M. Jamalipour; M. Ghorbani; A.R. Koocheki
Abstract
Introduction: Human life on earth depends on temperature range control due to the effects of greenhouse gases. Earth atmosphere plays an important role to prevent the decrease of temperature. One of the principal factors of environmental pollution and the main source of earth climate and biodiversity ...
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Introduction: Human life on earth depends on temperature range control due to the effects of greenhouse gases. Earth atmosphere plays an important role to prevent the decrease of temperature. One of the principal factors of environmental pollution and the main source of earth climate and biodiversity changes is greenhouse gas emissions from various sources, particularly agricultural sector. Agriculture sector is a major source of greenhouse gas sequestration, including methane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, ammonia, and nitric oxide. One of the most important sub-sector of agriculture that produce greenhouse gases is agronomy. Nitrous oxide is one of the most important greenhouse gas and agriculture is the largest source. About 70 percent of N2O emitted into the atmosphere from soil, obtained from biomass. The total cultivation of oilseeds i.e. soybean, canola, corn for grain and other oilseeds, is equal to 534,132 hectares.
Materials and Methods: In this study to measure emissions of CO2 and N2O, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model (GHGEM) was used. This model was employed to estimate greenhouse gas emissions from activities directly and indirectly related to agriculture production and the effects of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To estimate the total production of N2O and CO2 in the agricultural ecosystem, 2011-12 crop year data reported by the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture has been used. In addition, the provinces divided into different classes based on the scale of production and emissions and their condition through means comparison test was examined.
Results and Discussion: The total amount of N2O and CO2 emissions from cereal crops including soybean, canola, corn for grain and other oilseeds was estimated. Khuzestan and Zanjan provinces, with an annual production 341.49 and 0.004 ton of N2O emission are the highest and lowest N2O producers, respectively. In addition, the Golestan and Hormozgan provinces respectively, with an annual production 7841.47 and 0.24 ton of CO2 have the highest and lowest annual production of CO2 emissions. Based on the results, Khuzestan province has the largest share of emissions from oilseeds. In other words, this province has about 26 percent of N2O and 24 percent of CO2 emissions. Total of N2O and CO2 emissions from the Iran’s oilseeds farms, was estimated equivalent 1330 and 32170 ton, respectively. However, Khuzestan with production equal 8183 tons of N2O and CO2 is the largest producers of greenhouse gas N2O and CO2 in Iran. Khuzestan province has the most environmental costs caused by N2O and CO2 emissions. The environmental cost of N2O and CO2 release in this province was estimated, approximately 16000 and 36290 US$ (or 0.552 and 1.252 billion rials), respectively. In other words, the Khuzestan province has the largest share of creation this pollution, with a share of about 25 percent of greenhouse gas emissions under review, caused by the production of such pollutants. Minimum environmental costs of N2O and CO2 emissions are to the Zanjan province. Total environmental costs of N2O and CO2 emissions was estimated about 211,333 US$ (7.291 billion rials).
Discussion: In this study, according to the agricultural activities diversity and greenhouse gas emission of these activities, it estimated the greenhouse gas emission CO2 and N2O from the oilseeds farms i.e. soybean, canola, corn for grain and other oilseeds, under the crop production. Results showed that the most important factor of N2O and CO2 emissions of the crops production activities is crops cultivation. However, due to the influence of variables such as the use of nitrogen fertilizers, crops residue remaining of products on the farms and annual fallow of N2O and CO2 emissions in production of oilseeds, using the modern farm management strategies, management and increase the efficiency of nitrogen fertilizers that use on the farms and development the emission reduction policies such as carbon sequestration was proposed to the decision makers. Cultivation of oilseeds is the main source of greenhouse gas of N2O and CO2 emissions, environment tax of greenhouse gas emission on level of production in compensation environmental costs due to the release of such pollutants can be useful.
M.M. Mozaffari; A. Parhizkari; M. Hoseini Khodadadi; R. Parhizkari
Abstract
Introduction: Greenhouse gases absorb the radiation reflected from the earth surface which would otherwise be sent back into space. The composition and mixture of these gases make life on earth possible. In recent years, human activity has affected both the composition and mixture of the atmosphere, ...
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Introduction: Greenhouse gases absorb the radiation reflected from the earth surface which would otherwise be sent back into space. The composition and mixture of these gases make life on earth possible. In recent years, human activity has affected both the composition and mixture of the atmosphere, modifying the climate. When climate changes, crop production is affected. There are many studies that consider the type and amount of production changes for particular crops, places and scenarios. Others attempt to expand knowledge about production changes and their impacts on economy and regional welfare. Climate change affects agriculture through direct and indirect affects i.e. temperature, and precipitation changes in the biological and physical environment. Restriction in water availability is one of the most dramatic consequences of climate change for the agricultural sector. Water availability is expected to be even more limited in the future. Scarcity of water is due to potential evapotranspiration increase. It is related to increase in air and earth surface temperatures. This phenomenon is important in low-precipitation seasons, and is even more severe in dry areas. The number of regions with loss of soil moisture is expected to increase, resulting in direct economic consequences on the production capacity. Considering the above decisions, the main objective of this paper is to integrate climate change into agricultural decision-making by using an Economic Modeling System to identify the impacts of climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural sector productions and available water resources in the down lands of the Taleghan Dam.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the effects of greenhouse gases on climate variables of temperature and precipitation under emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 were evaluated using time series data from 1981- 2008 and General Circulation Models (GCM). Then Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was used to survey the impacts of climate variables on the selected products yield. Changes in agricultural production, farmer’s gross profit and economic value of irrigation water were analyzed and compared with the base year by the regression analysis results in the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model. This methodology that was developed by Howitt (1995) to calibrate agricultural supply models has been used to link biophysical and economic information in an integrated biophysical and economic modeling framework and to assess the impacts of agricultural policies and scenarios. These models are also accepted for analyzing the impact of climate change and water resources management policies and scenarios. The PMP model used in this paper is a three-step procedure in which a non-linear cost function is calibrated to observe values of inputs usage in agricultural production. In the basic formulation, the first step is a linear program providing marginal values that are used in the second step to estimate the parameters for a non-linear cost function and a production function. In the third step, the calibrated production and cost functions are used in a non-linear optimization program. The solution to this non-linear program calibrates to observed values of production inputs and output. The required data in this paper were collected from meteorological stations and the relevant agencies in the Qazvin province. Regression functions estimated in Eviews software package and the PMP model were solved in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) software.
Results and Discussion: The results obtained in this paper showed that with emissions of greenhouse gases under the studied scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1), the average annual climate variables of temperature and precipitation changes from 1.64 to 2.28 °C and from20.92 to 1.1 mm, respectively. With these change, the yield of the most selected products decreases in the down lands of Taleghan Dam. Moreover, the obtained results showed that with emissions of greenhouse gases under the scenarios A1B, A2 and B1, the total acreage of the selected products changes from 2.18 to 4.09 percent. Total used water also decreases from 1.67 to 5.18 percent. Moreover, with emissions of greenhouse gas under the above scenarios total farmer’s gross profit decreases from 1.93 to 3.72 percent. However, the economic value of water increases from 4.27 to 13.6 percent in comparison with the base year.
Conclusion: In this study finally, in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the vicinity of the down lands of the Taleghan Dam, it is recommended that the government should use punitive tools (green complications) for polluting units and serve the private sectors in forestry projects in the vicinity of the industrial towns.
Keywords: Agricultural productions, Climate change, Greenhouse Gases, Positive Mathematical Programming, Taleghan Dam
