Agricultural Economics
mahdi pendar; mohammad rezvani; eyed Safdar Hosseini; Hamed Rafiee
Abstract
IntroductionThe economy of countries are always exposed to shocks, including the Covid-19 pandemic, which cause various problems. The epidemic of Covid-19 has had various effects and consequences in various sectors, including the agricultural sector. So that the decrease in income and production and ...
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IntroductionThe economy of countries are always exposed to shocks, including the Covid-19 pandemic, which cause various problems. The epidemic of Covid-19 has had various effects and consequences in various sectors, including the agricultural sector. So that the decrease in income and production and the loss of customers according to health quarantines and border closures have severely affected the business of farmers and created many problems for activists of various sectors of the agriculture. One of the most important effects of the Covid-19 pandemic is the reduction of economic growth worldwide. This issue has resulted in to an increase in unemployment and a decrease in the people's purchasing power in the community and a decrease in demand. According to the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on food demand as a result of disorder in the supply chain and income impulses, the purpose of this research is to investigate the existence of a structural failure in the preferences of livestock products (red meat, chicken, eggs and milk) of Iranian consumers using the Quadratic almost ideal demand system and the switching regression framework developed by Ohtani & Katayama (1986) in the period of spring 2015 to winter 2022.Materials and MethodsNonparametric and parametric approaches are used to investigate structural failure in consumer preferences. The parametric approaches and Quadratic almost ideal demand system is employed to assess the structural failure. The switching regression framework proposed by Ohtani and Katayama (1986) is utilized to model structural changes in preferences. In fact, a time transition function enters the demand system. Based on the characteristics of demand in the literature of structural changes, Bewley likelihood-ratio test is applied to select an appropriate model.In order to evaluate the structural failure and calculate the price and income elasticities, the price and per capita consumption data of livestock products are needed, and in this research, seasonal time series data for the period of spring 2015 to winter 2022 have been used. The information related to the price of livestock products was obtained from the Joint Stock Company of the Support of Livestock Affairs. To get the per capita consumption, first, the information on the amount of production of red meat, chicken, milk, and eggs was received from the joint stock company for livestock affairs. Then, by summing the amount of production and the amount of import of red meat, chicken, milk and eggs and deducting the amount of export from the said amount and dividing it by the population of the country, the amount of consumption per capita was calculated. The amount of export and import of red meat, chicken, milk and eggs is taken from the export and import report of the Ministry of Agriculture (Jihad), which is published monthly. Results and DiscussionIn order to estimate the system equations, one of the equations was removed and other ones were solved based the previous one, followed by estimation. Accordingly, the equation related to the removed milk and the QAIDS with 33 parameters and three equations including those related to red meat, chicken and egg were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimator non-linearly. The results show the Based on the statistics of log-likelihood and DW the existence of a gradual structural failure as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Comparing the statistics of Bewley likelihood ratio test calculated for an unlimited QAIDS (with structural failure) and a limited one (without structural failure) with a critical χ^2 value with degrees of freedom of nine at the probability level of 5% indicates that the unlimited QAIDS is selected as the appropriate functional one. Also, the results show that after the Covid-19 epidemic, the price of red meat and chicken has increased dramatically. Considering the high elasticity of the price of red meat, chicken and eggs after the Covid-19 epidemic, it is suggested that the government use price tools to support consumers. ConclusionDue to the high cross-elasticity coefficients of demand for red meat, chicken and eggs after the Covid-19 pandemic, it can be expected that a change in the price of one of the red meat, chicken and egg products will significantly change the demand for the other product. slow, therefore, in the application of optimal demand management and consumption pattern planning, the use of substitute product price policies can be useful.Keywords: Change of Preference, quadratic almost ideal demand system, structural failure
Agricultural Economics
hasan Mehmandoost; Alireza Sargazi; Alireza Keikha; Saman Ziaee; Alireza sani heidari
Abstract
The research investigates the capacities and factors influencing the development of entrepreneurship in rural areas of Hamoun County. Given the significance of entrepreneurship in generating employment, reducing poverty, and enhancing the quality of life in rural regions, identifying and analyzing key ...
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The research investigates the capacities and factors influencing the development of entrepreneurship in rural areas of Hamoun County. Given the significance of entrepreneurship in generating employment, reducing poverty, and enhancing the quality of life in rural regions, identifying and analyzing key factors in this domain is essential. The study employed stratified random sampling, involving 278 entrepreneurs and individuals active in rural business sectors. The influential factors on entrepreneurship development were categorized into six main dimensions: human and individual factors, infrastructural, cultural, economic, and social. Data analysis utilized factor analysis and ordered logit modeling. The results from the factor analysis indicated that "government support and subsidies for production," "income," and "diversification of rural products" significantly contribute to the economic dimension of rural entrepreneurship development. In terms of cultural and social aspects, factors such as "experience," "consultation and support services," "awareness level," and "interest in village improvement" played a crucial role. For infrastructural factors, "access to services and facilities" and "access to a dynamic rural environment" were found to be pivotal in explaining overall variance. Lastly, individual factors like "motivation," "education," "psychological resilience," and "management creativity" were identified as significant contributors to this dimension. Additionally, the results from the ordered logit model revealed that among the influencing factors and barriers to entrepreneurship development, economic, cultural and social, institutional and educational, as well as infrastructural factors had a significant positive effect. Conversely, economic barriers and social obstacles negatively impacted the likelihood of individuals achieving high levels of entrepreneurial motivation. This research provides critical insights for policymakers, suggesting that they should prioritize determining factors for rural entrepreneurship development in their programs. Furthermore, it is recommended that policymakers reduce barriers to rural entrepreneurship and investment risks through subsidized support, low-interest loans, and micro-insurance funds.This research investigates the capacities and factors influencing entrepreneurship development in the rural areas of Hamun County. Given the importance of entrepreneurship in creating employment, reducing poverty, and improving the quality of life in rural regions, identifying and analyzing key factors in this context is essential. The significance of rural entrepreneurship lies not only in its potential to stimulate local economies but also in its ability to foster social cohesion and community development. As highlighted by Petrin (1992), entrepreneurship serves as a central force for economic growth in rural areas, and without it, other developmental efforts may prove ineffective. Thus, understanding the dynamics of rural entrepreneurship is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to enhance the livelihoods of rural communities. In light of the challenges and opportunities present in rural entrepreneurship, this article aims to identify effective factors influencing entrepreneurial development while reviewing existing literature. By categorizing these factors into human and individual, infrastructural, cultural, economic, and social dimensions, the study seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis that can inform future initiatives aimed at strengthening entrepreneurship in these areas. The findings are expected to offer practical recommendations for enhancing the entrepreneurial ecosystem in Hamun County. Materials and MethodsThe present study utilized a stratified random sampling method, involving 278 entrepreneurs and individuals active in rural business sectors. The research categorized influential factors into six primary groups: human and individual factors, infrastructural factors, cultural factors, economic factors, and social factors. Data analysis was conducted using Stata and Excel software to model relationships among these variables effectively. This structured approach allows for a nuanced understanding of how different factors contribute to or hinder entrepreneurial development in rural contexts. Results and DiscussionThe results indicate that "government support and subsidies for production," "income," and "diversification of rural products" play significant roles in explaining and influencing entrepreneurial behavior from an economic development perspective. In terms of cultural and social aspects, "experience," "consultation and support services," "awareness levels," and "interest in village improvement" were found to have substantial impacts on entrepreneurial behavior. From an infrastructural standpoint, "access to services and facilities" along with "access to a dynamic rural environment" emerged as critical determinants explaining the variance among extracted factors. Furthermore, regarding individual aspects of entrepreneurial development, findings revealed that "motivation," "education," "psychological resilience," and "management creativity" significantly contribute to explaining variations in behavior among entrepreneurs. The results indicated that among various influencing factors on entrepreneurship development, economic factors, cultural and social factors, institutional and educational factors, as well as infrastructural factors had positive and significant effects on the likelihood of individuals achieving high levels of entrepreneurial motivation. ConclusionAmong the identified indicators, government support and subsidies for production had a more substantial impact on income levels while diversification of rural products significantly influenced entrepreneurial behavior from an economic development perspective. In terms of cultural and social dimensions, experience, consultation services, awareness levels, and interest in village improvement were crucial for explaining variations in entrepreneurial behavior. From an infrastructural perspective, access to services and facilities alongside access to a dynamic rural environment played a decisive role in explaining the variance among extracted factors. Finally, individual development aspects revealed that motivation, education, psychological resilience, and management creativity significantly contributed to variations in behavior among entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that within the studied villages—specifically Mohammadabad, Ali Akbar Town, Dek Dehmardeh Town, Sanjoli Town, Mir Town, Bandei Town, and Kermani—there are ideal conditions for entrepreneurship compared to other assessed villages. Furthermore, using an ordered logit model revealed that economic indicators along with cultural-social factors significantly influence individuals' motivations for entrepreneurship. This expanded introduction provides a comprehensive overview of your research topic while highlighting its significance within the broader context of rural entrepreneurship development.Keywords: Entrepreneurship Development, Factor Analysis, Ordered Logit, Rural Areas, Hamun County
Agricultural Economics
Masomeh bahadori; Bita Rahimi Badr; Alireza Nikouei; Rooya Eshraghi Samani
Abstract
Extended AbstractThe seed control and certification process is considered as a key tool to confirm the quality of the produced seeds. Considering the unique position of wheat in the agricultural and consumption system of the country, this process plays a special role in the sustainability of healthy ...
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Extended AbstractThe seed control and certification process is considered as a key tool to confirm the quality of the produced seeds. Considering the unique position of wheat in the agricultural and consumption system of the country, this process plays a special role in the sustainability of healthy seed production and food security. The present study investigated factors affecting the development of the wheat seed control system and identified the most important components affecting it with the aim of designing a conceptual model.The current research used the grounded theory, and analytic network process. The results of the semi-structured interview in the qualitative stage of 20 cereal seed experts led to the identification of 47 concepts, 11 core categories and four broad categories in the form of six core classes of the paradigm model.In the following, a targeted sample was formed to perform pairwise comparisons with eight members of the academic staff specializing in seed control. The validity and reliability of the research was evaluated at the optimal level. Regarding the semantic interpretation of the conceptual model, regulatory factors and government support policies were identified as solutions with positive consequences, improving the quality of wheat seeds and the stability of the seed market.Moreover, the results showed that the quality of seed kernels and balancing the sale price of healthy seeds were more important than the costs of seed production among the components of technical and economic criteria. In addition, the ranking of seed producing units for providing incentive facilities in the top units and supporting the entry of knowledge-based companies in the supply of seed production were among the strategies developed for the development of this process.IntroductionThe seed industry is a growing industry in the world, and the role of processed seeds in increasing the production performance is undeniable. Due to the population growth, the importance of achieving food security is increasing. Healthy seed is one of the important factors in the development of agricultural production. Although agricultural production systems have increased their production, it does not seem to be enough, though. The basic problems of the seed market and insufficient supply of seeds required by farmers have made it necessary to identify samples of seed quality development. The current research was the first research at the national level dealing with the design of a conceptual model for the development of control and certification of wheat seeds using the grounded theory method and prioritization of effective factors.Materials and MethodsThis research had a fundamental-applicative goal and was applied in two stages. In the first stage, after designing the interview questions, the grounded theory was carried out in three stages of open, central, and selective coding using a systematic approach in order to design a conceptual model. After designing the paradigm model and identifying the factors affecting the development of seed control and certification, the prioritization of the components was done including technical, social, economic and structural criteria using analytic network process.Results and DiscussionAfter analyzing the interviews, 140 initial codes were identified and the initial codes were reduced to 94 and then to 47 concepts. In the following parts, 11 core categories including processed seed production standards, laws and regulations, environmental factors, regulatory factors, equipment and technology, stability in the seed market, government support policies, human factors, wheat seed quality, attitude and awareness, and economic infrastructure were identified. The results of prioritization among the four effective criteria on the development of seed certification indicated that the technical criterion was more important than the other three criteria. In terms of the prioritization of the components, the quality of the seed kernel having a weight of 0.49, the performance of the responsible expert having a weight of 0.44, the cost of producing processed seeds having a weight of 0.39 were the first priority of technical, social, and economic criteria. Applying the ranking of production units with a weight of 0.57 and making the seed market competitive with a weight of 0.26 were more important than other components of structural criteria.ConclusionAccording to the results of this study, and the first priority of the technical criterion, it is suggested to monitor the quality of seed kernels and select appropriate farm inspectors. Moreover, in order to strengthen the human resources system, it is recommended to hold continuous courses in the field of seed quality. To implement the solutions of the paradigm model, it is recommended to prevent buying and selling unhealthy seeds and balance the costs of producing and selling processed seeds.
Agricultural Economics
A. Karbasi; S. Jalalian
Abstract
AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic presented major global challenges, including a decline in per capita income growth across all income groups in 2020. The protein sector, particularly Animal-Source Foods (ASF) faced increased pressure on both supply and demand, resulting in price volatility. This study examines ...
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AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic presented major global challenges, including a decline in per capita income growth across all income groups in 2020. The protein sector, particularly Animal-Source Foods (ASF) faced increased pressure on both supply and demand, resulting in price volatility. This study examines how income shocks affected food expenditure patterns and consumption behavior, with a focus on protein-rich ASF. Utilizing the QUAIDS model, budget data from Iranian households in rural and urban areas were analyzed for 2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020 (during pandemic). The findings yield three key insights: (1) The average food expenditure share rose from 37% to 42%, with a sharper increase in rural areas; (2) Positive expenditure elasticities were observed across the six ASF groups including livestock meat, poultry, aquatic animal products, dairy, eggs, and fats, while own-price elasticities were relatively smaller; and (3) Welfare losses across ASF groups ranged from 2% to 24.2%, driven by policy imbalances, supply chain disruptions, and unequal utility distribution. Rural households experienced greater welfare losses in all ASF categories except fats. The study recommends targeted interventions: price-based support for urban areas and expanded social services for rural regions. To strengthen policy responses and enhance long-term food security, future research should assess the potential for substituting plant-based proteins as sustainable and cost-effective alternatives. These findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to improve nutritional resilience and economic stability in the post-pandemic era.
Agricultural Economics
Sh. Zarif Moradin; M. Daneshvar Kakhki; M. Sabouhi Sabouni
Abstract
AbstractOne of the essential goals of societies, primarily developing and underdeveloped countries, is to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development. As vulnerable individuals in many communities’ face growing economic, environmental, and political challenges, proactive crisis management ...
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AbstractOne of the essential goals of societies, primarily developing and underdeveloped countries, is to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development. As vulnerable individuals in many communities’ face growing economic, environmental, and political challenges, proactive crisis management by governments and policymakers—aimed at increasing the productivity of key economic sectors such as agriculture—has become essential. The efficiency of the farm sector is not only crucial for ensuring national food security, but it also significantly impacts the livelihoods, incomes, and resilience of rural smallholders. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of agricultural support policies on the resilience of rural farmers in the Fariman region. The study area is the Hossein Abad Rekhneh Gol village, Iran, and the data were collected through documentation and the use of questionnaires. The Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) introduced by the FAO has been used to determine the resilience of rural farmers. Additionally, the distribution of subsidized fertilizers to farmers as a common agricultural support policy in the country has been chosen. The impact of this agricultural support policy on the resilience of rural farmers has been estimated using the propensity score matching method in this study. The study results indicate that households eligible to receive subsidized fertilizers have higher resilience on average compared to households that are not eligible. Based on the research findings for the study area, it is recommended that rural smallholders be prioritized in the allocation of subsidized fertilizers, which is constrained by quantity and budget limitations imposed by the government, compared to large-scale farmers. Additionally, facilitating rural farmers’ access to the available agricultural wells owned by non-private institutions can potentially improve farmers’ resiliency.
Agricultural Economics
M. Molaei; M. Rashidghalam; B. Hosseinpour
Abstract
Abstract
The importance of understanding consumer engagement with digital marketing in agriculture is highlighted by the rapid evolution of digital platforms, which are transforming traditional marketing approaches. This study investigates the factors influencing consumer intentions to engage with digital ...
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Abstract
The importance of understanding consumer engagement with digital marketing in agriculture is highlighted by the rapid evolution of digital platforms, which are transforming traditional marketing approaches. This study investigates the factors influencing consumer intentions to engage with digital marketing of agricultural products in Urmia, Iran. Data were collected from 385 respondents through a structured questionnaire and analyzed using a logistic regression model. Results indicate that perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, trust, information quality, and social influence positively and significantly impact engagement intentions. Demographic factors such as age (negatively), education level, and income (both positively) also play significant roles. Notably, prior online purchase experience emerged as a strong predictor of engagement intention, while price sensitivity showed a marginally significant negative effect. The study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence from a developing country context and offering a comprehensive model for understanding consumer behavior in digital agricultural marketing. Implications for marketers include developing user-friendly platforms, prioritizing trust-building mechanisms, and tailoring strategies to different demographic segments.
Agricultural Economics
H. Kazmi Shabanzade Aflaki; O. Javanbakht; Kh. Alefi
Abstract
AbstractAgricultural activities are inherently riskier than other types of production and are often accompanied by inefficiencies. Therefore, studying risk and inefficiency simultaneously can help enhance productivity. The statistical population in this study consisted of rice farmers in Rasht County. ...
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AbstractAgricultural activities are inherently riskier than other types of production and are often accompanied by inefficiencies. Therefore, studying risk and inefficiency simultaneously can help enhance productivity. The statistical population in this study consisted of rice farmers in Rasht County. Based on data from the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Guilan province (2016), the total number of farmers at the time of the study was 38,763. Using Cochran’s formula, the required sample size was calculated to be 226, representing approximately 58 percent of the population. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: one focusing on the inputs used in the rice production process, and the other on the socio-economic characteristics of farmers and their farms. To simultaneously evaluate the technical efficiency and production risk of rice farmers in Rasht County in 2018, a generalized Stochastic Frontier Production (SFP) model with flexible risk properties was employed. The results of estimating production risk function showed that (i) rice production was significantly affected by land, seed and labour inputs; (ii) land, water, age, and gender variables were risk-increasing factors; (iii) seed, herbicides, machinery, farmer’s education, family size, and farming experience were risk-reducing inputs; (iv) seed, labour, membership in the agricultural cooperatives and insurance increased technical inefficiency; and (v) nitrogen fertilizer, water, gender, experience, and participation in educational and promotional programs reduce technical inefficiency in the studied area. The results of estimating technical efficiency showed that the average technical efficiency of the rice paddy field was 93.47 percent and 96.27 percent with and without a risk component, respectively. Therefore, it is clear that estimating the model without a risk component leads to biased results of technical efficiency. In conclusion, it is recommended that the risk component be considered when measuring the technical efficiency of paddy fields to achieve sound risk management and highly efficient production.
Agricultural Economics
M. Ghasabi; M. Haji-Rahimi; H. Ghaderzadeh; R. Shankayi
Abstract
Abstract
Risk is an undeniable factor in agricultural activities, and its neglect can lead to inefficient resource allocation in the sector. Various theories and mathematical programming models have been developed to assist decision-making in cropping pattern management under risk conditions. This study ...
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Abstract
Risk is an undeniable factor in agricultural activities, and its neglect can lead to inefficient resource allocation in the sector. Various theories and mathematical programming models have been developed to assist decision-making in cropping pattern management under risk conditions. This study aimed to determine the optimal cropping pattern for Dehgolan Plain, Iran, using data from 2014 to 2023. A linear programming model was employed to maximize farmers' gross income, and the results were compared with those from a Quadratic Programming Model and the Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation (MOTAD) model, both incorporating risk minimization. The findings revealed that risk factors can significantly influence cropping patterns. Under the highest level of risk, the profit-maximizing cropping pattern included only cucumber, alfalfa, and canola, indicating a preference for higher gross-income crops despite their greater water requirements. However, when risk was incorporated into the model, the cultivated area of wheat and barley increased compared to the risk-neutral scenario. This shift reflects a tendency toward lower water-requirement crops, even at the cost of reduced gross income. These results highlight the necessity of balancing income maximization and risk management for more sustainable cropping pattern.
Agricultural Economics
M. Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody
Abstract
Investigating food consumption patterns in rural areas of Iran is necessary to understand the state of food security and social health in the country. Identifying provinces with standard and homogeneous consumption patterns not only helps improve planning to meet food needs, but also can lead to the ...
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Investigating food consumption patterns in rural areas of Iran is necessary to understand the state of food security and social health in the country. Identifying provinces with standard and homogeneous consumption patterns not only helps improve planning to meet food needs, but also can lead to the formulation of appropriate and effective policies to address issues related to nutrition and public health. This study examined: (i) the current food consumption patterns in rural areas of Iran in 2023, compared to the standard dietary pattern; (ii) the ranking of provinces based on the similarity of their dietary patterns to the standard; (iii) the identification of similar food consumption patterns across rural regions in different provinces; and (iv) the relationship between food consumption patterns and the infrastructural, economic, and social indicators of the provinces. The methodology of this study includes statistical analysis tools, such as TOPSIS method and k-means clustering technique. The results showed that the current dietary pattern of households in rural areas of Iran mainly consists of various types of cereals, providing more than 60% of an adult's daily calorie intake. Comparing, global scale, cereals provide 50% of daily calories intake, averagely, varying from 30% to 55% and 70% in high, middle, and low-income societies, respectively. We found that food consumption in rural areas of Iran does not necessarily align with the standard pattern, meaning 28.4% lower food items than required in the standard basket, and 16% less than standard energy requirements. For instance, the consumption of bread was more than recommended level while the share of dairy products, fruits, and red meat, was 64.4%, 52.1%, and 50% lower than the recommended amount, respectively. While the dietary patterns in rural areas of six provinces - Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Markazi, Isfahan, Hamedan, Zanjan, and Mazandaran - satisfied the standard dietary. The converse evidence was observed for Hormozgan, Semnan, Kerman, North Khorasan, Ilam, and Sistan-Baluchestan. Between comparison of provinces confirmed (i) a heterogenous consumption pattern, mostly, dominated by five types of behavioral patterns; (ii) non-significant effect between consumption pattern and geographical distribution; (iii) a more desirable consumption pattern depending on more suitable infrastructure, economic, and social indicators. To deal with the undesirable consequences of calorie shortage and non-standard consumption pattern, this study suggests a comprehensive plan regulating supportive policies, public awareness, sustainable agriculture, and educational programs about nutrition and market access. Nutrition in rural regions is influenced by economic, regional, social, cultural, and individual factors, and improving dietary health necessitates addressing these interconnected elements.
Agricultural Economics
M. Mahmoudi; H. Mohammadi; A. Karbasi
Abstract
IntroductionAccording to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 7.2 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population ...
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IntroductionAccording to United Nations reports, the world population will increase from 7.2 billion people to 9.9 billion people during the years (2016-2050) with 38% growth. With population growth, amount of demand for food consumption (in order to eliminate malnutrition and demand caused by population growth) will increase by 150 to 170 percent by 2050. Today, one of the problems and threats facing the realization of food security in human societies is existence of an unusual amount of agricultural product waste.Every year, about one third and approximately 1.3 billion tons of total food production consumed by humans with a monetary value of 936 billion dollars, it is lost or wasted, which means that 0.9 million hectares and 306 square kilometers of water required for the production of agricultural products are wasted every year. The presence of this amount of waste in Iran's agricultural products indicates a significant waste of resources in country, and management of the country's resources (especially water) according to Iran's climatic situation and forecasting and drawing the future. It is telling that (resources used in agricultural sector) will soon become an important challenge. Considering that in country, 93.5% of water resources are used in agriculture, other issues such as pollution of water reserves, transfer of agricultural water to other sectors and low efficiency of water consumption in agriculture, increasing demand for water, increasing periods drought, phenomenon of fine dust, human impact on natural resources, etc. affect the amount of agricultural production.Subgroups of fruits and vegetables have the largest share in the consumption basket of households, but there are no specific statistics for recent years about share of consumption per capita of households (separated by products used) in Iran. It is important to note that the amount of waste generated by consumers varies between 1 kg per household per week and 4.5 kg per person per week, depending on consumer behavior. Given the significance of agricultural inputs, particularly water, in the production of these agricultural products and their substantial share in household consumption, this research focuses on the fruit and vegetable subgroups. Materials and MethodsThe case study of this research acknowledges that, in addition to consumers in Mashhad, there is heterogeneity among retail and wholesale shops, as well as the city's main market squares, each contributing to varying percentages of agricultural product waste. These differences can fluctuate based on urban areas, necessitating a model that accounts for the heterogeneity within the studied population. Therefore, the multilevel Bayesian model was selected as the most appropriate tool, as discussed in the following section on the modeling methodology. Results and DiscussionBased on the results in Table (7), the gender variable, with a mean value of 0.8285 for its parameter distribution, falls within the estimated confidence interval. It is identified as one of the factors influencing the reduction of waste in fruit and vegetable products. Specifically, being a woman and having women manage household affairs (compared to men) leads to a reduction in waste. Regarding the education level of consumers, waste from fruit and vegetable products is significant only in the group with a diploma to bachelor's degree (compared to the group with education levels below a diploma). The negative sign of the average distribution of its parameter (-1.4599) indicates that this group produces more waste than those with lower education levels. The variable of household size also affects the amount of waste from fruit and vegetable products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.3151. An increase in household size is associated with a reduction in waste. Additionally, the number of people working in the family (mean parameter distribution = 0.3733) also reduces waste, likely because a higher number of working family members can lead to increased income, allowing for the purchase of higher-quality products. The relative price parameter of agricultural products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.1475, reduces the waste generated by consumers. As the relative price of agricultural products (e.g., fruits and vegetables) increases—when consumers compare the value of these products to other goods—they realize that consuming these products will result in less waste. Similarly, the parameter related to the distribution location of agricultural products, with a mean parameter distribution of 0.1744, also reduces the waste generated by consumers. This suggests that the more efficiently agricultural products are distributed, the less waste is produced. Suitable places for product distribution can give better access and power of choice to consumer, and based on this, consumer can avoid bulk purchases or worry about running out of products in nearby stores; He avoids and the amount of waste formed by him decreases. Product parameter (goods or services offered to customer) for agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = -0.1902) causes an increase in the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. In other words, with increase in the supply of products (fruits and vegetables), consumers become more willing to buy and consume (like consuming a specific product during the supply season), and this causes increase in number of purchases to affect the amount of waste generated. Parameter of promoting agricultural products (parameter distribution mean = 0.0683) reduces the waste formed in agricultural products by consumers. With better introduction of product and advertisements related to the production process until its consumption; consumer understands the value of the product and tries to reduce its waste. ConclusionThe research demonstrates that individual and marketing mix factors can effectively reduce waste. Beyond the importance of each link in the food supply chain, consumer-level interventions using the marketing mix (price, product, promotion, and location) can contribute to reducing agricultural product waste. Therefore, studying consumer behavior, considering individual and social characteristics and the influence of the marketing mix, represents a potentially low-cost solution for minimizing agricultural product waste.
Agricultural Economics
S.M.J. Esfahani; E. Barikani
Abstract
IntroductionMany governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major ...
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IntroductionMany governments provide subsidies to members of the agricultural supply chain to ensure food security, maintain economic stability, and uphold the social benefits associated with the agriculture sector. The conflicting goals of food security and environmental protection have become a major problem, especially in developing countries. On the one hand, the government aims to boost food production by offering agricultural subsidies. On the other hand, the excessive use of chemical inputs due to these subsidies has raised concerns about environmental pollution. Therefore, one of the most significant global challenges is to balance agricultural production to meet the increasing demand of the growing population while maintaining the quality of the environment. Any changes in government support policies for the agricultural sector can lead to fluctuations in input and product prices, directly impacting farmers' profits. As a result, these changes can influence cultivation patterns and the use of agricultural inputs, ultimately affecting the environment. Therefore, before implementing any policy changes, it is crucial to assess both the economic and environmental impacts and make informed decisions based on these considerations.Materials and MethodsThis study uses positive mathematical programming (PMP) on the environmental impact of chemical fertilizers’ subsidies change and transfer subsidies to crops in Zarandieh city of Markazi province. The necessary information was collected through the statistical sources of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad for the crop year 2023 for the three crops including irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, and silage corn, which occupies more than 85 percent of the cultivated area of this region. At the first stage, the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by each product was calculated, and then the environmental impact of different subsidy policies was investigated. To calculate the greenhouse gas emissions, the emission coefficient of each of the inputs that have been cited in various studies was used. To model and analyze the data, positive mathematical programming with the cost function approach was used. Excel and GAMS software has been used to run the models.Results and DiscussionThe results of the study showed that the highest amount of greenhouse gas emissions is related to corn silage, and electricity, diesel, and chemical fertilizers have the largest share of the greenhouse gas emissions. The simulation results for the region’s cultivation patterns, considering scenarios where only chemical fertilizers—N-fertilizer, P-fertilizer, and K-fertilizer—were used separately and together with increases of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, indicate that as input prices rise, both the cultivated area and farmers' income decrease. Additionally, increasing the price of P-fertilizer has a greater potential to reduce environmental impact compared to raising the price of other chemical fertilizers.To assess the environmental impact of reallocating subsidies from chemical inputs to agricultural products, a scenario was simulated in which the price of chemical inputs increased by 100%, while product prices rose by 5% and 10%, respectively. The model results revealed that the lowest environmental impact per hectare of crop production occurs when chemical fertilizer prices increase by 100% and product prices rise by 5%.Based on these findings, reallocating subsidies to agricultural products rather than production inputs appears to yield more favorable environmental outcomes. In other words, when the subsidy is allocated to the product instead of chemical inputs, the environmental impact of crop production in this area would be reduced and the amount of emissions per hectare of farm or million Tomans of gross profit would be less compared to other situations.ConclusionIt is necessary to support the agricultural sector to boost food production but these supports should be done with the least environmental impact. According to the findings of this study, if subsidies are given to agricultural products instead of inputs, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced while maintaining the area of crops and the amount of gross profit of farmers. The policy of setting a guaranteed price for basic agricultural products in Iran can be a suitable tool to realize this. In other words, transferring the credits allocated for purchasing chemical fertilizers to the guaranteed purchase of agricultural products will be an effective step in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and their impact, as well as maintaining the country's food security.
Agricultural Economics
A. Sani Heidary; E. Safari
Abstract
IntroductionIn the continuity of human life, agriculture as a strategic activity plays a key role in providing food. In addition, the agricultural sector plays an important role in economic development, social welfare and environmental sustainability of all countries. However, this sector is facing many ...
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IntroductionIn the continuity of human life, agriculture as a strategic activity plays a key role in providing food. In addition, the agricultural sector plays an important role in economic development, social welfare and environmental sustainability of all countries. However, this sector is facing many challenges in recent years. Some of its most important challenges include the increasing growth of the world's population, a 40% reduction in water and soil resources, the destruction of a quarter of agricultural land, climate change, a lack of specialized labor, poor access to financial resources, strict laws, and a decrease in the number of farmers due to a decrease in motivation. Therefore, in order to meet the growing demand for food and overcome its challenges, the agricultural sector is forced to look for new solutions such as adopting digital transformation enhanced by artificial intelligence technology. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has recently become increasingly prominent in the agricultural sector. AI-based solutions assist farmers in achieving higher productivity with fewer resources, ensuring the production of high-quality and healthy products, and accelerating the marketing process. Given the significance of AI technology in enhancing the overall efficiency of the agricultural sector, this research aims to identify the key predictors that influence the behavioral intention and adoption of AI technology in agricultural companies. Materials and MethodsThe main objective of this research is to determine the key predictors of behavioral intention and behavior of using artificial intelligence technology in agricultural companies through the combination of the developed UTAUT2 model and TOE factors. The statistical population of this research is the total employees of nine cultivation and industry of Razavi Agricultural Company, which are about 465 people. Data were collected by completing multidimensional questionnaires along with semi-structured interviews from households in 2023. In total, 250 questionnaires were completed. Data of 39 respondents were excluded due to missing values. The questionnaire is designed based on the seven-point Likert scale (strongly disagree = 1, strongly agree = 7). The questionnaire used in this research includes 14 constructs in the form of 60 items. Excel 2019 software was used to analyze the raw data of the questionnaire and SmartPLS software was used to test the research hypotheses. In order to guarantee the stability of the data, a complete bootstrap method with 5000 sub-samples was performed. Results and DiscussionThe results revealed that the values of Cronbach's alpha and CR for all constructs were higher than 0.7, which shows acceptable internal consistency of the model and adequate reliability of the research constructs. AVE scores and factor loading values for all constructs are above 0.5, which indicates the correct definition of constructs and high convergence between constructs and its items. The values of rho_A as an important reliability measure for PLS-SEM for all constructs are greater than the acceptable value of 0.7. The results of the Fornell-Larcker criteria and the Heterotrait-Monotrait ratio (HTMT) indicate that the model is confirmed in terms of the constructs' discriminative validity. In addition, the research model was able to explain 89.4 and 51.7 percent of the variance of the variables of behavioral intention and the behavior of people to use artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural sector. According to the results, all research hypotheses are confirmed and the behavioral intention to adopt artificial intelligence technology is positively and significantly influenced by expected performance, social effects, hope for effort, facilitating conditions, pleasure-seeking motivation, price-value, habit, trust in technology, technological aspects, organizational aspects, and environmental aspects. However, the fear of technology variable has a negative and significant impact on people's behavioral intention. ConclusionThis study highlights the determining the role of expected performance constructs, social influences, fear of technology, and organizational and environmental aspects compared to other constructs in predicting people's behavioral intention to adopt artificial intelligence technology in the agricultural sector and provides important information for different stakeholders. According to the results, it is suggested that the government should invest in the development of the necessary infrastructure for this technology and provide a platform for its development by establishing efficient laws and paying low-interest facilities. In addition, Designers should create user-friendly tools tailored to the agricultural conditions of the country.
Agricultural Economics
F. Fathi; M. Behnam
Abstract
IntroductionThe growing virtual water trade globally reflects economic principles associated with international trade, particularly the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Each nation tends to export products that utilize relatively abundant and inexpensive production factors while importing those that necessitate ...
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IntroductionThe growing virtual water trade globally reflects economic principles associated with international trade, particularly the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Each nation tends to export products that utilize relatively abundant and inexpensive production factors while importing those that necessitate scarce and costly resources. The strategic use of virtual water in the management of water resources is a critical issue, mainly, considering that a significant portion of Iran experiences arid and semi-arid conditions, leading to severe and increasing water shortages. Among the agricultural products that Iran requires are oilseeds, such as soybean and sunflower, which the country produces and imports in substantial quantities annually. Materials and MethodsThe present study aims to assess the trend of importing virtual water from oilseeds through trade partners and determine the effects of economic and environmental factors influencing their import during 2005-2020, utilizing the generalized gravity model. Economic and trade variables such as the ratio of Iran's GDP to other countries, import tariff ratio, real exchange rate growth, country risk index, distance between countries, and sanctions are considered. Environmental variables such as area under cultivation, access to water, and lack of access to water per capita are also included. The variables related to access and lack of access to water consist of four environmental factors: total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal, and total freshwater volume. Results and DiscussionThe virtual water trading model is considered a scientific model and a practical solution to address the water shortage crisis in countries, especially Iran. In this research, through gravity models, the determinants affecting the volume of oilseed imports to Iran were identified. The variables of the ratio of Iran's GDP to the trading partner country and the access to water of the trading partner country were effective in both estimations, while the variable of the import tariff ratio was not effective in any of them. The risk variables of the countries have also been effective in importing virtual water. The variables of access to water and lack of access to water are environmental variables that influence the model, similar to economic variables. Therefore, the import of oilseeds is affected by economic variables; however, since the importation of oilseeds is supported to meet the country's needs and government currency has been utilized during the studied period, the variable of real exchange rate growth has less effect on imports. On the other hand, the variables of access and lack of access to water, which consist of four environmental factors (total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal, and total freshwater volume), play an important role in the import of virtual water through oilseeds to Iran.The following suggestions can be made: Considering the significance of the variable distance between countries in the estimation, instead of meeting the demand for oilseeds from producers located at a large geographical distance, it is suggested to exchange these products with neighboring countries and regional markets if they are capable of producing these products. In other words, the Iranian government should accept the risk of importing oilseeds from neighboring and regional markets that are closer, rather than necessarily from the production hub. This may reduce the cost of importing this product by choosing these countries. Additionally, based on the role of the risk index, it is expected that countries with lower risk will be chosen as trading partners. Although the area under cultivation may be associated with a reduction in virtual water imports, considering the state of Iran's water resources and the need to import these two types of oilseeds, increasing the area under cultivation may not be feasible. Importing virtual water can play an important role in the sustainability of water resources while simultaneously meeting domestic needs. Based on the significance of access to and lack of access to water in the estimated relationships for soybean and sunflower production, certain countries have a relative advantage in cultivating these crops. Therefore, to enhance the management and sustainability of water resources, it is recommended to import from countries with greater water availability and higher production capacity. As a result, importing more virtual water supports the conservation of local water resources while ensuring the cultivation of these crops.
Agricultural Economics
S.M. Seyedan; M. Motaghed
Abstract
IntroductionEffective measures in grape production and processing are essential for understanding market needs. By leveraging acquired knowledge, products should be aligned with market demand, which requires a thorough understanding and application of the value chain. The value chain is a network of ...
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IntroductionEffective measures in grape production and processing are essential for understanding market needs. By leveraging acquired knowledge, products should be aligned with market demand, which requires a thorough understanding and application of the value chain. The value chain is a network of actors who are involved in the supply, production, processing, marketing, and consumption of a product or service, and its actors seek to realize added value in each of the links of the chain and add value as a whole. It is for the activities that take place along the chain. An efficient value chain plays a key role in reducing poverty and food security in the country and has inherent potential for the development of job opportunities. The benefits of the value chain include reducing production costs, increasing productivity, providing valuable services to farmers, a variety of new services with added value, innovation at a faster speed, creating new circles, creating more jobs, reducing rural poverty, transparency in the price of agricultural products, balance of supply and demand, improvement of quality and health of agricultural products, reduction of product waste, increase of product health quality, increase of real profit, consumer satisfaction, reduction of mediation and brokerage, increase of flexibility power and sustainability in production and export. Materials and MethodsIn this research, data was collected from each agent (link in the chain) using a questionnaire. Various methods exist for analyzing the value chain, with the SWOT analysis (identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, as well as determining strategic positioning) being the most significant. This method was utilized in the study and will be briefly explained in relation to the SWOT matrix analysis process. However, since the SWOT analytical matrix generates multiple strategies without prioritizing them, the QSPM matrix was employed to establish priorities. This matrix is used in the last stage of strategy development and for selecting and prioritizing strategies. This matrix prioritizes different strategy options according to their attractiveness score. Results and DiscussionIn the present study; 74 components in the template (15 strengths, 23 weaknesses, 19 threats and 17 opportunities) were extracted and categorized. To evaluate the internal factors of the grape value chain with an emphasis on its yield, the internal factors evaluation matrix (IFE) was used. In this matrix, the strengths and weaknesses were listed and scored using special coefficients and ranks to determine the final score of the evaluation of internal factors. The analysis of internal factors revealed a total score of 61.2, indicating that the grape value chain in Hamedan Province is in a strong position. In other words, its internal strengths outweigh its weaknesses. Similarly, the analysis of external factors showed a weighted score of 2.87. Therefore, the grape value chain in Hamedan has an external opportunity. In other words, the opportunities of the grape value chain are more than its threats. Conclusion and SuggestionsTo improve this situation, the raisin value chain model was designed based on observations and research findings. This model is an executive model that has five main actors including 1- Input supply link (without timely supply of inputs and without creating a basis for the development of a competitive environment in this link, one cannot hope for sustainable production and export), 2- The link of grape growers is 3- the circle of packaging and processing factories, 4- the circle of distribution and marketing, and 5- the circle of consumption and communication with customers. This model also has a support link (providing consulting, training, and support services to investors to help create and launch new businesses within the chain) that supports all the links in terms of structure, design, research, training, financial management, and resource management. Humanity supports. These measures attract investment, create employment, develop chain links and growth, and help to achieve the goals of economic and social development of the region. The most significant missing link in the grape value chain is the production and processing of the product under a specialized brand. Establishing these processes is essential for attracting foreign markets. Given the high quality of grapes in Hamedan Province and their potential to compete with international products, it is crucial to transform this potential into reality. This requires the development of high-quality processed products to gain a competitive edge and capture market share from competitors.
Agricultural Economics
R. Heydari; E. Javdan; M. Shabanzadeh Khoshrody
Abstract
IntroductionFood prices are an important indicator of societal well-being, and food inflation can deepen poverty in developing economies. Severe food price fluctuations not only affect food security in developing countries, but also affect economic growth and social stability. Any increase in food prices ...
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IntroductionFood prices are an important indicator of societal well-being, and food inflation can deepen poverty in developing economies. Severe food price fluctuations not only affect food security in developing countries, but also affect economic growth and social stability. Any increase in food prices can push many people back below the poverty line. Rising food prices hit low-income households hard, as the household food basket accounts for nearly half of household living expenses. Therefore, food price stability is of particular importance to policymakers trying to lift households above the poverty line. Food prices in Iran have always been on the rise, and even in recent years, the rate of food price growth has accelerated. Today, inflation, especially food inflation, remains a major problem in Iran, and policymakers are always trying to reduce food inflation. In this regard, and with the aim of controlling food prices, different policies have been implemented in Iran, and the effectiveness of these policies has been discussed. Therefore, understanding the behavior of food prices in response to macroeconomic factors is essential for policymakers to implement appropriate policies at the right time and place to keep domestic prices stable. In this regard, in the present study, the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables (money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and trade openness) affecting food inflation in Iran is examined using the nonlinear ARDL approach. Materials and MethodsThe main objective of this study is to examine the asymmetric effect of domestic macroeconomic factors on food prices in Iran using a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. According to the theoretical literature, in this study, it is assumed that food prices are a function of macroeconomic variables, including money supply (MS), GDP per capita (GDPER), exchange rate (RATE), trade openness (OPEN), and global economic policy uncertainty index (EPU). Therefore, in accordance with Shin et al. (2014), the NARDL model used in this study is developed to examine the asymmetric effect of domestic macroeconomic factors (for example, money supply) as follows: In the above relationship, each of the macroeconomic factors (including the money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, and trade openness) is separated into the sum of positive and negative components. In fact, two additional variables are created in each equation, one indicating an increase in the variable of interest with a positive sign and the other indicating a decrease with a negative sign. The variable of global economic policy uncertainty index also plays the role of a control variable. Due to the availability of data, the time period in this study is 1991 to 2022. Results and DiscussionThe results of the linear and nonlinear bounds test in the ARDL model showed that there is a long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables including money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate, trade openness, global economic policy uncertainty and food prices in Iran. In addition, the results of short-term and long-term symmetry tests using the Wald test showed that the effect of the exchange rate variable on food inflation in Iran is asymmetric in the long and short run, while the effect of the money supply and GDP per capita variables is asymmetric only in the long run; the effect of the trade openness variable is also symmetric in the short and long run and has a linear behavior. The results of the ARDL linear model estimation showed that in the short and long run, the effect of the growth of the variables of money supply, GDP per capita, exchange rate and global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran is positive and significant, while the effect of trade openness is negative and significant. The results of the NARDL model estimation also showed that the response of food inflation to increases and decreases in money supply and GDP growth is positive and significant, and their increase on food inflation is greater than the effect of their decrease. The response of food inflation in the long and short term to increases in the exchange rate is positive and significant, while the effect of decreasing the exchange rate in the long and short term is negative, but not statistically significant, and the effect of increasing the exchange rate on food inflation in the long term is greater than its effect in the short term. The effect of trade openness on food inflation is symmetric, with an increase in trade openness leading to a reduction in food inflation in both the short and long term. ConclusionLinking the prices of agricultural products to market conditions and liberalizing the market for these products is an appropriate method for coordinating the effects of macro policies and specific agricultural policies that should be considered by policymakers. Given the importance of the agricultural sector, the government's economic policies in relation to food prices will be of high importance and sensitivity. Considering the results of implementing contractionary monetary policies in coordination with other Central Bank policies, increasing investment and efforts to increase productivity in the agricultural sector, appropriate foreign exchange policies are recommended to prevent unreasonable increases in the exchange rate, and reducing tariffs and trade restrictions to increase trade openness.
Agricultural Economics
H. Hashemzadeh; N. Yousefian; S. Esfandiari Bahraseman; A. Karbasi; A. Firoozzare
Abstract
Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these ...
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Urban retail markets are state-owned retail markets that were recently established in Iran to increase the welfare of consumers and producers. To achieve this goal and expand its presence in the Iranian retail sector, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior within these markets. This study examines the various socio-economic factors influencing consumers' decisions in the retail market by using the C4.5 algorithm. The data were collected using a random sampling method through a survey of 189 consumers, focusing on the population of Mashhad, Iran, during 2019-2020. Results revealed that awareness of available discounts significantly drives consumer choices in urban retail markets. Despite existing discounts, awareness among consumers remains low, suggesting a need to review promotional strategies within the marketing mix. The study also identifies previous purchases from urban markets, household income, and education as influential factors. Findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, market strategists, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the effectiveness of local retail markets in Iran. By leveraging insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics, these markets can thrive, benefiting Iran's retail sector and overall economy. Following the study, recommendations such as enhanced promotional campaigns, education-oriented strategies, loyalty programs, collaborations with local producers, and inclusive marketing policies was made aim to improve access for all consumers to urban retail markets.
Agricultural Economics
F. Vajdi Hokm Abad; H. Rafiee; A.H. Chizari; S. Yazdani; S.S. Hosseini
Abstract
In contemporary marketing, maintaining and enhancing customer loyalty toward a company's products or services has become a primary focus. Among the factors influencing customer loyalty is ethical marketing, a field of applied ethics related to the principles governing behavior, advertising, and regulation ...
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In contemporary marketing, maintaining and enhancing customer loyalty toward a company's products or services has become a primary focus. Among the factors influencing customer loyalty is ethical marketing, a field of applied ethics related to the principles governing behavior, advertising, and regulation in marketing. Over the past two decades, ethical consumerism has grown in importance due to increasing social and environmental concerns. This study examines the impact of ethical components on Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) for dairy product consumers in Tehran in 2023. A total of 710 questionnaires were completed, and the GWRFM method was employed to extract the necessary information for calculating CLV. The results revealed a high frequency of clusters with low lifetime value. In the subsequent phase, multinomial logit regression was utilized to analyze the effect of ethical components on CLV, highlighting the significant positive impact of adherence to industry regulations and acceptance of social responsibility. Therefore, it is recommended that stakeholders in the dairy industry assure customers of their compliance with regulations and social responsibility to elevate them to higher-value clusters and foster loyalty. By respecting ethical norms, a substantial portion of consumers of cheese, yogurt, and ayran products may transition toward becoming valuable customers in this sector.
Agricultural Economics
S. Sadafi Abkenar; A.H. Chizari; H. Rafiee; H. Salami
Abstract
Iran Mercantile Exchange is striving to become a regional hub for price discovery of essential commodities and raw materials, providing producers with financial instruments and risk management tools. This study investigates the optimal hedge ratio in future and commodity deposit receipts (spot) contracts ...
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Iran Mercantile Exchange is striving to become a regional hub for price discovery of essential commodities and raw materials, providing producers with financial instruments and risk management tools. This study investigates the optimal hedge ratio in future and commodity deposit receipts (spot) contracts for Round Fandoghi pistachios. Using the BEKK-VAR-TARCH model, the impact of seasonal and daily volatility on returns and hedge ratios was assessed over the period from 19 October 2018 to 18 January 2022. The results showed that volatility on specific days of the week and during different seasons affect speculative and investment decisions in the commodity exchange. Particularly, sharp volatility during certain periods can lead to significant changes in returns and hedge ratios. These findings suggest that investors should update their investment strategies based on seasonal and daily volatilities. Additionally, the importance of utilizing financial instruments suited to market conditions for managing existing risks was confirmed. Ultimately, investors, speculators, and policymakers in the commodity exchange are advised to pay special attention to temporal changes and existing volatilities when composing their investment portfolios and adjusting hedge strategies. Furthermore, the use of futures contracts and derivative instruments is recommended as risk management approaches. This study contributes to a better understanding of volatility behavior and offers strategies for improved risk management in the Round Fandoghi pistachio market.
Agricultural Economics
Z. Zarei Dastgerdi; Kh. Kalantari; A. Asadi
Abstract
The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role in promoting national development and rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector are of main concerns of the relevant institutional actors. In this regard, the current research ...
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The agricultural sector in developing countries plays an important role in promoting national development and rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector are of main concerns of the relevant institutional actors. In this regard, the current research was conducted with the aim of identifying scenarios of sustainable agricultural development in the catchment area of Zayandeh River in Isfahan province. The present research was applied, of descriptive-survey type. The statistical population was experts related to agricultural development in the province. To collect data, library sources, questionnaires and interviews were used. Delphi method and interviews with elites and executives were used to identify the primary components and drivers effective on the sustainable development of agriculture in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province. The snowball technique was used to select the experts. Finally, 8 key drivers were identified and separated in order to explain the research variables in a strategic format. Based on this, in the section related to the expression of research priorities in two direct and indirect modes, these 8 key factors have been repeated in different priorities. Questionnaires were distributed among 25 experts. In this study, five plausible scenarios were identified for forecasting the future of sustainable agricultural development by considering potential outcomes based on key factors and their similarities or differences across the categories of favorable, static, and critical scenarios. Based on their total scores, which range from 85 to 109, two scenarios were identified as the most likely: one favorable scenario and one critical scenario.
Agricultural Economics
M. Haji-Rahimi; P. Alizadeh; F. Sharifi
Abstract
The broiler chicken industry is a vital agricultural subsector in Kurdistan Province, Iran, with 716 production units in the province and a 5% growth from 2019 to 2024. However, there is no study to evaluate the comparative advantage indices or competitive capacity of broiler chicken production in Kurdistan ...
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The broiler chicken industry is a vital agricultural subsector in Kurdistan Province, Iran, with 716 production units in the province and a 5% growth from 2019 to 2024. However, there is no study to evaluate the comparative advantage indices or competitive capacity of broiler chicken production in Kurdistan Province. This study aims to assess these factors using the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) for 2023. Findings indicate that Kurdistan Province has a comparative advantage in broiler chicken production, as shown by the Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) ratio and Social Benefit-Cost Ratio (SBCR), across all production capacities. The Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) for the product reveals that the market price of live broiler chicken is lower than its shadow price, effectively imposing indirect taxation on producers. Conversely, the NPC for inputs shows that input shadow prices exceed market prices, suggesting indirect subsidies for poultry inputs. The Effective Protection Coefficient (EPC), which combines these effects, indicates effective government support for the industry. Competitiveness indices suggest that broiler chicken production in Kurdistan Province is viable both domestically and internationally. The findings suggest that the broiler chicken industry of Kurdistan could compete in regional markets, particularly Iraq market, even without supportive policies in form of input subsidies, provided price suppression is eliminated and market-based pricing is implemented. Thereby, this study suggested transitioning from interventionist policies to establishing a transparent and competitive market infrastructure to ensure sustainable growth in broiler chicken production.
Agricultural Economics
M. Bahrami Nasab; A. Firoozzare; A. Dourandish; M. Sabouhi; M. Ghorbani
Abstract
Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture in arid regions which its over-extraction has led to significant challenges of declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management by employing an inclusive group decision-making approach ...
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Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture in arid regions which its over-extraction has led to significant challenges of declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management by employing an inclusive group decision-making approach involving diverse stakeholders, with a focus on farmers. Overlooking the participation of farmers in the decision-making approach led to ineffective policies. Utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, specifically the fuzzy Shannon entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques, the research prioritizes strategies for reducing groundwater consumption in the Safi-Abad region of North Khorasan, Iran. Qualitative data from stakeholder interviews provided insights into the challenges and opportunities related to groundwater use, revealing two primary strategies: (i) transitioning to low water-demand crops; and (ii) adopting modern irrigation systems. These approaches not only promise significant reductions in water usage but also support sustainable agricultural practices. The findings highlighted the importance of stakeholder collaboration in implementing effective water management policies, ensuring responsible resource use, and securing long-term viability. This study served as a model for future research, advocating for mixed methods integrating qualitative and quantitative analyses to inform policy recommendations and improve water resource management.
Agricultural Economics
W. Qelich
Abstract
IntroductionGlobal environmental changes have become a significant challenge for humanity, highlighting the need for robust support for environmental projects across all dimensions, including financial and economic. Integrating ethics and human and social values with environmental concerns in economic ...
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IntroductionGlobal environmental changes have become a significant challenge for humanity, highlighting the need for robust support for environmental projects across all dimensions, including financial and economic. Integrating ethics and human and social values with environmental concerns in economic activities creates a new approach for sectors such as banking, manufacturing, industry, and insurance, reshaping their operations in response to these challenges. It is necessary to put aside the purely market-oriented approaches focused on the rapid development of financial markets at any cost, so that other policies with greater health can replace them. Meanwhile, the concept called "green banking" is one of the most important examples of this support. This kind of banking, as an important part of ethical banking, plays a special role in protecting the environment. With a comprehensive explanation of green banking and by using theoretical studies and international experiences and obtaining opinions from relevant experts and experts, this research identified the factors affecting the trend of the country's banking network towards green banking by using the Delphi method, questionnaire analysis and Friedman's test. Materials and MethodsThe current research is completely practical in terms of its purpose and qualitative and descriptive-analytical in terms of implementation method. First, by using the Delphi method, the factors affecting the tendency of the banking to implement green banking are identified, and then the relevant data is collected using a questionnaire. In the following, the known factors are ranked and prioritized with Friedman's test. The statistical population of this research was all managers and banking experts in Tehran. In the Delphi method, a standard statistical sample typically ranges from 10 to 30 questionnaires, with 28 initially considered for this research. After follow-up, 23 questionnaires were completed and included in the analysis. Additionally, 142 questionnaires were prepared and collected for Friedman's test implementation. At this stage, a Likert scale was used for the research questions, scored by managers, branch heads, and banking experts. A combined method has been used in the collection of research statistical data. At first, the concepts of green banking and ethical banking have been explained by using the library method and conducting free theoretical and field studies. In the following, with the Delphi technique and obtaining the opinions of relevant experts and experts, the most important factors affecting the tendency of the banking network to implement green banking have been calculated. In the following, the remaining important factors have been added to the set of factors with the method of intellectual generation. Results and DiscussionBased on the results of the research, four main economic, structural, managerial and social criteria were identified in order to influence this tendency. In the sub-criteria section, the high inflation rate, the relative cheapness of energy prices and the presence of profitable parallel markets along with green deposits are mentioned as the most important reasons for the low tendency towards green banking. Also, the laws and regulations and the legal system, the recruitment system, the promotion and encouragement of bank managers and employees, the central bank's supervisory system, the senior managers' attitudes towards environmental issues, corporate governance, the bank's internal supervision, the attention to green banking in the selection and decision Customers, society's attitude towards environmental issues and the culture of demand among the most important sub-criteria affecting the trend of the Iranian banking towards green banking have been evaluated and introduced. ConclusionThis research tried to identify and analyze the factors affecting the tendency of Iranian banking network towards green banking with a more comprehensive explanation of green banking and by using theoretical studies and international experiences and obtaining opinions from relevant experts and experts. Based on the research results, four main structural, economic, managerial and social factors influencing this trend were identified. Surveys showed that in the first place, economic factors were more effective than other factors in the trend of the banking towards green banking. Among the study factors categories, structural, managerial and social factors have the most influence on the trend of the country's banking network towards green banking. It is suggested that for the greater desire and tendency of the banking to implement and realize green banking, it is necessary to improve the economic components with the aim of more stabilization, inflation control, strengthening of supervisory dimensions and balance sheet reform of the banking network. Also, reforming the legal system in the supervision and support of green bankers, reforming the incentive and recruitment system, strengthening the attitude of senior bank managers and the general public to the necessity of protecting the environment, as well as reviewing the frameworks and processes of corporate governance in banks with a green perspective to encourage Iranian banking, is necessary towards green banking. In the meantime, undoubtedly the role of the central bank as the supervisory body and upstream regulatory body in reforming the general structures of the banking system and improving the management situation of the public sector of the banking network can be useful and effective in increasing the tendency of banks to establish green banking and comply with its criteria.
Agricultural Economics
S. Kalhori; L. Abolhasani; M. Sabouhi; M. Sarkhosh
Abstract
IntroductionGiven the rapid process of industrialization, expansion of agriculture, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and the intensification of climatic conditions, air quality has rapidly deteriorated in recent years. One of the most important issues and challenges facing the world today is air pollution, ...
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IntroductionGiven the rapid process of industrialization, expansion of agriculture, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and the intensification of climatic conditions, air quality has rapidly deteriorated in recent years. One of the most important issues and challenges facing the world today is air pollution, particularly PM2.5 pollution. This problem has evolved into one of the most complex and serious dilemmas affecting the lives of people worldwide. Exposure to high levels of air pollution has negative health implications. The present study aims to measure the willingness to pay of Mashhad city residents for the improvement of PM2.5 pollution and identify the factors influencing this willingness to pay. Materials and MethodsThis study used contingent valuation and the multiple-bound discrete choice model to calculate individuals' willingness to pay. The research focused on the certainty level of "definitely yes" and generated 13 different proposals ranging from 10,000 Toman to 200,000 Toman. The ordered logit regression model was employed to analyze the factors influencing the willingness of Mashhad citizens to pay for air quality improvement. The study collected 343 questionnaires from Mashhad city residents, considering variables such as education level, age, gender, marital status, family size, presence of children, chronic respiratory diseases and individuals' income. The dependent variable was the public's willingness to pay for improving air quality regarding PM2.5. Results and DiscussionThe study found that a significant portion of respondents were willing to pay for air quality improvement. About 22.45% were willing to pay less than 10,000 Toman, 60.06% were willing to pay between 45,000 and 58,000 Toman, 5.83% were willing to pay between 95,000 and 120,000 Toman, and 11.66% were willing to pay between 155,000 and 200,000 Toman. The average willingness to pay for PM2.5 pollutant improvement in Mashhad was estimated to be 55,488 Toman. Education, age, respiratory diseases, income, and family size were found to affect willingness to pay. Conclusion Improving air quality and reducing pollution requires costly efforts and collaboration from society. This research examines individuals' willingness to financially contribute to air quality enhancement. Factors influencing their willingness to pay are also studied. Based on the findings, it is recommended that the government and municipal authorities impose taxes and levies on polluting sectors, considering the calculated value of air pollution and its sources. Educational programs tailored to diverse educational backgrounds, along with technology and social media, can raise environmental awareness among youth. Developing cost-effective public transportation systems and providing discounts for low-income individuals can also help reduce pollution. Financial programs and incentives for cleaner resources are another solution for improving air quality.
Agricultural Economics
M. Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody; E. Javdan; K. Shemshadi
Abstract
IntroductionDuring the last decade, due to the increase in food prices, the cost of a healthy diet in Iran has greatly increased. Although the government's support policies have aimed at improving the living conditions of households, but the cost and income information of the Iranian Statistics Center ...
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IntroductionDuring the last decade, due to the increase in food prices, the cost of a healthy diet in Iran has greatly increased. Although the government's support policies have aimed at improving the living conditions of households, but the cost and income information of the Iranian Statistics Center shows that due to inflationary conditions and its impact on real income and purchasing power of consumers, these programs have not had the necessary effect in reducing poverty and food insecurity. Reducing poverty and increasing the food security index is a requirement for independent countries like Iran. In this regard, knowing the current situation of poverty, food insecurity and factors influencing it, is not only the main condition for preparing future plans, but is necessary to continue this work with the aim of monitoring and evaluating the results of implemented plans and actions. Materials and MethodsIn the present study, the spatial distribution of poverty and food insecurity in the urban areas of Iran in 1401 has been investigated and then the factors affecting food insecurity have been identified. In order to achieve these goals, the nutritional performance matrix was drawn and calculated per capita calories in 1401 using the household income-expenditure information of Iran Statistics Center. The Aggregate Household Food Security Index (AHFSI) and the Foster, Greere and Thorbeke (FGT) poverty index were calculated and based on these indices, the spatial distribution of poverty and food insecurity in urban areas of Iran was analyzed. Finally, the impact of economic and demographic variables on food insecurity was analyzed in the framework of the logit model. Results and DiscussionAccording to the results, the urban areas of the country are in low food security conditions; so that, only 45% of people have food security and about 55% of the residents of urban areas are either facing food insecurity or are on the border of food insecurity. On the other hand, the per capita calorie intake in the urban areas of the country is 2540 kcal, and generally these calories are supplied from cereals. In addition, there is inequality in the intake of calories in different provinces of the country, and the average intake of calories varies between 1988-3196 kcal among the provinces. Examining the status of food poverty indicators also shows that the average head count, gap and intensity of poverty in urban areas are 55.1%, 15.2% and 6% respectively. Based on these indicators, it can be said that 55.1% of the population of the urban areas of the country had food poverty in 1401 and the calorie intake of the poor households in these areas was 15.2% less than the minimum required daily calories; therefore, to eliminate poverty, the caloric intake of poor households should be increased by 15.2%. Finally, the results of the logit model estimation showed that the variables of age, employment status, working hours of the head of the household, subsidy, income and food diversity have a positive and significant effect on the food security of the households, but the Family size has a negative effect on the food security. In addition, the two variables gender and literacy of the head of the household did not have a significant effect on the food security in urban areas of Iran. ConclusionIn this regard, although the long-term solution is to increase household purchasing power, stabilize and reduce commodity prices through strengthening production and supply, but in the short-term, increasing salaries and wages in line with the inflation rate and increasing social support programs for the low income deciels and weak society should be taken into consideration. In other words, income policies that can directly or indirectly increase the level of income and thus the purchasing power of the household, can be considered as a scientific and effective solution for food security. Moreover, the social support and poverty alleviation programs should be targeted and applied according to the needs and deficiencies in different geographical, demographic and income conditions. Finally, it should be acknowledged that improving the nutritional literacy of households can increase the nutritional knowledge and awareness of households, and therefore, by improving the variety and quality of the food they consume, it can lead to an increase in food security in urban areas of Iran.
Agricultural Economics
F. Razzaghi Borkhani; T. Azizi Khalkheili; A.A. Barati
Abstract
IntroductionThe shortage of freshwater resources is one of the primary crises the world faces, despite the constant availability of renewable water sources. As a result, the rising risks associated with water scarcity are a critical concern. The water crisis reduces crops production and negatively affects ...
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IntroductionThe shortage of freshwater resources is one of the primary crises the world faces, despite the constant availability of renewable water sources. As a result, the rising risks associated with water scarcity are a critical concern. The water crisis reduces crops production and negatively affects food security. Due to the increase in demand for food, agriculture section is under more pressure because of both water crisis and more demand for food. Agricultural sector has been also facing with water shortage due to climate changes caused by the more global warming and low precipitation. Water crisis and climate changes leading to a decrease in the crops production. Now, agriculture and livelihood of villagers has become unstable more than any time. Considering the importance of irrigated farming in Mazandaran province in the country's food security, the present study was conducted with the aim of identifying the most important variables that affecting water security in Mazandaran province. Materials and MethodsThe statistical population of the research included 16 subject experts with research or executive experience in the fields related to water studies, water security and climate change. The selection of them was done in a purposeful way. The data collection tool was a researcher made questionnaire and the data collection method was face-to-face interview. At first, to identify the variables involved in water security a subject literature review and several semi-structured interviews with subject experts were conducted. Then, the experts were asked to evaluate the cross-effects of the identified variables through pairwise comparisons and in the form of the MICMAC questionnaire. Finally, the data were analysis using MICMAC software. Results and DiscussionAccording to the results, among the studied variables, "knowledge and environmental literacy of villagers" and "reduction of precipitation due to climate change" (input variables) are two important key variables that directly and indirectly affect water security and therefore should be considered. The variables "best management of appropriate farm operations", "volume and diversity of water resources" and "good management and governance of agricultural water" are intermediate variables, with high impact and high dependence. Based on the direct influence network intensity of the key variables involved in water security, variables such as “best management of suitable farm operations”, “good management and governance of agricultural water”, “the degree of resilience of farmers to adapt to climate change” play a central and sensitive role. Based on the indirect relationships, “best management of appropriate farm operations”, “the degree of resilience of farmers to adapt to climate change”, “risk management of ecological hazards and climate change” have the greatest indirect effect on other variables and should be considered by policy makers and planners in this field. ConclusionWater crisis is a major challenge for agricultural activities and consequently for food security. Considering the vital role that Mazandaran province plays in the agricultural products production and as a result food security, the present study examined the most important variables affecting food security. The findings of this study showed that "good management and governance of agricultural water" has the most direct impact on water crisis management. Good water governance can be taken into consideration with the relative strengthening and synergistic participation of public and private sectors and non-governmental organizations in line with the planning and implementation of food security policy with the water-energy-food nexus approach. The role of increasing the environmental knowledge and literacy of villagers by providing effective educational-promotional services such as farm filed school is very important on the farmer's resilience and adaptability. On the other hand, variables such as good water management and governance, development of new irrigation systems and technologies, zoning of agricultural lands and the explanation of the appropriate cultivation pattern for each zone (such as planting crops with low water demand and high added value include medicinal plants) are undeniable impact on the livelihood resilience of the farmer's family and adaptation to climate change conditions. Diversify the livelihood resources of farming households with the participation of household women, promoting climate-oriented businesses that are compatible with climate changes (such as agricultural tourism and handicrafts), using drought-resistant species, changing the date of cultivation, developing greenhouse cultivation, medicinal plants and modernization of irrigation, change of history and cultivation pattern play important roles on the resilience of farmers to adapt climate change.