H. Tamidy; H. Mohammadi; D. Seify Gharhitaq; V. Dehbashi
Abstract
Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process ...
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Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry.
Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered:
1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset
2 -large underlying asset cash market
3- The possibility of standardizing the underlying asset
4- Impossibility of creating cross supply of the underlying asset
In addition, after the introduction of the model parameters, we offers method calculating of the volatility (standard deviation) price with using historical data (time series). Parameters of Blk- Scholes model are introduced and option contract of selected product will pricing. After effect of the rise and fall agreement prices (in the form of 9-defined scenario) on the price of put option and sales option are studied.
In this study, after forming the hypothetical option market for the Canola, option pricing is done. In this section, the criteria for selecting an appropriate asset base is expressed for option contract. The Black–Scholes model is introduced for the valuation of call option and European put option contract. After introducing the model parameters, the calculation of volatility (standard deviation) of price using historical data (time series) is presented .To achieve this aim, the Black – Scholes model was used under 9 strike price scenario of 5, 10, 15, 20 percent above; 5, 10, 15, and 20 percent lower and finally equal to current prices. This model was run in Excel 2010 and Derivea gem 1.5.
Results and Discussion: The results showed 43% price volatility for canola that reflects uncertainty in its price. In the next stage of pricing, the purchase and sale of the selected product was done under the nine price scenarios. The results showed that the highest authority to purchase option was for scenario K1 and the highest buy option was for the K9 scenario. The least expensive buy option is K9 and the least expensive sell option is K1.
Conclusion: The results show that the increase of strike price under these scenarios leads to a decrease of call option price and decrease of put option price. In addition, the farmers, businesspersons and agricultural products transforming factories with a different degree of risk disclosure can participate in these markets proportional to their needs for covering the risk
Farmers with various degrees of risk involved in this market Thus , people with a higher risk, are seeking the to pay less right of option and in turn, receive less coverage. Similarly, farmers with less risk-averse, demand pay to higher right of options for themselves cover against the risk of price in future.
Keywords: Option Market, Call Options, Put Options, Canola