Production and Trade Situation in Iran and USA and Impact of Exchange rate Volatility on the Exports

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• M. Salarpour ¹
• S. Mojarad ²
• M. Sabouhi ³

¹ Assistant Professor and Faculty Member of the Department of Agricultural Economics, Zabol University, Zabol, Iran

² Zabol University

³ Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v0i0.29514

Abstract

In the present study, pistachio production and trade and influential factors on its exports in Iran and the USA are compared the the .Using the annual data from 1970 to 2011; this study aimed to analyze the effects of pistachio price and the effects of food security. Moreover, the relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export in the Iranian economy was analyzed through examining a non linear relation between the two factors. Therefore, the hypothesis validation upon nonlinearity relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export was analyzed using smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR). The results of smooth transition model (STAR) show that there is a nonlinear Granger causality between exchange rate and pistachio export and vice versa. It is therefore recommended ,in order to determine the threshold level of potential benefits of pistachio exports, the existence of the nonlinear relationship between the dynamic exchange rate and pistachio exports should be considered. Furthermore, in order to maintain market share in the international level, understanding target markets of export and achieving complete information upon the position of the major competitors in the production and trade of Pistachio is essential.

Keywords

• Production
• Pistachio trade
• Exchange rates
• Nonlinearity smooth transition model
• Granger causality

References

1- زارع مهرجردی م.، و توحیدی ا. 1392. رابطه انتقالی نرخ ارز در بازارهای صادراتی پسته ایران: رویکرد داده های تابلویی. تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی 5(2): 165- 185.

2- سازمان توسعه تجارت ایران.1386. خلاصه مدیریتی سند راهبردی توسعه صادرات غیر نفتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران. دفتر برنامه ریزی تجاری.

3- کوچک زاده ا.، و جلایی اسفندآبادی س.ع. 1392. تاثیر نااطمینانی نرخ ارز بر صادرات غیرنفتی ایران. تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی 5 (3): 121- 135.

4- مولایی م.، و دهقانی ع. 1390. ارزیابی تاثیر هزینه های تحقیق و توسعه بر سهم بازار در بخش صنعت ایران (رویکرد غیر خطی LSTAR). پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی 1(4):55-73.

5- مهر آرا م.، و سرخوش ا. 1389. آثار غیر خطی متغیر های کلان اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی با تاکید بر نرخ ارز (مورد ایران). مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی 93: 201-228.

6- Caner M., and Hansen B.E. 2001. Threshold auto regressions with a unit root. Econometrica, 69: 1555-1597.

7- Chen J., and Zhang Y. 2012. A Study of the Nonlinear Relation between Exchange Rate and Fiscal Revenue in China. Procedia Engineering, 29: 2672-2676.

8- Dauvin M. 2014. Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. International Economics, 137: 52-72.

9- Granger C.W.J., and Terasvirta T. 1993. Modeling Non-Linear Economic Relationships. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

10- Shintani M., Terada-Hagiwara A., and Yabu T. 2013. Exchange rate pass-through and inflation: A nonlinear time series analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32: 512-527.

11- Terasvirta T. 1994. Specification, estimation and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89: 208–218.

12- Terasvirta T. 1998. Modeling economic relationships with smooth transition regressions. In: Ullah, A., David, E. (Eds.), Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics. Marcel Dekker, NY, 507–552.

13- Terasvirta T., Dijk D., and Medeiros M.C. 2005. Linear models, smooth transition auto regressions and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination. International Journal of Forecasting, 21: 755– 774.

14- www.FAO.org/corp/statistics/

15- www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/FruitAndTreeNuts/

16- www.acpistachios.org/statistics.shtml