Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1 Payame Noor University, Tehran
2 Zabol Branch, Islamic Azad University
3 Sari
Abstract
Introduction: The first step in any planning is recognition of the actual condition and the main tool to know the present situation and move towards to the ideal conditions is the access to data and information. This study, tried to study fish consumption status and identify the factors affecting it in Sari and Mashhad Cities.
Materials and Methods: Data was collected through interviews and questionnaire and were analyzed using ordered Logit model. Often dependent variables are ordinal, but are not continuous in the sense that the metric used to code the variables is substantively meaningful. A widely used approach to estimating models of this type is an ordered response model, which almost allows employing the Logistic link function. This model is thus often referred to as the "ordered Logit" model. The central idea is that there is a latent continuous metric underlying the ordinal responses observed by the analyst. Thresholds divides the real line into a series of regions corresponding to the various ordinal categories. The latent continuous variable, y* is a linear combination of some predictors, x, plus a disturbance term that has a standard Logistic distribution. Similar to the models for binary data, we are concerned with how changes in the predictors translate into the probability of observing a particular ordinal outcome. In this model, the dependent variable is divided to different classes. Coefficients cannot be interpreted directly; so for evaluating the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable, marginal effect or marginal probability is calculated. independent variables are: Family size, Age, Price of fish, Price of meat, Price of chicken, Education, The number of people under 10 years, The number of people with specific diseases, The number of elderly, Income level, Job, Factor related to taste, Factors related to the access and ease of preparation of fish, Factors related to preparation and cook and Factors related to aquatic health.
Results and Discussion: Households, based on the frequency of buying aquatic (fish, shrimp and canned), are divided into four groups: households with no annual, monthly and weekly consumption of aquatic. So we ran order Logit model for these groups. Pseudo R2 Shows that the order Logit model has a high level of goodness of fit, and the independent variables used in the models explain 12% and 14% variations in the probability of Mashhadian and Saravian households at different levels of consumption. The value of the χ2 statistic in Wald test also indicates the significance of the whole regression. The estimated results of ordered Logit model showed that variables of the number of children under 10 years, the number of people with specific diseases, the number of elderly and income level have the positive impact on fish consumption in Sari. Variables of residential area and the number of children under 10 years have a positive impact on fish consumption in Mashhad. In other words, increasing these variables, increases the probability of fish consumption in these cities. Age has the negative impact on fish consumption in Sari. Also, factors associated with taste, factors related to lack of knowledge of preparation and cooking aquatic and factors related to the health of aquatics have a negative impact on fish consumption in Mashhad. This means that increasing these variables, puts households at lower levels of fish consumption. In such a way, the habitat of coastal towns towards non-coastal cities, reduces the probability of households to be in the low-level of aquatic consumption. This is due to the lower price of fish in coastal cities and access to fresh fish in these cities. The likelihood of Mashhadian households in the low-levels (no use) of aquatic consumption was reduced by 0.308 and increases the probability of households in annual, monthly and weekly of aquatic consumption, with increase in the residential area level by 0.091, 0.192 and 0.025 respectively. The likelihood of Sarian households in high- level of aquatic consumption (weekly and monthly) was increase by 0.120 and 0.395, with increase in the number of people with specific diseases, respectively. Increasing the income level of households also reduces the probability of Sarian households in the low-level (no use) of aquatic consumption group by about 0.0000006.
Conclusions: This study aimed to identify the factors affecting fish consumption in Sari and Mashhad Cities. For this purpose, data was collected through interviews and questionnaire and were analyzed using ordered Logit model. The estimated results of ordered Logit model showed that variables of the number of children under 10 years, the number of people with specific diseases, the number of elderly and income level have a positive impact on fish consumption in Sari. However, variables of residential area and the number of children under 10 years have a positive impact on fish consumption in Mashhad. In other words, increasing these variables, increases the probability of fish consumption in these cities. But factors associated with taste, factors related to lack of knowledge of preparation and cooking aquatic and factors related to the health of aquatics have the negative impact on fish consumption in Mashhad. Based on the results, holding the training classes of fish cooking for enthusiasts and creation of aquatics Markets to supply of aquatic have been proposed.
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