تأثیر تغییرات اقلیم و کمبود آب بر تصمیم‌های آبیاری کشاورزان استان خراسان شمالی: محصولات عمده زراعی

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• آسیه عزیزی
• حسین مهرابی
• محمدرضا زارع مهرجردی

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2021.70253.1046

چکیده

در این مقاله، اثر کمبود آب و شرایط اقلیمی بر تصمیمات آبیاری کشاورزان در تولید محصولات عمده زراعی گندم، جو، پنبه، چغندرقند و یونجه در استان خراسان شمالی ارزیابی شده است. تصمیم­های آبیاری کشاورزان در قالب یک مدل مدیریت شامل معادلات سهم اراضی آبی، پذیرش تکنولوژی آبیاری و دفعات آبیاری مزرعه تعریف شده است و اثر شاخص­های کمبود آب و عوامل اقلیمی، روش تأمین آب مزرعه، ویژگی­های اراضی و جمعیتی کشاورز مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. برای این منظور از طریق تکمیل پرسشنامه توسط 380 کشاورز اطلاعات مورد نیاز جمع­آوری و سپس با استفاده از روش­های لاجیت کسری، لاجیت دوگانه و OLS معادلات مدل مدیریت برآورد شده­اند. نتایج نشان داد که کمبود اقتصادی و فیزیکی منابع آب، شرایط اقلیمی دما و بارندگی و رخدادهای شدید سرمازدگی و گرمازدگی محصول و خشکسالی، تأثیر قابل توجهی بر تصمیم­های آبیاری کشاورزان دارند. کشاورزان از طریق تصمیم به آبیاری مزرعه و اتخاذ تکنولوژی­های جدید سعی می­کنند خسارت ناشی از تغییر اقلیم و کمبود آب را کاهش دهند. همچنین نوع منبع آبیاری سطحی و زیرزمینی، روش آبیاری، کیفیت و مقیاس مزرعه بر تصمیمات کشاورز تأثیر معنادار دارد. در مناطقی که آب سطحی در دسترس نیست، سطح اراضی آبی کاهش می­یابد و به دلیل کمبود آب، کشاورزان رغبت بیشتری برای سرمایه­گذاری در فناوری­های جدید دارند. مزارعی که از نظر جنس خاک مزرعه، جهت و شیب زمین زراعی و دسترسی به منابع از کیفیت بالاتری برخوردار هستند، کشاورزان تمایل بیشتری برای سرمایه­گذاری در روش­های نوین آبیاری دارند و دفعات آبیاری را در مزارع افزایش می­دهند. لذا، اعمال سیاست­هایی جهت بهبود کیفیت و یکپارچه­سازی اراضی، میزان گسترش تکنولوژی را افزایش و حجم آب مصرفی در مزرعه را کاهش می­دهد. همچنین، ویژگی­های جمعیتی کشاورز از قبیل تجربه، مالکیت، تحصیلات بر تصمیماتی که کشاورز برای آبیاری مزرعه می­گیرد تأثیرگذار هستند. ایجاد بستر تحصیل و آموزش کشاورزان، میزان آگاهی کشاورزان را نسبت به روش­های نوین کشاورزی و اهمیت منابع آب افزایش می­دهد. نتایج این تحقیق اطلاعات ارزشمندی در مورد چگونگی واکنش کشاورزان در سیستم­های تولید و انطباق با تغییرات اقلیمی و اتخاذ سیاست­های اثربخش فراهم می­کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• تصمیم‌های آبیاری
• تغییر اقلیم
• کمبود آب
• لاجیت کسری

20.1001.1.20084722.1400.35.4.5.1

موضوعات

• اقتصاد کشاورزی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Impacts of Climate Change and Water Scarcity on Farmers' Irrigation Decisions in North-Khorasan Province: Major Crops

نویسندگان [English]

• A. Azizi
• H. Mehrabi Boshrabadi
• M. Zare Mehrjerdi

Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

چکیده [English]

Abdulai, A., and W. E. Huffman. 2005. The diffusion of new agricultural technologies: the case of crossbred-cow technology in Tanzania. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87: 645-659.
Agricultural Jihad Organization of North-Khorasan Province. 2017. Soil and Water Management and Engineering Technical Affairs. (In Persian)
Alam, K. 2015. Farmers’ adaptation to water scarcity in drought-prone environments: a case study of Rajshahi District, Bangladesh. Agricultural Water Management, 148: 196-206.
Balali, H., H. Saadi, and R. Vahdat Adab. 2016. Economic and social factors affecting the adoption of pressurized irrigation technology in wheat fields of Hamadan city. Agricultural Education Management Research, 37: 85-96. (In Persian)
Behbahani Motlagh, M., M.S. Sharifzadeh, G. Abdollahzadeh, and M.R. Mahboobi. 2017. Farmers' Adoption Behavior of Pressurized Irrigation Technology in Dashtestan County. Iran Agricultural Extension and Education Journal, 13 (1): 89-103. (In Persian)
Bressers, H., N. Bressers, and S. Kuks. 2019. Strategies and instruments to face drought and water scarcity. Chapter 14 in book, Facing Hydro meteorological Extreme Events: A Governance Issue, First Edition, Edited by Jeunesse, I.L. and C. Larrue.
Burke, S.M., R.M. Adams, and W.W. Wallender. 2004. Water Banks and Environmental Water Demands: Case of the Klamath Project. Water Resources Research, 40 (W09S02): 1–9.
Calzadilla, A., K. Rehdanz, and R.S.J. Tol. 2011. Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Agricultural Economics 42: 305-323.
Caswell, M.F., and D. Zilberman. 1986. The effects of well depth and land quality on the choice of irrigation technology. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68: 798-811.
Coffel, E. D., B. Keith, C. Lesk, R.M. Horton, E. Bower, J. Lee, and J. S. Mankin. 2019. Future hot and dry years worsen Nile basin water scarcity despite projected precipitation increases. Earth’s Future, 7(8): 967-977.
Comprehensive report on agricultural water productivity. 2017. Agricultural Jihad Organization of North-Khorasan Province. (In Persian)
Cremades, R., J. Wang, and J. Morris. 2015. Policies, economic incentives and the adoption of modern irrigation technology in China. Earth System Dynamic, 6: 399-410.
Dashti, Gh., Kh. Olphi, M. Ghahremanzade. 2017. Investigating the effects of climatic variables on land allocation between groups of annual crops in the country. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(4): 297-307. (In Persian)
Dinar, A., A. Tieu, and H. Huynh. 2019. Water scarcity impacts on global food production. Global Food Security, 23: 212-226.
Etwire, P.M. 2020. The impact of climate change on farming system selection in Ghana. Agricultural System 179: 102773.
Finkel, H. J., and D. Nir. 1983. Criteria for the Choice of Irrigation Method. In Handbook of Irrigation Technology Volume II, ed. H. J. Finkel. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Frisvold, G., and T. Bai 2016. Irrigation technology choice as adaptation to climate change in the Western United States. Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 158: 62-77.
Hamdy, A., R. Ragab, and E. Scarascia-Mugnozza. 2003. Coping with water scarcity: water saving and increasing water productivity. Irrigation and Drainage, 52: 3-20.
Howitt, R., J. Medellin-Azuara, D. MacEwan, J. Lund, and D. Summer 2014. Economic analysis of the 2014 drought for California agricultural. Center for Watershed Sciences University of California, Davis UC Agricultural Issues Center ERA Economics, Davis, Calif.
Jawid, A. 2019. A ricardian analysis of the economic impact of climate change on agriculture: evidence from the farms in the Central Highlands of Afghanistan. Journal of Asian Economics, ASIECO 101177.
Karppien, H. 2005. Forest owners' choice of reforestation method: An application of the theory of planned behavior. Forest policy and Economics 7 (3): 393-409.
Khaledi, F., K. Zarafshan, A. Mirakzadeh, and l. Sharafi. 2016. Analysis of adaptability of wheat farmers in Sarpol-e-Zahab city against climate change. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Science 12 (2): 169-182. (In Persian).
Khaledi, S. 2004. Investigation of frost phenomenon and its effects in horticulture of Marand city. Journal of Applied researches in Geographical Sciences 2 (2): 29-50. (In Persian).
Li, M., Y. Xu, Q. Fu, V. P. Singh, D. Liu, and T. Li. 2020. Efficient irrigation water allocation and its impact on agricultural sustainability and water scarcity under uncertainty. Journal of Hydrology 586: 124888.
Lichtenberg, E. 1989. Land quality irrigation development, and cropping patterns in the northern high plains. American Agricultural Economics Association 71 (1): 187-194.
Liu, J., H. Yang, S. Gosling, M. Kummu, M. Flörke, S. Pfister, N. Hanasaki, Y. Wada, X. Zhang, C. Zheng, J. Alcamo, and T. Oki. 2017. Water scarcity assessments in the past, present and future. Earth’s Future 5 (6): 545-559.
McDonald, R.I., and E. H. Girvetz. 2013. Two challenges for U.S. irrigation due to climate change: increasing irrigated area in Wet States and increasing irrigation rates in dry states. PloS One, 8(6): e65589.
Mendelsohn, R., and A. Dinar. 2003. Climate, Water and Agriculture. Land Economics, 79(3): 328-341.
Movahedi, R., N. Izadi, and R. Vahdat Adab. 2017. Investigating the effective factors on the acceptance of pressurized irrigation technology among farmers in Asadabad city. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture, 31(2): 287-300. (In Persian)
Olen, B., J. Wu, and C. Langpap. 2016. Irrigation decisions for major west coast crops: water scarcity and climatic determinants. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 98(1): 254-275.
Paltasingh, K.R., and P. Goyari. 2018. Impact of farmer education on farm productivity under varying technologies: case of paddy growers in India. Agricultural and Food Economics, 6(7): 1-19.
Papke, L.E., and J.M. Wooldrige. 1996. Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401 (K) plan participation rates. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11: 619-632.
Parhizkari, A., A. Mahmoudi, and M. Shokat Fadai. 2017. Assessing the effects of climate change on available water resources and agricultural production in the Shahroud watershed. Agricultural Economics Research, 9(1): 23-50. (In Persian)
Rahmani, S., S. Yazdani, A. Mahmoudi, M. Shokat Fadai, and A. Souri. 2016. Investigating the factors affecting the acceptance and development of pressurized irrigation cultivation level using Logit model (Case study: Ardabil province). Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 6(23): 13-26. (In Persian)
Seekao, C., and C. Pharino. 2016. Key factors affecting the flood vulnerability and adaptation of the shrimp farming sector in Thailand. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 17: 161-172.
Sheidaeian, M., M. Ziatabar Ahmadi, and R. Fazlavali. 2014. The effect of climate change on irrigation net requirement and rice yield (Case study: Tajan plain). Journal of Water and Soil (Agricultural Sciences and Industries), 28(6): 1284-1297. (In Persian)
Siddig, K., D. Stepanyan, M.Wiebelt, H. Grethe, and T. Zhu. 2020. Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature. Ecological Economics, 169: 106566.
Statistical Yearbook of North-Khorasan province. 2019. Statistical Center of Iran. (In Persian)
Tavakoli, J., H. Almasi, and P. Ghoochi. 2016. Investigation and analysis of farmers' adaptation strategies to drought in Kermanshah province. Rural Research, 7(1): 217-242. (In Persian)
Velayati, S. 2006. Investigation of water crisis in Khorasan province. Modarres Human Sciences, 10(48): 213-234. (In Persian)
Wakeyo, M. B., and C. Gardebroek. 2017. Share of irrigated land and farm size in rainwater harvesting irrigation in Ethiopia. Journal of Arid Environments, 139: 85-94.
Zarifian, S., J. Rostami, and E. Pishbahar. 2020. Factors affecting the use of modern irrigation systems for Sustainable Agricultural Development (Case Study: Rural Areas of Bostan Abad City of East- Azerbayjan Province Iran). Journal of Agricultural Knowledge and Sustainable Production, 30(3): 217-229. (In Persian)
Zarski, J., R. Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, and S. Dudek. 2020. Impact of Irrigation and Fertigation on the Yield and Quality of Sugar Beet (Beta vulgaris ) in a Moderate Climate. Agronomy, 10(2): 166.
Zhang, B., Z. Fu, J. Wang, and L. Zhang. 2019. Farmers’ adoption of water-saving irrigation technology alleviates water scarcity in metropolis suburbs: A case study of Beijing, China. Agricultural Water Management, 212: 349-357.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Climate change
• Fractional logit
• Irrigation decisions
• Water scarcity

مراجع

1. Abdulai, A., and W. E. Huffman. 2005. The diffusion of new agricultural technologies: the case of crossbred-cow technology in Tanzania. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87: 645-659.
2. Agricultural Jihad Organization of North-Khorasan Province. 2017. Soil and Water Management and Engineering Technical Affairs. (In Persian)
3. Alam, K. 2015. Farmers’ adaptation to water scarcity in drought-prone environments: a case study of Rajshahi District, Bangladesh. Agricultural Water Management, 148: 196-206.
4. Balali, H., H. Saadi, and R. Vahdat Adab. 2016. Economic and social factors affecting the adoption of pressurized irrigation technology in wheat fields of Hamadan city. Agricultural Education Management Research, 37: 85-96. (In Persian)
5. Behbahani Motlagh, M., M.S. Sharifzadeh, G. Abdollahzadeh, and M.R. Mahboobi. 2017. Farmers' Adoption Behavior of Pressurized Irrigation Technology in Dashtestan County. Iran Agricultural Extension and Education Journal, 13 (1): 89-103. (In Persian)
6. Bressers, H., N. Bressers, and S. Kuks. 2019. Strategies and instruments to face drought and water scarcity. Chapter 14 in book, Facing Hydro meteorological Extreme Events: A Governance Issue, First Edition, Edited by Jeunesse, I.L. and C. Larrue.
7. Burke, S.M., R.M. Adams, and W.W. Wallender. 2004. Water Banks and Environmental Water Demands: Case of the Klamath Project. Water Resources Research, 40 (W09S02): 1–9.
8. Calzadilla, A., K. Rehdanz, and R.S.J. Tol. 2011. Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Agricultural Economics 42: 305-323.
9. Caswell, M.F., and D. Zilberman. 1986. The effects of well depth and land quality on the choice of irrigation technology. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68: 798-811.
10. Coffel, E. D., B. Keith, C. Lesk, R.M. Horton, E. Bower, J. Lee, and J. S. Mankin. 2019. Future hot and dry years worsen Nile basin water scarcity despite projected precipitation increases. Earth’s Future, 7(8): 967-977.
11. Comprehensive report on agricultural water productivity. 2017. Agricultural Jihad Organization of North-Khorasan Province. (In Persian)
12. Cremades, R., J. Wang, and J. Morris. 2015. Policies, economic incentives and the adoption of modern irrigation technology in China. Earth System Dynamic, 6: 399-410.
13. Dashti, Gh., Kh. Olphi, M. Ghahremanzade. 2017. Investigating the effects of climatic variables on land allocation between groups of annual crops in the country. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(4): 297-307. (In Persian)
14. Dinar, A., A. Tieu, and H. Huynh. 2019. Water scarcity impacts on global food production. Global Food Security, 23: 212-226.
15. Etwire, P.M. 2020. The impact of climate change on farming system selection in Ghana. Agricultural System 179: 102773.
16. Finkel, H. J., and D. Nir. 1983. Criteria for the Choice of Irrigation Method. In Handbook of Irrigation Technology Volume II, ed. H. J. Finkel. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
17. Frisvold, G., and T. Bai 2016. Irrigation technology choice as adaptation to climate change in the Western United States. Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 158: 62-77.
18. Hamdy, A., R. Ragab, and E. Scarascia-Mugnozza. 2003. Coping with water scarcity: water saving and increasing water productivity. Irrigation and Drainage, 52: 3-20.
19. Howitt, R., J. Medellin-Azuara, D. MacEwan, J. Lund, and D. Summer 2014. Economic analysis of the 2014 drought for California agricultural. Center for Watershed Sciences University of California, Davis UC Agricultural Issues Center ERA Economics, Davis, Calif.
20. Jawid, A. 2019. A ricardian analysis of the economic impact of climate change on agriculture: evidence from the farms in the Central Highlands of Afghanistan. Journal of Asian Economics, ASIECO 101177.
21. Karppien, H. 2005. Forest owners' choice of reforestation method: An application of the theory of planned behavior. Forest policy and Economics 7 (3): 393-409.
22. Khaledi, F., K. Zarafshan, A. Mirakzadeh, and l. Sharafi. 2016. Analysis of adaptability of wheat farmers in Sarpol-e-Zahab city against climate change. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Science 12 (2): 169-182. (In Persian).
23. Khaledi, S. 2004. Investigation of frost phenomenon and its effects in horticulture of Marand city. Journal of Applied researches in Geographical Sciences 2 (2): 29-50. (In Persian).
24. Li, M., Y. Xu, Q. Fu, V. P. Singh, D. Liu, and T. Li. 2020. Efficient irrigation water allocation and its impact on agricultural sustainability and water scarcity under uncertainty. Journal of Hydrology 586: 124888.
25. Lichtenberg, E. 1989. Land quality irrigation development, and cropping patterns in the northern high plains. American Agricultural Economics Association 71 (1): 187-194.
26. Liu, J., H. Yang, S. Gosling, M. Kummu, M. Flörke, S. Pfister, N. Hanasaki, Y. Wada, X. Zhang, C. Zheng, J. Alcamo, and T. Oki. 2017. Water scarcity assessments in the past, present and future. Earth’s Future 5 (6): 545-559.
27. McDonald, R.I., and E. H. Girvetz. 2013. Two challenges for U.S. irrigation due to climate change: increasing irrigated area in Wet States and increasing irrigation rates in dry states. PloS One, 8(6): e65589.
28. Mendelsohn, R., and A. Dinar. 2003. Climate, Water and Agriculture. Land Economics, 79(3): 328-341.
29. Movahedi, R., N. Izadi, and R. Vahdat Adab. 2017. Investigating the effective factors on the acceptance of pressurized irrigation technology among farmers in Asadabad city. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture, 31(2): 287-300. (In Persian)
30. Olen, B., J. Wu, and C. Langpap. 2016. Irrigation decisions for major west coast crops: water scarcity and climatic determinants. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 98(1): 254-275.
31. Paltasingh, K.R., and P. Goyari. 2018. Impact of farmer education on farm productivity under varying technologies: case of paddy growers in India. Agricultural and Food Economics, 6(7): 1-19.
32. Papke, L.E., and J.M. Wooldrige. 1996. Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401 (K) plan participation rates. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11: 619-632.
33. Parhizkari, A., A. Mahmoudi, and M. Shokat Fadai. 2017. Assessing the effects of climate change on available water resources and agricultural production in the Shahroud watershed. Agricultural Economics Research, 9(1): 23-50. (In Persian)
34. Rahmani, S., S. Yazdani, A. Mahmoudi, M. Shokat Fadai, and A. Souri. 2016. Investigating the factors affecting the acceptance and development of pressurized irrigation cultivation level using Logit model (Case study: Ardabil province). Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 6(23): 13-26. (In Persian)
35. Seekao, C., and C. Pharino. 2016. Key factors affecting the flood vulnerability and adaptation of the shrimp farming sector in Thailand. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 17: 161-172.
36. Sheidaeian, M., M. Ziatabar Ahmadi, and R. Fazlavali. 2014. The effect of climate change on irrigation net requirement and rice yield (Case study: Tajan plain). Journal of Water and Soil (Agricultural Sciences and Industries), 28(6): 1284-1297. (In Persian)
37. Siddig, K., D. Stepanyan, M.Wiebelt, H. Grethe, and T. Zhu. 2020. Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature. Ecological Economics, 169: 106566.
38. Statistical Yearbook of North-Khorasan province. 2019. Statistical Center of Iran. (In Persian)
39. Tavakoli, J., H. Almasi, and P. Ghoochi. 2016. Investigation and analysis of farmers' adaptation strategies to drought in Kermanshah province. Rural Research, 7(1): 217-242. (In Persian)
40. Velayati, S. 2006. Investigation of water crisis in Khorasan province. Modarres Human Sciences, 10(48): 213-234. (In Persian)
41. Wakeyo, M. B., and C. Gardebroek. 2017. Share of irrigated land and farm size in rainwater harvesting irrigation in Ethiopia. Journal of Arid Environments, 139: 85-94.
42. Zarifian, S., J. Rostami, and E. Pishbahar. 2020. Factors affecting the use of modern irrigation systems for Sustainable Agricultural Development (Case Study: Rural Areas of Bostan Abad City of East- Azerbayjan Province Iran). Journal of Agricultural Knowledge and Sustainable Production, 30(3): 217-229. (In Persian)
43. Zarski, J., R. Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, and S. Dudek. 2020. Impact of Irrigation and Fertigation on the Yield and Quality of Sugar Beet (Beta vulgaris ) in a Moderate Climate. Agronomy, 10(2): 166.
44. Zhang, B., Z. Fu, J. Wang, and L. Zhang. 2019. Farmers’ adoption of water-saving irrigation technology alleviates water scarcity in metropolis suburbs: A case study of Beijing, China. Agricultural Water Management, 212: 349-357.