M. Bahrami Nasab; A. Dourandish; M.R. Kohansal
Abstract
Determining the optimal pattern for growing crops in accordance with the availability of the resources and risk factors as well as the uncertainty of agriculture sector would help the farmers, managers and economic planners in selecting the type of the product and the level of cultivation. Fuzzy programming ...
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Determining the optimal pattern for growing crops in accordance with the availability of the resources and risk factors as well as the uncertainty of agriculture sector would help the farmers, managers and economic planners in selecting the type of the product and the level of cultivation. Fuzzy programming model with Interval programming approach is used in this study to determine the optimal cultivation pattern in the Esfarayen county while taking terms of uncertainty into consideration. The required data were gathered via 128 questionnaire and interviews with the farmers of the region as simple random sampling in 2013. Using different levels of Alpha cut in the model made the whole parameter-related fuzzy data to access the optimization process fractionally. Models assessments results with perspective to optimistic and pessimistic conditions in accordance with various Alpha cuts show the benefit increases in optimistic conditions while decreasing in conservative ones due to the increase in the level of uncertainty and risk or expansion of fluctuations periphery due to smaller Alpha cuts. Forage maize, Red beans and wheat in most case scenarios are economical as well as optimum crops for cultivation. In order to improve the farmers’ money-making situation along with optimal usage of production sources, encouraging and supportive policies to be performed by Agriculture- Jehad (Ministry of Agriculture) of Northern Khorasan or the Esfarayen county is recommended.
M. Homayounifar; F. Rastegaripour
Abstract
In the present study, water allocation of Latian Dam between agricultural products was evaluated by using inexact two-stage optimization model and the final results were compared to a fuzzy interval. Data were collected from the Regional Water and Agricultural Organization of Tehran province for 1991 ...
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In the present study, water allocation of Latian Dam between agricultural products was evaluated by using inexact two-stage optimization model and the final results were compared to a fuzzy interval. Data were collected from the Regional Water and Agricultural Organization of Tehran province for 1991 to 2009 years. The results showed that by using interval fuzzy programming, 63%, 69%, 49% and 33% of water requirements of barley, agricultural products, vegetables and forage maize crops would be required at the best condition, respectively but the final amount of water allocated to wheat is not known accurately. Also by using inexact two-stage optimization model in the case that water demand reaches to its lowest value, the system administrator works conservatively, and promises low water demand goal to the consumers. This will cause water shortage compared to the optimum condition. But when the target water demand reaches to the highest level, the manager put the water optimistically to the consumers. In this case, water shortage variable would increase in comparison to the optimum case. Comparison of the two models showed that the inexact fuzzy two-stage optimization model simultaneously increases system profit and uncertainty.