تحلیل و بررسی قرارداد اختیار معامله و قیمت گذاری اوراق اختیار معامله در محصولات کشاورزی

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه زابل

2 گروه اقتصادکشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

3 گروه حقوق ,دانشگاه زابل-

4 دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

چکیده

ریسک جزو لاینفک در تولید و فروش محصولات کشاورزی است. به علت طبیعت فعالیت های تولید محصولات کشاورزی، افراد فعال در این عرصه ازجمله کشاورزان، بازرگانان و بنگاه های بازاریابی مواد غذایی دچار نوسان های غیرقابل‌ پیش‌بینی قیمت هستند. شرکت های تبدیل فرآورده محصولات کشاورزی و صنایع وابسته نیز با نوسان قیمت نهاده کشاورزی تحت عنوان ریسک قیمت مواجه هستند. در شرایط وجود نوسان های غیرقابل‌پیش‌بینی قیمت، امکان تصمیم گیری درست کاهش می یابد. بهترین ابزار اقتصادی و حقوقی در دسترس برای کنترل و مدیریت ریسک قیمتی، استفاده از بازارهای آتی5 و قرارداد اختیار معامله6 است. پرواضح است در انعقاد هر قراردادی، تعین قیمت رکن اصلی محسوب می‌شود بنابراین ارائه قیمت منصفانه برای اوراق اختیار معامله بسیار حائز اهمیت خواهد بود. در مطالعه ی حاضر بعد از تشکیل بازار فرضی اختیار معامله برای محصول کلزا به قیمت گذاری اوراق اختیار معامله7، پرداخت‌شده است. برای تحقق این هدف، از رهیافت مدل بلک -شولز8 تحت 10 سناریوی قیمت اعمال 5، 10، 15، 20 درصد بالاتر و 5، 10، 15، 20 درصد پایین‌تر و همچنین برابر باقیمت جاری، مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج بیانگر این مهم بود که با افزایش قیمت اعمال تحت سناریوهای مذکور، قیمت اختیار خرید کاهش و قیمت اختیار فروش نیز افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین کشاورزان، تجار و کارخانجات تبدیل فرآورده کشاورزی، با درجه ریسک پذیری مختلف می توانند متناسب با نیازهای خود برای پوشش ریسک، در این بازارها شرکت نمایند. برای حل مدل مذکور از محیط نرم‌افزاری اکسل 2010 و DeriveaGem 1.5استفاده گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

نویسندگان [English]

  • H. Tamidy 1
  • H. Mohammadi 2
  • D. Seify Gharhitaq 3
  • V. Dehbashi 4
1 zabol univercity
2 University of Zabo
3 University of Zabol
4 University of Zabol
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry.
Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered:
1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset
2 -large underlying asset cash market
3- The possibility of standardizing the underlying asset
4- Impossibility of creating cross supply of the underlying asset
In addition, after the introduction of the model parameters, we offers method calculating of the volatility (standard deviation) price with using historical data (time series). Parameters of Blk- Scholes model are introduced and option contract of selected product will pricing. After effect of the rise and fall agreement prices (in the form of 9-defined scenario) on the price of put option and sales option are studied.
In this study, after forming the hypothetical option market for the Canola, option pricing is done. In this section, the criteria for selecting an appropriate asset base is expressed for option contract. The Black–Scholes model is introduced for the valuation of call option and European put option contract. After introducing the model parameters, the calculation of volatility (standard deviation) of price using historical data (time series) is presented .To achieve this aim, the Black – Scholes model was used under 9 strike price scenario of 5, 10, 15, 20 percent above; 5, 10, 15, and 20 percent lower and finally equal to current prices. This model was run in Excel 2010 and Derivea gem 1.5.
Results and Discussion: The results showed 43% price volatility for canola that reflects uncertainty in its price. In the next stage of pricing, the purchase and sale of the selected product was done under the nine price scenarios. The results showed that the highest authority to purchase option was for scenario K1 and the highest buy option was for the K9 scenario. The least expensive buy option is K9 and the least expensive sell option is K1.
Conclusion: The results show that the increase of strike price under these scenarios leads to a decrease of call option price and decrease of put option price. In addition, the farmers, businesspersons and agricultural products transforming factories with a different degree of risk disclosure can participate in these markets proportional to their needs for covering the risk
Farmers with various degrees of risk involved in this market Thus , people with a higher risk, are seeking the to pay less right of option and in turn, receive less coverage. Similarly, farmers with less risk-averse, demand pay to higher right of options for themselves cover against the risk of price in future.

Keywords: Option Market, Call Options, Put Options, Canola

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Option Market
  • Call Options
  • Put Options
  • Canola
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