بررسی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تولیدات کل زراعی در نواحی ده‌گانه زراعی– اکولوژیکی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه یاسوج

چکیده

اقلیم، آمیخته­ای از ویژگی­های چیره­شده و ماندگار جوی یک گستره­ی جغرافیایی در گذر زمان است و در پی تغییر آن، چگونگی زندگی انسان­ها نیز تغییر می­کند و منجر به آسیب به بخش­های مختلف مانند کشاورزی و محیط زیست می­شود. هدف از انجام تحقیق حاضر، بررسی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تولیدات کل زراعی در نواحی ده­گانه زراعی – اکولوژیکی ایران است. مطالعه حاضر تأثیر بارش، دما، تبخیر و تعرق، رطوبت نسبی و سرعت باد بر تولیدات کل زراعی در طی سال­های 1364 تا 1394 مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. داده­های خام اولیه برای انجام این مطالعه از طریق سازمان هواشناسی و وزارت جهاد کشاورزی کشور گردآوری و مرتب گردید. پس از بررسی ایستایی، داده­ها در قالب داده پانل با اثرات تصادفی برآورد شدند. نتایج نشان داد متغیرهای دما، میزان تبخیر و تعرق و سرعت باد در سطح 5 درصد و متغیر بارش در سطح ده درصد بر تولیدات کل زراعی اثرگذار بوده­اند. دما اثر منفی بر تولیدات زراعی داشته است به نحوی که با افزایش دما، تولیدات زراعی به میزان 01/1 میلیون تن کاهش می­یابد. متغیر بارش بر تولیدات زراعی اثر مثبت دارد و با افزایش بارندگی، تولیدات زراعی به اندازه­ی 025/0 میلیون تن افزایش خواهد یافت. متغیرهای تبخیر و تعرق و سرعت باد اثر منفی بر تولیدات زراعی داشته است به نحوی که با افزایش تبخیر و تعرق و سرعت باد، تولیدات زراعی به ترتیب به میزان 08/0 و 02/1 میلیون تن کاهش پیدا می­کنند.

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