاری، توسعه کشاورزی، حوضه آبریز زاینده رود، سناریو نگاری
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Compilation of Sustainable Agricultural Development Scenarios in Zayandeh River Watershed of Isfahan Province
نویسندگان [English]
- zahra zareidastgerdi 1
- khalil kalantari 2
- ali asadi 2
1 Faculty of Payam Noor University
2 Faculty of Tehran University
چکیده [English]
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Introduction
The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role in promoting national development And rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector is one of the main concerns of the relevant institutional activists. On the one hand, the complexity of human changes and variables and the unexpectedness of environmental factors and the global economy affecting agricultural activities on the one hand and the strategic importance of food security and combating poverty on the other hand, have made the sustainable development of agriculture face deep and widespread challenges. Therefore, it is necessary that the strategies developed to deal with these issues are based on comprehensive and optimal analyzes that examine the main dimensions of the agriculture and food sector in an integrated manner. Considering the ever-increasing changes and transformations, relying on traditional planning methods is no longer the answer, and the heavy shadow of uncertainties and the emergence of discontinuous and surprising events changes the situation in such a way that planning seems to be a difficult matter. The lack of ability to predict the future as well as the complications caused by the changes have caused the emerging knowledge of foresight to enter the activities of planning and predicting developments.
Materials and Methods
In terms of its nature, the present research was an applied research, and in terms of the method, it was a descriptive-survey type. The statistical population of this research was: 1- Managers and entrepreneurs of the agricultural sector in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province; 2- Academic researchers and professors active in the agricultural sector in the catchment area of Zayandeh River in Isfahan province; 3- Policymakers and managers active in the process of policymaking and planning of agricultural development in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province which were selected as snowball sampling. In order to collect data, in addition to using library resources, researcher-made questionnaires and interviews were used. For the scenario planning section of sustainable agricultural development, a matrix with dimensions of 8x8 was used and provided to the experts of the agricultural sector using the results of interviews with experts and Delphi questionnaire.
Results and Discussion
According to the effect of one factor on other related factors, 5 plausible scenarios were identified by considering possible situations resulting from key factors and their commonalities or differences in the categories of favorable, static and critical scenarios. Scenario number 5 is a favorable scenario. In this scenario, all states of agents are favorable. In total, these scenarios have 8 favorable situations. Scenario number 4 is a static scenario. In this scenario, there are 5 static states, 3 unfavorable states. Scenarios number 1 to 3 are critical scenarios. From the total of 24 situations in these scenarios; 17 critical situations 7 situations have a static situation and maintain the status quo. Among the 5 believable scenarios and software outputs and according to their total impact score, which are between 85 and 109; 2 scenarios are the most likely scenarios. These scenarios have a total effect score of 87 to 109, of which 1 is favorable and 1 is critical.
Conclusion
Since sustainable production is the most important task in the field of agriculture, therefore, in sustainable production, the agricultural products needed by the society should be produced to the extent that the relative advantage of each province allows. And the biggest obstacle in this path is the water problem. Considering that agriculture is exposed to many problems such as climate change, agricultural products market, political decisions, It is necessary to formulate a strategic plan in this field so that some of these variables remain constant and based on other variables, production can be continued better. Therefore, farming in controlled environments such as greenhouses is one of the ways to control the factors involved in agriculture, which can control water consumption and other factors and increase the amount of production.
Keywords: foresight, scenario planning, agricultural development, Zayandeh Rood watershed
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
Compilation of sustainable agricultural development scenarios in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- : foresight
- scenario planning
- agricultural development
- Zayandeh Rood watershed
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