Agricultural Economics
H. Fouladi; H. Amirnejad; S. Shirzadi Laskookalayeh
Abstract
IntroductionIn recent decades, the issue of climate change has become one of the global issues and has affected the agricultural sector. The continuation of agriculture regardless of the water shortage crisis has had an inappropriate effect on the sustainability and growth of this sector. On the other ...
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IntroductionIn recent decades, the issue of climate change has become one of the global issues and has affected the agricultural sector. The continuation of agriculture regardless of the water shortage crisis has had an inappropriate effect on the sustainability and growth of this sector. On the other hand, the destructive effect of excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides on water, soil, health of ecosystems, humans and other living beings is undeniable. For this reason, the void of using an efficient model that can provide all economic and environmental aspects at the same time was completely felt. The aim of this study was to provide an optimal cropping pattern using the integrated method of Goal and Grey planning. For this purpose, the farmers of the agronomy sub-sector of Tajan Basin were selected as the statistical population. In this regard, time series information was collected from the aggregation of the average data of 401 settlements located in this area during the years 2017-2021 from the annual reports of experts. Materials and MethodsThe Linear Programming (LP) Model quantifies an optimal way of integrating constraints to satisfy the objective function to optimize crop production and profits for irrigation farmers. To use LP, one must convert the problem into a mathematical model. To do this, an objective such as maximizing profit or minimizing losses is required. The model must also include decision variables that affect those objectives, and constraints that limit what user can do. Therefore, the LP Model is a single-objective method. Goal Programming (GP) is an extension of LP in which targets are specified for a set of constraints. GP is used to perform three types of analysis: Determining the required resources to achieve a desired set of objectives. Determining the degree of attainment of the goals with the available resources. Providing the best satisfying solution under a varying amount of resources and priorities of the goals. Thus, the GP model is a multi-objective method. The Grey system theory is identified as an effective methodology that can be used to solve uncertain problems with partially known information. Grey modelling approach uses accident data for estimating the model parameters. The model can reflect the dynamics, balance the conflicting the multidimensional targets of cropping patterns, and promoting the sustainable use of cultivated land. For achieving different goals in unstable economic and environmental conditions, we used a Goal-Grey model that was obtained from the integration of Goal programing and Grey Programing. The Goal-Grey model, by considering the uncertainty in the data, leads to overlap between the economic and environmental goals and provides the scope of cultivation for the selected products. Results and DiscussionBy estimating the Linear Programming (LP) Model, crops like wheat and canola are removed from the cropping pattern, while the cultivation areas for barley and high-yielding long-grain rice increase by 644% and 31%, respectively. In contrast, the cultivation areas for high-quality long-grain rice and maize decrease by 89% and 10%, respectively. Implementing this model boosts the gross profit of farmers in the Tajan region by 14% solely through adjusting the crop composition, without altering the current input levels. Additionally, the findings show that applying the LP Model results in fertilizer savings of 5%, 13%, and 10% for phosphate, nitrogen, and potash, respectively. The amount of herbicide and fungicide consumption in the LP Model is exactly equal to the current model of the region. However, the implementation of this model will lead to a 5% increase in the consumption of insecticides poison. The amount of irrigation water consumption in the LP Model was calculated to be 2% less than the current model of the region. In addition, the results indicate that by estimating the Goal-Grey Model, only canola is removed from the cropping pattern. Also, in order to achieve the defined goals in this study, the cultivation area of wheat and maize should be equal to 208 and 7356 hectares respectively. However, the flexibility of input usage enables adjustments to other crop cultivation areas, facilitating high-quality long-grain rice production on 970 to 18,157 hectares. Plus, the cultivation area of long-grain rice can vary from 7654 to 9995 hectares. In this model, barley can be removed from the crop composition like the linear pattern or cultivated on a maximum of 2553 hectares. The implementation of the Goal-Grey model will lead to a maximum 2% increase in the gross profit of the farmers of Tajan region compared to the current model of this region. Also, by implementing the Goal-Grey Model, on average, phosphate, nitrogen, and potash fertilizer consumption is saved by 16, 27, and 20 percent, respectively. In addition, with the implementation of the Goal-Grey Model, the consumption of agricultural pesticides will decrease from 733 to 355 thousand liters on average. ConclusionThe LP Model is designed based on current regional conditions; however, as a single-objective model with fixed parameters, it lacks the flexibility to offer an adaptable program for farmers during drought or wet periods or when inputs are limited. Findings indicate that under current conditions, there is excessive use of chemical inputs and irrigation water. By accounting for data uncertainty, the Goal-Gray model addresses these limitations, balancing economic and environmental objectives and defining a cultivation range for selected crops. Acknowledgement We are grateful to the experts of agronomy management and plant conservation management of Mazandaran Province Agricultural Jihad Organization and Sari City Agricultural Jihad Management who cooperated in data collection. This article is taken from the preliminary results of a doctoral dissertation with material and intellectual rights related to Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, which is gratefully acknowledged.
Agricultural Economics
Kh. Abdi Rokni; S. Shirzadi Laskookalayeh; H. Amirnejad
Abstract
IntroductionThe growing importance of energy resources in the formation and growth of economic processes, as well as the need to exploit these resources based on environmental considerations and sustainable economic development, the issue of energy saving as an important issue in all economic infrastructures, ...
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IntroductionThe growing importance of energy resources in the formation and growth of economic processes, as well as the need to exploit these resources based on environmental considerations and sustainable economic development, the issue of energy saving as an important issue in all economic infrastructures, including industry. Global warming, declining crop yields, climate change and acid rain are the result of fossil fuel consumption. Hence, in recent years, there has been a growing global emphasis on renewable energy across both developed and developing nations. The primary objective is to decrease reliance on conventional energy sources, mitigate environmental pollution, and attain sustainable energy practices. Materials and WaysIn the present study, a multi-objective mathematical planning model was designed, in which the optimal crop cultivation model in the southern grove area of Babol city, taking into account the maximum profit from the sale of crops, relying on expanding the use of renewable energy sources in the supply basket Irrigation water and reduction of fossil energy consumption used in irrigation water supply were determined. The objective functions of the study are in the form of two objectives: profit maximization and minimization of greenhouse gas emissions. The amount of profit considered in the present study is equal to the difference between income from crop production and total costs, including irrigation, planting and harvesting costs, seed costs, fertilizers and pesticides, and labor costs. The greenhouse gases considered in this study encompass CO2, N2O, and CH4, with the objective of minimizing their emissions for the determination of an optimal crop pattern. The study endeavors to resolve the proposed nonlinear multi-objective pattern utilizing the constraint epsilon method. Subsequently, employing the energy link indexes (E), the optimal solution is identified among the proposed alternatives through the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision model. The statistical population for this investigation comprises farmers in the southern forest area of Babol city. The analysis of results has been conducted using Matlab, Lingo, and Excel software. Results and DiscussionIn this study, a multi-objective model with objective functions of profit maximization and minimization of greenhouse gas emissions subject to energy, energy flow, water, fertilizer, and capital and land constraints using the method the constraint is resolved and eventually the study decision variables are obtained. In terms of recyclable energy, the model suggests that four types of Tarom rice, Shiroodi rice, soybean, and corn be grown with 0.40, 0.34, 0.14 and 0.12 ha / ha, respectively. As can be seen, in accordance with the outputs of the optimal model in terms of renewable energy, most of the cultivated land is allocated to Tarom and Shiroodi rice. The total amount of energy required in the optimal model in terms of renewable energy was 2518 kWh, of which fossil energy is 79% and solar energy is 21%. According to the calculations made in Equation 3, to provide 21% (518 kWh) of solar electricity required by the irrigation system in order to irrigate one hectare of the proposed model of the optimal model in the study area, a solar panel with a capacity of 0.22 kW will be required. The results of the model show that in terms of renewable energy, with the implementation of the proposed model, the profit of farmers in the region per hectare increases from 14776.21 to 14778.18 million rials compared to the situation of non-renewable energy in the entire growing season. In other words, in the current situation, people cultivate crops regardless of energy consumption and production costs (traditional method of rice production by local farmers), while by choosing the right model, the farmer's economic benefits can be increased by 0.013%. At the same time, it saved a significant amount of fossil energy consumption.The minimum emission target of the model in terms of renewable energy states that for the cultivation of 0.40 hectares of Tarom rice, 0.34 hectares of Shiroodi, 0.14 hectares of soybean and 0.12 hectares of corn, at the rate of 2836 kg equivalent to CO2 pollution Fertilizers, pesticides and fossil fuel consumption will be released, which is 9% less than the current situation where only fossil fuels are used to irrigate crops. ConclusionIn the present study, the interests of farmers were considered by considering the maximum profit from the sale of agricultural products by relying on the use of renewable energy sources in the energy basket of the agricultural sector (by reducing the fuel consumption of fossil energy sources used) in determining the cultivation pattern. Optimally calculated and compared with current conditions. The results show that the optimal model in terms of renewable energy, shows a more appropriate achievement of goals than in the absence of renewable energy. To this end, it is suggested that agricultural policy makers, by promoting the use of solar energy in irrigation and the use of this large capacity in the country, justify farmers to the potential benefits of solar energy (in the agricultural sector) and its widespread use, reduce current agricultural subsidies in the energy sector. Fossilization and subsidizing solar energy, encouraging the private sector to invest in solar projects can help power irrigation projects.
Agricultural Economics
T. Ranjbar; S.M. Mojaverian; Z. Raftani Amiri; S. Shirzadi Laskookalayeh; F. Eshghi
Abstract
There are four interconnected markets, i.e. oilseeds, crude oil, meal and edible oil, in the vegetable oil supply chain. Nowadays, emerging tools in context of information and communication technologies (ICTs) have critical role to develop the supply chain. The purpose of this study is to identify and ...
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There are four interconnected markets, i.e. oilseeds, crude oil, meal and edible oil, in the vegetable oil supply chain. Nowadays, emerging tools in context of information and communication technologies (ICTs) have critical role to develop the supply chain. The purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize actors' preferences for using blockchain technology in the vegetable oil supply chain. For this purpose, we applied the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We interviewed 15 experts, including scientific specialists from adjacent fields and actors in the vegetable oil supply chain, in 2021, to determine the weight of the pairwise comparison matrix. This study evaluated the leading indicators of management improvement, performance improvement, data security, transparency, traceability and visibility, as well as their sub-indicators. The calculation of final weight revealed the most relevance of sub-indices, i.e. increasing inter-organizational trust, compatibility and secure data compatibility, with value of 0.467, 0.043 and 0.043, respectively. The rest of the indicators were also ranked as data immutability, close relationship with suppliers, degree of privacy, forecasting, strategic planning capabilities, reduction of lead time and doing the order on time, respectively. The lack of trust between circles and actors is thus the most crucial obstacle and the largest potential for the new chain in the current supply chain. More training and knowledge of supply chain players on emerging technologies should be put on the agenda to achieve optimal supply chain management. Our results also suggested solutions for advocating for the planning and development of the required infrastructure for the implementation of blockchain technology in Iran.
Agricultural Economics
P. Tonakbar; H. Amirnejad; S. Shirzadi Laskookalayeh
Abstract
Introduction: Among the various available tools in the field of natural resources and environmental management, the payment for ecosystem services (PES) is one of the market-based methods that is considered worldwide to protect the environment and ecosystem. PES is an important method for effective management ...
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Introduction: Among the various available tools in the field of natural resources and environmental management, the payment for ecosystem services (PES) is one of the market-based methods that is considered worldwide to protect the environment and ecosystem. PES is an important method for effective management of natural resources and public goods and one of the tools for managing degraded ecosystems and related environmental and economic services. Considering that Sefidrood is considered as the most important and valuable source of agricultural water supply and aquatic environment in Guilan province, and also the water quality of this important river is in a bad and very bad condition, this study was conducted using PES economic tools through payments by rice consumers in Guilan province to rice farmers and thus encouraging them to take environmentally friendly measures (organic agriculture) to reduce pollution of the Sefidrood River.
Materials and Methods: This research was conducted using a choice experiment method. In our CE, each PES alternative is described by a set of attributes that include distribution of payments, contract duration, implementing organization, monitoring times, possibility to cancel and payments. First, to investigate the effect of different attributes of PES scheme on rice consumers' willingness to pay and their marginal utility, a conditional logit model was used to compare the results of random parameter logit model and latent class models with a base model. Then, the RPL and LC model was used to further investigate the invisible heterogeneity that exists in the behavior of respondents. The RPL model is an advanced model that allows attributes coefficients to change randomly among respondents. Therefore, instead of estimating a fixed coefficient for each attribute, two coefficients are estimated, which together describe the distribution of heterogeneous preferences of the respondents for this attribute.
Results and Discussion: To confirm the CL model, the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption was performed using the Hausman-McFadden test. Given that the value of chi-square statistics has become large and significant, therefore, the CL model is not suitable for investigating the effect of attributes on consumer’s willingness to pay, and more advanced models should be used. For this reason, RPL and LC models are estimated. According to the results of the RPL model, the highest willingness to pay is related to the monitoring times therefor indicating that consumers are willing to pay 1347 Tomans for more monitoring. The amount of willingness to pay for the duration of contract and distribution of payments is equal to 1326 and 914 Tomans, respectively, which indicates if the contracts are short-time and also more payments are made to low-income rice farmers, the willingness to pay will increase to 1326 and 914 Tomans, respectively. Based on the results of the LC model, in the first class, except for the contract duration, all other attributes were not statistically significant. In the second class, the distribution of payments, the contract duration and the monitoring times with a positive sign and the implementing organization with a negative sign are significant. Class membership coefficients for organic rice consumers indicate that the likelihood of being in second class depends significantly on the respondents' age, gender, and level of education.
Conclusion: The results of RPL and LC models confirm the existence of heterogeneity in the preferences of organic rice consumers. Therefore, appropriate methods can be used to differentiate organic products and thus improve the utility of consuming these products. Consumers were also more inclined to have a short-time and high monitoring scheme, this result is not unexpected due to the novelty of the scheme. Therefore, it is recommended to start short-time schemes with high monitoring. Consumers also tended to make more payments to low-income rice farmers, so it is recommended that lower-income rice farmers be given priority in implementing the PES scheme. The results of both model showed that the distribution of payments and monitoring times had the highest priority for consumers in choosing the PES scheme, respectively. Therefore, in order to increase the participation of consumers in such schemes, it is recommended to include these attributes in the schemes. Also, although PES is not designed as a tool to reduce poverty, it can increase the incomes of low-income rice farmers and help their livelihoods. Given that such schemes have not yet been implemented in Iran, it is suggested that in order to increase consumer participation, various levels of attributes should be provided to the respondents.
Agricultural Economics
N. Heidari Zahiri; H. Amirnejad; S. Shirzadi Laskookalayeh
Abstract
Introduction:Water scarcity, improper management of water resources, excessive application of chemical inputs, and lack of proper cultivation patterns are present in agriculture. Lack of attention to these cases will inflict irreparable damage on the agricultural sector. Accordingly, attention to sustainable ...
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Introduction:Water scarcity, improper management of water resources, excessive application of chemical inputs, and lack of proper cultivation patterns are present in agriculture. Lack of attention to these cases will inflict irreparable damage on the agricultural sector. Accordingly, attention to sustainable agriculture, conservation of water resources and prevention of improper use of chemical fertilizers are essential to reduce environmental pollution. In many cases, there is agreement on the river basin scale as a suitable spatial scale for analysis of water resources management. Tajan Basin with area of about 4187 km2 is one of the important parts of Caspian Sea Basin. The Current status of water resources in Tajan basin due to decrease in river runoff, has doubled the focus on the basin's water resources management. Materials and Methods: In this study, with the help of positive mathematical planning and maximum entropy approach in GAMS, policies to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and water in selecting the appropriate cultivation pattern for 2017 in the Tajan basin were reviewed. Within the model, the farmer maximizes the expected utility of their stochastic income, subject to resource and non-negativity constraints. To include both market and yields uncertainty, we calculated profit covariance matrices by using national averages for prices and yields for the 2018–2009 period. The resource constraints include land, water and fertilizer. Selected irrigated crops in the region include rice, wheat, rapeseed and corn. In the present study for simulating farmers' response, reduction scenarios including 5%, 10% and 15% of available water and fertilizer are considered. There are also two environmental sustainability index that are related to amount of the used fertilizer and water. The smaller the index is, the greater sustainability is provided in crop production. Results and Discussion: Calibration of PMP pattern with maximum entropy approach showed that there is no difference between the value of target function, inputs and cultivation level in the current situation and calibration pattern. In all water reduction scenarios, the total cultivation area decreased. The results indicate that the agriculture in the basin is vulnerable due to changes in available water. The 15% decrease in water resources causes a significant decrease of 15/903% of the cultivation area. Cultivation area under fertilizer reduction scenarios has been lower in comparison with water scenarios, and so reduces the used fertilizer and increases soil conservation and water stock. In reduction scenarios of water and fertilizer, land reallocation is reduced due to less reduction in expected utility of farmers. In water scarcity conditions and lack of fertilizer, rice and wheat crops have higher economic benefits per hectare than other crops. The sustainability index for used fertilizer in all reduction scenarios of water and fertilizer is lower than the current pattern. Also the index of the used water in the PMP model is lower than the baseline in the region that decrease was 0.018%, 0.144% and 0.319% at three levels of 5%, 10% and 15%, respectively. In the scenario of 15% reduction of fertilizer, land allocation and economic benefits decreased by 13.83% and 0.034%, respectively. However used fertilizer and water index improved to 1.348% and 0.319%, respectively. Therefore, improving the water and fertilizer application index has a higher priority than reducing the expected utility in the region. Conclusion: In the current cropping pattern, farmers do not pay attention to the environmental characteristics and sustainability of the region. While with the policies of reducing the quantity and price of chemical inputs and introducing different types of sustainability indicators, it is possible to develop a cultivation model. In addition to earning the necessary profit, it enables the optimal use of fertilizer and water inputs. Changing the behavior of farmers compared to the current pattern of input consumption requires strong motivation and reasons. Therefore, water quality tests and soil decomposition in the region, as well as providing appropriate formulas for optimal use of chemical fertilizers is needed. Extension services to increase people's awareness is a good solution for optimal use of inputs and increase the level of cultivation and farmers' profits.
S. Shirzadi Laskookalayeh; M. Sabouhi Sabouni; A. Jalali
Abstract
In the present study, ranking of agricultural land use constraints for about 700 hectares of Kashmar plain lands were determined by studying the consumption of the chemical fertilizers and impacts of irregular harvest on the quality of the groundwater resources. The studied lands were divided into 8 ...
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In the present study, ranking of agricultural land use constraints for about 700 hectares of Kashmar plain lands were determined by studying the consumption of the chemical fertilizers and impacts of irregular harvest on the quality of the groundwater resources. The studied lands were divided into 8 groups. The quality and more use restrictions were ranked by Vicor multi-criteria programming method and the related factors and indicators. Using weighted goal programming model with consideration to the 4 environmental and economical goals for each group simultaneously,, optimal cultivating pattern, sustainable management of groundwater use and achievement to the sustainable agriculture were proposed. The required data were collected from the Agriculture Administration, the Regional Water administration and the meteorological office of Kashmar County in 2011. Results showed that priority ranking of land use restrictions should be considered to prevent more damages to the agricultural areas. The results on the agricultural water resources quality during 2009 and 2011 showed that salinity increment in different subdivisions has developed. This causes the regional agriculture to face serious damages in the near future. Therefore, in order to achieve a comprehensive management on exploiting the regional groundwater resources, it is necessary to pay attention to some programs such as groundwater quality management, cultivation pattern change, cultivating the more resistant plants to salinity, replacing the chemical fertilizers with organic ones and considering the sustainable agriculture in the region..