Agricultural Economics
S.M.J. Esfahani; E. Barikani
Abstract
IntroductionMany governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major ...
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IntroductionMany governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major problem, especially in developing countries. On the one hand, the government aims to boost food production by offering agricultural subsidies. On the other hand, the excessive use of chemical inputs due to these subsidies has raised concerns about environmental pollution. Therefore, one of the most significant global challenges is to balance agricultural production to meet the increasing demand of the growing population while maintaining the quality of the environment. Any changes in government support policies for the agricultural sector can lead to fluctuations in input and product prices, directly impacting farmers' profits. As a result, these changes can influence cultivation patterns and the use of agricultural inputs, ultimately affecting the environment. Therefore, before implementing any policy changes, it is crucial to assess both the economic and environmental impacts and make informed decisions based on these considerations.Materials and MethodsThis study uses positive mathematical programming (PMP) on the environmental impact of chemical fertilizers’ subsidies change and transfer subsidies to crops in Zarandieh city of Markazi province. The necessary information was collected through the statistical sources of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad for the crop year 2023 for the three crops including irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, and silage corn, which occupies more than 85 percent of the cultivated area of this region. At the first stage, the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by each product was calculated, and then the environmental impact of different subsidy policies was investigated. To calculate the greenhouse gas emissions, the emission coefficient of each of the inputs that have been cited in various studies was used. To model and analyze the data, positive mathematical programming with the cost function approach was used. Excel and GAMS software has been used to run the models.Results and DiscussionThe results of the study showed that the highest amount of greenhouse gas emissions is related to corn silage, and electricity, diesel, and chemical fertilizers have the largest share of the greenhouse gas emissions. The simulation results for the region’s cultivation patterns, considering scenarios where only chemical fertilizers—N-fertilizer, P-fertilizer, and K-fertilizer—were used separately and together with increases of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, indicate that as input prices rise, both the cultivated area and farmers' income decrease. Additionally, increasing the price of P-fertilizer has a greater potential to reduce environmental impact compared to raising the price of other chemical fertilizers.To assess the environmental impact of reallocating subsidies from chemical inputs to agricultural products, a scenario was simulated in which the price of chemical inputs increased by 100%, while product prices rose by 5% and 10%, respectively. The model results revealed that the lowest environmental impact per hectare of crop production occurs when chemical fertilizer prices increase by 100% and product prices rise by 5%.Based on these findings, reallocating subsidies to agricultural products rather than production inputs appears to yield more favorable environmental outcomes. In other words, when the subsidy is allocated to the product instead of chemical inputs, the environmental impact of crop production in this area would be reduced and the amount of emissions per hectare of farm or million Tomans of gross profit would be less compared to other situations.ConclusionIt is necessary to support the agricultural sector to boost food production but these supports should be done with the least environmental impact. According to the findings of this study, if subsidies are given to agricultural products instead of inputs, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced while maintaining the area of crops and the amount of gross profit of farmers. The policy of setting a guaranteed price for basic agricultural products in Iran can be a suitable tool to realize this. In other words, transferring the credits allocated for purchasing chemical fertilizers to the guaranteed purchase of agricultural products will be an effective step in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and their impact, as well as maintaining the country's food security.
Agricultural Economics
W. Qelich
Abstract
IntroductionGlobal environmental changes have become a significant challenge for humanity, highlighting the need for robust support for environmental projects across all dimensions, including financial and economic. Integrating ethics and human and social values with environmental concerns in economic ...
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IntroductionGlobal environmental changes have become a significant challenge for humanity, highlighting the need for robust support for environmental projects across all dimensions, including financial and economic. Integrating ethics and human and social values with environmental concerns in economic activities creates a new approach for sectors such as banking, manufacturing, industry, and insurance, reshaping their operations in response to these challenges. It is necessary to put aside the purely market-oriented approaches focused on the rapid development of financial markets at any cost, so that other policies with greater health can replace them. Meanwhile, the concept called "green banking" is one of the most important examples of this support. This kind of banking, as an important part of ethical banking, plays a special role in protecting the environment. With a comprehensive explanation of green banking and by using theoretical studies and international experiences and obtaining opinions from relevant experts and experts, this research identified the factors affecting the trend of the country's banking network towards green banking by using the Delphi method, questionnaire analysis and Friedman's test. Materials and MethodsThe current research is completely practical in terms of its purpose and qualitative and descriptive-analytical in terms of implementation method. First, by using the Delphi method, the factors affecting the tendency of the banking to implement green banking are identified, and then the relevant data is collected using a questionnaire. In the following, the known factors are ranked and prioritized with Friedman's test. The statistical population of this research was all managers and banking experts in Tehran. In the Delphi method, a standard statistical sample typically ranges from 10 to 30 questionnaires, with 28 initially considered for this research. After follow-up, 23 questionnaires were completed and included in the analysis. Additionally, 142 questionnaires were prepared and collected for Friedman's test implementation. At this stage, a Likert scale was used for the research questions, scored by managers, branch heads, and banking experts. A combined method has been used in the collection of research statistical data. At first, the concepts of green banking and ethical banking have been explained by using the library method and conducting free theoretical and field studies. In the following, with the Delphi technique and obtaining the opinions of relevant experts and experts, the most important factors affecting the tendency of the banking network to implement green banking have been calculated. In the following, the remaining important factors have been added to the set of factors with the method of intellectual generation. Results and DiscussionBased on the results of the research, four main economic, structural, managerial and social criteria were identified in order to influence this tendency. In the sub-criteria section, the high inflation rate, the relative cheapness of energy prices and the presence of profitable parallel markets along with green deposits are mentioned as the most important reasons for the low tendency towards green banking. Also, the laws and regulations and the legal system, the recruitment system, the promotion and encouragement of bank managers and employees, the central bank's supervisory system, the senior managers' attitudes towards environmental issues, corporate governance, the bank's internal supervision, the attention to green banking in the selection and decision Customers, society's attitude towards environmental issues and the culture of demand among the most important sub-criteria affecting the trend of the Iranian banking towards green banking have been evaluated and introduced. ConclusionThis research tried to identify and analyze the factors affecting the tendency of Iranian banking network towards green banking with a more comprehensive explanation of green banking and by using theoretical studies and international experiences and obtaining opinions from relevant experts and experts. Based on the research results, four main structural, economic, managerial and social factors influencing this trend were identified. Surveys showed that in the first place, economic factors were more effective than other factors in the trend of the banking towards green banking. Among the study factors categories, structural, managerial and social factors have the most influence on the trend of the country's banking network towards green banking. It is suggested that for the greater desire and tendency of the banking to implement and realize green banking, it is necessary to improve the economic components with the aim of more stabilization, inflation control, strengthening of supervisory dimensions and balance sheet reform of the banking network. Also, reforming the legal system in the supervision and support of green bankers, reforming the incentive and recruitment system, strengthening the attitude of senior bank managers and the general public to the necessity of protecting the environment, as well as reviewing the frameworks and processes of corporate governance in banks with a green perspective to encourage Iranian banking, is necessary towards green banking. In the meantime, undoubtedly the role of the central bank as the supervisory body and upstream regulatory body in reforming the general structures of the banking system and improving the management situation of the public sector of the banking network can be useful and effective in increasing the tendency of banks to establish green banking and comply with its criteria.
Agricultural Economics
S. Kalhori; L. Abolhasani; M. Sabouhi; M. Sarkhosh
Abstract
IntroductionGiven the rapid process of industrialization, expansion of agriculture, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and the intensification of climatic conditions, air quality has rapidly deteriorated in recent years. One of the most important issues and challenges facing the world today is air pollution, ...
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IntroductionGiven the rapid process of industrialization, expansion of agriculture, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and the intensification of climatic conditions, air quality has rapidly deteriorated in recent years. One of the most important issues and challenges facing the world today is air pollution, particularly PM2.5 pollution. This problem has evolved into one of the most complex and serious dilemmas affecting the lives of people worldwide. Exposure to high levels of air pollution has negative health implications. The present study aims to measure the willingness to pay of Mashhad city residents for the improvement of PM2.5 pollution and identify the factors influencing this willingness to pay. Materials and MethodsThis study used contingent valuation and the multiple-bound discrete choice model to calculate individuals' willingness to pay. The research focused on the certainty level of "definitely yes" and generated 13 different proposals ranging from 10,000 Toman to 200,000 Toman. The ordered logit regression model was employed to analyze the factors influencing the willingness of Mashhad citizens to pay for air quality improvement. The study collected 343 questionnaires from Mashhad city residents, considering variables such as education level, age, gender, marital status, family size, presence of children, chronic respiratory diseases and individuals' income. The dependent variable was the public's willingness to pay for improving air quality regarding PM2.5. Results and DiscussionThe study found that a significant portion of respondents were willing to pay for air quality improvement. About 22.45% were willing to pay less than 10,000 Toman, 60.06% were willing to pay between 45,000 and 58,000 Toman, 5.83% were willing to pay between 95,000 and 120,000 Toman, and 11.66% were willing to pay between 155,000 and 200,000 Toman. The average willingness to pay for PM2.5 pollutant improvement in Mashhad was estimated to be 55,488 Toman. Education, age, respiratory diseases, income, and family size were found to affect willingness to pay. Conclusion Improving air quality and reducing pollution requires costly efforts and collaboration from society. This research examines individuals' willingness to financially contribute to air quality enhancement. Factors influencing their willingness to pay are also studied. Based on the findings, it is recommended that the government and municipal authorities impose taxes and levies on polluting sectors, considering the calculated value of air pollution and its sources. Educational programs tailored to diverse educational backgrounds, along with technology and social media, can raise environmental awareness among youth. Developing cost-effective public transportation systems and providing discounts for low-income individuals can also help reduce pollution. Financial programs and incentives for cleaner resources are another solution for improving air quality.
Agricultural Economics
H. Asgari; M. Pouralimardan
Abstract
IntroductionConsidering the current process of destruction of natural resources in the country and the problems faced by the present and future generations, the measures taken in the field of conservation and restoration and development of natural resources do not seem to be enough. Although, to solve ...
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IntroductionConsidering the current process of destruction of natural resources in the country and the problems faced by the present and future generations, the measures taken in the field of conservation and restoration and development of natural resources do not seem to be enough. Although, to solve these problems, the role of the government as a planner and supporter of natural resources projects is clear and important (Arayesh & Farajilah Hosseini, 2010). However, the projects designed to conserve natural resources are implemented based on people's participation. In general, people's participation in projects in the field of natural resources protection can take place in various fields. The most important of these issues have been considered in the behavioral examples of the Helpers of Nature project which can be including planting seedlings, people's participation in times of crisis such as fire, protection of forests, contributing to environmental protection associations, joining environmental associations, waste management in terms of separation and volume, joining the natural resources projects through the organization's systems, introducing people to the natural resources organization in the form of nature's helper, paying the green tax and etc (Natural resources & watershed management organization-I.R of IRAN, 2023). However it is the question as how to attract people's participation in the mentioned issues requires tools that can influence human behavior. Behavioral economics, as a new scientific field of economic sciences, can measure and analyze the impact of intentions, beliefs, and motivations on human behavior and decisions, and based on this, it can also provide policy tools (Asgari et al., 2021). For this reason, it can influence people's behavior to participate in the conservation of natural resources using behavioral economics approach. Therefore, to realize the goal of attracting people's participation, the current study considers to examine nudges and the effectiveness of nudges on people's behavior using behavioral economics approach Materials and MethodsThe sampling method of the research is convenience sampling. The number of samples is 213 people using the online questionnaire in two separate groups. This study is a quasi-experimental design and its type is a comparison between two groups. The number of the control group includes 108 people and the number of the treatment group includes 105 people. The control and treatment groups were independent. Each of the groups had completely common questions and response criteria. In this study, the control and treatment groups did not receive any training, but only the treatment group was given additional information about cognitive errors along with related questions. First, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test is used to check and compare the ratings regarding supplementary information as well as the answers of people in the two groups. The ordered probit regression is used to analyze the relationship between ordinal or ranked dependent variables related to natural resource protection behavior and independent treatment (nudge) variables and other variables. For the relative dependent variables (the time of registration of cooperation request and the number of people introduced as a nature helper), the ordinary least square regression is used to analyze the effect of the treatment binary variable on the people's behavior in the field of natural resources conservation Results and DiscussionThis study results showed that out of 19 nudges, 14 nudges includes; Normative default, time limit, anchor and exemplify, carrot and stick, personalization, decoy effect, authority confirmation bias, bandwagon effect, present bias, automatic recommendation, halo effect and ownership effect (1) and (2) and (3) had a significant impact on these people's behavior, respectively, the number of seedlings, the time of registering a request for cooperation, participation in firefighting, waste production, the number of members introduced as a nature’s helper, choosing tasks, membership in associations, membership in a special association, recycling, people's action preferences for forest protection, the percentage of perceived success for projects, willingness to spend taxes to beautify one's neighborhood, willingness to spend taxes to protect forests in one's area, and applying zoning to protect forests. The direction of influence in all nudges (except for the normative default and time limit) on people's behavior has been positive and significant. The marginal effects also showed that all nudges had the positive effect (with ordinal or ranked dependent variable) on the selection of the target option(s) in the treatment group compared to the control group. The carrot and stick policy had no significant effect on the ordinal variable of waste production, but the effect of this nudge on dummy variable of waste production was significant, This means that this nudge has had a positive and significant effect on maintaining the existing situation (garbage collection every day of the week) and reducing the amount of garbage (choosing 20 kg of garbage and less per week). The normative default and the time limit had a negative and significant effect (respectively) on the number of seedlings and the registration time of cooperation requests for planting seedlings. These negative effects have also confirmed the positive effect of nudging on people's behavior. Although the normative default resulted in fewer seedlings being planted by individuals, this occurred because the default was set at a minimal level and individuals were significantly more inclined to follow the default. The nudge of the time limit also led to a reduction in the time to register cooperation requests by individuals, so that people tended to register their request faster. ConclusionAccording to the results of this research, to attract the people's participation in the conservation of natural resources, these following should be considered: defaults, low-cost anchors, clear examples, incentives and punishments, highlight individual performance through personalization, using existing privileges for more cooperation, confirming people's sovereignty, presenting reports during performance, immediate rewards, making SMS and telephone systems available to compensate for people's lack of action, considering time limits for registering people in programs and projects, providing success reports to join people in an action, applying people's ownership of the green tax to further encourage them to pay taxes, allocating each zone to an environmental association for forests protection.
Agricultural Economics
A. Mirzaei; H. Azarm
Abstract
This study examined the correlation between economic growth and the impact on the environment, specifically focusing on the concept of environmental sustainability. The World Bank's Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) data is utilized in this study to gauge the strain on the environment, specifically through ...
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This study examined the correlation between economic growth and the impact on the environment, specifically focusing on the concept of environmental sustainability. The World Bank's Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) data is utilized in this study to gauge the strain on the environment, specifically through the measurement of natural disinvestment. This measurement encompasses the cumulative effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) damage, as well as depletions in minerals, energy, and forest resources. This study uses panel data with respect to the endogeneity of explanatory variables to estimate the real effect of per capita income and the other variables on environmental pressure. In this regard, employing the panel Fixed-Effects Instrumental Variable (IV) methodology, the data from 213 countries have been used in the period from 1990 to 2018. Through regression analysis, it has been discovered that there is a direct correlation between income and the impact on the environment in developing nations. However, this relationship is notably more pronounced in low-income countries compared to high-income countries. Additionally, the study reveals that trade expansion contributes to an increase in environmental pressure across all groups of countries. An increase in the school enrolment rate can affect the environment in developed and high-income developing countries. Moreover, the variable effect of capital openness on environmental pressure was estimated to be positive for developed and high-income countries. However, this effect was found to be negative for low-income countries. Finally, the result showed that developing countries should improve their legal structure and also reduce the bureaucracy and complexity of the laws.
Agricultural Economics
A. Keshavarz; Z. Farajzadeh
Abstract
In recent decades, the significance of the issue of climate change has escalated due to its intensified impacts, potentially diminishing or halting economic growth, particularly in developing countries and vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. Climate change may be considered the most important and ...
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In recent decades, the significance of the issue of climate change has escalated due to its intensified impacts, potentially diminishing or halting economic growth, particularly in developing countries and vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. Climate change may be considered the most important and complex human challenge. Among the economic effects, trade variables have been examined inadequately. Accordingly, the focus of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the export and import of agricultural products in Iran over a forty-year horizon, which was carried out using a dynamic input-output model. This study uses scenarios of temperature anomaly to examine the impact of climate change on different sectors of Iran’s economy. The findings indicate that climate change has a significant impact on the growth of both exports and imports of agricultural products. Under normal conditions without climate change, the average annual growth rate of agricultural product imports is 2.7 percent. However, this rate decreases to 1-1.8 percent when different climate change scenarios are taken into account. Regarding the exports, the corresponding value is 2.75 percent, expected to be reduced to 0.55-1.8 percent. In addition, it was found that agricultural trade will be dominated by cereals import. Also, the total trade of the Iranian economy will change in favor of non-agricultural commodities
Agricultural Economics
M. Mardani Najafabadi; A. Abdeshahi; E. Ahani
Abstract
IntroductionThe relationship between economic development and the environment is known as one of the most important issues facing societies. If in the context of sustainable development, economic and environmental activities are considered together, the environment and economic development are two complementary ...
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IntroductionThe relationship between economic development and the environment is known as one of the most important issues facing societies. If in the context of sustainable development, economic and environmental activities are considered together, the environment and economic development are two complementary factors and, as a result, it will lead to ecological balance. In this case, economic activities will not disturb this balance. Presently, the imperative of safeguarding the environment and attaining sustainable development has ascended to a prominent position on the agendas of diverse societies, Iran included. This commitment is underscored by the execution of comprehensive economic, social, and cultural initiatives aimed at fostering long-term ecological resilience and balanced societal progress. Therefore, to preserve the environment and meet the goals of sustainable development, as well as to guide and rationally manage plans and projects, especially in the agricultural sector, serious measures should be taken. Therefore, this study was carried out to evaluate the operational, environmental, and eco-efficiency of the major agricultural products of the irrigation and drainage networks of Gotvand.The irrigation and drainage network of Gotvand is located in the southwest of Iran in Khuzestan province. This network is designed to irrigate lands located in three regions of Gotvand, Aghili, and Dimcheh, enclosed between two rivers, Karun and Lor. According to the official statistics of government organizations, the consumption of fertilizers and chemical poisons in the lands covered by this network is 3.6 times the average limit in Iran. The excess irrigation water in this network is returned to the rivers by the built-in drains and causes water pollution downstream of the network. Therefore, considering that environmental protection is one of the most important aspects of sustainable development, it is very important to investigate the effects of the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers in agriculture and to introduce solutions to improve the efficiency of the environment in the study area. Materials and MethodsEco-efficiency includes operational and environmental impacts, which are presented as the ratio of the weighted sum of outputs to the weighted sum of inputs (operational inputs + environmental inputs). However, since agricultural activities are carried out in uncertain environmental conditions, there is uncertainty regarding inputs and outputs. The uncertainty in some of the effective input and output parameters in the ranking of networks, and as a result, the inaccuracy of the model calculation results, and the need to pay attention to the use of uncertainty models, make it more obvious. Therefore, in the present study, to include the conditions of uncertainty and risk, the robust data envelopment analysis (RDEA) model was used, which is one of the most powerful and useful models in conditions of uncertainty. The required data were collected by completing a questionnaire of the Gotvand, Aghili, and Dimche regions using a simple random sampling method in 2019. Results and DiscussionThe alfalfa producers in the Gotvand region assigned the highest environmental and Eco-efficiency by obtaining points in the range of 81 to 89 percent and 90 to 96 percent, respectively. The rice crop in the Aghili region had the highest types of operational efficiency based on different levels of deviation probability in the range of 77-87%, environmental efficiency in the range of 80-90%, and environmental-economic efficiency in the range of 87-95%. Dimanche sugarcane region has the highest average of efficiency types for different levels of deviation probability by obtaining points in the range of 78 to 90, 80 to 89, and 87 to 95 respectively for operational, environmental, and Eco-efficiency. Comparing the results of technical efficiency with environmental efficiency shows the lack of attention and skill of farmers in the correct and optimal use of production inputs. Therefore, it is necessary to hold educational and promotional classes to empower farmers to improve production methods and optimal consumption of inputs to improve farmers' income and increase their profits. Given that a substantial portion of energy consumption within the agricultural sector is attributed to fuels and diesel, optimizing energy usage and promoting the adoption of newer, less polluting energy sources emerge as crucial imperatives. Enhancing environmental efficiency in this context involves a strategic focus on reducing reliance on traditional, environmentally taxing energy forms in favor of more sustainable alternatives. ConclusionThe average operating efficiency in all different probability levels for the studied products in Goutvand , Aghili, and Dimche areas, except for beans in the Gatund area, was estimated to be lower than the average environmental efficiency. This shows the lack of ability and skill of farmers to produce a certain product with the lowest amount of input, while the farmers of these areas pay great attention and care to environmental issues.
Agricultural Economics
M. Dekamin; K. Kheiralipour
Abstract
IntroductionGrape (Vitis vinifera L.) is one of the most important agricultural products in the Mediterranean. Today, grapes are grown in a large area of the world's gardens. The world production of grapes was about 77.8 million tons in 2018, of which 1.3 million tons were converted into raisins. According ...
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IntroductionGrape (Vitis vinifera L.) is one of the most important agricultural products in the Mediterranean. Today, grapes are grown in a large area of the world's gardens. The world production of grapes was about 77.8 million tons in 2018, of which 1.3 million tons were converted into raisins. According to the latest data of FAO, Iran has an annual production of 24.45 million tons of grapes in an area of 213 thousand hectares, accounting for 3% of the world's grape production. The average yield per hectare of vineyard is reported to be 15.5 tons. The purpose of this study is to determine hot spots in terms of energy and cost in the production of Malayer grapes with the approach of material and energy flow costing (MEFCA). The primary focus of material and energy flow cost accounting is on waste (waste of energy, materials and potential human capacity). Materials and MethodsMaterial flow cost accounting was introduced in the late 1990s in Augsburg, Germany as a tool for green productivity management. This is known as a tool to increase productivity by reducing the use of materials, energy and human resources. Unlike life cycle assessment, which only weighs the environmental impacts of production and does not provide a solution for simultaneously reducing environmental impacts and increasing economic profit, material flow costing is recognized as an efficient tool for managing resources, wastes, and environmental impacts, and has covered the shortcomings of life cycle assessment. Material flow cost accounting helps to discover hidden costs and waste by objectifying the flow of materials in the production process. Based on ISO 14051 material flow analysis occurs in quantitative centers (QCs). In general, each quantitative center divides the production process into several parts. The basis of material flow and energy costing is material flow balance. This means that the inputs must be the same as the outputs. Based on this balance, positive inputs (i.e. consumable inputs) and positive outputs (i.e. product performance) and negative outputs (i.e. wastes and emissions during production) should be equal. The primary focus of material and energy flow costing is on waste (e.g. waste of energy, materials and potential human capacity). Allocation of costs to positive and negative products in each quantitative center is done in the following way:- Material cost (including raw and industrial materials used in the production process)- Energy costs (including electricity or buying diesel fuel)- System costs (including labor costs, transportation costs and system maintenance)- Waste cost (including waste management costs)The system boundary included the background processes that the farmer was directly involved in using and managing. Grape data was collected in the crop year of 2020-2021 from Malayer vineyards. Results and DiscussionBased on the results of the study, the average energy input including renewable, non-renewable, direct and indirect energy for grape production was 42234 MJ ha-1. The negative energy resulting from the wastage of chemical fertilizers, grapes, irrigation water and pesticides was 28650 MJ ha-1. The total positive output energy was calculated as 296180 MJ ha-1. Nitrogen fertilizer with 27% and animal manure with 19% had the largest share in input energy for grape production. In terms of negative energy, grape waste accounted for the largest share with 82% and the Irrigation water wastage was the next with 16%. Energy indices including energy efficiency (6.33), energy productivity (0.59) kgMJ-1), energy intensity (1.68 MJkg-1) and net energy gain (1225295 MJha-1) were calculated for grape production. The cost of grape production per hectare was $2,779. The highest input costs were related to labor and irrigation water, which cost the farmer 1644 and 680 dollars per hectare, respectively. The calculated negative production in grape production was equal to 2560 dollars per hectare. The main negative production in grape was related to wastage of grapes and irrigation water, which brought hidden costs of 2108 and 442 dollars to the farmer, respectively. The economic indicators of gross income (13954 $ha-1) and cost-benefit ratio (4.5) were calculated. ConclusionTransitioning from flood irrigation to drip irrigation is anticipated to enhance irrigation efficiency by 50%, resulting in an incremental addition of $221 to the farmer's income while concurrently reducing labor costs. Additionally, emphasizing training for workers can prove pivotal in minimizing grape yield wastage within the region.
Agricultural Economics
S.E. Alavi; M. Mohammadi
Abstract
Environment quality and its determinants are one of the main challenges of the present and future of humanity and sustainable development is interpreted in the direction of preserving and improving the environment. In recent years, many studies have been conducted on the factors affecting environmental ...
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Environment quality and its determinants are one of the main challenges of the present and future of humanity and sustainable development is interpreted in the direction of preserving and improving the environment. In recent years, many studies have been conducted on the factors affecting environmental quality. One of the main topics that have been less considered in the related studies is the impact of governance on the quality of the environment. In this study, the impact of good governance components, including economic freedom, trade freedom, and political freedom, on the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) and its sub-indices including environmental health, ecosystem vitality, and climate change is investigated. The data required for statistical analysis are related to Middle East and North Africa region countries and Turkiye (MENAT) during 2000-2021. The panel data method was used to estimate the model and examine the relationship between the variables. The findings show that there is a positive and significant relationship between economic freedom and political freedom with the environmental performance index (EPI), and there is no significant relationship between trade freedom and EPI. In addition, the study found that economic freedom had a detrimental effect on ecosystem vitality and climate change, leading to negative impacts in these areas. However, it had a positive impact on environmental health, indicating that it contributed positively to this aspect. On the other hand, political freedom was observed to have a positive effect on the vitality of the ecosystem and climate change. However, it did not have a significant impact on the overall health of the environment, suggesting that its influence was more prominent in specific areas related to ecosystem vitality and climate change. The result of this research showed that economic freedom has led to more investment in the oil and gas sector of MENA countries, and therefore wastewater and gas emissions have had a negative impact on the vitality of the environment and climate change, but with the increase in production and sales of oil and Gas, per capita income of countries has increased, and environmental health has improved. Also, considering that political freedom among the MENA region has a lot of diversity, the results showed that the countries with more political freedom, through greater awareness of the society and more accountability of the governments and the establishment of environmental protection laws, had a positive impact on the environment. Of course, the environmental health index is more influenced by the economic situation and per capita production of countries and political freedom has little effect on it.
Agricultural Economics
H. Amirnejad; S. Hosseini
Abstract
IntroductionFlood is a phenomenon that occurs almost in most regions of the world and causes significant damage to human life and ecosystem. Forests are one of the necessary things to prevent damages caused by floods, but the conditions are not enough. Therefore, it is important to use an economic tool ...
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IntroductionFlood is a phenomenon that occurs almost in most regions of the world and causes significant damage to human life and ecosystem. Forests are one of the necessary things to prevent damages caused by floods, but the conditions are not enough. Therefore, it is important to use an economic tool to manage and protect the Hyrcanian forest ecosystem in order to reduce flood damage in the coming years. Currently, there are various tools in this field that must be carefully chosen and it is not possible to use one tool in all ecosystems of the world. Payment for forest ecosystem services (PES) is one of the economic tools of forest management and protection by providing direct incentives to stakeholders to improve its ecosystem functions and services. Therefore, in comparison with other market instruments of environmental protection such as environmental taxes which may cause a reduction in the production of various economic sectors and as a result reduce the income of producers and finally lose their motivation. The Payment for Forest Ecosystem Services (PES) program not only does not reduce income, but also increases income for the beneficiaries of forest ecosystem services and thus creates incentives. Payment for ecosystem services is a two-way transaction and is completely voluntary. In this transaction, there must be at least one buyer and one ecosystem service provider provided that the ecosystem service provider continues to offer that service. The logic of PES schemes is that the beneficiaries (people who benefit from ecosystem services) are asked to protect the providers of ecosystem services (such as public or private organizations) who work to protect, restore and natural ecosystem management is to pay for better management and protection of these ecosystems. This payment may take place at the local, national and global level. Studies show that among the various factors influencing the occurrence of floods, excessive exploitation of forests and changes in the use of forest lands are the main causes of floods. But few studies have been conducted on the role of PES plans to protect natural ecosystems to prevent natural hazards such as floods. Therefore, considering the importance and extraordinary value of natural forests in the region in reducing flood damage, the purpose of this study is to investigate the preferences of residents affected by recent floods in Mazandaran province in the form of payment for ecosystem services (PES) scheme and to identify the factors affecting the acceptance of PES scheme to reduce flood damage by conservation the Hyrcanian forests ecosystem using the choice modeling approach (Choice Experiment (CE) and the multinomial econometric model. The Choice Experiment is one of the methods of valuing stated preferences, which is very suitable for analyzing the importance of different features of a product or a policy.Materials and MethodsTo achieve this goal, the Choice Experiment method and multinomial logit econometric model were used. The features studied in this method include forest management, watershed management, land use management (preventing forest land use change), payment method, contract duration and payment amount (price). Also, the statistical population of the study includes the affected-floods residents in three parts of the center, east and west of Mazandaran province. Research data were obtained by field survey, random sampling and 110 choice experiment questionnaires in summer 2020. Socio-economic variables in the study include age, gender, job, education, PES awareness, expenses and income of the affected-floods residents.Results and ConclusionBased on the study results, the willingness to pay of households affected by floods for conserving the Hyrcanian forest ecosystem to reduce flooding through land use management is as follows: for changing the status quo, it is 36,140 Rial per month; for improvement status, it is 68,910 Rial per month. Additionally, for contract duration and payment method, the willingness to pay is 150,150 Rial per month. The study findings also indicate that affected-floods residents prefer to make cash payments in the long-term to conserve the forest ecosystem and mitigate flooding. Furthermore, when examining the impact of various socio-economic variables on the residents' willingness to pay, it was found that age, gender, education, expenses, income, and awareness of Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) have a direct positive effect on their willingness to pay. Considering these results, it is recommended that forest conservation programs in the Northern provinces place importance on the mentioned factors to encourage people's participation in forest conservation projects. This will facilitate the implementation of the PES scheme and enhance the success of forest conservation efforts.
Agricultural Economics
M. Salehnia; M. Rafati
Abstract
IntroductionAgriculture and its products play a crucial role in sustaining human life. The introduction of the green revolution has greatly enhanced agricultural productivity worldwide by providing irrigation water, introducing improved crop varieties, and utilizing inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. ...
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IntroductionAgriculture and its products play a crucial role in sustaining human life. The introduction of the green revolution has greatly enhanced agricultural productivity worldwide by providing irrigation water, introducing improved crop varieties, and utilizing inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. These technologies received substantial public support, leading to significant advancements in agricultural practices. However, the benefits of the green revolution were not equally distributed among all farmers. Large and medium-scale farmers, who had the financial means to afford inputs and equipment, reaped the highest rewards in terms of production and income. Additionally, the excessive use of inorganic fertilizers resulted in soil and water quality degradation, posing a threat to the sustainability of the economic and social progress achieved through the green revolution. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether these challenges also apply at the sub-national or provincial level. By evaluating the level of agricultural sustainability, analyzing the trends in agricultural development, and identifying potential threats, it becomes possible to formulate practical plans for improving sustainability within the agricultural sector. The aim of this study is to assess indicators related to economic, social, and environmental dimensions of agricultural sustainability at the provincial level in Iran.Materials and Methods The assessment of sustainability of agriculture requires determination of meaningful indicators covering economic, social and environmental dimensions. Selection of indicators used in this study was based on relevance of the indicators and availability of secondary data. To achieve the purpose, the latest available information of the statistics of the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, the results of the labor force survey of the Statistics Center of Iran and the statistical yearbooks of different provinces were used. In terms of measuring environmental sustainability, indicators of crop diversification, use of organic and inorganic fertilizers and pesticides were selected. The specific indicators used for the analyses in the economic dimension were change in overall crop production (Quantum index of agricultural production) and stability of crop production. The stability of crop production refers to maintaining a certain minimum level of production or a steady increase in production as compared to the base year. The stability of production of major crops was analyzed using the Shapiro-Wilk (SW) normality test and one sample t-test. In the social dimension, indicators of rural labor employment and rural food security were used. Based mainly on secondary data, covering the period of 2005/06–2018/19, each dimension of sustainability was analyzed using selected indicators. Results and DiscussionThe analyses conducted in this study revealed several significant findings. Firstly, the majority of provinces in the country demonstrated a favorable situation in terms of crop diversification, as indicated by the Herfindahl index. This suggests a wide variety of crops being cultivated in these regions. However, there was a notable variation in the use of inorganic fertilizers per unit of land across the country. Furthermore, more than 60% of the country's soils were found to have less than one percent organic carbon, highlighting the need for optimal application and management of organic fertilizers, particularly in Golestan province. The study also identified a high rate of pesticide usage in the northern and southern provinces of the country, indicating potential concerns regarding pesticide management and environmental impact in these regions. Additionally, the analysis revealed either a consistent trend or a significant decrease in the Quantum index of agricultural production in most provinces. This suggests a potential stagnation or decline in agricultural productivity over time in these areas. Moreover, there was a significant decrease in the employment rate of the rural population in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. This finding implies potential shifts in employment patterns and economic dynamics in rural areas. Lastly, the study highlighted the significant share of food expenses in the income of the rural population in Sistan and Balouchestan province, underscoring the importance of addressing food security and affordability challenges in this region. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights into the current state of agricultural sustainability and development at the provincial level in Iran.ConclusionBased on the findings of this research, it can be concluded that regional differences exist in agricultural sustainability within Iran. In light of this, it is recommended to develop effective regional agricultural policies that are based on local-level research. This approach would enable a comprehensive understanding of the environmental concerns and specific needs at both the local and provincial levels. Furthermore, it is suggested to revise the agricultural extension structure to incorporate need-based services, improve the dissemination of information, and provide farm-level trainings. This would ensure that farmers have access to the necessary resources and knowledge to enhance their agricultural practices. The study emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance among the three tiers of agricultural sustainability. Merely focusing on improving one or two tiers would not be sufficient to ensure the overall sustainability of the agricultural sector. Therefore, effective interventions should address economic, social, and environmental aspects simultaneously. Specific interventions proposed in the study include the development of biological pest control methods, particularly for rice and tomatoes. Indirect subsidies for organic and biological fertilizers and pesticides are also recommended. Conservation and management of soil and water resources are crucial for stabilizing production. Additionally, diversification of income sources and livelihood options for smallholder farmers, especially in Sistan and Balouchestan and Kordistan provinces, is recommended to enhance their resilience and sustainability. By implementing these recommended interventions, it is anticipated that agricultural sustainability in Iran can be improved, ensuring a more balanced and resilient agricultural sector.
Agricultural Economics
F. Tagavi; B. Hayati; M. Ghahremanzadeh
Abstract
IntroductionBread holds a crucial position in Iranian cuisine and encompasses various types such as Barbari, Lavash, and Sangak. However, these bread varieties are often made from refined flours, lacking the nutritional benefits of whole grains. Reports from the Statistical Center of Iran indicate that ...
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IntroductionBread holds a crucial position in Iranian cuisine and encompasses various types such as Barbari, Lavash, and Sangak. However, these bread varieties are often made from refined flours, lacking the nutritional benefits of whole grains. Reports from the Statistical Center of Iran indicate that bread purchases constitute a significant portion of household expenses. Recent studies have raised concerns about the adverse health effects associated with excessive consumption of refined bread, potatoes, and rice, including diabetes, indigestion, obesity, cardiovascular issues, and digestive system disorders. These concerns highlight the limitations of whole grain food consumption, such as whole wheat-grain bread. To address these health concerns, it becomes necessary to provide stronger incentives or encourage individuals to incorporate more whole grain products into their diets. Thus, the present study aims to analyze the factors influencing households' willingness to pay extra for whole wheat-grain bread, specifically Lavash and Sangak, in the city of Tabriz over a specified time period. By examining these factors, valuable insights can be gained to promote the consumption of healthier bread options and enhance public health outcomes.Materials and MethodsTo achieve the research objective, a questionnaire was developed, and data was collected through a random sampling method from households residing in the ten provinces of Tabriz city. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 302 households during the summer of 2020. The data obtained from the questionnaire was analyzed using statistical and empirical techniques, specifically the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), Sequential Logit (LS) model, and Generalized Sequential Logit (GSL) model. To ensure the validity of the models used, the Brant test of parallel regression was applied. This test evaluated whether there was proportionality in the odds model for ordinal logistic regression. It examined whether the observed deviations from our ordinal logistic regression model were significantly larger than what could be expected due to chance alone. This assessment helped ensure the reliability and accuracy of the statistical analysis conducted in the study.Results and DiscussionThe results of the study indicate that a high percentage of households in Tabriz city, specifically 90.73% for Lavash bread and 93.38% for Sangak bread, were willing to pay extra for whole wheat-grain options. Among the households, 40.4% expressed their willingness to pay less than 20% extra for the bread, while 26.82% were willing to pay more than 50% extra. Several factors were found to influence households' willingness to pay for whole wheat-grain bread. Positive effects were observed for the health index, knowledge of the benefits of whole wheat bread, education level, family income, presence of elderly individuals in the family, and frequent consumption of whole wheat Lavash bread. However, gender had a negative effect on households' willingness to pay for whole wheat-grain Lavash bread. Similarly, for whole wheat-grain Sangak bread, the health index, knowledge of the benefits of whole wheat bread, family income, and the presence of a patient individual in the family had positive effects, while gender had a negative effect. As the null hypothesis of the parallel regression test was rejected, the Generalized Sequential Logit model was applied to analyze the effects of various factors on households' willingness to pay at different levels (0%, less than 20%, 21-30%, 31-40%, 41-50%, and more than 50%) for different types of whole wheat-grain bread. The results of the model yielded different outcomes. Increases in the health index, awareness of whole wheat bread, family income, education level, presence of a patient individual in the family, and frequent consumption of whole wheat bread positively influenced households' willingness to pay more for both Lavash and Sangak bread. Education level and the presence of a patient individual in the family acted as incentives for whole wheat-grain Lavash bread, while gender and the number of household members deterred households from paying more. The general index of bread purchase was the only factor influencing households' willingness to pay more for whole wheat-grain Sangak bread. Education level, knowledge of the benefits of whole wheat bread, gender, and the number of household members had a negative impact on households' willingness to pay for Sangak bread. Moreover, the marginal effects of the coefficients were estimated at different levels, indicating how changes in the independent variables (such as health index, general index of bread purchase, awareness of whole wheat bread, family income, education level, knowledge of the benefits of whole wheat bread, frequent consumption of whole wheat bread, number of household members, presence of elderly individuals in the family, and presence of a patient individual in the family) affected households' willingness to pay for whole wheat-grain bread.Conclusion According to the results, limitation in producing, supplying, and distributing the whole wheat-grain breads across the city, lack of easy access to whole wheat-grain stores, high prices, remote locations for purchases, and family awareness were the main and significant factors of using whole wheat-grain Lavash and Sangak breads among the Tabriz households. In this regard, the following policies were recommended: 1) Increasing the number of whole wheat-grain breads baking units and purchasing stores, 2) Group media can help to the acculturation and adaptation to the consumption of the whole grain bread, 3) Increasing awareness of whole wheat-grain bread benefits on health could be effective steps on the consumption of whole wheat-grain breads in Tabriz city.
Agricultural Economics
H. Hajizadeh; A. Fallah; S. Hosseini
Abstract
Introduction The forest ecosystem is one of the most important natural resources of any country, which provides various functions and services for human beings. Therefore, recognizing the functions and services related to the forest and determining the most appropriate valuation method for them ...
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Introduction The forest ecosystem is one of the most important natural resources of any country, which provides various functions and services for human beings. Therefore, recognizing the functions and services related to the forest and determining the most appropriate valuation method for them is of particular importance. Also, the continuation of using the functions and services of forests requires programs to protect and improve their environmental status. This issue itself requires the participation of stakeholders and finding out about their preferences for forest ecosystem protection and valuing them. But estimating the real value of some functions, ecosystem services and developing appropriate mechanisms to obtain their economic value requires economic valuation methods using non-market methods. Although there are different interpretations of the economic valuation methods of functions and services forest ecosystems but among the various valuation methods, economists have more emphasis on the value of money that is estimated through stated preferences. One of these methods to estimate the stated preferences is the Choice Experiment. Materials and Methods The purpose of this study is to evaluate the preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) of native communities for the conservation of Shiadeh and Diva forest ecosystems of Babol city located in Mazandaran province using the evaluation Choice Experiment (CE) method. The Choice Experiment is a subset of the choice modeling method and the stated preference method family. Choice modeling is based on Lancaster's value theory and random utility theory. Also, Shiadeh and Diva forests are one of the green areas with all kinds of forest covers, plants and valuable trees and as one of the useful and valuable resources for the residents of the region. These forests play an important role in the lives of the forest dwellers, herdsmen and villagers on its outskirts. Also, Shiadeh and Diva forests because of the presence of natural forest ecosystem, beautiful landscapes, unique vegetation and diverse animal species, as well as special human and cultural effects, are always one of the centers of interest. This forest ecosystem is very valuable and can provide services for the residents of this area. Therefore, in this study, the statistical population of the study includes 150 native households in the villages of Shiadeh and Diva forests. In the study, research data were completed and collected by field sampling in the summer of 2020 by native communities of the region. Socio-economic variables include eight variables: age, marriage, gender, job, household size, education, income and household expenditure. The effect of these variables on the WTP of communities was surveyed. In this study, the WTP of individuals for the forest ecosystems conservation was estimated by the CE method and conditional logit model. To validate the conditional logit model, the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) was performed using Hassman-McFadden statistic. Also, a multinomial logit model was used to investigate the effect of socio-economic variables on the WTP.Results and Discussion In this study, the reliability of the questionnaire was calculated using Cronbach's alpha test and was obtained as α=0.87, which indicates its reliability. WTP of each household for the conservation of Shiadeh and Diva forest ecosystem services, including regulatory, habitat and information services, from the status quo to the improvement situation was equal to 1020.68, 630.25 and 1026.49 thousand Rials per month, respectively. The study results showed that WTP native communities for the forest ecosystem conservation to provide regulatory services and its improvement is the first priority, and habitat and information services took the next positions.Conclusion The aim of this study was to evaluate the preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) of native communities for the conservation of Shiadeh and Diva forest ecosystem using the evaluation Choice Experiment (CE) method. In general, it can be concluded that regulatory services was the most important forest ecosystem services in terms of native communities in the region. Also, the final WTP of native communities' estemated at 33329.04 Rials per year (2777.42 Rials per household per month).Therefore, considering the great importance of the regulatory services of Shiadeh and Diwa forest ecosystem, such as water protection, soil protection, carbon sequestration and climate regulation, etc., it is suggested that relevant institutions such as the country natural resources and watershed management organization, the general department of natural resources of the province Mazandaran, regional water organization and agricultural Jahad organization allocate the necessary investments for the protection of Shiadeh and Diwa forests, and implementation of projects such as forest management projects, water protection, soil protection, species protection flora and fauna of the region projects, etc.
Agricultural Economics
H. Amirnejad; A. Mehrjo; M.H. Eskandari Nasab
Abstract
In the second half of the twenty-first century, economic change, population growth and globalization were the main factors driving the deforestation in the South Asian countries. To identify the effects due to socio-economic factors affecting deforestation in such countries, this study applied the spatial ...
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In the second half of the twenty-first century, economic change, population growth and globalization were the main factors driving the deforestation in the South Asian countries. To identify the effects due to socio-economic factors affecting deforestation in such countries, this study applied the spatial econometrics model based on data from 18 selected countries for the period between 2005 and 2015. The spatial correlation tests were showing that ignoring the effects of spatial correlation cause bias in results. The results of the model also confirmed the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the selected countries with a turning point of $ 5,107. Our findings illustrated that increasing GDP per capita in neighbouring countries through interregional mobility of inputs of production will increase deforestation in the target country. The increase in the exchange rate in neighbouring countries due to the increase in imports of forest products and the non-cutting of domestic forest resources will reduce deforestation in the target country. Increased population density and unemployment in neighbouring countries due to reduced job opportunities and increased migration to the target country, followed by increased demand for food and increased land demand, led to increased deforestation in the target country. Finally, increasing the human development index variable has reduced deforestation in the target country. However, changing this variable in neighbouring countries has not affected the deforestation of the target country. Therefore, in a world with increasing economic growth, it is suggested that to prevent deforestation by improving the human development index, eradicating the problem of unemployment, and eradicating poverty redouble efforts. As the results of this study showed, the population had a direct and significant effect on deforestation in selected countries. Due to the increase in population growth in different years, it is recommended that the population issue be given more attention by looking at the requirements of sustainable development to reduce environmental degradation, mainly deforestation. Because according to the results of this study, the lack of rapid population growth reduces deforestation in selected countries.
Agricultural Economics
F. Mazraeh; H. Amirnejad; A.R. Nikooie
Abstract
IntroductionIn recent years, climate change and global warming, by reducing rainfall and higher temperature, have increased the frequency and severity of drought and water scarcity in various parts of the world, including Iran. The study of the annual discharge of rivers located in Qarahsu basin (Golestan ...
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IntroductionIn recent years, climate change and global warming, by reducing rainfall and higher temperature, have increased the frequency and severity of drought and water scarcity in various parts of the world, including Iran. The study of the annual discharge of rivers located in Qarahsu basin (Golestan province) showed that this basin has also faced drought in recent years and since most of the water required of Miankaleh wetland is supplied from Qarahsu River, so Water abstraction for agricultural, urban and industrial uses will have a major impact on the ecosystem of Miankaleh wetland. Given that agriculture is the main economic activity in the Golestan province and also it is the largest consumer of water and food security providers in the region Therefore, reducing irrigation water consumption can provide the extra water needed to protect the wetland. In order to sustainable supply water required of Miankaleh wetland in Gorgan Gulf, and preventing to dry the wetland, and using area's capacity in food security, attending to water resources management is very important in Qarehsou river Basin and Gorgan Gulf (Miankaleh wetland).Materials and MethodsIn this paper, a hydro-economic river basin model was used to water optimal allocation of Qarehsou River among water users in the basin (including irrigation activities, urban, industrial, and fishery uses, and environment) and protecting the Miankaleh wetland ecosystem (Gorgan Gulf). The empirical river basin model includes three reduce forms of hydrological components, regional optimization components, and environmental components and can make the integrated linkage between hydrologic, economic, institutional, and environmental components. This model also simulates demand nodes' behavior under different drought scenarios. The linkage between the three model components allows a rigorous evaluation of the quantitative impacts of drought on water availability in the river basin under study, the effects on the users’ behaviors, and the private and social-economic benefits and costs of water use. The hydrological model of the river basin is based on the principles of water mass balance, which determine the volume of water availability in the different river reaches. This water available can be used for economic activities after taking into account the environmental restrictions for economic activities. In the economic component, the economic benefits of water demand are maximized by using water demand functions subject to technical and resource constraints. In the environmental component, we maximize the benefits that environmental characteristics provide for society and compare them with the benefits of other applications.Results and DiscussionThe results showed, in the current condition, the allocation and consumption of water have not been optimal between nodes in the Qarehsou river basin. In the normal water supply scenario, also total water sources decreased to protect Miankaleh wetland in suitable condition, but the area under cultivation of the most crops increases, which increases water resources consumption in this sector, and finally, the net benefits of the agriculture sector has grown positively. Also, by allocating 18 million cubic meters of water to the wetland, because of optimal water allocation, urban water consumption, and annual gross benefit increase, too. In drought conditions, because of water shortage due to climate change and reduction headwater and surface flows to preserve the wetland, water consumption reduced by all nodes, especially irrigation node. Agricultures can prevent from reducing excessive of their income by changing in cultivation pattern, deficit planting crops with less water, etc. Under drought conditions and water scarcity, although the amount of water available is reduced to all applicant nodes compared to baseline conditions, but it improves the economic benefits of stakeholders, especially the environment sector.Increasing groundwater extraction and decreasing surface water (due to drought and wetland water supply from headwater flow), although Qarehsou river basin has faced water scarcity problem, due to the optimal distribution of water between water demand nodes based on the economic-hydrological model used by changing the cultivation pattern and the use of drought-tolerant crops, the amount of water entering the Miankaleh wetland has increased in normal and drought scenarios and as a result has increased the gross environmental benefits of Qarehsou basin. Therefore, it is recommended to protect the Miankaleh wetland and increase its ecological function, reduce the water allocated value to irrigation sector, and to increase the farmers economy efficiency, optimal cultivation pattern, and applying deficit irrigation strategies promote by agricultural jihad experts in province, and in drought conditions is used suitable strategies for drought to improve water resources management.
Agricultural Economics
H. Balali; F. Kasbian Lal
Abstract
IntroductionOur country is among regions facing water scarcity as a large area of Iran is located in arid and semi-arid climates. So, comparing the annual average rainfall with annual mean annual precipitation on the planet, the rainfall in Iran is less than one-third of the the world, in addition, the ...
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IntroductionOur country is among regions facing water scarcity as a large area of Iran is located in arid and semi-arid climates. So, comparing the annual average rainfall with annual mean annual precipitation on the planet, the rainfall in Iran is less than one-third of the the world, in addition, the amount of rainfall and the area in which the agricultural main water user are located, does not match.The average annual rainfall in the world is about 850 mm and for Iran is about 250 mm, which is 40% less than the annual rainfall in Asia and approximately 33% less than the annual average of the world. The province of Hamedan has an area of 19493 square kilometers, located in the west of Iran between 33 degrees and 59 minutes to 35 degrees and 44 minutes north latitude, 47 degrees 47 minutes and 49 degrees, and 30 minutes east along the meridian of Greenwich.This province area consists of four plains including bahar, Kabotrahang, Razan and Qahavand. The water catchment area of Hamedan-Bahar plain, also known as Siminrood, is located on the northern slopes of Alvand altitudes with an area of 2,243 square kilometers. The plain is 880 km2 and the surface area of the main aquifer is 468 km2 (Fig. 1).Figure 1- Location of Hamedan-Bahar Plain and its Main Aquifer AreaThis plain, based on climatic divisions, is located in a cold semisolid climate and has a cool, mountainous climate. The ban on the development of exploitation of groundwater in the Hamedan-Bahar plain has been applied since the year 1992 due to the negative balance and the susceptibility of supplying drinking water in the cities of Hamedan, Bahar, Laljin.Around, 330 of the 609 plains in the country have been declared forbidden due to excessive perceptions. Hamedan-Bahar plain has been faced with a serious problem of water shortages due to excessive withdrawal of groundwater and negative water balance and the expansion of the area under irrigated production, as the annual rate of groundwater loss in this plain is 1 meter.The main objectives of this research are to estimate the economic value of groundwater in the agricultural sector of Hamedan-Bahar plain and to determine the optimal cropping pattern in the studied area using the GAMS programming model and mathematical programming.Eshraqi and colleague (7) on "Estimating the economic value of water in wheat production in Gorgan," have surveyed the demanders using a production function approach in 2012-2013. The results show that the economic value of water was estimated at 1564.5 Rials per cubic meter of water. Zeratakish (23), on "The economic valuation of water in the agricultural sector with an environmental approach in the Lichter plain", used a multidisciplinary mathematical programming approach. The economic value of water with a limit of 50, 60 and 70 percent was determined as 250, 1500 and 3050 rials, respectively.Mohammad Ayattha Watto and Amin William (2016) addressed a positive mathematical planning approach for estimating and valuing groundwater in Pakistan. Their results indicate that limiting groundwater extraction forces farmers to irrigate the demand for water. Azavara et al. (2012), conducted a study using the PMP method to evaluate the economic irrigation water in three California regions. The analysis of the results showed that the final economic value of water is at least 2.5 times the price paid by the users.Materials and MethodsIn this study, a dynamic mathematical programming model was used to evaluate the economics of groundwater in the agricultural sector. The general form of the model is as follows:Max:NPVGM= ] * *(1)S.t: (2) (3) (4)The objective function (equation 1) of the dynamic programming model is to maximize the gross returns of the crop activities of the region.In this equation NPVGM is the return of the program from the agricultural activities of the study area, p_i the price of the product i, y_ijs of the product i produced with the irrigation system j in area s (kg/ha), c_ijs, the variable cost of production of product i with irrigation system j In area s per hectare, cw water consumption cost, cfer fertility cost, CE fertilizer cost, cpes cost of various chemical pesticides and co cost of other inputs including power, machinery. In this regard, X_ijs is the crop area i produced by irrigation method j in s, w, water input, fertilizer input chemical fertilizer, e energy input, pes input chemical pesticide, and other inputs. The limitation of production inputs, including water, land, labor, and chemical inputs and the market, is generally referred to in equation (2) in which b_ijs is the technical coefficient of inputs and B_i is the amount of each of them. Equation (4) represents the cost function of water used for agricultural activity in which pw is the price or tariff of a unit of water, CWE_e The cost of extracting water from the surface of the earth and pumping and distributing it at the farm level per unit area (ha) and AW The amount of water consumed per hectare is from different crops.Results and DiscussionAs the Table 1 shows, products such as tomatoes, watermelons, sugar beets and chickpeas have been eliminated from the cultivar pattern, the high water requirement, the energy required for these products and the low price, have led to an increase in farmers production costs if this pattern is implemented in the area, so cultivation of these products have not been economical for farmers in the region. The cultivation of potato and alfalfa products that have high water demand are significant in the pattern, which can be due to the economic benefits and high yield of these two products in the region. Cultivation of cobbler products, such as cucumber, is low in optimal cropping patterns. Low-crop cultivation such as corn, rapeseed, garlic and pumpkin in the optimal pattern is due to market constraints in the region and low yields of these products (corn, rapeseed, garlic and pumpkin).Table 1- The Pattern of Cultivating the Studied Area in Optimum (unit: ha)ProducthamedanlalejinBaharsalehabadAlfalfa1489.5001760.773381.977-Barely-1526.398--Corn-500--Canola-291.727708.273-Cucumber-2552.500--Garlic800---Potato1489.5002552.5001090.2501204Pumpkin--500-Wheat1489.5001026.1021090.2501204Beans689.500-590.2501204Source: Research ResultsEstimating the economic value of groundwater in the regionsAccording to Table 2, the economic value of groundwater for each meter in Hamedan region is 3543 Rials, Lalejin 4538 Rials, 4015 Rials bahar and Salehabad 3690 Rials.As these figures indicate, any additional water supply unit in the region can increase the gross margin of farmers as much as the calculated economic value of water. The average economic value of water in the Hamedan plain-spring is 3946.5 Rials.Table 2- Results of Groundwater Economical Valuation in the Study Area (Rials)Area of studyEconomic value of water (per cubic meter)hamedan3543lalejin4538bahar4015salehabad3690Average plain of hamedan- bahar3946.5Source: Research ResultsConclusionSince the main objective of this study is to estimate the economic value of water in the region, the results showed that the economic value per cubic meter of calculated water in the study area is higher than the current price of water in the region. Therefore, any additional unit of water intake in the region can be as much as the calculated economic value of the water to increase the gross margin of farmers in the studied area.
Agricultural Economics
V. Hoshyar; M.A. Chavoshi
Abstract
Introduction Along with the increasing importance of environmental issues among consumers, recognizing the factors affecting the intention to buy green products and using them to develop green marketing campaigns and communication strategies is very effective. Proceeding through time and the rise ...
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Introduction Along with the increasing importance of environmental issues among consumers, recognizing the factors affecting the intention to buy green products and using them to develop green marketing campaigns and communication strategies is very effective. Proceeding through time and the rise of green communications, the focus of manufacturers is on buying behavior and the various factors that cause these types of behaviors, however, when the consumer expresses his desire to protect the environment, again this trend has little effect on their buying behavior. Of course, in some cases, there is evidence that people who are more concerned about environmental issues need to buy more green products to meet their needs, so that consumers are only concerned when they report that these behaviors do not involve personal expenses or significant changes and sacrifices in their lifestyle, and they have more information about the value of the environment effects on their lives. In addition, there is a weak relationship between attitude and practice, which is in contrast to the findings of other studies, which indicates a strong link between these variables. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the effect of general social attitude on buying behavior with the mediating role of green consumption values and receptivity of green communication.Materials and MethodsThe statistical population of this study was all students of different levels in Mashhad. The sample size was obtained based on Morgan table and using a non-random method available to 384 people. The data collection tool in this study is the standard questionnaire of Dupacho et al. (2018). To evaluate the reliability of the questionnaire, Cronbach alpha coefficient was used. The values obtained for Cronbach alpha are 0.897 of buying behavior, 0.817 of public participation attitudes, 0.828 of green consumption values, and 0.883 of green communication acceptance confirmation of the reliability of the questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was also obtained by using confirmatory factor analysis, which showed that the validity of the questionnaire was acceptable. In addition, divergent validity was confirmed to analyze the data using structural equation method using smart pls and SPSS 22 software.Results and Discussion Among the 384 people who participated in the study, 186 women (48.4%) and 198 men (51.6%) were members of the statistical sample. To facilitate the age of the respondents, we have categorized them into four age groups. 165 people, ie 43.0% of people are between 22 and 26 years old. 137 people, ie 35.7% of people are between 27 and 31 years old. 50 people, ie 13.0% of people are between 32 and 36 years old, and 32 people, ie 8.3% of people are more than 36 years old. General social attitudes affect the green consumption values of students in Mashhad. Green consumption values affect the buying behavior of students in Mashhad. Green consumption values affect the receptivity of green communication by students in Mashhad. Receptivity of green communications effects the shopping behavior of students in Mashhad. General social attitudes through green consumption values affect the buying behavior of students in Mashhad. General social attitudes through green consumption values affect the acceptance of green communication by students in Mashhad. Green consumption values through the acceptance of green communications affect the buying behavior of students in Mashhad.Conclusion The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of general social attitudes on buying behavior with the mediating role of green consumption values and receptivity of green communication among students in Mashhad. In general, it can be concluded that general social attitudes directly and indirectly affect the buying behavior of students in Mashhad. In fact, general attitudes that stem from people's social participation and create values for the consumer that play an important role in the behavior and decisions they make when shopping. Consumer demand and purchase play important roles in production and development of green products and are effective in the development of agriculture in line with the environment. However, the effectiveness of communication in fostering environmental attitudes and values has a prominent role in consumer green buying behavior.
Agricultural Economics
F. Ghafarian; Z. Farajzadeh
Abstract
Energy products are the main sources of emissions for most of the pollutants in Iran. However, for some pollutants like Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O), the production process, including the agricultural production process, plays a significant role. The aims of this study were to analysis the emissions ...
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Energy products are the main sources of emissions for most of the pollutants in Iran. However, for some pollutants like Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O), the production process, including the agricultural production process, plays a significant role. The aims of this study were to analysis the emissions intensity of the selected pollutants and to introduce the determinants in Iranian agricultural sector. The emission intensity in the agricultural sector was decomposed into its components using decomposition analysis. Then, the regression analysis was applied to investigate the emission intensity determinants. The selected pollutants are Carbon Dioxide (CO2), CH4, and N2O emitted from agricultural production process. The applied data cover 1973-2016. The findings showed that CH4 emission intensity has been decreasing over the study horizon by 3.9% annually. For N2O, the corresponding value was 2.6%. Based on the results, output level in agricultural sectors is an important driving factor in the emission intensity. It was found that 1% increase in livestock output level is expected to increase CH4 emission intensity by 0.9% while it will dampen the N2O emissions intensity by more than 3.3%. By contrast, the same percentage of increase in the output level of agronomy and horticultural subsector will induce an increase of 3.3% in N2O emission intensity and will reduce the CH4 emission intensity more than 0.9%. Macroeconomic variables including urbanization and trade openness failed to affect the agricultural emission intensity significantly. The emission intensity of all pollutants, measured in CO2 equivalent, has been decreasing over the study period by 3.5% annually. It was also found that, in terms of aggregated emission, output expansion in livestock and forestry sectors may induce higher emission intensity, while agronomy and horticultural output expansion can reduce the emissions intensity. Given that the output level plays a significant role in emission intensity while the macroeconomic variables have nothing to do with emission intensity, the measures taken to reduce the emission intensity in the agricultural sector should be sector-specific. Moreover, the measures should focus on each subsector individually.
Agricultural Economics
M. Taslimi; H. Amirnejad; S.M. Mojaverian; H. Azadi
Abstract
Introduction: The final energy consumption per capita in Iran in the agricultural sector is 3.4, as well for household sector is 2, besides the commercial and public sectors are 1.6, and transportation and industry are 1.4 times the global average. This is due to low efficiency in operation, high energy ...
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Introduction: The final energy consumption per capita in Iran in the agricultural sector is 3.4, as well for household sector is 2, besides the commercial and public sectors are 1.6, and transportation and industry are 1.4 times the global average. This is due to low efficiency in operation, high energy consumption, as well as the use of energy goods and services. The use of renewable energy in the agricultural sector, while increasing the security of energy supply, will reduce global warming, stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and increase per capita income and social justice and environmental protection in all areas. The purpose of this study is to investigate farmers' preferences for using solar energy in Sari.Materials and Methods: The Choice Experiment methods allow researchers to focus on valuing final changes as multidimensional features rather than discrete changes. Choosing between options encourages respondents to examine their preferences in detail related to different management programs. The Choice Experiment test approach consists of several steps, which include designing the Choice Experiment test, determining the sample size and method of data collection, estimation process, and modeling the Choice Experiment test. Designing a Choice Experiment test consists of five important steps which are defining attributes, determining the relevant levels, conducting an experimental design, constructing Choice sets, and measuring preferences. After determining the criteria affecting the prioritization of renewable energy, liketechnical, environmental, economic, social, and political criteria, in order to investigate the willingness to Pay of Sari farmers, a test questionnaire was designed. The criteria obtained from the review of prioritization of renewable energy were considered as the attributes of the Choice Experiment and the price attribute was added to the above criteria. A total of six technical, economic, social, political, environmental, and price attributes were considered to investigate farmers' willingness to pay. In the review of the studies and the current situation, the levels of each of the attributes were determined. To determine the levels of price attribute, these points were considered; the price of agricultural electricity per kilowatt-hour is 383 Rials, which was approximately 400 Rials for the current situation.Results and Discussion: To investigate the farmers' preferences for using solar energy, 98 questionnaires of farmers in Sari were completed in September 2019. Each questionnaire included 8 choice set cards and each card included three options, based on which, the number of observations in Sari is equal to 2352 observations. The purpose of this study is to investigate the preferences of farmers in Sari for the use of solar energy. For this purpose, the Multinomial logit, the Random parameter logit, the latent class, and the Random parameter logit latent class are used. Based on the results of the Multinomial logit method, environmental and price attributes at the level of one percent and economic attribute at the level of five percent are statistically significant, but political, social, and technical attributes are not statistically significant. The Alternative-specific Constants (ASC) in the first and second options are not statistically significant. Based on the results of the Random Parameter Logit estimation method, environmental, economic and price attributes are statistically significant at the level of one percent. Technical, political, and social attributes are not statistically significant, which shows that farmers do not make a significant difference between these two attributes. The Alternative-specific Constants (ASC) are significant in the first option at the level of five percent and the second option at the level of one percent. The results of latent class estimation show that in the first class, environmental, economic, political, social, and price attributes are statistically significant at the level of one percent and technical attribute at the level of ten percent. The Alternative-specific Constants (ASC) are statistically significant at the level of one percent in the first class. In the second class, technical attribute at the level of five percent and environmental attribute at the level of ten percent are significant, besides other attributes in the second class are not statistically significant. The most sensitive class is the first class and farmers of the second class are considered the base class. The results obtained from the Bayesian and Akaike criteria of different classes showed that the two classes have the lowest values of BIC and AIC criteria and the class is appropriate. After determining the appropriate class, the model was estimated. The results of model estimation were calculated by the Latent Class Random Parameter logit method. In the first class, environmental attributes and price are significant at the level of one percent and economical attributes at the level of five percent. Also, the Alternative-specific Constants (ASC) is significant at the level of one percent, but, in the second class, the attributes are not statistically significant. Technical, environmental, economic, political, social, and price attributes, as well as the option of status quo or the Alternative-specific Constants (ASC) in the second class, do not affect farmers' utility due to the lack of statistical significance.Conclusion: A comparison of the results obtained from the four methods shows that the highest value of the estimated coefficient for environmental attributes was in the latent class method and the lowest value was in the multinomial logit method; Comparison of fitted methods shows that the highest Log-likelihood is related to the latent class random parameter logit method and the lowest value is related to the multinomial logit method. Accordingly, the highest value of Akaike and Bayesian criteria is related to the multinomial logit method and the lowest value is related to the latent class random parameter logit method which is better than other methods according to the good fit criterion.
Agricultural Economics
P. Tonakbar; H. Amirnejad; S. Shirzadi Laskookalayeh
Abstract
Introduction: Among the various available tools in the field of natural resources and environmental management, the payment for ecosystem services (PES) is one of the market-based methods that is considered worldwide to protect the environment and ecosystem. PES is an important method for effective management ...
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Introduction: Among the various available tools in the field of natural resources and environmental management, the payment for ecosystem services (PES) is one of the market-based methods that is considered worldwide to protect the environment and ecosystem. PES is an important method for effective management of natural resources and public goods and one of the tools for managing degraded ecosystems and related environmental and economic services. Considering that Sefidrood is considered as the most important and valuable source of agricultural water supply and aquatic environment in Guilan province, and also the water quality of this important river is in a bad and very bad condition, this study was conducted using PES economic tools through payments by rice consumers in Guilan province to rice farmers and thus encouraging them to take environmentally friendly measures (organic agriculture) to reduce pollution of the Sefidrood River. Materials and Methods: This research was conducted using a choice experiment method. In our CE, each PES alternative is described by a set of attributes that include distribution of payments, contract duration, implementing organization, monitoring times, possibility to cancel and payments. First, to investigate the effect of different attributes of PES scheme on rice consumers' willingness to pay and their marginal utility, a conditional logit model was used to compare the results of random parameter logit model and latent class models with a base model. Then, the RPL and LC model was used to further investigate the invisible heterogeneity that exists in the behavior of respondents. The RPL model is an advanced model that allows attributes coefficients to change randomly among respondents. Therefore, instead of estimating a fixed coefficient for each attribute, two coefficients are estimated, which together describe the distribution of heterogeneous preferences of the respondents for this attribute.Results and Discussion: To confirm the CL model, the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption was performed using the Hausman-McFadden test. Given that the value of chi-square statistics has become large and significant, therefore, the CL model is not suitable for investigating the effect of attributes on consumer’s willingness to pay, and more advanced models should be used. For this reason, RPL and LC models are estimated. According to the results of the RPL model, the highest willingness to pay is related to the monitoring times therefor indicating that consumers are willing to pay 1347 Tomans for more monitoring. The amount of willingness to pay for the duration of contract and distribution of payments is equal to 1326 and 914 Tomans, respectively, which indicates if the contracts are short-time and also more payments are made to low-income rice farmers, the willingness to pay will increase to 1326 and 914 Tomans, respectively. Based on the results of the LC model, in the first class, except for the contract duration, all other attributes were not statistically significant. In the second class, the distribution of payments, the contract duration and the monitoring times with a positive sign and the implementing organization with a negative sign are significant. Class membership coefficients for organic rice consumers indicate that the likelihood of being in second class depends significantly on the respondents' age, gender, and level of education.Conclusion: The results of RPL and LC models confirm the existence of heterogeneity in the preferences of organic rice consumers. Therefore, appropriate methods can be used to differentiate organic products and thus improve the utility of consuming these products. Consumers were also more inclined to have a short-time and high monitoring scheme, this result is not unexpected due to the novelty of the scheme. Therefore, it is recommended to start short-time schemes with high monitoring. Consumers also tended to make more payments to low-income rice farmers, so it is recommended that lower-income rice farmers be given priority in implementing the PES scheme. The results of both model showed that the distribution of payments and monitoring times had the highest priority for consumers in choosing the PES scheme, respectively. Therefore, in order to increase the participation of consumers in such schemes, it is recommended to include these attributes in the schemes. Also, although PES is not designed as a tool to reduce poverty, it can increase the incomes of low-income rice farmers and help their livelihoods. Given that such schemes have not yet been implemented in Iran, it is suggested that in order to increase consumer participation, various levels of attributes should be provided to the respondents.
Agricultural Economics
J. Hosseinzad; M. Raei Jadidi
Abstract
Introduction: In recent years, the problem of water scarcity is becoming one of the most challenging issues with the economic development and population growth that have involved many sectors due to its importance and economic status and has received increasing attention from governments and international ...
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Introduction: In recent years, the problem of water scarcity is becoming one of the most challenging issues with the economic development and population growth that have involved many sectors due to its importance and economic status and has received increasing attention from governments and international research organizations. This emphasizes the need for optimal allocation of mentioned resources to balance socio-economic development and save water. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop an uncertainty-based framework for agricultural water resources allocation and calculate the amount of water shortage after allocation and also risk evaluation of agricultural water shortage. The developed framework will be applied to a real case study in the Marand basin, northwest of Iran. Perception of the amount and severity of risk on the system can be a good guide in the optimal allocation of resources and reduction of damage.Materials and Methods: Since various uncertainties exist in the interactions among many system components, optimal allocation of agricultural irrigation water resources in real field conditions is more challenging. Therefore, introduction of uncertainty into traditional optimization methods is an effective way to reflect the complexity and reality of an agricultural water resources allocation system. Among different methods, inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) has proved to be an effective technique for dealing with uncertain coefficients in water resources management problems. ITSP is incapable of reflecting random uncertainties that coexist in the objective function and constraints. Considering the risk of violating uncertain constraints and the stochastic uncertainty of agricultural irrigation water availability on the right hand side of constraints and uncertainties related to economic data such as the revenue and penalty in the objective function which are expressed as probability distributions, the CCP method and Kataoka’s criterion are introduced into the ITSP model, thus forming the uncertainty-based interactive two-stage stochastic programming (UITSP) model for supporting water resources management. A set of decision alternatives with different combinations of risk levels applied to the objective function and constraints can be generated for planning the water resources allocation system. In the next step, on the basis of results of UITSP agricultural irrigation water shortage risk evaluation can be conducted by using risk assessment indicators (reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, risk degree and consistency) and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Results and Discussion: A series of water allocation results under different flow levels and different combinations of risk levels were obtained and analyzed in detail through optimally allocating limited water resources to different irrigation areas of Marand basin. The results can help decision makers examine potential interactions between risks related to the stochastic objective function and constraints. Furthermore, a number of solutions can be obtained under different water policy scenarios, which are useful for decision makers to formulate an appropriate policy under uncertainty.The results show that the dry season, i.e., July, August and September are the peak periods of water allocation and demand in Marand basin, which in these months, despite the higher water demand, the amount of water allocation in the current situation is less, which leads to more water shortages in these months. However, the results show that by increasing the efficiency of irrigation and water allocation using the developed framework, the amount of agricultural water allocation and demand is almost balanced and in addition to reducing water shortages, it leads to control over extraction from wells. Also, the goals of the regional water organization, which is reducing the amount of water allocated in the agricultural sector, will be achieved. Comparison with actual conditions shows that the allocation of water resources using the developed framework reduces water shortages while allocation becomes more efficient. Furthermore, the net system benefits per unit water increase which will demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of the developed framework. Results of evaluation of agricultural irrigation water shortage risks indicate that the water shortage risks in the Marand basin are in the category of serious or critical risk level. Therefore, if the current trend of allocation and exploitation of water resources continues, with the population growth, climate change, increasing demand for agricultural products and changing the probability of available water in the future, the water shortage risk would increase to the unbearable risk level. The continuation of this process threatens all investments and economic foundations of this study area. Therefore, the risk of water shortage in the future should be managed by improving the water-saving technologies and also changing the cultivation pattern to drought resistant crops.Conclusion: In this study, an uncertainty-based framework for agricultural water resources allocation and risk evaluation was developed, including model optimization of agricultural water and risk evaluation of water shortage. The developed framework is capable of fully reflecting multiple uncertainties. The developed framework will be helpful for managers in gaining insights into the tradeoffs between system benefits and related risks, permitting an in-depth analysis of risks of agricultural irrigation water shortage under various scenarios. The assessment of agricultural water shortage risk based on the results of the optimization model helps decision makers to obtain in-depth analysis of agricultural irrigation water shortage risk under various scenarios. In application of the developed framework to Marand basin, series of results of agricultural water resources allocation expressed as intervals, and agricultural water shortage risk evaluation levels under different flow levels and also different combinations of risk levels are generated. Comparison between optimal results and actual conditions of agricultural irrigation water allocation demonstrates the feasibility and applicability of the developed framework. Results of evaluation of agricultural irrigation water shortage risks indicate that the water shortage risks in the Marand basin are in the category of serious or critical risk level. Therefore, effective risk management measures should be taken first for different irrigation areas of Marand basin.
Agricultural Economics
H. Danshgar; M. Bagheri; M. Mardani Najafabadi
Abstract
Introduction: Climate change and increasing global warming are intensifying droughts, changes in rainfall distribution and depletion of water resources over time. Persisting hot and dry weather has intensified the phenomenon of climate change and posed serious threats to the country's water resources, ...
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Introduction: Climate change and increasing global warming are intensifying droughts, changes in rainfall distribution and depletion of water resources over time. Persisting hot and dry weather has intensified the phenomenon of climate change and posed serious threats to the country's water resources, resulting in the inability to meet the needs like drinking, environmental, industrial and agricultural ones. The fifth report of the Climate Change Board also shows that the phenomenon of climate change in many parts of the world has had a negative impact on agricultural production; but the application of appropriate and timely adaptive scenarios against climate change can reduce the negative effects of this phenomenon on the agricultural crops yield. Bushehr province is mostly exposed to climate change and drought because of its geographical location. According to the National Meteorological Center, the area affected by drought in this province during the ten-year period ending in March 2019, was 83%. Up to 80% of the plains of the province have a negative groundwater level. This problem is more severe in some plains of the province, including Bushkan plain, the water level of this plain has decreased by 1.31 meters annually. This plain is considered as the agricultural hub of province and Dashtestan city. Thus the study of the effects of climate change on the hydrological and agricultural situation of the Bushkan plain and the analysis of the effectiveness of adaptive scenarios to reduce the negative effects of this phenomenon is very important.Materials and Methods: In this study, in order to create optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of climate change, the LARS-WG microscale model was used. Then, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on the hydrological status of Bushkan plain, water needs of agricultural crops and crops yield, simulated climate change scenarios and adaptive scenarios include improve irrigation efficiency and deficit irrigation were entered into WEAP model and its agro-agricultural model, MABIA. For the purpose of investigating the adaptation of agricultural production systems to changes in available water and yield as well as to measure the effectiveness of adaptive scenarios, a positive economic planning model was used. For economic model, statistics and information related to the cultivation area, production costs, prices and yields of crops in different areas of Bushkan plain were obtained through the Jihad Agricultural Organization and also completed 100 questionnaires from farmers in the area. Random sampling method was used to calculate the sample size.Results and Discussion: By applying two scenarios, optimistic A1B and pessimistic A2, in general, it can be concluded that the most changes in precipitation were in autumn and winter and the most temperature changes were at least in autumn and spring. Also, applying a pessimistic scenario will cause more drastic changes than an optimistic scenario. The results of MABIA model show that by applying both climatic scenarios, the average water requirement of all agricultural products increases during the simulation period compared to the base period.Increasing water demand and decreasing available water have caused water stress and as a result reduced the yield of various agricultural products in Bushkan plain. The results show that the average crop yields decreases, but the highest reduction of yield in both scenarios is related to wheat crop. The results of PMP model indicates that the application of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios will reduce the area under cultivation of this plain by 42% and 55%, respectively. On the other hand, among different crops, the area under cultivation of crops such as wheat, barley and watermelon has declined more sharply. However, the application of adaptive scenarios to improve irrigation efficiency and under-irrigation somewhat offsets the effects of climate change. In optimistic climate change, adaptive scenarios to improve irrigation efficiency and use of deficit irrigation method will improve the area under cultivation of agricultural products by 6 and 4 percent, and in pessimistic climate change by 3.8 and 2.3%.Comparison of the results of applying adaptive scenario shows that despite the less effect of deficit irrigation on improving the area under crops, the increase in profit in this scenario is more than the improvement of irrigation efficiency and the reason is the costs of improving irrigation efficiency compared to the deficit irrigation scenario.Conclusion and Recommendations: Principles of resource management and low productivity have led to declining groundwater levels and as a result the ban on the exploitation of more groundwater in the plains of Bushehr province, including the Bushkan plain. Accordingly, in this study, the consequences of climate change on the hydrological and agricultural situation in the Bushkan plain of Bushehr province as well as the effectiveness of adaptive scenarios were investigated .Finally, based on the results of the present study, it is suggested that farmers use scenarios such as deficit irrigation methods and improve irrigation efficiency to prevent water loss and reduce the yield of these crops. However, since the results showed that using deficit irrigation method will improve agricultural profits more than improving irrigation efficiency, therefore, using deficit irrigation method has priority over improving irrigation efficiency. Also due to the low impact of climate change on water demand and canola yield, canola is suggested to local farmers as an alternative crop for wheat and barley crops.