S. Roudari; M. Homayounifar; M. Salimifar
Abstract
Introduction: The banking sector has a financial intermediary role and can directly and indirectly support the growth of the real sector of the economy. In countries such as Iran whose economy is bank-based, economic growth is largely dependent on bank loans and according to macroeconomic changes, banking ...
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Introduction: The banking sector has a financial intermediary role and can directly and indirectly support the growth of the real sector of the economy. In countries such as Iran whose economy is bank-based, economic growth is largely dependent on bank loans and according to macroeconomic changes, banking flexibility has a great importance in economic development. On the other hand, according to the policies of the agricultural sector in the development perspective document, which insist on food security of the country by relying on production from domestic sources and emphasize on the self-sufficiency of production of basic products, the development of the agricultural sector has always been a matter of concern for the policymakers. One of the most important limitations in the agricultural sector is the limitation of financial resources for using modern technologies and the creation of higher added value products. Among the factors influencing the formation of an efficient financing system is the instability in other financial markets, especially the exchange rate, which affects the country's GDP and creates cyclical effects, finally affecting the performance of the banking sector. In fact, the impact of GDP on banking ability to provide facilities during periods of recession and booms is explained through business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of fluctuations in some asset markets such as exchange rate and stock index along with the variables of business cycles and agricultural products import on the efficiency of agricultural facilities.Materials and Methods: In the present study, several econometric models have been used to investigate the effect of exchange rate and stock index fluctuations and business cycles on the efficiency of agricultural facilities. Initially, wavelet transform model was used to extract exchange rate and stock index fluctuations. The Daubechies discrete wavelet was used for this purpose. The advantage of this approach over the family of Arch models is the ability to distinguish fluctuations across time periods. In addition, Hodrick Prescott filter was used to extract business cycles, and Bootstrap data envelopment analysis approach was applied to evaluate the efficiency of agricultural facilities. The advantage of this approach over the data envelopment analysis approach is its bias correction and greater stability. The Markov switching model was also used to estimate the final research pattern. The used period in the study is 1384:1-1396:4.Results and Discussion: According to Hamilton's study, the intercept that has the lowest coefficient indicates a low regime (low efficiency of facilities granted to the agricultural sector) and the intercept with a highest coefficient indicates the high regime (high efficiency of facilities granted to agriculture). Therefore, the zero regime in the present study indicates the high efficiency regime while regime indicates the low efficiency regime of the granted facilities. Based on the results of model estimation, the occurrence of business cycles in all regimes would lead to decline in the efficiency of the banking network facilities provided to the agricultural sector. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations depends on the time period. Short-term fluctuations have no significant effect on facility efficiency but medium- and long-term fluctuations have a negative significant impact. If the currency market volatility persists, it would reduce the efficiency, regardless of the regime and the level of efficiency of the facility. Of course long-term exchange rate fluctuations will have a stronger negative impact when the regime of agricultural facilities efficiency is high. Stock index fluctuations in the medium and long term also have a positive and significant impact when the efficiency of agricultural facilities is high. In case of high efficiency level of agricultural facilities, increasing imports of agricultural products will lead to decrease in efficiency.Conclusion: In many studies on the effect of exchange rate, stock fluctuations, and business cycles on the performance of the banking network, several important factors have been ignored such as regime changes, and time-scale in the efficiency of facilities granted to the agricultural sector. Due to different impacts of exchange rate and stock index fluctuations across different time periods as well as on the different efficiency regimes of agricultural sector facilities, the policymakers of currency and capital market should manage currency and stocks based on the volatility period and the level of efficiency of facility. In fact, in such situation, the nonperforming loans will be less and the banking network will not have problem to finance the agricultural sector.
M.A. Falahi; M. Homayounifar; Z. Yavari
Abstract
As the world trade is growing, exchange rate acts as a bridge between different economies and its volatility can affect price level, output, exports and imports. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of real exchange rate volatility on the export demand for the two products of apple ...
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As the world trade is growing, exchange rate acts as a bridge between different economies and its volatility can affect price level, output, exports and imports. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of real exchange rate volatility on the export demand for the two products of apple and potato in the nine developing counteries of producing and exporting the two products during the period of 1992-2009 years.To achieve the goal, using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, the real exchange rate volatility was estimated. Then the effects of exchange rate volatility on the export demand for apple and potato were analysed based on the panel data approach. The results indicate positive effects of real exchange rate and negative effects of real exchange rate volatility on the export demand. The weighted average income of importing countries has a positive effect and the relative export price of apple and potato has a negative effect on the export demand.
M. Raei Jadidi; M. Homayounifar; M. Sabouhi; V. Kheradmand
Abstract
AbstractThe aim of this study was to determine the input–output energy consumption in different levels of tomato production. The data used in the study were obtained from 140 tomato growers in different villages of Marand Township by using a face to face questionnaire. The results showed that the ...
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AbstractThe aim of this study was to determine the input–output energy consumption in different levels of tomato production. The data used in the study were obtained from 140 tomato growers in different villages of Marand Township by using a face to face questionnaire. The results showed that the amount of energy consumed in tomato production was 65.2 GJha-1 which about 51% of this was generated by chemical fertilizers and 21% from water for irrigation. Energy ratio and productivity was found to be 0.59 and 0.74 KgMJ-1, respectively. About 30.9% of the total energy inputs were renewable while about 69.1% were non-renewable. The results showed that medium farms were more successful in energy use efficiency and productivity, too. It was concluded that energy use management by using livestock manure, proper using of machines and reform culture at farm level could be improved to give more efficient use of energy in region.
M. Homayounifar; F. Rastegaripour
Abstract
In the present study, water allocation of Latian Dam between agricultural products was evaluated by using inexact two-stage optimization model and the final results were compared to a fuzzy interval. Data were collected from the Regional Water and Agricultural Organization of Tehran province for 1991 ...
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In the present study, water allocation of Latian Dam between agricultural products was evaluated by using inexact two-stage optimization model and the final results were compared to a fuzzy interval. Data were collected from the Regional Water and Agricultural Organization of Tehran province for 1991 to 2009 years. The results showed that by using interval fuzzy programming, 63%, 69%, 49% and 33% of water requirements of barley, agricultural products, vegetables and forage maize crops would be required at the best condition, respectively but the final amount of water allocated to wheat is not known accurately. Also by using inexact two-stage optimization model in the case that water demand reaches to its lowest value, the system administrator works conservatively, and promises low water demand goal to the consumers. This will cause water shortage compared to the optimum condition. But when the target water demand reaches to the highest level, the manager put the water optimistically to the consumers. In this case, water shortage variable would increase in comparison to the optimum case. Comparison of the two models showed that the inexact fuzzy two-stage optimization model simultaneously increases system profit and uncertainty.
H. Tavana; M. Homayounifar
Abstract
AbstractConsumer rational behavior is the first and basic presumption for representation and development of economic theories and relations in field of consumer behavior. For the most part investigations related to demand function, the estimation results is correct while demand function and implied utility ...
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AbstractConsumer rational behavior is the first and basic presumption for representation and development of economic theories and relations in field of consumer behavior. For the most part investigations related to demand function, the estimation results is correct while demand function and implied utility be a good estimations of real utility and demand functions. This is not a testable hypothesis. Then, should be prove accuracy of rational behavior hypothesis. There exists only one method to investigate accuracy of rational behavior hypothesis and this is revealed preference. Used data in this study is monthly price and consumption quantity of vegetable oil that is mustered from Refah Chain Stores during 3 years (2004-2006). Test results indicated existence of 13 violations that did not rectify using generalized Afriat index and using graphical methodology of de Peretti, whole of period divided to two sub period, April 2004 to December 2005, and, January 2005 to February 2006, without any violations. Rupture in utility function is appeared as consumption reduction in more of studied rigid vegetable oils and approximate stability in liquid oils consumption. Thus, it could be prospected consumption reduction of vegetable oil in Iranian households by continuous medical and publicity policies about consumption detriments of vegetable oil.