H. Salami; M. Bastani
Abstract
Introduction: The persistence of rice imports while domestic production shows an increase over time has resulted in forming this hypothesis among rice producers in Iran that import of the rice is unjustified. This study is seeking to evaluate this hypothesis.
Materials and Methods: The relationship ...
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Introduction: The persistence of rice imports while domestic production shows an increase over time has resulted in forming this hypothesis among rice producers in Iran that import of the rice is unjustified. This study is seeking to evaluate this hypothesis.
Materials and Methods: The relationship between the import of rice and the quantities of domestic production as well as the other theoretically possible factors explaining import over period 1981-2014, including domestic/world market relative price, exchange rate, domestic income, population, tariff rate are investigated using exploratory data analysis (EDA) approach. In addition, the relationship between import and these factors is quantified using ECM econometric methodology. Furthermore, the VAR framework is utilized to specify causality between the above-mentioned variables and quantities of rice imported.
Results and Discussion: Results from EDA revealed that there is not a clear relationship between the quantities of domestically produced rice and the imported quantities, while such a relationship is shown between per capita crude oil revenue and the quantities of rice imported. In addition, the quantities of imported rice are not related to the domestic/world price ratio. Moreover, EDA shows a decreasing trend in real domestic price of rice. Results from EDA are supported by the co-integration and ECM methodology. The Granger causality between per capita crude oil revenue and the quantities of rice imported which was tested within VAR framework indicates that there is a one way causality from the first variable to the second one. Furthermore, the estimated ECM shows that the effect of per capita crude oil revenue on quantities of imported rice is higher in log relative to the short run. A one-dollar increase in per capita crude oil revenue results in 360 metric tons import of rice in the long run while the same one dollar increase will result in 290 metric tons import of rice in the short run. These results support the hypothesis that import of the rice is an unstructured import which may hurt domestic rice producers. Finally, calculation of the intra industry trade index indicates that intra-industry trade theory cannot explain the increasing trend of rice import in Iran.
Conclusions: Given that the per capita oil revenue is the main determinant of the rice imports, besides the fact that EDA shows a decreasing trend in real domestic price (terms of trade) of rice and reaching below one led to the conclusion that the unjustified import hypothesis is confirmed in Iran. Accordingly, a revise in rice import is suggested. Specifically, decoupling rice import from crude oil revenues and limiting import, using price elasticity information, to keep an increase in the price of this commodity equivalent to the CPI growth rate for domestic producers is suggested.
R. Moghaddasi; Z. Golriz Ziaee
Abstract
AbstractThis study investigates casual relationship between CO2 emission and gross domestic product per capita in five different country groups, using cross- country data for the period 1960-2007. To achieve the purpose, the co- integration test and error correction models are applied. Results confirm ...
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AbstractThis study investigates casual relationship between CO2 emission and gross domestic product per capita in five different country groups, using cross- country data for the period 1960-2007. To achieve the purpose, the co- integration test and error correction models are applied. Results confirm casual relationships between the two variables. A unilateral relationship between GDP and CO2 emission was founded for countries with low and upper middle income and a bilateral relationship for countries with lower middle income and OECDs nations. Using world data, the relationship between GDP and CO2 emission was found bilateral. Furthermore, estimation of long term relationship between CO2 and GDP indicates that all countries are placed at the point ASC of the Kuznets curve. This indicates that for all countries increase of income raise CO2 emission in average. However, the slope of this curve was found increasing for high level income countries and decreasing for low level income countries.JEL: C33; O40; Q25
M. Daneshvar Kakhki; R. Heidari Kamalabadi
Abstract
AbstractThis study is an attempt to investigate the influence of targeting subsidies on price transmission pattern in Iran's egg market. The targeting subsidies plan was imposed by 20 December 2010. Using of daily Price time series data, the study was conducted during December 2009 to October 2011. Using ...
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AbstractThis study is an attempt to investigate the influence of targeting subsidies on price transmission pattern in Iran's egg market. The targeting subsidies plan was imposed by 20 December 2010. Using of daily Price time series data, the study was conducted during December 2009 to October 2011. Using ECM model, price transmission models were estimated for the two periods (e.g. before and after imposing the targeting subsidies plan. Results present a decrease in the transmission speed of increasing and decreasing of the wholesale price after the targeting subsidies plan. Comparison between significant levels of negative and non-negative residuals variables indicated that negative deviations from long-run equilibrium relationship are not adjustable. Having compared the price transmission elasticities in long run with short run, the amount and value of transmission elasticities has been reducing after imposing the targeting subsidies plan. The comparison of symmetric price transmission tests show that the targeting subsidies plan lead to the asymmetric of price transmission Iran's egg market. It is concluded that improvement of infrastructure, reduction of government intervention and creating producers’ cooperation is effective to improve the daily price transmission of Iran's egg market.
M. Aazamzadeh Shooroki; S. Khalilian
Abstract
Providing of food products for increasing population, enhancing food security, increasing of production and foreign incomes are among the major program purposes of each country and monetary policies are one of the methods that immediately affected on food price and on major agriculture variables. Time ...
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Providing of food products for increasing population, enhancing food security, increasing of production and foreign incomes are among the major program purposes of each country and monetary policies are one of the methods that immediately affected on food price and on major agriculture variables. Time series analysis was used for studying the impacts of monetary policies effect on food price index (FPI) in 1373-2006 in this investigation. For this purpose, money supply, exchange rate and interest rate variables were used for representation of monetary policy variables. ARDL method was used for estimation of this model. Results showed that was a long-run and positive linkage between monetary policy variables and food price index (FPI) that is expectable theoretically. Also government by using of monetary policies can control of food price index (FPI) and supporting of food security. Results obtained from error correction model showed that great speed was toward long-run equilibrium.
JEL Classification: e5, e52, q18