سنجش آسیب‌پذیری گندم‌کاران شمال استان فارس نسبت به خشکسالی

Introduction: Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and drought. In the meantime, drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources, and this phenomenon is slow and creeping.Available evidence suggests that drought management is based on crisis management. As the present management in our country is based on crisis management, and drought-proneareasin thecountryhave become a society vulnerable to drought. So, the authorities require a new set of data for drought preparedness to deal with these challenges, in order to obtain the resources to be properly and effectively prioritized and reduce the effects of drought and its consequences. Undoubtedly, the starting point of vulnerability assessment and risk management is a prerequisite that has been sadly neglected in our country. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of technical, economic and social vulnerability assessment determined before and after the drought and vulnerability patterns for wheat farmers in the North of Fars province.
Materials and Methods: The vulnerability of wheat farmers in the North of Fars province is determined using three methods. The first method measured ex ante vulnerability based on estimated income distributions, and the other identified ex post vulnerability according to farmers asset positions and drought coping strategy in the 1390 drought. The final section determined the patterns of vulnerability using cluster analysis and data mining. A sample of 203 farmers in three plains was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years (1390 and 1391) was carried out. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of households in the North of Fars province against drought, the formula Me-bar and Valdez has been used. In North of Fars province, as many other fields, agriculture is the main source of income and income from agriculture is highly dependent on rainfall. The conditional mean and variance for each farmer household, were predicted using data on rainfall and farm household characteristics. In this study, to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmer households in the North of Fars province before the drought, the method used to estimate household income distribution is Kusunose.
Results and Discussion: Data for the wheat farmers in three fields Aspass, Namdan and Sedehwho constitute 86% of the Northern Province were collected through questionnaire and with a simple random multistage interview. Typically, ex ante vulnerability, using data on household consumption or expenditure data over time wasmeasured. Household consumption or costs reflect the income stream and the family’s coping capacity. It should be noted that the measurement of vulnerability to drought before (ex ante) is based on two assumptions of behavior and consumers’ income. After the drought, vulnerability criteria (ex post), on the basis of income shocks caused by drought and household tools to tackle with the drought, were measured. The characteristics of households that are vulnerable according to the criteria based on the characteristics of vulnerable households are compared. Percent of irrigated lands are vulnerable households with vulnerable families, and it somehow reflects easier access to equipment and facilities are vulnerable households irrigation.
Conclusion:The results shows that if crops are the sole income source and have no consumption smoothing capability whatsoever, and consumption perfectly tracks income, over 32% of sampled farmers fall to the Southwest of the 60% vulnerability curve meaning that these farmers would fall under the poverty line ever 60% of the time. But only 10% of the sampled farmers would fall under poverty line over 60% of the time if we use the second income measure, the combined income from crops and off-farm sources. The results showed that factors such as unity of citizens and access to capital for agricultural inputs rank first and second in terms of vulnerability todrought.Also, by putting the dimensions of technical, economic and social vulnerability, this study extracted seven independent and distinct patterns of vulnerability. The comparison between the specifications of vulnerable and secure households during droughts shows policy for farmers who are vulnerable to drought before and after the drought, and policies to increase employment opportunities outside the farm.The findings of this study help policymakers shift from crisis management to risk management and design appropriate plans at sub-regional or farm level rather than national or regional levels.