Agricultural Economics
D. Jahangirpour; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Modern irrigation systems are considered as a way to both respond to the effects of climate changes and improve the water security. Applying such systems, save the water used in farming activities and consequently made some environmental challenges in terms of increasing energy consumption and greenhouse ...
Read More
Modern irrigation systems are considered as a way to both respond to the effects of climate changes and improve the water security. Applying such systems, save the water used in farming activities and consequently made some environmental challenges in terms of increasing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Although some recent studies analyzed the relationship between water and energy in the agricultural irrigation systems, considering the objectives on productivity, adaptation, and mitigation in a cropping pattern optimization problem is necessary. Climate-Smart agriculture as a strong programming concept, addresses these three objectives and has created the potential for a "triple-win" solution. This study is an effort to fill the study gap on triple-win solution in modern irrigation by developing an integrated economic-hydrological-environmental model called WECSAM at the basin level using a hydrological model called WEAP. For this purpose, a multi-objective optimization model has been developed with the concepts of water footprint, energy footprint, and the greenhouse gas emissions in the context of CSA. We applied the model to the northern region of Bakhtegan basin called Doroodzan irrigation network located in Iran. The result of the WECSAM model indicated that by simultaneously optimizing the conflicting objectives of maximizing profit and minimizing water footprint, energy footprint, and CO2 emissions, as compared to the single-objective model of maximizing economic profit, the water footprint decreases by 8.2%, Energy footprint decreases by 21.2%, CO2 emissions decreases by 6.9% and profit decreases by 7.4%. The share of each system in irrigating the water-smart, energy-smart, and climate-smart cropping pattern is as follow: 54% for drip system, 26% for semi-permanent sprinkler system, 11% for surface systems, 8% for center-pivot, and <1% for classic permanent sprinkler system.
A. Mirzaei; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Introduction: During the last decades, climate change has been highly disjointed. Recent studies on climate change has approached the assessment of impacts of this phenomenon and adaptation strategies under biophysical or social perspectives. In the field of agriculture and water resources, most assessments ...
Read More
Introduction: During the last decades, climate change has been highly disjointed. Recent studies on climate change has approached the assessment of impacts of this phenomenon and adaptation strategies under biophysical or social perspectives. In the field of agriculture and water resources, most assessments have been based on biophysical modelling focusing on the agronomic dimension or the hydrological dimension. Therefore, integrate biophysical and social aspects looking at environmental and human contexts are vital for investigation of climate change and adaptation strategies effects. In line with this, varied types of integrated modelling frameworks have been developed to address the different scales (from the crop to the river basin) and the different dimensions of climate change, water and agriculture (hydrological, agronomic, socio economic). Water resources in the Halil-Rud river basin are likely to be seriously affected by climate change in the form of increased water scarcity and more frequent droughts which leads to conflicts among different water users and uses, especially between agricultural sector and Jazmourian wetland services. However, because of the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of water management and climate change, it is needed to integrate tools for the analysis of impacts and adaptation. In line with this, current study presents an economic – hydrological model to evaluate potential effects of climate change and adaptation strategies on irrigated agriculture and to solve or mitigate water resources conflicts among different water users and uses in studied basin.Materials and Methods: This study, combines a farm-based economic multi-objectives optimization model with the hydrologic model water evaluation and planning (WEAP) which can represent the socio-economic, agronomic and hydrologic systems in a spatially-explicit manner covering all dimensions and scales relevant to climate change. To this end, current study was organized in two sections. In the first section, the effects of a climate change under A2 scenario and balanced groundwater withdrawal (sustainable groundwater use) on hydrological and economic performance of basin level were investigated using an economic, agronomic and hydrologic model. Finally, adopting suitable adaptive strategies on hydrological and economic conditions were evaluated using that model. A2 scenario is primarily simulated through the hydrologic model, as it represents physical characteristics of the crop and water systems, through changes in climate variables. On the other hand, adaptation strategies that affect human behavior are firstly simulated by the economic multi-objectives model. The hydro-economic simulation model is started with the multi-objectives model run which include economic and hydrological objectives. Then, Using the MABIA method and WEAP irrigation water requirements would be calculated, allocating water to crops depending on water availability and established priorities, and estimating crop yields would be done. After the first economic-hydrologic model simulation, there is a second economic-hydrologic iteration. The economic model uses WEAP results on water delivered to irrigation communities (water availability constraints at farm level), crop yields (used to calculate the gross margin per crop) and irrigation water requirements under the simulated climate scenario and adaptation strategies to simulate farmers' adjustment of cropping patterns to a new optimal land allocation.Result and Discussion: results indicates the multi-dimensional effects of climate change and adaptation strategies and show the large potential of integrated hydro-economic models for representing the multi-scale processes related to climate change and water management. The analysis of decisions taken at farm level has been proven to be necessary, as crop model results capture the potential of farm level adaptation to mitigate the damaging effects of climate change and these are relevant to climate change adaptation as highlighted by Reidsma et al. (2010). Results for the climate change under A2 scenario and balanced groundwater withdrawal scenario (combined scenario) on status of hydrological and economic in the level basin showed that crops yield, areas with available water and water demand reliability would decrease, while crops net water demand and areas water unmet demand would increase and farmers’ income would decrease between 10 to 37 percent for upstream, between 24 to 47 percent for middle and between 30 to 50 percent for downstream units in long –term horizon in comparison to base scenario. But, adopting suitable adaptive strategies and measures could mitigate the effects of climate change on hydrological conditions specially for downstream areas and economic conditions including upstream areas. Finally, combined suitable water transmission system, modern irrigation technologies, saffron crop cultivation and deficit irrigation of some crops adaptive strategies simultaneously indicated that unmet water demand significantly decreases and the total gross margin of agricultural sector increases by 68% in comparison to base scenario under climate change.
S.M. Nazarian; M. Zibaei; A. Sheikhzeinoddin
Abstract
Introduction: Agricultural sector plays a vital role in Iran’s economy but this sector has pursued an unsustainable route mostly because of land and water resources degradation resulting from inefficient use of irrigation water and intensive use of inorganic inputs. However, increasing production ...
Read More
Introduction: Agricultural sector plays a vital role in Iran’s economy but this sector has pursued an unsustainable route mostly because of land and water resources degradation resulting from inefficient use of irrigation water and intensive use of inorganic inputs. However, increasing production is not the only relevant goal in farming systems. It is important to consider the effects of agriculture on soil productivity, pollution, water and energy use efficiency, Greenhouse gas emissions and social aspects. In fact, there is a strong interest for redefining production systems looking for a balance between high productivity and the protection of the environmental services provided by these farming systems. In this regard, current study evaluated environmental, economic and social impacts of agricultural systems in Kouhdasht area as one of the important regions of Lorestan province using multi-criteria compromise programming (CP) and a set of different weights. Gross margin, direct expenses and crops acreage were the indicators considered for economic sustainability analysis. The environmental indicators were water use, EIQ (environmental impact quotient), use of fertilizer, insecticides and pesticides, soil organic carbon and crop rotation. The social indicators considered for analysis were employment and education level. The basic idea in compromise programming as a well-known multi-criteria decision-making method, is to identify an ideal solution that can be obtain from the available options. This ideal solution is a point reference for decision maker and options or alternatives are ranked based on how far they are from it. The findings of this study include the identification of a set of agricultural systems based on different views or weights. These optimal agricultural systems are compared to the current agricultural systems.Materials and Methods: In current study a compromise programming optimization model was solved to find efficient agricultural systems, according to economic, environmental and social criteria, for crop/livestock farms. An agricultural system can be shown as a linear combination of activities. Each activity is characterized by the resources and inputs employed, the type and quantity of the output produced and the environmental impacts. Generally, eight agricultural systems corresponding to different crops and livestock production were considered for analysis. The evaluation of sustainability of agriculture requires determination of attributes or indicators covering economic, environmental and social dimensions. In fact, the concept of attribute or indicator is fundamental in multi-criteria models. In this study, three economic, six environmental and two social indicators are included as attributes. Selection of indicators was based on relevance of the indicators, the frequency of using the indicator in previous studies and availability of data. The solution of CP entailed of finding the lowest distance to the ideal for all the criteria. Decision-maker preferences were simulated using nine scenarios, which combine three distance functions (π = 1, π = 2 and π =100), and three different weights based on the importance of different dimensions.Results and Discussion: The results showed that, based on the first weight group (environmental view) and at the low and high weight for deviations (π =1 and π = 100), wheat1 and sugar beet1 systems are the most sustainable system respectively. But sugar beet2 system is the most unstable agricultural system at all levels of π and in all areas. Overuse of groundwater for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide in some areas further reinforced agricultural unsustainability. In the second weight group (economics view) and for π = 2, activity diversification (crop -livestock) system was more balanced than continuous crop farming. In the third weight group (equal weight to all dimensions) and for π = 2, sugar beet1 and the rain fed cultivated systems were the most sustainable. In other values of π, the sugar beet2 had the least sustainable index. The findings of this study indicate instability in Azadbakht Korapa and Cham Sangar villages in all weight groups, while Katkan village is most sustainability for π = 2. Results also showed that for π = 1, Kohnani and Eastern Tarhan rural district are most sustainable and most unsustainable rural district respectively. The lack of sustainable agricultural production in Eastern Tarhan in π = 1, was due to limited economics performance in rural district. However, in high levels of sensitivity to deviations from the ideal level, the rural district of Boluran and the Western Tarhan,are most unsustainable rural district, and North and South Kouhdasht, Golgol, Darb Gombad and Ziretang are the most sustainable rural district in the region. Finally, by putting different dimensions of sustainability, this study extracted ten independent and distinct patterns of sustainability using data mining. Farms in patterns 5 and 8 were experienced relative sustainable, and farms in the pattern 6, were unsustainable in all dimensions.Conclusion: It was inferred from the results of this study that there are regional differences in agricultural sustainability in Kouhdasht. As a result, it is suggested that effective agricultural policies be adopted in accordance with local research.
S. Nikmehr; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Introduction: Water resources are under increasing pressure from climate change, population growth, and socio-economic development. Recent assessments have revealed that climate change accounts for about 20% of the increased water scarcity. Due to the impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture ...
Read More
Introduction: Water resources are under increasing pressure from climate change, population growth, and socio-economic development. Recent assessments have revealed that climate change accounts for about 20% of the increased water scarcity. Due to the impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture is one of the most important sectors of the economy affected by this event. Accordingly, food security threatened by climate change is one of the most important challenges of the 21st century to provide sufficient food for population growth. Because of the abundant effects of climate change and water scarcity on farmers' welfare, different strategies have been adopted to adapt to these changes. Adaptation can be defined as: “adjustment in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic drivers and their effects or impacts. Climate change phenomenon has occurred in Iran during recent decades and it will continue in the future with greater intensity based on the seventh report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In other words, Iran’s aridity has been exacerbated by the climatic change to pose serious threats to its water resources and the ability to meet its residential, environmental, industrial, and agricultural water demands. In this regard, improved irrigation efficiency is vital for alleviating water scarcity and can be an adaptation strategy to climate change for this country due to water losses account for at least 45% of the water used in Iran's irrigated agriculture, which arises from inefficient irrigation systems.Materials and Methods: The Karkheh River Basin (KRB) is one of the largest watersheds in Iran after Karoon and Dez. It is located on the western border of the country in a strategic position. This watershed consists of five sub-basins, namely Kashkan, Qarasou, Gamsiab, Seymareh, and South Karkheh. The Karkheh River Basin deal with water shortage through the frequent droughts in the region over the past decades, leading to major water deficit in downstream of the basin. Also, Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current water problems in KRB. Such ways that, 10-30% decrease in the runoff by mid-century is estimated in this basin thanks to less precipitation and higher evapotranspiration. The aim of current research is to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture and irrigation efficiency improvement strategy for adaptation in South Karkheh sub-basin using a hydro-economic model. This model integrates the strengths of the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) as a hydrological model. The MABIA module within WEAP was also used to simulate the impacts of climate change scenarios and water availability scenarios on crop yield. The hydro-economic model simulation starts with run WEAP-MABIA model for hydrological simulation of South Karkheh sub-basin. For this purpose, Model calibration was carried out using the PEST method. The Zahraei’s climate change scenarios (2015) were then used as input to the WEAP-MABIA model. Finally, results of the WEAP- MABIA were used as input to the Positive Mathematical Programming model to investigate the effects of climate change scenarios and adaptation strategy (improvement of irrigation efficiency) on the crop patterns and farmers’ profit. Required data for this study were collected from various sources. The data related to the Hydrological aspect was obtained from Khuzestan Water and Power Authority (KWPA) and Khuzestan Meteorological Office for the base period 1960-2018. Also, the required economic data were obtained through interviews with 180 farmers which randomly selected in Karkheh basin and Agriculture Organization of Khuzestan province.Results and Discussion: The results of the WEAP model show that climate change will decrease the availability of water in agricultural areas of south Karkheh sub-basin. But the impact of climate change varies across regions. So that the water available in Payepol and Karkheh-Noor is reduced by 8.29% and 32.76% respectively. The MABIA method results also indicated that the B2 climate change scenario in the 2018–2050 periods may have a severe impact on crop yields and irrigation water requirements.The MABIA method results also showed that the climate change scenario will likely lead to crop yield decreases, ranging between 1.5% and 34.05%. These changes in crop yields would be accompanied by increases in irrigation water requirements ranging between 1.11% and 22.43%, for all crops. A strategy to improve irrigation efficiency will mitigate the effects of climate change on the performance of different crops (especially rice crops). The results show that applying this strategy does not have a significant impact on the pure water requirement (actual evapotranspiration of products). In fact, applying this scenario (improving irrigation efficiency by 20%) will reduce gross water requirement by preventing water loss. Finally, results of the Positive Mathematical Programming showed that the total irrigated crop area is reduced under climate change by 17.93%. Therefore, Total agricultural profits decrease by 44% under climate change, compared to the reference scenario. The Karkheh Noor irrigation area faces the largest reductions in crop area. Also, this area shows the largest reduction in agricultural profits (59.9%). In contrast, the smallest decrease in crop area and agricultural profits have occurred in Payepol. But the reduction of water use due to the improving irrigation efficiency will increase the profit of agricultural activity in the Karkheh sub-basin by 340 billion Rials.Conclusion: This research has tried to contribute to the analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation by addressing the processes that occur at the sub-basin level. The Karkheh sub-basin case study, an illustrative example of critical water and climate interactions, permitted to illustrate climate change vulnerability and adaptation. The results of this study showed that Climate change can affect South Karkheh sub-basin's agriculture through changes in water resource flows and allocations. These changes impose remarkable economic costs on farmers. But the application of on-farm adaptation option via investment in improved irrigation efficiency technology does reduce the impact of climate variability. Therefore, this research demonstrates that the implementation of such a policy, can support adaptation and reduce the risk faced by farmers in light of climate change.
E. Ghorbanian; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Introduction: Fishery is an important activity in terms of trade, income, livelihoods, food and nutrition security especially to fishing communities living close to the coast. Therefore, Fishery is an essential part of sustainable development goals. High-level experts emphasize the enormous potential ...
Read More
Introduction: Fishery is an important activity in terms of trade, income, livelihoods, food and nutrition security especially to fishing communities living close to the coast. Therefore, Fishery is an essential part of sustainable development goals. High-level experts emphasize the enormous potential of oceans and seas for wielding so much influence in offering solution to one of the greatest humanitarian crises such as rapid population growth and meeting their basic needs (High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security). The concepts of sustainability are greatly connected to "sustainable development"; as it is the development of resources for human use that modifies natural ecosystems. One of the scientific and practical ways of achieving sustainability, as first step, is evaluating or measuring sustainability. In this article, a participatory multi-criteria approach is used to evaluate the sustainability of Iranian fisheries in the Persian Gulf as a case study.Materials and Methods: Given that the fishery is a multidimensional human activity, and for the purpose of decision-making and management, sustainability assessment is necessary in all its dimensions. Among scientific approaches, multi-criteria decision-making methods have been evaluated as a formal and scientific method for assessing sustainability. Rapfish introduces a rapid appraisal technique to evaluate the sustainability status of fisheries, with a multidimensional view at the issue of sustainability in fisheries and based on a multi-criteria approach. Results and Discussion: The importance of each of dimensions for Persian Gulf is expressed by weights for three groups of stakeholders separately. Weights are obtained based on a pairwise comparison between dimensions using the AHP method for each groups. Finally, the overall weight is calculated using the arithmetic mean. For example, for the researchers groups, the ecological weight 0.43 show that ecological dimension is more important than other dimensions, while the managers groups consider the management dimension (0.35) and technological (0.22) have more weight than other dimensions. For fishermen, as the exploiters of the Persian Gulf, the economic dimension is more important which has weight of 0.41 in first priority compared to other dimensions, followed by technological dimension (0.22) and social dimension (0.21). Overall weight indicates the importance of dimensions in terms of three groups of stakeholders. For Persian Gulf, ecological and economic dimensions are equally important and dimensions of social (0.19), technological (0.17) and management (0.18) are of almost the same importance. The average score for each dimension was obtained according to the mean value of the sustainability score for each system. Based on this ecological dimension, with an average sustainability score of 37.8% in a less sustainable situation, social and management dimensions with less than 50% are also less stable(sustainable). Regarding the average sustainability score, the activities of the fishing systems in the Persian Gulf are in a sustainable state in the economic (65%) and technical (64%) areas. Conclusion: Considering the importance of the issue of fishery sustainability in the Persian Gulf, this study identify the exact dimensions of sustainability based on the fundamental studies conducted in the world and the views of local stakeholders in Iran. The evaluation is carried out in five dimensions: ecological, economic, social, technological, and management, and the significance of each of these dimensions is measured from the perspective of three different groups of stakeholders. The importance of each of these dimensions is measured from the perspective of three different groups of stakeholders. The results indicate the importance of all five dimensions, and three ecological, economic, and social dimensions are prominent. Based on this result, it is suggested that managers, policymakers and stakeholders in the south of Iran pay attention to all dimensions and also policies and plans should cover all of them. Since without a holistic view, it is doubtful to move towards sustainable fishery in Persian Gulf. In the next step, using conventional methods, the importance of indicators for each dimension is determined based on local stakeholders' opinion. In fact, these dimensions and indicators are validated and localized for Iran.
N. Ashktorab; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Introduction: freshwater resources which are essential for human life, sustainable livelihood, food security and conservation of ecosystem appear to be under increasing pressure from population growth, socio-economic development and climate changes. The largest consumer of water is agricultural sector. ...
Read More
Introduction: freshwater resources which are essential for human life, sustainable livelihood, food security and conservation of ecosystem appear to be under increasing pressure from population growth, socio-economic development and climate changes. The largest consumer of water is agricultural sector. Hence improving productivity in agricultural sector and reducing agricultural water use hold the key to tacking water scarcity. But over the past decades, it has been argued that international trade of agricultural crops from wet-countries to arid and semi-arid countries is one possible path to mitigate water shortage. The trade of commodities, which water has been used in their production, is generally referred to as virtual water trade. Often the terms "virtual water" and "water footprint" are usually used synonymously, while there are significant differences. The water footprint concept, however, has a wider application. In fact, the water footprint of a product is an empirical indicator of how much water is consumed, when and where, measured over the whole supply chain of the product. In other words, the water footprint is a multidimensional indicator, showing volumes but also making explicit the type of water use and the location and timing of water use. For products containing virtual water, trade is a means of transferring water resources between regions and also this virtual water trade network among provinces has a large share of domestic trade. in current study, in order to determine the inter-provincial virtual water trade network of the country, water footprint of wheat, barley and maize and also the amount of excess supply and excess demand of selected products has been calculated using data over 1395 in each province. Therefore virtual water trade network of each product has been obtained in different provinces of the country. Then, using the transportation model, exporting provinces has been specified and the amount of exports of different products for minimizing shipping costs has been identifiedMaterials and Methods: In order to determine the excess supply and excess demand of the selected products in each province, firstly water footprint of each product was calculated for each province, then virtual water trade network of each product was identified and by using the transportation model, export route was determined.The green, blue, gray and white water footprints of studied crops were estimated following the calculation frameworks of Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008) and Hoekstra et al. (2009), and modifications proposed by Ababaei and Ramezani Etedali (2014). By calculating water footprint components for different plains, their mean values were obtained for each province and then the obtained water footprint components in both irrigated and dryland were aggregated together for each product.In this part of the study, due to lack of access to information and statistics of the amount of exports and imports between Iran’s provinces, at first per capita consumption of each Iranian person was obtained for each product. Then, total consumption of each province was obtained from the province's population by per capita consumption of each product. In order to calculate the excess demand or excess supply of each province, the total production of each province was deducted from the total consumption of each province. Finally, virtual water trade of each product in each province was acquired from water footprint in excess supply or demand.Finally, the purpose of current study is to provide a minimum cost model for a virtual trade network from production centers to consumer centers. In the transportation model used here, the objective function is to minimize the total transportation costs between all selected agricultural production centers and consumption centers. The constraint (1) indicates that the amount of exchangeable product in each province is more than or equal to the product demanded by the province. Constraint (2) ensures that the product delivered between two centers is less than or equal to the capacity of the center. In constraint (3), the total demand for products is considered to be equal to the total amount of exchanged product. Constraint (4) provides for the positive value of exchanged items between supply and demand centers.Results and Discussion: Based on the results of this study, the provinces of Azarbaijan sharghi, Azarbaijan gharbi, Ardebil, Ilam, Khuzestan, Zanjan, Fars, Qazvin, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Golestan, Lorestan, Markazi and Hamedan are the wheat suppliers and so are the exporter. The provinces of Isfahan, Bushehr, Tehran, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Khorasan, Semnan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Qom, Kerman, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Gilan, Mazandaran, Hormozgan and Yazd have exceeded demand for wheat thus they are importer. Among all provinces of the country, Tehran has the highest wheat consumption, due to the fact that the population of this province is about 13 million (Iran's capital of history, 1395). Kayani (2018) has shown that Tehran province is the largest importer of agricultural products and virtual water in the country. According to the results of the study, after ten years, mentioned province remains the importer. Among the provinces where surplus wheat has been supplied, Golestan province has the largest wheat exports up to 1.1 million tons, and by exporting this product about 2846.6 million cubic meters of water has been exported. Based on the results, Tehran province is the destination of export of Azarbaijan sharghi, Azarbaijan gharbi, Ardebil, Ilam, Zanjan, Qazvin, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Markazi and Hamedan provinces. In addition to the province of Tehran, Ardebil, Ilam and Markazi provinces have to export 492, 188 and 182 thousand tons of wheat to the provinces of Gilan, Isfahan and Qom, in order to minimize transportation costs.Following the results, Ardebil, Ilam, Khorasan, Semnan, Qazvin, Kermanshah, Golestan, Lorestan, Markazi and Hamedan provinces have excess supply of barley in the country, while the provinces of Azarbaijan sharghi, Azarbaijan gharbi, Isfahan, Bushehr, Tehran, Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari, Khuzestan, Zanjan, Sistan va Baluchestan, Fars, Qom, Kurdistan, Kerman, Kohgiluyeh va Boyer Ahmad, Gilan, Mazandaran, Hormozgan and Yazd have excess demand for barley in the country. Kermanshah and Hamedan provinces are the largest exporters of barley, which export about 690 and 666 million cubic meters of virtual water through exports of barley to other provinces and foreign countries. The rainfall of these two provinces is about 475 and 334 millimeters and footprint of water production in both provinces is 2833 and 4568 m 3 / ton. Barley import of Tehran province has taken place from Semnan, Qazvin, and Kermanshah, Golestan, Lorestan, Markazi and Hamedan provinces with a mean distance of 324 kilometers. Considering that Tehran is the largest importer of barley in the country, it is justifiable that all provinces that are located near that province are the export bases..The province of Tehran is the largest consumer and importer of maize in the country and since Tehran is not maize producer, it is not possible to calculate the water footprint. On the other hand, the province of Ilam is the smallest consumer of maize and is the sole exporter of this product which exports 21 million cubic meters of virtual water along with this product. The provinces of Khuzestan, Kermanshah and Fars are the largest maize producers in Iran, which respectively produce 351, 152, 123 thousand tons in 2016. The province of Ilam export to the provinces of Tehran and Khorasan, respectively, 634 and 99 thousand tons of maize, the cost of maize supplies is minimized. Excess demand from other provinces of the country has also been provided from imports of other countries.Conclusion: Comparison of the results of this study, based on the statistics of 2016, and the Kayani study (2018), which was carried out in 2006, showed no significant changes in water resources management. Modifying the agricultural cropping pattern and correcting the pattern of consumption in line with the water footprint of agricultural products can be useful in improving the situation of the country's water resources in the long run. Determining the pattern of agricultural trade based on water footprint production of these products and the volume of virtual exports and imports of each product in each province could have a significant effect on reducing water losses in provinces of Iran.
A. Sheikhzeinoddin; A. Esmaieli; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Introduction: Agricultural activities increasingly use water, fertilizers and pesticides, which may generate negative impacts on environment. Nowadays, nitrogen leaching from agricultural lands is a widespread global problem. Therefore, alternative land management practices such as nutrient management ...
Read More
Introduction: Agricultural activities increasingly use water, fertilizers and pesticides, which may generate negative impacts on environment. Nowadays, nitrogen leaching from agricultural lands is a widespread global problem. Therefore, alternative land management practices such as nutrient management (rate, method and time of application), tillage operations (conservation and no-tillage), and irrigation management are routinely used to reduce non-point source pollution and improve water quality. In fact, a number of studies have illustrated the positive effects of best management practices (BMPs) on water and nutrient losses. The objective of this paper is to develop a bio-economic model and introducing the policy instrument for reducing nitrate from irrigation and drainage Dorudzan. We aim to identify ‘‘win–win’’ opportunities for improving farm profitability and reducing nitrate leaching.
Materials and Methods: An integrated biophysical-economic model was developed with five components. The first component is based on a process-based biophysical model (SWAT) that simulates the key processes of crop growth within the water and nitrogen cycles. The second component is a meta-model, which is used to link the biophysical model with the economic model. The meta-model employs regression techniques to replace the original simulation model and allow the application of simulation model results in an economic model of farm production. Crop yield is the key link between the two models. A quadratic function (Eq. 1), which allows estimation of the effect of increasing input levels and diminishing marginal returns, particularly when a wide range of inputs need to be incorporated, was used in this study.
(1)
Where, Y, W and N are crop yield, water and nitrogen fertilizer application, respectively.
The third component is a simple farm economic model, which is used to predict farmers’ response behavior under different policy scenarios, and to determine when and how much to irrigate and fertilize, and the farm gross margin that results (Eq. 2).
(2)
Where, GM, , , and C are the farm gross margin (rial/ha), water price (rial/m3), nitrogen fertilizer price (rial/kg), crop price (rial/kg) and other costs, respectively.
The fourth component is a nitrate leaching function which is a function of water and nitrogen fertilizer application (Eq. 3).
(3)
The fifth component is assessment of policy incentives. Regulators have at their disposal a portfolio of policy instruments (such as water pricing or tax on nitrogen fertilizer application) that can be used to influence nitrate leaching.
For running SWAT model, the data for estimating the wheat, barley, corn and rice yield production functions were generated by running the biophysical model hundreds of times with a different range of amount of water and nitrogen applications. The total number of scenarios of combinations of amounts of irrigation and nitrogen applications was about 96, 72, 88 and 84 for wheat, barley, corn and rice, respectively. Then, the yield production function was estimated with the multiple non-linear regression technique in the Eviews software. For model simulation, the economic model was formulated based on the crop production function obtained from the multiple non-linear regression analysis in the SWAT running stage and generate the farm gross margins. The effects of increasing water prices on nitrate leaching were simulated with the biophysical model.
Results and Discussion: The values of the coefficients from the multiple nonlinear regressions are shown in Table 1.
Table 1-Results from multiple non-linear regressions
Rice corn Barely Wheat Parameters
-6.011*** -11.335** -2.64*** 0.978***
(-6.252) (-2.075) (-4.073) (5.125)
0.0221** 0.047*** 0.0288*** 0.00098***
(8.17) (2.68) (7.00) (11.342)
-1.13*10-5*** -3.21*10-5*** -4.31*10-5*** -1.38*10-5***
(-7.726) (-2.478) (-6.657) (-12.985)
0.000158*** - 0.008*** 0.01***
(6.272) - (5.835) (31.407)
-3.23*10-6*** -4.88*10-6*** -3.24*10-5*** -1.22*10-5***
(-6.378) (-6.815) (-10.422) (-42.378)
- 9.15*10-6*** 2.19*10-5*** 5.89*10-6***
- (7.766) (5.563) (11.27)
0.99 0.98 0.955 0.994 R2
***,** significant in 1% and 5% , Numbers in parentheses ret-statistics
The results for water and nitrogen inputs, crop yield, farm gross margin and nitrate leaching under agronomic optimum, economic optimum and bio-economic optimum, also are shown in Table 2.
Table 2- Comparison between agronomic optimum, economic optimum and bio-economic optimum
Gross margin Nitrate leaching crop yield nitrogen fertilizer Irrigation* Scenario crop
(rial/ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (m3/ha)
26743460 56.81 5913.2 523 11721.5 Agronomic optimum wheat
26995120 49.83 5882.9 486.4 10727 economic optimum
26354880 37.99 5723.4 408.59 9824.5 bio-economic optimum
16314000 15.08 4203.5 262 10020 Agronomic optimum barely
16416560 14.71 4105.8 245.8 9637.75 economic optimum
16416560 14.71 4105.8 245.8 9637.75 bio-economic optimum
44180040 101.31 9009 750 20000 Agronomic optimum corn
44364700 89.57 8988 684 20000 economic optimum
40805580 37.9 8390 394 20000 bio-economic optimum
66876590 51.98 5020 244.58 24450 Agronomic optimum rice
67111950 42.43 5000 209.91 23918.14 economic optimum
67098590 38 4900 197.2 23918.14 bio-economic optimum
*irrigation efficiency 40%
Conclusions: The results show that there are win-win opportunities for improving farm profitability and reducing nitrate leaching by moving from current status to economic optimum. But from this point onwards, reduction in nitrate leaching is not achievable without profit penalties. In other word, to move from economic optimum to bio-economic optimum point, there is a trade-off relationship between farm profitability and groundwater quality protection. Also results of policy assessment showed that for wheat-water pricing and for corn and rice, because of high elasticity of yields of these crops to water application, tax on nitrogen application are cost effective policies.
F. Nasrnia; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Introduction: The water crisis is one of the main challenges of the current century. Drought is one of the most costly natural disasters in Iran. During the past 40 years, our country has experienced 27 droughts. It seems a necessary step to deal with the consequences of drought and reducing its effects, ...
Read More
Introduction: The water crisis is one of the main challenges of the current century. Drought is one of the most costly natural disasters in Iran. During the past 40 years, our country has experienced 27 droughts. It seems a necessary step to deal with the consequences of drought and reducing its effects, thorough understanding and knowledge of each region's vulnerability, which is neglected in our country, unfortunately. It is necessary to study the influencing factors in determining vulnerability and makes it visible. On the other hand, due to the continuing drought conditions intensified in recent years and its impact on different economic sectors, especially the agricultural sector in the country need to assess vulnerability to drought in the country will double.
Materials and Methods: Fuzzy AHP method based on the concept of fuzzy sets introduced by LotfeiZadeh. There are several ways to use fuzzy theory and hierarchical structure proposed merger. Cheng in 1996 suggested a new approach to solve problems using Fuzzy AHP calibration values within the membership and (TFNs). Extent Analysis Method proposed by Chang is one of the common ways to solve problems. In this study, we developed a method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy Chang that has been developed by Zhu et al. and Van Alhag.
Results and Discussion: Vulnerability to drought conditions is determined by factors such as economic, social and physical sensitivity to the damaging effects of drought increases. This study is designed in the hierarchy. The purpose of this study is assessing the vulnerability of the country to drought. Vulnerability of this study includes economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and physical vulnerability. Economic vulnerability to drought indicates that the economy is vulnerable to external shocks due to drought and the inability of the economy to withstand the effects of the event and recover the situation. Social vulnerability determines the capacity to deal with drought in the community and reflect the effects of drought on people's ability to cope with the event. The physical vulnerability is related to the characteristics and the structure of society, infrastructure and services that are the result of the damage caused by drought. In the present study, the economic dimension of vulnerability, including GDP per capita, value added in agriculture, value added in industry and the impact of drought on the GDP. Under the criteria of social vulnerability, population density, population growth, the rate of literacy, vulnerable populations, the costs of health and safety and the impact of drought on employment were considered. The physical dimensions of vulnerability include the rate of irrigated land and road density since the objective of this study was to assess vulnerability to drought in various provinces of the country, the required data for all provinces except for Alborz province was collected in 1391 from intelligence sources. To determine the importance of different dimensions of vulnerability as well as the sub-phase in each dimension, the questionnaire was used for paired comparisons. As for the tens of experts, specialists and professionals who have expertise using the Delphi method is incorporated. In general, the importance of physical vulnerability is more than economic and social vulnerability. On the other hand, according to the results the economic and social vulnerability is important, too. The results of this study showed that the importance of the physical vulnerability was more than the economic and social vulnerability and economic vulnerability and social importance were the same. In the economic vulnerability sub-criteria of per capita GDP, in the social vulnerability sub-criteria of population density and in the physical vulnerability sub-criteria of road density have the most importance. These findings may reflect the fact that when drought occurs, access to infrastructure, services and markets can considerably reduce the harmful effects of drought. According to the results, Semnan, Tehran and Gilan provinces jointly are economically vulnerable. On the other hand, in terms of criteria for social vulnerability, provinces of Fars, Khuzestan and Gilan were the most social vulnerable and Isfahan, Kermanshah and Ilam are the least vulnerable. Also, according to the results the province of Khuzestan, Fars and Khorasan were the most; and Yazd, Bushehr and Kohgiluyeh Boyer were the least physical vulnerability.
Conclusion: In this study, in order to assess vulnerability to drought in various provinces, , after determining the hierarchy and collect relevant data, the importance of each criteria and sub-criteria were determined. In order to determine the importance of different aspects of vulnerability (the economic, social and physical) Fuzzy AHP method was used in each dimension. According to the results of this study, the province of Khuzestan, Fars and Khorasan are the most and Yazd, Bushehr and Kohgiluyeh Boyer were the least physical vulnerability. Since different provinces have significant differences in vulnerability to drought and vulnerability in various aspects of economic, social and physical, in order to achieve drought management based on risk management, recommended in policy and planning make attention the effects of drought in the various provinces.
M. Zibaei; F. Nasrnia
Abstract
Introduction: Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and drought. In the meantime, drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources, and this phenomenon is slow and creeping.Available evidence suggests that drought ...
Read More
Introduction: Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and drought. In the meantime, drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources, and this phenomenon is slow and creeping.Available evidence suggests that drought management is based on crisis management. As the present management in our country is based on crisis management, and drought-proneareasin thecountryhave become a society vulnerable to drought. So, the authorities require a new set of data for drought preparedness to deal with these challenges, in order to obtain the resources to be properly and effectively prioritized and reduce the effects of drought and its consequences. Undoubtedly, the starting point of vulnerability assessment and risk management is a prerequisite that has been sadly neglected in our country. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of technical, economic and social vulnerability assessment determined before and after the drought and vulnerability patterns for wheat farmers in the North of Fars province.
Materials and Methods: The vulnerability of wheat farmers in the North of Fars province is determined using three methods. The first method measured ex ante vulnerability based on estimated income distributions, and the other identified ex post vulnerability according to farmers asset positions and drought coping strategy in the 1390 drought. The final section determined the patterns of vulnerability using cluster analysis and data mining. A sample of 203 farmers in three plains was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years (1390 and 1391) was carried out. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of households in the North of Fars province against drought, the formula Me-bar and Valdez has been used. In North of Fars province, as many other fields, agriculture is the main source of income and income from agriculture is highly dependent on rainfall. The conditional mean and variance for each farmer household, were predicted using data on rainfall and farm household characteristics. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmer households in the North of Fars province before the drought, the method used to estimate household income distribution is Kusunose.
Results and Discussion: Data for the wheat farmers in three fields Aspass, Namdan and Sedehwho constitute 86% of the Northern Province were collected through questionnaire and with a simple random multistage interview. Typically, ex ante vulnerability, using data on household consumption or expenditure data over time wasmeasured. Household consumption or costs reflect the income stream and the family’s coping capacity. It should be noted that the measurement of vulnerability to drought before (ex ante) is based on two assumptions of behavior and consumers’ income. After the drought, vulnerability criteria (ex post), on the basis of income shocks caused by drought and household tools to tackle with the drought, were measured. The characteristics of households that are vulnerable according to the criteria based on the characteristics of vulnerable households are compared. Percent of irrigated lands are vulnerable households with vulnerable families, and it somehow reflects easier access to equipment and facilities are vulnerable households irrigation.
Conclusion:The results shows that if crops are the sole income source and have no consumption smoothing capability whatsoever, and consumption perfectly tracks income, over 32% of sampled farmers fall to the Southwest of the 60% vulnerability curve meaning that these farmers would fall under the poverty line ever 60% of the time. But only 10% of the sampled farmers would fall under poverty line over 60% of the time if we use the second income measure, the combined income from crops and off-farm sources. The results showed that factors such as unity of citizens and access to capital for agricultural inputs rank first and second in terms of vulnerability todrought.Also, by putting the dimensions of technical, economic and social vulnerability, this study extracted seven independent and distinct patterns of vulnerability. The comparison between the specifications of vulnerable and secure households during droughts shows policy for farmers who are vulnerable to drought before and after the drought, and policies to increase employment opportunities outside the farm.The findings of this study help policymakers shift from crisis management to risk management and design appropriate plans at sub-regional or farm level rather than national or regional levels.
S. Erfanifar; M. Zibaei; M. Kasraei
Abstract
To investigate factors affecting the adoption of conservation tillage systems, the tillage methods utilized by wheat producers in the central Darab county are categorized into conventional, reduced-tillage and no tillage systems. For this purpose, multinomial logit model approach using the stata software ...
Read More
To investigate factors affecting the adoption of conservation tillage systems, the tillage methods utilized by wheat producers in the central Darab county are categorized into conventional, reduced-tillage and no tillage systems. For this purpose, multinomial logit model approach using the stata software was applied to the data set collected by random cluster sampling method. The explanatory variables consisted of farmer’s age, farm land size, farmer’s level of education, farmer’s experience on conservation tillage methods, number of family members, off-farm employment, number of land parcels and farmer ‘s information on conservation tillage methods.The results indicated that some variables such as farmer ‘s level of education, farmer’s experience on conservation tillage methods, off-farm employment, farm land size and farmer’s information on conservation tillage systems have positive and significant effect on the adoption of reduced-tillage systems, while the variable of the number of land parcels has a negative and significant effect. Other variables such as the farmer’s age and the number of family members were found insignificants.
S. Erfanifar; M. Zibaei; M. Kasraei
Abstract
In this study, the optimal cropping patterns based on individual aims are presented and followed by a multi-objective cropping pattern with emphasize on the use of conservation tillage methods in Darab region presented. Individual goals consisted of maximizing gross margin and food secIn this study, ...
Read More
In this study, the optimal cropping patterns based on individual aims are presented and followed by a multi-objective cropping pattern with emphasize on the use of conservation tillage methods in Darab region presented. Individual goals consisted of maximizing gross margin and food secIn this study, the optimal cropping patterns based on individual aims were presented and followed by using a multi-objective fuzzy goal programming with emphasize on the use of conservation tillage methods in the Darab region. Individual goals consisted of maximizing gross margin and food security and minimizing water consumption and urea fertilizer use. The results showed that in the multi-objective cropping pattern, gross margin and food security increased by 23.5% and 6.1% , while water and energy consumption decreased by 4% and 5.1%, respectively as compared to the current cropping pattern. The fuzzy composite distance improved by %36, as compared to the current condition. Moreover, having replaced the conventional tillage methods with conservation tillage methods in the cropping pattern, the diesel fuel consumption reduced by 27%. Therefore, replacing multi-objective cropping pattern ,on which the conservation tillage methods are emphasized, with the conventional cropping patterns improves economic and environmental conditions. urity index and minimizing water and urea fertilizer.The results showed that in the multi-objective cropping pattern, gross margin and food security index respectively increase by 23.5% and 6.1% and water and energy consumption decrease by 4% and 5.1% respectively as compared to current cropping pattern. The fuzzy composite distance improves by %36 compares to current condition and represents better cropping pattern than the others. Morever in this cropping pattern, conventional tillage method will be replaced by conservation tillage practices, therefore the amount of diesel fuel consumption reduces by 27% that is equivalent to an annual saving of 567 liters of diesel fuel. Also, the reduction of water consumption is expected to be 10000 cubic meters annually.9 In the cropping pattern, minimizing water consumption, water saving was 27.5% that was equivalent to an annual reduction of 69000 cubic meters of water, while maintaining the gross margin equal to current condition. Also urea fertilizer and energy consumption reduced by 23.7% and 28.5% respectively.
M. Bagheri; A. Esmaieli; M. Zibaei
Abstract
This study develops a long run optimal pattern for nomadic ranchers of Fars province under climate uncertainty by simulating dynamic process of livestock and forage productivity as well as employing dynamic stochastic programming. Results indicate that the nomadic representatives do not perform, optimally. ...
Read More
This study develops a long run optimal pattern for nomadic ranchers of Fars province under climate uncertainty by simulating dynamic process of livestock and forage productivity as well as employing dynamic stochastic programming. Results indicate that the nomadic representatives do not perform, optimally. Despite their attachments to livestock as an asset, and their life dependency on livestock, they intend to maintain their herd under any circumstance and to have large herds during any year. But results of the long run optimal pattern based on the stochastic dynamic programming model indicate that even in a wet year rangeland forage production is not enough for livestock feeding. Accordingly, nomads must adjust their herds and fit numbers of their livestock with the pasture capacity. Therefore, in the long run partial, adjusting strategies on the number of livestock rather than purchasing additional forage is recommended.
A. Mirzaei; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Crop insurance is one of the best strategies to tackle farm risks and encourage producers to adopt modern production technologies. In present study, a sample of 224 insured and uninsured Pistachio growers was selected for interview and collected required data using a simple random sampling method. Then ...
Read More
Crop insurance is one of the best strategies to tackle farm risks and encourage producers to adopt modern production technologies. In present study, a sample of 224 insured and uninsured Pistachio growers was selected for interview and collected required data using a simple random sampling method. Then a logit multinomial model was used to assess factors affecting the choice of supplemental insurance different options. The results showed that effect of activities background, garden size and number of garden pieces variables are significant and positive on acceptance of insurance. Also, the effect of having additional job and increasing age of Pistachio tree are negative and significant on acceptance of insurance. Finally, the results of distinctions among insurance options showed that increasing types of grown Pistachio, risk aversion and high yield intensify the possibility of third option acceptance in comparison with insurance refusal and other insurance options. But less pistachio growers have chosen third option than other insurance options that the result is caused by unaware of pistachio growers, red tape and false suggestions of insurance experts. Therefore, it is recommended that insurance fund provides essential conditions for developing this type of insurance with adopting proper policies.
S. Momeni; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Over the coming decades, global change will have an impact on food and water security and there are strong indications that developing countries will bear the brunt of adverse consequences from climate change. Agricultural sector is the most vulnerable to climate change, because of its dependence on ...
Read More
Over the coming decades, global change will have an impact on food and water security and there are strong indications that developing countries will bear the brunt of adverse consequences from climate change. Agricultural sector is the most vulnerable to climate change, because of its dependence on water and temperature conditions. Consequently, it is important to understand the impacts of climate change on agriculture and natural resources in developing countries. The goal of this study was to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on Fars province’s agricultural sector. To this end, this study was organized in three sections. In the first section, time series data covering 21 years (1988-2008) on crop yields, climate or non-climate related variables were used to estimate yield response functions. In the second section, the yield equations were used to investigate the physical impacts of alternative scenarios. In the final section, a price-endogenous mathematical programming model was used to simulate the welfare impacts of yield changes under various climate change scenarios. Sixteen combinations of alternative climate change scenarios which include 0°, 0.27°, 0.54°, 2.35°centigrade for temperature and -13, -6.5, 0, +20 percents for precipitation were made based on the findings of Ravan (2010). The results showed that both temperature and precipitation had a significant but non-monotonic impact on crop yields. The comparison results indicated that climate change impacts on welfare were mostly positive and the impacts on producers were much more significant than they were on consumers. Social welfare decreases by 1.5 percent if the reduction of precipitation is associated with no change in temperature but it increases by 13 percent at the most humid and warmest scenario. Finally, it was found that temperature is more significant factor than rainfall in the change of social welfare.
N. Mirzaei; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Nomadic Communities have always played a crucial role in meat production by developing creative and sustainable system in utilizing the scarce natural resources. During the last decade, Fars’ nomads have been experiencing changes due to external pressures such as drought that have altered the social, ...
Read More
Nomadic Communities have always played a crucial role in meat production by developing creative and sustainable system in utilizing the scarce natural resources. During the last decade, Fars’ nomads have been experiencing changes due to external pressures such as drought that have altered the social, political and economic landscapes and have also been the cause of decline in the health of rangelands. In fact, drought is one of the most important determinants of the quality of life for nomads. Herders used a number of different strategies to mitigate the effects of drought, however, the two most frequently used strategies are partial liquidation of herds (reduce herd sizes) and purchasing additional feedstuff to overcome the forage shortages. Considering the negative and unexpected consequences of drought, the government has also adopted a package of policies to cope with drought impacts. The purpose of this study was to examine the financial consequences of the frequently used management strategies (liquidation and purchasing additional feed) during extended period of drought and evaluation of government drought management policies in the support of nomadic communities. These management and policy tools should improve the integration of the economic and ecological aspects of drought-induced decisions. To this end, the current study was organized in two sections. In the first section, the effects of drought on the representative farms were quantified and the management strategies were examined using a two-stage stochastic programming model. In the second section, The government drought management policies in the support of nomadic communities were simulated by the model. A sample of 124 producers was interviewed in 2010 . The sampled farms were drawn using a two stage stratified random sampling method. The results indicated that the drought caused the cost of purchasing additional feed to increase by a range between 38 and 77 percent among the representative farms. The effects of drought on the reduction of the herd size ranged between 9 and 34 heads. The results also showed that time, amount of purchasing additional feedstuff and herd liquidation was not optimum at the representative farms. They could improve their economic conditions through moving towards the optimal point. Finally, the government drought management policies based on improving the integration of the economic and ecological aspects of drought-induced decisions could be ranked as follows: The provision of drinking water, providing livestock insurance, providing low-interest rate loans, guarantee of purchasing the excess livestock and the purveyance of a cheaper feedstuff.
E. Ghorbanian; M. Zibaei; M. Ghorbani; M.R. Kohansal
Abstract
Due to limitation of available water and soil resources in Iran, the challenge of optimizing the utilization of these resources has become more significant. One of the solutions to the economic, planning and optimization of water use and achieve the optimum level of water use is associated with improved ...
Read More
Due to limitation of available water and soil resources in Iran, the challenge of optimizing the utilization of these resources has become more significant. One of the solutions to the economic, planning and optimization of water use and achieve the optimum level of water use is associated with improved farming activities and this is the most important agricultural research needs. The study of price and yield time series data between 1999-2009 and questionnaire data (2010-2011) of the plains Kavar in Fars province, has used and determine the optimal amount of water for agricultural cultivation pattern and using mathematical programming models considered. The results show that the maximum profit with the goal of maximizing utility, make more profit, but it is also more water consumption. Also, water consumption and utilization inversely with risk averse farmer is not using all of their water resources.
R. Esfanjari Kenari; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Climate change phenomenon is an important environmental challenge of the world. Increasing extension of greenhouse gases and remote relationship phenomena accelerate the speed f climate change. Changes in precipitation level, drought occurrence and changes in the level of surface and groundwater resources ...
Read More
Climate change phenomenon is an important environmental challenge of the world. Increasing extension of greenhouse gases and remote relationship phenomena accelerate the speed f climate change. Changes in precipitation level, drought occurrence and changes in the level of surface and groundwater resources are the recognized consequences of climate change. In order to study consequences of climate change on agricultural production in Shiraz County, three well rings in Shiraz plain were selected. Mean statistics of water level in wells were regressed on the year during 1978-2008. Using annual statistic of precipitation during 1958-2008 and standard precipitation index (SPI), the probability of dry year incidence was determined. Effects of 5 pumping scenarios with consideration to the probability of dry year incidence were assessed, using two-stage stochastic programming. Results showed that water levels at the desired level of agricultural wells has significant decrease 0.4 percent (p=0.034). The long-run loss of income and farm income under the mild climate change and dry years were 4.5 and 6.4 percent. The short-term loss of income and agricultural income in the same scenarios were estimated from 54 and 30 percent to 74 and 85 percent, respectively. Agricultural water use in the short and long term was estimated less than the status quo. Reduction in water use leads to reduction in yield and farm income in the study area, however, prevents the long-term damages to crop production levels and underground water resources. Ultimately, implementing policies to improve farmer's incentives to sustainable use of water resources are recommended.
A.R. Nikooie; M. Zibaei
Abstract
Irrigated agriculture is an important contributor to the expansion of national food supplies and is expected to play a major role in food security of developing countries. Such countries face water crisis for securing the food staples. Well designed water resource policies potentially can improve the ...
Read More
Irrigated agriculture is an important contributor to the expansion of national food supplies and is expected to play a major role in food security of developing countries. Such countries face water crisis for securing the food staples. Well designed water resource policies potentially can improve the water allocation and use efficiency as well as the food security objectives. This paper presents an hyrdro-economic model implemented through the development of an integrated basin framework for sustaining water resources uses and addressing the food security goals. The objective is to maximize the discounted net present value of the sum of both use and environmental economic benefits over a 10 year time horizon, subject to the basin’s hydrological, agronomic, institutional, and economic structure. Using this approach, optimal water allocations and uses is examined in Zayandeh-Rud River Basin of central Iran. This policy is evaluated against a background of two alternative hydrologic supply scenarios. Three important data sources including survey data, incidental studies, reports, and selected expert knowledge were used to assign all needed data for the model. Results reveal that this program not only increases basin's irrigation efficiency, but also improves the food security through increasing proportional sharing of downstream irrigated districts in the food staple productions under reduced water supply. The study approach and the results contributes to realize effective policies toward sustainable management of water resources under water scarcity circumstances. We conclude that river basin analysis within an integrated framework would considerably enhance the effectiveness of sustainable water resource management as well as provide food security for current and future generations.
F. Pourzand; M. Zibaei
Abstract
AbstractOne of the important economic problems in arid and semi-arid regions is insufficient water for agricultural purposes as it is evident for other purposes. Accordingly, sustainable management of water resources becomes an important challenge for policymakers. This study investigated water use planning ...
Read More
AbstractOne of the important economic problems in arid and semi-arid regions is insufficient water for agricultural purposes as it is evident for other purposes. Accordingly, sustainable management of water resources becomes an important challenge for policymakers. This study investigated water use planning based on the fluctuation of rainfall and the random nature of water resources in Firozabad plain of Fars province. A decision support system was developed to allocate surface water and groundwater among farmers in dry, wet and normal years. To conduct the study, the stochastic goal programming approach with two goals of farm management and environmental impact was applied. The data was collected from Fars Regional Water Authority in 1985-2007. To make a decision, the model yields three reduction coefficients of surface water, standard groundwater and complementary groundwater for the three periods of dry, wet and normal months. The results show that, in drought periods, the model recommends using more groundwater than in wet periods in order to save surface water.
F. Fathi; M. Zibaei
Abstract
AbstractLevel of groundwater is decreased which is mainly because, withdrawal of groundwater is increased, because of lack of right management. Economics of rural based farming and farming is dependent of water so decreasing of groundwater effects social welfare. In this study decrease of welfare measure ...
Read More
AbstractLevel of groundwater is decreased which is mainly because, withdrawal of groundwater is increased, because of lack of right management. Economics of rural based farming and farming is dependent of water so decreasing of groundwater effects social welfare. In this study decrease of welfare measure by reason of reduction of groundwater level considered. This study investigated the impact of withdrawal on a measure of social welfare with using econometric model. Production function and social model was estimated. Data were obtained for semi-deep and deep well, so 130 farmers were chosen at 2007-2008 in Firoozabad plain with a random sampling method. Results show that value of marginal product is more than cost of withdrawal of water. Social welfare decrease 924110 and 431210 tomans by decreasing of one meter in level of groundwater for semi-deep and deep well, respectively. The result indicated that loss of social welfare is estimated to be 8.1 and 3.8 tomans per cubic metric reduction in groundwater for semi-deep and deep well, respectively.
H. Ramezani Amiri; M. Zibaei
Abstract
AbstractIntensive and inefficient use of energy leads to degradation of natural resources and environmental problems. This study evaluated the relationship between the energy of consumed inputs and yield of tomato, cucumber and melon using the Cobb–Douglas production function. The data were collected ...
Read More
AbstractIntensive and inefficient use of energy leads to degradation of natural resources and environmental problems. This study evaluated the relationship between the energy of consumed inputs and yield of tomato, cucumber and melon using the Cobb–Douglas production function. The data were collected from 90 farmers in Firoozabad using a questionnaire. The farmers were chosen by simple random sampling method. Econometric estimation results showed that energy inputs of human forces, machinery and irrigation water have significant and positive effects on yields of tomato and cucumber. While energy inputs of working force, chemical substances and irrigation water contributed significantly and positively to the yield of melon, the effect of fertilizer on the yield of this crop was negative. The impact of human labour energy was found the highest among the other energy inputs in tomato and melon production, but in cucumber production the highest share was related to the irrigation water. The results also indicated that the impact of indirect energy was higher than the impact of direct energy and the contribution of non-renewable energy was higher than renewable energy on yield of the studied crops.
S.A. Hosseini Yekani; M. Zibaei
Abstract
AbstractIn this paper an attempt is made to determine the most suitable agricultural commodities to be adopted for establishing a futures market in Iran. Two different approaches are adopted: the first involves identifying factors that contribute significantly to the success or failure of existing agricultural ...
Read More
AbstractIn this paper an attempt is made to determine the most suitable agricultural commodities to be adopted for establishing a futures market in Iran. Two different approaches are adopted: the first involves identifying factors that contribute significantly to the success or failure of existing agricultural commodities futures contracts in established futures markets. The second involves simulating the hedging performance of potential commodities to determine the optimum contract choice. According the results of this study, commercialization rates, cash market size and spot price fluctuations of commodities have the greatest effects in the success of their futures trading. Also, although some of commodities have acceptable levels of the necessary conditions for entering them into futures market, they don’t have enough attraction for their use as futures contracts in terms of producers' hedging effectiveness. The results suggest that saffron, pistachios and rice are the three most feasible commodities to be adopted in order to establish commodity futures trading in Iran.
M. Baghestani; M. Zibaei
Abstract
AbstractWater pricing is a policy instrument for improving water efficiency, reducing water demand, management of the irrigation systems and recovering costs. The underlying principle of water pricing is that it should reflect the opportunity cost of water. In this study, Parametric Mathematical Programming ...
Read More
AbstractWater pricing is a policy instrument for improving water efficiency, reducing water demand, management of the irrigation systems and recovering costs. The underlying principle of water pricing is that it should reflect the opportunity cost of water. In this study, Parametric Mathematical Programming approache were used to estimate the willingness of farmers to pay for groundwater under different conditions of water supply and crop patterns and during different time periods. Required data were obtained from a random sample of 190 farmers in Ramjerd Plain using Stratified Random Sampling. The results provided indicated that the average WTP value varies between 427 to 562 Rials/m3. So, farmers are willing to pay at least one and half times the prevailing price of water. The WTP of farmers who use groundwater and surface water conjunctively was less than the WTP of farmers who use only groundwater. The results also showed that water demand is elastic in wet seasons (η=1.37) but it is inelastic in dry seasons (η=0.39. Finally, farmers tend to use deficit irrigation strategies and to improve water efficiency when water price increases.JEL classification: C13, C14, Q25, Q28
M. Zibaei; S. Ghazali
Abstract
Selection of optimal sizes of machinery and their proper investment are the main problems in the agricultural machinery. This study has done to optimize machinery sizes in agricultural college farm of Shiraz university. The crop plan includes: 130 ha wheat, 70 ha rapeseed, 100 ha corn, 25 ha alfalfa ...
Read More
Selection of optimal sizes of machinery and their proper investment are the main problems in the agricultural machinery. This study has done to optimize machinery sizes in agricultural college farm of Shiraz university. The crop plan includes: 130 ha wheat, 70 ha rapeseed, 100 ha corn, 25 ha alfalfa and 4 ha coloured. A nonـ linear mixed integer programming model is used to minimize total annual costs includes: fixed costs, variable costs and timeliness costs. This model implemented by using General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) software. Results show that machinery sizes simulated by model for operating width and load capacity are significantly different from actual sizes that used in sample farm and just sprayer and trailer sizes are as same as 400 and 4000 kilogram load capacity. Some sizes suggested larger and some smaller. For tractor suggested 8 number but greater power 85 hp/each. Non- agreement between optimal sizes and actual sizes shows different between optimal costs and actual costs. So that optimal total annual costs per hectare are less than actual total annual costs per hectare. Also operations schedule provided in various weeks of the year, that shows operations distribution in the course of time. This is a good guide for farm director to do operations schedule.
S. Ghazali; M. Zibaei
Abstract
AbstractThis study shows the relationship between environmental pollution and economical growth by Kuznets hypothesis which has drived from provincial data during 1375 - 1385. Carbon monoxide pollution as environmental index and gross national product as economical index have been used. fix effects have ...
Read More
AbstractThis study shows the relationship between environmental pollution and economical growth by Kuznets hypothesis which has drived from provincial data during 1375 - 1385. Carbon monoxide pollution as environmental index and gross national product as economical index have been used. fix effects have been preferred to random effects based on F test for estimation of environmental kuznets curve by panel data. The vald test result through the model evaluation shows the cubic increasingly relation between two environmental and economical indexes. So this study has been done on five provinces: Esfahan, Tehran, Khorasan, Fars and Mazandaran during a decade, that shows increasing pollution due to economical growth. So it is necessary that the government do positive effort to reduction the pollution and effective decides should be provide for environment protection.