آیا واردات برنج به ایران بی رویه است؟

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• حبیب الله سلامی ¹
• مهدی باستانی ²

¹ دانشگاه تهران

² گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v31i3.66613

چکیده

استمرار واردات برنج به کشور همزمان با افزایش تولید داخلی این محصول، فرضیه بی‌رویه بودن واردات این کالا را در میان تولیدکنندگان داخلی آن شکل داده است. مطالعه حاضر در پی آن است تا این فرضیه را مورد ارزیابی قرار دهد. برای این منظور ابتدا با بهره‌گیری از رویکرد تجزیه و تحلیل اکتشافی اطلاعات (EDA) ارتباط بین واردات و تولید داخلی و همچنین سایر عواملی که از جنبه نظری می‌توانند واردات این کالا را در دوره 93-1360توضیح دهند، ارزیابی گردیده است. سپس، ارتباط بین واردات و این عوامل با استفاده از روش های اقتصادسنجی کمی شده است. نتایج حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل اکتشافی اطلاعات نشان می‌دهد تنها دو عامل درآمدهای نفتی و رشد جمعیت ارتباط قابل توجهی با واردات برنج دارند. این نتیجه در کنار این واقعیت که تجزیه و تحلیل اکتشافی اطلاعات بیانگر روند کاهشی قیمت واقعی برنج در دوره مطالعه است منجر به این نتیجه گیری می‌شود که فرضیة بی رویه بودن واردات برنج درست است. نتیجه حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل اکتشافی اطلاعات توسط روش‌های همگرایی و الگوی اقتصادسنجی ECM نیز تایید می‌شود. با توجه به این نتایج، جدا سازی میزان واردات برنج از درآمدهای نفتی و محدود کردن واردات با در نظر گرفتن کشش تقاضا برای این کالا بگونه‌ای که همواره قیمت دریافتی تولیدکنندگان از روند رشد تورم در کشور پیروی نماید پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• الگوی تصحیح خطا
• تجزیه و تحلیل اکتشافی اطلاعات
• روش همگرایی
• واردات بی رویه

20.1001.1.20084722.1396.31.3.7.3

عنوان مقاله [English]

Is Rice Import Unjustified in Iran?

نویسندگان [English]

• H. Salami ¹
• M. Bastani ²

¹ Tehran university

² Tehran

چکیده [English]

Introduction: The persistence of rice imports while domestic production shows an increase over time has resulted in forming this hypothesis among rice producers in Iran that import of the rice is unjustified. This study is seeking to evaluate this hypothesis.
Materials and Methods: The relationship between the import of rice and the quantities of domestic production as well as the other theoretically possible factors explaining import over period 1981-2014, including domestic/world market relative price, exchange rate, domestic income, population, tariff rate are investigated using exploratory data analysis (EDA) approach. In addition, the relationship between import and these factors is quantified using ECM econometric methodology. Furthermore, the VAR framework is utilized to specify causality between the above-mentioned variables and quantities of rice imported.
Results and Discussion: Results from EDA revealed that there is not a clear relationship between the quantities of domestically produced rice and the imported quantities, while such a relationship is shown between per capita crude oil revenue and the quantities of rice imported. In addition, the quantities of imported rice are not related to the domestic/world price ratio. Moreover, EDA shows a decreasing trend in real domestic price of rice. Results from EDA are supported by the co-integration and ECM methodology. The Granger causality between per capita crude oil revenue and the quantities of rice imported which was tested within VAR framework indicates that there is a one way causality from the first variable to the second one. Furthermore, the estimated ECM shows that the effect of per capita crude oil revenue on quantities of imported rice is higher in log relative to the short run. A one-dollar increase in per capita crude oil revenue results in 360 metric tons import of rice in the long run while the same one dollar increase will result in 290 metric tons import of rice in the short run. These results support the hypothesis that import of the rice is an unstructured import which may hurt domestic rice producers. Finally, calculation of the intra industry trade index indicates that intra-industry trade theory cannot explain the increasing trend of rice import in Iran.
Conclusions: Given that the per capita oil revenue is the main determinant of the rice imports, besides the fact that EDA shows a decreasing trend in real domestic price (terms of trade) of rice and reaching below one led to the conclusion that the unjustified import hypothesis is confirmed in Iran. Accordingly, a revise in rice import is suggested. Specifically, decoupling rice import from crude oil revenues and limiting import, using price elasticity information, to keep an increase in the price of this commodity equivalent to the CPI growth rate for domestic producers is suggested.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Iran
• ECM
• Unjustified Import
• EDA
• cointegration

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