ارزیابی خسارت های اقتصادی انتقال آب بین حوضه ای بر الگوی کشت و وضعیت درآمدی کشاورزان در حوضه مبدأ (مطالعه موردی: انتقال آب الموت رود به دشت قزوین)

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ابوذر پرهیزکاری ¹
• حسین تقی زاده رنجبری ¹
• محسن شوکت فدایی ²
• ابوالفضل محمودی ²

¹ دانشگاه پیام نور تهران

² دانشگاه تهران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v0i0.48794

چکیده

طرح انتقال آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود که به منظور تأمین منابع آب کشاورزی دشت قزوین (حوضه مقصد) در مرحله برنامه ریزی و اجرا است، می‌تواند پیامدهای اقتصادی متعددی را در منطقه الموت (حوضه مبدأ) به دنبال داشته باشد. به همین منظور، در این تحقیق اثرات انتقال آب بین حوضه ای فوق بر کاربری اراضی (الگوی کشت)، وضعیت درآمدی کشاورزان (سود ناخالص حاصل از الگوی کشت) و ارزش اقتصادی آب در حوضه مبدأ تحلیل و ارزیابی شد. برای تحقق این هدف، از یک سیستم مدل‌سازی مشتمل بر مدل برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP) و رهیافت تابع تولید با کشش جانشینی ثابت (CES) استفاده شد. داده های موردنیاز مربوط به سال زراعی 93-1392 است که از طریق مراجعه به ادارات ذیربط در استان قزوین جمع آوری شدند. نتایج نشان داد که انتقال بین حوضه ای آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود به دشت قزوین با ایجاد محدودیت 10 تا 40 درصد در عرضه آب آبیاری منجر به کاهش 71/1 تا 52/5 و 17/2 تا 32/6 درصد الگوی کشت، کاهش 58/2 تا 21/8 و 18/3 تا 82/9 درصد سود ناخالص کشاورزان و افزایش 23/3 تا 1/31 و 09/4 تا 0/14درصد ارزش اقتصادی آب آبیاری در مناطق الموت شرقی و غربی می‌شود. در پایان با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، اجرای طرح انتقال بین حوضه ای آب از سرشاخه های الموت رود به دشت قزوین با در نظرگرفتن ملاحظات اقتصادی در حوضه مبدأ توصیه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• انتقال آب بین حوضه ای
• اثرات اقتصادی
• الگوی کشت
• بازده ناخالص کشاورزان
• سرشاخه های الموت رود

20.1001.1.20084722.1394.29.3.9.1

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment the Economic Damage of Inter-Basin Water Transfer on Cropping Pattern and Farmers’ Income Situation in the Origin Basin (Case Study: Water Transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin Plain)

نویسندگان [English]

• A. Parhizkari ¹
• H. Taghizade Ranjbari ¹
• M. Shokatfadaee ²
• A. Mahmoodi ²

¹ University of PNU Tehran

² Tehran University

چکیده [English]

Introduction: Sustainable management of water resources is one of the most important disturbances of current century and many scientists and investigators have already started to pay attention to it from last decade and early 21st century. Iran is in the semi-arid region and thus disproportionate distribution of water resources, so atmospheric precipitation and soil in the country, along with factors such as climate change, drought, environmental protection, ecological special situation, maintain the current pattern of population distribution provides various challenges. Industry and agriculture sectors create a regional balance tailored to the development needs on the one hand and focusing on distribution balanced and optimal management of water resources on the other hand. Transfer of water between river basins (watersheds, catchments), which is basically a hydrological category, different from the notion of transferring water over political boundaries, usually called transboundary water transfer. Interbasin water transfer usually implies large hydraulic engineering structures, conduits, canals, dams, pumping stations, and consequently shares the mistrust which meets large scale infrastructural solutions in water management, often criticized and opposed with the argument that one should first try to reduce water wastage, before embarking into costly investments. Inter-basin water transfer in fact is physical transfer of water from one basin to another basin. This transfer (Inter-basin water transfer) despite the elimination of shortcomings in the transmission destination areas, can the source of many changes in the cropping pattern, and farmers gross profit. Natural environment, migration, reduction of dependency to agriculture, small industries in the origin basins all requires assessments before the implementation of the water transfer projects. In Iran also water transfer from regions with high rainfall to arid regions has been performed by building the dam, canals, streams and aqueducts. Even today, many projects are implemented in Iran that water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain is one of the most important of these projects. According to reports of Regional Water Company of Qazvin province and the specifications of inter-basin water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain will be out from the farmers availability of Alamut region about 370 million cubic meters of irrigation water. This issue has the huge impacts on cropping pattern and farmers economic and livelihood condition in the origin basin (Alamout region). Therefore, in this study a hydrological-economic modeling system to analysis the effects of water transfer project of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain on cropping pattern, farmers gross profit and economic value of irrigation water in the Alamut region (origin basin) was used.
Materials and Methods: Nowadays different methods to analysis of the issues related to the management of water resources and agriculture are used. One of the most important of these methods is mathematical programming that in recent years are in use to solve problems of water resource management sector and analysis of the agricultural policies. In this study a hydrological-economic modeling system consists of the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) and product function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) to analysis of the effects of inter-basin water transfer on land use, farmers income situation and economic value of irrigation water in the origin basin (Alamout region) was used. The first time PMP model developed by Howitt (1995) to calibrate agricultural supply models have been used to link biophysical and economic information in an integrated biophysical and economic modelling framework and to assess impacts of agricultural policies and scenarios. These models are also accepted for analysing the impact of water resources management policies and scenarios. PMP model used in this paper is a three-step procedure which in it a non-linear (Quadratic) cost function is calibrated to observed values of inputs applied in agricultural production. In the basic formulation, the first step is a linear program providing marginal values that are used in the second step to estimate the parameters for a non-linear cost function and a production function. In the third step, the calibrated production and cost functions are used in a non-linear optimisation program. The solution to this non-linear program calibrates to observed values of production inputs and output. The required data in this study are related to the cropping year of 2013-2014 of Qazvin province.
Results and Discussion: The obtained results in this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain resulted in using 10 to 40 percent the supply of irrigation water leads to reduction of cropping pattern from 1/71 to 5/52 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 2/17 to 6/32 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. The above restriction after inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain leads to reduction of farmers gross profit from 2/58 to 8/21 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 3/18 to 9/82 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. In addition, the results of this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain affects the economic value of each cubic meter of irrigation water in the origin basin (Alamout region) and leads to increase it from 3/23 to 31/1 percent in Eastern Alamut Rodbar and from 4/09 to 14/0 percent in Western Alamut Rodbar. Moreover, the results of this study showed that farmers irrigation water demand function in Alamout region changes after inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain and farmers are compelled to buy every cubic meter of irrigation water at higher price compared to the current situation (before inter-basin transfer of water). Increasing of the rural people emigration, urbanization development, reducing tourism and disturbance in the ecosystem origin basin are the potential consequences of inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain.
Conclusion: Implementation of Inter-basin water transfer projects is responsive to resolve the water shortage problems in destination basins in short-time periods and the situation in the long time will be repeated as before. Therefore, it is recommended that instead of inter-basin water transfer project from Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain (despite the high cost for implementation of project and creating the detrimental problems in the origin basin) other appropriate methods in the field of water resources management (such as equipping of lands to modern irrigation systems, use of deficit irrigation techniques, modification of cropping pattern by products with low water requirement, increase the irrigation efficiency by repairing and equipping of water transfer channels) to solve the problem of water shortage in the destination basin (Qazvin plain) to be used. The results of this study showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain leads to reduction of cropping pattern and farmers’ gross profit. Therefore implementation of this project by considering of economic, social and environmental considerations in the origin basin (Alamout region) was recommended.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Branches of Alamoutrood, Cropping pattern, Economic effects
• Farmers’ gross margin
• inter-basin water transfer

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