Agricultural Economics
mahdi pendar; mohammad rezvani; eyed Safdar Hosseini; Hamed Rafiee
Abstract
IntroductionThe economy of countries are always exposed to shocks, including the Covid-19 pandemic, which cause various problems. The epidemic of Covid-19 has had various effects and consequences in various sectors, including the agricultural sector. So that the decrease in income and production and ...
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IntroductionThe economy of countries are always exposed to shocks, including the Covid-19 pandemic, which cause various problems. The epidemic of Covid-19 has had various effects and consequences in various sectors, including the agricultural sector. So that the decrease in income and production and the loss of customers according to health quarantines and border closures have severely affected the business of farmers and created many problems for activists of various sectors of the agriculture. One of the most important effects of the Covid-19 pandemic is the reduction of economic growth worldwide. This issue has resulted in to an increase in unemployment and a decrease in the people's purchasing power in the community and a decrease in demand. According to the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on food demand as a result of disorder in the supply chain and income impulses, the purpose of this research is to investigate the existence of a structural failure in the preferences of livestock products (red meat, chicken, eggs and milk) of Iranian consumers using the Quadratic almost ideal demand system and the switching regression framework developed by Ohtani & Katayama (1986) in the period of spring 2015 to winter 2022.Materials and MethodsNonparametric and parametric approaches are used to investigate structural failure in consumer preferences. The parametric approaches and Quadratic almost ideal demand system is employed to assess the structural failure. The switching regression framework proposed by Ohtani and Katayama (1986) is utilized to model structural changes in preferences. In fact, a time transition function enters the demand system. Based on the characteristics of demand in the literature of structural changes, Bewley likelihood-ratio test is applied to select an appropriate model.In order to evaluate the structural failure and calculate the price and income elasticities, the price and per capita consumption data of livestock products are needed, and in this research, seasonal time series data for the period of spring 2015 to winter 2022 have been used. The information related to the price of livestock products was obtained from the Joint Stock Company of the Support of Livestock Affairs. To get the per capita consumption, first, the information on the amount of production of red meat, chicken, milk, and eggs was received from the joint stock company for livestock affairs. Then, by summing the amount of production and the amount of import of red meat, chicken, milk and eggs and deducting the amount of export from the said amount and dividing it by the population of the country, the amount of consumption per capita was calculated. The amount of export and import of red meat, chicken, milk and eggs is taken from the export and import report of the Ministry of Agriculture (Jihad), which is published monthly. Results and DiscussionIn order to estimate the system equations, one of the equations was removed and other ones were solved based the previous one, followed by estimation. Accordingly, the equation related to the removed milk and the QAIDS with 33 parameters and three equations including those related to red meat, chicken and egg were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimator non-linearly. The results show the Based on the statistics of log-likelihood and DW the existence of a gradual structural failure as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Comparing the statistics of Bewley likelihood ratio test calculated for an unlimited QAIDS (with structural failure) and a limited one (without structural failure) with a critical χ^2 value with degrees of freedom of nine at the probability level of 5% indicates that the unlimited QAIDS is selected as the appropriate functional one. Also, the results show that after the Covid-19 epidemic, the price of red meat and chicken has increased dramatically. Considering the high elasticity of the price of red meat, chicken and eggs after the Covid-19 epidemic, it is suggested that the government use price tools to support consumers. ConclusionDue to the high cross-elasticity coefficients of demand for red meat, chicken and eggs after the Covid-19 pandemic, it can be expected that a change in the price of one of the red meat, chicken and egg products will significantly change the demand for the other product. slow, therefore, in the application of optimal demand management and consumption pattern planning, the use of substitute product price policies can be useful.Keywords: Change of Preference, quadratic almost ideal demand system, structural failure
Agricultural Economics
F. Vajdi Hokm Abad; H. Rafiee; A.H. Chizari; S. Yazdani; S.S. Hosseini
Abstract
In contemporary marketing, maintaining and enhancing customer loyalty toward a company's products or services has become a primary focus. Among the factors influencing customer loyalty is ethical marketing, a field of applied ethics related to the principles governing behavior, advertising, and regulation ...
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In contemporary marketing, maintaining and enhancing customer loyalty toward a company's products or services has become a primary focus. Among the factors influencing customer loyalty is ethical marketing, a field of applied ethics related to the principles governing behavior, advertising, and regulation in marketing. Over the past two decades, ethical consumerism has grown in importance due to increasing social and environmental concerns. This study examines the impact of ethical components on Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) for dairy product consumers in Tehran in 2023. A total of 710 questionnaires were completed, and the GWRFM method was employed to extract the necessary information for calculating CLV. The results revealed a high frequency of clusters with low lifetime value. In the subsequent phase, multinomial logit regression was utilized to analyze the effect of ethical components on CLV, highlighting the significant positive impact of adherence to industry regulations and acceptance of social responsibility. Therefore, it is recommended that stakeholders in the dairy industry assure customers of their compliance with regulations and social responsibility to elevate them to higher-value clusters and foster loyalty. By respecting ethical norms, a substantial portion of consumers of cheese, yogurt, and ayran products may transition toward becoming valuable customers in this sector.
Agricultural Economics
S. Sadafi Abkenar; A.H. Chizari; H. Rafiee; H. Salami
Abstract
Iran Mercantile Exchange is striving to become a regional hub for price discovery of essential commodities and raw materials, providing producers with financial instruments and risk management tools. This study investigates the optimal hedge ratio in future and commodity deposit receipts (spot) contracts ...
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Iran Mercantile Exchange is striving to become a regional hub for price discovery of essential commodities and raw materials, providing producers with financial instruments and risk management tools. This study investigates the optimal hedge ratio in future and commodity deposit receipts (spot) contracts for Round Fandoghi pistachios. Using the BEKK-VAR-TARCH model, the impact of seasonal and daily volatility on returns and hedge ratios was assessed over the period from 19 October 2018 to 18 January 2022. The results showed that volatility on specific days of the week and during different seasons affect speculative and investment decisions in the commodity exchange. Particularly, sharp volatility during certain periods can lead to significant changes in returns and hedge ratios. These findings suggest that investors should update their investment strategies based on seasonal and daily volatilities. Additionally, the importance of utilizing financial instruments suited to market conditions for managing existing risks was confirmed. Ultimately, investors, speculators, and policymakers in the commodity exchange are advised to pay special attention to temporal changes and existing volatilities when composing their investment portfolios and adjusting hedge strategies. Furthermore, the use of futures contracts and derivative instruments is recommended as risk management approaches. This study contributes to a better understanding of volatility behavior and offers strategies for improved risk management in the Round Fandoghi pistachio market.
Agricultural Economics
A. Kazem Pour; H. Rafiee; H. Noroozi; S.A. Zarer; L. Yousefzadeh; M. Kaboudtabar
Abstract
Introduction In the modern world, there is interdependence between the economies of different countries and it is difficult to find a country that has a closed economy. In other words, all the economies of the world are interconnected, but the degree of openness of the economy varies from country ...
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Introduction In the modern world, there is interdependence between the economies of different countries and it is difficult to find a country that has a closed economy. In other words, all the economies of the world are interconnected, but the degree of openness of the economy varies from country to country. One of the ways to reach global markets in transition countries is to develop the export of non-oil products, especially agricultural products, which cannot be achieved without considering the market structure of exportable commodities. Due to the high share of the country in the production of this product versus its small share in the export of this product and on the other hand the lack of comprehensive research on determining appropriate target markets and active presence in it, the present study seeks to examine the comparative advantage , The structure of the export market and finally the prioritization of the target countries of Iranian tomato export using numerical taxonomy (by prioritizing the target countries of Iran based on a set of indicators) to provide scientific solutions to producers of this product to identify and select the appropriate target market.Materials and Methods Considering the high potential of the country in the field of tomato production and export, the present study was conducted with the aim of examining the comparative advantage, determining the structure of the export market and prioritizing the export target markets of this product in Iran. The study period of this research is 2001-2018. For this purpose, the present study has examined the business model and structure of the export market of tomatoes in Iran and the world using the revealed comparative advantage, symmetric revealed comparative advantage, concentration ratios and Herfindahl-Hirschman index. After introducing the indicators of comparative advantage, the market structure index will be examined. Market structure reflects the organizational characteristics of the market, including the concentration of sellers, buyers' concentration, entry conditions and the degree of homogeneity of goods, which can be identified by identifying the nature of pricing, market competition and market type between competition and complete monopoly. Then, in order to prioritize the target markets of Iranian tomatoes, the method of numerical taxonomy analysis was used, which can be used to rank the regions in terms of comparative advantages and potentials and capacities. In this method, first each set is transformed into a homogeneous set based on the desired indicators and then prioritization will be done based on the expressed indicators.Results and Discussion The study of tomato export trends in recent years shows that there is a growth in the export value of this product, but in contrast to the export advantage of Iranian tomatoes during the period under review has been accompanied by many fluctuations and this indicates a competitive risk for tomato exporters in the country. Therefore, adopting policies for permanent monitoring and policy-making to improve the level of competitiveness of Iranian exporters, such as raising the quality of packaging, advertising to introduce the product in new and developed markets, as well as setting preferential tariffs with other countries seems necessary. The study of the structure of the Iranian tomato market showed that during the period under review, the structure of the Iranian tomato export market was not diverse and focused on a few specific countries, which caused instability and a decrease in foreign currency income from tomato exports. The bargaining power of Iran in the world market of this product has decreased, which has ultimately been to the detriment of Iran and the benefit of importing countries. Therefore, it is recommended in the field of trade of this product by identifying new and emerging export target markets and shipping commodities to these countries, as well as increasing the number of export target markets and bringing Iran's export market closer to a competitive state, to prevent Iran's tomato exports to concentrate on a few limited and traditional markets (dominant firm).Conclusion In this study, using the method of numerical taxonomy analysis as an efficient method, we tried to identify Iran's export target markets during the period 2001-2009. Finally, according to the ten indicators of market attractiveness, potential target markets for future exports of Iranian tomatoes were selected. The results of prioritizing the target markets of Iranian tomatoes showed that out of 25 countries importing Iranian tomatoes, 23 countries were among the target markets for exporting Iranian tomatoes. Among the major actual markets of Iranian tomatoes, which account for the largest imports of this product from Iran, only 4 countries, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, UAE and Armenia are among the 10 countries with high priority, and the rest of the importers of tomatoes from Iran is considered as a target market with low priority. Therefore, in the export of tomatoes, a policy should be adopted that shifts the main focus to high-priority countries to penetrate them with full awareness of all the conditions of the target markets, especially the tastes of customers.
Agricultural Economics
Gh. Ghasemi; H. Rafiee; E. Mehrparvar Hosseini
Abstract
Agricultural and food industry exports are one of the strategies for export development and sustainable economic growth in developing countries. Since Iran has been among the top ten countries in the export of tomatoes and tomato paste in recent years, the purpose of this article was to compare the global ...
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Agricultural and food industry exports are one of the strategies for export development and sustainable economic growth in developing countries. Since Iran has been among the top ten countries in the export of tomatoes and tomato paste in recent years, the purpose of this article was to compare the global market structure of these two products as two links in the tomato supply chain and calculate the revealed comparative advantage of their exports in the world and the target countries. According to the results, the global market structure of both products in the period 2010-2018, despite the high share of the top four market powers, has been an open oligopoly for most of the years, which indicates a small share of the most competitors and high competition between them. However, due to the large share and stability of market leadership, it is unlikely that small countries will be able to capture the share of large countries. Therefore, it is suggested that Iran, with an average share of 1.61 percent in the tomato market and 5.30 percent in the paste market, prioritize a number of markets in which it has more competitiveness for market penetration, market development, and branding. On average, exports of tomatoes and tomato paste to Turkmenistan, Iraq, and Afghanistan have had the greatest comparative advantage for Iran. It is proposed to prioritize competition, market development, and branding in a number of markets in which it has competitiveness and stability based on the revealed comparative advantage index, including Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. It is worth mentioning that due to the higher comparative advantage of tomato paste compared to tomato, its higher added value, more branding, and storage and transportation capabilities, it is recommended, with the development of investment in food processing industries and the completion of supply chain and marketing. Development of the export market of tomato paste should be a priority of the country.
A. Amjadi; H. Rafiee; N. Moghaddas
Abstract
According to amount of oil seeds import in Iran are more than 80% of domestic needs, in this study, import comparative advantage in soybeans using RCA and RSCA index is calculated in 1961-2008 periods for Iran and ten important importer countries. Iran’s Competition state is investigated. Also long ...
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According to amount of oil seeds import in Iran are more than 80% of domestic needs, in this study, import comparative advantage in soybeans using RCA and RSCA index is calculated in 1961-2008 periods for Iran and ten important importer countries. Iran’s Competition state is investigated. Also long run relation between production and import comparative advantage index is estimated using Johansen test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results show that Iran has import comparative advantage in soybean import, but shock effects on amount of this index, adjusted in more time than others. Therefore, exporter countries will have less willingness for export to Iran. In this aspect, importance of domestic production’s increase for domestic needs will be imperative. Also results showed that with increasing domestic production in long run, amount of Iran’s import comparative advantage will be decreased and therefore with decreasing import to country, less exchange will be out of our country.
S.A. Mortazavi; E. Darbandi; p. Alaei Borujeni; H. Rafiee
Abstract
Abstract According to the importance of date export in Iran, this study investigates short run and long run relationship between date export and important economical variable, specifically exchange rate. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL) to cointegration is applied to ...
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Abstract According to the importance of date export in Iran, this study investigates short run and long run relationship between date export and important economical variable, specifically exchange rate. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL) to cointegration is applied to annually time-series data from 1981 to 2007. Results showed that the exchange rate, export price of date and agricultural value added have positive and statistically significant impacts on export value of date in both long and short-run. According to the results, it’s recommended to apply appropriate policy about exchange rate. Finally, according to estimated coefficient of the Error Correction Model (ECM), in each period 66 percent of short run imbalance toward the long-run equilibrium is adjusted.
H. Amirnejad; H. Rafiee
Abstract
It is very important to analyze the rice market structure in Mazandaran province, as this province is competent to produce rice. Mazandaran rice market was analyzed by completing 55 questionnaires in Producer, wholesaler and retailers level, randomly in 2009. Results show that marketing margins of two ...
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It is very important to analyze the rice market structure in Mazandaran province, as this province is competent to produce rice. Mazandaran rice market was analyzed by completing 55 questionnaires in Producer, wholesaler and retailers level, randomly in 2009. Results show that marketing margins of two Varieties namely- local (Tarom) and multi-product- were 5850 and 3700 rials, respectively; also, the rice wholesale marketing margin is more than its retail marketing margin and producer proportion for local and multi-product have been estimated 58.214 and 52.564 percent, respectively. The wholesaler share is more than retailer share in rice market for both types. As whole, by existence of wholesalers, inefficiency of the market will increase; the producer-wholesaler-consumer channel has been the most inefficient marketing rout in case of price, technical and total inefficiency but the producer-consumer rout has been the most efficient one. Estimating the cost coefficient imply that 11.143 and 20 percent of total cost relate to marketing cost in local and multi-product markets, respectively. There is a lot of difference between sum of marketing costs and farm cost in two types markets. So these markets are not clear and this cause to decrease their efficiency. According to estimated total marketing margin function, in two types markets, retail price and marketing cost have significant effects on total marketing margin and retail price has higher and more significant effect on total marketing margin. Therefore, if retail price increase by 1 percent, total marketing margin will increase 1.625 and 1.436 percent in local and multi-product markets, respectively.
H. Salami; H. Rafiee
Abstract
AbstractThis study investigates the presence of financial constraint and its possible effect on the level of rice production in Gilan and Mazandaran provinces. To this end, an Indirect Production Function was estimated using 2007 crop year production data. Results support the claim that shortage of financial ...
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AbstractThis study investigates the presence of financial constraint and its possible effect on the level of rice production in Gilan and Mazandaran provinces. To this end, an Indirect Production Function was estimated using 2007 crop year production data. Results support the claim that shortage of financial resources is a limiting factor in all cities in these two provinces such that the available financial resources in Gilan and Mazandaran is 23.01 percent and 21.04 percent, respectively, less than the amount required to finance optimum level of production. This limitation has resulted in a 24.78 percent and 23.22 percent decline in production, respectively in Gilan and Mazandaran, as compared to a non-constraint situation. Given the share of these two provinces in providing the rice product needed in the country, supplying sufficient level of financial resources can play a considerable role in reducing import of this product.
S.S. Hosseini; H. Rafiee
Abstract
AbstractAccording to considerable wight of pistachio in non-oil export of Iran, the production and export advantage of this product are estimated using indices like scale, efficiency, integrated, revealed and symmetric revealed advantage as well as their growth for the period of 1990 – 2005. Results ...
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AbstractAccording to considerable wight of pistachio in non-oil export of Iran, the production and export advantage of this product are estimated using indices like scale, efficiency, integrated, revealed and symmetric revealed advantage as well as their growth for the period of 1990 – 2005. Results show that scale advantage index for Iran is much higher than its rivals while Syria and Turkey had the highest efficiency advantage and highest efficiency advantage growth, respectively. Highest integrated advantage and highest growth of this index belonged to Iran and Italy, respectively. Despite Iran's advantage in pistachio export, its growth is negative for the studying period (- 44.05 percent) while competitors had positive growth. A decline, for any reason, in exporting advantage of Iran's pistachio would lead an increase in rivals' advantages and their market share. Statistics show that the policies carried out during the Third Development Program were successful in improving production efficiency and penetrating into world markets. Policy making in the direction of reducing production costs, improving commodity quality and using suitable processing method will cause sustainable and successful presence in world markets.