ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
الگوسازی اثر شوک نرخ ارز بر سرمایهگذاری در بخش کشاورزی (کاربرد روش NARDL)
مسئله تنظیم ارز یکی از مسائل اساسی در کشورهای در حال توسعه است. نرخ ارز ناهماهنگ با تغییرات اقتصادی، سبب جهتگیریهای نادرست سیاستهای کلان اقتصاد میشود که این پدیده مشکلاتی در زمینه انتخاب پروژههای سرمایهگذاری ایجاد میکند. مطالعه حاضر، با بهرهگیری از دادههای سالانه 96-1357 و به کارگیری الگوی غیرخطی خودرگرسیونی با وقفههای گسترده (NARDL) به بررسی ارتباط خطی و غیرخطی (متقارن و غیر متقارن) شوک نرخ ارز و سرمایهگذاری در بخش کشاورزی میپردازد. در این مطالعه، برای استخراج شوکهای نرخ ارز از فیلتر هودریک پرسکات استفاده شد. نتایج آزمون والد و آماره F و آزمون نسبت حداکثر درستنمایی نشان داد که الگوی غیرخطی NARDL در مقابل الگوی خطی، در تبیین متغیرهای مدل کاراتر است. بر اساس نتایج، اثر شوکهای ارزی نامتقارن بوده و شوکهای مثبت ارزی اثر منفی بر سرمایهگذاری بخش کشاورزی داشته است، همچنین شوکهای منفی نرخ ارز، اثر مثبت بر سرمایهگذاری بخش داشته است. بنابراین بروز هرگونه شوک ارزی، به معنای ایجاد تلاطم در اقتصاد بوده و تخصیص منابع را از سرمایهگذاری در فعالیتهای مولد نظیر تولید کشاورزی به سمت فعالیتهای غیرمولد نظیر سوداگری در بازار ارز، طلا و سکه، دلالی مسکن و خودرو سوق میدهد. یکی از راهکارهای مقابله با این وضعیت، کاهش شکاف میان نرخ ارز رسمی و بازار آزاد و همچنین تکنرخی کردن ارز است.
https://jead.um.ac.ir/article_35355_1a3ea785c39ba6f49f8654b5690559ab.pdf
2020-08-22
113
125
10.22067/jead2.v34i2.81510
سرمایه گذاری
فیلتر هودریک پرسکات
نااطمینانی ارز
NARDL
علی اکبر
باغستانی
a.baghestany@gmail.com
1
دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی - واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران
LEAD_AUTHOR
1- Alam M.I., and Quazy R.M. 2003. Determinant of Capital Flight: an Econometric Case Study of Bangladesh). Review of Applied Economics (17): 85-103.
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2- Bahmani-Oskooee M., and Hajilee M. 2012. Exchange rate volatility and its impact on domestic investment. Research in Economics, Elsevier 67(1): 1-12.
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3- BLeany M., and Greenwey D. 2001. The Impact of Term of Trade and Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Development Economics 45(20): 500-491.
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4- Banerji A., and Dolado J., and Galbraith J.W., and Hendry D.F. 1993. Cointegration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data. Oxford University Press.
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5- Cottani J., and Cavallo F., and Khan S. 1990. Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDC. Economic and Cultural Change. (39).
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6- Easterly W., and Islam R., and Stiglitz J. 2000. Explaining Growth Volatility. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics. Oxford University Press.
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7- Farajzadeh B. 2017. Study of the relationship between shocks caused by exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment in Iran. The first international conference on economic planning, sustainable and balanced regional development. University of Kordestan. (In Persian with English abstract)
7
8- Golkhandan A. 2016. The effect of positive and negative impacts of oil price shocks on stock price index in Iran (is this asymmetric effect?). Quarterly Journal of Financial and Economic Policies (15): 89-114. (In Persian with English abstract)
8
9- Granger C.W., and Yoon G. 2002. "Hidden Cointegration", University of California, Working Paper.
9
10- Halafi H.R., and Eghbali A.R., and Gaskari R. 2004. Deviation of real exchange rate and economic growth in Iranian economy. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research 4(14): 167-188. (In Persian with English abstract)
10
11- Karimzadeh S., Imam Verdi Gh., and Shayesteh A. 2004. A study on the effect of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports of Iran. Economics Quarterly (8)29: 151-174. (In Persian with English abstract)
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12- Karras G., and Stokes Houston H. 1992. Why are the effects of money supply shocks asymmetric? Evidence from prices, consumption, and investment. University of Illinois at Chicago.
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13- Kandil M. 2000. The asymmetric effect of exchange rate fluctuation: theory and evidence from developing countries. Working paper.
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14- Kazerooni A.R., and Dolati M. 2007. The effect of the real exchange rate uncertainty on private sector investment (case study of Iran). Quarterly Journal of Commercial Law Research (45): 283-306. (In Persian with English abstract)
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15- Loony R.E. 1991. Factors affecting private sector investment in Agriculture.
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16- Morad Pour Olaadi M., Ebrahimi M., and Abbasion V. 2008. Investigating the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on private sector investment. Iranian Economic Research Quarterly 10(35): 159-176. (In Persian with English abstract)
16
17- Narayan P.K., and Narayan S. 2004. Estimating Income and Price Elasticity's of Imports for Fiji in a Cointegration Framework. Economic Modeling (22): 423-438.
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18- Nucci F., and Pozzolo A.F. 2001. Investment and Exchange Rate: An analysis with firm-Level Panel Data. European Economic Review (45): 259-283.
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19- Serven L. 1998. Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Private investment in LDCs: An Empirical Investigation. The World Bank Published.
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20- Serven L. 2002. Real Exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries. The World Bank Published.
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21- Serven L. 2003. Real Exchange rate Uncertainty and Private investment in LDCs. The review of Economics and Statistics 85(1): 21-212.
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22- Shin Y., Yu B., and Greenwood-Nimmo M.J. 2011. Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. Available at SSRN: http:ssrn.com.abstract=1807745 or http:dx.doi.org.10.2139.ssrn.1807745.
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23- Shin, Y., Yu B., and Greenwood-Nimmo M. 2014. Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York: 281-314.
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24- Schorderet Y. 2003. "Asymmetric Cointegration", University of Geneva
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25- Vincenzo A., Gianfranco Enrico A., and Pier Luigi B. 2003. Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty. Journal of Policy Modeling (25): 811-824.
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26- Zeira J. 1990. Cost Uncertainity and rate of investment. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (14): 53-63.
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
بررسی آثار تغییر اقلیم در مناطق نیمهخشک بر بازار محصولات کشاورزی
تغییر اقلیم در واقع تغییر برگشتناپذیر در متوسط شرایط آبوهوایی است. این پدیده دامنه زمانی و مکانی وسیعی دارد و به دنبال آن دامنۀ اثرگذاری گسترده بر بخشهای مختلف اقتصادی ازجمله منابع آب و کشاورزی خواهد داشت. قسمت عمدهای (77 درصد) از محصولات زراعی کشاورزی تولیدی کشور در مناطق نیمهخشک تولید میگردد و تغییرات اقلیمی میتواند بر تولیدات کشاورزی در این مناطق اثرگذار باشد. در این راستا، هدف مطالعهی حاضر بررسی آثار تغییر اقلیم در مناطق نیمهخشک، بر بازار (قیمت، درآمد، تولید، صادرات و واردات) محصولات کشاورزی کشور است. بهمنظور بررسی چالشهای ناشی از تغییرات آبوهوا از دیدگاه اقتصادی، رهیافتی که تصویری دقیق از بخش کشاورزی و روابط درون آن را فراهم کند، ضروری میباشد. به همین دلیل از الگو چندبازاره کشاورزی استفاده شده است. برای این منظور اقدام به پهنهبندی زیراقلیم نیمهخشک به روش دومارتن اصلاح شده گردید. همچنین جهت شبیهسازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم، عملکرد محصولات زراعی اعم از گندم آبی و دیم، جو آبی و دیم، و ذرت دانهای با استفاده از تغییرات دما و بارش و ضرایب پاسخ عملکرد، محاسبه شد. سپس تابع تقاضای محصولات مختلف با استفاده از کشش تابع تقاضا برآورد گردید. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که تا سال 2025 (افق 1404) تغییرات آبوهوایی، باعث تغییرات متفاوتی مانند تغییر در عملکرد، سطح زیرکشت و آب در دسترس در محصولات منتخب، میگردد که این امر باعث تغییر در قیمت این محصولات خواهد شد و اغلب قیمت آنها را افزایش میدهد. همچنین نتایج تحقیق نشان داد تغییرات صورت گرفته در محصولات باعث افزایش در درآمد بهرهبرداران کشاورزی شده و میزان خالص صادرات این محصولات را کاهش میدهد. در این راستا پیشنهاد میشود سیاست حمایتی قیمتی و غیر قیمتی مناسب برای حمایت از تولیدکنندگان و مصرفکنندگان این محصولات اتخاذ گردد تا آثار تغییرات اقلیمی بر بخش کشاورزی قابلکنترل و برنامهریزی گردد. همچنین تولید محصولات گندم دیم، جو آبی، جو دیم و ذرت دانهای در زیر اقلیمهای خشک گرم و خشک سرد و محصول گندم آبی در زیر اقلیم خشک گرم و محصولات گندم آبی، جو دیم و ذرت دانهای در زیراقلیم خشک معتدل افزایش یابد.
https://jead.um.ac.ir/article_35359_72856f0a3358740a9783c2dffd518eb2.pdf
2020-08-22
127
148
10.22067/jead2.v34i2.82775
ایران
بازار محصولات کشاورزی
پهنهبندی اقلیمی
تغییر اقلیم
مدل چند بازاره
حسن
علی بخشی
hali44477@gmail.com
1
دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
AUTHOR
آرش
دوراندیش
adourandish@gmail.com
2
دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
LEAD_AUTHOR
محمود
صبوحی
msabuhi39@yahoo.com
3
دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
AUTHOR
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9- Draji S.S., Golchin A., and Ahmadi Sh. 2010. The effect of different levels of superab A200 and soil salinity on water retention capacity in three sandy, loamy and clay textures. Soil and Water 24(2): 316-306. )In Persian)
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23- Momany C., and Zibaei M. 2013. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Fars Province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 27(3): 169-179. (In Persian)
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24- Mosaedi A., and Kahe M. 2008. Effect of Rainfall on Wheat and Barley Crop Yield in Golestan Province. Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources 15(4): 218-206. (In Persian)
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25- Norjou A. 2001. Investigation of the effect of different levels of irrigation on tomato farming. Proceedings of the First National Conference on Water Crisis Response Solutions, 18 and 19 March, University of Zabol. (In Persian)
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40- Mahjori K., Mohamad Rezaey R., Hagheghat J., and Ghahreman Azadeh M. 2010. Presenting Different Plans in Implementing Wheat Price Support Policy: A Case Study of Mazandaran Province. Journal of Economic Research and Policies 18(56): 135-161. (In Persian).
40
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
تعیین پرتفوی بهینه با مدلسازی ریسک سیستماتیک: شرکتهای صنایع غذایی منتخب بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
تعیین پرتفوی بهینه از مهمترین تصمیمات افراد سرمایهگذار در بورس میباشد. این مطالعه به دنبال تعیین پرتفوی بهینه از سهام شرکتهای صنایع غذایی با درنظر گرفتن ریسک سیستماتیک است. در این مطالعه از معیار EDH برای اندازهگیری ریسک سیستماتیک سهام هر یک از شرکتهای منتخب صنایع غذایی استفاده شده، سپس با استفاده از مدل فاکتور رابطهای که ورود ریسک سیستماتیک به مدل را امکانپذیر نماید، تعیین شد. دادههای مورد استفاده در این مطالعه شامل قیمت روزانه سهام شرکتهای صنایع غذایی و شاخص بازار برای سالهای 1398-1394 میباشند. همچنین متغیرهای نرخ ارز، قیمت جهانی طلا و قیمت جهانی نفت به عنوان عوامل موثر بر بازدهی سهام شرکتها در برآوردها مورد استفاده قرار گرفتند. نتایج پس از برآورد مدل با وجود ریسک سیستماتیک و مدل بدون در نظر گرفتن این ریسک نشان داد که بنابر انتظار درنظر گرفتن ریسک سیستماتیک سبب میشود پرتفوی به سمت انتخاب سهام شرکتهایی حرکت کند که کمترین تاثیرپذیری از شرایط بازار را دارند. همچنین بر اساس معیار EDH، شرکتهای صنعتی بهشهر، گلوکوزان، کالبر، مارگارین، پارس مینو، پگاه فارس و سالمین، EDH مثبت دارند و شرکتهای بیسکوییت گرجی، تولیدی مهرام، مینو شرق و پگاه آذربایجان، EDH منفی دارند. بر اساس نتایج پیشنهاد میگردد با توجه به اهمیت در نظر گرفتن ریسک سیستماتیک، سرمایهگذاران از معیار و مدلهایی استفاده نمایند که این بخش از ریسک را درنظر بگیرد.
https://jead.um.ac.ir/article_35369_7884fe7294b198b8824f6bfc1e6d883a.pdf
2020-08-22
149
161
10.22067/jead2.v34i2.84194
بورس اوراق بهادار
ریسک سیستماتیک
شرکتهای صنایع غذایی
مدل فاکتور
معیار پوشش ریسک نامطلوب حدی
فاطمه
مجتهدی
fateme.mojtahedi87@yahoo.com
1
دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
AUTHOR
سید مجتبی
مجاوریان
mmojaverian@yahoo.com
2
دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
AUTHOR
سید علی
حسینی یکانی
hosseiniyekani@gmail.com
3
دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
LEAD_AUTHOR
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3- Claußen A., Löhr S., Rösch D. and Scheulec H. 2017. Valuation of systematic risk in the cross-section of credit default swap spreads. Journal of the Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 64: 183-195.
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4- Davarzadeh M. 2007. Prediction of Pricing in Tehran Stock Exchange: An Approach to Technical Analysis. Master thesis, Faculty of Administrative and Economics, Isfahan University. (In Persian)
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7
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9
10- Hajiha Z., and Safari F. 2018. The Examination of Relationship between Stock Systematic Risk and Skewness of Returns. Journal of Asset Management and Financing 6(20): 1-10. (In Persian with English abstract)
10
11- Harris R.D.F., Linh H.N., and Evarist S. 2019. Systematic Extreme Downside Risk. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money. Accepted Manuscript.
11
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22- Saeedi A., and Ramsheh M. 2011. The Systematic Risk Determinants in Tehran Stock Exchange. Journal of Financial Accounting Research 1(7): 125-142. (In Persian with English abstract)
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25- Taghian Dinani Z., and Farid D. 2017. The Relationship between Excess Return of the Momentum Strategy and Systematic Risk in Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Management Perspective 16:9-30. (In Persian with English abstract)
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26- Tzang S.W., Wang C.W., and Yu M.T. 2016. Systematic Risk and Volatility Skew. Journal of International Review of Economics & Finance 43: 72-87.
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28- Vakilian aghouie M., Salehi M., and Nasserzadeh F. 2017. The impact of product market competition on earnings quality in Agriculture and food industry companies Tehran Stock Exchange. Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics 10(4): 55-79. (In Persian with English abstract)
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
کاربرد شبکه بیزین در بررسی تأثیر بهرهوری کشاورزی و محیط کسبوکار بر شاخص تولید غذا (امنیت غذایی) در ایران
امنیت غذایی، یکی از محورهای رشد و توسعه اقتصادی و از اهداف مهم هر کشور محسوب میشود. با توجه به اهمیت بخش کشاورزی در امنیت غذایی، در این مطالعه، با استفاده از شبکه بیزین به بررسی تأثیر بهرهوری کشاورزی و محیط کسب و کار بر شاخص تولید غذا در ایران در دوره زمانی 1381-1396 پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد متغیرهای بهرهوری کشاورزی و محیط کسب و کار تأثیر مثبت بر شاخص تولید غذا دارند. همچنین، نتایج تحلیل حساسیت شبکه بیزین نشان داد بیشترین متغیر تأثیرگذار بر شاخص تولید غذا، متغیر بهرهوری کشاورزی و پس از آن بهرهوری آب در بخش کشاورزی میباشد. بنابراین، اعمال سیاست هایی به منظور کاهش هزینه تولید، افزایش بهره وری تولیدکنندگان محصولات کشاورزی و تشویق سرمایه گذاری بخش خصوصی در بخش کشاورزی، میتوانند در جهت هدفمندسازی سیاست های حمایتی بخش کشاورزی در راستای امنیت غذایی مؤثر باشند.
https://jead.um.ac.ir/article_35380_581794a33ab67d73a513bd8d7e4e47d0.pdf
2020-08-22
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10.22067/jead2.v34i2.86033
امنیت غذایی
بهره وری کشاورزی
بهره وری آب
محیط کسب و کار
سمیه
نقوی
som_naghavi@yahoo.com
1
دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان
LEAD_AUTHOR
عباس
میرزایی
amirzaei@asnrukh.ac.ir
2
دانشگاه شیراز
AUTHOR
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36
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
تأثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز و قیمت نفت بر تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران: رویکرد منحنی J
نرخ ارز و قیمت نفت ازجمله متغیرهای مهم هر کشور، برای تجارت خارجی آن محسوب میشود. هر گونه تغییری در این متغیرها مناسبات اقتصادی و تجاری کشورها را دستخوش تغییر میکند. هدف مطالعهی حاضر بررسی تأثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز و قیمت نفت بر تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران با 8 کشور عمده شریک تجاری خود و سنجش وجود منحنی J در این کشورها بین سالهای 2017-1998 میباشد. بدین منظور، از دو الگوی ARDL خطی و غیرخطی استفاده گردید. یافتههای مطالعه موید آن است که مدل الگوی ARDL غیرخطی نتایج بهتری را ارایه مینماید. نتایج بیانگر آن است که یک رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرها وجود دارد. در بلندمدت در کشورهای عراق، چین، کره جنوبی و هند نوسانات افزایشی (کاهشی) نرخ ارز دوجانبه تاثیر مثبت (منفی) بر تراز تجاری ایران با این کشورها داشته است. در حالیکه در کشورهای، ترکیه، امارات، آلمان و افغانستان نوسانات افزایشی نرخ ارز تاثیر منفی بر تراز تجاری داشتند که این امر ممکن است به دلیل مناسبات سیاسی و اقتصادی این کشورها در تجارت با ایران باشد. براساس یافتههای مطالعه، وجود منحنی J در کشورهای هند و چین به اثبات رسیده است. همچنین نوسانات قیمت نفت در بلندمدت، در کشورهای ترکیه، افغانستان، آلمان و هند، اثری مثبت و معنیدار داشته و با افزایش نوسانات قیمت نفت تراز تجاری محصولات کشاورزی ایران با این کشورها بهبود یافته است. در مقابل در کشورهای عراق، امارات متحده، چین و کره با افزایش نوسانات قیمت نفت تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی بدتر شده است.
https://jead.um.ac.ir/article_35384_087b997a902b0d83845a4def93562b87.pdf
2020-08-22
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10.22067/jead2.v34i2.85637
نوسانات نرخ ارز
نوسانات قیمت نفت
ARDL غیرخطی
ARDL خطی
منحنی J
سمیرا
اسمعیلی
esmaili.samira91@yahoo.com
1
پیام نور واحد تهران شرق
AUTHOR
محمد
قهرمان زاده
ghahremanzadeh@tabrizu.ac.ir
2
دانشگاه تبریز
LEAD_AUTHOR
ابوالفضل
محمودی
abolfazl.mahmoodi@gmail.com
3
پیام نور واحد تهران شرق
AUTHOR
محسن
مهر ارا
mmehrara@ut.ac.ir
4
دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران
AUTHOR
غلامرضا
یاوری
gr.yavari@gmail.com
5
هیات علمی دانشگاه پیام نور تهران
AUTHOR
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12- Kazeroni E., Rezazadeh E., and Mohammadpor S. 2010. "Asymetric Effects Real Exchange Rate Instability on Nonoil Export: Nonlinear Markov Sweeching Aproach", Journal of Modeling Reaserch 5: 153-178. (In Persian)
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19- Pishbahr S., Rahimi J., Dashti G., and Gahramanzade M. 2015. The Effects of Agricultural Iinstability and Trade Fluctuations on Agricultural Sector Growth in Iran. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 46(2): 299-310. (In Persian)
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22- Ramezani A. 2016. The effect of factors on bilateral trade balance between Iran and India. First National Conference on New Approaches to Accounting and Management.
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23- Shokri A., Shahnoshi N., Mohammadzadeh R., and Azarinfar Y. 2003. Factors Affecting Investment in Iranian Agriculture Sector. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 1(2): 107-121.
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25- Samadi S., Yahya Abadi A., and Moalemi N. 2010. Analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. Journal of Research and Economic Policies 52: 5-26.
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26- Yazdani M., and Jangi R. 2017. Real exchange rate and consistent s & j curve Between Iran and top trading partners. Journal of Economics and Modeling Shahid Beheshti University 7(28): 31-53.
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27- Yazdani M., and Norafza T. 2015. Assessing the Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations and Production Gap on Trade Balance of Iranian Economy. Journal of Applied Economics 9(31): 22-40.
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28- Zhang Ch., Liu F., and Yu D. 2018. Dynamic Jumps in Global Oil Price and its Impacts on China's Bulk Commodities. Energy Economics 70: 297–306.
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
تحلیل اثر افزایش نرخ ارز بر قیمت تمام شده محصولات کشاورزی
نرخ ارز در ایران به ویژه در سالهای اخیر با روند افزایشی چشمگیری مواجه بوده است. از آنجا که بخش کشاورزی بخشی استراتژیک بوده و تأمین کننده اصلی غذای مردم کشور است، تحلیل آثار افزایش نرخ ارز بر قیمت تمام شده زیربخشهای آن بسیار حائز اهمیت است. در این راستا، در مطالعه حاضر، اثر افزایش نرخ ارز بر قیمت تمام شده تولید محصولات پنج زیربخش کشاورزی محاسبه شده است. به این منظور ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی ایران در سال 1390 تدوین شده و از الگوی قیمتی مبتنی بر این ماتریس بهره گرفته شده است. همچنین با استفاده از روش تجزیه ساختاری مسیر، عمدهترین مسیرهایی که از طریق آنها اثر افزایش نرخ ارز به زیربخشهای کشاورزی انتقال مییابد، مشخص شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد که قیمت محصولات زیر بخش دام و طیور، بیشتر از سایر زیر بخشهای کشاورزی تحت تأثیر افزایش نرخ ارز قرار میگیرد. نتایج تجزیه مسیر نیز بیانگر آن است که افزایش نرخ ارز در واردات بخش مواد و محصولات شیمیایی سهم عمدهای در انتقال اثر افزایش نرخ ارز به قیمت محصولات کشاورزی دارد. همچنین اثر افزایش نرخ ارز در بخشهای مختلف از طریق مسیرهای متفاوتی به قیمت محصولات کشاورزی منتقل میشود. لذا جهت کاهش اثر منفی شوکهای ارزی بر زیربخشهای کشاورزی، بسته به اینکه اثر از طریق چه بخشی و چه مسیری منتقل میشود، میتوان سیاستهایی نظیر اولویت در تخصیص ارز ترجیحی برای واردات محصولات بخشهای مؤثر، همچنین سیاست حمایت از نهادههای اولیه مورد استفاده در تولید محصولات کشاورزی نظیر پرداخت یارانه را پیشنهاد داد.
https://jead.um.ac.ir/article_35393_fdde9257f855cbce42922da3198da8dd.pdf
2020-08-22
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10.22067/jead2.v34i2.86055
تجزیه ساختاری مسیر
قیمت تمام شده
ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی
محصولات غذایی
نرخ ارز
زری
سرابی
sarabi.zari@yahoo.com
1
دانشگاه تهران
AUTHOR
وحیده
انصاری
ansari.vahideh@gmail.com
2
دانشگاه تهران
LEAD_AUTHOR
حبیب الله
سلامی
hsalami@ut.ac.ir
3
دانشگاه تهران
AUTHOR
سیدصفدر
حسینی
hoseini@ut.ac.ir
4
دانشگاه تهران- دانشکده کشاورزی کرج
AUTHOR
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21
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رشد اقتصادی ایران
شواهد نشان میدهد در دهههای آینده، تغییر اقلیم بهویژه کشورهای درحالتوسعه را با پیامدهای زیانبار مواجه خواهد نمود. با توجه به اهمیت پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم، این مطالعه با هدف تحلیل اثر این پدیده بر رشد اقتصادی ایران صورت گرفت. برای این منظور از الگوی رشد نئوکلاسیک سولو-سوان استفاده گردید. بهمنظور دستیابی به هدف مطالعه از دادههای سری-زمانی دوره 1395-1350 استفاده شد. متغیر بیانگر تغییر اقلیم در قالب تابع خسارت یا زیان در مدل رشد وارد شد که در آن خسارت تابعی از درجه حرارت میباشد. در مدل رشد افزون بر سرمایه فیزیکی انواع دیگر سرمایه شامل سرمایه انسانی، اجتماعی و زیستمحیطی نیز لحاظ شد. نتایج نشان داد در ازاء یک درجه سانتیگراد افزایش میانگین دما، انتظار میرود تولید به میزان 6/6-5 درصد کاهش یابد. کشش تولید نسبت به سرمایه فیزیکی بهعنوان مهمترین متغیر مساعدتکننده به تولید عمدتاً در حدود 16/0-08/0 محاسبه شد. دامنه متناظر برای سرمایه انسانی 06/0-02/0 و برای سرمایه اجتماعی 08/0-03/0 بهدست آمد، اما مساعدت سرمایه زیستمحیطی چندان حایز اهمیت نبود. اثر سرمایهگذاری خارجی بر رشد اقتصادی فاقد اهمیت آماری بود اما اثر مثبت شاخص بازبودن تجارت احراز گردید.
https://jead.um.ac.ir/article_35405_9029b274c836b577b305bc25a652422c.pdf
2020-08-22
223
238
10.22067/jead2.v34i2.86135
تغییر اقلیم
دما
سرمایه
مدل رشد سولو
زهرا
ملکوتی خواه
maryameghtesad.m@gmail.com
1
دانشگاه شیراز
AUTHOR
زکریا
فرج زاده
zakariafarajzadeh@gmail.com
2
دانشگاه شیراز
LEAD_AUTHOR
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