عوامل مؤثر بر شکل‌گیری تغییر کاربری اراضی در استان مازندران (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان تنکابن)

Introduction: Land use in the overall concept is said to be the type of using land in the current situation which contains all users in different sectors of agriculture, natural resources and the industry. Protecting land use is as follows: “Prevent the change of application of certain lands by their owners, if their change has negative natural, economic, political, cultural, or scientific effects”. Change of application of land is certainly the most important factor that will affect the protection of natural ecosystems. Thus, it is imperative to consider the importance of land use change from the perspective of environmental, economic, social and finally, its important aspects such as food security and the lack of planning for its realization and the changes that occur in these sectors.Factors affecting the development of land use change should be considered to finally be able to apply appropriate policies and strategic principles to reduce its negative effects.
Materials and Methods:Thestudy’s data and information were obtained by simple random sampling and through interviews and 60 questionnaires that were completed by farmers and rice farmers of Tonekabon city that all or part of their land use had been changed and the datahadbeen collected in 2012. For investigating the factors affecting agricultural land use changes, the Tobit model of Heckman’s two-step was used. In this paper, the relationship between the factors that influence decision to change land use and actions to land use change were investigated. The variables including family size, literacy, experience, number of garden plots, citrus cultivation, kiwi cultivation, the price per square meter of garden land, the price per kilograms of horticultural crops (citrus), the price per kilograms of horticultural products (kiwi), number of pieces of agricultural land, cultivated level, the price per kilograms of crop, the price per square meter of agricultural land, satisfaction of supporting institutions and garden and agricultural insurance were used in this study.
Results and Discussion: The estimated Probit model’s marginal effects showed that the variables of literacy, experience, citrus and kiwi cultivation, number of garden plots, the price per kilograms of horticultural products (kiwi), cultivated level, and the price per square meter of agricultural land have been positive signs that indicate a positive impact of these variables on the decision to change the use of land. The estimated linear regression model showed that the variables of number of garden plots, citrus cultivation, kiwi cultivation, the price per kilograms of horticultural crops (citrus), number of pieces of agricultural land, cultivated level and garden and agricultural insurance have been positive signs that indicate the positive impact of these variables on the action to change the use of land. Due to significant coefficients of the quantitative variables that influence the rate of change in land use, cultivation of citrus fruits is dedicated to most positive effects. As well, satisfaction of supporting institutions also has the most negative role as a dummy variable.
Conclusion: The issues of land use change, prevention of land destruction and preservation of land, are of the main challenges in recent years. In this paper, we investigated the factors affecting change in land use by using a survey of 60 farmers in Tonekabon and the two-step Tobit model (Heckman) in 2012.The result of the Probit model showed that literacy levels, experience, number ofhorticulturalland pieces, area of citrusandkiwi,the price ofhorticultural products(kiwi), crop area and price ofland hada positive effect andhouseholdsize, price ofhorticultural land, price ofhorticultural products(citrus), number ofagricultural land price, and averageprice ofcrop, the satisfaction level of support in situations, horticultural and agricultural insurance had negative effects on thedecisionofchanging agriculturallandtohorticultural. Also, the results of the second stage Tobit regressi on model showed that the number of horticulturalland price, area of kiwi and citrus, price of horticultural products (citrus), pieces of agricultural land and crop area, price of land and horticulturalcropinsurance hada positive effect on householdsize,literacy levels, experience, price ofhorticultural products(kiwi), and price ofcrops and satisfaction level ofsupportinstitutions had a negative effect on thelevel ofchanging in land use. According to the findings, creation of expansion in surance for coverage of small farmers, preventing price volatility horticultural and agricultural products, paying attention to agricultural production asstrategic products and supporting the operation of this sector in a package is suggested.