نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی ساری

چکیده

یکی از چالش‌های اساسی در سال‌های اخیر، مسئله تغییر کاربری اراضی، جلوگیری از تخریب و اهمیت حفظ کاربری اراضی می‌باشد. بر همین اساس، عوامل مؤثر بر تغییر کاربری اراضی با استفاده از اطلاعات پیمایشی 60 بهره‌بردار کشاورزی شهرستان تنکابن و بهره‌گیری از الگوی دومرحله‌ای توبیت- هکمن در سال 1391 بررسی شد. نتایج برآورد الگوی پروبیت نشان داد که سطح سواد، تجربه، تعداد قطعات زمین باغی، سطح زیر کشت مرکبات و کیوی، قیمت محصول باغی (کیوی)، سطح زیر کشت زراعی و قیمت زمین زراعی با اثر مثبت و متغیرهای اندازه خانوار، قیمت زمین باغی، قیمت محصول باغی (مرکبات)، تعداد قطعات زمین زراعی، قیمت محصول زراعی، رضایت از نهادهای حمایتی و بیمه باغی و زراعی با اثر منفی بر اخذ تصمیم به تغییر کاربری اراضی از زراعی به باغی، نقش دارند. همچنین نتایج برازش الگوی مرحله دوم توبیت بیانگر تأثیر مثبت تعداد قطعات زمین باغی، سطح زیر کشت مرکبات و کیوی، قیمت محصول باغی (مرکبات)، تعداد قطعات زمین زراعی، سطح زیر کشت زمین زراعی، قیمت زمین زراعی و بیمه باغی و زراعی و تأثیر منفی متغیرهای اندازه خانواده، سطح سواد، تجربه، قیمت زمین باغی، قیمت محصول باغی (کیوی)، قیمت محصول زراعی و رضایت از نهادهای حمایتی بر میزان اقدام به تغییر کاربری اراضی می‌باشد. با توجه به یافته‌ها، ایجاد شبکه بیمه‌ای گسترده برای پوشش کشاورزان خرده‌پا، جلوگیری از ایجاد نوسان‌های قیمتی محصولات باغی و زراعی، توجه جدی به تولیدات زراعی به‌عنوان محصولات استراتژیک و حمایت از بهره‌برداران در این بخش در قالب بسته سیاستی به برنامه ریزان این عرصه پیشنهاد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors Affecting the Formation of Change in Land Use in the Mazandaran Province: A Case Study of Tonekabon

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Jamalipour 1
  • A.R. Shahpouri 2
  • M. Ghorbani 1

1 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

2 Agricultural Economics, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

چکیده [English]

Introduction: Land use in the overall concept is said to be the type of using land in the current situation which contains all users in different sectors of agriculture, natural resources and the industry. Protecting land use is as follows: “Prevent the change of application of certain lands by their owners, if their change has negative natural, economic, political, cultural, or scientific effects”. Change of application of land is certainly the most important factor that will affect the protection of natural ecosystems. Thus, it is imperative to consider the importance of land use change from the perspective of environmental, economic, social and finally, its important aspects such as food security and the lack of planning for its realization and the changes that occur in these sectors.Factors affecting the development of land use change should be considered to finally be able to apply appropriate policies and strategic principles to reduce its negative effects.
Materials and Methods:Thestudy’s data and information were obtained by simple random sampling and through interviews and 60 questionnaires that were completed by farmers and rice farmers of Tonekabon city that all or part of their land use had been changed and the datahadbeen collected in 2012. For investigating the factors affecting agricultural land use changes, the Tobit model of Heckman’s two-step was used. In this paper, the relationship between the factors that influence decision to change land use and actions to land use change were investigated. The variables including family size, literacy, experience, number of garden plots, citrus cultivation, kiwi cultivation, the price per square meter of garden land, the price per kilograms of horticultural crops (citrus), the price per kilograms of horticultural products (kiwi), number of pieces of agricultural land, cultivated level, the price per kilograms of crop, the price per square meter of agricultural land, satisfaction of supporting institutions and garden and agricultural insurance were used in this study.
Results and Discussion: The estimated Probit model’s marginal effects showed that the variables of literacy, experience, citrus and kiwi cultivation, number of garden plots, the price per kilograms of horticultural products (kiwi), cultivated level, and the price per square meter of agricultural land have been positive signs that indicate a positive impact of these variables on the decision to change the use of land. The estimated linear regression model showed that the variables of number of garden plots, citrus cultivation, kiwi cultivation, the price per kilograms of horticultural crops (citrus), number of pieces of agricultural land, cultivated level and garden and agricultural insurance have been positive signs that indicate the positive impact of these variables on the action to change the use of land. Due to significant coefficients of the quantitative variables that influence the rate of change in land use, cultivation of citrus fruits is dedicated to most positive effects. As well, satisfaction of supporting institutions also has the most negative role as a dummy variable.
Conclusion: The issues of land use change, prevention of land destruction and preservation of land, are of the main challenges in recent years. In this paper, we investigated the factors affecting change in land use by using a survey of 60 farmers in Tonekabon and the two-step Tobit model (Heckman) in 2012.The result of the Probit model showed that literacy levels, experience, number ofhorticulturalland pieces, area of citrusandkiwi,the price ofhorticultural products(kiwi), crop area and price ofland hada positive effect andhouseholdsize, price ofhorticultural land, price ofhorticultural products(citrus), number ofagricultural land price, and averageprice ofcrop, the satisfaction level of support in situations, horticultural and agricultural insurance had negative effects on thedecisionofchanging agriculturallandtohorticultural. Also, the results of the second stage Tobit regressi on model showed that the number of horticulturalland price, area of kiwi and citrus, price of horticultural products (citrus), pieces of agricultural land and crop area, price of land and horticulturalcropinsurance hada positive effect on householdsize,literacy levels, experience, price ofhorticultural products(kiwi), and price ofcrops and satisfaction level ofsupportinstitutions had a negative effect on thelevel ofchanging in land use. According to the findings, creation of expansion in surance for coverage of small farmers, preventing price volatility horticultural and agricultural products, paying attention to agricultural production asstrategic products and supporting the operation of this sector in a package is suggested.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Changinge in Land Use
  • Heckman
  • Marginal Effect
  • Tobit Model  
1- Ahmadi R. 1996. The Role of Land Use in the Creation and Intensification of Forest Mass Movements, Master’s thesis, Faculty of Science, Tarbiat Modarres University. (in Persian with English Abstract).
2- Al Amin M., Rashford B.S., Bastin C.T., and Aadland D.M. 2013. Agricultural Land-Use in a Changing Climate: Imp;ications for Waterfowl Habitat in Prairie Canada.
3- Amirnezhad H. 2013. Investigation Factors Affecting the Willingness of Farmers to Change Land Use in the Mazandaran Province. Agricultural Economics Research, 5 (4): 87-106. (In Persian)
4- Darijani A. 1999. Evaluation of Depositor’s Characteristics and Factors Affecting Household’s Bank Deposits. Master’s Thesis. Tehran University. (in Persian with English Abstract).
5- Emadi M., Baghernezhad M., and Memarian H.R. 2008. Effect of Use Changes on the Characteristics of Soil Fertility in the Soil Aggregates Water Stability of Two-Cultivation Soil in the North of Iran. Journal of Applied Sciences, 8(3): 496-502. (in Persian).
6- Eteraf H. 2001. Effects of Clay Land Use on Fertility and Erosion of the Soil in the Region Moraveh Tappeh. Master’s thesis. Gorgan University. (in Persian with English Abstract).
7- Eynollahi M. 1998. Determination of Price and Non-Price Factors on Sugar Beet in Iran (Khorasan). Master’s Thesis. Tehran University. (in Persian with English Abstract).
8- Feyzizadeh B., and Haji Mirrahimi M. 2008. Detection of Land Use Changes Using Object-Oriented Method, (Case Study: Andisheh Settlements), Geomatics Conference, the Mapping Organization of the Country. (in Persian).
9- Food Agriculture Organization World, http://www.fao.org.
10- Geist H.J., and Lambin E.F. 2002. Proximate Causes and Underlying Driving Forces of Tropical Deforestation. BIOSCIENCE, 52(2), 143-150.
11- Ghaffari A. 1994. Effects of Land Use on Alaa River’s Erosion in Marvdashat, a National Seminar Reviewing Policies and Methods to Optimal Productivity of the Land. (in Persian).
12- Ghaffari G., Ghodousi J., and Ahmadi H. 2009. Investigating the Hydrological Effects of Land Use Change in Catchment (Case Study: Zanjanrood Basin). Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 16(1): 163-180. (in Persian with English Abstract).
13- Greene W.H. 1993. Econometric Analysis, 2nd Edition. New York: Macmillan, 791.
14- Heckman J. 1979. The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 5: 475-492.
15- Houghton R.A., DeFries R.S., Asner G.P., and (Eds.). 2004. Ecosystems and Land Use Change. Geophysical Monograph Series, 153: 344.
16- Land Affairs Organization. 2003. Collection of the laws, regulations, bylaws, and operating procedures. Volume II.
17- Li K.Y., Coe M.T., Ramankutty N., and De Jong R. 2007. Modeling the Hydrological Impact of Land-Change in West Africa. Journal of Hydrology, 337: 258-268.
18- Lubowski R.N., Bucholtz Sh., Claassen R., Roberts M.J., Cooper J. C., Gueorguieva A., and Johansson R. 2006. Environmental Effects of Agricultural Land-Use Change. Economic Research Service United State Department of Agricultural, Economic Research Report, 25.
19- Mehrabi A., Mohammadi M., Mohseni Saravi M., Jafari M., and Ghorbani M. 2013. Evaluation of Human Stimulus forces Affecting Land Use Change (Case Study: Seyed Mahalleh and Drasra-Tonekabon Villages). Journal of Range and Watershed. Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, 66(2): 307-320. (in Persian).
20- Nabi Peylashgarian S. 2001. Study the Effects of Land Use on Soil Erosion and Sediment Production in the Watershed Masoule of Gilan, Master's Thesis, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources. (in Persian with English Abstract).
21- Najafinejad A., Mardian M., Varvani J., and Sheikh V.B. 2011. Evaluation and Comparison of Representative Hill Slope and Raster based Hill Slope Methods for Computation of Topography Factor in USLE. Journal of Soil Management and Sustainable Production, 1(1): 99-114. (in Persian with English Abstract).
22- Niknahad Gharmakher H., and Maramaei M. 2011. Effects of Land Use Changes on Soil Properties (Case Study: the Kechik Catchment). Journal of Soil Management and Sustainable Production, 1(2). 81-96. (in Persian with English Abstract).
23- Rajesh B., and Yuji M. 2006. Land Use Change Analysis Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Case Study of Kathmandu Metropolitan, Nepal, P 22.
24- Saadati H., Gholami Sh.A., Sharifi F., and Ayoubzadeh S.A. 2006. An Investigation of The Effects of Land Use Change on Simulating Surface Runoff Using SWAT Mathematical Model (Case Study: Kasilian Catchment Area).Iranian Journal Natural Resources, 59(2): 298-313. (in Persian with English Abstract).
25- Salehi Taleshi F., and Mahboubi M.R. 2012. Factors Affecting the Agricultural Land Use Change to Garden. The first National Conference on Strategies for Achieving Sustainable Development. 20th March, Tehran. (In Persian).
26- Sali G. 2012. Agricultural Land Consumption in Developed Countries. International Association of Agricultural Economists Triennial Conference, Brazil, 18-24.
27- Shachery A., Shojaei M., Emami A., and Baghban R. 2002. Collection of Laws and Regulations to Preserve Agricultural Land Use and the Gardens, the Land Affairs Organization. (in Persian)
28- Srivastava S.K., and Gupta D. 2003. Monitoring of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover Using Multi – Sensor Satellite Data. Map India conference.
29- Tiessen H., Sampaio E.V.S.B., and Salcedo I.H. 2001. Organic Matter Turnover and Anagement in Low Input Agriculture of NE Brazil. Nutr. Cycl.Agroecosys, 61: 99-103.
30- Tobin J. 1958. Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables. Econometrica, 26: 29-36.
31- Vitousek P.M., Mooney H.A., Lubchenko J., and Melillo J.M. 1997. Human Domination of Earth’s Ecosystems, Science, 277. 494–499.
32- Wang S., Shaozhong K., Lu Z., and Fusheng L. 2008. Modelling Hydrological Response to Different Land-Use Andclimate Change Scenarios in the Zamu River Basin of Northwest China, J. Hydro. Proc., 22: 2502-2510.
33- Whister D. 1999. An Introductory Guide to SHAZAM, www.Shazam.Econ.ubc.Ca.Logit Test for Heteroskedasticity.
34- Yeo I., Gordon S.I., and Guldmann J. 2004. Optimizing Patterns of Land Use to Reduce Peak Runoff Flow and Non Point Source Pollution With an Integrated Hydrological and LandUse Model.AMS Online Journals Access Control, 6: 1–20.
35- Yousefifard M., Khademi H., and Jalalian A. 2007. Decline in Soil Quality as a Result of Land Use Change in Cheshmeh Ali region, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari Province. Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, 14(1). (in Persian with English Abstract).
CAPTCHA Image