Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development

Abstract
Burundi, like other countries, invests in agricultural research and development. The adoption of the most productive varieties is one of the ways of increasing agricultural yields. Rice, because of its high productivity, is among the cereals which occupy an important place in the food security strategy in Burundi. This study aims to identify the effect of the adoption of this variety on the productivity of rice farmers. Using random sampling technique was used to select the respondents to fill the questionnaires, data were collected from 524 rice farmers spread across the five villages, namely Buringa, Murira, Nyeshanga, Ninga and Bwiza of the Gihanga commune in Bubanza, Burundi. The analysis of the determinants and the quasi-experimental method based on propensity score matching was used in the estimation of the results of the effect of adoption of the rutete variety on the productivity of rice farmers and estimate the results. The study found that the average rice yields for adopted and non-adopted farmers were respectively 9754 and 9912 kg/ha. Also, if non-adopting farmers decide to adopt the variety, their counterfactual rice yield would be 7931 kg/ha for adopters and for non-adopters reached 7927 kg/ha. The average effect of the treatment on the rice yield of the adopters was 1823 kg/ha and significant (p<0.01). The decision to adopt for non-adopting rice farmers could increase the average yield by 1984 kg/ha. The results imply the positive role of the adoption of the rutete rice variety on the performance of rice farmers in Gihanga. It is recommended that the government and research institutions involved in the agricultural sustainable development support rice farmers by increasing agricultural research innovation with the aim of increasing the yield of crops.

Abstract
In recent decades, the significance of the issue of climate change has escalated due to its intensified impacts, potentially diminishing or halting economic growth, particularly in developing countries and vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. Climate change may be considered the most important and complex human challenge. Among the economic effects, trade variables have been examined inadequately. Accordingly, the focus of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the export and import of agricultural products in Iran over a forty-year horizon, which was carried out using a dynamic input-output model. This study uses scenarios of temperature anomaly to examine the impact of climate change on different sectors of Iran’s economy. The findings indicate that climate change has a significant impact on the growth of both exports and imports of agricultural products. Under normal conditions without climate change, the average annual growth rate of agricultural product imports is 2.7 percent. However, this rate decreases to 1-1.8 percent when different climate change scenarios are taken into account. Regarding the exports, the corresponding value is 2.75 percent, expected to be reduced to 0.55-1.8 percent.  In addition, it was found that agricultural trade will be dominated by cereals import. Also, the total trade of the Iranian economy will change in favor of non-agricultural commodities.

Abstract
Food production in controlled cultivation areas plays a crucial role in increasing productivity and offsetting supply shortages. Product yields, water consumption, and energy use are the main parameters determining the performance of food production in a greenhouse. Smart technology is an effective solution to improve these parameters. This study aimed to identify the components, challenges, and requirements for the development of smart agriculture in greenhouses. Our case study focused on Tehran province, which encompasses a significant portion of the total greenhouses in Iran. The statistical population consisted of 20 subject-matter experts with research or executive experience in greenhouse automation, selected purposefully. Questionnaires and semi-structured interviews were used in this study to collect data. First, we identified the variables affecting the development of smart agriculture in greenhouses by using a literature review and semi-structured interviews with experts, Then, the experts were asked to evaluate the cross-influence of the identified variables through pairwise comparison. Finally, data analysis was done using MICMAC software. The findings indicate that the identified requirements and challenges have had a significant influence on the lack of smart agriculture in greenhouses. Through network analysis of influence and dependence relationships, it was found that economic requirements and challenges, technical and infrastructural requirements and challenges, legal and regulatory requirements, and institutional requirements were the most influential variables in the development of smart agriculture in Tehran province.

Abstract
Every year, approximately one-third of the total food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted due to various reasons. This level of wastage has substantial adverse impacts on the environment, economy, and society. Numerous studies have proposed various policies to address the issue of food waste, such as incorporating technology into existing supply chains. However, concerns about their effectiveness and unintended consequences have led researchers to emphasize market-based approaches for waste reduction. The present study was carried out to estimate waste and investigate the potential for developing different marketing channels as market-based approaches to reduce waste in the leafy vegetable supply chain in Kermanshah province. To achieve this purpose, a system dynamics modelling of the waste system in the leafy vegetable supply chain was developed by using the literature review and interviews with experts and stakeholders. The tool for collecting research data was a questionnaire. The statistical population of this study is two groups including 22 experts and 728 actors in the leafy vegetable supply chain. Based on the findings, around 31,000 tonnes (39%) of leafy vegetables are wasted annually across the supply chain. The research scenarios indicate that the establishment of processing industries will effectively decrease the overall waste of leafy vegetables from around 31,000 tons to approximately 20,000 tons annually. Therefore, government initiatives and policies in the field of leafy vegetable exchange in the study area must focus on supporting businesses associated with leafy vegetable processing industries and establishing infrastructure prerequisites for these industries.

Abstract
The increasing concern of consumers about the quality and safety of agricultural products all over the world has caused organic products to become one of the most popular options for healthy. The increasing trend and consumption of organic agricultural products has led to the increasing growth of the market of these products in the last two decades. Due to the importance of entering and gaining a share of this growing market, this study investigates the factors affecting the international organic products market entry and determines the appropriate strategy for entering it using structural equation modeling. The data of this study was obtained by collecting 90 questionnaires from producers of organic saffron, pistachio, and raisin products in the year 2021 with available sampling method in Khorasan Razavi province. The obtained results indicate that the variables of risk and motivation to enter the international market directly and the production and marketing ownership indirectly and through influencing the motivation to enter the international market, influence the international market entry strategy. Based on this, the appropriate strategy for entering the international market of organic products, indirect, cooperative and non-attendance strategies such as indirect export, contract production and joint investment was obtained. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should remove or reduce the risks caused by sanctions and obstacles to enter the market for the direct presence of organic product producers in international markets.

Abstract
This study examined the correlation between economic growth and the impact on the environment, specifically focusing on the concept of environmental sustainability. The World Bank's Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) data is utilized in this study to gauge the strain on the environment, specifically through the measurement of natural disinvestment. This measurement encompasses the cumulative effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) damage, as well as depletions in minerals, energy, and forest resources. This study uses panel data with respect to the endogeneity of explanatory variables to estimate the real effect of per capita income and the other variables on environmental pressure. In this regard, employing the panel Fixed-Effects Instrumental Variable (IV) methodology, the data from 213 countries have been used in the period from 1990 to 2018. Through regression analysis, it has been discovered that there is a direct correlation between income and the impact on the environment in developing nations. However, this relationship is notably more pronounced in low-income countries compared to high-income countries. Additionally, the study reveals that trade expansion contributes to an increase in environmental pressure across all groups of countries. An increase in the school enrolment rate can affect the environment in developed and high-income developing countries. Moreover, the variable effect of capital openness on environmental pressure was estimated to be positive for developed and high-income countries. However, this effect was found to be negative for low-income countries. Finally, the result showed that developing countries should improve their legal structure and also reduce the bureaucracy and complexity of the laws.

Abstract
Using appropriate policies to overcome food insecurity is one of the pillars of economic prosperity of countries. Economic decisions that change macroeconomic parameters can directly or indirectly affect food production and prices and affect food security. Therefore, achieving a clear understanding of how macroeconomic policies affect different dimensions of food security in the country can lead to providing solutions to improve the food security index. In this study, a framework of simultaneous equations is presented in order to investigate the relationship between monetary and financial policies with food production and prices in the country. In this regard, using the method of generalized moments, behavioral equations were estimated separately using the data of 1978-2018. The model was then implemented as a system of equations using the Gauss Seidel method. Different scenarios were simulated in this model to investigate the effects of changes in interest rates, money volume, and general government investment on various aspects of food security. The results indicated that government investment in the agriculture sector and public investment expenditures have a positive impact on food production through capital stock. Additionally, changes in interest rates have minimal effects on food production but significant negative effects on food prices. Overall, monetary policy decisions result in increased food prices alongside decreased food production due to the demand for money and private investment. Therefore, the implementation of these policies should be done more carefully in order to encourage farmers to increase production and therefore ensure food security for consumers.

Introduction
In order to meet the increasing demands of the growing population, it is essential to boost rice production. This not only ensures food security but also helps maintain environmental well-being. To achieve these goals, it is crucial for crop management research to focus on increasing rice yields while minimizing water usage. In Iran, particularly in the Rudbar region, recognizing the significance of rice cultivation in agriculture is of utmost importance. To improve rice field management, various aspects such as water and soil resource management, pest and disease control, nutrition management, sales and marketing strategies, human resources and social capital management, as well as technical and agricultural improvements need to be addressed. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to identify more effective methods for managing the rice fields in Rudbar county, Iran. Materials and Methos Initially, the researchers conducted a comprehensive analysis of available national and international databases to gather background information for the study. This analysis aimed to establish an initial list of components that could contribute to improving the management of rice fields. The statistical population of the study consisted of all 850 rice farmers in Rudbar City. Using the Karjesi-Morgan table, a statistical sample size of 265 participants was estimated, which corresponded to the size of the population. Eventually, 252 questionnaires were collected after distributing them to the participants, resulting in an 88% response rate. The opinions of faculty members from Tehran University's Department of Agricultural Management and Development were sought to assess the content validity of the questionnaire which was finally confirmed. To assess the reliability or internal consistency of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha coefficient was calculated for each of its components. All coefficients were found to be above 0.7, indicating good reliability of the study tool. The data obtained from the questionnaires was subjected to statistical analysis using the LISREL 8.8 software. A confirmatory factor analysis model was applied to examine the data. The reliability of the indicators loaded on each structure was evaluated using the t statistic. Indicators with values exceeding the critical limit of 1.96 were considered to have the required precision for measuring the relevant structure. Additionally, significant factor loadings were determined by extracting values greater than 0.5 from the factor loadings. It is important to note that Cronbach's alpha (with values higher than 0.7) was utilized to assess the reliability of the constructs.

Results and Discussion
The research findings highlighted several significant factors that have a substantial impact on improving the management of rice farms. These factors encompassed various aspects, including water and soil management, human resources and social capital, nutrition management, pest, disease, and weed management, technical and agricultural management, as well as sales and marketing management. Regarding water and soil management, the study emphasized the importance of optimal application of water resources, consideration of water quality, sediment control, and prevention of toxins and sewage from entering rice fields. Given the submerged nature of some rice stalks and the perpetually swampy conditions of rice fields, it is crucial to ensure the quality of incoming water and prevent the presence of mud and sediments. In terms of nutrition management, the research findings stressed the significance of using fertilizers effectively to enhance rice productivity. This involved post-planting strengthening, adherence to appropriate fertilizer consumption guidelines, and the utilization of plant and animal residues. Nutrition management, along with pest and disease control, played a vital role in successful rice field management. Another factor contributing to effective rice field management was the control of pests, diseases, and weeds. The study highlighted the benefits of employing an integrated approach to manage rice plant diseases and pests, which yielded better outcomes. The research findings also emphasized the role of technical and agricultural management in enhancing rice field operations. This included the use of transplanting machinery and improved seeds, mechanization of cultivation activities, and the application of fertilizer spraying machinery. These measures underscored the need for innovation in rice fields, emphasizing the importance of mechanization and the utilization of modern agricultural instruments. It was recommended that rice producers embrace technological advancements to optimize their technical and agricultural practices. Furthermore, the management of human resources and social capital played a significant role in rice field management. This encompassed fostering the growth of social capital, enhancing knowledge and skills, and utilizing mass media for skill and career development. The findings suggested that increasing cooperation, trust, and organization among rice farmers could be a strategy to revive social capital and enhance management practices. Lastly, the study highlighted important features of rice sales and marketing, such as employing an appropriate distribution system, excluding profit-seekers from the marketing cycle, and establishing regular customer relationships. Overall, the research findings emphasized the importance of addressing various factors, including water and soil management, nutrition management, pest and disease control, technical and agricultural management, human resources and social capital, as well as sales and marketing management, in order to effectively manage rice fields. Implementing these strategies would contribute to improved productivity and sustainable management practices in rice cultivation.

Conclusion
The findings of the study indicated the significance of several measures to improve the management of rice fields. These measures included the utilization of additional fertilizers and adherence to fertilizer usage guidelines, as well as the adoption of mechanized planting and harvesting equipment. It was also recommended to provide skill training programs for rice farmers and introduce online marketing platforms to facilitate the sale of rice. Furthermore, the study highlighted the importance of establishing specialized communication channels and implementing a contract system for rice production and sales through dedicated local organizations. This approach would ensure efficient coordination and enhance the management of rice fields. Additionally, private businesses were recognized for introducing new technologies, while the government played a crucial role in providing the necessary infrastructure and platforms to support rice field management. Improving the skills of rice farmers, especially in terms of market innovations, was identified as a key factor in enhancing the management of rice fields. This aspect should be considered alongside institutional and policy-making advancements to ensure comprehensive improvements in rice field management.

Introduction
Grape (Vitis vinifera L.) is one of the most important agricultural products in the Mediterranean. Today, grapes are grown in a large area of the world's gardens. The world production of grapes was about 77.8 million tons in 2018, of which 1.3 million tons were converted into raisins. According to the latest data of FAO, Iran has an annual production of 24.45 million tons of grapes in an area of 213 thousand hectares, accounting for 3% of the world's grape production. The average yield per hectare of vineyard is reported to be 15.5 tons. The purpose of this study is to determine hot spots in terms of energy and cost in the production of Malayer grapes with the approach of material and energy flow costing (MEFCA). The primary focus of material and energy flow cost accounting is on waste (waste of energy, materials and potential human capacity).

Materials and Methods
Material flow cost accounting was introduced in the late 1990s in Augsburg, Germany as a tool for green productivity management. This is known as a tool to increase productivity by reducing the use of materials, energy and human resources. Unlike life cycle assessment, which only weighs the environmental impacts of production and does not provide a solution for simultaneously reducing environmental impacts and increasing economic profit, material flow costing is recognized as an efficient tool for managing resources, wastes, and environmental impacts, and has covered the shortcomings of life cycle assessment. Material flow cost accounting helps to discover hidden costs and waste by objectifying the flow of materials in the production process. Based on ISO 14051 material flow analysis occurs in quantitative centers (QCs). In general, each quantitative center divides the production process into several parts. The basis of material flow and energy costing is material flow balance. This means that the inputs must be the same as the outputs. Based on this balance, positive inputs (i.e. consumable inputs) and positive outputs (i.e. product performance) and negative outputs (i.e. wastes and emissions during production) should be equal. The primary focus of material and energy flow costing is on waste (e.g. waste of energy, materials and potential human capacity). Allocation of costs to positive and negative products in each quantitative center is done in the following way:
- Material cost (including raw and industrial materials used in the production process)
- Energy costs (including electricity or buying diesel fuel)
- System costs (including labor costs, transportation costs and system maintenance)
- Waste cost (including waste management costs)
The system boundary included the background processes that the farmer was directly involved in using and managing. Grape data was collected in the crop year of 2020-2021 from Malayer vineyards.

Results and Discussion
Based on the results of the study, the average energy input including renewable, non-renewable, direct and indirect energy for grape production was 42234 MJ ha-1. The negative energy resulting from the wastage of chemical fertilizers, grapes, irrigation water and pesticides was 28650 MJ ha-1. The total positive output energy was calculated as 296180 MJ ha-1. Nitrogen fertilizer with 27% and animal manure with 19% had the largest share in input energy for grape production. In terms of negative energy, grape waste accounted for the largest share with 82% and the Irrigation water wastage was the next with 16%. Energy indices including energy efficiency (6.33), energy productivity (0.59) kgMJ-1), energy intensity (1.68 MJkg-1) and net energy gain (1225295 MJha-1) were calculated for grape production. The cost of grape production per hectare was $2,779. The highest input costs were related to labor and irrigation water, which cost the farmer 1644 and 680 dollars per hectare, respectively. The calculated negative production in grape production was equal to 2560 dollars per hectare. The main negative production in grape was related to wastage of grapes and irrigation water, which brought hidden costs of 2108 and 442 dollars to the farmer, respectively. The economic indicators of gross income (13954 $ha-1) and cost-benefit ratio (4.5) were calculated.

Conclusion
Transitioning from flood irrigation to drip irrigation is anticipated to enhance irrigation efficiency by 50%, resulting in an incremental addition of $221 to the farmer's income while concurrently reducing labor costs. Additionally, emphasizing training for workers can prove pivotal in minimizing grape yield wastage within the region.

Introduction
The market and the conditions governing it, especially the food industry, are always important issues for policymakers, decision makers and planners in the public and private sectors. Because market conditions are important in terms of the level of competition or monopoly on access to goods from the point of view of government decision-makers and the price from the point of view of production and private sector suppliers. In addition, both access and price factors greatly impact the amount of consumption and, consequently, the level of consumer’s welfare. Dairy products, especially milk and cheese, from the consumer's point of view, in addition to being good for health, from the point of view of agricultural producers, it is a strategic product, and from the point of view of government decision-makers, it is a factor in changing the level of social welfare. Of course, the market behavior has an important effect on the price and the motivation to produce and finally consume milk and cheese. However, factors such as encouraging consumption through public advertising can have a great effect on consumption motivation (Shahbazi, 2015). But the lack of competitive conditions in the production of products can reduce the consumption of milk and cheese and, as a result, create lost welfare for consumers and society. In other words, having a large share of the milk market by a small number of companies and production companies has made the market of dairy products a monopoly market and the existence of a monopoly in the market is considered one of the most important factors that cause lost welfare for consumers. (Gisser, 1982; Shahbazi, et al., 2009).

Materials and Methods
In this research, an attempt has been made to provide a structural framework for examining the performance of the dairy industry, especially milk and cheese (in terms of measuring the level of competition or monopoly). Based on the theory of NEIO, it is possible to quantify firms' market behavior in the absence of marginal cost data. The choice of demand model is of key importance in this type of analysis, since modeling a firm’s market behavior relies on correct representation of consumer preferences (Hovhannisyan & Bozic, 2013). In explaining consumer behavior, the functions selected for demand should be compatible with consumer theory, satisfy its theoretical characteristics, be easy to estimate, and have high predictive power. If, as the research shows, there is a non-linear relationship between demand and income, using a linear expenditure model will lead to an error and provide incorrect parameters. Recently, discrete choice demand models, such as the Logit specification, have increased in popularity in applied industrial organization research (Werden & Froeb, 1994). The random coefficient logit demand model is of particular interest, which allows for product differentiation and consumer heterogeneity. Finally, in this study, like some leading studies in the field of estimating the demand function of goods such as Hovhannisyan and Bozic (2013), uses an inverse demand system to create a structural framework of market behavior. In this approach, prices are endogenous. To model the inverse demand function and supply function, Leunberger's profit function approach (Luenberger, 1992) is used. Also, using the CV approach based on the study of Hovhannisyan & Bozic (2013), the amount of markup due to the existence of market power at the retail level is estimated for the years 2015-2021 in 7 selected provinces.
Results and Discussion
The choice of demand specification may significantly affect the estimation of structural coefficients. Therefore, several demand determination tests are performed using the Bewley likelihood ratio test (Bewley, 1986). The results show that there are quadratic utility effects in inverse demand functions. By using this feature, it is shown that the regional heterogeneity, i.e., δ_jz=0, is the same as the lagged quantity, i.e., θ_mz=0, the lagged price, i.e., θ_m=0 and non-linear time effects, i.e., σ_tt=0, are significant effects regarding the demand for milk and cheese. But seasonality, i.e., ρ_js=0, has a negligible effect on the market for milk and cheese. The final demand relationship is estimated based on the results of the tests of various constraints on the model. The estimation of the complete model is done using the FIML method. Based on Hovhannisyan and Gould (2012), the constraint τ_j∈[0,1]is applied. The estimation results indicate the presence of nonlinearity effects (effects) in utility function. Also, regional heterogeneity (δ_jz), and the lagged quantity (θ_mz), lagged price (θ_m) and nonlinear time effects (σ_tt) have essential effects on milk and cheese demand. The results show that in the case of the milk industry, retailers have received the most mark up in B1 brand milk (milk produced by Iranian Dairy Industries Co.-IDIC) during the studied years. In such a way that on average they have received a markup equal to 4.8%, while this markup for milk produced by other brands is equal to 3.9%. Regarding the cheese industry, retailers receive a higher price markup for B2 cheese compared to cheese produced by competing companies of IDIC, averaging at 4.0%. However, the price markup for cheese produced by IDIC is only slightly lower, averaging at 3.9%. Also, the results show that there is a lot of regional heterogeneity among the provinces of the country (the studied provinces) in the dairy products industry that the variation in the degree of advancement of dairy industries across various provinces may be regarded as the foremost contributing factor. So that the surcharge at the retail level is different in different provinces. The price increase in B1 brand milk has changed from 3.3% in East Azarbaijan province to 7% in Razavi Khorasan province. But the retailers have received markup for milk produced by other brands, i.e. B2, from 3% in West Azarbaijan province to 6.9% in Isfahan province. In the case of cheese, the surcharge received by competing companies of IDIC has changed from 2% in Fars province to 6.5% in East Azarbaijan province. However, the retailers have received additional price from 1.5% in East Azarbaijan province to 6.7% in Fars province for the cheese produced in IDIC.

Conclusion
As anticipated, the market dynamics have exerted a significant influence on pricing, thereby shaping the incentives for milk and cheese production and, ultimately, consumption. The lack of competitive conditions in the production of milk and cheese (which has been mentioned in some studies such as Shahbazi et al., 2009 and Shahbazi & Faryadras, 2018 can reduce the consumption of milk and cheese and in the result of creating lost welfare for consumers and society. In other words, the possession of a large share of the milk market by a small number of companies (especially IDIC) and production companies makes the milk market a monopoly market, and the existence of a monopoly in the market is considered one of the most important factors that cause lost welfare for consumers. One of the processes that create competition is the development of the industry in terms of increasing the number of production companies by encouraging people to create dairy companies by providing incentive facilities from the government. Planning and investing in product advertising, especially in brands with a small market size, can help increase competition and transparency in the market. Acknowledging regional disparities in the branding and marketing of milk and cheese commodities is a crucial factor that demands attention. Additionally, factoring in market share dynamics and evolving consumer presumptions can provide valuable insights for making informed decisions regarding production and management strategies.

Introduction
The agricultural sector is one of the most basic and vital component in the social and economic structures of any country. Today, with increasing in the world's population and needing to provide food on the other hand, and increasing in the price fluctuations of agricultural products on the other hand, traditional agriculture is no longer responsible for the sustainable food security of the world population. In recent years, the occurrence of two incidents of the spread of the corona virus and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, have made the price of agricultural products extremely unstable. Today, even many farmers and agricultural associations in developing countries are not aware of the changes in market prices and the latest technological developments in the field of agricultural product prices, and they do not have the ability to discover the optimal price for selling their products. In such a situation, the use of intelligent models in order to accurately forecast the price of agricultural goods is vitally important for farmers and agricultural sector activists.
Smart agriculture is an emerging concept that involves the integration of advanced technologies to collect and analyze data in order to solve the challenges and problems of the agricultural sector. In the meantime, forecasting the price of agricultural products involves with some basic challenges; including: 1) Data of agricultural product price is mostly non-linear, unstable, non-normal, and noisy and follows chaotic behavior, 2) There is uncertainty in the forecasted data obtained from different models, 3) In the studies related to price forecasting, the "publishable base model" is not provided in order to provide the forecasted price values. Therefore, the aim of this study is to provide a non-linear hybrid intelligent model for accurate forecasting of the future price of pistachios in the field of smart agriculture through managing the multidimensional nature of data, considering uncertainty in the forecasting data and finally building a publishable base model in the field of product price prediction.
The hybrid model proposed in this study has the following innovations; 1) the deep learning neural network model and the Auto-Encoder network have been used to forecast the agricultural product price and determine the optimal lag of price as an input variable simultaneously, 2) The Monte Carlo method has been used as a non-parametric method to provide a confidence interval and calculate the most likely price that can happen, 3) The practical application of price forecasting models, i.e., "publishable base model" is presented in order to provide forecasted price values.

Materials and Methods
The implementation of the proposed hybrid model in this study includes the steps of "data preparation", "data feature engineering", "training and testing the final deep learning neural network model", "building the optimal base model", "creating the most likely price scenarios" using the Monte Carlo method and "inferring new prices or making out-of-sample forecasting" with new data sets” by feeding new price data into the deep learning neural network model. In the proposed hybrid model, data mining techniques are used, including Wavelet Transform (WT), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), Auto-Encoder network (AE), Monte Carlo-Markov chain (MCMC) simulation method and the concept of "inferring new prices".
In the data preparation stage, using methods such as data smoothing, data rebuilding, correction of duplicate data in several consecutive days, and correction of missing data, the continuous set of pistachio future price time series is prepared to enter the primary model. Also, the wavelet transform function has been used for de-noising the data, the Auto-Encoder network has been used to determine the optimal lag, the Monte Carlo-Markov chain simulation has been used to create the most probable price scenarios, and the deployment concept has been used for out-of-sample forecasting with new data sets. The data used in this study is the time series of the daily price of pistachio futures on the Iran Commodity Exchange in the period from 10/13/2019 to 12/14/2021 in Rials per kilogram.

Results and Discussion
The results of this study showed that 1) by using the wavelet theory to de-noise the data, the error rate of the price data was reduced and the data had a stable trend, 2) the results of the implementation of the Auto-Encoder network showed that the optimal lag of one can be used as an input variable to forecast the future price of pistachios, 3) The outcomes derived from employing Monte Carlo-Markov chain simulation, coupled with out-of-sample forecasting using the new dataset, reveal compelling insights into the future pricing of pistachios on the Iranian Commodity Exchange. According to the analysis, the most probable and sanguine projection places the future price at the price ceiling of 213 thousand Tomans. Impressively, the forecasted price exhibits a minimal variance of merely 0.7% from the actual observed price, attesting to the precision of the proposed model. The overall accuracy of the model stands commendably high at approximately 93%.

Conclusion
Based on the results, firstly, the forecasted price has a small error with the actual price and this small error shows the power of the built model in forecasting the future price trend of pistachios. Secondly, the alignment of the price resulting from the Monte Carlo simulation with the new price can also be used as a confidence index in risk management for traders and market participants. Thirdly, the process set is the most complete value chain in the production of price forecasting models. Therefore, the use of the proposed hybrid model and the use of the components used in it, i.e. wavelet transform function, Auto-Encoder network, deep learning neural network, Monte Carlo simulation and the concept of inferring new prices; are suggested.

Introduction
The relationship between economic development and the environment is known as one of the most important issues facing societies. If in the context of sustainable development, economic and environmental activities are considered together, the environment and economic development are two complementary factors and, as a result, it will lead to ecological balance. In this case, economic activities will not disturb this balance. Presently, the imperative of safeguarding the environment and attaining sustainable development has ascended to a prominent position on the agendas of diverse societies, Iran included. This commitment is underscored by the execution of comprehensive economic, social, and cultural initiatives aimed at fostering long-term ecological resilience and balanced societal progress. Therefore, to preserve the environment and meet the goals of sustainable development, as well as to guide and rationally manage plans and projects, especially in the agricultural sector, serious measures should be taken. Therefore, this study was carried out to evaluate the operational, environmental, and eco-efficiency of the major agricultural products of the irrigation and drainage networks of Gotvand.
The irrigation and drainage network of Gotvand is located in the southwest of Iran in Khuzestan province. This network is designed to irrigate lands located in three regions of Gotvand, Aghili, and Dimcheh, enclosed between two rivers, Karun and Lor. According to the official statistics of government organizations, the consumption of fertilizers and chemical poisons in the lands covered by this network is 3.6 times the average limit in Iran. The excess irrigation water in this network is returned to the rivers by the built-in drains and causes water pollution downstream of the network. Therefore, considering that environmental protection is one of the most important aspects of sustainable development, it is very important to investigate the effects of the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers in agriculture and to introduce solutions to improve the efficiency of the environment in the study area.

Materials and Methods
Eco-efficiency includes operational and environmental impacts, which are presented as the ratio of the weighted sum of outputs to the weighted sum of inputs (operational inputs + environmental inputs). However, since agricultural activities are carried out in uncertain environmental conditions, there is uncertainty regarding inputs and outputs. The uncertainty in some of the effective input and output parameters in the ranking of networks, and as a result, the inaccuracy of the model calculation results, and the need to pay attention to the use of uncertainty models, make it more obvious. Therefore, in the present study, to include the conditions of uncertainty and risk, the robust data envelopment analysis (RDEA) model was used, which is one of the most powerful and useful models in conditions of uncertainty. The required data were collected by completing a questionnaire of the Gotvand, Aghili, and Dimche regions using a simple random sampling method in 2019.

Results and Discussion
The alfalfa producers in the Gotvand region assigned the highest environmental and Eco-efficiency by obtaining points in the range of 81 to 89 percent and 90 to 96 percent, respectively. The rice crop in the Aghili region had the highest types of operational efficiency based on different levels of deviation probability in the range of 77-87%, environmental efficiency in the range of 80-90%, and environmental-economic efficiency in the range of 87-95%. Dimanche sugarcane region has the highest average of efficiency types for different levels of deviation probability by obtaining points in the range of 78 to 90, 80 to 89, and 87 to 95 respectively for operational, environmental, and Eco-efficiency. Comparing the results of technical efficiency with environmental efficiency shows the lack of attention and skill of farmers in the correct and optimal use of production inputs. Therefore, it is necessary to hold educational and promotional classes to empower farmers to improve production methods and optimal consumption of inputs to improve farmers' income and increase their profits. Given that a substantial portion of energy consumption within the agricultural sector is attributed to fuels and diesel, optimizing energy usage and promoting the adoption of newer, less polluting energy sources emerge as crucial imperatives. Enhancing environmental efficiency in this context involves a strategic focus on reducing reliance on traditional, environmentally taxing energy forms in favor of more sustainable alternatives.

Conclusion
The average operating efficiency in all different probability levels for the studied products in Goutvand , Aghili, and Dimche areas, except for beans in the Gatund area, was estimated to be lower than the average environmental efficiency. This shows the lack of ability and skill of farmers to produce a certain product with the lowest amount of input, while the farmers of these areas pay great attention and care to environmental issues.

Introduction
The growing importance of energy resources in the formation and growth of economic processes, as well as the need to exploit these resources based on environmental considerations and sustainable economic development, the issue of energy saving as an important issue in all economic infrastructures, including industry. Global warming, declining crop yields, climate change and acid rain are the result of fossil fuel consumption. Hence, in recent years, there has been a growing global emphasis on renewable energy across both developed and developing nations. The primary objective is to decrease reliance on conventional energy sources, mitigate environmental pollution, and attain sustainable energy practices.

Materials and Ways
In the present study, a multi-objective mathematical planning model was designed, in which the optimal crop cultivation model in the southern grove area of Babol city, taking into account the maximum profit from the sale of crops, relying on expanding the use of renewable energy sources in the supply basket Irrigation water and reduction of fossil energy consumption used in irrigation water supply were determined. The objective functions of the study are in the form of two objectives: profit maximization and minimization of greenhouse gas emissions. The amount of profit considered in the present study is equal to the difference between income from crop production and total costs, including irrigation, planting and harvesting costs, seed costs, fertilizers and pesticides, and labor costs. The greenhouse gases considered in this study encompass CO2, N2O, and CH4, with the objective of minimizing their emissions for the determination of an optimal crop pattern. The study endeavors to resolve the proposed nonlinear multi-objective pattern utilizing the constraint epsilon method. Subsequently, employing the energy link indexes (E), the optimal solution is identified among the proposed alternatives through the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision model. The statistical population for this investigation comprises farmers in the southern forest area of Babol city. The analysis of results has been conducted using Matlab, Lingo, and Excel software.

Results and Discussion
In this study, a multi-objective model with objective functions of profit maximization and minimization of greenhouse gas emissions subject to energy, energy flow, water, fertilizer, and capital and land constraints using the method the constraint is resolved and eventually the study decision variables are obtained. In terms of recyclable energy, the model suggests that four types of Tarom rice, Shiroodi rice, soybean, and corn be grown with 0.40, 0.34, 0.14 and 0.12 ha / ha, respectively. As can be seen, in accordance with the outputs of the optimal model in terms of renewable energy, most of the cultivated land is allocated to Tarom and Shiroodi rice. The total amount of energy required in the optimal model in terms of renewable energy was 2518 kWh, of which fossil energy is 79% and solar energy is 21%. According to the calculations made in Equation 3, to provide 21% (518 kWh) of solar electricity required by the irrigation system in order to irrigate one hectare of the proposed model of the optimal model in the study area, a solar panel with a capacity of 0.22 kW will be required. The results of the model show that in terms of renewable energy, with the implementation of the proposed model, the profit of farmers in the region per hectare increases from 14776.21 to 14778.18 million rials compared to the situation of non-renewable energy in the entire growing season. In other words, in the current situation, people cultivate crops regardless of energy consumption and production costs (traditional method of rice production by local farmers), while by choosing the right model, the farmer's economic benefits can be increased by 0.013%. At the same time, it saved a significant amount of fossil energy consumption.The minimum emission target of the model in terms of renewable energy states that for the cultivation of 0.40 hectares of Tarom rice, 0.34 hectares of Shiroodi, 0.14 hectares of soybean and 0.12 hectares of corn, at the rate of 2836 kg equivalent to CO2 pollution Fertilizers, pesticides and fossil fuel consumption will be released, which is 9% less than the current situation where only fossil fuels are used to irrigate crops.

Conclusion
In the present study, the interests of farmers were considered by considering the maximum profit from the sale of agricultural products by relying on the use of renewable energy sources in the energy basket of the agricultural sector (by reducing the fuel consumption of fossil energy sources used) in determining the cultivation pattern. Optimally calculated and compared with current conditions. The results show that the optimal model in terms of renewable energy, shows a more appropriate achievement of goals than in the absence of renewable energy. To this end, it is suggested that agricultural policy makers, by promoting the use of solar energy in irrigation and the use of this large capacity in the country, justify farmers to the potential benefits of solar energy (in the agricultural sector) and its widespread use, reduce current agricultural subsidies in the energy sector. Fossilization and subsidizing solar energy, encouraging the private sector to invest in solar projects can help power irrigation projects.

Introduction
The development process of organic cultivation in Iran is not favorable because the average growth rate of organic agriculture development from 2008 to 2019 according to FAO statistics in 2021 is equal to -0.47% and this is while foods contaminated with various substances Chemicals have an unpleasant effect on the general health of society. According to the statistics of 2021, 600 million people in the world, i.e. 1 out of every 10 people, will get sick after eating food. Since any change in the use of chemicals in agriculture should be based on the behavior of farmers, the purpose of this study is to investigate the behavioral intention to produce organic pistachio production among 5200 pistachio growers in Ardakan county, Yazd province, using the Decomposed Theory of Planned Behavior (DTPB) analysis.

Material and Methods
The current research is classified as a quantitative research and is a descriptive-survey type of research, and in terms of the type of objective, it is considered a part of applied research. Based on Cochran's formula, the sample size was determined to be 358 people. Considering the distribution and dispersion of pistachio growers in different sectors, multi-stage random sampling was used. The face and content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of academic experts in the departments of horticulture, agricultural development, plant protection and psychology, as well as experts of Jihad Keshavarzi of the county. To determine the reliability of the questionnaire tool, a pre-test study was conducted among 30 farmers of Aqda Aflatak village, which was part of the villages of Ardakan county, but outside the study sample. The reliability of the questionnaire was estimated using Cronbach's alpha test. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was obtained from 0.649 to 0.836, which indicates acceptable reliability. SPSS22 and SmartPLS2 software were used for data analysis.

Result and Discussion
Descriptive findings showed that 358 respondents were 336 men and 22 women. Among them, 48 people lived in the village and 310 people lived in the city. The statistical results of the present study showed that the average age of the respondents was 53 years old, who had an average of 9 years of formal education. They had an average of 15 years of experience in the field of pistachio farming, and 30% of household income was dependent on pistachio production. According to the statistical sample of the research in terms of age, the highest frequency (137) were in the 41-50 age group. In terms of pistachio cultivation area, 204 farmers had less than one hectare, which constituted 59.9% of the studied sample. The inferential findings of this research showed that the factors affecting farmers' behavioral intention to produce organic pistachio products were perceived mental norms (β= 0/362) and perceived behavioral control (β=0/185). The findings of this research were in line with the results of Yadavar et al (2018). Also, the findings of this study showed the absence of a significant relationship between attitude and behavioral intention, which was not in line with the results of Safi Sis et al. (2020), Fatemi et al. (2018), Yadavar et al. (2018). According to the research model, the lack of a significant effect between the attitude variable and farmers' perception of the compatibility of organic production methods with their current values and needs, including consumers not purchasing organic pistachios, is notable. This lack of impact may be attributed to consumer-related challenges such as higher prices and insufficient information and awareness about organic products, which could hinder the financial feasibility of implementing organic production. Moreover, the research indicates that the attitude variable did not significantly influence farmers' perception of the ease of applying organic pistachio production methods in the orchard. As a result, the attitude variable did not exert a significant effect on behavioral intention in this context.

Conclusion
The most important factors in the behavioral intention to produce organic pistachios are the variables of subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. In fact, the issue of environmental protection and measures to prevent water, soil and environment pollution were the popular and accepted behaviors among the pistachio growers in the studied area, and the pistachio growers had come to believe that the use of organic production methods is one of the accepted behaviors of important and prominent people in their accepted social network. Therefore, it is suggested that the extension department of Ardakan Agricultural Jihad Management, by holding various meetings centered on leading farmers in the matter of organic production, provides effective networking for more exposure, contact and communication of pistachio farmers, so as to facilitate their decision making process to enter into organic pistachio production. Also, the findings showed that from the point of view of pistachio farmers, the use of organic production methods and operations is under the control and authority of the farmer and he can use it in his garden if he wishes. Therefore, it is suggested that the extension department of Jihad-Kashawarzi management of Ardakan county continues to provide educational, facilities and services support needed by pistachio farmers and in this regard, planning and providing services in the direction of changing the consumer's attitude towards buying organic products in various ways such as festivals, exhibitions and production Media programs. Considering the importance of removing obstacles to the implementation of organic production in pistachio orchards, it is suggested that necessary support measures be established by the government in the field of covering the operational costs of organic pistachio production until the pistachio farmers reach the markets of organic products inside and outside the country. It is also suggested that due to the diversity in the quality of water, soil and pistachio variety of the farmers, the extension department should organize training courses in such a way that they understand the ease of using this kind of methods and its management in the garden.

Iran’s agricultural exports have grown significantly in recent years. Cropland products (HS07) have become the second most important group in Iran’s agricultural exports over the last years. However, few studies have investigated the export potentials of cropland products. Therefore, this study aims to determine the main factors of Iran’s cropland products exports and calculate the export efficiency and potential in the trading partners. For this aim, the stochastic frontier gravity model is estimated based on balanced panel data covering 21 importing countries over the period of 2001 to 2021. The results indicated that economic and physical size of importing countries have positive and significant effect on the exports of Iran’s cropland products. In addition, common border between Iran and trading partners and economic sanctions have also positive and significant effect on the cropland products exports, while geographical distance between Iran and importing countries has negatively effects on the exports. The results of export efficiency showed that Iran does not have 100 percent efficiency in any destination market over the period of 2015 to 2021. Iran has an export efficiency of more than 50 percent only in Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Canada and Iraq. According to the results, Iran has the highest potential for exports of cropland products in Iraq. Hence, considering the high potentials in neighboring countries and significantly positive effect of common border partners, it is suggested that trading countries with common border like Iraq should be a top priority for the exports of cropland products.

The prices accepted by consumers in the market are influenced by the characteristics of the goods, based on consumer behavior. Each of these features contributes to the price agreed upon by both consumers and suppliers. The packaging of a product plays a crucial role in attracting consumers and protecting the product from damage. High-quality and visually appealing packaging can create a positive perception among consumers, potentially resulting in a higher price point. Additionally, specialized packaging techniques designed to preserve freshness and extend the shelf life of oil can also impact the price. This study investigates the impact of quality and packaging on the price of sunflower oil in Iran. The primary objective was accomplished using the hedonic pricing method. Given the qualitative and ordinal nature of the dependent variable, the ordinal logit model was employed. The sample size was determined through a two-stage cluster sampling approach, which involved collecting 350 questionnaires from consumers in Tehran city. Statistical analysis was conducted using Shazam and Stata software. Numerous factors influence the consumption of sunflower oil at various levels. However, in general, factors such as increasing age, higher income levels, the presence of diseases, and dietary considerations contribute to a decrease in its consumption. On the other hand, factors like improving product quality, enhancing the quality of oil packaging, increasing consumer loyalty towards edible oil, and rising online sales of this product contribute to an increase in its demand.

In recent years, the fluctuation in agricultural commodity prices in Iran is increased and thus, accurate forecasting of price change is necessary. In this article, a flexible combined method in modeling monthly prices of beef, lamb and chicken from April 2001 to March 2021, was proposed. In this new method, three different approaches namely simple averaging, discounted and shrinkage methods were effectively used to combine the forecasting outputs of three hybrid methods (MLPANN-GA, MLPANN-PSO and MLPANN-ICA) together. In implementation stage of hybrid methods, based on test and error method, the optimal MLPANN structure was found with 3/2/4–6–1 architectures and the controlling parameters are carefully assigned. The results obtained from three hybrid methods indicate that, based on the RMSE statistical index, the MLPANN-ICA method performs the best when forecasting prices for beef, lamb, and chicken. The outputs of three combination approaches show that the shrinkage method, with a parameter value of K=0.25, achieves the highest prediction accuracy when forecasting prices for these three meats. In summary, the proposed method outperforms the other three hybrid methods overall.

Export is a crucial driver of economic growth in various countries and significantly contributes to a country's entry into global markets and enhances economic success. In developing countries such as Iran, economic and social development programs prioritize the expansion of exports, particularly high value added agricultural products. The growth in non-oil exports, such as dried fruits, and the entry of domestic producers into new global markets have led to an increased demand for Iran's export products. This has also resulted in higher production levels, increased employment opportunities, and higher value added in the related activities. To enhance export performance, which is a crucial measure of a company's success in utilizing its resources and capabilities in the international arena over a specific period of time, it is important to focus on improving marketing strategies and specialized knowledge. Therefore, this research aims to examine the impact of marketing mix and specialized marketing knowledge on the export performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) involved in exporting dried fruits in Mashhad, Iran in 2022. A total of 80 questionnaires were distributed among senior managers, board members, and business managers of dried fruits SMEs using the available sampling method. Structural equation modeling was employed for data analysis and test of research hypotheses. The statistical data and structural equation modeling revealed that the joint impact of marketing mix and specialized marketing knowledge has a positive and significant influence on export performance. In order to improve the company's profitability, it is essential for senior managers and sales managers to recognize the significance of these two factors and undergo relevant training to acquire the necessary skills. Moreover, managers should make effective use of appropriate distribution channels to expand their exports. Simultaneously, they should consider adapting product quality and packaging to align with the preferences of foreign buyers.

Commodity Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) are one type of ETF that underlying assets are agricultural products, energy or metals instead of stocks. These ETFs expose their investors to the market of various commodities in different ways, such as physical commodity, futures of single commodity, futures of baskets commodities, equities with exposures to commodities in various forms. In recent years, this financial instrument has become one of the important investment options among several people by creating many advantages. Despite these developments, scarce evidence exists in the current literature on the feedback trading of ETF investors. The objective of this paper is examination of feedback trading in behavior investors of Saffron ETF in Iran. For this purpose, daily data of two Saffron ETF for January 3, 2021 - Novenber 11, 2022 and Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) model was used. Empirical analysis suggests that volatility of fund return is symmetrical against the news. Despite a formal market with full overlapping for the underlying assets, Saffron ETFs investors do not notice about the difference between ETFs' market prices and their Net Asset Value (NAV). The results of the feedback trading model show that there is no evidence of feedback trading in Saffron ETF. It seems that the market of Saffron ETF is efficient, which can be related to the specificity of the underlying assets and the investors of these ETFs.

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in Africa's development and is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the agricultural sector is inherently exposed to production risks, and many farmers in the developing world lack access to reliable agricultural insurance coverage. This situation arises due to limited data and knowledge about farmers' insurance needs and the high costs associated with insuring against severe agricultural risks. Promoting agricultural insurance as an instrument can have several significant impacts, aligning with multiple SDGs. It can help stabilize farmers' income, thereby contributing to the goal of reducing poverty (SDG 1). Moreover, agricultural insurance can provide a safety net for food producers, helping them manage the impacts of climate-related risks and aligning with SDG 13, which addresses climate action. Additionally, by enhancing the resilience of farmers and ensuring more predictable income, agricultural insurance can contribute to addressing hunger (SDG 2) and ultimately create a more sustainable and prosperous agricultural sector in Africa. Therefore, this study evaluated agricultural insurance as an instrument for sustainable food supply systems in Nigeria. This study adopted a survey design. This study captured thoughts, experiences, and observations of selected agricultural underwriters in the Nigerian insurance industry through structured questionnaire. A descriptive statistic was employed in the data analysis. This study results indicated that aside from farmers’ awareness which showed some level of yardstick with respect to farmers behavioural metrics, all other metrics played no significant roles. It was also recorded that why farmers’ age, gender, family size and farming experience have no significant roles in the uptake of agricultural insurance, all other participatory factors have major effects. The study contributed significantly to knowledge with the graphical representations of the challenges confronting the agricultural insurers in Nigeria. The study provided suitable recommendations that endear achievable SDGs in Nigeria.

Introduction: One of the principal requirements for sustainable agriculture is efficient energy use. Energy use in agriculture has been increasing in response to the growing global population, limited arable land and desire for higher living standards. It should be noted that agriculture contributes significantly to atmospheric GHG emissions, with 10-12% of the net global CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions. The scientific community believes global warming will pose one of the major environmental challenges in the future, with the bulk of GHG originating from fossil fuel consumption. Kiwifruit is an economically important fruit crop in northern Iran, because the northern region of Iran is a suitable, natural habitat for kiwifruit cultivation. The high kiwifruit production in Iran has reached a point that Iran is now well-known on global markets and in recent years this fruit has contributed a large share to agricultural exports. More recently, Mazandaran horticulturists have been encouraged to produce more kiwifruit. Increased production leads to greater energy consumption by Iranian kiwifruit orchards due to the added application of inputs, such as fertilizers and fuel. Besides, where there is no clear energy consumption pattern in agricultural production, especially fruit orchards, a lot of energy dissipates in the fruit production cycle. Therefore, it seems necessary to provide a model for the energy consumption of kiwifruit orchards in Mazandaran Province to prevent excessive energy utilization. Energy analysis is one of the methods has been used to evaluate the status of agricultural production. In this regard, many researchers have used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for optimization the energy consumption in agricultural productions. DEA is recognized as a methodology widely used to evaluate the relative efficiency of a set of decision-making units (DMUs) involved in a production process. Although DEA is a powerful tool to measure efficiency but the uncertainty in the applied data in this model is inevitable and there is need to use different models that be able to control this uncertainty.
Materials and Methods: In this study, in order to determine the efficiency of kiwifruit orchards in Mazandaran province and in terms of uncertainty of input data, the Robust Data Envelopment Analysis model (RDEA) and Fuzzy Interval Data Envelopment Analysis model (FIDEA) were used. The method incorporates the degree of conservatism in the maximum probability bound for constraint violation. The required data were collected by distributing and completing a questionnaire and face-to-face interview using random sampling method in 1397-98.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that the average technical efficiency of all kiwi fields in RDEA model at three levels of probability include: 10, 50 and 100% is equal to 0.93, 0.96 and 0.98%, respectively. The results of FIDEA model showed that if the level of parameter α (optimal use of production factors) increases, the average efficiency of kiwi fields will increase. The highest energy savings are related to chemical pesticides and the lowest amount of savings is related to the chemical fertilizers and electricity inputs, respectively. So, holding the training courses on the correct and optimal use of production inputs from an economic and managerial point of view and improving the level of knowledge of farmers and factors involved in kiwi production in Mazandaran province can improve the efficiency and save energy consumptions.
Conclusion: Evaluating the performance of many activities by a traditional DEA approach requires precise input and output data. However, input and output data in real-world problems are often imprecise or vague. To deal with imprecise data, this study uses RDEA and FIDEA approaches as a way to quantify vague data in DEA models. It is shown that the approaches can be a useful tool in DEA models without introducing additional complexity into the problem. A case study of kiwifruit orchard units is presented to illustrate the reliability and flexibility of the models. As a result, efficiency decreases as the constraint violation probability increased. Additionally, the RDEA approach provides both a deterministic guarantee about the efficiency level of the model, as well as a probabilistic guarantee that is valid for all symmetric distributions.

Keywords: Robust data envelopment, Energy optimization, Efficiency

Introduction: Among the various available tools in the field of natural resources and environmental management, the payment for ecosystem services (PES) is one of the market-based methods that is considered worldwide to protect the environment and ecosystem. PES is an important method for effective management of natural resources and public goods and one of the tools for managing degraded ecosystems and related environmental and economic services. Considering that Sefidrood is considered as the most important and valuable source of agricultural water supply and aquatic environment in Guilan province, and also the water quality of this important river is in a bad and very bad condition, this study was conducted using PES economic tools through payments by rice consumers in Guilan province to rice farmers and thus encouraging them to take environmentally friendly measures (organic agriculture) to reduce pollution of the Sefidrood River.
Materials and Methods: This research was conducted using a choice experiment method. In our CE, each PES alternative is described by a set of attributes that include distribution of payments, contract duration, implementing organization, monitoring times, possibility to cancel and payments. First, to investigate the effect of different attributes of PES scheme on rice consumers' willingness to pay and their marginal utility, a conditional logit model was used to compare the results of random parameter logit model and latent class models with a base model. Then, the RPL and LC model was used to further investigate the invisible heterogeneity that exists in the behavior of respondents. The RPL model is an advanced model that allows attributes coefficients to change randomly among respondents. Therefore, instead of estimating a fixed coefficient for each attribute, two coefficients are estimated, which together describe the distribution of heterogeneous preferences of the respondents for this attribute.
Results and Discussion: To confirm the CL model, the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption was performed using the Hausman-McFadden test. Given that the value of chi-square statistics has become large and significant, therefore, the CL model is not suitable for investigating the effect of attributes on consumer’s willingness to pay, and more advanced models should be used. For this reason, RPL and LC models are estimated. According to the results of the RPL model, the highest willingness to pay is related to the monitoring times therefor indicating that consumers are willing to pay 1347 Tomans for more monitoring. The amount of willingness to pay for the duration of contract and distribution of payments is equal to 1326 and 914 Tomans, respectively, which indicates if the contracts are short-time and also more payments are made to low-income rice farmers, the willingness to pay will increase to 1326 and 914 Tomans, respectively. Based on the results of the LC model, in the first class, except for the contract duration, all other attributes were not statistically significant. In the second class, the distribution of payments, the contract duration and the monitoring times with a positive sign and the implementing organization with a negative sign are significant. Class membership coefficients for organic rice consumers indicate that the likelihood of being in second class depends significantly on the respondents' age, gender, and level of education.
Conclusion: The results of RPL and LC models confirm the existence of heterogeneity in the preferences of organic rice consumers. Therefore, appropriate methods can be used to differentiate organic products and thus improve the utility of consuming these products. Consumers were also more inclined to have a short-time and high monitoring scheme, this result is not unexpected due to the novelty of the scheme. Therefore, it is recommended to start short-time schemes with high monitoring. Consumers also tended to make more payments to low-income rice farmers, so it is recommended that lower-income rice farmers be given priority in implementing the PES scheme. The results of both model showed that the distribution of payments and monitoring times had the highest priority for consumers in choosing the PES scheme, respectively. Therefore, in order to increase the participation of consumers in such schemes, it is recommended to include these attributes in the schemes. Also, although PES is not designed as a tool to reduce poverty, it can increase the incomes of low-income rice farmers and help their livelihoods. Given that such schemes have not yet been implemented in Iran, it is suggested that in order to increase consumer participation, various levels of attributes should be provided to the respondents.

Keywords: Choice experiment, Guilan province, Random parameter Logit, River pollution, Willingness to pay

Introduction: In recent decades, due to increase in population and demand for agricultural products, creating new forms of energy in the agricultural sector and improper use of inputs due to lack of proper management, this economic sector has become an energy consuming sector. So far, various studies have been conducted to measure energy efficiency and cost in the agricultural sector. In most studies conducted in Iran, energy efficiency for the production of various crops has been calculated based on the final product besides material wastage has not been considered in terms of energy and cost. Material Flow Cost Accounting (MFCA) is an environmental management tool that can help farmers completely understand the financial and environmental consequences of using materials and energy and provide opportunities to achieve them, as well. Unlike most environmental management systems such as ISO 14001, which, despite their impact on reducing environmental damage, do not explicitly help increase farmers' incomes and even impose additional costs on farms, the implementation of the MFCA, by striking a balance between the environment and the economy, would have significant results in increasing energy and material productivity for many farms.
The main purpose of implementing MFCA in potato production is to quantify and identify the losses of agricultural inputs, which leads to effective management of residues and emissions in different stages of crop production. All output materials, including agricultural products and wastes in different stages of production, are calculated and measured in this method.
Materials and Methods: According to ISO 14051, the MFCA is a management tool that helps farmers recognize and reduce the potential environmental and financial consequences of product development. Likewise, this tool provides opportunities for achieving environmental and financial improvements through the transparency of processes. Accordingly, MFCA can provide important information at various stages of the cycle of Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) (figure 1).

The use of materials and energy in the agricultural sector is tracked and evaluated through the development of the material and energy flow model (in terms of physical units such as mass and volume) in the method of MFCA (figure 2). In this phase, the raw materials consumed, the energy used, costs, as well as the emissions to atmosphere, soil, and water are quantified. Within the system boundaries, the following assumptions and limitations are adopted:
System boundaries do not include: construction of factory buildings, vehicles, machines and equipment, etc.
System boundaries do not include: transportation
Energy balance analysis is a method to identify and evaluate various energy flows that take part in the production system. This analysis determines how efficient the energy is used by establishing the relationship between energy inputs and energy output. This relationship estimates whether energy is lost, gained, or would remain the same.

Figure (2): Material flow model for potato production within the MFCA boundary

Results and Discussion: According to the results, the highest amount of energy input comes from fossil fuels and nitrogen fertilizer. Based on the energy and economic indices calculated by the two accounting methods (i.e. conventional and material flow cost accounting), it was found that the total value of potato production based on conventional accounting is 7,195$ per hectare, while this figure is 8,212$ per hectare based on material flow cost accounting method. Energy efficiency in farms, applying conventional energy accounting, was calculated to be 2.65, while this index, using material flow cost accounting, was calculated to be 2.22. The difference between energy efficiency and cost-benefit ratio is attributed to the negative production value obtained in the potato production process in Hamadan province, Iran. Potato growers can increase their income up to 1,016$ per hectare through management measures. If the negative production is reduced, the cost-benefit ratio will increase by 0.57 in the production process.
Conclusion: Costing energy and energy flows through a comprehensive assessment of energy and costs helps to foster the relationship between the economy and the environment. Using the suggested solutions can save a significant amount of money on reducing negative products. MFCA recognizes the material and energy waste, and, farmers, by applying it, enhance their awareness of the usual losses in the field. Farmers, also, can improve processes on their farm and reduce production costs based on a rational assessment.

Keywords: ISO 14051, Energy efficiency, Energy accounting, Environmental management, Energy efficiency

Introduction: One of the most important variables effective on the PPI of agricultural products is the exchange rate. With the change in the exchange rate, the relative prices of exports and imports have changed, and given that the major part of the imports in agricultural sector is the inputs required for the production of this sector, this will change the cost of agricultural products. The exchange rate directly affects the export and import of agricultural products and agricultural inputs and indirectly affects production, income, costs, profits and investment in the agricultural sector. Thus, the exchange rate affects the price index in this sector due to its effect on the supply and demand of products and inputs in the agricultural sector. Monetary policy is one of the factors that can affect the price of food and agricultural products. One of the main goals of monetary policy is to stabilize the general level of prices in the economy. In a situation where society is exposed to inflationary pressures and the CPI is rising, the application of a contractionary monetary policy can play an important role in inflation control.
Materials and Methods: In this study is used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) method for estimating of PPI agricultural products equation using Eveiws12 software. The data required for this study are related to the period 2009 (Chapter 4) to 2019 (Chapter 4), which is mainly collected from domestic library sources, including the Statistical Center of Iran, the Ministry of Agriculture-Jihad, the Central Bank of Iran and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. The data on the effective real exchange rate has been extracted from the IMF web site. Based on the theoretical foundations and fulfilled studies, the long-run relationship exists between the PPI of agricultural products and the explanatory variables such as real effective exchange rate, GDP, CPI and money supply. This equation is transformed into an unbound error correction model (UECM) using the functional form ARDL (p, q) and is estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. In this study, the Bounds test has used for investigating the existence of a long-term relationship (co-integration) between independent and dependent variables. Also the Wald test has used for investigating the symmetric or asymmetric effects of independent variables (exchange rate and money supply) on the dependent variable.
Results and Discussion: The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test show that all variables are stationary in first difference. In other words, the variables are integrated from the first degree and in this research, the NARDL approach can be used. The results of Bounds test indicate that in both the linear symmetric model (ARDL) and the nonlinear asymmetric model (NARDL), the calculated F-statistic is greater than the critical values of the upper bound. Thus, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables of both models is accepted with 99% confidence. The results of linear model (ARDL) indicate that the real effective exchange rate with a time lag, in the short term has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. The GDP variable only in the long run has a negative and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In addition, the CPI in the short term with a time lag and in the long term has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Also, in the linear model, money supply (monetary policy) has had a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products only in the long run. The results of the NARDL model show that in the short run, only the positive shock of real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Accordingly, the GDP variable in the short run has a negative and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In the short run, the CPI with a time lag has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In addition, in the short run, the positive and negative shocks of money supply have not had a significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In the long run, the positive shock of real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In addition, the negative shock of the real effective exchange rate in the long run has a negative and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Also, positive shocks of money supply (monetary policy) in the long run have a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Negative shocks of money supply (monetary policy) in the long run have a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In the long run, GDP has had a negative and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products.
Conclusion: The results indicate that the positive shock of the real effective exchange rate, both in the short run and in the long run, has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Therefore, the depreciation of national currency always increases the PPI of agricultural products. Therefore, the most important step forward for the policymakers and planners to control the rising trend of prices is to prevent the depreciation of the national currency. Based on these results, positive and negative shocks of money supply (expansionary and contractionary monetary policies) have a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products only in the long run. Therefore, application of monetary policy in the agricultural sector is like a double-edged sword, and the use of these instruments by monetary authorities requires consideration of all aspects.

Keywords: Agricultural sector, Asymmetric effects, Exchange rate, Monetary policy, Price index

Introduction: Agriculture is one of the basic sectors of any country and is very important in creating employment and production of industrial raw materials. Although the most important role of agriculture in any country is to provide the food security. The world's population is growing, and resources are dwindling. Therefore, feeding the growing population of the world requires more agricultural production. One of the ways to increase agricultural production is to increase yield per hectare. Chemical fertilizers significantly increase production per hectare. But excessive use of chemical fertilizers can also lead to environmentally externalities such as groundwater pollution, reduced quality of agricultural products and endanger human health and the environment. Therefore, the optimal use of production inputs in the agricultural sector is essential. Unfortunately, despite the emphasis of agricultural economists on the optimal use of production inputs, this issue has been taken for granted by farmers and policymakers in the agricultural sector. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal economic level of use of chemical fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) in the production of irrigated wheat and barley.
Materials and Methods: In order to determine the optimal economic level of chemical fertilizer inputs (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) in the production of irrigated wheat and barley in Iran, Bayesian approach and non-normally distributed stochastic plateau function, based on the developed Von Liebig algorithm were used. The estimation of the optimal amount of input usage depends on the functional form and the distribution assumptions based on the production data. The stochastic plateau function is one of the functions has been used to determine the optimal amount of inputs (especially chemical fertilizers). The stochastic plateau function provides insight into why farmers may over-use inputs. The efficiency of the linear stochastic plateau function is better than nonlinear and polynomial functions, and it estimates a more realistic pattern of farmers' expected profits, because the function is stochastic. For simple model estimation, only the input of chemical fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) is considered as the limiting resource. If it is assumed that the threshold point is related to the intercept, which represents the yield of crops without input consumption, the equation of the stochastic plateau function is written as the following relation:
(1) Y_t= β_0+min⁡〖(β_1⁡〖K_i 〗,θv_t)〗+u_t+ε_t
Where Y_t  the yield of the crops in Iran, K is the amount of input in the crop production, β_(i ) and θ are the coefficients of the yield function that must be estimated, and u_t≈N(0,σ_u^2) is the transmitter intercept that represents all random variables. The used data in this study were collected from agricultural statistics and the production cost database of the Agriculture Ministry. The panel data were collected during 2007-2017 period.
Results and Discussion: Based on the results of the study, the average optimal consumption of nitrogen fertilizer in the production of irrigated wheat and irrigated barley in Iran was estimated 117.05 and 29.00 kg/ha, respectively, while the current average consumption of nitrogen fertilizer in the production of irrigated wheat and barley is 163.626 and 38.75 kg/ha, respectively. In other words, during the years 2007 to 2017, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer used in the production of irrigated wheat was 46.576 kg/ha (equivalent to 28.46%) and in the production of irrigated barley was 9.75 kg/ha (equivalent to 25.16%) more than the optimal level. Also, the potential yield of irrigated wheat and barley with respect to nitrogen fertilizer input was estimated 2754.5 and 2549.80 kg/ha, respectively, in the Bayesian method. The average optimal use of phosphate fertilizer in production of irrigated wheat in Iran was estimated as 97.70 kg/ha, while the current average consumption of phosphate fertilizer in production of irrigated wheat is equal to 123.06.02 kg/ha. In other words, during the years 2007 to 2017, the amount of phosphate fertilizer used in the production of irrigated wheat in Iran was 25.362 kg per hectare (equivalent to 20.609%) more than the optimal level. Also, the potential yield of irrigated wheat due to phosphate fertilizer input, about 2904.54 kg/ha has been obtained in Bayesian method. the average optimal consumption of potash fertilizer in the production of irrigated wheat and irrigated barley in Iran was estimated 39.68 and 81.81 kg/ha, respectively, while the current average consumption of potash fertilizer in the production of irrigated wheat and barley is 50.64 and 134.18 kg/ha, respectively. In other words, during the years 2007 to 2017, the amount of potash fertilizer used in the production of irrigated wheat was 10.96 kg/ha (equivalent to 21.65%) and in the production of irrigated barley was 52.37 kg/ha (equivalent to 39.02%) more than the optimal level.
Conclusion: According to the results of present study, farmers in the production of wheat and barley use chemical fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) more than the optimal amount, so that the average optimal use of chemical fertilizers of nitrogen, phosphate and potash in the production of irrigated wheat, respectively 28.52, 20.59 and 78.36, and in the production of irrigated barley, the average optimal use of nitrogen and potash chemical fertilizers, respectively 74.84 and 39.03% per hectare, are less than the current amount of chemical fertilizer use in the country. According to the results of the study, in order to more efficiently use of chemical fertilizers and to reduce environmental pollution caused by their use in agricultural production, the government should reduce the direct payment of chemical fertilizer subsidies. Regarding the elimination of subsidies and pricing of chemical fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate and potash), the importance of the type of fertilizer in crop production, input production elasticity and input demand elasticity should be considered.

Keywords: Bayesian method, Fertilizer, Iran, Optimum consumption, Stochastic Plateau function, Wheat

Introduction: Climate change and increasing global warming are intensifying droughts, changes in rainfall distribution and depletion of water resources over time. Persisting hot and dry weather has intensified the phenomenon of climate change and posed serious threats to the country's water resources, resulting in the inability to meet the needs like drinking, environmental, industrial and agricultural ones. The fifth report of the Climate Change Board also shows that the phenomenon of climate change in many parts of the world has had a negative impact on agricultural production; but the application of appropriate and timely adaptive scenarios against climate change can reduce the negative effects of this phenomenon on the agricultural crops yield. Bushehr province is mostly exposed to climate change and drought because of its geographical location. According to the National Meteorological Center, the area affected by drought in this province during the ten-year period ending in March 2019, was 83%. Up to 80% of the plains of the province have a negative groundwater level. This problem is more severe in some plains of the province, including Bushkan plain, the water level of this plain has decreased by 1.31 meters annually. This plain is considered as the agricultural hub of province and Dashtestan city. Thus the study of the effects of climate change on the hydrological and agricultural situation of the Bushkan plain and the analysis of the effectiveness of adaptive scenarios to reduce the negative effects of this phenomenon is very important.
Materials and Methods: In this study, in order to create optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of climate change, the LARS-WG microscale model was used. Then, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on the hydrological status of Bushkan plain, water needs of agricultural crops and crops yield, simulated climate change scenarios and adaptive scenarios include improve irrigation efficiency and deficit irrigation were entered into WEAP model and its agro-agricultural model, MABIA. For the purpose of investigating the adaptation of agricultural production systems to changes in available water and yield as well as to measure the effectiveness of adaptive scenarios, a positive economic planning model was used. For economic model, statistics and information related to the cultivation area, production costs, prices and yields of crops in different areas of Bushkan plain were obtained through the Jihad Agricultural Organization and also completed 100 questionnaires from farmers in the area. Random sampling method was used to calculate the sample size.
Results and Discussion: By applying two scenarios, optimistic A1B and pessimistic A2, in general, it can be concluded that the most changes in precipitation were in autumn and winter and the most temperature changes were at least in autumn and spring. Also, applying a pessimistic scenario will cause more drastic changes than an optimistic scenario. The results of MABIA model show that by applying both climatic scenarios, the average water requirement of all agricultural products increases during the simulation period compared to the base period.
Increasing water demand and decreasing available water have caused water stress and as a result reduced the yield of various agricultural products in Bushkan plain. The results show that the average crop yields decreases, but the highest reduction of yield in both scenarios is related to wheat crop. The results of PMP model indicates that the application of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios will reduce the area under cultivation of this plain by 42% and 55%, respectively. On the other hand, among different crops, the area under cultivation of crops such as wheat, barley and watermelon has declined more sharply. However, the application of adaptive scenarios to improve irrigation efficiency and under-irrigation somewhat offsets the effects of climate change. In optimistic climate change, adaptive scenarios to improve irrigation efficiency and use of deficit irrigation method will improve the area under cultivation of agricultural products by 6 and 4 percent, and in pessimistic climate change by 3.8 and 2.3%.Comparison of the results of applying adaptive scenario shows that despite the less effect of deficit irrigation on improving the area under crops, the increase in profit in this scenario is more than the improvement of irrigation efficiency and the reason is the costs of improving irrigation efficiency compared to the deficit irrigation scenario.
Conclusion and Recommendations: Principles of resource management and low productivity have led to declining groundwater levels and as a result the ban on the exploitation of more groundwater in the plains of Bushehr province, including the Bushkan plain. Accordingly, in this study, the consequences of climate change on the hydrological and agricultural situation in the Bushkan plain of Bushehr province as well as the effectiveness of adaptive scenarios were investigated .Finally, based on the results of the present study, it is suggested that farmers use scenarios such as deficit irrigation methods and improve irrigation efficiency to prevent water loss and reduce the yield of these crops. However, since the results showed that using deficit irrigation method will improve agricultural profits more than improving irrigation efficiency, therefore, using deficit irrigation method has priority over improving irrigation efficiency. Also due to the low impact of climate change on water demand and canola yield, canola is suggested to local farmers as an alternative crop for wheat and barley crops.

Keywords: Bushkan plain, Climate change, Positive Mathematical Programming, WEAP Model

Introduction: Agriculture is a risky activity and a wide range of risks are affecting the income earned from agricultural products. Market risk is the main source of revenue fluctuations in agriculture in all over the world. One of the subsectors of agricultural sector is animal farming industry that its changes during recent years have greatly influenced the revenue of investors in this industry. Considering the importance of livestock subsector in the agriculture sector, identifying and estimating the risk of livestock units are important.
Materials and Methods: The first step in activity risk management is to choose a model to identify and measure the risk of that activity. Risk assessment models are selected based on different factors such as the type of projects and their risks. In this regard, a concept discussed in the field of risk assessment in agricultural units is the value at risk (VaR) criteria. Value at risk is a statistical analysis that is mainly used in determining the quantitative risk of market and measures the most expected losses under normal conditions of the market and also during a certain period of time at a specific level of confidence (Radpour & Abeduh Tabrizi, 2009). This criterion summarizes the risk of portfolio in just one number under the value at risk measure. In the present study, the profit of each calf was calculated and the risk of weekly profit of a head of calf was determined by the value at risk method using Monte Carlo simulation for two time periods of 2004 to 2018 and 2013 to 2018 by @Risk add-in. Also, a multivariate regression was estimated by @Risk to analyze the sensitivity of the expected profit for each variable in the model. Parameters that have the most impact on the profit of each head of calf are identified as the most sensitive and important inputs related to the profit variable. Finally, the value at risk of the last cattle feeding period in the confidence level of 95% using weekly VaR at a level of 95% is predicted.
Results and Discussion: In this study, after calculating the profit of each Holstein calf, a linear regression was estimated to evaluate the standard deviation of the calculated profit on the time trend. This regression coefficients indicate that the standard deviation of the profit is increasing at the rate of 1622.9 Rials/week during the studied period. In other words, the risk of fattening activity has increased over time. To assess the risk of cattle fattening industry profits, price and performance variables were considered as expected variables in calculating the risk of profit. As the concept of value at risk is tied to the probability distribution of inputs and outputs, and its calculation process is equivalent to the probability distribution estimation process in the future period and also, considering that the Monte Carlo simulation is done on the repeated unstable and random inputs prices based on their probability distribution, finding the best distribution of inputs to produce random numbers is very important. Therefore, at first, the most important inputs in calculating profit were determined and then, their probability distributions were obtained according to the defined range of distribution using @Risk add-in. Because of the continuous nature of data, the Anderson-Darling test was used for verification of the obtained distributions. After Monte Carlo simulation and production of semi-random numbers for the desired inputs, 100000 simulated profits were obtained which the corresponding percentile of 90, 95, and 99% confidence intervals of the profit distribution were extracted as a weekly value at risk of per head Holstein calf. The results of estimating profit risk by VaR criteria showed that the weekly profit value at risk during 2004 to 2018 was 302108 Rials/week which is not a small figure for each calf profit during a week and presents the high profit risk of this industry. Also, the value at risk at the last 6 years of studied period was 600000 Rials. In conclusion, the results showed that weekly profit VaR increases 65292.07 Rials in each period. According to the predictions, the VaR of next period with a confidence coefficient of 95% will be 7197729 Rials. Also, the results of sensitivity analysis revealed that the most effective inputs on weekly profits were the prices changes of the calf, maize, and alfalfa inputs. Therefore, these inputs changes can also affect the risk of profit in cattle feeding units. In conclusion, controlling the living calf market as the most important input and veal market as the product of the fattening industry and corn, alfalfa, and soy markets has the most impact on the stability of the producers' profitability and ensures the profit of each head of livestock.
Conclusion: In this study, VaR criterion was used to assess the profit risk of cattle feeding units in Iran. According to the results, it is suggested to introduce the VaR criterion as an applied criterion in determining the risk to producers and investors of the agricultural sector. Therefore, it is necessary to provide continuous report of the value at risk amount of the industry by relevant organizations to help the investors and producers to clarify the status of the cattle feeding industry. Also, considering the changes in market conditions during different periods, finding the most important effective inputs on profit and controlling these inputs markets in order to control the producer’s profit fluctuations should be taken into account.

Keywords: Cattle feeding, Iran, Monte Carlo simulation, Profit risk, Value at risk

Introduction: Annually, large quantities of agricultural products are wasted and a lot of damage is done to the country's financial and food resources. The most important causes of this waste are related to the various sectors of transportation, packaging, storage, processing and distribution of agricultural products. One significant tool to increase in supply chain productivity and reduce logistics costs of the agricultural sector is to establish agricultural logistics centers. The current study seeks to identify a suitable area for the construction of an agricultural logistics center in Isfahan province. In this regard, criteria affecting the selection of locations for logistics centers (compensatory and non-compensatory) were first identified and then the process of locating was implemented in two separate phases. In the first phase, in order to identify potential site options for a logistics center within the province, geographical boundaries associated with non-compensatory criteria were excluded from the study. In the second phase, according to the mathematical model presented, the cost of establishing a logistics center was calculated in possible sites in terms of compensatory criteria and then relevant geographic data layers were developed and, at the end, all data layers were integrated.
Materials and Methods: This paper, first, studies the experimental literature in the field of successful logistics centers across the world as to identify criteria affecting the location of agricultural logistics centers in terms of non-compensatory grammatical (geological and environmental factors) and compensatory (measurable factors with quantitative values) criteria. Next, the process of locating is implemented during two stage. In the first stage, in order to identify possible sites for Logistics Park within the province, geographic data layers associated with non-compensatory criteria are gathered and the respective boundaries are excluded from the study. Note that in order to unify mapping units being studied with respect to 1: 2500000 scale map of analytical maps used, the province is divided into 4510 separate blocks of 25 Km2. For the second stage, based on the general framework of logistics activities, the spatial analysis is carried out for load flows (the production and consumption profiles) of agronomic, horticultural and livestock. According to the location theories in minimizing costs, a mathematical model is developed to compute costs of agricultural logistics center establishment per each 1440 blocks located in potential sites in terms of compensatory criteria and then under the Arc GIS software environment, all data layers related to these criteria are developed and integrated. The best option is to install a block logistics center having the minimum cost. Due to the large volume of data gathered as well as the variety of analysis and calculation units (blocks of 25 Km2), the C++ programmer is used to perform algebraic and matrix calculations. (Road and rail) distances applied in the model for different origins and destinations are calculated and extracted as the distance of the network through the Arc GIS software. Raw data of road bill of lading blocks have been obtained from the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization of Isfahan for the period between 2013 and 2018 for the commodity groups including agronomic, horticultural and livestock
Conclusion: The most optimal (least expensive) area for the establishments of an agricultural logistics center is located in the west of the urban complex of Isfahan and between the counties of Tiran and Karvan, Najafabad and Lenjan. The proposed area acts as an intermediary between the production centers of agronomic, horticultural and livestock products in the west of the province and the urban complex of Isfahan as a major consumer of agronomic, horticultural and livestock products. Proximity to the west-north freeway makes it possible to send the province's surplus products to the northern and eastern provinces of the country.

Keywords: Agricultural Logistics center, Compensatory and non-compensatory criteria, Locating, Spatial distribution of load flows, Supply chain

Introduction: Almost all rural communities in Iran are exclusively engaged with agriculture, therefore farming remains the largest source of income for them. Agriculture can be a major driver of growth for the Iranian economy. Therefore, increasing factor productivity in the agricultural sector is essential and by growing population rate, the need to invent more productive systems is highlighted. In this regards, smallholder agriculture, which is marked by low productivity should be transformed into agribusiness corporations which could foster the income and productivity of enterprises. Regarding the effective role of agribusiness corporations in enhancing agricultural productivity, and providing livelihoods and employment in rural communities, this study aimed at investigating the impact of location decision, social and human capital factors on the longevity of an agribusiness corporation called Khezri Agribusiness Corporation located in Khezri Township from Sothern Khorasan province. The reason for choosing Khezri Corporation as the case study was that according to surveys, this corporation has been one of the most successful agricultural associations for many years and has been able to create job opportunities to stop migration towards big cities. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to expendably investigate the factors affecting the continuity of an agribusiness corporation in Iran.
Materials and Methods: In order to achieve the objectives of the research, a well-structured questionnaire has been designed according to the literature review and using the opinions of university professors and experts of Khezri Agricultural Corporation. In this study, location factors, social capital and human capital are three main structures that are assessed by providing the information extracted from the questionnaire, and then, the impact of each structure on the continuity of the corporation's activity has been investigated based on indexing method. Each of the structures consists of different dimensions, and each dimension is measured by a number of items or questions using a Likert spectrum. Simple random sampling procedure was used to obtain the size of sample. At the end, the sample size was estimated at 45. Applying a systematic random sampling technique, the respondents were selected and the final questionnaire was distributed among them. At the primary analysis, 15 questionnaires were excluded from the analysis due to the large size of missing information. A total of 30 questionnaires were selected for further analysis. It is worth noting that in most cases, the questionnaires were tried to be completed in the form of interviews to increase the accuracy of the work.
Results and Discussion: Study findings suggest that location, social and human capital factors are at a high level of importance in the studied corporation. From the viewpoint of respondents, social capital had the greatest impact on the longevity of the corporation, followed by location and human capital. Furthermore, the communication dimension in social capital, the infrastructure factors in the location decision and the non-cognitive abilities in the human capital have been identified as the most influential components on the longevity of Khezri Agricultural Company's activities. Among the infrastructural factors, the criterion of "existence of basic resources" such as water wells, aqueducts, qanats, underground aquifers, etc. is the most effective criterion. According to 93.3% of respondents, this factor has a moderate to high impact on the corporation's location.
Conclusion: We recommend effective communication and planning in improvement of communication between organizational units and communication between managers and employees needs to be strengthened. Internalization of the organization's vision, mission, and goals, implementing a goal-based management plan, and applying the suggestion system in the organization and investing in formal and organized training are recommended as well to sustain the agribusiness corporations. It must be noted that given that the findings of this study are largely in line with the research background, its recommendations are expected to be applicable to the other agricultural business corporations in Iran. In addition, as we formerly discussed in the introduction of this paper, despite the benefits of agricultural corporations, few of these companies are currently active in the country. Therefore, analysis of factors affecting farmers’ decision to be involved in establishing agribusiness corporations should be the subject of future research.

Keywords: Agribusiness, Human capital, Longevity of Activity, Location decision, Social capital, South Khorasan province

Introduction: Water scarcity, improper management of water resources, excessive application of chemical inputs, and lack of proper cultivation patterns are present in agriculture. Lack of attention to these cases will inflict irreparable damage on the agricultural sector. Accordingly, attention to sustainable agriculture, conservation of water resources and prevention of improper use of chemical fertilizers are essential to reduce environmental pollution. In many cases, there is agreement on the river basin scale as a suitable spatial scale for analysis of water resources management. Tajan Basin with area of about 4187 km2 is one of the important parts of Caspian Sea Basin. The Current status of water resources in Tajan basin due to decrease in river runoff, has doubled the focus on the basin's water resources management.
Materials and Methods: In this study, with the help of positive mathematical planning and maximum entropy approach in GAMS, policies to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and water in selecting the appropriate cultivation pattern for 2017 in the Tajan basin were reviewed. Within the model, the farmer maximizes the expected utility of their stochastic income, subject to resource and non-negativity constraints. To include both market and yields uncertainty, we calculated profit covariance matrices by using national averages for prices and yields for the 2018–2009 period. The resource constraints include land, water and fertilizer. Selected irrigated crops in the region include rice, wheat, rapeseed and corn. In the present study for simulating farmers' response, reduction scenarios including 5%, 10% and 15% of available water and fertilizer are considered. There are also two environmental sustainability index that are related to amount of the used fertilizer and water. The smaller the index is, the greater sustainability is provided in crop production.
Results and Discussion: Calibration of PMP pattern with maximum entropy approach showed that there is no difference between the value of target function, inputs and cultivation level in the current situation and calibration pattern. In all water reduction scenarios, the total cultivation area decreased. The results indicate that the agriculture in the basin is vulnerable due to changes in available water. The 15% decrease in water resources causes a significant decrease of 15/903% of the cultivation area. Cultivation area under fertilizer reduction scenarios has been lower in comparison with water scenarios, and so reduces the used fertilizer and increases soil conservation and water stock. In reduction scenarios of water and fertilizer, land reallocation is reduced due to less reduction in expected utility of farmers. In water scarcity conditions and lack of fertilizer, rice and wheat crops have higher economic benefits per hectare than other crops. The sustainability index for used fertilizer in all reduction scenarios of water and fertilizer is lower than the current pattern. Also the index of the used water in the PMP model is lower than the baseline in the region that decrease was 0.018%, 0.144% and 0.319% at three levels of 5%, 10% and 15%, respectively. In the scenario of 15% reduction of fertilizer, land allocation and economic benefits decreased by 13.83% and 0.034%, respectively. However used fertilizer and water index improved to 1.348% and 0.319%, respectively. Therefore, improving the water and fertilizer application index has a higher priority than reducing the expected utility in the region.
Conclusion: In the current cropping pattern, farmers do not pay attention to the environmental characteristics and sustainability of the region. While with the policies of reducing the quantity and price of chemical inputs and introducing different types of sustainability indicators, it is possible to develop a cultivation model. In addition to earning the necessary profit, it enables the optimal use of fertilizer and water inputs. Changing the behavior of farmers compared to the current pattern of input consumption requires strong motivation and reasons. Therefore, water quality tests and soil decomposition in the region, as well as providing appropriate formulas for optimal use of chemical fertilizers is needed. Extension services to increase people's awareness is a good solution for optimal use of inputs and increase the level of cultivation and farmers' profits.

Keywords: Expected utility, Positive mathematical programming, Sustainability index, Tajan basin

Introduction: Ajichay basin is one of the largest agricultural areas and water consumption in Urmia Lake basin. During the recent years, the impact of climate change on one hand, and human factors on the other hand, have changed Ajichay basin to a center of crisis as it has lost its efficiency in supplying water for Urmia Lake. Having the main branches of Ajichay, Sarab county has a great role in crop production and therefore agricultural water consumption compared to other counties around the basin. Therefore, managing water consumption in Sarab County is suggested to resolve the decreased quality and quantity of water in Ajichay basin. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to investigate the impact of climate and water management scenarios on water resources, cropping pattern, yield, and profits of farmers in Sarab County.
Material and Methods: To achieve the study aims, the hydro-economic model was used. In the economic section, quadratic risk programming model and in the hydrological section, the WEAP-MABIA model was used. The purpose in quadratic risk programming model is to maximize the expected farmers’ utility to some technical and structural restrictions. Maximum expected utility of farmers which is calculated by subtracting the risk element from the net income for each crop. MABIA uses a two-part crop coefficient. In the dual crop coefficient approach, the effects of crop transpiration and soil evaporation are determined separately. Two coefficients are used: the basal crop coefficient (Kcb) to describe plant transpiration, and the soil water evaporation coefficient (Ke) to describe evaporation from the soil surface. The current study applied HadCM3, as the general circulation model. LARS-WG was used for downscaling climatic generator and producing rainfall, radiation, and minimum and maximum temperature in a station under A2, B1, and A1B emission scenarios. The period 1987-2018 was used as the base and the future considered period was 2018-2050. All required variables such as information about input values, production quantities, and economic information were collected from 210 questionnaires filled by farmers during 2018 which were selected through stratified random sampling.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that the average rainfall decreased in the range of 21-38% under the emission scenarios of A2, B1, and AIB during 2018-2050 period. In the next period of 2018-2050, the average annual temperature will also increase by 2.5 °C compared to the baseline period under A2 scenario. The results of simulations revealed that the crop yields would undergo a decrease after climate change scenarios. The most considerable yield reduction belongs to A2 scenario in which potato will have the highest yield reduction of 17%. The crop yields of barley and wheat shows a slight reduction. Thus, these two products have larger cropping area in the climatic scenarios. The results of climate change indicate a diminishing trend in available water and water supply reliability for agricultural purposes. The available water for irrigation areas had 21.92% decrease after applying climate change scenario. The mean for water supply reliability in the sub-basin decrease from 84.93% to 62.35% if the future years continue to have a decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature. By applying the scenario of agricultural water reduction along with climate change scenario, the profit in each region will decrease compared to the reference scenario. The highest reduction rate belongs to Asbforushan 2 area with 28% compared to the reference scenario. The profit in all the sub-bases had a rise after increasing irrigation efficiency scenario. Thus, applying increasing efficiency scenario, in addition to more useful and efficient use of allocated water, will also increase farmers' profits which offer a better situation than the scenario of reducing the share of agricultural water. Among the studied crops, bean had the highest reduction in cultivation, which stemmed from its high-water requirement. However, potato also had a high water requirement compared to bean but maintained a high cropping area due to higher gross profits. Findings of the current study revealed that wheat and barley had more resistance against the effects of climate change and shifting the patterns of cropping was an adaptive strategy for coping with the effects of climate change. Climate change reduces the labor employment. As Implementing A2 scenario results in a 14.48% decrease in the average of agricultural employment in the area. The agricultural water reduction scenario alone results in 5.9% decrease in labor, whereas the increasing irrigation efficiency scenario has an 8.9% decrease. Applying the agricultural water reduction scenario along with climate change reduces the employment by 17.2% in the region by reducing the area under cultivation of crops that require a lot of labor. The increasing irrigation efficiency along with climate change scenario also results in a 20.9% reduction in labor employment.
Conclusion: Overall, the findings of the current study revealed that without changing the management strategies there would be a considerable reduction in crop yield in near future. Optimizing management methods, selection of right time for crop cultivation, optimized harvest, studying the feasibility of cultivating crops with shorter growth period and using cultivars with higher yield are the effective ways to confront the effects of climate change. The analysis of scenarios revealed that policies alone cannot compensate for water problems and there is a need for plenty of scenario for optimum results.

Keywords: Ajichay basin, Hydro-economic model, Quadratic risk programming, WEAP-MABIA

Introduction: A common definition of agro-processing industry refers to the subset of manufacturing that processes raw materials and intermediate products derived from agricultural sector. Thus, agro-processing industry means transforming products originating from agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Indeed, it includes a very large part of agricultural production undergone some degree of transformation between harvesting and final use. The industries that use agricultural, fishery and forest products as raw materials comprise a very varied group. They range from simple preservation (such as sun drying) and operations closely related to harvesting the production, by modern, capital-intensive methods, of such articles as textiles, pulp and paper agriculture and industry have traditionally been viewed as two separate sectors both in terms of their characteristics and their role in economic growth. Agriculture has been considered the hallmark of the first stage of development, while the degree of industrialization has been considered to be the most relevant indicator of a country’s progress along the development path. Moreover, the proper strategy for growth has often been conceived as one of a more or less gradual shift from agriculture to industry, with the onus on agriculture to finance the shift in the first stage. Development of complementary industries and agriculture can be a good way to prevent injuries and to increase the value-added agricultural products. Given that in developing countries, especially in Iran, almost one-fourth of agricultural products are wasted only due to lack of storage facilities and conserving industries. Agro-processing industries, as a part of rural development process, can play a great role in preventing the waste of agricultural products, producing added value products, increasing rural families’ income, improving productivity, and increasing the share of industrial employment in rural areas. Many of the industries using agricultural raw materials have in fact those characteristics that make them particularly suitable for the circumstances of many developing countries. Where the raw material represents a large proportion of total costs, its availability at a reasonable cost can often offset such disadvantages such as lack of infrastructure or skilled labor. Furthermore, for many agro industries, a small plant may be economically efficient, which is another important factor in developing countries where the domestic market is limited by low purchasing power and sometimes by the small size of the market itself. Therefore, this research aimed at the overall Design Strategic Model for Development of Complementary Date Conversion Industries in Khuzestan Province. Since Khuzestan province is the first date producer in Iran.
Methodology: This research was conducted to compile a strategic model (TWOS) in developing industry of date palm complementary and processing in Khuzestan province. In this research, firstly, by using analytical studies and literature review, the subject of the four SWOT points including: 7 weaknesses, 7 opportunities, 7 strengths, and 6 threats were identified, and then were prioritized by the AHP technique. The statistical population of this study included experts in relevant organizations that 24 of them were selected, purposefully as a sample for the study. Data processing was performed using SWOT-AHP technique and using Expert choice software.
Results and Discussion: Findings showed that in evaluating the criteria, weaknesses, threats, strengths, and opportunities were ranked from best to worst, respectively, which indicates the dominance of risky space over useful space. Furthermore, the results showed that among the strengths, “reduction of date waste and its optimal use in order to increase the economic power of the regions” was the most important point. In addition, among the weaknesses, “technology weakness, and inability to compete with date producing countries” was the most prominent point. For opportunities; “changing in composition of export products, and getting rid of single-product and bulk export”, and also for the threat points,” reducing investment in agricultural sector and developing date palm cultivation” were the most influential points. Furthermore, in prioritizing strategic areas, it was concluded that the first strategy was WT (defense strategy), the second strategy was WO (adaptive strategy). Furthermore ST strategy (contingency strategy) was third, and finally SO strategy (invasion strategy) was the last strategy. Considering the predominance of hazardous space over useful space, it is recommended to pay special attention to this issue, because neglecting it in Khuzestan province, as a center of date production, would cause irrecoverable risks in long term.

Keywords: Industrialization, Rural industries, Strategic model, Sustainable livelihood, SWOT-AHP analysis

Introduction: In the current dynamic export market environment, understanding the market and its developments and trying to meet customer needs in the face of changing it, is another key factor in strengthening the performance of export firms. Therefore, the proper use of dynamic export capabilities is one of the most widely used strategies for the internationalization of companies. Saffron is one of the strategic products and the most important agricultural product in Iran, which has a special importance in terms of non-oil exports. Iran has the highest potential for saffron exports in the world, but statistics show that the export of Iranian saffron in bulk and lack of saffron processing in the country has caused the low added value of this product. Therefore in spite of having a comparative advantage and even in some cases an absolute advantage for saffron production, because of not paying attention to export capabilities and using its advantages as a competitive advantage in exports, the share of exporters has reduced. Moreover, in this article, we have tried to investigate the effect of dynamic export capabilities of companies active in the field of saffron exports on creating a competitive advantage and improving performance.
Materials and Methods: This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. In terms of time horizon, it is cross-sectional and in year 2019. The statistical population is the commercial units active in the field of saffron export in Khorasan province. Morgan table has been used to determine the sample size, which according to Morgan table and the number of statistical population, the minimum sample size is equal to 120 managers of business units. The questionnaire was used as a data collection tool. In this study, the conceptual model was tested using the partial least squares method and SPSS and PLS software were used to analyze the data.
Results and Discussion: The findings indicate a significant positive effect of export potential capabilities on competitive advantage directly and indirectly through export knowledge. Competitive advantage also has a significant effect on performance. The findings of this study show managers what components of dynamic export capabilities, export knowledge, competitive advantage and performance should be considered to improve their performance. This study explains to managers the fact that by investing in export dynamic capabilities, not only they do not lose, but they also gain a competitive advantage through improved performance. Given that the ultimate goal of most organizations is to improve the performance and satisfaction of their customers, and dynamic export capabilities, export knowledge, competitive advantage and performance lead to achieving these goals. The results of this research to the company's managers Export saffron exporters in particular and other managers in the country in general will help to take a step towards improving the dynamic export capabilities, and thus increase the competitive advantage of their organization and thus improve the performance of the organization. The findings of this study show managers what components of dynamic export capabilities, export knowledge, competitive advantage and performance should be considered to improve their performance.
Conclusion: Today, growth of export is key for governments to recreate the economy. In almost all developing countries, the issue of export development is at the forefront of government priorities and policies. Saffron is one of the most strategic and important agricultural products in Iran, which is of special importance in terms of non-oil exports. Exports are the most important indicator in the global development of companies, as well as countries. Therefore, export market orientation and competitive advantage are important to increase export performance. So, managers and organizational officials with an emphasis on the relationship between dynamic export capabilities, export knowledge, competitive advantage and performance in export companies active in the field of saffron should be identified by recognizing customer needs to improve dynamic export capabilities. Managers must take steps to improve dynamic export capabilities and create a competitive advantage by identifying customer needs and requirements. In this regard, it is recommended to the active managers of export companies in the field of saffron, along with conducting research and identifying dynamic export capabilities, to strengthen them.

Keywords: Competitive advantage, Export dynamic capabilities, Export knowledge, Performance
JEL classification: M3, M31, Q13

Introduction: The resistive economy, in the sense of managing the current situation in the country, minimizes the risks. In other words, establishment of the necessary institution in Iranian economy by using a set of policies, laws, and executive measures in such a way to minimize its risk against harmful shocks and disturbances, especially foreign and international ones, would provide the ground for the country to achieve sustainable economic progress. One of the most important methods in this regard, in creating the infrastructure of a resistive economy, is development of the agricultural sector. In fact, due to the distinctive features of the agricultural sector, this sector can be considered as the driving force of the economy within the framework of the resistive economy. To achieve such an economy, the challenges and potentials facing this sector must be identified while determining optimal investment for the basic sectors. Due to the capabilities of agricultural production in Mazandaran province, in this study, for identifying the problems and opportunities in the subsectors of agriculture and horticulture, a type of SWOT analysis was used in which relative weights are calculated through a linear mathematical programming model. Finally, by using the QSPM approach, prioritization strategies were developed for each subsector.
Material and Methods: In the SWOT analysis, the AHP approach was used to extract the pairwise comparisons of internal and external factors from the opinions of the interviewed experts in the subsectors of agriculture and horticulture. SWOT analysis has been used to determine strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, and the combination of linear programming. Therefore, AHP approach is used to calculate the weight for criteria and alternatives at each level. In this research, a two-step linear programming method has been used to calculate the priority vector. In the first step, according to the pairwise comparison matrix, a formulation that provides a consistency limit is used. In the second step, according to the compatibility limits obtained in the previous step, for calculating marginal weights of the criteria, another linear programming model is used. After calculating the relative weights of each of the components of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, as well as determining some strategies, using expert opinions, the QSPM approach has been used to prioritize strategies. For this purpose, the attractiveness coefficients of each strategy were extracted according to the Swot components and by multiplying the attractiveness coefficients by the relative weights, the total score for each Swot component was calculated for each strategy and finally with the total score of the Swot components, a total score for each strategy was calculated. Finally, Excel and GAMS software were used to estimate the results.
Results and Discussion: According to the results of SWOT analysis in the agriculture and horticulture sector, among the important strengths in Mazandaran province, this subsector can be ranked first in the production of various products, variety of climatic conditions and suitable water resources, the existence of fertile and suitable lands and variety of products. In contrast to the above strengths, weaknesses such as traditional and small units of exploitation, lack of guaranteed purchase and non-payment of debts on time by the government and cooperatives, low irrigation efficiency and low productivity of inputs (land, labor, etc.), lack of proper marketing system and the weak role of the government are some of important challenges in the subsectors of agriculture and horticulture in Mazandaran province. The opportunities facing the subsectors of agriculture and horticulture include the existence of ports and export terminals, existence of suitable fields for the construction of processing industries, improvement and establishment of fruit and vegetable terminals, and the existence of agricultural sub-graduates. The most important factors that threaten the activity of subsectors of agriculture and horticulture are related to the problems of financing and bank interest rates, land-use change and land trade, excessive import of agricultural and horticultural products, and small number of related processing industries. The results of prioritizing strategies through the QSPM approach also showed that according to aggressive strategies, in the subsectors of agriculture and horticulture, strategies like "Increased aggressive racial reform research ", "Establishment of fruit and vegetable export terminals" and "Development of processing industries", in the subsector of livestock  strategies like "Export development and entry into global markets", "Product and market development", "Establishment of facilities for export to the Caspian littoral states" and "Improvement of livestock breeds to increase production" , and in the subsector of fisheries "Aquaculture Development", "Development of Fisheries Industry", "Private and public sector support and investment" and "Establishment of facilities for export to international markets" are among strategies for strengthening the economy of the province and the country that can be considered.
Conclusion: According to the results of this study, it is suggested that more attention in terms of capital support, and regional policies should be given to the subsectors of agriculture and horticulture in this situation. Also, appropriate measures should be taken to increase the productivity of the agricultural sector in line with the resistance economy. It is also suggested that solutions such as guaranteed purchase, providing facilities for small and job-creating projects, use of agricultural researchers and graduates for improving and implementing of racial reform research, support and development of processing industry of agricultural products, market development and increasing exports of agricultural products, should be used.

Keywords: Development Strategies, QSPM, Mathematical Programming, Agriculture and Horticulture, Mazandaran

Introduction: During the last decades, climate change has been highly disjointed. Recent studies on climate change has approached the assessment of impacts of this phenomenon and adaptation strategies under biophysical or social perspectives. In the field of agriculture and water resources, most assessments have been based on biophysical modelling focusing on the agronomic dimension or the hydrological dimension. Therefore, integrate biophysical and social aspects looking at environmental and human contexts are vital for investigation of climate change and adaptation strategies effects. In line with this, varied types of integrated modelling frameworks have been developed to address the different scales (from the crop to the river basin) and the different dimensions of climate change, water and agriculture (hydrological, agronomic, socio economic). Water resources in the Halil-Rud river basin are likely to be seriously affected by climate change in the form of increased water scarcity and more frequent droughts which leads to conflicts among different water users and uses, especially between agricultural sector and Jazmourian wetland services. However, because of the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of water management and climate change, it is needed to integrate tools for the analysis of impacts and adaptation. In line with this, current study presents an economic – hydrological model to evaluate potential effects of climate change and adaptation strategies on irrigated agriculture and to solve or mitigate water resources conflicts among different water users and uses in studied basin.
Materials and Methods: This study, combines a farm-based economic multi-objectives optimization model with the hydrologic model water evaluation and planning (WEAP) which can represent the socio-economic, agronomic and hydrologic systems in a spatially-explicit manner covering all dimensions and scales relevant to climate change. To this end, current study was organized in two sections. In the first section, the effects of a climate change under A2 scenario and balanced groundwater withdrawal (sustainable groundwater use) on hydrological and economic performance of basin level were investigated using an economic, agronomic and hydrologic model. Finally, adopting suitable adaptive strategies on hydrological and economic conditions were evaluated using that model. A2 scenario is primarily simulated through the hydrologic model, as it represents physical characteristics of the crop and water systems, through changes in climate variables. On the other hand, adaptation strategies that affect human behavior are firstly simulated by the economic multi-objectives model. The hydro-economic simulation model is started with the multi-objectives model run which include economic and hydrological objectives. Then, Using the MABIA method and WEAP irrigation water requirements would be calculated, allocating water to crops depending on water availability and established priorities, and estimating crop yields would be done. After the first economic-hydrologic model simulation, there is a second economic-hydrologic iteration. The economic model uses WEAP results on water delivered to irrigation communities (water availability constraints at farm level), crop yields (used to calculate the gross margin per crop) and irrigation water requirements under the simulated climate scenario and adaptation strategies to simulate farmers' adjustment of cropping patterns to a new optimal land allocation.
Result and Discussion: results indicates the multi-dimensional effects of climate change and adaptation strategies and show the large potential of integrated hydro-economic models for representing the multi-scale processes related to climate change and water management. The analysis of decisions taken at farm level has been proven to be necessary, as crop model results capture the potential of farm level adaptation to mitigate the damaging effects of climate change and these are relevant to climate change adaptation as highlighted by Reidsma et al. (2010). Results for the climate change under A2 scenario and balanced groundwater withdrawal scenario (combined scenario) on status of hydrological and economic in the level basin showed that crops yield, areas with available water and water demand reliability would decrease, while crops net water demand and areas water unmet demand would increase and farmers’ income would decrease between 10 to 37 percent for upstream, between 24 to 47 percent for middle and between 30 to 50 percent for downstream units in long –term horizon in comparison to base scenario. But, adopting suitable adaptive strategies and measures could mitigate the effects of climate change on hydrological conditions specially for downstream areas and economic conditions including upstream areas. Finally, combined suitable water transmission system, modern irrigation technologies, saffron crop cultivation and deficit irrigation of some crops adaptive strategies simultaneously indicated that unmet water demand significantly decreases and the total gross margin of agricultural sector increases by 68% in comparison to base scenario under climate change.

Keywords: Adaptation strategies, Climate change, Economic-hydrological model, Halil-Rud river basin

Introduction: Mushrooms have valuable nutrients and physiological traits which has made it a suitable food for households. Among the various mushrooms, the King Oyster (Pleurotus eryngii) is considered as the best species among Oyster mushrooms, due to its superiority in stem and cap strength, thickness and fleshiness of its white stem, long shelf life, good taste and aroma, and numerous nutritional and medicinal properties. In addition, the edible-medicinal mushroom of the King Oyster, due to its very low moisture content and high strength between the stem and the cap, has a very long shelf life compared to other mushrooms and is therefore introduced as a high durability product. The King Oyster can remain fresh for 15 to 18 days after harvesting in suitable storage conditions. Also, this mushroom which is produced without application of any fertilizer or toxins is widely used as a healthy food, and in many countries, including Korea, China and Japan, it is facing widespread consumer demand. Therefore, considering the numerous characteristics of King Oyster and its substitution with Button mushroom, the aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting household preferences for its replacement with Button mushroom.
Methodology: The study population of this research includes households living in Mashhad. As the edible-medicinal King Oyster mushroom is a special mushroom, this product is distributed only in some specific areas due to its unique features. Therefore, the Convenience sampling method was used. Sample size was determined based on the Morgan Table, and the highest volume, 400 samples, was selected to accurately assess consumer behavior. Also, the questionnaire was completed in 2019. Due to the sequential nature of household consumption preferences, the ordered logit model has been carried out to achieve the research objectives. The ordered logit model is a useful tool when the researcher seeks to analyze the behavior of consumers (households) in different groups.
Results and Discussion: In the present study, after creating a consumption experience for households that had not previously consumed the King Oyster, empirical findings showed that a significant percentage of households (47.5%) preferred to substitute the King Oyster for Button mushroom, and only 12.5% of households had low tendency to do that. The Brant test results showed that the values of the status parameters for all the dependent variables were constant and uniform, and in this respect, it is permissible to apply the Ordered Logit model. Our results indicated that variables such as household income, importance index of pre- and post-cooking appearance characteristics, food and medicine awareness index, sales promotion index, product accessibility index, and familiarity with the King Oyster had a positive and statistically significant effect on the probability of consumption. On the contrary, variables such as age of the head of household and price index of the King Oyster had negative and significant effect on the probability of being in groups with higher levels of consumption preferences.
Conclusion and Suggestions: This study aimed to investigate the factors affecting household preferences for its replacement with Button mushroom. For this purpose, ordered logit model was applied in the households’ consumption in Mashhad city. Based on the results, the familiarity with the King Oyster mushroom had positive and significant effect on household consumption preferences, indicating that cognition and awareness of this product will increase household preference for substituting this mushroom for button mushroom. Thus, it is suggested that marketing policies and programs focus on introducing this product. In addition, creating a consumer experience for households initially led to familiarity and ultimately to the preference of the King Oyster rather than the button mushroom. Therefore, it is strongly recommended to create a consumer experience for households that have not yet consumed this product before. This can be done through King Oyster distribution stands as a useful tool in a well-designed program.

Keywords: Household consumer preferences, Ordered Logit model, The king oyster mushroom

Introduction: The move towards industrialization of cities, population growth, deforestation and in general non-optimal and incorrect use of natural resources, etc. has caused the environment to face a serious crisis. Environmental destruction will have adverse consequences both in the short and long term. Air pollution, extinction of animal species, are among these consequences. Therefore nowadays, environmental protection issue is considered to be so important that has caused fundamental changes in behavior, interest, and preferences of the human societies. So all over the world, many people are interested in having green behavior, both in their personal and work life and in their relationships with others. In this regard, consumers and customers of products and services have obliged organizations to shift their approach to a sustainable one. Accordingly, having a green brand and increasing the value of green brand in today's world is a competitive advantage. The current research thus aimed at investigating the behavioral factors (green brand image, green trust, green satisfaction, green loyalty, green affect) influencing the green brand equity in the food industry.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the researcher attempts to identify the effect of behavioral factors on green brand equity in the food industry. Accordingly, the research method in this study is descriptive-survey. In addition, necessary information from library and field studies was collected. The subjects of this study were people living in Tehran, so 480 cases were selected through cluster random sampling. In fact, in this study, the second, fifth, thirteenth and twenty-second districts of Tehran were selected and 4 neighborhoods were chosen from each district and a research questionnaire was distributed in those neighborhoods. In this study, a standard questionnaire was used to measure variables. The validity and reliability of the research instrument were also assessed through construct validity and Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability. The results showed that the validity and reliability of the research tool were desirable. Also, the required data from the statistical population were collected from July 2018 to January 2019. The data was analyzed by SPSS and PLS software.
Results and Discussion: The results of descriptive data analysis showed that the highest frequency in terms of gender is related to women, the highest frequency in terms of age is related to between 25-31, the highest frequency in terms of education is related to master, the highest frequency in terms of income is related to 2 million, the highest frequency in terms of knowledge of green brand is related to average, the highest frequency in terms of the use of green brand is related to average and finally the highest frequency in terms of choosing the preferred eco-friendly brand from the respondents is related to MC. In order to test the hypotheses, first the normality of data distribution was measured that for this purpose, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used. Since the calculated values for each of the variables were less than 0.05, it can be said that the distribution of research data was not normal. To evaluate the research model, the goodness of fit index was used and the calculations showed that the model fit is strong. Finally hypothesis test results showed that green brand image (0.399), green trust (0.199), green satisfaction (-0.157), and green loyalty (0.166) had impact on green brand equity, and the impact of green effect on green brand equity from the viewpoint of the research population was not confirmed. Additionally, it was concluded that behavioral factors (0.578) have effect on green brand equity in this research.
Conclusion: In general, it can be said that, green issues of individuals and organizations around the world has become inevitable due to the current environmental conditions, so ignoring it will have negative consequences such as air pollution, decreased soil quality, reduced revenue, reduced customers, reduced brand equity, isolation and finally the bankruptcy of the organization and failure to achieve sustainable development. But this while supporting the principles of the environmental subjects and its promotion in the organization and all its products and services make the stakeholders of organization aware of the goodwill of the organization about carrying out his social responsibility subjects. So by promoting it, loyalty and commitment of the stakeholders will increase and at last the green brand equity of the organization will improve. In this regard, it is recommended for organizations in the food industry to implement environmental performance policies in their field to gain a competitive advantage in the market and use the results of related research to implement them.

Keywords: Green brand equity, Green trust, Green satisfaction, Green brand affect

Introduction: The increase in water demand and the expansion of water pollution due to the development of agricultural, urban and industrial activities have led to a serious risk of water quality in many places. Therefore, its rational and logical management has become very difficult and complicated. In recent decades, concerns about water pollution from agricultural activities and its consequences have been growing. The existing regulations are not sufficient to limit the water pollution of the agricultural sector and to achieve the desired environmental consequences. Thus, economic tools have increasingly been proposed as an affordable way to limit pollution. Therefore, the side effects of water consumption in agriculture are vital issues for controlling and managing water pollution. The recent challenges in water resources of the Zayandehroud basin have led to the fact that this area has not been safe from water pollution and also the supply of high quality water is a major challenge in this basin. Therefore, providing a purposeful cropping pattern by reducing the side effects of water pollution caused by agricultural activities for the Zayandehroud basin can play an effective role in the quantitative and qualitative management of watershed resources.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the water resources management system of Zayandehroud basin has been modeled based on a multi-objective programming model. This model includes hydrological functions, land allocation, resource transfer and exploitation capacities, and the objective function is to maximize the net present value of the total benefits at the basin level. Also, the amount of water available in different sub-basins, the crop yield and net water requirements was simulated using the WEAP model for the 2040 horizon. This data was used as input in the economic model. In the next step, the side effects of water pollution are estimated and internalized in the economic model using permissible limit of water pollution in constraint and the cost of water pollution in the objective function. The mechanism designed to internalize the side effects of water pollution is simulated using the SWAT model and added to the integrated water management model of the basin as environmental constraint and cost of nitrate losses in objective function. Therefore, by comparing the results of these two models, it is possible to evaluate the internalization of the side effects of water pollution on farmers' livelihoods and the cropping pattern in the basin.
Results and Discussion: Cropping pattern under basic conditions was applied in WEAP software for different regions. Yield and net water requirements of products were simulated using MABIA tools. The results were extracted by each region and then estimated at basin level. The results of the optimal cropping pattern after simulating the hydrological parameters of the basin showed that the gross margin compared to the current conditions for Najafabad, North Mahyar, Lenjanat, Kuhpayeh-Segzi, Isfahan-Borkhar and Ben-Saman regions was 14, 5, 15,18, 15 and 20 million Rials per hectare, respectively. The increase in the share of irrigation technologies in the economic model compared to the current model for Najafabad, Lenjanat, Kuhpayeh-Segzi, Isfahan-Borkhar and Ben-Saman regions was 40, 57, 35, 45 and 91 percent, respectively.Therefore, it can be expected that by changing the cropping pattern and also increasing the use of new irrigation systems, it is possible to improve the livelihood of farmers in the basin according to the current and future hydrological conditions. But these changes have increased the side effects of pollution on the basin. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a model that, in addition to improving the benefit, also reduces the cost of nitrate losses. The results of the optimal bioeconomic model indicate that with the application of this model, the rate of gross margin and the cost of nitrate losses have been obtained at 58 and 28 million Rials per hectare, respectively. Comparison of this model and the optimal economic model shows that farmers' gross margin and nitrate losses have decreased about 3 and 2 million Rials per hectare, respectively. Comparison of the current and optimal bioeconomic model also shows that while improving the gross margin by 12 million Rials, the rate of nitrate losses below the allowable level in the basin can be realized.
Conclusion: Zayandehroud basin is one of the most important watersheds in the country, which is facing the challenge of quantitative and qualitative water shortages. The main purpose of this study is to quantitatively and qualitatively manage water resources and evaluate the consequences of internalizing the side effects of water pollution on this type of management. The results of the study showed that using the optimal economic cropping pattern will increase the farmers' gross margin and improve their livelihoods.  Also, comparing the results of the economic model with the multi-objective bioeconomic model showed that considering the side effects of water resources pollution in some areas is effective and in others is ineffective. Therefore, it is recommended that in future studies, considering the effective role of different policies in the field of water resources quality, the effects of different scenarios of climate change, drought, population growth, etc. be examined and analyzed.

Keywords: Hydrological simulation, Integrated bioeconomic model, Optimal cropping pattern, Water pollution

Introduction: Cornelian Cherry (Cornus mas L.) is one of the most important medicinal and organic products in East Azerbaijan Province which is recognized as the most cultivated area of this crop in Kaleybar county (More than 135 ha of gardens). While due to lack of proper marketing management and lack of complementary industries, it has failed to find its true place in improving the productivity of its producers and economic boom of the region. Influence of brokers in different dimensions of the market and especially the possible future product prices, financial needs and low knowledge of producers in relation to the correct marketing principles and conditions of rapid product corruption are considered in order to maximize profits. What is certain is that brokers, if the right conditions arise, are considered as one of the determining and influential factors in creating a selling price bubble. The influence of brokers on marketing can be explained via 4Ps marketing, which is the most common and at the same time the most widely used type of marketing mix in the field of marketing of agricultural products. Therefore, the aim of the study was to analyze the market structure and marketing methods of this product (4Ps components, marketing routes and marketing methods) with emphasis on the role of brokers in marketing producers in Kaleybar county (in 2018) to create optimal knowledge of the dimensions of brokers' influence in the market.
Materials and Methods: The statistical population included all active producers of Cornelian Cherry in Kaleybar county (N=1010), which sample size was determined by multistage sampling method with the help of Bartlett's et al. (2001) table. First, five major production areas (Cornelian Cherry gardens) were selected from the research areas. Then, in each region, a number of gardens-villages (7 gardens-villages) were determined randomly and among them, 280 producers (n=280) were selected and interviewed by appropriate proportion. In calculating the reliability of the study instrument, Cronbach's alpha method was used, which confirmed the use of study variables (coefficients above 0.7). For content and appearance validity of the study instrument, suggestions and corrections of a panel of faculty members in economics and agricultural management of Mohaghegh Ardabili University, experts of agricultural jihad organization of the province and executive experts of Kaleybar County were considered. To determine the dominant market direction, the producers were asked to state or outline the available paths in Cornelian Cherry market from the producer to the end customer. Then, by examining the frequency of responses, the dominant path was determined.
Results and Discussion: The findings showed that the preferred method of marketing among producers was to sell in farm to brokers. Also, the first priority of the influence of 4Ps components from brokers was related to the price component. According to the findings, dominant direction of market was achieved as "producer→ brokers→ wholesalers→ factories and workshops→ retailers→ consumer". Also, the most important distinguishing variables of producers based on the amount of transactions with brokers were the variables of the history of training courses (0.735), The amount of income from other economic activities (-0.640), and the garden distance from the sales market (0.605). Therefore, while emphasizing on educational programs, with the prosperity of Cornelian Cherry production cooperatives in the region, it is possible to organize the warehousing and transportation management of the produced crop to the market. Also, planning for government supporting purchases and creating a support office for Cornelian Cherry marketing in the region could diminish the role of brokers in the dominant market direction.
Conclusion: The predominant path of Cornelian Cherry marketing in the region often begins with brokers (sometimes up to a few brokers) and reaches at the end to the consumer in a few steps, and brokers are effective in determining the price of the product. The brokers appear to have full control of the Cornelian Cherry market in the studied region and they always have the upper hand in economic bargaining with producers and buyers; and control the pricing in the market. Also, the lack of knowledge of producers of Cornelian Cherry in various fields of marketing, including customer acquisition, advertising, storage, the right sales routes and new marketing methods, are major obstacle to the prosperity of Cornelian Cherry marketing in the region. The special characteristics of production and sale of Cornelian Cherry (such as seasonality, corruption, lack of insurance and government facilities in the region and problems related to proper storage and maintenance facilities and knowledge and lack of industrial and semi-industrial processing and conversion workshops in the region) seem to lead producers to trade with brokers. Meanwhile, the existence of many intermediaries between the producer and the consumer also increase the basic marketing problems of this product. Rising prices, through the number of brokers and intermediaries in the marketing paths, will also have a negative impact on the marketing boom of the region and improve the productivity of Cornelian Cherry production. It is obvious that laying the government financial and executive support for the construction of processing industries and production of Cornelian Cherry in the region can reduce the negative and active presence of brokers in the dominant marketing paths, and increase the profitability of Cornelian Cherry producers in the region. Therefore, in order to improve Cornelian Cherry marketing in the region, the study findings introduce a clear path for the gradual elimination of the position of brokers.

Keywords: Brokers, Cornelian Cherry, Marketing, Medicinal herbs

Introduction: The potential impacts of climate change on water resources and food security are receiving growing attention especially in regions that face growing challenges like water demands for agricultural, domestic and environmental uses. The anticipated climate change are likely to impact water resources (surface water and groundwater) by altering precipitation patterns and change in nature of rainfall regimes. Apart from the effects on water availability, climate change is expected to adversely affect crop productivity, food security and food producers' income. Climate changes could affect the four dimensions of food security; food availability, access, utilization, and stability. Therefore, this study aims at investigating the economic effects of climate change on the agricultural sector (including the yield of crops, water resources, food security and profitability) in Hamadan-Bahar plain. The hypothesis tested in this research is that climate change has negative impacts on the agricultural sector in the study area and it is necessary to present solutions to reduce these effects. Accordingly, the question answered in this study is whether climate changes in the region reduces crop yields, the profitability of the agricultural sector, and aggravate the scarcity of water resources. For this purpose in this study, the effects of climate change in different scenarios on regional cultivation pattern, basic food cultivation pattern, gross profit of farmers, physical and economic productivity of water and food security in Hamedan-Bahar plain have been investigated and then various suggestions to these problems have been presented.
Materials and Methods: For this purpose, the physiological, hydrological and meteorological aspects of the problem were integrated into an economic model and the changes in cultivation pattern of the plain were projected in counterfactual climatic scenarios. Accordingly, the outputs of the HadCM3 model under the scenarios of B1 (optimistic) and A2 (pessimistic) were utilized for the fourth report; additionally, the outputs of the ensemble model under RCP 2.6 (optimistic) and RCP 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios were used for the fifth report of IPCC. Then, the variables of rainfall and temperature for the horizon of 2070 were predicted under scenarios B1, A2, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 using the Lars-WG model. In this regard, the yield response functions of the products with respect to climatic parameters by the Generalized Maximum Entropy method (GME) were estimated and the elasticity of the yield of the products with regard to temperature and rainfall were calculated. Then products yield changes on the 2070 horizon under different climate change scenarios were predicted and by including it in a positive mathematical programming (PMP), the impact of different climate change scenarios on regional cultivation pattern, basic food cultivation pattern, gross profit of farmers, physical and economic productivity of water and food security were examined. To estimate the yield response regression model and predict climate changes by LARS_WG model, the data on the period 1982-1982 were used. Also the data and information of farmers were obtained using a two-stage cluster sampling method in 2018 (baseline).
Results and Discussion: The results indicate an increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation, a decrease in the supply of water resources, and consequently a decrease in the yield of most basic food products and an increase in the yield of some vegetable and summer crops were anticipated in all scenarios. The results also showed that the occurrence of the mentioned consequences has negative effects on the total production of crops, the amount of production of basic food products and the gross profit of farmers in the region. And in this regard, in the most pessimistic scenario on the horizon of 2070, it will impose a loss of 490 billion rials on farmers. The increase in the physical and economic efficiency of water in different scenarios shows that water is becoming more valuable due to the decrease in the quantity of water due to climate change. Therefore the economic value of water would increase in the future decades in Hamadan-Bahar plain, which itself represents the severity of water scarcity in the agricultural sector.
Conclusion: The occurrence of climate change by affecting water resources, crop yields, cultivated area, food production and ultimately farmers' incomes, in addition to imposing economic and environmental losses, would affect various aspects of food security such as food availability, access, stability and utilization. Accordingly, in order to maintain and improve the yield of crops and reduce the possible losses imposed on income and food security of the region, it is vital to adopt appropriate strategies compatible with climate change, including the use of new irrigation technologies, deficit irrigation methods and to reform the cultivation pattern by selecting products with higher economic value in order that increase water productivity. Finally improving management of water resources and farmers' income at the plant, farm and region levels, is crucial.

Keywords: Climate change, Cultivation pattern, Food security, Hamedan-Bahar plain, Positive mathematical planning, Water productivity

Introduction: Food security not only requires an adequate supply of food, but also manages the equitable distribution of food and income. The FAO estimates that about 98% of the world's food insecure and malnourished people live in developing countries, with the largest number of malnourished people living in Asia and the Pacific. Given that the majority of the populations of developing countries live in rural areas, improving the level of food security of rural households is a very prominent goal in developing countries. In Iran also, the ratio of severe malnutrition is 4.9% of the total population. The poverty line in Khorasan Razavi rural areas has increased by 28.4% in the summer of 2018 compared to the spring of 2018, which may indicate that more people are below the poverty line in 2018 than in previous years. Also, in comparing the rural and urban poverty line in Khorasan Razavi, the rural poverty line had a higher growth compared with  the urban poverty line during this period, that indicate an increase in poverty in these areas. So, it is important to examine food security situation especially in these areas and identify the variables that determine it. The aim of current study is to analyze the nutritional status of rural households in Khorasan Razavi province.
Materials and Methods: Data for the study are prepared by collecting 400 questionnaires from 40 villages selected by multistage cluster sampling in 2019 in Khorasan Razavi province. In this study Berry index and food group counts were used to assess dietary diversity. Using the FAO classification and the human nutritional pyramid, consumed foods were pooled into 14 groups. These include bread, vegetables, fruits, meat, fish and seafood, oils and butter, pastries, spices, cereals, nuts and seeds, eggs, milk and dairy products, Potatoes, drinks and rice. In the Berry Index, dietary diversity is measured by the number and distribution of food consumption and in the food group index, food scores are measured using the 24-hour dietary method. In order to investigate the factors affecting the equal share of rural households' food consumption, the Ordinal Logit model was used. The dependent variable was divided into five groups: very low food diversity, low food diversity, downward average food diversity, upward average food diversity and high food diversity.
Results and Discussion: Based on results, average index of food groups in the region is 6.08, which indicate that dietary diversity is at a moderate and favorable level, but the average of the Berry index in the study area is 0.83. On average, dietary diversity, and consequently food security, is moderately lower and almost desirable. The difference between the minimum and maximum numerical values of both indices in the sample showed a significant difference between dietary diversity and food security in the studied sample. Thus, the studied rural households are in a moderate level of food security in terms of number of consumed food groups but in moderately low level in terms of share of food groups' consumption. Using the ordinal logit model, variables including gender, education, housing status, monthly food cost, household purchasing power index, awareness, market access and food aid all positively influence household dietary diversity. In other words, increases in the level of these independent variables increase the likelihood that households will be at higher levels of dietary diversity. Parallel regression tests were used to determine whether the ordinal logit model is a suitable model and after performing the relevant test, the ordinal logit model provided the parallel regression condition and the ordinal logit model provided a suitable model.
Conclusion: According to the results of the study, improving the food security of rural households in the region requires providing suitable employment opportunities for female-headed households and providing facilities such as micro-credit for setting up and developing household businesses. It is also needed to provide food aids in a variety of food baskets for rural households.

Keywords: Berry index, Counting food groups, Food security, Khorasan Razavi, Ordinal logit

Introduction: Risk is considered as a negative factor in producing agricultural products. Yet, the presence of risk is not restraining producers from production as long as the generated revenue is proportional to the perceived risk and thereby, the cost of the risk is compensated. The purpose of this study is to measure systematic risk of wheat production in Iran's provinces, and evaluate how the risk is offset in these regions.
Materials and Methods: According to Markowitz, there is a tradeoff between risk and returns in considering alternative investment by rational investors. That is, investors expect higher returns for accepting higher risk in considering any investment. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is an equilibrium model based on this theory which measures systematic risk of an investment (activity) and shows how an asset is priced according to its perceived risk. Thus, this model can be used to examine the systematic risk of producing wheat in different regions and the relationship between the risk of producing this crop and the expected price to generate appropriate returns to compensate the undertaken risk by producers. According to Sharp, by regressing the returns of an investment on the returns of market portfolio, the systematic risk factor for such investment is obtained. The risk factor which takes different values from zero to greater than one is a measure of systematic risk of an activity relative to the risk of overall portfolio. This risk factor is used to compute the returns required to compensate the risk associated to the activity.
Results and Discussion: Results reveal that Yazd province with 0.45 beta coefficient is the least risky province and Mazandaran province with 1.26 beta coefficient is the riskiest province for wheat production in Iran. In fact, based on the results, 20 percent of the wheat producing provinces are classified as high risk in production of this crop. Ardebil, Zanjan and Alborz provinces with systematic risk coefficient of 0.96, West Azerbaijan and Isfahan with systematic risk coefficient of 0.90 are grouped as risky ones. Gilan, Semnan and Hormozgan with systematic risk factor of 0.73 and Bushehr and North Khorasan provinces with systematic risk factor of 0.72 that have similar risk factor are classified as other risky zones. As the results indicate, with 15 percent risk-free rate on investment in the country, wheat producers expect a minimum return of 18 percent in producing wheat in Iran. On the other hand, if the risk-free rate of return on investment rises to 20 percent, wheat producers expect a minimal rate of 19.5 percent. Based on these calculations, prices of this product, and consequently the generated revenues, are in such a way that the returns offset the risk of wheat production in 14 provinces. From this point of view, wheat production in Kurdistan province has the best condition while the production of wheat in the southern province of Kerman shows the worst situation. In addition, results revealed that uncompensated risk in most of the provinces is the result of low yield per hectare and consequently, high average cost in these regions. Thus, focusing on improving productivity is suggested for the specified provinces.
Conclusion: According to the results, uncompensated risk in most of the provinces is the result of low level of yield per hectare and consequently, high level of average cost in these regions. Therefore, it is expected that in the long run, crops with higher yield will be replaced for the wheat and this crop will gradually be removed from the cultivation plan in such provinces. Since wheat is a strategic crop in Iran and to guarantee its production, improving productivity of this product is recommended for the specified provinces.

Keywords: Capital asset pricing model, Iran, Risk compensation, Systematic risk, Wheat

Introduction: Off-farm activities have become an important component of livelihood strategies among rural households in most developing countries. According to available evidence, off-farm income is an important source of income for most rural households, which is important for economic, governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and international representatives of development and advancement. Several studies have reported a substantial and increasing share of off-farm income in total household income. Reasons for this observed income diversification includes declining farm income and the desire to insure against agricultural production and market risks. Non-agricultural activities, which are referred to as off-farm activities, are part of the rural economic sector, which is essential for improvement and assistance that can be referred to as an economic incentive for activities as well as field activities. Due to the development of off-farm activities in rural areas, its share of income has slowly increased and off-farm incomes appear as a contributing factor to the flow of income, which is due to its low income variation. Off-farm activity is a factor in creating diversity in activities and strategies to increase incomes, especially in the time of farm production decline among rural households. Using the theory of time allocation of households, \ incentives to allocate time to out-of-field activities, which not only relate to wage factors but also family structure and individual preferences, are identified.
Materials and Methods: In order to investigate the effect of various factors on having an off-farm activity, regression models with a dummy dependent variable are required. Farmers' time allocation to different activity is a function of some variables, such as individual, regional and family characteristics. The model used in the present study is as follows:


In which the dependent variable is a multiple choice that in this study shows employment in various activities including agriculture, activities related to agriculture and non-agricultural activities. The multinomial logit model was used to investigate the factors affecting the time allocation of farmers in Marvdasht. Another objective of the present study is to answer the question of whether off-farm activity will increase or decrease income inequality. To measure the inequality created by each source of income, the income-resource variance was used. The percentage of total inequality decomposition is obtained from the following formula. It shows the extent to which inequality is created for each source of income.


Results and Discussion: Based on the results, comparing the results of the Logit model and the multinomial logit model indicate that the type of non-agricultural activities is important in the allocation of time and the establishment of various policies for the development of off-farm activities. The level of education has a positive effect on off-field employment due to its effect on creating more job opportunities for individuals. The amount of land owned by the farmer was another important factor in the implementing off-farm activities unrelated to agriculture. According to the results in Marvdasht County, variables such as age, education, livestock breeding, number of extension classes, number of dependent persons, household expenses, expenditure to agricultural income, family labor force and car value have a significant effect on the probability of time allocation to outside activities related to agriculture. Regarding agricultural activities, all variables except for the history of land use and land use ratio have a significant effect on the dependent variable. Also, based on the results, the lowest and largest share of income inequality in households are related to the off-farm activities which is unrelated to agriculture and farming, respectively. Creating the necessary facilities to increase the level of education of households, encouraging off-farm activities for small farmers, along with investing in the development of off-farm activities in rural areas can help to allocate their time to non-agricultural activities along with agriculture and increase income equality.

Keywords: Income inequality, Multinomial logit, Off-farm activities, Time allocation

Introduction
With the growing population of the world, water, food and energy supply will be one of the most important challenges ahead. Agriculture as the most important food producer is not only the consumer of water and energy, but also the most important supplier of energy. As a result, a balance must be struck between harvesting and exploitation of production resources and the amount of agricultural production. Due to the close relationship between water-food-energy systems and also their interaction with each other, a new concept called the “nexus” approach has been proposed which refers to the integrated nature and interactions of water-food-energy planning. This approach has provided suitable options for political decision makers, managers and planners in order to conserve existing resources and achieve sustainable development.
Material and Methods
In this study, we have tried to introduce a mathematical programming model using multi-objective mathematical programming (MOP) technique for water-food-energy nexus that has the ability to process managerial decisions. In this model, in addition to examining the economic aspect, the control of greenhouse gas emissions has also been investigated. The regions of Mashhad, Chenaran and Torqabeh-Shandiz are the most important regions in the study area of Mashhad province in the production of crops. The data required for the study were collected through review of reports and agricultural statistical yearbooks of the year 2020-2021 and interviews with experts in each region and through consulting engineering companies. The hypothetical model under study includes lands covered by crops of Mashhad, Chenaran and Torqabeh-Shandiz. In this model, the water needed to irrigate crops is supplied from surface and groundwater sources. Electricity (electricity consumption) is used to collect and pump of irrigation water, produce food, and supply the domestic and industrial sectors. In the process of generating electricity, production of food, irrigation of crops and consumption of fertilizers and pesticides, greenhouse gases are emitted, especially CO2. In this study, 6 objectives including: maximizing gross profit, maximizing the production of calories from food, minimizing emission of greenhouse gases, minimizing consumption of fertilizers and pesticides, minimizing consumption of irrigation water, and minimizing consumption of energy have been pursued.


Results and Discussion
The results of the proposed model showed that the rate of change in the level of cultivation area in MOP compared to the current cultivation pattern in Mashhad, Chenaran and Torqabeh-Shandiz decreased by 25.92%, 53.05% and 55.88%, respectively. The level of optimal cultivation for barley in Mashhad in order to maximize net profit objective increased by 16934 hectares (46.71%) and its maximizing caloric production equal to 8484 ha, which has decreased compared to the current pattern (22%). The cultivation area of barley in minimum irrigation water consumption decreased by 10877 hectares (1.11%) and in other minimization objectives it changed to 12892 hectares which increased by 17% in Mashhad region. Wheat, barley, alfalfa, corn, sugar beet, tomato and potato have the highest decrease in cultivation area in the MOP among crops. The total area of optimal cultivation in the net profit maximization model of Mashhad, Chenaran and Torqabeh-Shandiz equal to 48639, 26027 and 75 hectares, which showed an increase of 41.4%, 11.61% and 55.8%, respectively. Furthermore, in the model aimed at minimizing energy, irrigation water, fertilizer, pesticide consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions, the recommended cultivation areas are as follows: 25,475 hectares for energy consumption, 15,954 hectares for irrigation water consumption, and 100 hectares each for fertilizer consumption, pesticide consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions. These figures clearly indicate the need to reduce the cultivation area dedicated to agricultural products that have a significant environmental impact. Consequently, it is crucial to alter the cultivation pattern and adopt a strategy that focuses on producing crops with a lower environmental impact. By implementing this strategy, the objective is to cultivate crops that require less energy, irrigation water, fertilizer, and pesticides, while also minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. This approach aims to mitigate the environmental footprint associated with agricultural practices. By reducing the cultivation area for crops that have high environmental effects and transitioning towards crops that have a lesser impact on the environment, it is possible to achieve a more sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural system.
Conclusion
The purpose of this study was to propose a nonlinear multi-objective mathematical programming model with water-food-energy nexus approach for crops in Mashhad province. In this study, in addition to economic relations, energy and environmental issues (greenhouse gas emissions) were also analyzed. The various components of the water-food-energy nexus, including energy supply planning, water supply and demand, food production, and control of greenhouse gas emissions, were modeled. The results showed that considering the MOP model based on economic and environmental objectives, the area under cultivation of wheat, barley, alfalfa, tomatoes, sugar beets and potatoes has significantly decreased. In other words, in order to achieve the objectives of maximum profit and minimum environmental impact, the area under wheat, barley, tomato, corn should be reduced and the area under cucumber, onion, potato and sugar beet should be increased. According to the results of this study, the following suggestions are presented:
- Implementation of the proposed optimal model of water-food-energy nexus allows farmers to simultaneously maintain economic income, environmental considerations, optimal and sustainable consumption of resources (water-food-energy) to select and consider suitable policies. So, it will only be a sustainable policy if it can be built within the combined framework of water, food, energy and the environment.
- In order to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases and its damage to the environment, the area under cultivation of agricultural products that have high environmental impact should be reduced, and in contrast to changes in cultivation pattern, the strategy to produce crops with less impact. Therefore, by developing a cropping pattern model, the productivity of the production capacities of the agricultural sector can be maximized and at the same time the damages and destructive consequences of crop production can be reduced.

Introduction
One of the basic needs of the people is to meet food security. Reports indicate that global demand for agricultural goods will increase over the next decade, with a large share of this demand occurring in developing countries. The importance of poultry products in the human diet is significant because the supply of animal protein in the diet is a key criterion in ensuring food security in society. In fact, poultry is considered one of the most widely consumed protein-rich foods in our country today due to its high production rate, its availability throughout the year and its importance as a white meat. Therefore, considering that East Azerbaijan province, as one of the main center of the poultry industry, has the third place in the closure of broiler chickens compared to the total among the provinces of the country, so this study examines the situation of the poultry industry using chain theory Porter Value aims to analyze the value chain activities of poultry products in order to identify challenges and inadequacies in creating a competitive advantage in East Azerbaijan Province. The value chain of poultry products was based on five components of poultry feed production: mother poultry farms, incubators, laying hens and broiler farms.
Material and Methods
The statistical population of this study was 63 experts, specialists and poultry industry experts. Due to the limited number of the statistical population, the census method was used to collect data. Data were collected through a questionnaire in 2021, validity was confirmed through a panel of professors and experts in the poultry industry in the province and the reliability of the instrument was assessed through a pilot test. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was obtained from 0.701 to 0.833, which indicates acceptable reliability. SPSS22 and SmartPLS3 software were used for data analysis. Also, in order to level the descriptive findings in terms of low, medium and high levels, ISDM index was used.
Result and Discussion
The average level of activities within the entire chicken value chain in East Azerbaijan province, excluding poultry feed production, was found to be predominantly low and moderate. Specifically, in mother hen farms, the highest frequency (39.7%) was at the low level, followed by the moderate level (38.1%). In the hatchery unit, the highest frequency (41.3%) was at the moderate level, while the poor level accounted for only 7.31%. For broiler farms, the highest frequency (41.3%) was at the moderate level, with 33.3% at the poor level. Similarly, in laying hen farms, the highest frequency (44.4%) was at the moderate level, and the poor level accounted for 31.7%. Only in poultry feed production was the level estimated to be good (36.5%) or moderate (33.3%).
Furthermore, significant relationships were observed between certain components of the chicken value chain. Specifically, there was a direct, positive, and significant relationship between poultry feed production factories and laying hen farms. Similarly, the hatchery unit component showed a direct, positive, and significant relationship with laying breeding farms. However, the component of broiler farms did not demonstrate meaningful and effective integration within the provincial-level broiler chicken production. This was due to the lack of significant relationships with the poultry feed production factories and hatchery unit components. Experts in mother poultry farms highlighted weaknesses in government protection policies, inadequate knowledge in feed control, and a lack of research focused on creating favorable conditions for consistent chicken production. These challenges indicated significant obstacles in terms of manpower training, effective research, government support, and optimal production within these units. The analysis of the chicken value chain revealed that only two out of six defined paths showed significant positive relationships: the path between poultry feed production units and laying hen farms, as well as the path between incubation units and laying hen farms. However, the other paths within the chicken value chain, which are expected to play significant roles, did not demonstrate significant positive relationships due to their low and moderate levels. This indicates the existence of challenges within the chicken value chain in East Azerbaijan province.
Conclusion
The results showed that the components of the chicken value chain in order to create a competitive advantage face serious challenges in the implementation of the main activities and support; So that the level of main activities and support of most of the components involved in this chain was medium and low, and this situation cannot create a competitive advantage for the industry. Considering the key role of support activities on the main activities of each component in the chicken value chain, it is suggested that the necessary measures be taken to strengthen and improve staff training, especially in hen farms, as well as applied research programs. Focus on the research policies of the poultry sector of East Azerbaijan province to respond to the changes in the technologies required by the broiler industry and the pathology of the causes of weakness in the use of technology.

Introduction
Bread holds a crucial position in Iranian cuisine and encompasses various types such as Barbari, Lavash, and Sangak. However, these bread varieties are often made from refined flours, lacking the nutritional benefits of whole grains. Reports from the Statistical Center of Iran indicate that bread purchases constitute a significant portion of household expenses. Recent studies have raised concerns about the adverse health effects associated with excessive consumption of refined bread, potatoes, and rice, including diabetes, indigestion, obesity, cardiovascular issues, and digestive system disorders. These concerns highlight the limitations of whole grain food consumption, such as whole wheat-grain bread. To address these health concerns, it becomes necessary to provide stronger incentives or encourage individuals to incorporate more whole grain products into their diets. Thus, the present study aims to analyze the factors influencing households' willingness to pay extra for whole wheat-grain bread, specifically Lavash and Sangak, in the city of Tabriz over a specified time period. By examining these factors, valuable insights can be gained to promote the consumption of healthier bread options and enhance public health outcomes.
Materials and Methods
To achieve the research objective, a questionnaire was developed, and data was collected through a random sampling method from households residing in the ten provinces of Tabriz city. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 302 households during the summer of 2020. The data obtained from the questionnaire was analyzed using statistical and empirical techniques, specifically the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), Sequential Logit (LS) model, and Generalized Sequential Logit (GSL) model. To ensure the validity of the models used, the Brant test of parallel regression was applied. This test evaluated whether there was proportionality in the odds model for ordinal logistic regression. It examined whether the observed deviations from our ordinal logistic regression model were significantly larger than what could be expected due to chance alone. This assessment helped ensure the reliability and accuracy of the statistical analysis conducted in the study.
Results and Discussion
The results of the study indicate that a high percentage of households in Tabriz city, specifically 90.73% for Lavash bread and 93.38% for Sangak bread, were willing to pay extra for whole wheat-grain options. Among the households, 40.4% expressed their willingness to pay less than 20% extra for the bread, while 26.82% were willing to pay more than 50% extra. Several factors were found to influence households' willingness to pay for whole wheat-grain bread. Positive effects were observed for the health index, knowledge of the benefits of whole wheat bread, education level, family income, presence of elderly individuals in the family, and frequent consumption of whole wheat Lavash bread. However, gender had a negative effect on households' willingness to pay for whole wheat-grain Lavash bread. Similarly, for whole wheat-grain Sangak bread, the health index, knowledge of the benefits of whole wheat bread, family income, and the presence of a patient individual in the family had positive effects, while gender had a negative effect. As the null hypothesis of the parallel regression test was rejected, the Generalized Sequential Logit model was applied to analyze the effects of various factors on households' willingness to pay at different levels (0%, less than 20%, 21-30%, 31-40%, 41-50%, and more than 50%) for different types of whole wheat-grain bread. The results of the model yielded different outcomes. Increases in the health index, awareness of whole wheat bread, family income, education level, presence of a patient individual in the family, and frequent consumption of whole wheat bread positively influenced households' willingness to pay more for both Lavash and Sangak bread. Education level and the presence of a patient individual in the family acted as incentives for whole wheat-grain Lavash bread, while gender and the number of household members deterred households from paying more. The general index of bread purchase was the only factor influencing households' willingness to pay more for whole wheat-grain Sangak bread. Education level, knowledge of the benefits of whole wheat bread, gender, and the number of household members had a negative impact on households' willingness to pay for Sangak bread. Moreover, the marginal effects of the coefficients were estimated at different levels, indicating how changes in the independent variables (such as health index, general index of bread purchase, awareness of whole wheat bread, family income, education level, knowledge of the benefits of whole wheat bread, frequent consumption of whole wheat bread, number of household members, presence of elderly individuals in the family, and presence of a patient individual in the family) affected households' willingness to pay for whole wheat-grain bread.
Conclusion
According to the results, limitation in producing, supplying, and distributing the whole wheat-grain breads across the city, lack of easy access to whole wheat-grain stores, high prices, remote locations for purchases, and family awareness were the main and significant factors of using whole wheat-grain Lavash and Sangak breads among the Tabriz households. In this regard, the following policies were recommended: 1) Increasing the number of whole wheat-grain breads baking units and purchasing stores, 2) Group media can help to the acculturation and adaptation to the consumption of the whole grain bread, 3) Increasing awareness of whole wheat-grain bread benefits on health could be effective steps on the consumption of whole wheat-grain breads in Tabriz city.

Introduction
Despite the positive effects of the liberalization of economic activity around the world, the Iranian government still has a major share in the country's economy. However, almost all economists agree on the low efficiency of government economic activities. Restricting government involvement in these activities is a move that has been proposed and pursued by the World Bank and other global economic organizations, especially in recent decades. One of the policies recently proposed to reduce government interference in the Iranian economy is the elimination of 42,000 Rials in the country. But reducing government interference in agricultural activities can have many positive and negative effects. One of these effects could be rising food prices. In recent years, the frequency of large food price increases has accelerated around the world. Due to the dramatic changes in food prices, there have been numerous studies postulated that the exchange rate and crude oil price instability are the main determinant of the food price crises in different countries. The exchange rate is at the center of the policy debate in both developed and developing economies. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on food price fluctuations in Iran. For this reason, the NARDL approach has been used.
Materials and Methods
Due to the possibilities of asymmetric impact exits between the underlying variables (exchange rate and food price), the asymmetric Non-linear Unrestricted ARDL proposed by Shin et al. (2014) is widely used by the researchers, such as Ibrahim (2015) and Abdlaziz et al. (2016). The main purpose of this test was to test for the presence asymmetric effects in both long- and short-run relationships between economic time-series. Shin et al. (2014) applied the positive and negative partial sum decompositions to test the asymmetric effects. This asymmetric Unrestricted ARDL cointegration approach which allows the joint analysis of non-stationarity and non-linearity issues in the context of an unrestricted error correction model (ECM). In this study, in order to investigate the asymmetric effects of currency shock on food prices, the model introduced in the study of Wong and Shamsdin (2017) was used:





Results and Discussion
The findings of the study indicate several important relationships between key variables (oil price, per capita GDP, exchange rate, and trade liberalization) and food prices in Iran. Firstly, the study reveals that these variables exhibit long-run cointegration with food prices, suggesting a significant relationship between them. Secondly, the Unrestricted NARDL model demonstrates that exchange rates have a significant long-run asymmetric impact on food price changes in Iran. This implies that changes in the exchange rate can have a varying effect on food prices, depending on whether the exchange rate is appreciating or depreciating. Thirdly, the study finds that while long-run and short-run changes in oil prices do not have a significant impact on food prices in Iran, the long-run growth of per capita GDP and trade liberalization do have a significant impact on food price fluctuations. Specifically, the coefficients of the exchange rate variables indicate that a 1 percent increase in the exchange rate results in a 0.32 percent increase in the consumer food price index and a 1.05 percent increase in the producer food price index in the long run. The asymmetric impact of the exchange rate on Iranian food price fluctuations suggests that policymakers should prioritize stabilizing the national currency to manage the movement of food prices. This implies that economic policymakers, who aim to reduce inflation, protect vulnerable populations, and ensure food security, need to consider currency stability in their decision-making process. In addition to price liberalization, supportive policies should be implemented to prevent economic barriers to accessing food. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of understanding the relationships between key economic variables and food prices in Iran, and the need for policymakers to take these factors into account when making decisions regarding inflation, food security, and supporting vulnerable populations.
Conclusion
In this study, the focus was on investigating the asymmetric impact of oil price, real GDP, and exchange rates on food price fluctuations in Malaysia. The findings revealed that the exchange rate had a significant asymmetric effect on the movement of food prices, indicating its importance in understanding the current food market situation in Iran. This suggests that policymakers should prioritize addressing exchange rate issues rather than solely focusing on crude oil prices when formulating food price policies. The study emphasizes that stabilizing the national currency is of greater importance than controlling oil prices, as demonstrated by the research findings. Rising food prices have a detrimental impact on the economic access of vulnerable groups to sufficient food and pose a significant threat to food security. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive relationship between increasing exchange rates and agricultural product prices. In the short term, it is essential to implement supportive policies to prevent a reduction in economic access to food. These policies should aim to address the challenges faced by vulnerable groups in accessing affordable food. By taking these measures, policymakers can mitigate the negative consequences of rising food prices and ensure food security for all.

Introduction
Agriculture and its products play a crucial role in sustaining human life. The introduction of the green revolution has greatly enhanced agricultural productivity worldwide by providing irrigation water, introducing improved crop varieties, and utilizing inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. These technologies received substantial public support, leading to significant advancements in agricultural practices. However, the benefits of the green revolution were not equally distributed among all farmers. Large and medium-scale farmers, who had the financial means to afford inputs and equipment, reaped the highest rewards in terms of production and income. Additionally, the excessive use of inorganic fertilizers resulted in soil and water quality degradation, posing a threat to the sustainability of the economic and social progress achieved through the green revolution. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether these challenges also apply at the sub-national or provincial level. By evaluating the level of agricultural sustainability, analyzing the trends in agricultural development, and identifying potential threats, it becomes possible to formulate practical plans for improving sustainability within the agricultural sector. The aim of this study is to assess indicators related to economic, social, and environmental dimensions of agricultural sustainability at the provincial level in Iran.
Materials and Methods
The assessment of sustainability of agriculture requires determination of meaningful indicators covering economic, social and environmental dimensions. Selection of indicators used in this study was based on relevance of the indicators and availability of secondary data. To achieve the purpose, the latest available information of the statistics of the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, the results of the labor force survey of the Statistics Center of Iran and the statistical yearbooks of different provinces were used. In terms of measuring environmental sustainability, indicators of crop diversification, use of organic and inorganic fertilizers and pesticides were selected. The specific indicators used for the analyses in the economic dimension were change in overall crop production (Quantum index of agricultural production) and stability of crop production. The stability of crop production refers to maintaining a certain minimum level of production or a steady increase in production as compared to the base year. The stability of production of major crops was analyzed using the Shapiro-Wilk (SW) normality test and one sample t-test. In the social dimension, indicators of rural labor employment and rural food security were used. Based mainly on secondary data, covering the period of 2005/06–2018/19, each dimension of sustainability was analyzed using selected indicators.

Results and Discussion
The analyses conducted in this study revealed several significant findings. Firstly, the majority of provinces in the country demonstrated a favorable situation in terms of crop diversification, as indicated by the Herfindahl index. This suggests a wide variety of crops being cultivated in these regions. However, there was a notable variation in the use of inorganic fertilizers per unit of land across the country. Furthermore, more than 60% of the country's soils were found to have less than one percent organic carbon, highlighting the need for optimal application and management of organic fertilizers, particularly in Golestan province. The study also identified a high rate of pesticide usage in the northern and southern provinces of the country, indicating potential concerns regarding pesticide management and environmental impact in these regions. Additionally, the analysis revealed either a consistent trend or a significant decrease in the Quantum index of agricultural production in most provinces. This suggests a potential stagnation or decline in agricultural productivity over time in these areas. Moreover, there was a significant decrease in the employment rate of the rural population in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. This finding implies potential shifts in employment patterns and economic dynamics in rural areas. Lastly, the study highlighted the significant share of food expenses in the income of the rural population in Sistan and Balouchestan province, underscoring the importance of addressing food security and affordability challenges in this region. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights into the current state of agricultural sustainability and development at the provincial level in Iran.
Conclusion
Based on the findings of this research, it can be concluded that regional differences exist in agricultural sustainability within Iran. In light of this, it is recommended to develop effective regional agricultural policies that are based on local-level research. This approach would enable a comprehensive understanding of the environmental concerns and specific needs at both the local and provincial levels. Furthermore, it is suggested to revise the agricultural extension structure to incorporate need-based services, improve the dissemination of information, and provide farm-level trainings. This would ensure that farmers have access to the necessary resources and knowledge to enhance their agricultural practices. The study emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance among the three tiers of agricultural sustainability. Merely focusing on improving one or two tiers would not be sufficient to ensure the overall sustainability of the agricultural sector. Therefore, effective interventions should address economic, social, and environmental aspects simultaneously. Specific interventions proposed in the study include the development of biological pest control methods, particularly for rice and tomatoes. Indirect subsidies for organic and biological fertilizers and pesticides are also recommended. Conservation and management of soil and water resources are crucial for stabilizing production. Additionally, diversification of income sources and livelihood options for smallholder farmers, especially in Sistan and Balouchestan and Kordistan provinces, is recommended to enhance their resilience and sustainability. By implementing these recommended interventions, it is anticipated that agricultural sustainability in Iran can be improved, ensuring a more balanced and resilient agricultural sector.