نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
یکی از خصوصیات عمده بخش کشاورزی وجود ریسک به‌عنوان جزء جدایی‌ناپذیر آن است که بر تصمیمات کشاورزان در حوزه‌های مختلف ازجمله تعیین میزان تولید، به‌کارگیری نهاده‌های تولید و انتخاب فناوری اثر می‌گذارد. در این مقاله با هدف بررسی چگونگی واکنش کشاورزان در قبال ریسک ناشی از نااطمینانی تقاضا و اثرات آن بر اشتغال عوامل تولید در بخش کشاورزی، ابتدا نااطمینانی تقاضا در این بخش مبتنی بر رویکردهای مورداستفاده آیزنمن و گاسال محاسبه شد و به دنبال آن با استفاده از روش همگرایی یوهانسون و با بهره‌گیری از داده‌های سری زمانی سال‌های 1353 تا 1391 نوع رفتار ریسکی بنگاه‌ها و چگونگی اثرگذاری نااطمینانی تقاضا بر شدت سرمایه‌بری و کاربری فرآیندهای تولیدی در بخش کشاورزی مورد مطالعه و آزمون قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تخمین بردارهای همگرایی بلندمدت، استنباط می‌شود که بنگاه‌های فعال در بخش کشاورزی در قبال ریسک ناشی از نااطمینانی تقاضا واکنش منفی از خود نشان می‌دهند و به‌عبارت‌دیگر ریسک‌گریز هستند. همچنین با افزایش معیار نااطمینانی تقاضا در بخش کشاورزی، هر دو نهاده نیروی کار و سرمایه کاهش می‌یابند با این تفاوت که درصد کاهش سرمایه بیشتر از درصد کاهش نیروی کار است. دلالت ضمنی چنین نتیجه‌ای این است که با افزایش نااطمینانی تقاضا، شدت سرمایه‌بری فرایندهای تولیدی در بخش کشاورزی کاهش یافته و بنگاه‌ها به سمت استفاده از فرآیندها و تکنولوژی‌های کاربرتر تمایل پیدا می‌کنند. این امر ضرورت توجه جدی‌تر به مقوله سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی را آشکار می‌سازد و در این راستا توصیه می‌گردد که با توجه به تشدید فضای ریسکی و نااطمینانی در این بخش، دولت به‌منظور جلوگیری از کند شدن فرایند سرمایه‌گذاری، از مکانیسم‌های ترویجی و انگیزشی مناسب برای تقویت انگیزه کشاورزان برای افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری و تولید بهره گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigating the Effect of Product Demand Uncertainty Risk on Inputs Employment in Iranian Agriculture Sector
نویسنده [English]
- H. Azizmohammadlou
Imam Khomeini International University
چکیده [English]
Introduction: Risk and uncertainty are the main characteristics of agriculture sector and related activities. Risk and uncertainty can affect farmers decision making on output determination, input employment and technology selection. Analysis and understanding the behavior of farmers in risky environment leads to better prediction and evaluation of the result of policies in agriculture sector and therefore helps policymakers to select suitable policies for improving the status of inputs employment in this sector. The aim of this paper is to analyzethe reaction of farmers to the risk of demand uncertainty and its effect on inputs employment in Iran agriculture sector.
Materials and Methods: Data for variables included in the estimated econometric model in this paper- like interest rate, wage index, number of employees in the agricultural sector, output value, and capital stock weregathered from Iran central bank data center during the period 1974-2012. The augmented dickey fuller test is used to investigate the stationary of variables included in the econometric models of the study. In order to analysis the reaction of farmers to the risk of demand uncertainty and its effect on inputs employment in agriculture sector, two steps were taken as follows: at the first step, a demand prediction model is estimated using a first-order autoregressive process and demand uncertainty in agriculture sector is calculated by the residual of the estimated model. At the second step, the effect of demand uncertainty on capital and labor intensity is tested using Johnson cointegration approach. Schwarz and Quinn's criteria were used to determine the optimal lag numbersin vector autoregressive model. The number of co-integration vectors weredetermined using maximum eigenvalue and trace tests.
Results and Discussion: To analyzethe behavior of farmers in risky situations in terms of input employment, five possibilities or five scenarios were taken into account. First scenario: if the farmer is risk lover, labor is going to be a constant and capital increase. If, however, the farmer is risk-averse, labor is going to be constant and capital decreases. Second scenario: if farmer is risk lover, labor decreases and capital is going to be constant. Though in the case, that farmer is risk-averse, labor increases and capital is going to be constant. Third scenario: if the farmer is risk lover, labor decreases and capital increases. However, in the case, that farmer is risk-averse, labor increases and capital decreases. Fourth scenario: if the farmer is risk lover, the rate of increasein labor is less than the rate of increasein capital. In the case of risk adverse farmer, the rate of increasein labor is more than the rate of increasein capital. Fifth scenario: if farmer is risk lover, the rate of decreasing in labor is more than the rate of increasein capital. In the case of risk-averse farmer, the rate of decreasing in labor is less than the rate of increasein capital. Cointegrationtest based on eigenvalue and trace statistics in this paper confirm the presence of almost two cointegration vectors between the model variables. According to the estimated coefficients of the restricted vectors, there is a negative relationship between demand uncertainty and capital-labor ratioin long run. The coefficient of demand uncertainty in restricted vector is estimated around -0.33. This shows that as demand uncertainty increase 1%, capital- labor decrease 0.33%. These findings reveal that the firms in the agriculture sector are risk-averse and have a negative response todemand uncertainty. Separately estimation of labor and capital demand function indicates that the coefficient of demand uncertainty is respectively obtained around (-0. 14) and (-0.05). In the other words, the negative effect of demand uncertainty on capital formation is larger than the negative effect of demand uncertainty on labor employment. As demand uncertainty goes up in this sector, both labor force and capital decrease. The rate of decreasing in capital, however, is more than the rate of decreasing in labor force in the agricultural sector.
Conclusions: With increasing demand uncertainty in the agricultural sector, labor-intensity of production process goes up and farmers move toward using labor intensive process and technologies. It is inferred that higher level of demand uncertainty leads to debilitatinginvestment process and retard the trend of capital formation and technology development in the agricultural sector. The implication of such conclusion is that as demand uncertainty increases, capital intensity decreases in agriculture sector and production firms tend to use more labor-intensive technologies and process. This reveals the necessity of serious attention to investment and capital formation issue in this sector. Regarding the intensifying the risky environment in this sector, the government is recommended to use suitable promotion and motivation mechanisms to enhance farmers intensively for investment and output improvement.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Uncertainty
- Risk Aversion
- Capital Intensity
- Labor Intensity
- Agriculture sector
- Iran
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