عوامل مؤثر بر شدت انتشار آلاینده‌های تولید بخش کشاورزی

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

• فضل الله غفاریان
• زکریا فرج زاده

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead.2021.68637.1013

چکیده

منشأ اصلی انتشار آلاینده­ها در ایران حامل­های انرژی است، اما در مورد اکسیددی­نیتروژن و متان فرآیند تولید کشاورزی نقش مهمی دارد. در همین راستا، مطالعه حاضر با هدف تحلیل شدت انتشار آلاینده­های منتخب در بخش کشاورزی و ارزیابی عوامل تعیین­کننده آن صورت گرفت. برای این منظور ابتدا با استفاده از روش تحلیل تجزیه، شدت انتشار در بخش کشاورزی به اجزای آن­ تجزیه گردید. سپس با استفاده از تحلیل رگرسیون نقش عوامل تعیین­کننده در شدت انتشار ارزیابی شد. آلاینده­های منتخب در بخش کشاورزی شامل متان، اکسیددی­نیتروزن و دی­اکسیدکربن منتشرشده از فرآیند تولید و دوره مطالعه شامل 95-1352 می­باشد. یافته­ها نشان داد شدت انتشار متان و اکسیددی­نیتروژن در دوره مطالعه سالانه 9/3 و 6/2 درصد در حال کاهش بوده است. سطح تولید در زیربخش­های کشاورزی عامل مهمی در شدت انتشار است. به این ترتیب که انتظار می­رود یک درصد افزایش در سطح تولید زیربخش دام شدت انتشار متان را 9/0 درصد افزایش و شدت انتشار ­اکسیددی­نیتروژن را بیش از 3/3 درصد کاهش دهد. از سوی دیگر همین میزان افزایش در سطح تولید زیربخش زراعت و باغبانی شدت انتشار متان را 9/0 درصد کاهش و شدت انتشار ­اکسیددی­نیتروژن را بیش از 3/3 درصد افزایش خواهد داد. اثر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد ایران شامل نرخ شهرنشینی و درجه بازبودن اقتصاد بر شدت انتشار در بخش کشاورزی چندان حایز اهمیت ارزیابی نشد. به این ترتیب سیاست­های اتخاذشده برای کاهش شدت انتشار باید متمرکز بر متغیرهای بخش کشاورزی و بصورت مجزا در هر زیربخش دنبال شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• اکسیددی‌نیتروژن
• بخش‌‌کشاورزی
• شدت انتشار
• متان

20.1001.1.20084722.1400.35.4.3.9

موضوعات

• اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست

عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors Affecting Emission Intensity of Pollutants Emitted from Agricultural Production

نویسندگان [English]

• F. Ghafarian
• z. Farajzadeh

, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

چکیده [English]

Energy products are the main sources of emissions for most of the pollutants in Iran. However, for some pollutants like Methane (CH₄) and Nitrous Oxide (N₂O), the production process, including the agricultural production process, plays a significant role. The aims of this study were to analysis the emissions intensity of the selected pollutants and to introduce the determinants in Iranian agricultural sector. The emission intensity in the agricultural sector was decomposed into its components using decomposition analysis. Then, the regression analysis was applied to investigate the emission intensity determinants. The selected pollutants are Carbon Dioxide (CO₂), CH₄, and N₂O emitted from agricultural production process. The applied data cover 1973-2016. The findings showed that CH₄ emission intensity has been decreasing over the study horizon by 3.9% annually. For N₂O, the corresponding value was 2.6%. Based on the results, output level in agricultural sectors is an important driving factor in the emission intensity. It was found that 1% increase in livestock output level is expected to increase CH₄ emission intensity by 0.9% while it will dampen the N₂O emissions intensity by more than 3.3%. By contrast, the same percentage of increase in the output level of agronomy and horticultural subsector will induce an increase of 3.3% in N₂O emission intensity and will reduce the CH₄ emission intensity more than 0.9%. Macroeconomic variables including urbanization and trade openness failed to affect the agricultural emission intensity significantly. The emission intensity of all pollutants, measured in CO₂ equivalent, has been decreasing over the study period by 3.5% annually. It was also found that, in terms of aggregated emission, output expansion in livestock and forestry sectors may induce higher emission intensity, while agronomy and horticultural output expansion can reduce the emissions intensity. Given that the output level plays a significant role in emission intensity while the macroeconomic variables have nothing to do with emission intensity, the measures taken to reduce the emission intensity in the agricultural sector should be sector-specific. Moreover, the measures should focus on each subsector individually.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Agricultural sector
• Emissions intensity
• Methane
• Nitrous oxide

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