Agricultural Economics
F. Fathi; M. Behnam
Abstract
IntroductionThe growing virtual water trade globally reflects economic principles associated with international trade, particularly the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Each nation tends to export products that utilize relatively abundant and inexpensive production factors while importing those that necessitate ...
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IntroductionThe growing virtual water trade globally reflects economic principles associated with international trade, particularly the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Each nation tends to export products that utilize relatively abundant and inexpensive production factors while importing those that necessitate scarce and costly resources. The strategic use of virtual water in the management of water resources is a critical issue, mainly, considering that a significant portion of Iran experiences arid and semi-arid conditions, leading to severe and increasing water shortages. Among the agricultural products that Iran requires are oilseeds, such as soybean and sunflower, which the country produces and imports in substantial quantities annually. Materials and MethodsThe present study aims to assess the trend of importing virtual water from oilseeds through trade partners and determine the effects of economic and environmental factors influencing their import during 2005-2020, utilizing the generalized gravity model. Economic and trade variables such as the ratio of Iran's GDP to other countries, import tariff ratio, real exchange rate growth, country risk index, distance between countries, and sanctions are considered. Environmental variables such as area under cultivation, access to water, and lack of access to water per capita are also included. The variables related to access and lack of access to water consist of four environmental factors: total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal, and total freshwater volume. Results and DiscussionThe virtual water trading model is considered a scientific model and a practical solution to address the water shortage crisis in countries, especially Iran. In this research, through gravity models, the determinants affecting the volume of oilseed imports to Iran were identified. The variables of the ratio of Iran's GDP to the trading partner country and the access to water of the trading partner country were effective in both estimations, while the variable of the import tariff ratio was not effective in any of them. The risk variables of the countries have also been effective in importing virtual water. The variables of access to water and lack of access to water are environmental variables that influence the model, similar to economic variables. Therefore, the import of oilseeds is affected by economic variables; however, since the importation of oilseeds is supported to meet the country's needs and government currency has been utilized during the studied period, the variable of real exchange rate growth has less effect on imports. On the other hand, the variables of access and lack of access to water, which consist of four environmental factors (total water withdrawal, total renewable water, agricultural water withdrawal, and total freshwater volume), play an important role in the import of virtual water through oilseeds to Iran.The following suggestions can be made: Considering the significance of the variable distance between countries in the estimation, instead of meeting the demand for oilseeds from producers located at a large geographical distance, it is suggested to exchange these products with neighboring countries and regional markets if they are capable of producing these products. In other words, the Iranian government should accept the risk of importing oilseeds from neighboring and regional markets that are closer, rather than necessarily from the production hub. This may reduce the cost of importing this product by choosing these countries. Additionally, based on the role of the risk index, it is expected that countries with lower risk will be chosen as trading partners. Although the area under cultivation may be associated with a reduction in virtual water imports, considering the state of Iran's water resources and the need to import these two types of oilseeds, increasing the area under cultivation may not be feasible. Importing virtual water can play an important role in the sustainability of water resources while simultaneously meeting domestic needs. Based on the significance of access to and lack of access to water in the estimated relationships for soybean and sunflower production, certain countries have a relative advantage in cultivating these crops. Therefore, to enhance the management and sustainability of water resources, it is recommended to import from countries with greater water availability and higher production capacity. As a result, importing more virtual water supports the conservation of local water resources while ensuring the cultivation of these crops.
E. Pishbahar; P. Pakrooh; M. Ghahremanzadeh
Abstract
Introduction: Thepoultry industry, as sub-sectors of the agricultural sector,isone of the economic activities as considered risky and play a significant role in the public life of our community. The poultry industryin Iran has a bilateral relationship with global markets because on the one hand is exporters ...
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Introduction: Thepoultry industry, as sub-sectors of the agricultural sector,isone of the economic activities as considered risky and play a significant role in the public life of our community. The poultry industryin Iran has a bilateral relationship with global markets because on the one hand is exporters of agriculture production and on the other hand is a major importer of inputs such a cornandsoybean. So in terms of high transactions volume, poultry industriesare influenced by international prices and volatilities. Crude oil is one of the most important commodities in the global economyand in Iran has a comparative advantage that is seen as a strategic resource. A significant portion of Iran's revenue is from oil exports account and crude oil price. Therefore, oil prices in the world is an important factor that affecting the ability of our import volume. Recent observations show that the volatility and uncertainty in oil prices are transmitted through exchange rate (USD America) to real economic markets, other markets, the exchanges and the domestic agricultural and food products markets. This articleseems clearly impressive after Iraq-USA war in 2002 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2005. So in this paper, we try to analysis correlation between oil prices, exchange rates and the price of poultry inputs for the two periods, before the Global Financial Crisis and Iraq-USA war (1995-2004) and after that (2005-2014).
Material and Method: Theperiods ofstudy are pre and after the Iraq-USA war and the Global Financial Crisis. Our monthly data collected from the Central Bank of Iran, Animal Support Company since 1995 to 2014. For the purpose of this paper, we used Vine Copula-MGARCH approaches. Before everything at first, we controlled the stationary and seasonal unitroots behavior in data with ADF,KPSS and HEGY stationary and seasonal tests.After that for analysis the correlation of prices, we used MGARCH models for modeling volatilities and collecting the residual of equations. Because of the limitation in linear correlation coefficients and the advantages of copulas for modeling and analysis correlation, we used copula approaches for this sector. At first, we modeledvolatilities with kind of MGARCH models such as CCC and DCC GARCHes and after that for collection pure residuals we must eliminate the past effect of each variable or in other means we can tell, using ARMA with MGARCHmodel can give us residuals that have not any effect of past behaviors in variables.
Results and Discussion: The results of the ADF unit-root test has indicatedthat all variables are not stationary and accumulated from the first stages. Similarly, the KPSS unit root test has shownsuch as ADF test results. Based on these tests our variables are not stationary and in two periods of study and the first stage of a difference,they are accumulated. Seasonal unit root test or "HEGY test" results also showed there arenot seasonal behaviors in two periods of variables. After these tests for modeling volatilities at first, we needed to detect ARCH behaviors in variables. Because of that, we controlled ARCH effect behaviors in variables and for this aim, we use an ARCH-LM test. Detecting ARCH behaviors help us to use the kind of MGARCH models for modeling volatilities. Our results indicate that CCC and DCC models with ARMA model have flexibility for modeling. So after that examination, we have collected the residuals of equations and collected the residuals of each equationin ARIMA-CCC-MGARCH model. We calculated the correlation of oil price, exchange rate and input prices with kind of Vine-Copulas. Results of R-Vine, C-Vine and D-Vine models indicated that the correlation between oil price and exchange rate are different in two periods, as the positive correlation of oil and exchange rate, in the first period, change to a negative correlation in the second periods. Correlation of oil price and input pricesin second time are more than beforethe crisis. Clarke and Voung tests for choosing Vine models indicate that R-Vine models for after and before period are the best.
Conclusions: Based on R-Vine models our results indicated that correlation between oil price and input prices are more than before the crisis and this is not a suitable situation for Iran's industries. At last, we offer that, using oil incomes forincreased infrastructures of input productions it may be better than importing inputs.
A. Amjadi; H. Rafiee; N. Moghaddas
Abstract
According to amount of oil seeds import in Iran are more than 80% of domestic needs, in this study, import comparative advantage in soybeans using RCA and RSCA index is calculated in 1961-2008 periods for Iran and ten important importer countries. Iran’s Competition state is investigated. Also long ...
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According to amount of oil seeds import in Iran are more than 80% of domestic needs, in this study, import comparative advantage in soybeans using RCA and RSCA index is calculated in 1961-2008 periods for Iran and ten important importer countries. Iran’s Competition state is investigated. Also long run relation between production and import comparative advantage index is estimated using Johansen test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results show that Iran has import comparative advantage in soybean import, but shock effects on amount of this index, adjusted in more time than others. Therefore, exporter countries will have less willingness for export to Iran. In this aspect, importance of domestic production’s increase for domestic needs will be imperative. Also results showed that with increasing domestic production in long run, amount of Iran’s import comparative advantage will be decreased and therefore with decreasing import to country, less exchange will be out of our country.
